Syria - Opposition Organises against Assad

[C. Flower]

More firing on Turkish search and rescue craft, reportedly. Assad must be desperate for a distraction for the population.

Meanwhile, there have been a good number of high level army defections from the regime in the last day.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/syr...ey-556649.html

[riposte]

NATO backs down..proposes no action.

Ambassadors of NATO's 28 member states met in Brussels to consult with Turkey on Friday's incident.

NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said NATO security was "indivisible".

However, he said NATO's Article 5, which calls for member states to see an attack on one country as an attack on all the alliance's members, had not been discussed.

[C. Flower]

A Syrian dissident writing in the US gives a fairly convincing description of how Assad is playing the sectarian card, isolating Alawites from the uprising, which covers much of the country, and compares Syria to Yugoslavia as it broke up.

This writer is pro-intervention, along the lines of NATO in Yugoslavia. He believes that the problem is lack of a leadership determined to move forward towards a non-sectarian state.

http://www.tampabay.com/opinion/colu...-slide/1237722

[C. Flower]

The sheer arrogance of the big powers expressed through Kofi Annan of the UN, organising conferences with the intention of deciding the political future of Syria, while excluding the Syrian opposition in favour of their own favoured ex pats, is outrageous. Neither side want the "solutions" coming out of these diplomatic manoeverings.

Michael Jansen in the Irish Times is writing reports on Syria that shed a bit more light than most, and has pointed out the exclusion of the on-the-ground Syrian opposition from so called peace processes. He appears to be genuinely trying to be neutral.
Although there is a contradiction between his reminders that both sides accuse each other of inventing stories for propoganda purposes, and his citing as fact events which he did not view first hand.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...319264396.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...319179510.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...311610535.html

Jansen also correctly reports that the roots of the uprising were economic, not sectarian.

AN ECONOMY IN REVERSE


Syrians agree that nearly a year of unrest has largely reversed the gains the country made during the economic liberalisation programme launched by the government in 2004-05. During this period Syria’s Soviet-style command economy was transformed into a “social market” system, designed to provide a safety net for the poor and lower middle class while opening Syria’s doors to foreign banks, investment, trade and tourism, effecting a rapid transformation of a country that had shunned the world. Luxury hotels sprouted up in Damascus and Aleppo, western designer clothing shops proliferated, ATMs were planted on street corners and new foreign-manufactured cars filled the streets.

But the safety net did not materialise, prompting protests by have-nots against the haves that have turned into an armed rebellion demanding “regime change.” Now, women carrying bundled babies, and children with filthy faces and tattered jerseys beg in the streets. Sanctions imposed by the international community are stripping bare the cupboards of poor and middle-class folk but not harming the rich and powerful.

[fluffybiscuits]

http://www.thejournal.ie/wikileaks-s...11285-Jul2012/

Wikileaks have released a number of files for viewing on the whole Syria affair . The files can be viewed here ..

http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/

[riposte]

Despite the fact that parties on both sides of the conflict in Syria have been responsible for violence, the international NATO-aligned media has hyped often dubious accusations of Assad-sponsored massacres while virtually ignoring massacres, beheadings and other acts of brutality carried out by rebel insurgents.

Whereas the establishment media, particularly the likes of CNN and the London Guardian, have prostrated themselves as 24-hour rolling propaganda platforms for anonymous “activists” with Twitter accounts, showcasing unverified You Tube clips of alleged atrocities, equally disturbing footage of rebels committing acts of savagery have been buried.

http://www.infowars.com/shocking-vid...edom-fighters/

[C. Flower]

Via Wikileaks

MEMORANDUM

TO: Fares Kallas

FROM: Brown Lloyd James

RE: Crisis Communications Analysis



It is clear from US government pronouncements since the beginning of the public demonstrations in Syria that the Obama Administration wants the leadership in Syria to survive. Unlike its response to demonstrations in some other countries in the region, there have been no US demands for regime change in Syria nor any calls for military intervention, criticism has been relatively muted and punitive sanctions—by not being aimed directly at President Assad--have been intended more as a caution than as an instrument to hurt the leadership.

However, the tone of the Administration’s statements has grown noticeably harsher in recent weeks and may be nearing a tipping point that could make a reassessment of the US position towards Syria inevitable. One potential bellwether of this shift is the transformation in the public statements of US Senator John Kerry, the Administration’s de facto point man on outreach to Syria. Senator Kerry has begun to publicly backtrack his often-repeated confidence in the leadership’s ability to reform.

Media coverage of the situation in Syria has tracked with the Administration’s political arc. US media coverage of events in Syria was initially marginal, but has since moved closer to the front of the newspaper and the top of the broadcast news. This not only reinforces the Administration’s change of tone, it is emboldening critics--who maintain that Syria's reform efforts are not sincere--and building up pressure on the US government to take further, more drastic steps against the country.

Assessment of Syria’s Communications:
Strategically, Syria has had an imbalance in its communications approach since the beginning of the crisis. If hard power is necessary to quell rebellion, soft power is needed to reassure the Syrian people and outside audiences that reform is proceeding apace, legitimate grievances are being addressed and taken seriously, and that Syria’s actions are ultimately aimed at creating an environment in which change and progress can take place.

No one within the leadership seems to “own” the reform agenda from a communications standpoint. Beyond the government reshuffle and the President’s two dramatic speeches, reform has taken a back seat to the immediate political crisis, which dominates headlines and the public’s perception of events. Domestically, This may result in a situation in which the demonstrators have been sent back to their houses, but predominantly out of fear rather than conviction that their government is responsive to their concerns—a recipe for restiveness and instability going forward. Here in the US and the west, the imbalance will embolden critics and reinforce those who don’t believe reform is sincere.



Recommendations:
Syria seems to be communicating with two hands. One is offering reform and the other, rule of law. Rule of law is a fist. Reform is an open hand. Right now the fist appears to the outside world, and probably to many Syrians, as though it is ten times bigger than the outstretched palm. They must be brought into better balance.

Reform-oriented outreach must be dramatically improved, at home and abroad, or else the credibility of these efforts—and a key part of the President’s appeal and popularity among the people—will be diminished. Refocusing the perception of outsiders and Syrians on reform will provide political cover to the generally sympathetic US Government, and will delegitimize critics at home and abroad.

In our view, the President needs to communicate more often and with more finely-tuned messaging and the First Lady needs to get in the game. The absence of a public figure as popular, capable, and attuned to the hopes of the people as Her Excellency at such a critical moment is conspicuous. The key is to show strength and sympathy at once.

The “reform” program does not yet have a face or brand. A public, visible campaign should be launched, even while the crisis continues, to engage ordinary Syrians in reform. This will keep people focused on the future and remind Syrians and the world of the President’s hopes and expectations for the country.

The campaign should deploy street teams in communities to poll citizens on their reform priorities and ideas; each team member can post their experiences online or on social media to create a cross current to the criticisms that dominate those mediums.
This campaign should include a listening tour w FL and PR together. They can make unannounced stops that carefully engage families and young people.
The campaign should create a reform “echo-chamber” by developing media coverage outside of Syria that points to the President’s difficult task of wanting reform, but conducted in an non-chaotic, rational way. The conditions for reform include peace and stability. These stories can be developed through direct interviews with the President and other senior advisors, op-ed and commentary articles written by credible third parties. This coverage will rebound into Syria.
The campaign should be branded with a forward-looking title, such as “Syria al-Yaum, Syria Bukra.”

Communications can also be improved on the security side. President Assad has ordered investigations into troops and security forces that defied his command not to fire on unarmed civilians. The leadership should make a very public, visible show of punishing/firing/indicting troops that violate his orders. It would be a way of unequivocally showing that anyone who breaks the law--whether they be demonstrators or soldiers--will be held accountable. It will also demonstrate his fairness and his committment that his objective is to restore calm and civility so that reform can take place.

Syria must improve its ability to contain negative media stories circulated by opposition figures living outside Syria. This includes countering rumors (such as the recent example that stated Her Excellency has “left Syria for London”) and the daily torrent of criticism and lies. Such a professionalized, through capability would include:

24-hour media monitoring and response system should be in place with assets in UK and US markets.
Social media sites should be monitored and false sites should be challenged and removed.
A steady, constantly updated messaging document that contains talking points geared to latest developments.

Efforts should be made to convey “normalcy” and a contrast to current news depicting Syria as being on the verge of chaos.
Structure:
A crisis communications structure should be developed to help manage daily communications. Daily messages, statements and press releases should be developed by this team and disseminated worldwide.

Messaging:
As suggested above, messaging should be evaluated on a daily-basis. From a general standpoint, Syria should:

Continue to stress that the majority of its people have legitimate grievances that the leadership wants to address. However, appeal to Syrians’ patriotism and emphasize that there is no need to destroy the country to achieve goals that everyone shares: a free and prosperous country.
Acknowledge that the violence taking place is regrettable. But the leadership did not seek this. The leadership is obligated to protect Syria and to create the conditions of calm necessary for reform to take place.
Continue to express confidence in the future, and that the crisis is waning.

http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/doc...nications.html

The Washington Post explains, up to a point, who the authors (Brown Llloyd James) are.

Described as giving PR advice to Assad, but to my mind advising use of simultaneous hard and soft force against the political opposition goes a very long way beyond PR.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...BWSW_blog.html


Fares Kallas is Asma al-Assad's advisor/media advisor

[riposte]

Via Wikileaks




http://wikileaks.org/syria-files/doc...nications.html

The Washington Post explains, up to a point, who the authors (Brown Llloyd James) are.

Described as giving PR advice to Assad, but to my mind advising use of simultaneous hard and soft force against the political opposition goes a very long way beyond PR.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...BWSW_blog.html


Fares Kallas is Asma al-Assad's advisor/media advisor

Fabricated rubbish ...... the sooner they put Julian in jail for sex offences the better.

[C. Flower]

Fabricated rubbish ...... the sooner they put Julian in jail for sex offences the better.

Wikileaks is a mess. The first file I looked at was a set of profiles and photos of young Syrians with Down Syndrome who were taking part in some kind of charitable initiative, with no explanation of context.

The way the files have been disseminated (and withheld) has been bizarre.

That doesn't mean that the files themselves are inauthentic.

Which part of that do you think is fabricated?

[riposte]

Wikileaks is a mess. The first file I looked at was a set of profiles and photos of young Syrians with Down Syndrome who were taking part in some kind of charitable initiative, with no explanation of context.

The way the files have been disseminated (and withheld) has been bizarre.

That doesn't mean that the files themselves are inauthentic.

Which part of that do you think is fabricated?

Cactus ......Wikileaks is an outsourced CIA black-ops phenomenon ...... the idea that the US wants Assad to survive ......in the wake of Hilary Clinton's attack on Russia and China in the last 24 hours would require you to stand on your head and whistle Dixie.

[C. Flower]

Cactus ......Wikileaks is an outsourced CIA black-ops phenomenon ...... the idea that the US wants Assad to survive ......in the wake of Hilary Clinton's attack on Russia and China in the last 24 hours would require you to stand on your head and whistle Dixie.

That's a possibility I've considered. If it is, it is not particularly effective.

The cables are low level stuff, but have given a good picture of that low level interaction between the US and their global friends and supporters.

[riposte]

That's a possibility I've considered. If it is, it is not particularly effective.

The cables are low level stuff, but have given a good picture of that low level interaction between the US and their global friends and supporters.

The day that they reveal anything of any significance about Israel is the day that they will gain credibility.

They have published information that was damaging to relationships between India and Pakistan ....... and to the Irish "left."

Who knows the mind of the CIA?

[C. Flower]

The day that reveal they anything of any significance about Israel is the day that they will gain credibility.

They have published information that was damaging to relationships between India and Pakistan ....... and to the Irish "left."

Who knows the mind of the CIA?

What was damaging to the Irish left? Surely not the Gilmore cable?

It was open to Gilmore to issue a clear denial/refutation, and he hasn't.

[riposte]

What was damaging to the Irish left? Surely not the Gilmore cable?

It was open to Gilmore to issue a clear denial/refutation, and he hasn't.

Yeah ..... the Gilmore cable ........ and he didn't deny it..... so that's true ....... doesn't follow that everything in the "leaks" are true ...... obviously ..... some of it has to be true if it is to fool anybody. The "leaks" are an ideal way to fight a propaganda war.... with "plausible deniaibility."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plausible_deniability

[Ephilant]

Now it is time to worry.
Local stations report that 2 russian warships, the CAESAR KUNIKOV and the NIKOLAI FILCHENKOV, accompanied by 2 tugboats have entered the Aegean Sea, heading for Syria. they are currently South of Imvros island.

The Russian warships carry units from some of the most elite Russian land formations, from the 431 Battalion VMF (some of its units are already in Syria since February), the 76th Airborne Division «Pskov», the 15th Brigade, units of the GRU from the Caucasus, specialized to deal with Islamic terrorists, and some Black Sea Marine units (defencenet)

there are also reports of the Russian destroyer SMETLIVY having left Sevastopol, heading for Syria.

russia has not offered any explanation for this secret mission. the ships are being shadowed by the Greek Navy.