US Presidential Election 2012

[Kev Bar]

Today, Mitt Romney Lost the Election
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-election.html

Mitt Romney: 'Victims' comment not elegantly stated.

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mit...ated-1.4012121

New Romney Video: Israeli Peace ‘Almost Unthinkable’
http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...able--20120918

Romney Courts Hispanics, Wishes He Were One of Them
Romney on Monday promised to reform immigration laws, but ducked questions about whether he would continue President Obama’s policy of exempting college students and military personnel from deportation. And in a video released by Mother Jones, he is heard saying he could be elected more easily if he were Latino.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...-them-20120917

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/op...ll-romney.html

A problem ‘entitled’ Romney
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...wpisrc=nl_wonk
http://www.nationaljournal.com/polit...mney--20120918

NATE SILVER, in Sunday's N.Y. Times Magazine, on his "TIPPING POINT" STATES: "If Romney makes gains in Wisconsin, for example, he will probably also do so in neighboring Minnesota. ... The most plausible range of outcomes runs from Obama losing the election by about two percentage points, slightly better than John Kerry did, to his winning it by perhaps six or seven, slightly worse than his margin from four years ago. Given where the election is being contested, however, the most likely outcome is that Obama wins enough tipping-point states to eke out a victory." http://nyti.ms/POfxPt

"WHY OBAMA IS WINNING," "Unemployment is over 8 percent. Nearly 60 percent of Americans ... believe the country is on the wrong track. The number of people on food stamps is at a historic high and the median net worth of American families is at a 20-year low. If it was true that winning elections is mostly a matter of numbers - as some political scientists and campaign operatives like to argue - Barack Obama's reelection as president should be close to a mathematical impossibility. ... But 2012 is proving that politics isn't just about numbers ... With Obama holding a narrow but so far sturdy lead over Mitt Romney in polls, many incredulous Republicans sound like the Michael Dukakis character in a 1988 Saturday Night Live skit: 'I can't believe I'm losing to this guy.'

"The phenomenon is the result of three powerful factors, according to interviews with some two dozen political veterans from both parties. ..
1) A Democratic landscape: The state-by-state polls this fall make it clear: The 2008 presidential election was no anomaly. The Upper South and interior West are now competitive terrain and will be in future White House races. That means Democrats have more margin for error than Republicans ...
2) The incumbent's staying power ... Obama ... remains in the minds of many voters a historic figure - not just another embattled incumbent. ...
3) The challenger's flaws." http://politi.co/QkWs7

Here’s a good takedown of Romney’s 47 percent claims.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-those-people/

HOW BAD IS THIS? So much for that Romney Reset. This is more damaging than Libya because it feeds the caricature that Romney is heartless, arrogant and not concerned about "people like you." It will fire up the president's base, and it could break through to a segment of low-information voters who could care less about foreign policy. It comes at a time when Romney (facing a coagulating "campaign in disarray" story line) needs desperately to land a punch on Obama. On the other hand, many conservatives are likely to rally behind Romney. Many who don't pay income tax think they do. Here are some questions that will determine how long this story's legs are:
(1) Will down-ballot Republicans distance themselves?
(2) How damaging is the additional tape Mother Jones has?
(3) What does Romney do to show that he does not think 47% of voters are moochers?
(4) How much paid media will the Obama campaign put behind highlighting the line? "It's hard to serve as president for all Americans when you've disdainfully written off half the nation," Jim Messina said in a statement last night that could foreshadow an attack ad. American Bridge 21st Century already turned a web video, the first of what will surely be many: http://goo.gl/y3tHO.
(5) Do Obama's two New York fundraisers today compel him to personally pull his punches or will he engage with the story on Letterman?

But in a preview of what is likely to be a chorus of Democratic attacks launched Tuesday, senior Obama adviser David Axelrod mocked Romney's explanation on Twitter late Monday night.

"Q for Mitt," Axelrod wrote. "So how DO you 'elegantly state' that half of America sees themselves as 'victims' who refuse to take personal responsibility?"

Romney took only three questions during the press conference, and immediately left the stage. The Republican nominee is not scheduled to have any public appearances on Tuesday.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...damage-control

The Obama campaign on Monday tried to raise expectations for Mitt Romney's performance in this fall's presidential debates, labeling them "make or break" for the Republican nominee.
Jennifer Psaki, the traveling press secretary for Obama's reelection campaign, noted that the president had not participated in debates in four years, while Romney had been in about 20 in the past 12 months or so because of the Republican primary. For Romney, the debates represent a "make-or-break" moment, Psaki said.
Obama and Romney's first debate, on Oct. 3 at the University of Denver in Colorado, will focus on domestic issues.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-make-or-break

WHY OBAMA IS WINNING

1) A Democratic landscape: "The Upper South and interior West are now competitive terrain and will be in future White House races. That means Democrats have more margin for error than Republicans when it comes to cobbling together 270 electoral votes. As more voters, both transients from other states and immigrants, have poured into states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, political demographics in these places have been transformed." And, of course, there's a structural problem with Hispanics...

2) The incumbent's staying power: "Minorities have been harder hit by the recession than whites, yet surveys show that they feel better off now than before Obama and are more optimistic about the future than whites...Swaths of centrist voters believe the president inherited a mess and that George W. Bush and the Republicans are more to blame for the dismal economy than Obama and the Democrats."

3) The challenger's flaws: "Romney's advisers have started coming in for the predictable criticism that's inevitable in a campaign that's losing. But as big an issue is the candidate's own profound weaknesses - he has a résumé that's uniquely vulnerable to attack during difficult economic times and has little in the way of political self-awareness... Beyond his background, Romney also is often his own worst enemy on the stump." http://goo.gl/uZoEI

RICKETTS AD BLITZ LIKELY TO BE ON MESSAGE: "Unlike the controversial aborted pitch for a $10-million attack highlighting Rev. Jeremiah Wright, billionaire investor Joe Ricketts's new super PAC campaign will use themes and players blessed by Romney and his allies". "The Ricketts-funded super PAC announced that it would spend $10 million on ads starting this week boosting Romney.The team assembled to carry out the campaign overlaps significantly with the one behind the Romney-blessed super PAC Restore Our Future, including election lawyer Charlie Spies, and ad-maker Larry McCarthy." http://goo.gl/Lcp5C

ROMNEY CLAIMS HE'S NEVER MET KRIS KOBACH: The Kansas secretary of state is loathed by Latino activists for his hardline positions, and Romney's campaign has called him an "informal adviser." But during a Univision interview yesterday, Romney said he's "not met with him yet." The campaign later clarified that they've met at campaign events but not in "formal policy meetings." CNN's Peter Hamby: http://goo.gl/LJY0a.

LIGHTER CLICKS

Perhaps this is just the GOP’s new strategy? ”Calling a GOP victory in the 2012 presidential election antithetical to the party platform, top Republicans revealed a new long-term political strategy Tuesday: reelecting Barack Obama and making his life even more of a living hell than it already is…’If we are going to make the president a haggard shell of a human being by the time he leaves the White House, we need four more years of never compromising, four more years of miring every piece of legislation in unnecessary procedural muck, four more years of pretending we want to work with the president and then walking away from the table at the last second,’ McConnell added. ‘Four more years! Four more years! Obama 2012!’” The Onion.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/new...wpisrc=nl_wonk

JIMMY CARTER'S GRANDSON, a looking-for-work opposition researcher named James, helped connect Mother Jones with whoever recorded the video of Romney's fundraiser. He talks with New York Magazine: http://goo.gl/kNhLd.

STEPHEN COLBERT made fun of Romney's premature Libya announcement: http://goo.gl/cdOA7.

JON STEWART attacks Sean Hannity for hypocritically criticizing Obama for democracy promotion when he praised George W. Bush for the same thing: http://goo.gl/rbUur.

A YOUTUBE VIDEO rearranges quotes from Obama's "you didn't build that" speech to the tune of MC Hammer's 1990 hit "U Can't Touch This." http://goo.gl/hYRRX

FOX AND FRIENDS got pranked by a 20-year-old: http://goo.gl/P4oyB.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My dad, as you probably know, was the governor of Michigan and was the head of a car company. But he was born in Mexico ... and uh, had he been born of uh, Mexican parents, I'd have a better shot at winning this." - Romney jokes that "it would be helpful to be Latino" at the surreptitiously-recorded fundraiser http://goo.gl/ii7yQ

Here's an attempt at the elegance

http://www.theonion.com/articles/rom...:quote:default

And a truly brilliant one too.

[PaddyJoe]

Nice one here from Julian Gough

The Elegant President: A Poem for Mitt Romney



It's hard to be rich, ‘cause then poor people ***** ‘bout

Our houses, our cars, and our cruisers.

When I’m king, I won’t do a thing for the whiners

In diners; I don't work for losers.



I love you because you just paid fifty grand for a plate

I wish there were more of you great guys to love in each state

Don't worry, I won't do a thing for the folk serving dinner

I'll talk like they're not even here, ‘cause I just talk to winners.



No representation without some taxation

That's what the first tea party meant.

I'm the best man that money can buy for this nation;

The poor can't afford presidents.



What we need is an elegant country for elegant folk.

Not fuckups in pickups with hiccups from drinking and dope

Who can't afford healthcare, who can't afford dinners like this

Those people aren't drowning, they're waving their communist fists.



The president’s not there to help forty seven percent.

I don't care if they starve, I don't care if they can't pay their rent

It's their own fault for borrowing money from people like us.

Trying to own cars, when God meant them to travel by bus.



I'll be an elegant president, there for the elegant few.

I'll do what you pay me to do, because I'm one of you.

If Jesus had just paid some taxes, I'd represent him

But he didn't, so **** him, the loser can learn how to swim.

http://www.juliangough.com/journal/2...tt-romney.html

[Count Bobulescu]

Analysis: 5 Reasons Why It’s Too Early to Write Off Romney
Take a breath, Washington. It’s too early to write off Mitt Romney. Remember, some of the same people counting him out today dumped on Obama a few weeks back, writes National Journal's Ron Fournier.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...omney-20120918

Analysis: Pollsters Agree: Romney Needs Something to Happen
This election is still quite close and could go either way, but Mitt Romney badly needs something to happen to change the trajectory of this race. If things remain as they are today, he loses, writes National Journal's Charlie Cook.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...0120918?page=1

Will Copious Ads Lead to Voter Tuneout?
By Abby Livingston
Political strategists are realizing what's long been obvious to any swing-state voter with a television set: Presidential advertising could soon reach a saturation level that makes it impossible for any political message to stand out. Full Story 43,000 ads a day.
http://www.rollcall.com/issues/58_22...email&pos=epol

The Hill: The Romney conundrum: Winning independents but losing overall
By Christian Heinze
There are two competing factors at work for Mitt Romney among independents. One is that he’s winning their vote, but the other is that they’re less enthused about voting, and that malaise is damaging Romney’s overall performance in polls.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...losing-overall

The Washington Post: Romney faces twofold challenge in getting campaign back on track
By Karen Tumulty
As Mitt Romney struggles to put a cascade of missteps behind him, the Republican presidential nominee faces a twofold challenge: first, to steer the conversation back to the economy, and second, to prevent his recent difficulties from curdling into a perception that the race is becoming unwinnable.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z1

The New York Times: Romney says remarks on voters help clarify position
By Jim Rutenberg and Ashley Parker
Facing criticism for characterizing 47 percent of voters as people who believe they are “victims,” Mitt Romney sought to steer the conversation toward a debate about government’s role in people’s lives.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/us...blem.html?_r=2

Polls: Obama Leads in Wis.; Closer in Colo., Va.
New polls out early on Wednesday show President Obama opening up a significant lead in Wisconsin, but the race for president is within the margin of error in two other critical battleground states, Colorado and Virginia. The CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University surveys show that Obama has erased Romney's advantage in voters' perceptions of which candidate would do a better job handling the economy.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...o-va--20120919

Analysis: Romney's Video Remarks Have Deep GOP Roots
Mitt Romney’s decision to reaffirm rather than renounce his controversial taped comments about dependency underscores the extent to which Republicans want to frame the presidential election as a contest between “makers and takers” — as well as the risk that construct could pose to a GOP coalition that has grown increasingly dependent on older voters who rely on government aid, as National Journal's Ronald Brownstein writes.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...0120918?page=1

President Obama Addresses Romney Remarks on 'Late Show With David Letterman' -- VIDEO
In an appearance on Late Show With David Letterman on Tuesday night, President Obama addresses Republican challenger Mitt Romney's recorded remarks released this week by Mother Jones magazine.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//poli...video-20120918

Insiders: Romney's Attacks on Obama Over Defense Cuts Won't Move Needle for Voters
Seventy percent of National Journal’s National Security Insiders say Mitt Romney’s attacks on President Obama alleging his support of $1 trillion in cuts to the Pentagon’s budget will not have an impact on voters.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//nati...oters-20120918

The who behind the video: Frmr. Pres. Jimmy Carter’s grandson. “Midway through a routine Internet search, James Carter IV stumbled upon a video that just didn't seem right. The grandson of former President Jimmy Carter and a self-fashioned Democratic opposition researcher, the younger Carter had watched countless hours of footage of Republican Mitt Romney and made it a habit to search YouTube every few days for keywords like ‘Romney’ and ‘Republicans.’…Carter persuaded the source to trust [Mother Jones journalist David] Corn with the full video — on the condition that he keep the source's identity a secret. Corn ran with it, using clues in the video to triangulate when and where it had been recorded…’James: This is extraordinary. Congratulations! Papa,’ the former president told his grandson Tuesday morning in an email obtained by the AP.” The Associated Press.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...wpisrc=nl_wonk

A RAFT OF FRESH POLLING-
NYT/CBS/QUINNIPIAC-

COLORADO: Obama essentially ties Romney 48-47.

WISCONSIN: Obama leads 51-45. The Senate race is tied 47-47. The New York Times suggests the state is slipping out of reach for Romney: http://goo.gl/Y7MUC.

VIRGINIA: Obama leads 50-46. Kaine leads 51-44. NYT toplines graphic for all three: http://goo.gl/MOHa4.

WASHINGTON POST of VIRGINIA: Obama leads by 8 (52-44) among likely voters. He has 53% job approval. Obama leads 54-37 on "understands the economic problems that Americans are facing." Story by Dan Balz, Jon Cohen and Laura Vozzella: http://goo.gl/Dmzw5.

WSJ/NBC-Obama leads nationally 50-45 among likely voters. 39% say the county is on the right track, up seven from August and the highest since September 2009. Obama and Romney tie 43-43 on who is best to tackle the country's economic problems. 47% approve of Obama's handling of the economy, up three from the summer. Mark Murray analysis: http://goo.gl/WlMfs. 14-page toplines: http://goo.gl/gK5aI.

USA TODAY/GALLUP of 12 SWING STATES-Obama up 48-46. "21% of Obama's supporters and 14% of Romney's supporters say there is 'some' or a 'slight' chance they will switch their vote," Susan Page writes. "The 'enthusiasm gap' that favored Republicans by 11 points a year ago suddenly has moved to a 9-point advantage for Democrats...The percentage of Democrats who say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting has surged from 53% last month to 73% now. Republican enthusiasm has risen but by not nearly as much, to 64% from 55%." Story: http://goo.gl/7xqJq. Gallup press release: http://goo.gl/3ePcu.

AP/GFK-Among likely voters, Obama leads 47-46. Among all adults, Obama leads 52-37. "Romney lost his pre-convention edge on the economy as his campaign was distracted by criticism of his hasty response to the Obama administration's handling of the eruption of violence in Egypt and Libya last week and his failure to mention the war in Afghanistan or thank the troops in his prime-time convention speech," Nancy Benjac and Jen Agiesta write in their ledeall. "The two candidates run about even in the poll on who would best handle the economy or the federal budget deficit, but Obama has narrow advantages on protecting the country, social issues and health care." Obama's approval is above 50 for the first time since May. http://goo.gl/dbvjr

ARG of NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama's up 2 (48-46). http://goo.gl/Ck8uX

PPP (D) of MASSACHUSETTS: Obama's up 18 (57-39). http://goo.gl/601eM

HARTFORD COURANT/UCONN of CONNECTICUT: Democrat Chris Murphy narrowly leads Linda McMahon 37-33, with about 30 percent undecided. http://goo.gl/CGNyK

WBUR (Boston NPR) of MASSACHUSETTS: Elizabeth Warren leads 45-40, the fourth poll in a row showing the Democrat taking a lead. http://goo.gl/5PaEV

Romney borrowed $20 million in August: Romney’s campaign is more flush with cash than Obama’s, but he was still forced to borrow $20 million in August.
Romney had to borrow the money thanks to an apparent shortage in primary funds. Candidates are only allowed to spend money raised for the general election after they are officially named their party’s nominee. That didn’t happen for Romney until the end of the month, and in the meantime, Romney has to borrow money.
He retained $15 million of that debt at the end of the month (the report is due by Thursday) and today has $11 million in debt remaining. That debt can only be paid down with money from donors who haven’t already contributed the maximum of $2,500 for the primary.
Romney’s campaign had $30 million cash on hand at the end of July. When you include the Republican National Committee and a joint fundraising committee between the two, though, he had $185.9 million, compared to $123.7 million for Obama and the Democrats.

NARAL PRO-CHOICE AMERICA TO FOCUS ON 25 SWING COUNTIES: The abortion rights group, working with the Democratic polling firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, has created a model for likely pro-choice Obama Defectors. They've identified 5.1 million women nationally who are most likely to support abortion rights, have voted for Obama in 2008 and yet probably aren't with him now. As a subset of that, they believe there are 1.2 million women who fit that mold in the nine battleground states. Within that, they've found a concentration of 338,020 in 25 key counties within those states. NARAL has found that they can move many of these women by highlighting Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan's "extreme anti-choice" positions on abortion. At a briefing later today, they will lay out plans to communicate with this small, but highly coveted, universe of women voters and go over messaging that works.

THE NARRATIVE - REPUBLICANS GETTING MORE NERVOUS: "Elected officials, donors and operatives are irritated about facing yet another distraction, but the surreptitiously recorded clips have triggered a round of broader complaints over Romney's fundraising-focused schedule, lackluster candidate skills and a seemingly adrift campaign that trails in key battleground states with less than 50 days to go," Jonathan Martin, Maggie Haberman and Anna Palmer report in the story leading our site. "Even as they lament this latest unforced error from Romney, many in the party believe their candidate faces more fundamental challenges...

Romney has not had a public event since Friday and spent much of Tuesday raising money in Utah and Texas. 'He needs to be talking about the economy and not in Utah,' said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). 'He's not going to get beat because of money. He ought to be running in Ohio and Florida like he's running for governor and running in Virginia like he's running for sheriff.'"

"The Romney campaign moved to try and tamp down donors' anxiety Tuesday with a series of conference calls. Senior advisers Matt Rhoades, Beth Myers, Spencer Zwick and Ed Gillespie discussed the strategy moving forward, according to participants on the calls. Much of the discussion on one of the larger conference calls centered on providing more details of Romney's plan for how he will govern, a major criticism that has been lodged against him in recent weeks. But one donor, who has raised well over six figures for Romney, expressed irritation that the larger call allowed no opportunities to ask questions nor supplied any answers on how exactly the campaign intended to make up its deficit in battlegrounds. 'Nobody talked about how they're going to win these states,' the donor said." This story: http://goo.gl/th4sK. Glenn Thrush on why you shouldn't write off Romney: http://goo.gl/EMx0q.

PEGGY NOONAN CALLS FOR AN INTERVENTION: "It's time to admit the Romney campaign is an incompetent one," she writes on her Wall Street Journal blog. "It's not big, it's not brave, it's not thoughtfully tackling great issues. It's always been too small for the moment. All the activists, party supporters and big donors should be pushing for change. People want to focus on who at the top is least constructive and most responsible. Fine, but Mitt Romney is no puppet: He chooses who to listen to. An intervention is in order. 'Mitt, this isn't working.'" http://goo.gl/3sOS3


Joe Biden, who avoided the flap on the stump in Iowa, told reporters on the flight back to DC last night why he's holding his fire: "There will be plenty of time. We'll let his statements speak for themselves for now." http://goo.gl/pHIRn

LIGHTER CLICKS -

JON STEWART had a field day with 47% on his show last night: http://goo.gl/Cgnl6.

DAVID GREGORY dances with a dog. This will be the funniest 15 seconds of your day: http://goo.gl/XOowJ.

BARACK OBAMA said he has a lot in common with Jay-Z at their fundraiser together last night. He netted more than $4 million: http://goo.gl/sCZUY.

TIM TEBOW doesn't rule out running for political office in an interview with the New York CBS affiliate: http://goo.gl/AAHzw.

ALEX CONANT, Marco Rubio's spokesman, tells the golf lobby that they need to learn how to take a joke: http://goo.gl/hX0v9.

DENZEL WASHINGTON says it is too soon to know Obama's legacy. Interview with GQ: http://goo.gl/emNNO.

ROMNEY and OBAMA IMPERSONATORS are in demand this season: http://goo.gl/tggtr.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I figure if somebody's dumb enough to ask me to go to a political convention and say something, they're gonna have to take what they get." - Clint Eastwood on "Extra" http://goo.gl/4WeuW

[Count Bobulescu]

Romney changes message to attack Obama's views on role of government
Reeling from remarks in a secretly recorded video, GOP rival jumps on Obama audio from '98. 
» Read full article

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...=nl_pmpolitics

THE FIX: Senate Democratic candidates look strong in recent polling
Senate Democrats have shored up their standing in several battlegrounds, including Wisconsin and Virginia. 
» Read full article

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics

THE FIX: 8 takeaways from the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll
We pore over the results, so you don't have to.
» Read full article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics

Paul Ryan: Romney 'obviously inarticulate' on 47 percent
In an interview with KNRV in Reno, Nev. Ryan argued that while Mitt Romney was "obviously inarticulate" at a fundraiser earlier this year, the point he made was sound. 
» Read full article

Analysis: Growing Economic Optimism Buoying Obama
The most striking statistic from Tuesday’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was that a growing number of Americans believe the country is on the right track. This, despite the monthly jobs reports showing minimal economic growth, with little signs of strength in the future, writes National Journal's Josh Kraushaar.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//poli...obama-20120919

NATIONAL POLLS DIVERGE ON PRESIDENTIAL RACE. With fewer than seven weeks to Election Day, a divide has developed between polls that show President Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck, and those that depict the president ahead, writes Hotline’s Steve Shepard. The Pew Research Center released its latest in-depth look at the race on Wednesday, showing Obama with an 8-point lead over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 43 percent, but other polls show a closer race. Still, some trends are emerging. Romney has not led in a single live-caller poll since the Republican convention last month. And several new battleground polls show Obama ahead.

OBAMA SURGES ON INTRADE. Since Mitt Romney cinched the GOP nomination in May, President Obama’s likelihood of reelection has hovered around 55 percent on Intrade, a leading online prediction market. But by Wednesday afternoon, Obama’s likelihood of winning had surged to 67.2 percent and Romney’s estimated likelihood of winning had dropped to 32.7 percent. Intrade accurately predicted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election and foresaw big gains for the GOP in 2010.

Here’s a good piece on Romney

Like Nixon, Romney is not only at war with the Democrats but also with the base of his own party, which has never been convinced that he’s a true conservative. Both Nixon and Romney have dressed their pragmatist campaigns in conservative clothing, but with the exception of their cultural biases against sex, drugs and pornography — and their instinctual disrespect for disrespecters of authority — none of it has ever rung true. The stink of inauthenticity wafts so heavily from both that their early biographers have incorporated it into the titles of their books, as historian David Greenberg pointed out to me in an interview. The Real Romney, published this year, and 1960′s The Real Nixon, both posit that what you see is not what you get with these two men.

“Romney is the most patently phony presidential candidate since Nixon,” says Greenberg, author of Nixon’s Shadow: The History of an Image. “The most talented politicians express a natural ease, by backslapping or chit-chatting with people. Nixon and Romney don’t have that skill, but they try anyway.” The failures of Nixon and Romney to connect, to seem “real” or to appear likable have resulted in both doubling their efforts to be personable and human, making even the sympathetic cringe.

http://blogs.reuters.com/jackshafer/...ilhous-romney/

George F. Will in The Washington Post on treating voters like grown-ups "Childlike credulity about presidents’ abilities to subdue turbulent portions of the world by projecting 'strength,' or to 'manage' the domestic economy, encourages political infantilism," Will writes. "This manifests itself in people seeking in public figures attributes pertinent only to private life." If only Romney could tell the truth: He's trying to make things less destructive, less dangerous, not be everyone's friend.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...190_story.html

Nicole Gelinas in National Review on why Romney should talk cronyism In the Mother Jones 47 percent video, someone asked Romney to fix regulatory agencies. Romney brushed him off, saying voters only cared about themselves. "But Romney needs to understand that voters are not just mercenary beasts looking for whichever candidate will help get them a better pay packet. Voters care about the world around them; they care about what corporate-bailout culture — a culture that predates Obama — has done to their country."-

http://www.nationalreview.com/articl...icole-gelinas#

KARL ROVE column in WSJ, "This Too Shall Pass, but What Follows Is Crucial : Romney has had a bad week, but he can recover-if he tells voters more clearly what he would do as president ": "Romney and his team (and supporters) must also steel themselves for more brutal attacks. The Florida fundraising video will not likely be the last surprise. The Romney campaign has largely refused to respond to attacks as a waste of time and resources. But in politics, sometimes the counter punch is stronger than the punch. ... Romney, a skilled debater, must reassure voters he's up to the job of being president. Fluid and agile, Mr. Obama will be expected to command each encounter. If he doesn't, polls may slowly shift against him."

CONNECTING THE DOTS - N.Y. Times A1, "In Tight Race, Obama Wields All Levers of Power in Reach," by Peter Baker and Eric Lipton : "On Friday, Mr. Obama will designate Chimney Rock in Colorado a national monument, preserving thousands of acres and aiding tourism, ... a decision shared Wednesday with a Denver newspaper. When he flew to Iowa last month, Mr. Obama arrived just as his administration announced drought relief for farmers and released a report promoting his support for wind power. ... Obama reversed position to endorse same-sex marriage before attending a big-dollar fund-raiser with gay and lesbian leaders. Just before addressing a national Latino organization, he used executive power to allow illegal immigrants to remain in the country if they had come as children." http://nyti.ms/QnO47t

POLLS DU JOUR:

--Gallup.com, "Democratic Enthusiasm Swells in the Swing States, Nationally," by Lydia Saad and Jeffrey M. Jones: "[W]hereas equal percentages of Democrats and Republicans [in 12 swing states] were enthusiastic in June, Democrats are now significantly more enthusiastic than Republicans, 73% vs. 64%. Independents' enthusiasm [is] up 18 points" to 43%. Nationally, Dem enthusiasm is 68% and R is 62%. http://bit.ly/OGnveP

--Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, "Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues: Democrats Narrow Engagement Gap": "With an eight-point lead over Mitt Romney among likely voters, Obama holds a bigger September lead than the last three candidates who went on to win in November, including Obama four years ago. In elections since 1988, only Bill Clinton, in 1992 and 1996, entered the fall with a larger advantage. ... Romney's favorability ... has risen, from 37% in July to 45% currently. ...

"Romney has gained no ground on Obama in being seen as more credible or more empathetic, and Obama now leads Romney by nearly three-to-one (66% to 23%) as the candidate who connects well with ordinary Americans - an even wider margin than in June." http://bit.ly/OdT4Nk

--USA Today 1A, below fold: "Poll: Romney's '47%' video hurts candidate with independents ... [1A graphic:] INDEPENDENTS: HOW ROMNEY'S COMMENTS AFFECTED THEIR VOTING PLANS: 15% More likely [to vote for Romney] ... 29% Less likely ... 53% No difference ... SOURCE: USA TODAY/ GALLUP POLL"

ABC: 22% of voters are still persuadable , including those who express anxiety about the candidate they're now supporting. "Persuadability is higher among adults younger than age 50 (27 percent persuadable) than among those 50 and up (17 percent), and higher among less-educated registered voters - 25 percent among those who don't have a college degree, vs. 17 percent of graduates," Gary Langer writes. http://goo.gl/2UvhI

FOX NEWS of FLORIDA: Obama up 5 (49-44) among likely voters. http://goo.gl/ALnP7

MARQUETTE of WISCONSIN: Obama up 14 (54-40) among likely voters. He led 49-46 last month. http://goo.gl/qMQGm

CNN of MICHIGAN: Obama up 8 (52-44) among likely voters. He ties 46-46 among independents. http://goo.gl/fD66c

FIELD of CALIFORNIA: Obama up 24 (58-34). http://goo.gl/bF0cH

COURANT of CONNECTICUT: Obama up 21 (53-32, with 12% undecided). http://goo.gl/TGWAt

KEEP IN MIND: Obama leads in polls that include cell phones. Nate Silver proves it and explains why: http://goo.gl/voCCf.

DNC POUNDS ON 47%: A 2-minute web video cobbles together negative TV coverage, including brutal soundbytes from John King and David Gergen on CNN. Watch: http://goo.gl/3PBYJ.

RESCUE PLAN CALLS FOR MITT TO BE OUT FRONT MORE: "A big focus, according to campaign officials, will be on Romney talking a lot more about how his ideas will help regular Americans who remain deeply suspicious of him," Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei report from Boston. "The aim: Switch the emphasis from Washington policies to personal pocketbooks...A campaign official said: 'In a lot of the current survey data, there's a desire among the electorate to know more about Mitt in terms of how he would lead. Over the next six weeks, the campaign is going to provide a lot more of that.' Aides also expect more joint appearances by Romney and Ryan - most likely in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin." http://goo.gl/h0p01

BOSTON BEING TIGHT-FISTED ON AD SPENDING: "One major reason appears to be that Mr. Romney's campaign finances have been significantly less robust than recent headlines would suggest," Jeremy Peters and Nicholas Confessore report in the New York Times. "Much of the more than $300 million the campaign reported raising this summer is earmarked for the Republican National Committee, state Republican organizations and Congressional races, limiting the money Mr. Romney's own campaign has to spend. Mr. Obama and his allies are handily outspending Mr. Romney and the conservative 'super PACs' working on his behalf in Colorado, Ohio and New Hampshire. And in states like Florida, Iowa, Nevada and Virginia, where the Romney and Obama forces are roughly matching their spending dollar for dollar, the super PACs are responsible for nearly half the advertising that is benefiting the Republican nominee." http://goo.gl/qjDdf

HE TOUTS ROMNEYCARE ON UNIVISION: "Romney said it was a compliment to be called the grandfather of 'Obamacare,'" the LA Times' Seema Mehta reports. 'Now and then the president says I'm the grandfather of Obamacare. I don't think he meant that as a compliment, but I'll take it. This was during my primary; we thought it might not be helpful,' Romney said during a Univision candidate forum Wednesday. "The former Massachusetts governor reiterated his vow to repeal the president's healthcare plan but praised his own, which included a requirement that most Massachusetts residents purchase health insurance. 'I've actually been able to put in place a system that fit the needs of the people in my state. And I'm proud of the fact that in my state, after our plan was put in place, every child has insurance, 98% of adults have insurance,' Romney said." http://goo.gl/JR2yX
47% FALLOUT-

JIM LEHRER ANNOUNCES TOPICS: The moderator of the first debate in Denver, focused on domestic policy, announced the six, 15-minute segments in a press release yesterday: "Subject to possible changes because of news developments, here are the topics for the October 3 debate, not necessarily to be brought up in this order: The Economy - I, The Economy - II, The Economy - III, Health Care, The Role of Government and Governing...All debates start at 9:00 p.m. ET and run for 90 minutes."

LIGHTER CLICKS -

ESPN produced a hysterical 8-minute tongue-in-cheek video (with a John McCain sit-down and narration by Ken Burns) about why the Teddy Roosevelt mascot has never won the president's race at Nationals games: http://goo.gl/RF5E6. If you're a Nats fan, check out the "Let Teddy Win" blog: http://goo.gl/A3dzH.

BURMESE POLITICIANS watched old episodes of The West Wing to understand how democracy should work, Hillary Clinton said at a congressional ceremony yesterday: http://goo.gl/Mi6of.

JON STEWART blasts Fox News over how they handled the 47% video: http://goo.gl/VQRTN.

STEPHEN COLBERT makes fun of Peggy Noonan's blog post calling Romney's campaign incompetent: http://goo.gl/tZjWT.

BARACK OBAMA nearly ruined an Iowa couple's wedding last month when he held a surprise rally at their venue, BUT he made up for it by giving them a silver tray and a mint julep cup with the presidential seal (along with a nice hand-written note). Whichever smart advance man thought of that earned the president boffo free media on WOI (the Des Moines ABC affiliate): http://goo.gl/Sme58.

DONALD TRUMP was going to "fire" Obama in a video at the RNC, but they never played it because Hurricane Isaac forced the cancellation of Monday's program: http://goo.gl/JgUrR.

FORBES released its annual list of the 400 richest people in America yesterday. David Koch is #4, Sheldon Adelson is #12 and George Soros is #15: http://goo.gl/yauxj.

[DCon]

Obama wants no action on Greece until he gets re-elected!

EU-IMF REVIEW OF GREEK DEBT SITUATION SET TO BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER U.S. ELECTION - EUROPEAN OFFICIALS

And the punchline:

"Obama doesn't want anything on a macroeconomic scale that is going to rock the global economy before Nov. 6," a senior EU official told

At least it is finally clear that the entire world's agenda is to get Obama reelected, broke Athens municipalities no longer collecting garbage, and running out of cash to pay the local Five-Oh notwithstanding.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe...ilout-calendar

[Count Bobulescu]

Obama wants no action on Greece until he gets re-elected!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe...ilout-calendar

Obama wants no action on ANYTHING until he gets re-elected.

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html
At this stage of the campaign the national polls such as those above begin to matter less and less. The individual swing state polls such as Florida, Virginia Ohio, etc. matter more and more. That's were the election will be won or lost. More on them later.

The New York Times: Before debates, Romney faces daunting task
By Jeff Zeleny and Jim Rutenberg

WASHINGTON — There are seven days until early voting begins in Iowa, less than two weeks until the first debate and 46 days left in the race for Mitt Romney to change the dynamic of a campaign that by many indicators is tilting against him.
That, advisers to President Obama acknowledge, is plenty of time.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/us...olls.html?_r=1

Define and Conquer
In the era of Citizens United, not all super PACs are created equal. The only outside super PAC backing President Obama is having an outsized influence on the presidential race, reports National Journal's Alex Roarty.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//maga...could-20120920

His Original Sin
Mitt Romney's problems can be traced to his decision earlier this year to tack to the right in the Republican primaries, writes National Journal's Ronald Brownstein.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...l-sin-20120920

Obama’s Uptick
President Obama may be further ahead than some polls indicate. Surveys that don’t reach cell phone users are probably underestimating his strength, reports Cook Report's Charlie Cook.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...ptick-20120920

Polls Show Obama Edge in More Swing States
Another slate of battleground-state polls released late Thursday confirms that President Obama holds a clear, if tenuous, advantage in the race to 270 electoral votes, reaching 50 percent in smaller swing states Colorado, Iowa, and Wisconsin. The polls, conducted by Marist College for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, show Obama with slight leads over Mitt Romney in Colorado and Wisconsin, and a significant lead in sparsely polled Iowa, where early voting begins next week.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//poli...tates-20120920

Romney campaign hits a financial snag
August numbers signal a financial shift away from GOP candidate.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c=nl_headlines

AD SPENDING HITS TWO-THIRDS OF A BILLION . Spending on television advertising in the race for the White House has topped two-thirds of a billion dollars, according to sources watching the advertising market, with Republicans only narrowly outpacing those who back Obama. With just seven weeks to go before Election Day, the two sides have rapidly stepped up their spending. They spent $47 million on television ads set to run Sept. 18-24, more than double the amount expended during the week prior. Obama's campaign remains the single-biggest spender, dishing out $16 million across 10 states last week. Romney's campaign is spending $11 million this week alone.

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-pres...llion-20120921

HEARTLAND MONITOR POLL: OBAMA LEADS ROMNEY BY 7 POINTS. President Obama has opened a solid lead over Mitt Romney by largely reassembling the “coalition of the ascendant” that powered the Democrat to his landmark 2008 victory, the latest Allstate/National Journal Heartland Monitor Poll has found. The survey found Obama leading Romney by 50 percent to 43 percent among likely voters, with key groups in the president’s coalition such as minorities, young people, and higher-income white women providing him support comparable to their levels in 2008. The results are in line with most other national surveys in recent days showing Obama establishing a measurable lead, including this week’s Pew Research Center and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls.

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-pres...0120921?page=1

“Why early voting could be pivotal” — Major Garrett, National Journal

http://www.nationaljournal.com/colum...?wpisrc=nl_fix

THE AUGUST MONEY CHASE - Last night was the deadline to file FEC reports for last month:
--Obama campaign's Katie Hogan emails reporters: "Due to the incredible growth in grassroots donors that we have seen to our campaign, Obama for America just filed the largest FEC report by almost double this election cycle. We are proud that our report is about 170,000 pages long in August, up from 90,000 pages in July. Thanks to our over 3 million donors."

Obama's fundraising machine operating at full steam: OFA raised $84.7 million - $35 million more than in July. "The campaign spent $83.7 million and ended the month with almost $89 million in reserve," report Dave Levinthal and Tarini Parti. "That easily eclipses the $50 million that Romney's campaign committee reported in the bank through August. The Romney campaign raised about $67 million and spent about $66 million, meaning Obama for America beat it in both categories - a notable turnaround from the past several months, when Romney was largely generating more campaign cash." http://goo.gl/g5YUY

RNC has 10x more cash than the DNC: $75.6 million on hand at the end of August, compared to $7.1 million. The RNC raised $35.6 million and spent $47.8 million. The DNC raised $13.6 million and spent $22 million. http://goo.gl/G6GYB

Romney has a grassroots donor problem: He actually got fewer donations under $200 after picking Ryan than before. In August, he raised $9.4 million in "unitemized" donations. In July, it was $11.8 million. For context, Obama raised more than $25 million in this category: http://goo.gl/5AFwa.

Democrats open checkbooks for Obama super PAC: Priorities USA Action raised $10.1 million and spent $9.5 million. Ken Vogel has more on who gave: http://goo.gl/lVQix.

Romney super PAC spent $21 million: "Restore Our Future raised $7 million in August - the second straight month its fundraising has dipped - even as it spent $21.2 million," per Ken. "Restore Our Future finished August with $6.3 million in the bank - its lowest reported cash on hand tally - leaving it in a potentially tenuous position for the stretch run." http://goo.gl/ClBi2

American Crossroads raised $9.4 million: They entered the post-Labor Day phase of the campaign with $32 million. http://goo.gl/ix8y7

Senate Dems super PAC spent $4.7 million: That's twice what Majority PAC took in. http://goo.gl/AElNi

DCCC outraised NRCC: The House Democratic campaign arm took in $11.64 million last month, compared to $6.8 million for the Republican counterpart. The NRCC has $49.8 million cash on hand, compared to the DCCC's $39.97 million.
House GOPers kick in $3.2 million for home stretch: Members ponied up at a conference meeting yesterday morning. Jake Sherman scoops: http://goo.gl/qExl3.

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

RNC PULLS STAFF FROM NEW MEXICO: "Party officials confirmed Wednesday that the GOP Victory campaign's director, Hispanic outreach director and communications director will be transferred to more competitive states as part of a shift in the Republican National Committee's resources," the AP reports. "They emphasized, however, that all of the state campaign offices will remain open and staffed through the election." A spokeswoman says some New Mexico staffers are being redeployed to Colorado and Nevada. http://goo.gl/nZjMu

EARLY VOTING STARTS TODAY in South Dakota and Idaho. http://goo.gl/Tqq7l.

NOTABLE: It looks increasingly likely that Romney and Ryan will be the first ticket since 1972 to lose both their home states: http://goo.gl/IuG3O.

SWING STATE HEADLINES-

The Washington Post: "Conservative groups reaching new levels of sophistication in mobilizing voters." http://goo.gl/NI3Ub

AP: "Black women rally against voter ID laws." http://goo.gl/wJFLS

Columbus Dispatch: "Median income in Ohio hits 27-year low." http://goo.gl/OnmyV

Cleveland Plain Dealer: "Portman stands with Romney's '47 percent' explanation." http://goo.gl/mHWEA

Tampa Bay Times: "47-percenters share low income but not outlook on Romney." http://goo.gl/ueHnL

Miami Herald blog: "Wayyyyy down in the FL Jewish vote v. Obama, conservative group plays the Netanyahu card." http://goo.gl/bYF0o

Wall Street Journal: "Incomes Fell or Stagnated in Most States Last Year." http://goo.gl/UbOUM

FOX31 (Denver): "Romney's Denver event to mark 1st Colorado stop in 7 weeks." http://goo.gl/e3eUD

Denver Post: "Obama easily tops past presidential visits to Colorado; President's first-term visits to Colorado outdo any chief executive in the last 40 years." http://goo.gl/taog0

Des Moines Register: "Christie, praised by Branstad, tells Iowa GOP Nov. 6 offers 'golden opportunity.'" http://goo.gl/YyFBC

Des Moines Register: "3 charged with election misconduct; DCI says 2 Canadian citizens and 1 Mexican citizen registered and voted." http://goo.gl/g2ZL0

Sioux City Journal: "Santorum returns to Sioux City for a Constitution celebration." http://goo.gl/C5TX5

Concord Monitor: "Downtown streets to close for Biden's visit." http://goo.gl/RGaZT

Detroit Free Press: "Michigan's kids suffer as incomes fall, poverty climbs." http://goo.gl/PmFHY

Philadelphia Inquirer: "Reading no longer country's poorest city." http://goo.gl/bt6U2

Star Tribune: Michele "Bachmann country is now a battleground." http://goo.gl/DxagH

THE SENATE - NO ROMNEY COATTAILS FOR DOWN-TICKET REPUBLICANS: "Nervous GOP strategists are now principally focused on a group of seats located well outside the presidential swing states, in Republican-leaning states like North Dakota and Montana and Democratic states like Massachusetts, Connecticut and Maine," "Party strategists repeatedly pointed to Senate races in Ohio, Florida and Virginia as places where a more robust presidential ticket could have helped flip Democratic-held Senate seats. Instead, Romney appears to be at least slightly trailing Obama in all three states, forcing Senate candidates to run ahead of their presidential nominee in order to win. In two other states, Republican-held Nevada and Democratic-held Wisconsin GOP candidates are entering the fall locked in electoral dogfights, rather than clearly in the lead. And several Democratic-leaning states that Republicans once hoped to put in play have fallen off the map entirely. Democrats continue to compete on deeply conservative territory like North Dakota, but the GOP is no longer making a serious run at open Senate seats in New Mexico and Hawaii." http://goo.gl/TJDMP

JON STEWART TO BILL CLINTON: "So, give any good speeches lately?"

SENTENCE DU JOUR - ABC's Jonathan Karl: "At one recent Texas fundraiser, a donor told Romney, 'I am happy to write a check, but why are you here? Shouldn't you be in Ohio?'"

LIGHTER CLICKS-

MITT ROMNEY gave about $200,000 in bonuses to senior employees just after the RNC: http://goo.gl/zwM1J.

BILL CLINTON went on Jon Stewart last night: http://goo.gl/Ywf7G

HERMAN CAIN said he'd have a "substantial lead" over Obama if he was the Republican nominee during an appearance in Florida: http://goo.gl/u2NLi.

THE CAST OF THE WEST WING reunited to cut a four-minute video for Michigan Supreme Court candidate Bridget Mary McCormack, whose sister played deputy national security adviser Kate Harper on the show: http://goo.gl/kvCUF.

SNL WEEKEND UPDATE did a Thursday edition to mock Fox & Friends: http://goo.gl/KYkVS.

MITT is imagined as an actor in a host of romantic comedy movie posters in this Tumblr page: http://goo.gl/NwWvS.

KATE UPTON appears on the cover of a new magazine called CR Fashion Book. The Daily Beast posts a behind-the-scenes video from the shoot: http://goo.gl/kk11y.

THE NATIONAL ZOO posts fun updates, videos and a livestream of the baby panda cub (who is the size of a stick of butter!): http://goo.gl/s8Giu.

JAY CARNEY told reporters on Air Force One yesterday that Obama thinks Teddy should be allowed to win the president's race at a Nats game: http://goo.gl/SFvEi.

TIM PAWLENTY will make $1.8 million annually as head of the Financial Services Roundtable. He starts November 1. http://goo.gl/V4pB5

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'Let's be blunt and acknowledge THE biggest threat to the world's biggest economy are the cranks and crazies that have taken over the Republican Party." - Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan http://goo.gl/J0pVh

[Andrew49]

Interesting item on the Tweet Machine:

Romney Releases 2011 Tax Returns and By His Own Words They 'Disqualify' Him From the Presidency!

In July, while traveling to Israel, Romney was asked about his taxes in an interview with ABC News' David Muir.

“I don’t pay more than are legally due. And frankly if I had paid more than are legally due, I don’t think I’d be qualified to become president. I’d think people would want me to follow the law and pay only what the tax code requires.”

The figures are all here: LINK

[Count Bobulescu]

Mitt Romney’s Imaginary Campaign

On Aug. 31, the night after the Clint Eastwood empty-chair colloquy at the Republican Convention, Jon Stewart identified the radioactive ingredient that would provide the fuel for Mitt Romney's September meltdown. The Republicans, he noted on The Daily Show, were suffering from "cognitive dissonance." Like Eastwood, they were campaigning against a Barack Obama who was a figment of their imagination. "There is a President Obama that only Republicans can see," he said. That Obama--the Muslim socialist foreigner--was "bent on our wholesale destruction." The mad fact is, Stewart was only scratching the surface. We now know that Romney has been running not only against an imaginary President but against an imaginary electorate as well. This is an electorate in which 47% are looking for handouts, don't pay income taxes and won't "take responsibility...for their lives."

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...#ixzz27Jr9aRfu

President Obama’s position inched forward in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Thursday. His chances of winning the Electoral College are 76.1 percent, according to the forecast, up from 75.2 percent on Wednesday. Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote also increased slightly, to 3.4 percentage points.

By and large, the story that Thursday’s polls told was the same one as on Wednesday. Mr. Obama continues to get very strong results in state polls that use industry-standard methodology, meaning that they use live interviews and place calls to mobile phones along with landlines.

In the 10 states that have generally been ranked the highest on our tipping-point list — Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Michigan — there have been 21 such polls since the Democratic convention ended. Mr. Obama has led in all 21 of these surveys — and usually by clear margins. On average, he has held a six-point lead in these surveys, and he has had close to 50 percent of the vote in them.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...e-receding/?hp

BOSTON — After one of their worst weeks of the general election campaign, Mitt Romney and his advisers are scrambling to refocus their message and make up ground lost to President Obama in several battleground states.
The mood around Romney’s Boston campaign headquarters with just over six weeks until Election Day is defiantly upbeat in the face of a series of setbacks. “Given everything we’ve gone through, everybody wants to count this guy out,” said Neil Newhouse, Romney campaign’s pollster. “And yet the poll numbers don’t do that. The poll numbers put him right in the middle of this.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z1

Jim Messina, President Obama’s campaign manager, spoke by conference call to more than 100 members of his Virginia staff last Sunday night to ask whether they’re meeting their door-knocking, phone-calling and voter-registering goals — and to urge them: “Now is the time to push even harder.”
The next night, the call was to Colorado. On Wednesday, he met privately with Senate Democrats on Capitol Hill to deliver a similar message. And on Saturday, he traveled to Wisconsin to meet with field organizers, neighborhood team leaders and other volunteers there.

“Ignore the polls,” Messina said on the call to Virginia, he recalled. “There are always going to be polls showing us up. There are always going to be polls showing us down. None of that matters. What matters is your voter contacts in your state.”
Messina’s sense of urgency might seem disingenuous in the current political environment. Republican Mitt Romney has lurched from one damaging moment to the next. Recent polls show him trailing Obama in pivotal states, including Ohio and Virginia. Privately, advisers say they believe they are winning — or at least on track to do so Nov. 6.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z1

Here’s a profile from the type of small town that doesn’t often get reported

Steubenville, Ohio — Hank Segle, 59, is one of Mitt Romney’s “47 percent.” He lives off a $982 monthly Social Security disability check and intends to vote in November for Barack Obama. He volunteers in the campaign office of the local Democratic Party, which beats sitting at home doing nothing.
“I can’t take this being-disabled stuff,” he says. “I can only watch so many episodes of ‘NCIS’ and ‘House.’ It’s driving me batty.”
This historic city is highly contested territory in what may be the most important swing state in the presidential race. Four years ago, voters in Jefferson County, which includes Steubenville, cast nearly 36,000 ballots for president, and Obama squeaked past John McCain by 76 votes. No Ohio county was so evenly split.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...y.html?hpid=z1

Early voting transforms electoral strategy 
As many as 40 percent of ballots may be cast before Nov. 6, and campaigns are targeting these voters.
Election Day is more than six weeks away, but by Nov. 6 tens of millions of Americans — perhaps as many as 40 percent of all voters — will have cast their ballots in the presidential race and other contests.
The robust growth in early voting, either by mailed absentee ballot or in person, has made it a critical element in the ground-game strategies of both major presidential campaigns. The traditional get-out-the vote push, once focused on a the final hours of a contest, has become an elaborate 45-day operation.
This year’s early balloting is underway, and by mid-to-late October it could yield indicators of the outcome. In North Carolina, nearly 3,000 ballots already have been returned by mail. On Friday, voters in South Dakota and Idaho began casting ballots in person.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...=nl_pmpolitics

Ryan Booed, Obama Cheered at AARP Conference

The audience reception for President Obama and Paul Ryan at Friday’s AARP convention couldn’t have differed more: Obama won cheers for discussing his signature health care law, while Ryan drew the most aggressively negative response he has faced as a GOP vice presidential candidate for vowing to repeal it. National Journal's Rebecca Kaplan and Sophie Quinton report.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...rence-20120921

With six weeks until Election Day, the presidential campaigns need to figure out where best to spend their money. Unfortunately for them, there are widely divergent theories about which states' voters have the most power to cast decisive votes.
On the surface, it would seem that voters in small battleground states are the most powerful, because each one commands a greater share of the Electoral College. The college is divided by state such that 438 electors are allocated proportionally by population but an additional 100 are divided equally among the states, giving small states a per-capita edge.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...=djemnumbers_t

THE MAP - "State of Play: Tide shifts to Obama in most competitive states," by AP's Charles Babington in D.C. and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines: "Despite a continuing gray economic sky and unrest in the Mideast, the president has edged ahead of Romney in polls in some of the most competitive states, including Iowa and Virginia, and forced Romney to redouble efforts in Florida and Ohio, without which he has little chance of becoming president. With about six weeks left before Election Day, ... Romney faces a problematic map, a ticking clock and a campaign demeanor that has failed to click with many voters. ...

"The polls show trouble rising for Romney almost everywhere he looks. He has fallen dangerously behind in Virginia and Ohio, and his ability to close in on Obama in Iowa and Wisconsin is now in doubt. The polls suggest that Romney must do more than inch his way up ... He must win overwhelming shares of undecided voters, maximize the GOP's turnout, and suppress Obama's turnout ... Republican campaign strategist Chris LaCivita of Virginia said the polls seem to be projecting a larger Democratic turnout than will materialize." http://yhoo.it/R7IWnA


BREAKING THROUGH: Seth Meyers on "Weekend Update" on "Saturday Night Live": "The 14 percent tax rate Romney paid is LESS than the 20 percent paid by the average American. How did he pay such a low rate? He claimed 47 percent of Americans as dependents." [Laughter] Video http://bit.ly/UFkIlY

THE JUICE - N.Y. Times col. 1, "AN EVANGELICAL BACK FROM EXILE, LIFTING ROMNEY - REED SEES AN OPENING," by Jo Becker in Duluth, Ga.: "Ralph Reed is clearly relishing his revival. ... [S]oon he plans to unleash a sophisticated, microtargeted get-out-the-evangelical-vote operation that he believes could nudge open a margin of victory if Mr. Romney can keep the race close. The other day, ... the preternaturally youthful evangelical operative, 51, propped his black ostrich cowboy boots on a coffee table and made what he admits seems an audacious prediction: that record numbers of socially conservative evangelical Protestants will turn out for the first presidential election in history without a Protestant on the Republican ticket. 'God,' he said with a laugh, 'has a sense of humor.' ...

"Reed has ... $10 million to $12 million from contributors across the Republican spectrum ... Three years ago, Mr. Reed formed the Faith and Freedom Coalition and began assembling what he calls the largest-ever database of reliably conservative religious voters. In the coming weeks, he says, each of those 17.1 million registered voters in 15 key states will receive three phone calls and at least three pieces of mail. Seven million of them will get e-mail and text messages. Two million will be visited by one of more than 5,000 volunteers. Over 25 million voter guides will be distributed in 117,000 churches." http://nyti.ms/PWwN1G

Money in Politics Under the New Rules (long read)

You may be one of those people who believe there is too much money in politics. (Polling suggests there are many such people—*a vast majority of Americans, in fact.) You may believe that the larger the financial contribution, the greater the chance it will corrupt your representative in Congress, or even your president. You may believe that there are too many political advertisements on television, too many groups with blandly patriotic names trying to change your mind about energy or Medicare or national defense. You may even believe that the nation’s founders would be repelled by the idea of corporations and billionaires pouring millions of dollars into political campaigns. It is reasonable—it is quite respectable—to believe these things.

But if you are one of these people, what you believe is turning out not to matter very much.

What Jim Bopp Jr. believes is turning out to matter a whole lot more, and he believes the exact opposite.

He believes in more money, bigger donations, more corporations and billion*aires and outside groups making more noise, openly or anonymously. He believes, in fact, that there can be no such thing as an “outside” group in American democracy—*he believes that’s the whole point of the republic.

It wasn’t so long ago that just about everyone who paid attention to how we pay for politics, whether liberal or conservative, thought Jim Bopp was nuts. They certainly thought so back when he first came storming out of the right-to-life movement in the 1980s, a no-name lawyer with a street-*corner practice in Indiana swinging the First Amendment like a hatchet, striking at the Federal Election Commission, then at state government after state government—150 cases and counting—and taking his cause to the Supreme Court itself. Where others saw reasonable limits on politicking, he saw shocking suppression of freedom of speech, whether the stage was as big as a presidential campaign or as small as a student-council race at the University of California at Irvine. (He once won a case for a student candidate who’d exceeded the university’s spending limits by shelling out too much at Kinko’s.)

http://www.nationaljournal.com/polit...0120922?page=1

[Count Bobulescu]

The Hill: Jewish Dems warn Netanyahu to stay out of US presidential election
By Julian Pecquet
Top Jewish Democrats are squarely standing by President Obama's decision not to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and warning Israel to butt out of the U.S. presidential race.

http://thehill.com/blogs/global-affa...of-us-election



SNIPING OVER CHINA-
ROMNEY AD - OBAMA HASN'T STEPPED UP FOR U.S. INTERESTS: "China is stealing American ideas and technology, everything from computers to fighter jets," a narrator says. "Seven times Obama could have taken action. Seven times he said no. His policies cost us two million jobs. Obama had years to stand up to China. We can't afford four more." Watch: http://goo.gl/D6Y86.

OBAMA MEMO - ROMNEY IS IN CHINA'S POCKET: "One of the many shocking revelations in Mitt Romney's 2011 tax return was that he invested more than $75,000 in shares of Cnooc Limited, the Chinese state-owned oil company. It wasn't until Romney decided that he was going to start talking tough on China in the context of his presidential campaign that he dumped the shares," campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt writes in a 5-page memo. "Romney harshly criticizes the Chinese for intellectual property theft. But his 2011 tax return revealed that he invested in a Chinese version of YouTube, which 'quickly became a haven for downloading illegal American content.' ... Romney holds a partnership interest in Bain Capital funds that are invested in GOME, a Chinese electronics company that is being sued by Microsoft for piracy, as well as in Uniview Technologies, which supplies the Chinese government with video surveillance systems." Read: http://goo.gl/rkXdx.


THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: Romney looks to spend less time fundraising and more time campaigning. He didn't get the reset he wanted last week because of the 47% video, but the campaign thinks they have a great opportunity in the next few days to lay the ground work for next Wednesday's debate. With that in mind, here are five questions for the week ahead:

(1) How much flak will Obama get for going on "The View" but skipping bilateral meetings with foreign leaders during the UN General Assembly?

(2) Will Obama's description of the firestorm in the Middle East as a "bump in the road" generate backlash on the campaign trail?

(3) Is Paul Ryan going to get more aggressive in the wake of Scott Walker's call for him to play a more out-front role?

(4) What will Romney do to narrow his 19-point deficit on which candidate is better for the middle class?

(5) What impact will the increasing perception outside the Beltway that Obama is winning have on voter enthusiasm?

INCREASING CONCERN THAT POTUS COULD LOSE FOREIGN POLICY EDGE: "From Middle East upheaval to the troubled Afghan war effort to a more assertive Russia," Reuters reports that "Obama is facing pressures that threaten to chip away at a foreign policy record his aides hoped would be immune to Republican attack. The White House is increasingly concerned but isn't hitting the panic button, yet. Administration officials are heartened by [Romney's] own recent foreign policy stumbles and doubt Obama's critics will gain traction in a campaign focused mainly on the U.S. economy. As a result, when Obama speaks inside the cavernous U.N. General Assembly hall on Tuesday exactly six weeks before the U.S. election, he will seek to reassure American voters as well as world leaders he is on top of the latest global challenges. But he won't propose any new remedies or bold initiatives." http://goo.gl/ZIBGZ

ANDREW SULLIVAN on cover of Newsweek, "The Democrats' Reagan: What Obama Will Achieve in His Second Term ": "If Obama wins, ... he will become the Democrats' Reagan. ... He will emerge as an iconic figure who struggled through a recession and a terrorized world, reshaping the economy within it, passing universal health care, strafing the ranks of al -Qaeda, presiding over a civil-rights revolution, and then enjoying the fruits of the recovery. ... An Obama victory would also resolve the three-decade-long battle between taxes and spending initiated by Reagan and intensified by the orgy of spending under George W. Bush and the collapse of revenue during the Great Recession. ...

"Obama's long game was designed for this climactic moment. When it became clear last summer that a grand bargain was impossible, Obama cut a deal that would put the Pentagon, the Bush tax era, and popular entitlements simultaneously on the chopping block after the election ... If the GOP refuses to budge, they lose two of their most treasured policies: big defense spending and Bush's tax legacy. And they could be blamed for the resulting economic damage. In some ways, Obama's second term could be fiscally defined by the last two months of his first.

"If a grand bargain eludes both sides, there's still a fallback for Obama: a 1986-style tax reform along bipartisan lines. Obama wants it; Ryan wants it. There will be differences in emphasis, of course-and, for what it's worth, I favor as radical an overhaul as possible, not simply to make the tax code understandable to everyone, but also to push back against the countless locust lobbyists who get paid a fortune to rig it. Tax reform would also provide a way to raise revenue without raising rates, helping both parties and the economy. Obama would be wise to aim for it-just as Reagan did." http://bit.ly/Q0Tf9O

Litigation has snared Texas’ plan to purge the dead from voter rolls. “Texas’ effort to clear the dead from its voting rolls is being challenged in state court, in the latest dust-up over who can cast votes this election season…Gov. Rick Perry recently asked county officials to send out written notices to Texans who might be deceased based on Social Security death records. The notices said people could be removed from the rolls if they didn’t verify within 30 days that they were alive and eligible to vote…But many people receiving the notices are in fact not dead, and a group of them in Austin sued, contending that the state initiative improperly risks disenfranchising voters.” Nathan Koppel and Tom Fowler in The Wall Street Journal.

Studies show that in-person voting fraud is extremely rare. “A new nationwide analysis of more than 2,000 cases of alleged election fraud over the past dozen years shows that in-person voter impersonation on Election Day, which has prompted 37 state legislatures to enact or consider tougher voter ID laws, was virtually nonexistent. The analysis of 2,068 reported fraud cases by News21, a Carnegie-Knight investigative reporting project, found 10 cases of alleged in-person voter impersonation since 2000. With 146 million registered voters in the United States, those represent about one for every 15 million prospective voters...The analysis found that there is more alleged fraud in absentee ballots and voter registration than in any of the other categories.” Natasha Khan and Corbin Carson in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Conservatives pretend otherwise. “It might as well be Harry Potter's invisible Knight Bus, because no one can prove it exists. The bus has been repeatedly cited by True the Vote, a national group focused on voter fraud. Catherine Engelbrecht, the group's leader, told a gathering in July about buses carrying dozens of voters showing up at polling places during the recent Wisconsin recall election…Officials in both San Diego and Wisconsin said they had no evidence that the buses were real…The buses are part of the election fraud gospel according to True the Vote, which is mobilizing a small army of volunteers to combat what it sees as a force out to subvert elections…True the Vote's plan is to scrutinize the validity of voter registration rolls and voters who appear at the polls. Among those in their cross hairs: noncitizens who are registered to vote, those without proper identification, others who may be registered twice, and dead people.” Stephanie Saul in The New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/17/us...wpisrc=nl_wonk


There are several challenges in progress to new voter laws on grounds of effective or potential disenfranchisement. “Legal battles across the nation over who is eligible to vote and whether and how their ballots will be counted are far from settled, even as early voting in some states is set to begin this month…[A] series of court decisions and appeals [] illustrate the murky nature of the nation's voting debate…Democrats, minority groups and civil rights organizations have had a successful few weeks challenging an unprecedented number of voting-law changes enacted largely by Republican-led states where officials said they were trying to prevent voter fraud.” Robert Barnes in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...wpisrc=nl_wonk

NOAH: Where voter suppression fits into Romney’s theory of the race. ”Like all great works of literature, Mitt Romney's peroration on the unwashed 47 percent requires multiple readings if you want to appreciate its rich complexity. One meaning that eluded me initially was its implicit rationale for the voter suppression Republicans are promoting in the name of fighting election fraud. If ‘there are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what’ because they are ‘dependent upon government’ and "believe that they are victims’ who ‘are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it,’ and if the only sensible thing for Romney to do is ‘not to worry about those people’ because ‘I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives’ — if all that is true, then ignoring them really isn't going to be enough. Not if they constitute fully 47 percent of the electorate. You need to block their path to the polls. Nothing too overt here — just a little petty harassment. They aren't the best-organized people to begin with, so all you have to do is shut down their ministers' souls-to-polls bus operations on Sundays, require a driver's license and maybe even proof of citizenship. That sort of thing.” Timothy Noah in The New Republic.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/107471...wpisrc=nl_wonk

SUNDAY SHOW HIGHLIGHTS-

David Gregory and Chris Wallace publicly pressed Obama yesterday to sit down with them: http://goo.gl/Z7WLp.

Bill Clinton claimed on CBS that he has "no earthly idea" what Hillary will decide to do in 2016: http://goo.gl/e92Td.

Scott Walker wants Romney to be more aggressive and passionate on the trail ("fire in the belly," he called it on Fox). He also would like Ryan to have a bigger role on the trail. http://goo.gl/XNqc5

Lindsey Graham said the 47% comment and the tax returns won't move votes on CNN: http://goo.gl/eMAan.

Reince Priebus gives Peggy Noonan and other critics little "leeway" because he's concerned about the future of the country: http://goo.gl/TDc1t.

Kelly Ayotte said on Meet the Press that the 47% comment was "political analysis at a fundraiser...not a governing philosophy." Deval Patrick said during their debate that the bigger question than Romney's tax returns is what Romney does with the country's taxes. Watch: http://goo.gl/M8gUe.

David Brooks called Romney "the least popular candidate in history" on Meet the Press' panel: http://goo.gl/OQRTD.

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

EARLY VOTING BEGINS IN EARNEST THIS WEEK: "By the end of September, voters in 30 states will start casting early or absentee ballots," Emily Schultheis and Ginger Gibson report. "Absentee ballots have been mailed out in key swing states like North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. In South Dakota and Idaho - firmly red states - early voting began Friday, and in-person early voting in the crucial swing state of Iowa begins this Thursday." http://goo.gl/tr0IR

STUDY SAYS 10 MILLION HISPANICS COULD BE DISENFRANCHISED: "New voting laws in 23 of the 50 states could keep more than 10 million Hispanic U.S. citizens from registering and voting," a study being released today by the Advancement Project says, according to Reuters. http://goo.gl/cKtMo

NO NEBRASKA REPEAT FOR OBAMA: Republicans have redrawn the second congressional district to make it redder, which means Obama is virtually certain not to carry the one electoral vote out of the state that he did four years ago: http://goo.gl/Jr3vh.

LIGHTER CLICKS -

SNL made fun of dumb undecided voters (http://goo.gl/sgi6X), Obama's comment that you can't change Washington from the inside (http://goo.gl/vzSDH) and Ann Romney (http://goo.gl/PmHOu).

"GAME CHANGE" (including the actors) won five Emmy's last night: http://goo.gl/gUUgB.

JON STEWART got tackled by Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Kimmel after he again won the Emmy for best variety show (it was a joke): http://goo.gl/jF8JW.

TOM DONILON, the National Security Adviser, is profiled on A1 of today's New York Times: http://goo.gl/SSfjq.

RICHARD NIXON delivered his "Checkers" TV address 60 years ago yesterday. Lee Huebner, former publisher of the International Herald Tribune and a speechwriter in the Nixon White House, reflects in the Atlantic: http://goo.gl/wf8I8.

RICK PERRY had a serious but previously undiagnosed sleep disorder that ailed his presidential campaign, the Texas Tribune's Jay Root says in a new eBook: http://goo.gl/v5gmO.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Go Trojans!" -Egypt's Islamist President, Mohamed Morsi, reminisces on his graduate study at the University of Southern California in an interview with the New York Times http://goo.gl/Xoljk

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls (national).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

State by State polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/


The New York Times: A GOP reunion, with plans for more togetherness
By Richard A. Oppel, Jr. and Ashley Parker
The Republican ticket will start campaigning together more often, which suggests that aides fear that Mitt Romney, on his own, is not generating enough attention and excitement.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us...oc.semityn.www

Associated Press: New ID laws could delay outcome of close election
By Stephen Ohlemacher 
The presidential election is Nov. 6, but it could take days to figure out the winner if the vote is close. New voting laws are likely to increase the number of people who have to cast provisional ballots in key states.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...09-26-03-49-18


Pollsters Suggest Race Stabilizing in Obama’s Favor

By Charlie Cook

The presidential race remains remarkably stable, which is good news for President Obama and Democrats and bad news for Mitt Romney and Republicans.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...favor-20120925

Polls: Obama Holds Big Leads in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania
President Obama now holds his largest leads to date in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to three new CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University polls released early Wednesday. The polls all show Obama easily clearing the critical 50-percent threshold in each state, largely as a result of his commanding advantage among female voters, reports Hotline's Steven Shepard.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//poli...0120926?page=1


OBAMA OPENING BIG LEADS: New CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac polls out this morning put Obama up 10 in Ohio (53-43), 12 in Pennsylvania (54-42) and 9 in Florida (53-44) among likely voters. The Washington Post has Obama up 8 in Ohio (52-44) and 4 in Florida (51-47). Democratic Senate candidates in both battlegrounds look even stronger: Bill Nelson's up 54-40. Sherrod Brown's up 53-41. CBS: http://goo.gl/2zjNn. NYT: http://goo.gl/LnOYT. Quinnipiac: http://goo.gl/GZu3P. WaPo: http://goo.gl/IR00N.

SIREN - N.Y. Times, lead of "Election 2012" page, "Polls Show Obama Is Widening His Lead in Ohio and Florida," by Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny : "The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac University and CBS News, is tracking the presidential race with recurring polls in six states. In Ohio - which no Republican has won the presidency without - Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney 53 percent to 43 percent in the poll. In Florida, the president leads Mr. Romney 53 to 44 percent in the poll. The surveys, which had margins of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for each candidate, also included a Pennsylvania poll, where Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by 12 percentage points." http://nyti.ms/PFk0CD

-"Criticism of Romney's Campaign Grows; Six in 10 Rate His Efforts Negatively," by ABC's Gary Langer : "Sixty-one percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll hold an unfavorable view of how Romney's handling his presidential campaign, up by 12 percentage points since mid-July. Far fewer, 35 percent, rate Romney's performance positively ... Obama's ratings for handling his campaign are ... 54-43 percent, favorable-unfavorable. And while ratings of Romney's campaign have grown more negative, favorable ratings of Obama's campaign efforts have gained 8 points since July. These ratings follow controversy last week about Romney's remark at a Florida fundraiser that 47 percent of Americans don't pay income taxes ...

"Fifty-four percent ... see his 'recent comments about people who don't pay income taxes' negatively; 32 percent respond favorably, with the rest unsure. ... In a sign of particular trouble for Romney, negative views of his campaign have grown by 18 points since midsummer among independents, who often are swing voters. In July, 46 percent of independents rated Romney's handling of his campaign negatively; it's 64 percent today. Romney's positive score among independents, at 32 percent, far trails Obama's, 50 percent." http://abcn.ws/VH4wAc

MITT OOZES EMPATHY IN NEW AD: "President Obama and I both care about poor and middle-class families. The difference is my policies will make things better for them," Romney says, looking straight into the camera, in a new commercial that appears aimed at limiting the fallout over the 47% and eating into Obama's lead on the question of who understands people like. "We shouldn't measure compassion by how many people are on welfare. We should measure compassion by how many people are able to get off welfare and get a good paying job. My plan will create 12 million new jobs over the next four years-helping lift families out of poverty and strengthening the middle class." http://goo.gl/LO897

MESSAGING-

OBAMA WILL PUSH EARLY VOTING TODAY: It starts in six days in Ohio. At both events today, POTUS will encourage people to vote early starting October 2 and to register to vote before Ohio's October 9 voter registration deadline.

ROMNEY BRACKETING: Boston has a mobile billboard roaming Bowling Green to highlight "how President Obama's failed Ohio's college students" as he speaks on two more campuses. Photo of the billboard: http://goo.gl/i4nG9. RNC Research prepared a 20-page customized document on why Obama is "wrong for Ohio": http://goo.gl/lVQNE.

RNC POUNDS ON LIBYA-"Why won't President Obama call this a terrorist attack?" That's the tagline on a 1-minute video that juxtaposes clips of a cautious Obama using measured language to explain the attack on the embassy in Libya during his sitdown on The View against Hillary Clinton saying "what happened in Benghazi was a terrorist attack." Watch: http://goo.gl/eteiH.

CHINA SNIPING CONTINUES-

OBAMA VIDEO CALLS ROMNEY A HYPOCRITE: "Romney invested in the Chinese version of YouTube - a haven for stealing American videos," a narrator says in a 30-second web video that could run as a commercial later. "Romney's even invested in a Chinese electronics company being sued by Microsoft for pirating its software! If Romney really wanted China to stop stealing, why would he send them his money?" Watch: http://goo.gl/zS7zN.

POTUS WILL PERSONALLY ATTACK ON THE STUMP: "The President will talk about his record of holding China accountable so that American workers can compete globally while Mitt Romney has continued to profit from companies that ship jobs to China," per a campaign official. "The Obama Administration has taken action to hold China accountable, bringing more trade cases against China in one term than the previous administration did in two - and we've been winning. And while Governor Romney said stopping an unfair surge in Chines tires would be bad for our workers, the President politely declined that advice and protected more than 1,000 American jobs."

BOSTON GLOBE STORY GIVES CHICAGO FODDER: "Less than two weeks before an investment firm controlled by Mitt Romney decided to invest in a China-based home appliance company, the company put out a detailed document to investors promoting itself as a low-wage, low-tax firm that would not be subject to taxes in the United States," Matt Viser reports. "It used 'inexpensive labor,' Global-Tech Appliances wrote in a prospectus meant to attract investors on April 8, 1998. Its location in China meant 'an overall effective tax rate that may be less than that of US corporations.' It said its current operations would not be subject to 'material US taxes because it should not be considered to have significant income effectively connected with a trade or business in the US.'" The SEC documents were first reported by Mother Jones: http://goo.gl/9mI02.

DEBATE PREP-

10 QUESTIONS: Jim Lehrer's job next Wednesday is to make two of the most scripted and steady debaters in politics break stride and make some news when they face off in Denver. It's not easy, but it can be done - by lobbing questions the candidates themselves would hate to hear. Not exactly "gotchas." More like the bona fide head-scratchers they've struggled to answer through the whole campaign - either because their usual talking points don't fly or because they can't quite square past positions with current stances. Here is my list of the 10 questions I'd love to see Lehrer put to Obama and Romney: http://goo.gl/Mshai.

OBAMA's prep retreat starts on Sunday in Nevada: "Obama has already canceled some debate preparation because of events in the Middle East," his campaign press secretary tells the LA Times. He set aside three days for practice: http://goo.gl/JpX1M.

THE THRILL IS GONE - CHICAGO VOTER REGISTRATION DOWN FROM 2008: "The hometown buzz among young voters surrounding President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign isn't as strong this time out, if Chicago voter registration is any indication," the president's hometown paper, the Chicago Tribune, reports today. "There are 138,000 fewer people signed up to vote in the 18-to-34-year-old group than the city ended up with four years ago, election officials said. In suburban Cook County, there are 50,000 fewer voters in that age group compared with the last presidential election." http://goo.gl/Jwy74

SOFT SUPPORT FROM WHITE MEN IN THE RUST BELT: "White men are significant and they are in play," Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, who for 30 years has closely tracked the political migration patterns of white working-class men, tells Lois Romano. "They swung to Obama in 2008 and they swung back Republican in 2010. Now there is evidence that they might be swinging back because they have doubts about Mitt Romney." Historical context: "Since 1972, white men have voted roughly 60-40 percent in favor of the Republican in presidential elections. The exception was 1976, when Democratic Southerner Jimmy Carter attracted 48 percent of the white male vote. Then In 2008, Obama surpassed Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry's numbers, winning 41 percent of the white male vote nationally. But by 2010, white male support had shrunk back to 37 percent - a precarious landing spot for the president." http://goo.gl/FfC1O

OCTOBER SURPRISES-Thanks to everyone who sent ideas on some possible developments that could impact the dynamic of the race. Here are some thought-provoking possibilities:

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE POPS TO 9%--DC-based economist Logan Cobb suggests the possibility of an eye-popping increase in the unemployment rate. We get jobs reports next Friday and then the Friday before the election. Discouraged workers begin to re-enter the labor force when they think the economy is on the upswing, which many do. But those unable to find a job are again counted as unemployed. And the job market is not strong enough to absorb them, so many could be. "Any change in the employment situation as drastic as I outlined above will be slower than two months," Logan says. "However, there is the potential for an increase of several tenths of a percentage point before the election. A very rapid increase in the number of discouraged workers returning to the labor force, one just this side of implausible, could see a 0.9% increase over the next two months, raising the UER to 9.0%." More from Logan's email here: http://goo.gl/O2db0.

A SUPER PAC GOES ROGUE-University of Virginia Center for Politics analyst Kyle Kondik: "Given the level of animus toward the president, and the Wild Wild West of campaign finance, one could imagine someone picking up the old Ricketts plan and doing some rather low-brow attacks on Obama, dredging up Rev. Wright, the birth certificate, etc. I don't think it would actually work, but if someone was mad enough - and rich enough - they could intervene in the race and say just about anything they pleased, right? In fact, there's an obvious person who could attract the attention to do it - Trump. Plus, if Obama continues to be perceived as the leader - and Republicans continue to voice their off-the-record concerns about the campaign - there's going to be less pressure for Republicans of all stripes to stay on the reservation. That would seem to open the door to a real 'Maverick' to attack Obama on whatever grounds he or she wanted."

BIN LADEN PHOTO SURFACES-A Republican strategist: "I am confident that one October surprise will be the 'leaks' of the Osama Bin Laden death photos. Been a big theme of the campaign."

VPOTUS GOES ROGUE-Michael Kronley (tongue-in-cheek): "Biden speech on controlling business widely hailed until POLITICO reveals it was first delivered by Teddy Roosevelt in 1911."


LIGHTER CLICKS -

ANN ROMNEY made her first appearance on Jay Leno last night. Part 1: http://goo.gl/3nCVW. Part 2: http://goo.gl/YIhxK.

JON STEWART said Obama's "the luckiest guy on the plant" in a segment on Romney missteps: http://goo.gl/zGJON.

CONAN made fun of Elizabeth Hasselback's questions to Obama on The View: http://goo.gl/HzlhG.

NEW JERSEY'S STATE SENATE PRESIDENT wants a ban on using replacement refs in pro sports: http://goo.gl/0WdSk.

MADONNA says she was being "ironic" when she celebrated Obama as a Muslim at her concert Monday night, clarifying in a statement yesterday that she knows he's not ("though I know that plenty of people in this country think he is"): http://goo.gl/NrhVu.

68 MEMBERS OF CONGRESS do not have Twitter accounts: http://goo.gl/b7ZSa.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Are you aware that Mitt Romney never ceases to attack socialist Europe at his campaign rallies? Yes, that's why I'll be careful not to say anything at all on this subject because, as you'd imagine, if a socialist supported one of these two candidates, that could cost him dear. So I suppose I should endorse Mitt Romney. But I won't." - France's socialist President Francois Hollande at the UN http://goo.gl/tXBm1

[Count Bobulescu]

Amid Surge, Obama Camp Guards Against Overconfidence
By Steven T. Dennis
Polls continued to shift strongly in President Barack Obama's favor Wednesday, with the president opening up a 6-point lead in the Gallup tracking poll. He has even bigger leads in some polls in key swing states, including in Ohio, where both he and GOP challenger Mitt Romney campaigned Wednesday. Full Story

http://atr.rollcall.com/amid-surge-o...verconfidence/


The Hill: Gallup daily poll shows Obama stretching lead to 50-44 over Romney 
By Jonathan Easley 
A string of polls in September has shown Obama pulling away, in some cases by as many as 8 points.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...nts-nationally

The Hill: Romney tells voters 'don't be expecting a huge cut in taxes' 
By Bernie Becker 
"Don’t be expecting a huge cut in taxes, because I’m also going to lower deductions and exemptions,” Romney said.

http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-mone...h-of-a-tax-cut


The Hill: Obama: Romney’s ‘tough talk’ on China is like a fox guarding the chicken coop 
By Alicia M. Cohn
Obama dismissed Romney’s “newfound outrage,” hitting the GOP nominee for profiting for years from sending jobs to China.

http://thehill.com/video/campaign/25...cting-chickens


The New York Times: Super PACs are finally drawing Dems in
 By Nicholas Confessore With the election just weeks away, Democratic “super PACs” are getting the kind of wealthy donors who have made Republican outside groups a pivotal force.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/27/us...rats.html?_r=1


Washington Post: Obama, Romney differ on US exceptionalism
 By Scott Wilson 
President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney made clear this week that they share an overriding belief: American political and economic values should triumph in the world.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...3bf_story.html


Analysis: How a Romney Loss Would Impact the GOP
The fallout from a Romney loss has the potential to reverberate through the Republican Party for a decade, as Hotline's Reid Wilson writes.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...e-gop-20120927

Election Year Economics: All How You Look at It
President Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney seem to be living in alternate economic realities. In Obama’s world, his policies led the economy out of the worst recession since the Great Depression and lay out a balanced approach to deficit reduction. In Romney’s world, Obama’s policies have been a drag on the economy and will eventually make the country as debt-laden as Greece, as National Journal's Sophie Quinton reports.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/white...at-it-20120927


Analysis: Five Key Myths About Campaigns
National Journal columnist Matthew Dowd has some mythbusting to share when it comes to campaigns. Myth number one: Campaigns are about issues or personality traits.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...aigns-20120923

CONVERSATION NATION: NEGATIVE TALK ABOUT ROMNEY AT RECORD HIGH. Negative talk about Romney hit its highest level of the campaign—52 percent—in the days following the leak of controversial video of Romney at a private fundraiser, according to NJ’s latest Conversation Nation poll. That’s twice as high as the 26 percent of positive conversations about the Republican nominee, writes NJ’s Ben Schreckinger. Read more

http://nationaljournal.com/conversat...video-20120926


WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF ROMNEY LOSES. If Romney loses the presidential race, conservatives who now blame pollsters and the media for Romney’s problems will shift the blame to the candidate himself and the Washington establishment that supported him. The activist class is already angry and their ire will only grow, writes Hotline’s Reid Wilson. The impact could reverberate for a decade.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/colum...e-gop-20120927

”Obama leading Romney by 9 in Fla? No way.” — Adam C. Smith, Tampa Bay Times

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-bu...?wpisrc=nl_fix


“Mitt Romney looking to make up ground in Ohio” — Dan Balz, Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...&wpisrc=nl_fix



“Obama, Romney differ on U.S. exceptionalism” — Scott Wilson, Washington Post

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...&wpisrc=nl_fix




Ezra Klein in Bloomberg View on the uninformed undecided voter Undecided voters "aren’t so much 'undecided' as uninterested and, frankly, uninformed," Klein writes. One study showed more than 40 percent of undecided voters didn't even know what Joe Biden's job was. They aren't as interested in the election and are unlikely to decide it. So a Romney win "will probably require changing minds that are already made up, or increasing (or suppressing) turnout among base voters."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-election.html


Debra Saunders in San Francisco Chronicle on the myth of Obama's obstacles This week, Obama brought up Mitch McConnell's quote about wanting Obama to be a one-term president. But the idea that Republicans never supported him is political mythology. McConnell said the quote after Obama had implemented several policies, and in the same interview, he said he was willing to meet Obama halfway. "In 2012, Democrats are distorting the facts to argue that their president never stood a chance against that evil genius, Mitch McConnell," Saunders writes.

http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/saunde...es-3897311.php


Charles M. Blow in The New York Times on the knowns, unknowns, and unknowables Blow uses the old Donald Rumsfeld riff about knowns, unknowns, and unknowables to address this election: We know "Mitt Romney is running out of time. His path to victory is growing narrow and dark." We don't know how accurate polls are in tracking "likely voters." And then the unknowable: "Something in me always believes that there is a bombshell waiting to be revealed, a trump card up someone’s sleeve that he or she is waiting until the last moment to play.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.c...nknowables/?hp

Good Thursday morning. THE "LIAR, LIAR" DEBATE: Republicans have telegraphed an umbrella attack/response line that Mitt Romney will use on President Obama at their debut debate next Wednesday at the University of Denver: that he has a Pinocchio problem. Romney told George Stephanopoulos on "Good Morning America" earlier this month:

"I think he's going to say a lot of things that aren't accurate . ... I'd be tempted to go back to that wonderful line by Ronald Reagan, 'There you go again.' But ... I doubt we're going to pull out something from Ronald Reagan. He's one of a kind. But [t]he challenge that I'll have in the debate is that the president tends to -- How shall I say it? -- to say things that aren't true ... in attacking his opponents. I've looked at prior debates. And in that kind of case, it's difficult to say, 'Well, am I going to spend my time correcting things that aren't quite accurate? Or am I going to spend my time talking about the things I want to talk about?' And that's the challenge."

This week, when POLITICO's Alexander Trowbridge asked Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), how is playing Obama in Romney's debate prep, if the president had a particular debate trick that opponents should watch out for, the senator replied that Obama is good at "explaining the issue from his perspective, hedging on the truth sometimes by doing so."

Then this morning. Karl Rove's column in The Wall Street Journal is, "Obama's Biggest Opponent Is the Truth": "Every day, it seems, he attempts to disqualify his opponent through deliberate and undeniable falsehoods. ... Romney must call out the president. ... Mr. Romney can't call Mr. Obama a liar; that's too harsh a word that would backfire. Mr. Romney must instead set the record straight in a presidential tone-firm, respectful, but not deferential. And a dash of humor is worth its weight in gold.

"While Mr. Romney must point out the president's misrepresentations, he can't take on the role of fact-checker-in-chief. He should deal comprehensively with several of Mr. Obama's untruths and, having done so, dismiss the rest as more of the same. By carefully calling into question the president's veracity, Mr. Romney will have the opportunity to provide context: Mr. Obama doesn't shoot straight because he can't defend his record and has no agenda for the future except the status quo, stay the course." http://on.wsj.com/SDfxnz

AIR WARS -- WashPost 1-col. lead, "Obama has an edge in ad rates: MORE CASH IN HIS DIRECT CONTROL -- Pro-Romney groups must pay higher prices," by Dan Eggen: "In one Ohio ad buy slated to run just before the election,

... Obama is paying $125 for a spot that is costing a conservative super PAC $900. The imbalance could prove crucial over the next six weeks, when the candidates and their allies are expected to burn through about $1 billion worth of advertising in battleground states ... Republicans, who have more cash overall, say they expect to dominate the airwaves ... Romney and his allies may have fewer resources than it appears, since much of what they do from here will be more expensive. ..
.
"Most of the ads aired by Republican groups since the spring have been scattershot in location and theme, often clashing with the messages pushed by the Romney campaign. During the last week of August, ... there were at least eight pro-Romney television commercials ... on topics including Medicare, welfare policy, jobs, debt and Obama's 'hope and change' message from 2008. The Obama camp, meanwhile, has drowned Ohio, Virginia and other swing states with commercials focused on defining Romney as an out-of-touch plutocrat." http://wapo.st/SSGJcU

DEBATE PREP-

THE NARRATIVE - NEXT WEDNESDAY IS MITT'S DO-OR-DIE MOMENT: "Republicans, fretting about dwindling days for Romney to turn around his campaign, fear that if their nominee doesn't come away with a decisive first-debate victory, he'll continue to spiral downward and lose his last, best shot for a comeback," Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman write in the story leading our site. "The fear among donors and strategists: a break-even or so-so performance would subject Romney to a self-reinforcing cycle of criticism and pessimism in his own party that will send other Republicans fleeing and make it difficult for Romney to project a closing argument against Obama over the drumbeat of why-are-you-losing questions. So the Mile-High face-off has gone from merely important to critical for a challenger in need of a break." Debate: http://goo.gl/YiYBq. Alex Burns on the push for Romney to talk more about the future: http://goo.gl/Naxjq.

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

SABATO MOVES 5 STATES FROM "TOSS UP" TO "LEAN" OBAMA: Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. "Our changes push Obama over the magic 270 mark, but we are not calling the race...caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment ," Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley write on the University of Virginia's Crystal Ball blog. On the Senate, they made a bunch of rating changes mostly favorable to the Democrats. He sees a 49-45 Democratic lead with six toss-ups: Connecticut, Indiana, Massachusetts, Nevada, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Republicans need to sweep all six to win the Senate outright. As of today, they would project that Democrats would win two of the six toss-ups, good enough for a 51-49 edge. They're also bumping up the House to D+6, up from D+4 last week. David River has gone from Leans R to leans D. http://goo.gl/5eoH3

LIGHTER CLICKS -

DAVID CAMERON, the British Prime Minister, failed a mock citizenship test on David Letterman's show last night. It's blowing up over there. Here's the Guardian story (with 90-second video clip embedded): http://goo.gl/IBaeG.

SAMUEL L. JACKSON cuts a profanity-laced video for a super PAC supporting Obama. Via the New York Post: http://goo.gl/WgTtg.

JAY LENO made fun of Biden and how he might debate last night: http://goo.gl/PM2T5.


JON STEWART did a sketch on the ref strike last night, replacing John Oliver with Patrick Stewart: http://goo.gl/Lj0Va.

5 ROAD WARRIORS (Rob Portman, Kevin Madden, Dan Balz, Jim Acosta and Jan Crawford) give campaign survival tips in Ohio. Video by Alexander Trowbridge: http://goo.gl/I4u8R.

10 GREAT DEBATE MOMENTS via Lois Romano: http://goo.gl/ieCYs.

THE AP imposed a quota on fact-checking Michele Bachmann during some of the GOP primary debates so that critiques of her comments would not overwhelm their stories: http://goo.gl/VpNQh.

MIKE ROWE, the host of "Dirty Jobs" on the Discovery Channel, appeared alongside Romney in Ohio yesterday: http://goo.gl/M81gV.

JACK NICKLAUS is the "greatest athlete of the 20th century," Romney said in Ohio yesterday: http://goo.gl/XyxyZ.

CHELSEA CLINTON doesn't rule out running for office. 'In my own future, I don't know," she tells Time. "You asked me earlier about the next five years. In the next five years, I want to do the things I said I wanted to do - finish my PhD, help democratize CGI, continue to work on making the Foundation ever more effective and smart in what it does in the world, but, I don't know.' She said she gets recognized every day in NYC: http://goo.gl/MnQeT.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I had a brownie once. It made me sleepy." - Barney Frank talks with CNN about experimenting with marijuana. http://goo.gl/9WDE9

[Count Bobulescu]

THE FIX: Why Mitt Romney isn't going to get blown out
Amid a slew of polling that shows Obama opening up a lead over Romney, it's easy to conclude there's an electoral blowout in the making. But there's plenty of reasons why the race could narrow. 


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics

ALTER: How small money can matter again in politics. “A funny thing's happening on the way to Nov. 6. The billionaires trying to buy the U.S. election with contributions of $1 million, $10 million or even $100 million aren't succeeding. If trends continue and the Democrats have a good year (still a big if), the notion that in order to win candidates must accept gobs of money from super-political action committees will be discredited…The reason is that big money in politics has a competitor: small money in politics…Super-PACs can dominate the air war, but they have trouble buying ground troops. Political strategists know from experience that phone banks and canvass teams made up of low-wage hired help are far inferior to those using volunteers sincerely trying to persuade voters.

The reason the Obama campaign sends out so many irritating requests for $3 or $5 donations is that these solicitations do more than just raise cash. Once millions of small donors have a little skin in the game, they're much more likely to assist with registration and get-out-the-vote efforts.” Jonathan Alter in Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...wpisrc=nl_wonk

“Obama Fills in Blanks of Romney’s Plans, and G.O.P. Sees Falsehoods” — Michael Cooper, New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/28/us...wpisrc=nl_fix&




National Journal 
Charlie Cook's The Cook Report
Shades of 1996

Unless Mitt Romney turns around the presidential race—and soon—he could face a flight of GOP donors, just as Bob Dole did in 1996 when it became clear he wasn’t going to beat President Clinton.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...-1996-20120927

Mickey Edwards in The New York Times on how political parties have too much power The former Oklahoma Republican Congressman writes about the problems with party politics, from the existence of primaries to rampant redistricting. "In some ways our system has come to resemble those multi-party parliamentary systems in which the tail (relatively small groups of hard-liners) is able to wag the dog."

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.c...government/?hp

Timothy Egan in The New York Times on Romney's extreme position on public land "The public land endowment of the United States is one of the greatest perks of this democracy," Egan writes. Romney doesn't understand that and has supported efforts to end federal control over large parts of the West so that states can industrialize. People of all political leanings have "expressed astonishment that Romney had sided with his party’s most extreme fringe."

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com...hy-of-nope/?hp


Eugene Robinson in The Washington Post on "skewed" polls Conservatives seem to think polls are skewed toward Obama because they overrepresent Democrats. "So why is Romney acting like a man who’s behind rather than comfortably ahead? Because he’s smart enough to know that the conspiracy theory is nuts." GOP should be more worried that the polls are true, and more Americans are choosing to be Democrats.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...3bf_story.html

Craig Unger in Salon on how Karl Rove is losing it Rove may be GOP boss, but it's clear he's lost it with this election. His Todd Akin/murder comment reopened a schism between the GOP and the Tea Party, "which has begun to see him as a ruthless party boss." "If the Svengali-like party boss behind Romney has fallen to such depths, it should come as no surprise that the candidate himself has performed so poorly."

http://www.salon.com/2012/09/28/karl...ng_it_for_now/


POLL SAYS GOP LOSES HOPE ON SENATE TAKEOVER. Republicans no longer think they're going to retake the Senate, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, a stunning drop in optimism for a party that began 2012 confident it would regain control of the chamber. Only 4 percent of GOP insiders rate their chances as "high," a free fall in confidence from when Insiders were asked about Senate races in February and 66 percent of Republicans were bullish they'd win the four seats necessary to retake control. In September 2011, 79 percent thought so. Now, they say the field is disappointing. Read more

http://influencealley.nationaljourna...republican.php

IN DENVER DEBATE, ENERGY COULD TAKE CENTER STAGE. On the campaign trail, energy has become a lightning rod for partisan political attacks. In Colorado, energy is serious business—and what President Obama and Mitt Romney say about it when they meet in Denver for their first debate next week could influence undecided voters. Colorado is a microcosm of the nation’s changing energy economy: It’s a major source of oil and coal, but also one of the biggest producers of wind and solar energy, and at the heart of the new natural gas fracking boom. And it’s been devastated by drought, wildfires, snowmelt, and dying forests linked to climate change. Read more

http://www.nationaljournal.com/membe...id=site_search

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, in the WashPost, "Go large, Mitt": "It makes you think how far ahead Romney would be if he were actually running a campaign. His unwillingness to go big, to go for the larger argument, is simply astonishing. For six months, he's been matching Obama small ball for small ball. A hit-and-run critique here, a slogan-of-the-week there. His only momentum came when he chose Paul Ryan and seemed ready to engage on the big stuff: Medicare, entitlements, tax reform, national solvency, a restructured welfare state. Yet he has since retreated to the small and safe. http://wapo.st/QA4Ikc

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...3bf_print.html

ONE OF THE BEST ARTICLES OF THE CYCLE - ROBERT DRAPER ON DEBATE PREP, in GQ's Oct. issue, "They Retort, You Decide! ": "As a presidential candidate in the 2008 cycle, Romney ... was battered by charges of flip-flopping ... McCain uncorked this memorable put-down: 'We disagree on a lot of issues, but I agree: You ARE the candidate of change.' [Brett] O'Donnell would instruct McCain, 'He equivocates all the time. Just listen for the moment you hear a conditional, then jump on it.' Such a moment came on September 5, 2007, in a Durham, New Hampshire, debate, when Romney said, 'The [Iraq] surge is apparently working.' 'No, not "apparently"-it's working,' McCain shot back. Romney looked like he had been stabbed in the kidney. During this year's primaries, Romney was still haunted by the occasional equivocation-most memorably when he answered 'Maybe' to whether he would follow in his father's footsteps by releasing more than a decade's worth of tax returns. ('The debate team had discussed it,' says one Romney adviser. 'We thought the answer was supposed to be either yes or no, but not maybe.').'" http://gqm.ag/OtcHB2


CHICAGO - AXELROD SAYS "FACTS WILL MATTER" AT FIRST DEBATE: Senior adviser David Axelrod pushes back on the Romney campaign telegraphing that Mitt plans to fact check Obama during next week's debate with a memo. Romney has said that Obama's lying about things he's said. The memo - and an accompanying web video with TV footage - takes issue with Romney on the auto bailout, abortion and taxes for the top 1 percent. 2-minutes: http://goo.gl/j8uCh. Read Axe's memo: http://goo.gl/bpwOS . Meanwhile, Jen Psaki downplayed expectations for Obama on Air Force One yesterday: http://goo.gl/LPt2c.

BOSTON - MYERS LOWERS DEBATE EXPECTATIONS: Romney senior adviser Beth Myers wrote a memo for surrogates with reasons Obama is likely to prevail next week. "Among them: - President Obama is 'widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history.' - 'This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.' - 'Four years ago, Barack Obama faced John McCain on the debate stage. According to Gallup, voters judged him the winner of each debate by double-digit margins, and their polling showed he won one debate by an astounding 33-point margin.' Myers argues that Obama will 'use his ample rhetorical gifts and debating experience to one end: attacking Mitt Romney.'" CNN's Peter Hamby first obtained the memo: http://goo.gl/Jv0ou.

RNC CUTS TIES WITH FIRM OVER VOTER REGISTRATION ACCUSATIONS: "Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be 'hundreds' of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republican National Committee to register Republican voters in five key battleground states," state officials told NBC's Michael Isikoff. "But the veteran GOP consultant, Nathan Sproul, who runs the firm, strongly defended his company's conduct, saying it has rigorous 'quality controls' and blamed the alleged fraud on the actions of a few 'bad apples,' workers who were hired to register Republican voters for $12 an hour and then tried to 'cheat the system.' The allegations of suspected voter fraud committed by Strategic Allied Consulting of Tempe, Arizona spread Thursday to counties throughout Florida. At the same time, the Republican National Committee said it had severed its ties to the firm altogether." http://goo.gl/kb9fT

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

TEAM OBAMA CLAIMS 250K VOTERS REGISTERED IN NORTH CAROLINA: Since April 2011. "That's more new voters than the campaign has registered anywhere else in the country," the AP's Julie Pace reports. "It's an eye-popping total in a state that Obama won by just 14,000 votes four years ago. And the flood of new voters - presumably a chunk of them Democrats - could help keep North Carolina within the president's reach in a year when everything else here seems to be working in Romney's favor." The story notes that the economy's bad (9.7% unemployment) and Obama's embrace of gay marriage put him at odds with a majority of North Carolinians, including many blacks. http://goo.gl/PL4XB

IN IOWA, CAMPAIGN EMBRACE OPPOSING EARLY VOTING STRATEGIES: "The Romney campaign says its strategy is to focus on getting less-reliable voters to turn out earlier in the process -- essentially the opposite strategy of the Democrats, who are working on getting their most reliable supporters to the polls in the first week or two of early voting," The Huffington Post's Jon Ward reports from Des Moines, where the Obama campaign made a concerted effort to get supporters to the polls in all 99 Iowa counties on the first day of early voting. "That way, Democrats said, they can focus much of their energy and resources on voters who might be harder to persuade and get to the polls in the days leading up to Nov. 6...Democrats have taken some satisfaction from the fact that they hold a huge lead in the number of absentee ballots requested so far, with 119,318 to 24,909 for Republicans as of Wednesday night, along with 41,366 requested by independent voters. But the Obama campaign expects that gap to shrink." http://goo.gl/rM0GP.

MONEY-GEORGE SOROS GIVES OBAMA SUPER PAC $1 MILLION: An adviser announced it at a lunch yesterday for liberal donors at a Park Avenue apartment, headlined by Bill Clinton and attended by Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi. "Mr. Soros, a retired hedge fund manager, will also give an additional $500,000 to two super PACs backing Congressional Democrats," The New York Times' Nicholas Confessore reports. "Other donors at the lunch were expected to commit at least $10 million more to Democratic super PACs, suggesting that many - like Mr. Soros - had overcome their aversion to financing super PACs that focused only on advertising." http://goo.gl/WwUf8

LIGHTER CLICKS -

JAY PHARAOH pretends to be Obama at an Ohio town hall for the second installment of the special Thursday edition of Saturday Night Live. He tells people complaining about the economy that they are actually American success stories: http://goo.gl/AVDK4.

JON STEWART jokes that Fox News would be pro-diabetes if Obama came out against it: http://goo.gl/ifAE7.

GEORGE COSTANZA (aka Jason Alexander) campaigned for Obama in Adel, Iowa, yesterday. The Seinfeld star said he has a "man crush" on the president: http://goo.gl/VFl0z.

BEN BERNANKE wrote a flurry of thank you notes to Democrats who spoke out against Ron Paul's "audit the Fed" bill on the floor: http://goo.gl/691lG.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You keep saying 'Little. It [sic] Lil Wayne." - Wolf Blitzer corrects CNN colleague Lisa Sylvester for mispronouncing a rapper's name http://goo.gl/dDxFR

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls (National)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

State by State polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/president/

The Fix: Eight takeaways from the latest Post-ABC News poll

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll is out—and not a minute too soon with the political world going eerily quiet as both candidates prepare for Wednesday night's debate. 
» Read full article
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics

Candidates to break from trail ahead of debate

Obama will huddle privately with aides for an intensive boot camp to prepare for the first presidential debate. Romney will do the same with his advisers in Denver. Their willingness to nearly disappear from public view for 48 to 72 hours reflects the high stakes for both men.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...=nl_pmpolitics

Analysis: What Romney Must Do in the Debates

For Mitt Romney to have a shot at winning in November, his campaign needs to admit the reality that he's behind and correct course by having him focus on the three C's: competence, compassion, and connection, writes National Journal's Matthew Dowd.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...bates-20120928



Obama, Romney Camps Agree: The Other Guy Is a Great Debater

Both the Obama and Romney campaigns are feverishly trying to lower expectations for their respective candidates before the first presidential debate in Denver on Wednesday, reports National Journal's Sarah Huisenga.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...bater-20120928


Presidential Ad Spending Soars Past $700 Million

Local television stations are reaping an unprecedented harvest of more than $700 million in advertising spending around the presidential contest as the two campaigns and their outside allies continue accelerating spending rates, reports Hotline's Reid Wilson

http://www.nationaljournal.com//poli...llion-20120928



PREPPING FOR DEBATE PREP - N.Y. Times A1, "Before Debate, Tough Crowds at the Practice," by Peter Baker and Ashley Parker : "Obama's team records his practices to sharpen his responses so that they connect on a more visceral level with the television audience. One of Mr. Romney's aides calculated his words-per-minute rate in the primary campaign debates to break him of the habit of feeling that he needs to rattle off the most statistics. Mr. Romney's team has concluded that debates are about creating moments and has equipped him with a series of zingers that he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since August. His strategy includes luring the president into appearing smug or evasive about his responsibility for the economy. ... [Obama] Aides ... try to be 'as annoying as a White House correspondent,' as one put it. 'You want to push the button and see how he will react' ...

"David Plouffe, the president's senior adviser, watched debates back to Gerald R. Ford's against Jimmy Carter with the sound down to understand how a challenger's stature increases by sharing a stage with the president. ... When [Obama advisers] watched Mr. Romney's recent interview with '60 Minutes,' they noticed that his answers were succinct and well rehearsed, a sign of the hours he had invested. The president's advisers said they were less interested in one-liners and were focused instead on making Mr. Obama more accessible. 'He had a hard time getting every point across within the time limit,' Mr. Plouffe said of past debates. ... To prepare Mr. Romney, [Sen. Rob] Portman has played Mr. Obama combatively, attacking Mr. Romney as a rich man who does not care about average Americans." http://nyti.ms/VYyXlI

The New York Times: Poll averages have no history of consistent partisan bias
By Nate Silver

Perhaps it is no surprise that when supporters of one candidate do not like the message they are hearing from the polls they tend to blame the messenger.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...partisan-bias/


POLLING-

POLITICO/GWU Battleground: Obama is ahead 49-47 nationally among likely voters. Romney now leads by 4 points among independents, up slightly from a week ago. The Republican must overperform with that group to make up for the near monolithic support of African-Americans for Obama, as well as the huge Democratic advantage among Latinos and women. The head-to-head numbers mostly held steady through the past two weeks... 46 percent say they will vote to reelect Obama and 42 percent say firmly they'll vote to replace him. Just 9 percent say they'll consider someone else.

- Romney has not benefited from revelations about the Obama administration bungling its initial response to the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya. Obama actually expanded his lead over Romney last week on who is better able to handle foreign policy, from 9 points to 12 points. [This may change as stories like the one on the front page of New York Times continue trickling out: http://goo.gl/Ic1YX.]

- Democratic intensity has slipped slightly to 75 percent. A week before last, still in the afterglow of their convention, 81 percent of Democrats called themselves "extremely likely" to vote. Republican enthusiasm, meanwhile, held steady around 80 percent.

- Romney has reopened a slight advantage on which of the two candidates is best equipped to handle the economy - 49 percent to 47 percent - and to create jobs - 48 percent to 47 percent. A slight majority, 52 percent, disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy. My story: http://goo.gl/UMYjT.


OBAMA PUSHED NOT TO ACT CONTEMPTUOUS: "The debates didn't sink him in 2008 - they were probably a net plus taken as a whole, his staffers believe - but this time around Obama's bedrock political asset is his likeability and capacity to bond with middle-class voters. Hence the unwritten rule in debate prep sessions against Sen. John Kerry, Romney's stand-in: Hold your ground, but no more sneers," Glenn Thrush reports. "This is not a guy who can hide his contempt, and the only thing that can really hurt is if he's smug and thinks he's got this in the bag," said a Democrat close to the Obama campaign. Team Obama has faith in their candidate's discipline but there are concerns his disdain for Romney could lead to another Al Gore eye-rolling or George H.W. Bush watch-peering episode: http://goo.gl/wOy1g.

ROMNEY PRESSED TO BE NIMBLE: "Sources said there has been concern within the campaign about ensuring Romney can be agile against Obama, and not just recite briefing-book points," Darren Samuelsohn reports. "This will be Romney's first solo debate against a Democrat in a decade...He's had to practice fielding questions in a one-on-one format, as opposed to the primaries, when there were at least three other people onstage. In that setting, Romney had time to calibrate his answers...Romney must practice staying on his toes and answering faster."

WHAT ROMNEY PRACTICE LOOKS LIKE: "According to a source with knowledge of the practice sessions, they started seated, with everyone cribbing off policy book cheat-sheets. Then the sessions went live, with Romney and [Rob] Portman standing at podiums with long-time aide Peter Flaherty serving as the moderator. A 90-minute clock was added next, along with suits and ties as the preparations 'become more and more realistic' ... On most occasions, the practices were watched by Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades, strategists Stuart Stevens and Beth Myers, policy director Lanhee Chen, senior adviser Ron Kaufman and communications staffers Kevin Madden and Eric Fehrnstrom, while a camera recorded the action for post-debate analysis." http://goo.gl/xIRIW

MODERATOR'S GOAL IS TO SHOW A CANDIDATE'S "TEMPERAMENT": Jim Lehrer, who will moderate Wednesday, told Bob Schieffer for a Sunday package that debates allow voters to "take the measure of the individual" and understand the differences between the candidates. Lehrer says Bob Gates is right to say some men have a presidential temperament and some don't. Watch: http://goo.gl/z7KPm.


EXPECTATIONS MANAGEMENT-

PRESIDENT OBAMA at a Las Vegas rally last night: "Governor Romney is a good debater. I'm just okay." White House senior adviser David Plouffe earlier in the day said Romney has probably prepared more than any candidate ever. http://goo.gl/MYz0a

CHRIS CHRISTIE went off message on the Sunday shows: "This whole race is going to be turned upside down come Thursday morning," the New Jersey governor told CBS, pointing to Romney's success in the GOP primary debates and saying the race will become a barn burner. CBS: http://goo.gl/DfzLl. NBC: http://goo.gl/3F8Zq.

NEWT GINGRICH said Romney "doesn't have to hit a home run." But, his sparring partner during the primary season added, "Romney has to be, at the end of the debate Wednesday night, a clear alternative who is considered as a potential president by a majority of the American people in order for his campaign to have a chance to live.' http://goo.gl/ZyLDA

JOHN MCCAIN disagreed with the idea that the first debate is do-or-die. "Sometimes we expect a major breakthrough, but that doesn't happen very often,' the man who last debated Obama said on CNN's State of the Union.

The DNC popped a web video called "Great Expectations" to highlight Christie's comments. For good measure, the Democrats throw in clips of David Gergen, Chuck Todd, John King, Jim VandeHei, Larry Sabato, Joe Scarborough and Donald Trump talking about either how Romney's a good debater or how he must step up. 2-minutes: http://goo.gl/eYolM.


RYAN SAYS "IT WOULD TAKE ME TOO LONG" TO EXPLAIN ROMNEY TAX PLAN: "You haven't given me the math," Chris Wallace told Paul Ryan in one exchange. "I don't have the ... It would take me too long to go through all of the math," Ryan responded. "But let me say it this way: You can lower tax rates 20 percent across the board by closing loopholes and still have preferences for the middle class for things like charitable deductions, home purchases, for health care. What we're saying is people are going to get lower tax rates and therefore they will not send as much money to Washington." Video: http://goo.gl/kAFgf.

BLAME THE MEDIA?

SHOT - Christie on ABC's This Week: "I'm not going to sit here and complain about coverage of the campaign. As a candidate, if you do that, you're losing."

CHASER - Ryan on Fox News Sunday: 'It goes without saying that there is definitely media bias. I think most people in the mainstream media are left of center and, therefore, they want a very left-of-center president versus a conservative president like Mitt Romney.'

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

GOP SHIFTING RESOURCES FROM MISSOURI TO FLORIDA : "Citing confidence in his chances in the state, national Republicans acting in support of Romney's presidential campaign have shifted many of their resources out of Missouri to the battleground state of Florida," PoliticMo's Eli Yokley reports. "Quietly this week, the Romney campaign and Republican National Committee's Missouri Communications Director, Tom Brandt, was moved from St. Louis to Ft. Lauderdale." http://goo.gl/Ri8zk

THE GROUND GAME -

CHAMBER LAUNCHING NEW MICROSITE: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce will go live with VoteForJobs2012.com later today. It's a digital platform that breaks down key House and Senate races, compares candidate records on economic issues, offers information on how to get absentee ballots and provides a search function to find polling places. Check out the site here (not live yet): http://goo.gl/5l9xx.

WORKER'S VOICE SENDING MAIL TO OHIO, WISC., FLA.: The AFL-CIO super PAC will attack Romney for being a "vulture capitalist" while at Bain. They say he rigged the game so he always won and made millions bankrupting American companies. They're focusing on mail this week, each piece of which will be chased with robocalls before and after. The flights are microtargeted to their persuasion universe. In Ohio, they're sending 75,517 pieces of mail on the presidential race (focusing on the 47% comment: http://goo.gl/tQVRH) and 74,484 against Josh Mandel in the Senate race ( http://goo.gl/GZGmH; http://goo.gl/g68Xw).

In Wisconsin, they're pushing 69,995 for the presidential and 43,679 for the Senate race (http://goo.gl/AosRd). They're sending 66,742 on the presidential in Florida and 100,575 into Massachusetts for the Senate race (http://goo.gl/ZC2jb).

LIGHTER CLICKS -

A PARALLEL UNIVERSE exists on conservative blogs and talk radio in which pundits say Romney is actually ahead. Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns explore the incentives that drive the denial of reality: http://goo.gl/YaQck.

PROSTITUTES might have been at a 2008 Republican Party of Florida fundraiser in the Bahamas. The former executive director of the state party told attorneys in a sworn statement, obtained by the Orlando Sentinel, that he saw a golf cart full of women who he presumed were prostitutes: http://goo.gl/1E80Y.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER says he fell into a bad habit of keeping secrets from Maria Shriver - the biggest of which was fathering an illegitimate child with a housekeeper - because he feared she would overreact: http://goo.gl/BXvQk.

PEARL JAM appeared for Jon Tester in Missoula last night: http://goo.gl/L97QR.

ROSS PEROT will not say who he is voting for: http://goo.gl/MIYcg.

AN ACTRESS pretending to be an Iowa voter managed to talk with several of the candidates and get quoted by several media organizations in the run-up to the caucuses. It was for a mockumentary called "Janeane from Des Moines," reviewed in today's New York Times: http://goo.gl/SlCCs.

A GROUP OF MORMONS plan a fast to benefit Romney ahead of the debate: http://goo.gl/55BPr.

STEPHEN COLBERT has written a 240-page book called "America Again": http://goo.gl/lYMJI.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "If I were American, I'd vote for Obama." - Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez http://goo.gl/G0489

[Count Bobulescu]

BREAKING -- Quinnipiac University Poll, out at 6 a.m.: 'An 18-point lead among women puts President Barack Obama ahead of Gov. Mitt Romney 49-45 percent among likely voters nationwide, and voters expect 54-28 percent that the president will win the debates ... The president leads 56-38 percent among women and 94-2 percent among black voters ... Men back Romney 52-42 percent while white voters back the Republican 53-42 percent. Independent voters are divided with 47 percent for Romney and 45 percent for Obama.'

Most voters think Obama will win first debate
On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Obama leads or is at parity with Mitt Romney on virtually every major issue and attribute in what remains a competitive general election, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c=nl_headlines


Obama does final debate prep in Las Vegas
President Obama arrived in Las Vegas on Sunday hoping that a few days outside Washington will help focus his attention on the high-stakes presidential debate this week.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c=nl_headlines


Drumming up the vote, one door at a time
Campaign volunteers, in what is known as the ground game, walk from door to door to register, organize, motivate and otherwise cajole the voters who will decide the election.
( by Stephanie McCrummen and Ed O’Keefe , The Washington Post)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...c=nl_headlines


Analysis: Just Make Contact
Mitt Romney will need to resist the temptation to swing for the fences in the first presidential debate. He needs to start a rally, not hit a solo home run, as National Journal's Alex Roarty writes.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//maga...ntact-20120927


Debate is Make or Break for Romney
After nearly six years of running for president, millions of dollars spent on ads, a massive political convention, and hundreds of rallies in swing states like Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, Mitt Romney’s bid to become the next president comes down to a few hours on stage Wednesday night, as National Journal's Nancy Cook reports.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//sund...omney-20120930


Poll: Race Remains Tight, But Debates Loom Large
President Obama remains in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Monday, but the incumbent has ticked up on many measures, including earning his highest approval rating for handling the economy in more than two years. Wednesday's debate, however, provides opportunities and potential pitfalls for both candidates, the poll shows, with voters saying by a nearly 2-to-1 margin that Obama will win the series of three debates, as Hotline's Steven Shepard reports.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...large-20121001


Christie: No Anti-Romney Polling Conspiracy
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie said he doesn't believe that public opinion polling has been intentionally skewed against Mitt Romney as some partisans have claimed, as National Journal's Ben Schreckinger reports.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//sund...iracy-20120930


Chris Christie on Debate: 'Entire Narrative of This Race Will Change'
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie played up the expectations for Mitt Romney’s Wednesday debate performance on NBC’s Meet the Press, on the same day that vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan tried to temper them.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//sund...ange--20120930


McCain: Debates Unlikely to Change the Race
And on the flip side, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said it was unlikely that the upcoming presidential debates would provide a game-changing moment.http://www.nationaljournal.com//sund...-race-20120930


Most voters think Obama will win first debate with Mitt Romney

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows President Obama leading or even on virtually every major issue.
The public’s opinion ahead of the first debate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...rc=nl_politics

The debates: What to expect

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...rc=nl_politics



POLL SAYS OBAMA FAVORED HEAVILY IN DEBATES. Obama and Romney remain in a virtual tie in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Monday, but the incumbent has ticked up on many measures, including earning his highest approval rating for handling the economy in more than two years. Wednesday's debate, however, provides opportunities and potential pitfalls for both candidates, the poll shows, with voters saying by a nearly 2-to-1 margin that Obama will win the series of three debates. The president got more good polling news in the battleground state of Iowa on Sunday, where a new Des Moines Register survey had him up by four percentage points. Read more

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...large-20121001



The New York Times: Playing roles of referee and, increasingly, target during debates
By Jeremy W. Peters
The role of a presidential debate moderator, a task that once stood as a crowning and coveted journalistic achievement, is now subject to partisan rancor.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/02/us...=politics&_r=0


Associated Press: Rough economy in clear view for Obama on the road
By Julie Pace 
Sometimes all President Barack Obama has to do is look out the window to get a firsthand look at the country's economic woes.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...10-02-02-17-37


The Washington Post: How much for your vote? ID laws won’t stop this form of fraud
By David A. Fahrenthold 
Despite worry over illegal voters, election fraud cases more often involve citizens who sell their votes.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...542_story.html


How election fraud actually happens. “[A]s a rising furor over voter fraud has prodded some states to mount extensive efforts against illegal voters, election-fraud cases more often involve citizens who sell their votes, usually remarkably cheaply…It may still be possible to steal an American election, if you know the right way to go about it. Recent court cases, from Appalachia to the Miami suburbs, have revealed the tricks of an underground trade: Conspirators allegedly bought off absentee voters, faked absentee ballots, and bribed people heading to the polls to vote one way or another. What they didn't do, for the most part, was send people into voting booths pretending to be somebody else.” David A. Fahrenthold in The Washington Post.


PULLING BACK THE CAMERA - "10 quotes that haunt Barack Obama," by John F. Harris and James Hohmann : "Obama in Denver [tomorrow] will be defending a first-term record that looks strikingly different than the one he imagined when he took office ... Obama's own words, ... culled from his first campaign and the early phase of his presidency, tell the story. Cumulatively, the quotations are an anthology of lofty aspirations that fell to earth, and boastful predictions that didn't come true. All presidents have plans that don't work out. But many of Obama's off-the-mark quotes echo because -- as a president with a short history in Washington and no previous executive experience -- he faced an especially jarring collision between his confident assumptions about how he would govern and the reality of what was possible. The economy and other problems were more impervious to Obama's remedies than he expected; Washington, and the rest of the world, were less impressed by the purity of his intentions than he imagined." http://politi.co/SvNDZn

BEHIND THE CURTAIN - "The fight for the $5 donation," by Dave Levinthal: "Romney's son Tagg emails you about 'a unique opportunity' to join ... Paul Ryan on the trail and hopes you'll 'throw in a few dollars for a chance.' ... Obama fires back with a contest offer to meet not just one, but two presidents: Donate at least $5 and you'll be automatically entered to join him and former President Bill Clinton on the campaign trail. ... [T]he greatest value of these late-stage contributions, which wouldn't have been factors during the era of publicly financed presidential elections, is arguably the personal information campaigns collect . Campaigns may use it to call the donors, canvass their houses, urge them to volunteer, even target their Internet browsing with personalized ads. ...

"Obama's campaign raised about $25 million in August from people contributing $200 or less. Romney's campaign? ... $9.4 million. More than 2 million people have donated $25 or less to Obama this election cycle through August and more than 1.46 million have made multiple donations, the campaign said. Romney has not released comparable figures. The Obama campaign has received 10 million donations in 2012, it announced Monday via Twitter. ...

"[Obama's] online, small-dollar fundraising operation represents a new level of sophistication, says Joe Trippi, who pioneered many techniques while running Howard Dean's 2004 campaign. 'We sure didn't have the ability to know that someone has "liked" the Ocean's 11 Facebook page, so you then have George Clooney sign the Facebook message that we're sending' ... Obama's September dinner contest, which he advertised as 'the last dinner of my last campaign,' was promoted unlike any other. Since Sept. 17, his campaign sent out more than a dozen emails, including three from Obama himself, with Michelle Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Obama for America Chief Operating Officer Ann Marie Habershaw, National Finance Director Rufus Gifford and Deputy Campaign Manager Julianna Smoot each sending separate come-ons. 'We wouldn't be sending the emails if they weren't working,' an Obama campaign official said ... 'People who donate become more likely to volunteer.'" http://politi.co/SjIGoq

THE MONEY, HONEY - N.Y. Times A1, "A Legal Circle Reaches Deep to Aid Obama: Donations by Lawyers for Whistle-Blowers," by Eric Lipton : "As the Obama administration has cracked down on corporate fraud, lawyers representing whistle-blowers have reaped multimillion-dollar rewards. ... The government ... has paid out $1.6 billion to whistle-blowers during his tenure, with law firms taking a cut ... of up to 40 percent ... [T]he political parties have long been at odds over trial lawyers and class-action suits. ... Since January 2009, $13.2 billion has been collected by the federal government from companies through the False Claims Act, the primary whistle-blower tool, with about $9.4 billion of that involving alleged health care fraud. The federal government has recovered more in financial penalties against drugmakers since 2009 than in the previous 18 years combined, with whistle-blowers credited for helping initiate about three quarters of the cases, according to a recent study by Public Citizen ...

"[T]he ranks of lawyers seeking to represent whistle-blowers has grown quickly in the last several years, as the value of the awards has skyrocketed. Lawyers at dozens of these law firms nationwide have contributed to Mr. Obama, campaign finance records show, while only a sprinkling of checks have been written from employees at the same firms to Mr. Romney. The single biggest fund-raiser is John Morgan, a Florida lawyer. He has collected more than $1.7 million for Mr. Obama's re-election or for the Democratic National Committee, making him one of the campaign's biggest bundlers nationwide." http://nyti.ms/PqhGgj

THE AIR WAR-

CROSSROADS MAKES $16 MILLION BUY: "American Crossroads and its affiliate Crossroads GPS are going up today with their biggest paid media push so far in the 2012 cycle, with a $16 million one-week buy on TV and radio in eight presidential battlegrounds and four Senate contests," Maggie Haberman scoops.

"On the presidential level, American Crossroads will spend $11 million on a spot called 'Actually Happened,' which focuses on the impact that President Obama said the stimulus would have on the unemployment rate. The spot features a man using charts and graphics to show where the president said unemployment would be around now, under 5.5 percent, compared to where it is, at 8.1 percent. The ad is running in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. Crossroads GPS, the non-profit affiliate, is spending an additional $1 million on radio in those states. Another $4 million is being spent by GPS in North Dakota, Virginia and Montana, and American Crossroads is going up in Florida." Obama attack: http://goo.gl/08yMe. ND: http://goo.gl/rMfXH. VA: http://goo.gl/Jzx61. MT: http://goo.gl/DwE1K. FL: http://goo.gl/iP8nt.

LIGHTER CLICKS -

JON STEWART criticized the Obama administration response to Libya: http://goo.gl/m2AXi.

DAVID LETTERMAN presented the Top 10 worst politician excuses last night: http://goo.gl/bYcOj.

STEPHEN COLBERT, promoting a new book, went on Letterman: http://goo.gl/iixc9.

MICHELLE OBAMA won the Family Circle cookie bake-off over Ann Romney: http://goo.gl/oJWz9.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'd like to bring some civility and a sense of humor to Congress that seems to have been lost since Al Simpson. My campaign slogan is: 'Chesnut is the best nut for Senate.'" - Wyoming Democratic Senate candidate Tim Chesnut, who will get crushed by John Barrasso. Four-month-old story: http://goo.gl/naNZB.