Poll of Polls
State by State polls.
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COUNTDOWN: 21 days. The election is three weeks from today.
The Hill: Race tightens for swing states By Jonathan Easley Mitt Romney’s debate victory has tightened the presidential race in the dozen or so states that will determine the winner.
The Washington Post: Surge in ad purchases being driven by Romney, allies By Dan Eggen and T.W. Farnam They are banking heavily on a high-risk, high-reward media strategy in the final weeks of the campaign.http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...2a7_story.html
The New York Times: Voter rolls are called vulnerable to hackers in 2 states By Nicole Perlroth Computer security experts have found weak points in the voter databases in Maryland and Washington State, raising concerns about the ability of hackers to disenfranchise voters.
BETTER WORLD CAMPAIGN says 3 in 4 voters will be influenced by foreign policy: A comprehensive bipartisan poll from Public Opinion Strategies and Hart Research, conducted the weekend before last, found that 47% don't think the candidates are talking enough about foreign policy - the topic of the third debate. They asked open-endedly for respondents to say what they'd like to hear the candidates talk about. What came up most: Ending the war in Afghanistan/bring troops home, the impact of our relationship and support of Israel, How to address the development of nuclear weapons in Iran, What to do in the Middle East, Our continuous involvement in wars, About our aid to other countries, Dealing with terrorism, Our economic involvement and dependence on China/Asia; and border security. 2-page press release from the Better World Campaign: http://goo.gl/rYgNk. 6-page memo from the pollsters: http://goo.gl/FXb6L.
--N.Y. Times col. 1, "CAMPAIGNS MINE PERSONAL LIVES TO GET OUT VOTE: EXTENSIVE USE OF DATA -- Subtle Techniques Try to Influence Habits on Election Day," by Charles Duhigg : "In the weeks before Election Day, millions of voters will hear from callers with surprisingly detailed knowledge of their lives. These callers - friends of friends or long-lost work colleagues - will identify themselves as volunteers for the campaigns or independent political groups. The callers will be guided by scripts and call lists compiled by people - or computers - with access to details like whether voters may have visited pornography Web sites, have homes in foreclosure, are more prone to drink Michelob Ultra than Corona or have gay friends or enjoy expensive vacations. ... [W]hen ... targeted voters open their mailboxes or check their Facebook profiles, they may find that someone has divulged specifics about how frequently they and their neighbors have voted in the past. Calling out people for not voting, what experts term 'public shaming,' can **** someone to cast a ballot. ...http://nyti.ms/UX2VcY
Race for president remains close nationally
Dan Balz and Jon Cohen
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll portrays an electorate that remains deeply divided along partisan lines and locked in its views.
Concerned that the Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson could hurt the Romney campaign, Republicans across the country have been working to keep him off the ballot.
CAMPAIGNS CRITIQUE THE MODERATOR. Disturbed by the active role CNN’s Candy Crowley has said she would like to play in the town hall-style debate on Tuesday, both presidential campaigns expressed concern to the Commission on Presidential Debates, Time reports. The two campaigns have called on Crowley to follow the debate rules that the campaigns set with the bipartisan commission earlier, arguing that the questioning should be driven by the audience members, rather than the moderator. Crowley, however, was not part of that agreement. Read more
DOES FACT-CHECKING MAKE A DIFFERENCE? The explosion of both independent and partisan fact-checking this cycle helps keep voters informed and politicians accountable, partisans say. But the candidates don’t seem to be changing their tunes when challenged on the facts, and their supporters don’t seem to care. In the presidential debates, the candidates have pulled out conflicting data points that are part-truth, part-spin, but not all independents and undecided voters may be motivated enough to figure out who’s right. Read more
POLL: RACE STILL TIED AS GOP ENTHUSIASM JUMPS. A new ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Monday shows rising Republican enthusiasm following the first presidential debate, but GOP nominee Mitt Romney does not gain ground on the ballot test, as the percentage of voters who say the nation is on the wrong track fell to its lowest point in nearly three years. Read more
HOW TONIGHT'S QUESTIONERS WILL BE CHOSEN : Depending on the final studio configuration, 80 to 84 voters will join the town-hall format presidential debate, at 9:30 p.m. at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y., on Long Island. The Commission on Presidential Debates is once again using Dr. Frank Newport and the Gallup Organization to pick the audience: All will be uncommitted, registered voters from Nassau County who say that they plan to vote, and that there is a chance they could vote for either candidate. The sample, reached using both landlines and cellphones, will include a variety of incomes, races and political persuasions. (Although Republicans aren't sure how many evangelical hunters will turn up in Nassau County.) A few extra are picked to account for no-shows.
The audience will arrive at Hofstra in the morning. People who want to ask a question write the identical question on two cards: one to keep, and one for the moderator, CNN's Candy Crowley. She screens the questions for topic variety (will include foreign and domestic), to eliminate duplication, and to include a mix of genders and ages. In the past, 12 to 16 people have asked questions. Because this year's rules include a little longer time for the candidates to discuss each topic, the number will likely be at the lower end of that range.
--HANDCUFFS FOR CANDY? TIME's Mark Halperin : "[T]he Romney and Obama campaigns have expressed concern to the Commission on Presidential Debates about how the moderator of the Tuesday town hall has publicly described her role ... While an early October memorandum of understanding between the Obama and Romney campaigns and the ... commission ... suggests CNN's Candy Crowley would play a limited role in the Tuesday-night session, Crowley, who is not a party to that agreement, has done a series of interviews on her network in which she has suggested she will assume a broader set of responsibilities. As Crowley put it last week, 'Once the table is kind of set by the town-hall questioner, there is then time for me to say, "Hey, wait a second, what about X, Y, Z?"' ...
.. But if the Obama and Romney campaigns agreed to such terms, there is no evidence that Crowley did - or was ever asked to do so. ... Crowley referred all questions about the debate format to the Commission." http://ti.me/RZbLTF
HIGH-STAKES DEBATE. The 90-minute town-hall debate at Hofstra University tonight will feature questions from uncommitted Nassau County, N.Y., voters selected by Gallup. Moderator Candy Crowley is tasked with selecting which of the 80 voters' questions will be asked, and following up after each candidate’s two-minute response. Both domestic and foreign issues are fair game. Here are National Journal’s primers on what is at stake and the issues likely to dominate.
CANDIDATES CAN EXPECT QUESTIONS ON LIBYA. Republicans are clamoring for answers after the death of four Americans in Libya. At the vice presidential debate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., accused the White House of changing its story and failing to provide adequate security for the U.S. ambassador, who was killed. With State Department, FBI and Congressional investigations ongoing, here are four questions President Obama and Mitt Romney could face during tonight’s second presidential debate. Read more
BEHIND THE CURTAIN : TIME's Mark Halperin posts the 21-page debate agreement between Bob Bauer of the Obama campaign and Ben Ginsberg of the Romney campaign. The stipulations for tonight: "The moderator [CNN's Candy Crowley] shall select the questioners, but she may not 'coach' the questioners. ... [Q]uestioners shall not be allowed to make statements, speeches or comments. They must ask their question ... and make no other comments. ... The moderator will not ask follow-up questions or comment on either the questions asked by the audience or the answers of the candidates during the debate or otherwise intervene in the debate except to acknowledge the questioners from the audience or enforce the time limits ... The audience members shall not ask follow-up questions ..., and the audience member's microphone shall be turned off after he or she completes asking the questions." http://bit.ly/RAtfXc
BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:
THE 3 STATES THAT MATTER MOST - OHIO, VIRGINIA, FLORIDA: "In these big three, home to a combined 60 electoral votes, Obama and Romney are spending both the most money and the most time," Jonathan Martin writes in the story leading our site. "The logic behind the candidates homing in on the trio is simple: The way Republicans see it, Romney will have a much steeper climb winning the presidency without taking back all three from the Democratic column. And in the eyes of Obama's team, they can all but ensure a second term if they win just one of the battlegrounds. Obama's high command is convinced that without a sweep of Virginia, Florida and Ohio, Romney can't make up the difference further west to reach the needed 270 electoral votes. 'Romney needs an inside straight, he has to have all three,' said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina." http://goo.gl/j2DA9
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The Hill: Team Romney banks $170M in September, trails Obama by $11M
By Justin Sink
Mitt Romney's campaign raised $170 million in September, nearly matching President Obama's $181 million haul and far surpassing his previous record, an August effort that brought in just under $112 million.
LIGHTER CLICKS -
SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE opened with this 8.5-minute parody of the VP debate: http://goo.gl/H3HuQ.
"ARIANNA HUFFINGTON" appeared on SNL's "Weekend Update" to comment on Martha Raddatz's performance. 4-minutes: http://goo.gl/XZC1a.
STEPHEN COLBERT talked with David Gregory. Fun 17-minute interview: http://goo.gl/c4ZhZ.
ROSIE PEREZ attacks Romney for saying that he'd have a better chance of becoming president if he was Latino in a 2-minute video. It's the first in a series that will be released by American Bridge and the Jewish Council for Education and Research: http://goo.gl/ylL7l.
JEN PSAKI, the Obama campaign's traveling press secretary and a College of William & Mary alum, sent POLITICO a list of 10 things to do in Williamsburg (where Obama's doing debate prep). It's a pretty solid clip-and-save list for your next trip down there: http://goo.gl/vBErl.
MARRIOTT'S are a mainstay for the Romney campaign. The Post's Jason Horowitz looks at the relationship: http://goo.gl/rta54.