Assembly election predictions:

[Kilsally]

Assembly election predictions:

Here`s mine:

DUP 36
SF 29
UUP 15
SDLP 15
Alliance 8
Green 1
TUV 1
PUP 1
PBPA 1 – McCann
McFarland

Slugger O Toole is running predictions at:-
http://sluggerotoole.com/2011/05/04/...comment-842784

StratagemNI are running a competition on predictions
http://predict.stratagem-ni.com/

Whitebox is a great site for running predictions
http://www.assembly2011.co.uk/

[C. Flower]

I heard that turn out by lunchtime was quite low. Does that have any bearing on your prediction ?

[Kilsally]

At this stage I would say no as most people do not turn out until the evening after Tea / work. But a low turnout which particularly seems to happen in Unionist areas and working class areas could affect things. The PUP seat could go to Dawn Purvis the ex-PUP MLA, the McCann prediction is tight too and McFarland. TUV could surprise with a 2nd seat or even 3rd and Alliance could edge upwards - all of which would probably take from the DUP rather than Sinn Fein. UUP / SDLP will be doing well to get 15 each.

[5intheface]

Oh well then why not.

DUP - 35
SF - 29
SDLP - 16
UUP - 14
All - 8
TUV - 2
GR - 1 (Touch and go)
McClarty (Out on a limb)
McFarland
Purvis

The TUV could be the key in the entire thing. Still think they'll do well to get even 2 seats but their split of the vote could be crucial in a great many 6th seats. They will either take enough Ist prefs to assist nationalists or else their elimination will push another Unionist over the line.

Can only see a couple of places where SF will make a gain and the sad state of the UUP doesn't seem to be threatening the DUPers.

Love to see McCann get in but I'm not optomistic. Can't see PUP having anyone good enough to take a seat. McFarland best chance for an Indo. McClarty's my wildcard.

SF might get the largest number of 1st prefs right enough.

I commend this prediction to the house.

[Kilsally]

Hard to know if the PUP vote will go with Purvis or Brian Ervine (brother of David) or split....

[5intheface]

Hard to know if the PUP vote will go with Purvis or Brian Ervine (brother of David) or split....

Considering Purvis' endorsement of Naomi Long in the Westminster, I'd say she could be in line for a lot of Alliance preferences if she can stay in long enough to avail of them.

[mutley]

Hard to know if the PUP vote will go with Purvis or Brian Ervine (brother of David) or split....

Depends on whether the PUP voters agree with her condemnation of Bobby Moffets murder or not

[5intheface]

Depends on whether the PUP voters agree with her condemnation of Bobby Moffets murder or not

I'd say a lot of her PUP vote came from people who had little support for the UVF. Also, it's widely accepted that most people sympathetic to the UVF don't vote for the PUP anyway.

What about a prediction muts? Kilsally and me don't want to be the only people looking stupid this time tomorrow!

[Cáthasaigh]

My prediction is that DUP/PSF will be back sharing the illusion of power and it will mean sweet FA difference to all the rest of us.

[mutley]

I predict a lower than expected turnout for SF, though not enough to effect the status quo

[antiestablishmentarian]

When are the exit polls out?

[5intheface]

When are the exit polls out?

Er, you fancy standing outside a polling station in the north asking people who they voted for? We don't do exit polls.

[antiestablishmentarian]

.

[Cáthasaigh]

Er, you fancy standing outside a polling station in the north asking people who they voted for? We don't do exit polls.

I think they're called 'go and ****** yourself' polls.

[5intheface]

.

Now exit wounds on the other hand, we do them.