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Thread: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage - Global Capitalism Running Out of Road

  1. #16
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Opened it again, warts and all.

  2. #17
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Thanks for the contributions, but I feel the need to bury this thread and start again. The OP is not up to the requirements of the day.
    We are on the verge of catastrope I think, or if not I think it is being postponed for a matter of just months or even weeks.
    The sheeple won't know whats hit them until it really does hit the fan. Slowly reality is dawning, but the spectre of whats about to happen is probably greater than anyone can envisage.
    Watch the Dollar go the way of BOI shares, and the Euro following not long after. No idea of what will replace it, but I've bought silver recently with a few quid I have put aside.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Financially we went through the Looking Glass some time ago. Hermann Rompuoy is apparently astonished at the markets ignoral of 'the fundamentals' whereas of course the markets see nothing but fundamentals which is why certain sections of the markets, hedgefund currency and bond speculators, are driving Italy and Spain to default territory.

    Why haven't Rompuoy, Merkel and Sarkozy banned short selling in the markets? The only good thing about all this is that this form of out of control and unregulated capitalism will destroy itself in the end because thats the logical end point- like a herd of stampeding cattle that will continue to run until it starts dying from exhaustion or runs right off a cliff with those at the front unable to halt because of the impetus of those behind.

    I've no doubt that some sort of de facto 'command economy' rather ironically will be arranged out of all this as a sort of pan European or pan Global NAMA. Mainly because the wealthy can't carry their money around with them so they need those long numbers attached to bank account numbers to be operational otherwise they sink immediately to the level of those who don't even have bank account numbers.

    And that would be unnatural. One can starve behind the gates of closed communities just as easily as in front of them.

    This gold bubble that has arisen is quite interesting. You can't carry it around with you because its too heavy if you have a lot of it. You can't eat it. It only has a value if you can convert it into a currency. If the system fails currency is useless.

    If the system fails then there's not much point in waving a piece of paper that entitles you to half a gold bar- because the bank where the gold bar is kept won't be open. If you do carry gold around with you and it has a value in a system that has failed a lot of formerly wealthy people will just have their gold taken off them at a conversion rate of one small piece of lead for all your gold.

    I'm convinced that the system won't be allowed to fail because the system is all there is between the rich and the rest of us.

    If the system won't be allowed to fail then the gold price at the moment is another enormous bubble.
    Think National. Act Local. Oh- and superstition is just the dark matter of human history.

  4. #19
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Con O'Sullivan View Post
    Financially we went through the Looking Glass some time ago. Hermann Rompuoy is apparently astonished at the markets ignoral of 'the fundamentals' whereas of course the markets see nothing but fundamentals which is why certain sections of the markets, hedgefund currency and bond speculators, are driving Italy and Spain to default territory.

    Why haven't Rompuoy, Merkel and Sarkozy banned short selling in the markets? The only good thing about all this is that this form of out of control and unregulated capitalism will destroy itself in the end because thats the logical end point- like a herd of stampeding cattle that will continue to run until it starts dying from exhaustion or runs right off a cliff with those at the front unable to halt because of the impetus of those behind.

    I've no doubt that some sort of de facto 'command economy' rather ironically will be arranged out of all this as a sort of pan European or pan Global NAMA. Mainly because the wealthy can't carry their money around with them so they need those long numbers attached to bank account numbers to be operational otherwise they sink immediately to the level of those who don't even have bank account numbers.

    And that would be unnatural. One can starve behind the gates of closed communities just as easily as in front of them.

    This gold bubble that has arisen is quite interesting. You can't carry it around with you because its too heavy if you have a lot of it. You can't eat it. It only has a value if you can convert it into a currency. If the system fails currency is useless.

    If the system fails then there's not much point in waving a piece of paper that entitles you to half a gold bar- because the bank where the gold bar is kept won't be open. If you do carry gold around with you and it has a value in a system that has failed a lot of formerly wealthy people will just have their gold taken off them at a conversion rate of one small piece of lead for all your gold.

    I'm convinced that the system won't be allowed to fail because the system is all there is between the rich and the rest of us.

    If the system won't be allowed to fail then the gold price at the moment is another enormous bubble.
    Currency is based on trust. People have trusted the Dollar & the Euro as a form of payment. But maybe the Dollar has been trusted 14 Trillion times too many worldwide. The Euro is worth whatever it is worth minus the debts of the PIIGS and others. It's the old DM and a few Francs thrown in.

    My guess is that the Dollar will collapse taking a few other currencies with them and the Euro will be devalued significantly but won't disappear.

    Some currency will survive to take the place of the dollar as you mentioned, but it will buy you a lot less precious metal than the dollar does at the moment. Those with money are converting to gold and will purchase the new preferred reserve currency when it emerges in due course.

    Interesting times

  5. #20
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Move to Cloughjordan, and join this !

    www.cloughjordancommunityfarm.ie

  6. #21
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by TotalMayhem View Post
    What do you mean? When the Euro was introduced, 1 Euro bought you like CHF 1.62, now it's almost par (CHF 1.08). Investors like the Swiss very much, or shall we say, their currency.

    And it's even worse regarding the US Dollar, in 2001, 1 US Dollar bought you CHF 1.82, today it's only CHF 0.76.
    Back up over 1.10 after the Swiss national bank intervened a little today with announcements and interest rate directions.

    thet are too scared to intervene directly as they lost billions earlier this year trying to help the currency

    Considers swiss franc to be massively overvalued at present
    Current strength of swiss franc is threatening development of the economy
    Current strength of swiss franc increasing the downside risks to price stability in Switzerland
    Narrowing target range for 3-month libor from 0.00-0.75% to 0.00-0.25%
    Aiming for a 3-month libor as close to zero as possible
    Will very significantly increase the supply of liquidity to the swiss franc money market over the next few days
    Intends to expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB from currently around CHF 30 bln to CHF 80 bln
    Will no longer renew repos and SNB bills that fall due and will repurchase outstanding SNB bills
    Since SNB’s last quarterly monetary policy assessment, the global economic outlook has worsened
    At the same time the appreciation of the swiss franc has accelerated sharply during last few weeks
    Consequently, the outlook for the swiss economy has deteriorated substantially
    Keeping a close watch on developments on the foreign exchange market
    Will take further measures against the strength of the swiss franc if necessary
    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...g-swiss-franc/
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  7. #22
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    Back up over 1.10 after the Swiss national bank intervened a little today with announcements and interest rate directions.

    thet are too scared to intervene directly as they lost billions earlier this year trying to help the currency



    http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2011/0...g-swiss-franc/
    Respite over..



    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swiss-...on-epic-fail-2
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  8. #23
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    Back up over 1.10 after the Swiss national bank intervened a little today with announcements and interest rate directions.
    The frame in which the Swiss can intervene is very narrow, mind you, they still have to redeem a certain percentage of their currency in gold, which saw a massive hike on the market today, almost $1,670 today, compared to $1,625 yesterday.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  9. #24
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Brian Lucy posted this earlier worth a read. Only 3 pages

    http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichen...ea_7-23-11.pdf

    Can the Euro Area Hit the Rewind Button?

    With benefit of hindsight, it is easy to conclude that Europe’s leap to monetary union was a mistake. Creating a single currency without also creating a single bank regulator, an emergency lender, and a credible set of fiscal rules gave Europe a common monetary house without a foundation. Europe acquired shiny coins and elegant banknotes but not the other elements of a workable monetary union. The need for these other elements may have been understood, but the national governments participating in the monetary union refused to cede sovereignty over their banking, financial and fiscal policies. Now they are paying the price.

  10. #25
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Debt-laden Italy is likely to default, but Spain might just avoid it, according to the British think-tank, the Centre for Economics and Business Research.

    With the countries weighed down by debt, the think tank modelled "good" and "bad" economic scenarios for both.

    It found that Italy will not avoid default unless it sees an unlikely big jump in economic growth.
    ...
    "Even if the cost of borrowing goes back down to 4%, the growth rate is so anaemic that we see the debt-GDP ratio remaining at 123% in 2018," said Doug McWilliams, the CEBR's chief executive.

    The conditions in Spain are better because its debt is much lower. Even under the "bad" scenario, Madrid's debt ratio would climb to no higher than 75% of national output.

    "Fingers crossed but there is a real chance that Spain may avoid default and debt restructuring, unless it gets dragged down by contagion," Mr McWilliams said.

    "Realistically, Italy is bound to default, but Spain may just get away without having to do so," he said.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14396557


    Now Here's Who Gets Smashed If Italy Goes Kaboom –

    Greek banks hold $700 million in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Portuguese banks own $5.2 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Belgian banks hold $25.8 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    American banks hold $36.7 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Japanese banks hold $40.6 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Dutch banks own $45.3 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Irish Banks hold $46 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    Spanish banks own $47 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    British banks own $77 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    German banks own $190 billion in Italian debt
    Source: NY Times, Reuters

    French banks own $511 billion in Italian debt
    That's 20% of France's GDP and more than two times as much as Greece owes everyone.
    Source: NY Times, Reuters
    We're bad, but France - Gulp!
    Last edited by yehbut_nobut; 03-08-2011 at 11:59 PM.

  11. #26
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by FIVE View Post
    Brian Lucy posted this earlier worth a read. Only 3 pages

    http://www.econ.berkeley.edu/~eichen...ea_7-23-11.pdf

    Can the Euro Area Hit the Rewind Button?
    This was all drearily obvious and predictable...

    The politicians and all their little helpers just can't stop their instinctive reaction. In times of crisis, find a way to meddle, interfere, Something Must Be Done....there's empires to build and jobs under political control to be created, get with the program, there is no alternative...blah blah blah.

    It was always the case when the euro was created in such a half-assed way that they were just itching for the first major crisis in order to ram through the other half of the project, which they knew they would never get past the electorates in any other fashion.

    It's the fundamental dishonesty of the Eurotrons going all the way back to Maastricht that turned me from agnostic to hostile on the entire deal. If it requires deceit lies manipulation and cover-up to advance its agenda then it can't be good.

  12. #27
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Has anyone read this guy? Great graph and explanations.

    http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2011/08/04...es-not-matter/

    It looks like Italy is the tipping point alright. That post above showing such French exposure, and Belgian/Dutch means that the eurozone... won't be able to survive an Italian bailout.

    Will the solution be a referendum in October handing fiscal powers to a new EU treasury+creating ECB eurobonds? Is there any other solution?

    Perhaps a continuation of the pattern would be a World Financial Stability Fund..!
    "Fascinating, watching the world act as though it still had a financial system. Using the toilet, when the pipes are gone." - some guy on twitter

  13. #28
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by yehbut_nobut View Post

    Using the information provided, by my calculation, Ireland would seem to be THE MOST EXPOSED country to Italian debt relative to GDP and size of tax bases. France is on the hook for about 11 times the amount Ireland is, but has a population about 14 times the size of Ireland. The least exposed countries are the ones that come before Ireland in the table. All have larger populations. Portugal with nearly three times the population only has only one ninth of the exposure, so they are 25-27 times better off than Ireland. USA with 70 times the population of Ireland is on the hook for less. And, unlike in other countries, where the taxpayer does not own the banks to anything like the same degree, The Irish taxpayer owns……….

    I’ve noted before, that in my view Business Insider is not a reliable source of quality information. They are the Sun/NOTW of biz info. If they were any good they’d have given the simple analysis I just did. They are an aggregator just like HuffPo.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #29
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    This was all drearily obvious and predictable...

    The politicians and all their little helpers just can't stop their instinctive reaction. In times of crisis, find a way to meddle, interfere, Something Must Be Done....there's empires to build and jobs under political control to be created, get with the program, there is no alternative...blah blah blah.

    It was always the case when the euro was created in such a half-assed way that they were just itching for the first major crisis in order to ram through the other half of the project, which they knew they would never get past the electorates in any other fashion.

    It's the fundamental dishonesty of the Eurotrons going all the way back to Maastricht that turned me from agnostic to hostile on the entire deal. If it requires deceit lies manipulation and cover-up to advance its agenda then it can't be good.
    Yes, the thin end of the wedge has got progressively thicker.

    I think the EFSF was a spoof, originally, like the Irish Bank Guarantee and the participants didn't expect to actually have to pay up. I said so at the time. Yanis V.'s article also says as much. Like the Irish Guarantee, if implemented the EFSF would wipe the participants out. Yanis V. wants a Eurobond and I hear Philip Lane saying European debt was "manageable" if shared around Europe. He seems to live in a bubble and have no notion of politics and he cost to peoples' lives. The German working and middle classes took a hit on their living standards 10 years ago. They will not be happy to pay off other peoples' debt. An economic union of Europe, without an equal social and political union, would be a disaster, liable to fracture. Given that the EU project was one entered into by separate capitalist states, all wanting to benefit themselves at others expense and to jointly knock back the rights and benefits gained post war by social democracy and trade unionism, that isn't going to happen. Yanis' eurobond just seems to be a bigger, better, Guarantee, that doesn't anwer the problem of the debt.

    The US debt is now becoming a real problem, with China getting very jumpy about the potential for the collapse of the dollar. Other countries, who have healthier economies so far, are now panicking about hot money seeking a refuge in their currency, driving it up and making their exports unaffordable. The indebted, bankrupt countries are trying to restore value to their economies by cutting social spending and wage cutting, driving up the rate of exploitation of people working. This is simply not working, but making indebtedness worse.

    It is a situation with a risk of war in it, downstream. The alternative is simply to stop playing the profit game and to make stuff for use, in planned economies with fair trade agreements.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 04-08-2011 at 04:19 AM.

  15. #30
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    Default Re: "Full Fledged Panic" - World Economic Crisis Moving to a New Stage

    If Ireland's banks are exposed to Italian debt alone at 48billion then I wonder what exposure Irish banks carrying in the other large and medium sized economies.

    Also it occurs to me that this is a heavy clue that Irish banks have been trading way beyond their rational or permitted liquidity ratios.

    If this sort of debt held by Irish banks is replicated around Europe then by definition the banks have obviously and historically been trading way beyond their capability to absorb losses.
    Think National. Act Local. Oh- and superstition is just the dark matter of human history.

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