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Thread: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

  1. #1
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    Default House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    For the third year in a row there have been house price falls of over 12 % in Ireland.

    Since 2007, house prices have fallen by between 40% (outside Dublin) and 49%
    (Dublin).

    The market is so small now, and data so difficult to collect, that it is hard to know whether these figures can be relied on.

    http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/h...ly-518351.html

    Compared with other European countries, they are still relatively high.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The market is so small now, and data so difficult to collect, that it is hard to know whether these figures can be relied on.
    Indeed. There are thousands of houses on the market that cannot be sold at all. There are simply no buyers.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  3. #3

    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Mrs. O'Pericles was pointing out over lunch that if there is a no recourse mortgage bail out i.e. those in irredeemable arrears give back the house, lose any monies already paid, the house is sold and any difference is written off by the taxpayer..................then house prices have a good way to fall yet.

    They might reach their "real" value at some point which is about €150,000 approx. for an average house in Dublin or 5 times the AIW.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by SocratusO'Pericles View Post
    Mrs. O'Pericles was pointing out over lunch that if there is a no recourse mortgage bail out i.e. those in irredeemable arrears give back the house, lose any monies already paid, the house is sold and any difference is written off by the taxpayer..................then house prices have a good way to fall yet.

    They might reach their "real" value at some point which is about €150,000 approx. for an average house in Dublin or 5 times the AIW.
    If we were able to write it off, that would be great. Unfortunately, the lenders want every cent, plus interest, back.

    Good old hyperinflation would do something about it, too, but at a terrible price to those on pensions or other fixed incomes.

  5. #5

    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    If we were able to write it off, that would be great. Unfortunately, the lenders want every cent, plus interest, back.

    Good old hyperinflation would do something about it, too, but at a terrible price to those on pensions or other fixed incomes.
    It'll probably be written off at the individual level i.e. a kind of bankruptcy but the lending agencies will be paid out by the tyaxpayer.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by SocratusO'Pericles View Post
    It'll probably be written off at the individual level i.e. a kind of bankruptcy but the lending agencies will be paid out by the taxpayer.
    But paid out with what ? A lot of people have no additional disposable income to be taxed - some of them because they are paying out large mortgages.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    But paid out with what ? A lot of people have no additional disposable income to be taxed - some of them because they are paying out large mortgages.
    It will either come from more taxes - from the bottom earners because we need to widen the net dontcha know - or reduced public services which will again hammer the most vulnerable.

    Debt forgiveness isn't free. Ultimately it has to be paid for by kids who need SNAs or sick people paying higher monthly drugs payments or poor people who wont qualify for property tax waivers and so on.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post

    Debt forgiveness isn't free. Ultimately it has to be paid for by kids who need SNAs or sick people paying higher monthly drugs payments or poor people who wont qualify for property tax waivers and so on.
    Frankly, while I'd agree that straightforward bailouts are an invitation to moral hazard, I'm afraid they'll have to do something as I'd imagine that maybe 1/5 of mortgages are unpayable by their holders.

    That may be optimistic, since many are on 30 year terms and oil prices will go much much higher, causing knock on effects on unemployment.

    Many are currently handing houses back, or letting them, and emigrating.

    Don't forget that many of the people with the largest mortgages may also be those who are most employable abroad.

    This is a slo-mo car crash and it's been unavoidable since about 2003.

    In the long term the Government should have 3-4 aims; keeping the maximum no. of people housed, fed and employed, and improving energy security. Aiming beyond that may be impossible in the long term.

  9. #9

    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post
    It will either come from more taxes - from the bottom earners because we need to widen the net dontcha know - or reduced public services which will again hammer the most vulnerable.

    Debt forgiveness isn't free. Ultimately it has to be paid for by kids who need SNAs or sick people paying higher monthly drugs payments or poor people who wont qualify for property tax waivers and so on.
    I agree, the motgagage component that the individual borrower leaves behind will be picked up by the taxpayer.Taxes up and public services cut -seems to please our Masters.

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    House price falls very clearly presented by Namawinelake. Falls decrease collateral and contribute to economic contraction, irrespective of whether or not people want to sell.

    http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/20...-january-2012/

    How much does property now cost in Ireland? The CSO deliberately doesn’t produce average prices. The former PTSB/ESRI index did, and claimed the average price of a property nationally hit the peak in February 2007 at €313,998, inDublin in April 2007 at €431,016 and outsideDublin in January 2007 at €267,987. If, and it is a big “if”, you were to take PTSB/ESRI figures as sound and comparable to the CSO series, then these would be the average prices today:

    Nationally, €162,653 (peak €313,998)

    In Dublin, €186,827 (peak €431,016)

    Outside Dublin, €151,471 (peak €267,987)

    I don’t think the CSO would be happy with this approach but it seems to me that the PTSB/ESRI series as represented by its historical indices closely correlates with the performance of the CSO indices.

    What’s surprising about the latest release? Apartment prices nationally were down 4.3% in the month of January 2012. Prices inDublin took a battering again, with house prices down 4.1% in the month and apartment prices down 3.5%. Price drops outsideDublin continue to be more modest, with non-Dublin houses down by just 42.7% compared withDublin houses of 55.4%.

    Are prices still falling? Yes, and the 1.9% monthly decline nationally in January 2012 is up from the 1.7% decline in December 2011 and 1.5% decline in November 2011 but in the same range as the 2.2% decline in October 2011, the 1.5% decline in September 2011 and the 1.6% decline in August 2011.

    How far off the peak are we? Nationally 48.2% (49.8% in real terms as inflation has increased by 3.2% between February 2007 and January 2012). Interestingly, as revealed here,Northern Ireland is some 45.2% from peak in nominal terms and 52.6% off peak in real terms. Are forbearance measures by mortgage lenders, a draconian bankruptcy regime and NAMA’s (in)actions distorting the market? Or are cash transactions which are not captured by the CSO index so significant today that if they were captured, the decline in the Republic would be even greater?

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    Default Re: House Prices Down 12.5 % in the year to July

    But But But

    Sunday April 04 2010

    Finance Minister Brian Lenihan claimed yesterday that the residential property market will stabilise following the transfer of toxic debt from the banks to Nama -- and predicted that people will now begin to buy houses again.
    http://www.independent.ie/national-n...m-2124724.html
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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