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Thread: US Presidential Election 2016

  1. #1
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    Default US Presidential Election 2016

    This board had it first. Forget 2012, 2016 has already begun

    The email copied below is a virtual reprint of the May 24 Irish Times article cited at bottom. Here is some additional reporting, analysis, opinion, speculatin, and other high quality BS.

    Marlyand Governor Martin O’Malley, a rising Democratic star, is currently Chairman of the Democratic Governor’s Association. He is also current US Leprechaun-in-Chief. He mailed the following to an apparently discrete group of potential supporters, specifically, African Americans. The Countess, who is AA received it, I did not. Motive, raise the profile of a white guy in the AA community.

    On the assumption that Obama wins in 2012, (currently more likely than not),
    then 2016, will be every bit as contentious as 2008. Open primaries on both sides simultaneously, are generally a rarity. In January 2015 O’Malley will be term limited out of office, just in time to start running for Presidential 2016.

    Purpose of this mail, is to send it to the AA community in 2011, so that he can re-send it in 2016, to remind that he first sent it in 2011. The road to the White House is long and twishty. Within two to three months of the 2012 Inauguration C-SPAN will begin broadcasting a series of programs that follow politicians who are doing things that suggest they are contemplating a run. They follow those on the rubber chicken circuit etc.

    O’Malley appointed his existing gubernatorial aide, UCD grad Colm O’Comartun to be Chief of Staff at the Democratic Governors Association. Did a quick google search on O’Comartun but drew a blank. Anyone know anything about him?

    With the demise of other Irish American pols O’Malley is among the brightest of the Democratic contenders, but he will not be alone or automatic. Here are some who might challenge him for the Democrtic nomination in 2016

    Andrew Cuomo, Tim Kaine, Jim Webb, Cory Booker, Deval Patrick, Elliot Spitzer, Michael Bloomberg, Christine Gregoire, Kathleen Sebelius, Janet Napolitano, Chuck Schumer, Anthony Weiner, Steve Isreal, Rahm Emmanuel, Bill Richardsson Evan Bayh Chris Van Hollen, Jesse Jackson Jr. Oh, and I nearly forgot, Donald Trump.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_O%27Malley

    http://www.democraticgovernors.org/home

    http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Martin_O%27Malley

    He has a Celtic Rock band called O’Malley’s March, but their web page is not loading at the moment. He is a big fan of the Saw Doctors. They have played at both his Inaugurations. Here is what he mailed.

    Subject: Irish and African Americans Changed US History



    This is a must read. As President Obama returns from his trip to Ireland, Governor O'Malley reflects on the relationship between the Irish and African Americans and how it altered the United State's history.
    Irish and African Americans Changed US History
    By Martin O'Malley
    AS BARACK Obama visits Ireland for the first time as president, I am reminded of a simple gesture of kindness that altered the course of American history.

    In October 1960, Dr Martin Luther King jnr was roused from bed in the middle of the night on trivial charges stemming from his protests against racial segregation. King was denied bail and sentenced to four months of hard labour in a Georgia prison camp, which many feared he might not survive, either by lynching or by a convenient “accident”. This was not, on the turbulent surface of the times, John Fitzgerald Kennedy’s problem. The Massachusetts senator was locked in a close race for the White House. If he had any chance to win, he needed to keep the support of white Southern Democrats – Southern Democrats who, for the most part, hated everything that Martin Luther King stood for.
    Yet JFK, without a flicker of cynicism, picked up the phone and called King’s pregnant wife, Coretta, offering her comfort and his help. When Kennedy’s campaign managers found out, they were livid and figured it a thoughtless act that could well cost the election.
    But empathy is a powerful energy in the art of politics. It is a signpost of deep character. And it is this depth of character that has been displayed for a couple of centuries by generations of African Americans and Irish Americans – two people, deeply and properly linked.
    On that day, in 1960, Kennedy linked with King. The signal was clear: the civil rights movement would have a powerful ally with Kennedy in the White House. And the African American community responded by providing the votes needed to elect the first Irish Catholic president. The course of history changed. Black merged green and green merged black.
    Irish-Americans and African-Americans dropped their hyphens . . . and once again became one.
    Civil rights was not an impossible dream. Thousands of brave African Americans stepped forward to make it happen. And with their Irish American public servant in the White House, they changed the course of the United States.
    Over the centuries, both cultures have known deep abiding pain and cruelty – a racial suffering played out at the hands of governments and, indeed, fellow countrymen. “The arc of the moral universe is long,” said Dr King, “but it bends towards justice.” He and countless others, believed in the dignity of the individual, and the possibilities of hope. The most fearless hearts, the audacious dreamers, have always maintained a sense of optimism that often flies in the face of the available evidence.
    During the American Revolution of the 1770s, “green” and “black” fought alongside each other for a fledgling, imperfect nation. When the citizens of Baltimore banded together to repel the British during the War of 1812, three in five were immigrants, and one in five was black – some were free, some slaves. The defence of Baltimore inspired Francis Scott Key to write what would come to be called, The Star-Spangled Banner, our national anthem, a gallant streaming of unity over the ramparts of race.
    Yet Baltimore was still a place that slaves such as Frederick Douglass had to flee to gain their freedom. When Douglass published his autobiography, fugitive slave laws made it unsafe for him to stay in America. He travelled to Ireland by ship, confined to steerage class below-deck, as part of a two-year lecture tour around Britain and Ireland. He found, in his words, “a total absence of all manifestations of prejudice against me, on account of my colour”. He wrote home, “I seem to have undergone a transformation, I live a new life.” From Daniel O’Connell, the Great Liberator, Douglass would see first-hand the power of nonviolent resistance in Catholic Emancipation – a lesson that helped shape generations of American civil rights activists.
    The hardships that Douglass witnessed at the start of the Great Famine served as a preview of the Irish and African American experience. There were occasions when the cultures clashed (as in the 1863 draft riots in New York City), but it was a clash of people who could recognise each other’s desires. Together, they worked the most dangerous and back-breaking jobs. Together, they built from muscle, music and dream the land that would become a reflection of themselves.
    Both cultures made the cities, built their homes, lived in close quarters, stretched every cent they could save. They became Americans and still managed to honour where they came from. When duty and patriotism called, they gave their heroics to a country not always kind to them.
    The links are myriad: music, poetry, language, exile, loss, humour, beauty, even the trenchant practice of politics.
    In an Oval Office address, Kennedy called the cause of civil rights “a moral issue, as old as the scriptures, and as clear as the constitution”. To those who would keep the codes of the past and argue that segregation was tolerable, he asked who would volunteer to have his skin colour changed and be discriminated against. And it was 50 years ago this month that Kennedy’s younger brother, Robert, publicly predicted an African American could be elected president within the next 40 years. He cited the election of an Irish Catholic president to prove the point that bigotry could be overcome.
    It may seem quaint now, but it was audacious then.
    Two months later, a baby boy named Barack Obama was born in Hawaii. His mother told him he could be president one day.
    She was right."
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...297636768.html
    For daily updates from Governor O'Malley, be sure to like his Facebook page and follow him on twitter.
    Thanks for your continued friendship and support,

    O'Malley-Brown Team

  2. #2
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    What about 2024?

  3. #3
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Is it true that US presidents can implement their policies in their second terms where they have to keep their mouths shut in the first term?
    If so, we should see some action from Obama as in his first term he has done little but raise the standard of political rhetoric.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Binn Beal View Post
    Is it true that US presidents can implement their policies in their second terms where they have to keep their mouths shut in the first term?
    It's a natural consequence of term limits.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    BB, unsurprisingly, you got a bad, and wrong, response @4 to your fair question @3.
    The ability of US Presidents to pass law reflecting their policy priorities has nothing to do with term limits, and everything to do with election cycles.

    Here’s the substantive answer to your question.
    .
    US Presidents may be lucky and able to implement some of their policies, or unlucky and unable to implement much. The key determinative is whether the President’s party controls none, one, or both houses of Congress. The US system is different from the European Parliamentary one. The European systems generally have two branches of Government. The Executive/ Legislative, or Parliamentary branch, plus the Judicial branch. The US divides those two into three. The doctrine of “separation of powers” as between three co-equal branches of government, Executive/Legislative/ Judicial is very important. Less distinction as between Executive/Legislative in Europe. In the US the Cabinet rarely ever meets. Cabinet Secretaries (Ministers) never stand up in Parliament (Congress) to announce new initiatives, rather, they go testify before Congress to report on progress or lack thereof.

    President can only propose laws, only Congress can propose and write laws, Supreme Court gets to say what the laws actually mean.

    Typically, the first two years of a first Presidential term consist of an attempt to pass big priority legislation, and we had that in 09/10. Second two years less so, as President gears up for re-election. In second term, big push again in first two years, then President is referred to as a “lame duck”.

    Reason is, by design, everyone is on a different election cycle. All Congressional Reps are up for re-election every two years, Presidents every four years, and “staggered” Senators every six years. One third of the Senate is up for re-election every two years. So, a President who is either on the second two years of his first term or second term may find it very difficult to get support for his proposals from many in his own party who are seeking re-election.

    The system is designed to make it difficult to make changes, so that when changes are made, they are done with the broadest support possible.

    Here’s a list of 400 plus pieces of legislation signed by Obama. That’s about one a weekday, since he took office, and reflects the output of Congress. If Congress doesn’t pass, President can’t sign or veto. A lot of it is mundane, but there is some big stuff there too.

    http://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-r...ed-legislation

    Did a quick search here, but could not find any comparable info.

    http://www.oireachtas.ie/parliament/...lslegislation/

  6. #6
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Hey, It’s not just me. US political time horizons are just longer. Lot’s of people are already discussing 2016.

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/56009.html

  7. #7
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Just to prove I’m not the only one thinking about 2016

    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0611/57765.html

  8. #8
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Elizabeth Warren is the hottest ticket (in more ways than one), on the left of US politics today.

    http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal...g-attendan.php


    http://www.salon.com/2011/11/15/eliz...ouse_prospect/
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    O'Malley and Cuomo are adopting very different early strategies in their quest for the 2016 Democratic nomination.

    CUOMO'S 'GRETA GARBO' STRATEGY-- Dylan Byers: 'Andrew Cuomo is planning to make a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2016. Yet for the second year in a row, Cuomo declined to attend the National Governors Association winter meeting this weekend in Washington, typically a must-attend event for aspiring governors. ... In the 420-some days that he has been in the Statehouse, Cuomo hasn't done a single interview with any of the national television networks, despite more than a dozen requests from Sunday morning shows. ... [T]hat puts him in stark contrast to other heavily discussed 2016 contenders, most notably Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, a ubiquitous media presence ...


    "[I]nsiders in New York say Cuomo's low profile is part of a tightly controlled media operation geared toward ensuring a strong showing in 2016. By avoiding the national spotlight now, they say, Cuomo can craft his own narrative as an able governor -- outgrowing his reputation as a brash political tactician ... 'Here you have a Democratic governor whose general position in life is, 'If I do a good job, they will find me,'" Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf explained. 'He's the guy who's running the game and the Washington media is finding him. ... The strategy is do a good job at home, make headlines doing your work in the world's media capital and they will come looking for you ... And it's working because people are talking about what he's doing.'' http://bit.ly/wk043t
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  10. #10
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Even WaPo Op-Ed Columnists are moving on to 2016.
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...c=nl_headlines
    The 2016 argument for a return to conservative purity is especially unconvincing in light of the implacable demographic math of a future, more diverse electorate. Republicans will find it increasingly difficult to assemble a winning coalition if they cling to an unforgiving policy on immigration. Many on the Republican bench — former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) — seem to get this. It’s less clear that the Republican base does.
    But even if Biden chose to run — at 73, he would be the oldest person ever elected president — he would surely face significant competition for the nomination, if not from Hillary Clinton, then from the next generation of Democrats, figures such as New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Sen. Mark Warner (Va.).
    All of this suggests that the next election — not this increasingly stale, unenlightening campaign — is the one truly worth watching.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Report: Pelosi Would ‘Love’ to See a Hillary 2016 Ticket

    House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi on Sunday became one of the latest public figures to rally behind a Hillary Clinton presidential bid in 2016.
    .
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    It looks like Mitt Romney has the Republican nomination in the bag with the latest primary results.

  13. #13
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    Quote Originally Posted by Holly View Post
    It looks like Mitt Romney has the Republican nomination in the bag with the latest primary results.
    Holly, was that Freudian putting Romney in 2016?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    2016 WATCH-
    MARCO RUBIO will keynote tonight's South Carolina Silver Elephant dinner in Columbia. The smart money is on him getting passed over for VP and then running outright in 2016, assuming Romney loses. The Palmetto State will be a linchpin of the Florida senator's nominating strategy, so he's laying the groundwork early.


    CHRIS CHRISTIE, the New Jersey governor, keynotes the Lincoln Day dinner in the less-politically-important state of Kentucky tonight.


    RAND PAUL, the Kentucky senator almost certain to run for president in 2016, is writing a book. Title will be "Government Bullies: Americans Arrested, Abused, and Terrorized." Publication date is September 11. Amazon preview: http://amzn.to/ JZvgr 7.


    HILLARY sat down with USA Today to talk about her plan to leave at the end of the first term. Reporter's question: "I don't know how you do it...how do you find the energy to travel 750,000 miles?" HRC: "777 - but who's counting?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2016

    What does Ron/Rand Paul want?
    http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...cc=ph-20120523

    As sort-of-still-a-presidential-candidate Ron Paul continues to collect delegates at state Republican Party conventions, the question of what the libertarian Texas congressman wants has become more urgent in GOP circles.
    A speaking role at the Republican convention, where Mitt Romney is expected to accept the nomination?
    A seat at the party's rule-making table to advocate making it easier for non-mainstream candidates to compete in future GOP nominating contests?
    Well, yes, as a start.
    But it's increasingly looking like Paul, 76, and his passionate loyalists are consolidating clout in state party organizations with an eye toward 2016. They appear to be laying the groundwork for a future presidential run by the congressman's son, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky.
    A run even — and, perhaps, especially — if Romney is the incumbent president. It's a scenario that the younger Paul, 49, a Tea Party favorite, has not tamped down.

    "Sounds like a good question to have no comment on for me," he said, grinning, at a recent Cato Institute forum, when asked directly by the moderator about whether he'd challenge a potential President Romney four years from now.
    Son Of Liberty
    The younger Paul, like his dad, has shown no hesitation in taking on the powerful in his own party. He did it to win his Senate seat, and he's doing it Tuesday in the GOP primary in Kentucky.
    THE RISE OF RAND PAUL. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is the most powerful Republican in the Senate, but is he the most powerful Republican senator in his own state? The rising influence of Rand Paul and the tea party over the Kentucky GOP was underlined last night when Paul ally Thomas Massie won in the state's 4th District Republican primary. Massie vanquished two establishment Republican rivals with help from the junior senator and his organization, and he demonstrated why McConnell has kept his head down and fundraised like mad since backing Rand Paul's GOP primary opponent in 2010. McConnell has recognized the power shifting in the state party and is taking steps to protect himself ahead of his 2014 reelection campaign. Read more
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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