US Presidential Election 2012

[Count Bobulescu]

Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign announced early Monday that it raised $111.6 million during the month of August, its single best month of the campaign and the third straight month it has raked in more than $100 million.

Update
President Obama’s campaign has announced its August fundraising totals via Twitter.
Obama, the Democratic National Committee and their joint fundraising committee had $123.7 million cash on hand at the end of July.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ugust/?hpid=z1

Welcome to the beginning of the end of the 2012 campaign

With the two parties’ conventions now over, the final days of the 2012 campaign are upon us. As this sort of beginning of the end — well — begins, it’s worth noting a few things we know will matter in the battle between President Obama and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney over the next 57 days.

* The presidential debates:
There will be three one-on-one face-offs between Obama and Romney over these final eight weeks of the campaign and they are, without question, the most important and influential factor when it comes to voters making up their minds. The presidential debates are set for Oct. 3, Oct. 16 and Oct. 22 with a vice presidential debate sandwiched in between on Oct. 11.

This time around, Romney has more to prove but also a bigger opportunity to use the debates as a springboard into the final days of the election. Some Republicans believe that if Romney looks and sounds presidential in the debates, those five or six percent of undecideds looking for a reason to vote against Obama will have it.

* The September and October jobs reports:

The September report will be released Oct. 5, while the October report comes out Nov. 2.

It’s clear from last week’s August jobs report that the economy won’t get significantly better between now and Election Day. But the final two jobs reports will either be the icing on the top of the cake for Romney’s argument that Obama doesn’t know what he’s doing or a bit of a break for the incumbent to argue that things are slowly but surely getting better.

No matter how the jobs reports turn out politically, they will get wall-to-wall media coverage given the intense focus by the electorate on the health (or lack thereof) of the economy. Given how few people are undecided, two bad reports (and the resultant press attention) could well swing the election to Romney. Two good — or even slightly better-than-expected — reports could hand Obama some momentum.

* Romney’s money advantage:

In the final eight weeks of the race, Romney, the Republican National Committee and the slew of outside conservative organizations like American Crossroads are going to dump hundreds of millions of dollars onto the TV airwaves in swing states — a barrage that Obama and his side simply will not be able to match.
At issue is whether the heavy spending by Obama’s campaign during the summer months — as Romney was forced to wait until the GOP convention to begin to be able to spend general election funds — has defined the race in a way that is both a) beneficial to the incumbent and b) unchangeable even by the heaviest spending on the Republican side.

Beyond those three factors, it’s hard to see much of anything — short of a massive gaffe that neither candidate is likely to commit — doing much to change the underlying nature of the race.
It’s close today, and it will almost certainly be close for the next 57 days.

By SARA MURRAY and LAURA MECKLER

With two months to Election Day, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney faces the disconcerting reality that he isn't winning most of the states he would need to beat President Barack Obama.

A new Public Policy Polling survey released Sunday, taken after both parties' conventions, found Mr. Obama leading Mr. Romney 50% to 45% in Ohio, an improvement on the president's earlier advantage. Meanwhile, Florida and Virginia remained neck and neck.

Mr. Obama is leading Mr. Romney by small margins in seven of the eight battleground states, all but North Carolina, according to averages of public polls compiled by RealClearPolitics. All are within the margins of error, and most don't include reactions to the Democratic convention and Friday's dismal jobs report.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...djemPolitics_h

The Hill: Opinion: War policy challenges Romney
By Juan Williams

Mitt Romney and President Obama are in basic general agreement on the path forward in Afghanistan. But by agreeing with each other, the two presidential candidates are in disagreement with the vast majority of the American people who want to get out as soon as possible.

http://thehill.com/opinion/columnist...llenges-romney

Analysis: GOP Ticket Makes Questionable Argument on Defense Cuts

Romney and Ryan are trying to persuade voters in defense-heavy battleground states that their jobs would be safer if the GOP ticket wins the White House. From a political standpoint, the tactic holds potential to affect the outcome of the election. But there are a couple of problems with it. First, Obama and his defense secretary, Leon Panetta, have also said they would prefer that the cuts not take effect. Second, the job loss projections used by the GOP ticket are misleading, writes National Journal's Sara Sorcher.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/natio...-cuts-20120910
Southern whites troubled by Romney's wealth, religion

(Reuters) - Sheryl Harris, a voluble 52-year-old with a Virginia drawl, voted twice for George W. Bush. Raised Baptist, she is convinced -- despite all evidence to the contrary -- that President Barack Obama, a practicing Christian, is Muslim.
So in this year's presidential election, will she support Mitt Romney? Not a chance.

"Romney's going to help the upper class," said Harris, who earns $28,000 a year as activities director of a Lynchburg senior center. "He doesn't know everyday people, except maybe the person who cleans his house."

She'll vote for Obama, she said: "At least he wasn't brought up filthy rich."
White lower- and middle-income voters such as Harris are wild cards in this vituperative presidential campaign. With only a sliver of the electorate in play nationwide, they could be a deciding factor in two southern swing states, Virginia and North Carolina.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...88A05H20120911


Cook Report: Romney Adrift

It is becoming clear that if President Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign, writes Cook Report's Charlie Cook.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...ehind-20120910

Mitt Romney and the ‘captain of the ship’ question

Mitt Romney’s hopes of a win this November rely on convincing a majority of voters of one simple idea: That he is uniquely suited to steer the ship of state during these trying economic times.
He’s not there yet, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, which asked registered voters “on a ship in a storm, who would you rather have as the captain?”

Forty-six percent of registered voters named Obama as their preferred captain, while 43 percent chose Romney. Among electorally critical independents, it was even closer on the “captain” question, with Romney taking 44 percent to 43 percent for Obama.

Why is the captain question so important to Romney? Because on virtually every other character attribute question, he is being swamped by Obama.
Who do you think would make a more loyal friend? Fifty percent of registered voters named Obama, while just 36 percent chose Romney. Fifty-two percent said they’d rather invite Obama to a dinner at their house, while just 33 percent chose Romney. Ditto who you’d rather take care of you when you were sick: 49 percent chose Obama, while 36 opted for Romney.

Dismiss these sorts of poll questions if you want, but they speak to the broader perceptions that people have of the two men running for president. And perception/feel/heart has far more influence in determining how someone votes than do policies/head. Obama is the caring, friendly one. Romney has to be — repeat, HAS TO BE — the competent, trustworthy one.

To win, Romney has to have voters think to themselves two things. 1. “I like Obama more but I don’t think he has what it takes to get the country out of this economic mess.” 2. “Romney may not be a guy I want to hang out with but he knows that he’s doing.”

JEFFREY TOOBIN in The New Yorker, "Profiles: THE PROFESSOR -- Elizabeth Warren's long journey into politics :

Warren's Oklahoma roots are modest. Politically, she is a throwback to a more combative progressive tradition": "Warren ... is a young-looking sixty-three ... She is a startling sight for anyone who has seen her only on television. She is tiny, and very slight. Her campaign uniform consists of colorful T-shirts topped by button-down shirts that flap behind her as she paces and talks. Her energy level is just short of manic. ... [Her] stump speech ... is clearly informed by her years in the classroom. She's a loud, lucid speaker, whose words unspool in full sentences and paragraphs. 'I talk a lot about working families,' Warren said. 'I grew up in a working family.' ...

"She makes no gauzy promises of hope and change, and she wades into con?ict rather than trying to rise above it. She is a candidate of, and for, hard times. 'The people who broke the economy fought the regulations and then doubled down,' she told me." Abstract http://nyr.kr/P4nHBe

PUNDIT PREP - N.Y. Times 1-col. lead, "A TIGHT ELECTION MAY BE TANGLED IN LEGAL BATTLES: LAST-MINUTE APPEALS -- Partisan Fight Over ID Laws and Early Votes Is Critical to Race," by Ethan Bronner: "Voter ID laws have been both upheld as fair and struck down as discriminatory. In Pennsylvania, a state judge upheld the voter ID law, and the State Supreme Court will hear appeal arguments on Thursday. One issue that is likely to lead to lawsuits after Election Day is that of provisional ballots. Under federal law, anyone whose identity or voting precinct is in doubt can ask for a provisional ballot ... and then has a number of days to return with the required documentation." http://nyti.ms/PVSnna

KRUGMAN: Republican obstructionism, an election tactic. ”[H]aving prevented Mr. Obama from implementing any of his policies, those same Republicans are pointing to disappointing job numbers and declaring that the president's policies have failed. Think of it as a two-part strategy. First, obstruct any and all efforts to strengthen the economy, then exploit the economy's weakness for political gain. If this strategy sounds cynical, that's because it is. Yet it's the G.O.P.'s best chance for victory in November.” Paul Krugman in The New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/10/op...wpisrc=nl_wonk

DIONNE: It’s advantage Obama, right now, but Romney has opportunities. ”Normally, a president presiding over 8 percent unemployment and a country that sees itself on the wrong track wouldn't stand a chance. But then a candidate with Mitt Romney's shortcomings, including his failure to ignite much enthusiasm within his own party, wouldn't stand a chance, either. The combination of the two explains why this election remains close.” E.J. Dionne in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...wpisrc=nl_wonk

John Heilemann considers the relationship between Obama and Clinton: ”This tale of two speeches begins with the stylistic disparities between their authors. Whereas Obama is a classic orator, trafficking at his best in soaring stanzas and almost preacherly cadences, Clinton operates more in the mode of an aw-shucks southern country lawyer (albeit one with a public-policy Ph.D.). And whereas Obama excels at the inspirational, the electrifying, and the galvanizing, Clinton's skills are unparalleled when it comes to a quartet of earthier objectives: distillation, litigation, validation, and evisceration.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/power...wpisrc=nl_wonk

RYAN VOTED FOR SEQUESTER THAT ROMNEY ATTACKS: "Romney criticized the 2011 Budget Control Act on NBC's 'Meet the Press,' while Ryan defended his vote for the bill on CBS's 'Face the Nation,'" the Hill's Jeremy Herb notes. "When pressed about GOP support, Romney said: 'I thought it was a mistake on the part of the White House to propose it. I think it was a mistake for Republicans to go along with it.' On Face the Nation, Ryan gave no ground that voting for the [sequester] was a mistake, insisting it was not in fact a vote for the defense cuts." http://goo.gl/otNXz


LIGHTER CLICKS -

60 MINUTES ran a first-hand account last night of the raid that killed Osama bin Laden, built around an interview with one of the Navy SEALs who pulled the trigger. Watch the whole 44-minute special: http://goo.gl/Uvksl.

OBAMA was lifted about a foot off the ground in a giant bear hug by the owner of a Florida pizza shop yesterday: http://goo.gl/PmpJy.

BIDEN was photographed by the AP whispering into a female biker's ear with her nearly on his lap. Awkward: http://goo.gl/tpzNB.

JON STEWART wrapped up his coverage of the Democratic convention ("Hope and Change 2") from Charlotte last Friday night. Watch the full 20-minute episode: http://goo.gl/iaOLG.

STEPHEN COLBERT interviewed Ed Rendell as part of his Friday night DNC wrap-up: http://goo.gl/tXScP.
HOWARD DEAN'S 2004 scream speech audio is mashed up with video of Jennifer Granholm's DNC speech last week: http://goo.gl/fXvAk.

LARRY FLYNT offers a $1 million reward for Romney's tax returns: http://goo.gl/YR7Ce.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'The president believes as much that God should be taken off a coin as he does that aliens will attack Florida. It's an absurd question to be raised." - Obama spokeswoman Jen Psaki responds to Romney saying electing him will ensure that God remains

[Andrew49]

Ann Romney, tasked with making Mitt more human is forging ahead with her task and is set to appear at a Gay Bashing festival hosted by the Family Research Council, American Family Association and Liberty Counsel ! Kudos to shameless Cardinal Timothy Dolan for pointedly turning down an invitation to attend! FULL STORY LINK

And is Mitt Romney hiding Bain abortion profits in his tax returns? One of his ... Republican foes says so: Source

[Sidewinder]

The meeja seem to be desperate to talk this election up as being "close" and "could go either way".

It really isn't and sure there's 8 weeks to go, traditional October Surprise, yadda yadda, but the chances of Romney coming from behind in all the 6 or 7 states he needs to take from Obama's 2008 haul at this stage of the game....I just can't see it, not without something immense happening.

[Count Bobulescu]

HOW OBAMA FILTERED OUT RACISTS: Sasha Issenberg reveals in "The Victory Lab," his excellent new book about how data analytics is changing the way campaigns are run, that Chicago was much more concerned in 2008 than they let on about "the Bradley Effect," the phenomenon by which polls overstate a black candidate's standing because people are afraid to come off as insensitive. The AFL's deputy political director, Mike Podhorzer, reported to Obama officials that the then-senator performed consistently better in polls conducted with live callers, especially when it was a black caller, than robopolls. From the book-
Ken Strasma, the national targeting director for Obama's campaign, "had noticed that high-income white voters in largely black neighborhoods had very high Obama-support scores, while low-income whites in comparable neighborhoods were far less likely to support the black candidate. 'If you're high-income and racist, and your neighborhood changes, you move,' Strasma theorizes. 'If you're low-income and racist, the neighborhood changes and you can't move, you get more resentful and are less likely to vote for Obama.'

"Obama needed to find these people early so that he could give up on them...Strasma knew that any question that successfully uncovered a voter's racist sentiment would have to be more sly. He needed to find a publicly available data point that would be an efficient proxy for asking people one of the most indelicate questions in American life...Strasma tried adding questions about a few different policy issues considered racially-tinged, like affirmative action, but they didn't yield useful patterns in the modeling.

"The targeting desk felt confident that it had identified a statistical fix for what had been the biggest uncertainty hanging over its inability to accurately predict voters' preferences. Still it did not fully calm nerves in Chicago...They would have to wait for election day to get the only further conformation possible." The Victory Lab is full of anecdotes like this from several Republican and Democratic campaigns. It goes on sale today. Buy it here: http://goo.gl/HneA0.

FIRST LOOK - CAP SAYS ADELSON COULD SAVE $2 BILLION UNDER ROMNEY TAX PLAN: The Center for American Progress Action Fund will drop a buzzy new report on what Sheldon Adelson stands to potentially gain under a Romney presidency: billions in new tax cuts. The bottom line of the liberal advocacy group's study is that the casino mogul and top Super PAC donor could make his $100 million election pledge back in less than a single year. By their math, Adelson would reap over $2 billion in tax cuts during the four years of a Romney-Ryan presidency. Seth Hanlon explains that Romney would cut top tax rates and maintain the special low rate on dividends and capital gains. Separately, he estimates that Las Vegas Sands Corp. could save $1.2 billion on untaxed profits from its Asian casinos. And Romney supports the repeal of the estate tax. Read the 8-page report: http://goo.gl/6SxRy.

DAILY KOS/SEIU POLL PUTS OBAMA UP 6 AMONG LIKELY VOTERS: Public Policy Polling has switched to a likely voter screen with eight weeks left, and their national poll shows Obama leading 50 to 44. The Democratic firm, which conducts the weekly automated survey for Daily Kos and SEIU, found a measurable shot in the arm from the convention. 71% now say they are 'very excited' about voting this fall, compared to 63% two weeks ago. Republican enthusiasm has changed little: 63% are now 'very excited,' versus 60% in the last poll. The poll also found that 43% of voters say they find Paul Ryan's recent statements to be untruthful. In addition, 49% of voters said they thought Democrats had a more successful convention compared to 35% who said Republicans. 12-pages of crosstabs: http://goo.gl/NCDqb.

CATHOLIC ASSOCIATION POLLING OFFERS MESSAGING ROADMAP: The Catholic Association, a conservative group, ran a national poll of likely-voting Catholics last month that shows a majority receptive to criticism of the Obama administration's HHS mandate. It was an automated poll in which respondents were asked if they agreed or disagreed with a series of statements. 78% of Catholics agreed with: "Our rights come from nature and God, not government." 72%: "America's exploding federal debt hurts the poor the most." 66%: "Religious charitable institutions should not be forced by the government to provide or pay for goods and services they morally object to." 66%: "Catholics can disagree about the best way to serve the poor-for example, favoring private charity over government programs - without being 'bad' Catholics." 57%: "The Obama Administration has gone too far in placing restrictions on religious freedom when implementing their programs and policies." Magellan Strategies conducted the robopoll from August 19-21. The sample is 2,629 Catholics that say they are likely to vote. Demographics: 54% female, 46% male; 48% Democrat, 33% Republican and 19% Independent; 75% were 18-34. Magellan says the margin of error is +/-1.91%. Here's a series of PowerPoint slides visualizing the data: http://goo.gl/EQb4e.


THE GOOD NEWS FOR CHICAGO: "On 15 items, Obama has significant leads on eight, Romney on zero. Romney also no longer has the pre-convention advantages he held on dealing with the economy and what had been his best issue, handling the federal deficit. The president holds double-digit leads in areas of particular focus at his party's convention, including addressing women's issues (Obama leads Romney by 21 percentage points), advancing the interests of the middle class (15 points), and social issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage (11 points). Obama also has a fresh, albeit slender, lead on dealing with taxes. Three new questions emphasize the president's advantage over Romney when it comes to personal attributes. By a margin of nearly 20 points, voters are more apt to say they would like to have Obama as a dinner guest, and the president also leads by double digits as the person voters would want to take care of them if they were sick and who they say would make a more loyal friend."

THE BRIGHT SIDE FOR BOSTON: Obama remains in vulnerable territory. 48% approve. 50% disapprove. 43% say the economy has gotten worse since Obama took office. Only 32% say it's gotten better. "About two-thirds say Romney understands what it takes to create a successful small business, while there is a split verdict on Obama. By 53 percent to 35 percent, more say government programs do more to hamper than bolster small businesses." Story: http://goo.gl/ALzLf.

THE BASE IS COMING HOME TO OBAMA, explains ABC pollster Gary Langer: "The main change has been a shift among Democrats, coalescing around their party's nominee. Obama's support from Democrats who are registered to vote has advanced by 8 percentage points since before the conventions, to a near-unanimous 91 percent, matching his best; the number defecting to Romney has dropped by 6 points, to a mere 5 percent. Among other groups, Obama's support has reached a new high among men, while Romney is at new lows among moderates, whites and higher-income voters, all in ABC/Post polls since April 2011." His whole analysis is worth reading: http://goo.gl/m2HF4.

CNN/ORC puts Obama's lead at 52-46 among likely voters. The same poll showed a 48-48 tie before Charlotte. Four nuggets on the Obama bounce: "The convention energized-at least temporarily- the Democratic base, as more Democrats (59%) than Republicans (57%) seemed to be enthusiastic about voting...The Republican nominee's favorable rating increased to 53% after the GOP convention, but fell to 48% one week later after the Democratic event. Meanwhile, Obama rose to 57% in the last week, his highest mark since 2010...Before the Republican event, 45% thought Romney was more likely to have a clear plan, while only 39% felt the same about the president. Now the two have switched places...After the Democratic convention, Obama picked up more support among men, while he maintained his already high support among women." http://goo.gl/eN5gl

PEW - OBAMA GETS SLIGHT BUMP: 26% said their view became more favorable in the 'past few days.' 20% said less favorable, and 48% said no change. http://goo.gl/1QgEB

GALLUP - AMERICANS BETTER OFF UNDER OBAMA: "Americans are clearly better off on several economic and mood measures now than they were in February 2009 when President Obama took office," Gallup chief Frank Newport writes in a report that posted this morning. " http://goo.gl/Ud3QB

THE BIG IDEA - OBAMA IS WINNING WITH THE BUSH PLAYBOOK: The president is beating Romney right now with the same playbook that allowed George W. Bush to defeat John Kerry in 2004. Two stories from my colleagues that have posted in the last 12 hours look at how the White House is capitalizing on both Romney's lack of serious national security experience and awkwardness-


MITT'S AWKWARDNESS ALLOWS OBAMA (!) TO ACT LIKE A REGULAR GUY: "Just since July, Obama has stopped at four different bars to quaff a cold one, bought a round of Bud Lights at the Iowa State Fair and released his White House microbrew recipe...Saturday night he walked into Gators Dockside, an Orlando sports bar, pantomiming an alligator chop with his arms - the signature move University of Florida Gators fans make at games. Even during his speeches, Obama has been finding a way to get in sports references," Jonathan Martin and Maggie Haberman write. "Some of this is geared toward appealing to male voters, whom Obama struggles with compared to women, and convincing everyday Americans that their arugula-eating president is no snob. But it's hard to believe the president would be determined to demonstrate his passion for beer and football if he were running against, say, Tim Pawlenty, who was known to throw down his gloves on the ice from time to time growing up in Minnesota ..

.The Republican's Mormon faith precludes him drinking alcohol, so he doesn't go to pubs. But sports have been a point of difficulty for Romney. When asked about both NASCAR and football, Romney cited his relationships with wealthy team owners instead of discussing players or drivers. And he's become so cautious about the topic that he appears reluctant to say much of anything now. Passing out hot dogs before a NASCAR race in Richmond last Saturday, Romney twice ignored a question about whether he was a racing fan. Asked later about his favorite driver, he responded: 'There's a lot of drivers I like.'" The story goes on to recall when Kerry gave mistakenly called the Green Bay Packers' iconic stadium Lambert Field: http://goo.gl/APY93.

ROMNEY TALKER-WSJ EDITORIAL AGAIN KNICKS ROMNEY ON VAGUENESS: "On NBC's 'Meet the Press,' the Republican was asked what he would do about people with pre-existing medical conditions who would supposedly 'no longer be guaranteed health care' if he repeals the Affordable Care Act...Whether or not this rhetorical gambit was driven by polling, it did confuse political reporters who think that the only two 'health-care reform' choices are ObamaCare and the pre-2010 status quo. They were soon filing stories about a Romney 'move to the middle.' Meanwhile, certain quarters on the right-equally unversed in policy-went bonkers, while liberals gloated about a flip flop...Mr. Romney's pre-existing political calculation seems to be that he can win the election without having to explain the economic moment or even his own policies. As this flap shows, such vagueness carries its own political risks." http://goo.gl/wfdbA

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

OBAMA POLLSTER SAYS HE HAS 43 PATHS TO VICTORY: And that Romney has far fewer. The Boston Globe's Glen Johnson writes up the presentations David Simas, who is head of polling and focus group research, gave during the DNC. "Simas said that when he speaks of 43 different paths for Obama to win reelection, few states are in as many of the combinations as New Hampshire. He said its electorate - roughly 25 percent Democrats, 25 percent Republicans, and 50 percent independents - is full of people swayed by a simple description of what candidates can do to improve their lives." http://goo.gl/Wg937

WHERE THE MONEY IS BEING SPENT: NBC posts SMG Delta's breakdown of who is spending where. Here are the top 13 states that have seen money spent on political ads since March: 1. Florida - $117.4 million. 2. Ohio - $112.1 million. 3. Virginia - $85.7 million. 4. North Carolina - $56.5 million. 5. Colorado - $54.2 million. 6. Iowa - $46.6 million. 7. Nevada - $38.2 million. 8. New Hampshire - $25.3 million. 9. Pennsylvania - $19.3 million. 10. Wisconsin - $8.1 million. 11. Michigan - $8 million. 12. Minnesota - $3.2 million. 13. New Mexico - $49,000. Total booked on TV and radio this presidential general election: $575 million. More state-by-state breakdown: http://goo.gl/Ze5Ak.

LIGHTER CLICKS -

NICKI MINAJ clarifies that she supports Obama after some (not us!) misinterpreted a new rap as offering support for Romney: http://goo.gl/Chf4H.

DREAMWORKS released a 44-second teaser from Steven Spielberg's forthcoming "Lincoln" biopic: http://goo.gl/iByAe.

JULIAN CASTRO seeks advice from Siri, the iPhone digital assistant, about whether he should run for higher office in a lighthearted, bizarre web video: http://goo.gl/9WFrE.

HARRY REID has had much better marathon times than Paul Ryan. He finished the 1972 Boston Marathon in three hours, 16 minutes: http://goo.gl/SZlua.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "To win Romney must open big tent to sympathetic families. Stop fearing far right which has nowhere else to go. Otherwise no hope." - Tweet by Rupert Murdoch, the chairman of News Corp. (which owns Fox) http://goo.gl/g0GfH

[C. Flower]

The gap between rich and poor in the US is at its biggest since 1967.

Both sides will say this is a reason to elect them, according to this report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ome-falls.html

[Griska]

The gap between rich and poor in the US is at its biggest since 1967.

Both sides will say this is a reason to elect them, according to this report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...ome-falls.html

Yes, it's interesting to hear both sides claim to have numbers on their side.

[Count Bobulescu]

ROMNEY CAMPAIGN sends incendiary statement as volatile developments unfold:
--Tuesday a.m. ET, "U.S. Embassy Condemns Religious Incitement: The Embassy of the United States in Cairo condemns the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims - as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions. Today, the 11th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the United States, Americans are honoring our patriots and those who serve our nation as the fitting response to the enemies of democracy. Respect for religious beliefs is a cornerstone of American democracy. We firmly reject the actions by those who abuse the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others."

--10:09 p.m., Mitt Romney "Statement On Developments In Libya and Egypt," embargoed for midnight, putting it past 9/11: "I'm outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi. It's disgraceful that the Obama Administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks."

--10:25 p.m., Romney campaign emails reporters: "You can use this statement immediately, embargo is lifted."

--11:04 p.m., ABC's Jake Tapper posts, "Obama Administration Distances Self From Statement Issued by US Embassy in Cairo": "An administration official tells ABC News that 'no one in Washington approved that statement before it was released and it doesn't reflect the views of the U.S. government.'"

--12:09 a.m., Ben LaBolt, national press secretary at Obama for America, "Response to Governor Romney's statement: 'We are shocked that, at a time when the United States of America is confronting the tragic death of one of our diplomatic officers in Libya, Governor Romney would choose to launch a political attack.'"

NBC'S CHUCK TODD on 'Morning Joe,' on Romney aides issuing the statement 'before they knew for sure whether there were going to be protests that spread around the world. It seemed to be an irresponsible thing to do. ... I have a feeling they wish they had that moment back, that they wish they had that statement back. ... I understand where they feel like they are: They're chasing news cycles right now. And they feel as if they have to be involved in every news cycle, in every event if the president's involved, in order to look on equal footing. That was a bad mistake they made last night.'

This week has not been a good one for Mitt Romney.

First, his campaign pollster — the widely respected Neil Newhouse — put out a polling memo, seeking to discredit the idea of a post-convention bump for President Obama, that seemed decidedly defensive.

Then came his campaign’s controversial comments on the Obama Administration’s posture toward the Middle East, comments that Romney doubled down on during a Wednesday morning press conference even after it was revealed that the U.S. ambassador to Libya had been killed. That series of events has some within the party concerned that the race is slipping from them, or at least that their nominee is acting as though that’s the case.

“They allow tactics to dictate strategy, instead of vice versa,” said John Weaver, a Republican strategist. “Where is the narrative? Where is conduct representing what a President Romney would do?”

Added another Republican consultant granted anonymity to speak candidly: “I wished they’d panicked months ago; that’s when I started to. Their biggest problem is the state-by-state situation in the swing states, and that situation has been clear for a really long time.” (The Fix wrote about Obama’s Electoral College advantage on Wednesday morning.)

The source added that the “blooper” on Libya followed another misstep over the weekend, in which Romney’s comments on “Meet the Press” suggested he would retain some elements of Obama’s health care law if elected.

“How can you overturn Obamacare as your first act in office and then say that (the) parts (that test well in the polls) should be kept?” asked the source.
Even those who downplayed the significance of Romney’ s statements on Libya acknowledged that the campaign is not at a high point at the moment.

“All campaigns are a roller coaster, and this one is no different,” said Henry Barbour, a Republican National Committeeman from Mississippi. “I believe Romney is going to win.”

Said another senior party strategist who remains bullish about Romney’s chances: “I can’t explain the Libya thing.”

Romney allies insist that the second-guessing amounts to nitpicking and over-analysis. No one outside of the professional political class and media noticed the Newhouse memo, they argue, and the takeaway from the Libya flap for your average swing voter in Ohio was that Romney was standing up for America. And, they add, there’s absolutely no reason for panic since polling in swing states shows Romney within the margin of error — although typically running behind Obama.

And, as we have said before, foreign policy ain’t going to decide this election. But, with media outlets making clear that Romney appeared to jump the gun on his statement Tuesday night, this episode now seems certain to dominate the narrative of the campaign for days — if not longer.

That means Romney isn’t talking about the economy and Obama’s handling of it. That might not be panic, but it’s also not good.

Ad spending update: NBC News is out with great recap of how much money has been spent on ads in each state so far in the presidential race, and how much each group has spent.

In short, Obama’s campaign has far outspent Mitt Romney’s campaign so far, $222 million to $87 million. But if you factor in outside groups, Romney and the GOP have outspent Obama, $307 million to $276 million.

DETAILS ON LIBYA ATTACK STILL MISSING. A senior administration official said the U.S. is unsure what happened between the time Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens was separated from his security and when he turned up in a Benghazi hospital. “We were not able to see him until his body was returned to us at the airport,” the official said, adding that the U.S. will not be able to provide more details about the cause of death until an autopsy is performed. Officials described an assault that lasted more than four hours. The FBI has said it will investigate the attack, and the Libyan government has pledged its support. A team of Marines is en route to Libya, where they will secure the diplomatic facility in Tripoli, protect embassy personnel, and assist in evacuating them as required. Unmanned drones will also be used. Read more

OBAMA CALLS KARZAI, MORSI. Before leaving to campaign in Nevada on Wednesday, Obama called President Karzai of Afghanistan and discussed the attack on the Benghazi consulate. “The Presidents discussed the importance of working together to help ensure that the circumstances that led to the violence in Libya and Egypt do not pose a threat to U.S. forces or Afghans,” according to a White House statement. Karzai earlier in the day denounced the anti-Islam film that reportedly sparked the attack, but did not condemn the violence itself. President Obama also called Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi early on Thursday to discuss the “strategic partnership” between the two nations, according to the White House, and challenged him to cooperate with the U.S. efforts to provide safety for its diplomats. Morsi agreed to work with the U.S. Read more

ROMNEY PICKS A BIG FIGHT. By attacking President Obama over an embassy statement in the midst of overseas violence that killed four U.S. diplomats, Mitt Romney injected politics squarely into the maze of a U.S. foreign-policy crisis. The move left some prominent Republicans bewildered, and drew an acid response from Obama himself. “Governor Romney seems to have a tendency to shoot first, aim later,” he told CBS News in an interview by correspondent Steve Kroft. Romney’s risky tactic, writes National Journal’s Major Garrett, may leave a mark and intensify scrutiny of Romney’s own foreign-policy qualifications.


COUNTDOWN: 55 days.

POLLING-

FOX NEWS: Obama leads 48-43, a gain of four from before the conventions driven by an increase in support from women and independents. "Voters trust Obama more than Romney on foreign policy (+15 points), education (+14 points), Medicare (+11 points), health care (+9 points) and terrorism (+8 points). Romney bests Obama outright on just one issue: cutting government spending (+13 points)." http://goo.gl/1zxTM

GALLUP: Democrats now tie Republicans at 45-45 on which party does a better job of protecting the country from terrorism and military threats. The GOP had an 11-point advantage last year: http://goo.gl/HcwPs.

EPIC-MRA of MICHIGAN (automated): Obama leads 47-37. Detroit Free Press: http://goo.gl/bWcCK.

PPP (D) says Obama leads 53-42 in New Mexico (http://goo.gl/lDXFP) and Romney leads 50-45 in Montana (http://goo.gl/99pg4).
QUINNIPIAC of NEW YORK: Obama leads 62-34. http://goo.gl/nwxkW



LIBYA-

REPUBLICANS PLAN to raise questions today about why more actions were not taken ahead of the 9/11 anniversary to protect against embassy attacks. A GOP official points to an AP story posted on Monday about Obama being briefed ahead of 9/11 on what was being done at home and abroad: http://goo.gl/rT7bS.

MITT BUNGLED HIS RESPONSE: "Romney's criticism of Obama over the U.S. embassy attacks in North Africa has spiraled into a debate over the GOP nominee's incendiary remarks on the subject," Maggie Haberman and Alex Burns report. "Democrats accused Romney of looking unserious, responding to a news cycle, and even some Republicans agreed, acknowledging the moment is a potentially pivotal test for a candidate who has not made foreign policy or national security central tenets of his candidacy. Some Republicans believe Romney can seize on what has been a difficult 24 hours and use it to make his policy statements more dynamic, especially in advance of an October presidential debate that will focus solely on foreign policy and now looms larger." POLITICO: http://goo.gl/ezTbk. New York Times A1 version from Peter Baker and Ashley Parker: http://goo.gl/bVauO.


KLEIN: Romney’s campaign is losing . And when campaigns are losing, they begin to make mistakes. ”There's a saying in politics: No campaign is ever as good as it looks when it's winning nor as bad as it looks when it's losing. In Mitt Romney's comments on Libya, you see part of the reason why…When campaigns are losing, they get desperate. And when they get desperate, they make riskier political decisions. And so, Tuesday night, the Romney campaign made a risky decision…Romney's comments were, to be sure, unusually noxious and indecent. But this is also what happens when campaigns get desperate. Like a gambler who's already lost too much, they begin taking risks in the hope of making it all back. And then, more often than not, they pay the price.” Ezra Klein in The Washington Post.

THIS MAY STICK: Democrats are trying hard to conflate Romney's comments with McCain's claim at a similar point in September 2008 that the economy was "fundamentally sound." Obama's line to Steve Kroft in yesterday's sit-down could lead to a caricature. 'There's a broader lesson to be learned here,' Obama said. "Governor Romney seems to have a tendency to shoot first and aim later." http://goo.gl/RoaE9

SUPPORT FOR ROMNEY: A WSJ editorial defends him: http://goo.gl/ZGpkw. So does Rich Lowry: http://goo.gl/bAK9P. Henry Kissinger says he understands: http://goo.gl/hfckR.

CRITICISM: The Washington Post says he's discredited his campaign: http://goo.gl/g3juL. The New York Times says he showed an extraordinary lack of presidential character: http://goo.gl/PHU7d.

The banner on the Huffington Post is "Shame" over a picture of Romney: http://goo.gl/onTme.

JOHN MCCAIN tells ABC's Jon Karl that he thinks Obama's response was fine and praises Hillary. In contrast to Romney, McCain offers a moving tribute to the slain ambassador and NO criticism of Obama. Watch: http://goo.gl/E7DPr.



LIGHTER CLICKS -

MONICA LEWINSKY "is shopping a top-secret book project," The New York Post's Page Six reports this morning. They say she's "been making the rounds with major publishers, who were all asked to sign nondisclosure agreements to take the meetings": http://goo.gl/H87Rk.

JAY PHAROAH will play Obama on "Saturday Night Live" through the election: http://goo.gl/fQ3gz.

THE DNC apologizes (and blames a vendor) for displaying images of Russian naval ships during last week's convention: http://goo.gl/mGyIr.

JACK GILLIAM, the CEO of NationBuilder, has compiled more than 170 million voter registration files from all 50 states. He wants to open them up to candidates and small groups that couldn't otherwise afford to compile them. USA Today: http://goo.gl/LqJNI.

JANE FONDA is seen in character as Nancy Reagan in this photo tweeted by Oprah from the set of her movie "The Butler": http://goo.gl/NCt07.

THE KENNEDY CENTER HONOREES this year will be Buddy Guy, Dustin Hoffman, David Letterman, Natalia Makarova, and Led Zeppelin (including John Paul Jones, Jimmy Page and Robert Plant). Press release: http://goo.gl/UIrH8.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'There are two kinds of people in this world: 'I' people and 'we' people. I've always tried to be a 'we' person. I think that our president is an 'I' person. He speaks as though he killed Osama bin Laden himself.' - Clint Eastwood in an interview given to Esquire before his RNC speech http://goo.gl/SvHXS

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Campaign Alert
from The Wall Street Journal

With few voters still undecided, President Barack Obama has built leads over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Virginia, three of the states likely to determine who wins the White House in November.

Mr. Obama's solid footholds in the three states come as his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, has struggled to persuade voters that he is better equipped than the president to grapple with the economy, the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist Poll surveys show.

Mr. Obama's support is at or near 50% in all three states, suggesting that Mr. Romney must peel off voters who now support the president to win. The pool of undecided voters is 6% of the electorate or smaller in all three states.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...malertCampaign

Obama leads in two national polls, and is substantially in the front in Michigan. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.

Findings: In a new poll Obama leads 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters and 52 percent to 41 percent among registered voters. He also leads registered men 51 percent to 41 percent — by just two points fewer than the amount he leads among registered women. 


Pollster: Langer Research Associates for Esquire/Yahoo! News 


Methodology: Telephone poll of 1,002 adults September 7 through 10 with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points for the full sample, +/-4.5 percentage points for registered voters, and +/- percentage points for likely voters.


Why it matters: Tom Kludt at Talking Points Memo bills this as "the latest evidence that Obama is riding momentum from the Democratic National Convention." The demographics however also resemble a trend noted by Niall Stanage in The Hill that Obama is gaining momentum among male voters, something which could be devastating for Romney's strategy. 
Caveat: As Kludt notes: the "sub-groups are all a part of the registered voter pool, as opposed to the narrower sample of likely voters."

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/polit...g-polls/56832/

Cook Report: Obama’s a Good Bet
Without a change in the dynamics of the race, the president is likely to win reelection. And Republicans now have less than a 50-50 chance of winning control of the Senate, writes The Cook Report's Charlie Cook.

By this time next week, there should be enough national and state-level polling data to present a pretty clear picture of where this election stands, post-Labor Day and after whatever bounces the candidates may have gotten from the conventions. But we have seen enough data in recent weeks to draw some preliminary conclusions about the contests for the White House, the Senate, and, to a lesser extent, the House.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...o-win-20120913

Romney Softens on Libya, Hardens Economic Critique
FAIRFAX, Va. – In his first rally since attacks in the Middle East thrust foreign policy to the forefront of the presidential campaign, Republican nominee Mitt Romney on Thursday attempted to shift the focus back to the issue he hopes will decide the election: the economy, reports National Journal's Sarah Huisenga.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...tique-20120913

Fossil fuel ads are all over the campaign. “When Barack Obama first ran for president, being green was so popular that oil companies like Chevron were boasting about their commitment to renewable energy, and his Republican opponent, John McCain, supported action on global warming. As Mr. Obama seeks re-election, that world is a distant memory. Some of the mightiest players in the oil, gas and coal industries are financing an aggressive effort to defeat him, or at least press him to adopt policies that are friendlier to fossil fuels. And the president's former allies in promoting wind and solar power and caps on greenhouse gases? They are disenchanted and sitting on their wallets.” Eric Lipton and Clifford Krauss in The New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/us...wpisrc=nl_wonk

FRANKFURT – Germans’ enthusiasm for U.S. election coverage this year is lagging far behind 2008, journalists following the campaign say, marking a sharp contrast from four years ago, when Barack Obama, then a junior senator from Illinois, captivated Europe.
“There is definitely much lower interest” in the presidential election this year, says Markus Ziener, a former U.S. correspondent and current editorial page editor for German business daily Handelsblatt.

For example, presumptive Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate received scant attention on the front pages of major German papers soon after the announcement.
Coverage is limited both because many Germans expect U.S. President Barack Obama to be re-elected – and see a less-exciting election than 2008 — and also because Germany and Europe are preoccupied with their debt crisis, which wasn’t yet on the radar in 2008. A recent survey by the Forsa institute and commissioned by Stern magazine in Germany showed 80% of Germans expect Mr. Obama to win the election. By contrast, an August USA Today/Gallup poll of Americans found 58% expect Mr. Obama to win, while 36% expect rival Mitt Romney to win.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2012/0...reaming_stream

CAIRO — Following a blunt phone call from President Obama, Egyptian leaders scrambled Thursday to try to repair the country’s alliance with Washington, tacitly acknowledging that they erred in their response to the attack on the United States Embassy by seeking to first appease anti-American domestic opinion without offering a robust condemnation of the violence.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/wo...s.html?_r=2&hp

KEEP THIS IN MIND: "Campaign sources think more than one-third of the electorate will vote early-as much as 36% of voters, compared with 31% in 2008-which is another reason the campaigns are blasting televisions about as hard in September as they will in October," Time's Michael Crowley writes in a story for the latest issue of magazine. "'This is not 1980,' says [Obama campaign manager Jim] Messina, referring to Ronald Reagan's late come-from-behind victory. 'By the third debate, a majority of people in Colorado and Florida will have voted.' And some campaign officials say that by mid-October, advertising will grow less important. Inundated voters are likely to be jaded and tired of advertising and hungry for unscripted moments that reveal the true nature of the candidates. Behind the pay wall: http://goo.gl/Z0iRp.


CHICAGO ATTACKS ON TAX RETURNS: The Daily Beast reported yesterday that Romney asked those on his vice presidential shortlist for 10 years of tax returns. (Story: http://goo.gl/HYHoQ) Obama's campaign wants to use this to revive the controversy over whether he should release more. A 2-minute new web video features old clips of Romney joking about it and news commentators suggesting there's a problem: http://goo.gl/yUAuP. A separate two-minute video suggests five reasons why Romney won't release more: http://goo.gl/eYifJ.

THE CHORUS -- CONSERVATIVES CRITICAL OF ROMNEY'S INITIAL LIBYA STATEMENT: Peggy Noonan ... Ed Rogers ... Mark Salter ... Steve Schmidt ... Scott Galupo, the American Conservative) ... Richard Armitage ... David Frum ... former Sen. John E. Sununu ... Matt Lewis ... Joe Scarborough ... GOP strategist John Ullyot

--CONSERVATIVES CRITICAL OF ROMNEY ON OTHER TOPICS IN PAST WEEK: Ross Douthat ... Joe Scarborough ... Rush Limbaugh ... Rupert Murdoch ... Trent Lott ... Jonah Goldberg ... George Pataki ... Alex Castellanos ... Laura Ingraham ... Bill Kristol ... William McGurn ... Mike Murphy (hat tip: POLITICO's Katie Glueck)

FOREIGN POLICY TALKERS -
SPECIFICS ON WHAT MITT WOULD HAVE DONE THE LAST FEW DAYS: "If Mitt Romney were in the Oval Office during this week of turmoil in the Middle East, his foreign policy advisers said on Thursday, he would have already told Iran that he would not allow it to get close to building a bomb, setting a 'red line' in a far different place from Obama's," David Sanger and Ashley Parker write. "He would tell the Egyptians that if they wanted $1 billion in debt forgiveness - as promised by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton this month - they would have to put far more effort into protecting American interests in the country, starting with the United States Embassy. And he would provide far more aid to elements of the Syrian opposition, including, according to one adviser, 'facilitating' the provision of lethal arms from other Arab states. But, like President Obama, he would stop short of arming them directly. And the United States would have been far more involved in the formation of a new Libya, the advisers insisted, though they conceded it was not clear that could have stopped the attack that killed the American ambassador there and three other American officers." NYT: http://goo.gl/y9BmJ. The AP looks at Romney's circle of foreign policy advisers: http://goo.gl/hAjV1.

BOSTON DEFENDS ATTACKS: "For the first time since Jimmy Carter, we've had an American ambassador assassinated," Richard Williamson, a top Romney foreign policy adviser, told the Washington Post's Phil Rucker. "In Egypt and Libya and Yemen, again demonstrations - the respect for America has gone down, there's not a sense of American resolve and we can't even protect sovereign American property." Phil says "Romney's campaign hopes to force a broader debate about America's role in the world and to argue that while Obama has been successful in fighting terrorism, his foreign policies have resulted in waning U.S. influence abroad." Phil has them calling Obama an amateur: http://goo.gl/SWof3. Dan Balz offers context: http://goo.gl/nUJcm
.
ROMNEY'S TRYING TO MOVE PAST THE LIBYA KERFUFFLE: "Romney did not back down from his belief that the Obama Administration's first response to the Cairo protest demonstrated 'sympathy' for the attackers, but he also made it clear that he was ready to move on," ABC's George Stephanopoulos writes of his sit-down with the governor yesterday afternoon. "What I said was exactly the same conclusion the White House reached, which was that the statement [unauthorized from the Cairo embassy] was inappropriate. That's why they backed away from it as well," Romney said. "I think it should have been taken down. And apparently the White House felt the same way." Here's the excerpt that appeared on World News last night: http://goo.gl/l2k40. Aside from brief remarks noting the deaths of the Americans, Ginger Gibson notes that Romney made no other mention of the growing controversy at his rally in Fairfax yesterday: http://goo.gl/eVmp6.

THE ADMINISTRATION SPENT YESTERDAY ON DEFENSE OVER OBAMA'S EGYPT GAFFE: Obama told Telemundo Wednesday night that the U.S. relationship with Egypt is a work in progress. "I don't think that we would consider them an ally, but we don't consider them an enemy," he said. From Rucker's story: "Administration officials tried throughout the day to parse Obama's statement on Egypt without appearing to contradict him. Obama was right in 'diplomatic and legal terms,' White House spokesman Jay Carney said, because ''ally' is a legal term of art' that refers to countries with which the United States has a mutual defense treaty such as the NATO alliance. But the United States tried to work around just that problem in 1989, creating the designation of 'major non-NATO ally' for countries on which it wanted to bestow approval, weapons sales and defense cooperation prohibited to non-treaty nations. Egypt - along with Israel, Australia, Japan and South Korea - was among the first countries to be so designated that year. Pressed to explain why a 'major non-NATO ally' is not an ally, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland repeated the treaty argument, then referred reporters to the White House. Later asked whether the United States still considers Egypt a 'major non-NATO ally,' Nuland said 'Yes.'"

THE JUICE-SECOND TERM WOULD BE PACKED WITH INSIDERS: "President Barack Obama, if reelected, would surround himself with a retooled senior staff and Cabinet consisting largely of familiar faces and political insiders, plus at least one outsider to tend to the disgruntled business community," top Democratic officials tell Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei. "Obama has put little personal time into sketching out what a second-term team would look like, and some decisions hinge very much on the outcome of the congressional elections. But behind the scenes, top officials are doing a lot of the sketching for him as a flood of top administration players - Hillary Clinton, Tim Geithner, David Plouffe and others - are planning quick exits, even if the boss wins. The working assumption is that Obama will face a divided government and want badly to get something done, even if it means cutting far-from-ideal deals with a Republican House." http://goo.gl/VgnPT

[Count Bobulescu]

FIRST LOOK - The New Republic cover, "THE RYAN PLAN (FOR HIMSELF): His Rise From Fitness Instructor to Philosopher Prince ... How Paul Ryan convinced Washington of his genius," by senior editor Alec MacGillis: "He's not a Moynihan-style big thinker ... Rather, he's a keen observer of Washington's evolving political culture who has become good-very good-at exploiting it. ... Once you earn a reputation as a Serious Man in Washington, it's almost impossible to lose it . ... Ryan was even managing to get a respectful hearing from liberal journalists. ... Ezra Klein, who runs the 'Wonkblog' at The Washington Post[,] ... presents himself as a numbers guy, a true empiricist, and in Ryan he felt he had found a kindred spirit. So in 2010, Klein ran three long interviews with Ryan in which the congressman was able to frame even his most radical budget solutions as mere wonkery-as if the only thing he and Klein disagreed on were the details of, say, just exactly how to rein in health care costs in the out-years, when they were in fact separated by a gulf in beliefs and priorities.

"Klein then followed these transcripts up with a defense of Ryan against criticism from other liberals. One piece, headlined 'The Virtues of Ryan's roadmap," called Ryan's budget plans a 'more honest entry into the debate' than what conservatives usually offered. . More to the point, I think he's playing an important role, and one I'm happy to try and help him play: The worlds of liberals and conservatives are increasingly closed loops. Very few politicians from one side are willing to seriously engage with the other side, particularly on substance . . . The willingness to engage has made him look good.' Such approbation was a coup for Ryan -- and a blow for Democrats confronting his challenge ...

"The morning after Ryan's [convention] performance , ... Klein wrote ... -- in the more-in-sadness-than-in-anger style that's so popular in Washington -- that his engagement with Ryan was effectively defunct. 'The Romney campaign isn't adhering to the minimum standards required for a real policy conversation' ... I [asked] Klein ... whether he thought Ryan had used wonkery to cloak a rigid ideological agenda, partly by engaging with fellow policy geeks like himself. Klein [said] it should have been clear to everyone for some time now that Ryan is a 'very, very ambitious politician who is also a very fluent policy wonk.' He disputed the premise that he had given Ryan bipartisan cover at a crucial point in the congressman's career: 'I don't think of the blog as making an argument for liberalism. At this point in my life, I don't really think of myself as a liberal. That's not the project I'm part of, which is to let the facts take me where they do. That's why I gave him better coverage when the numbers added up and less so when they didn't.' ... Meanwhile, it's almost impossible to imagine Ryan losing favor among Republicans, even if he and Romney lose the election this fall." Online soon


Norman J. Ornstein is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and is most recently the co-author of “It’s Even Worse Than It Looks: How the American Constitutional System Collided With the New Politics of Extremism.”

Bob Woodward’s new book, “The Price of Politics,” makes him the latest in a string of Washington cognoscenti to compare Barack Obama’s personality unfavorably with Bill Clinton’s and to suggest that Obama’s presidency would be more successful if he were less introspective and aloof, more outgoing and more of a schmoozer. Although Woodward and pundits such as The Post’s Richard Cohen [“The solitary executive,” op-ed, Sept. 5] acknowledge the head winds that Obama has faced — an implacable Republican opposition, a surfeit of sulfurous anti-Obama rhetoric, racism sometimes only thinly disguised — they still lament Obama’s failure to return phone calls or to buddy up to business leaders or to have beers with members of Congress, traits that never would have been attached to Clinton.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...c=nl_headlines

EXAMINING OBAMA -- L.A. Times A1, "A prudent foreign policy, or timid?" ("This is the first in a series of articles on the record of the Obama administration"; also runs inside Chicago Tribune) by Paul Richter in Washington :

"On the afternoon of March 15 last year, President Obama and top advisors sat in the White House Situation Room poring over grainy satellite photos of an armored column thundering down on a largely unprotected Libyan city. Their choices appeared to be stark: Plunge the United States into a new war in the Arab world, or risk the slaughter of thousands. Obama decided to split the difference - committing the American military for part of the job. That decision has come to exemplify the Obama doctrine: Because Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi's assault on insurgents and civilians didn't directly endanger U.S. security, there was no justification for a major U.S.-led ground assault, the president decided. But, he said, the U.S. could take a role in protecting civilians if allies shared the burden, regional and international groups blessed the effort, and the mission was limited. ...
"Obama's approach to the use of force, as seen most clearly in Libya, is the cornerstone of a foreign policy that differs sharply from that of his predecessor, George W. Bush, but also from the paths pursued by recent Democratic presidents. ... [M]ore than other Democrats of the recent past, Obama has been willing to wield military power. As he nears four years in office, Obama has sent U.S. forces into at least eight countries, from Pakistan to West Africa, often covertly and with little public debate." http://lat.ms/Oy7Jmh

WINDSHEAR: John Heilemann goes HARD BEARISH on Romney in forthcoming New York mag column, "Trigger Happy Mitt" (online hed: "Don't Say 'Desperate '"): "[U]nlike the posturing and platitudes that constitute the bulk of what occurs on the campaign trail, big external events provide voters with something authentic and valuable: a real-time test of the temperament, character, and instincts of the men who would be commander-in-chief. And when it comes to the past week, the divergence between the resulting report cards could hardly be more stark. ... For Romney, the first blaring sign that his reaction to the assault on the consulate in Benghazi had badly missed the mark was the application of the phrase 'Lehman moment' [referring to McCain gape in '08] to his press availability on the morning of September 12.

"Here was America under attack, with four dead on foreign soil. And here was Romney, defiantly refusing to adopt a tone of sobriety, solemnity, or seriousness, instead attempting to score cheap political points, doubling down on his criticism from the night before ... [T]he right reacted ... harshly -- with former aides to John McCain, George W. Bush, and Ronald Reagan creating an on-the-record chorus of disapproval." http://bit.ly/PlB5RB

COMING NON-ATTRACTIONS - AP's Steve Peoples in Boston and Thomas Beaumont in Des Moines: "[T]he [Romney] campaign has no plans for any major policy speeches that break major new ground before the debates."

READING THE VOTERS' MINDS: The 34-page printout of last night's New York Times-CBS News poll (taken after the Democratic convention) provides X-ray vision for much of what the candidates are saying on the stump and on the air. Here are a few especially illuminating responses (all of these are from the weighted sample the poll calls "probable electorate"):

--If election held today: Obama/Biden, 46%; Romney/Ryan, 45%
--Add leaners: Obama/Biden, 49%; Romney/Ryan, 46%
--Country going in right direction: 38%; wrong track: 57%
--Most important issue in deciding how to vote: economy: 28%; jobs/unemployment: 13%; health care: 12%; budget deficit: 4%; Medicare/Medicaid: 2%; taxes: 2%
--Congressional approval: 12%; disapproval: 78%
--"The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility": 41% ... "The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility": 51%
--Obama favorable: 44% (unfavorable: 44%) ... Romney favorable: 37% (unfavorable: 38%) ... Biden favorable: 33% ... Ryan favorable: 29% (26% unfave; 32% haven't heard enough) ... Michelle Obama favorable: 61% ... Ann Romney favorable: 35% (12% unfave; 37% haven't heard enough) .. Bill Clinton: favorable 64%
--Which candidate would do more to help middle class Americans? Obama, 54%; Romney, 40% (In the full sample, 42% of respondents describe themselves as middle class.)
--If Romney were elected, his policies would favor: rich: 53% ... middle class: 8% ... poor: 1% ... treat all groups equally: 33%
--If Obama reelected, policies would favor: rich: 12% ... middle class: 26% ... poor: 22% ... treat all groups equally: 30%
--"Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same sex couples to marry?" Legal: 48% ... Not legal, 44%
--Continue Bush tax cuts for everyone: 34% ... Only for households earning less than $2500,000 a year, 46% ... Should expire for all: 13%
THE QUESTION BOSTON IS WATCHING MOST CLOSELY: "Do you think [name] does or does not understand the need and problems of people like yourself?"
--Obama: Yes, 60% ... No, 37%
--Romney: Yes, 46% ... No, 48%
WHAT MAKES BOSTON CRINGE:
--Medicare should stay as is, or "should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance": Continue as is, 77% ... Should be changed, 15%
WHAT MAKES CHICAGO CRINGE:
--Health-care law approval: 42% (disapproval: 50%)
--Repeal health-care law, in whole or in part: 58%
--Support photo ID to vote (even with question saying some "people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters"): 71%
"PROBABLE ELECTORATE" is 22% liberal, 33% moderate and 42% conservative; 35% Democrat, 29% Republican and 32% independent.
ALL RESPONDENTS (doesn't give figures for probable electorate):
--Only 1% of called themselves upper class; 76% said "middle" or "working"
--Support Tea Party movement: 27%; not a supporter, 66%
--Evangelical or born-again Christian: 29%
--Religious preference: Protestant: 48% ... Catholic 21% ... None: 19% ... Other: 6% ... Jewish 2% ... Muslim 1% ... DK/NA: 4% http://bit.ly/Qr6PUU

"Romney: 'Middle-income' is $200K to $250K and less" -AP's Steve Peoples in Boston: "Romney's comments came an interview broadcast Friday on ABC's 'Good Morning America.' 'No one can say my plan is going to raise taxes on middle-income people, because principle number one is (to) keep the burden down on middle-income taxpayers,' Romney told host George Stephanopoulos. 'Is $100,000 middle income?' Stephanopoulos asked. 'No, middle income is $200,000 to $250,000 and less,' Romney responded. His campaign later clarified that Romney was referencing household income, not individual income."

--L.A. Times A1, "Romney plan ups taxes on many: His proposal would require eliminating all deductions and credits for households making more than $100,000," by David Lauter: "Romney's budget plan would significantly raise income taxes for many families making between $100,000 and $200,000 ... Republican economists cited by the Romney campaign ... conclude that the plan could work as Romney has said, but that doing so would require eliminating all or most deductions and credits for households with income over $100,000. That would include wiping out such popular tax provisions as the deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions and state and local taxes." http://lat.ms/PhL7TW

PRESSWATCH - WashPost Ombudsman Patrick B. Pexton, in Sunday's paper, "Republicans win the coverage battle ": "The Post published 50 bylined news stories about the Democrats' convention ... It published 49 bylined stories ... about the Republicans ... In most other categories - opinion columns, editorials, graphics and photos - the Republicans garnered more coverage by comfortable margins. ... 131 photos of Republicans were published, 119 of Democrats. ... Mitt Romney appeared in 22 photos, with 12 of them shots of just him. He had three with his wife, Ann, one with his grandkids, three with ... Paul Ryan ... and one with ... Condoleezza Rice. The Post published one more photo of Obama than of Romney - 23, with 14 of those by himself and, tellingly, maybe two of him smiling. In all others he was sober. ...

"Interestingly, just one shot of Vice President Biden was published all week, whereas Romney's running mate was all over the paper. Seventeen shots of Ryan were published, 10 solo and seven with others. Michelle Obama had a slight edge over Ann Romney in photographs. Obama appeared in nine photos, six solo plus three with her husband and daughters. Romney appeared in eight shots, just one solo, the others with Mitt or her children. For Democrats, the big winner in photos after the Obamas, no surprise, was former president Bill Clinton, who appeared in 13 photos in all, six alone, one with his daughter, Chelsea, and six with President Obama. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who was traveling on State Department business, appeared just once in convention coverage." http://wapo.st/PlskqB

[Holly]

This thread suffers from information/spin overkill.
To improve things, I recommend we keep posts to specific topics and cut out the tons of diverse links to obscure issues no one has the time or inclination to read.

[Count Bobulescu]

This thread suffers from information/spin overkill.
To improve things, I recommend we keep posts to specific topics and cut out the tons of diverse links to obscure issues no one has the time or inclination to read.

Thank you for your commentary. My apologies, I forgot to delete the piece about Panetta and the protests. I’ve done that now. My modus is to paste from incoming emails and delete what is not relevant. Otherwise it’s all election oriented material consistent with the thread title. Some of the posts are now getting well above 100 clicks which is way above the average for PW threads, so I think I’ll leave well enough alone. I’m no authority on other people’s time, and don't know what they read or click, and I don’t know how you can implicitly claim to know either. Next you'll be calling for book burnings.

I object to your use of the word spin. Please explain.

If all this information is just too much for you........No one is forcing you to either read or click. Why don’t you and the Baron get together and start a thread about the Electoral College. He wanted to rename this thread for the EC. Do you have any other suggestions?

[Holly]

... My modus is to paste from incoming emails and delete what is not relevant.

There are too many. How many is too many? Hundreds. This prevents discussion. Short blogs on discreet issues can allow for other members to get a word in edgewise. You are spamming the thread with all your links and no one is discussing anything.
Please stop monopolizing the thread or I will start others myself about various U.S. presidential issues and leave you to hog this one all by yourself.

...I think I’ll leave well enough alone.

If the moderators do not bring some order to your monologue, you can continue to spam to your hearts content. In which case I propose the thread be renamed Count Bobulescu's reams of all and sundry links about the U.S. presidential election.

I object to your use of the word spin. Please explain.

Given the hundreds of links about a political process, there is bound to be lots of spin in the positions of each party's propaganda.

If all this information is just too much for you........No one is forcing you to either read or click.

I am interested in the U.S. presidential election and I would like to participate in a discussion in a political thread on Political World but this thread is out-of-control because it is not edited by you.

Why don’t you and the Baron get together and start a thread about the Electoral College. He wanted to rename this thread for the EC. Do you have any other suggestions?

You obviously put a lot of well-meaning effort into all this writing and it might be working for you. I hoped it could be edited and allow room for discussion but I am sure you see things differently.

[Count Bobulescu]

There are too many. How many is too many? Hundreds. This prevents discussion. Short blogs on discreet issues can allow for other members to get a word in edgewise. You are spamming the thread with all your links and no one is discussing anything.
Please stop monopolizing the thread or I will start others myself about various U.S. presidential issues and leave you to hog this one all by yourself.


If the moderators do not bring some order to your monologue, you can continue to spam to your hearts content. In which case I propose the thread be renamed Count Bobulescu's reams of all and sundry links about the U.S. presidential election.


Given the hundreds of links about a political process, there is bound to be lots of spin in the positions of each party's propaganda.


I am interested in the U.S. presidential election and I would like to participate in a discussion in a political thread on Political World but this thread is out-of-control because it is not edited by you.


You obviously put a lot of well-meaning effort into all this writing and it might be working for you. I hoped it could be edited and allow room for discussion but I am sure you see things differently.

Up until the party conventions I was posting in this thread mostly three times a week, Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.
Check the calendar. Since the conventions, I have been posting mostly once a day. Post # 669 was made forty eight hours after # 668. If you want to characterize that as spamming, you’ll do that, and I can’t help you.

You participated in the thread early on, but dropped out. Now you’re back with a sackful of complaints. No-one is denying you or anyone else from posting in this thread. DCon, Spectabilis, TotalMayhem, Morticia, Binn Béal, Sidewinder, Griska, Kev Bar, Andrew49, and C. Flower have all posted here recently. Maybe, instead of going all negative, you should just post something constructive and see what happens.

You still don’t get it if you think I write ANY of this stuff. I simply paste the content of emails from a variety of reputable news sources and format it. What you read here is not my work but the work of many journalists. They provide the synopsis of the link. It allows readers to pick and choose and gives a broader perspective than can be found in any one publication such NYT, WaPo etc. If you find it all overwhelming, you may not be up to the fast pace of US election coverage. I could probably post 3 times the amount I do, if I had the mind to.

You’re free to post in this thread, and free to start as many threads as the mods will permit. Go for it. Like I said at post 671 you should hook up with the Baron, he objects to the thread title. I can’t speak for him, but I suspect he’d be a willing partner.

[Count Bobulescu]

The Hill: Obama holds edge over Romney 50 days before the election
By Cameron Joseph
Obama is ahead of Romney by a narrow margin in most national polls, and has a slightly wider lead in most swing states, giving Romney almost no room for error.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...e-the-election

The Hill: With voting under way, Romney camp faces test from Obama’s ground game
By Niall Stanage
The Obama campaign has a near-legendary reputation in this regard, built upon the field operation that propelled the then-senator to victory over Hillary Clinton and, later, John McCain in 2008. The Romney campaign, however, insists that it has an infrastructure in place that will level the playing field.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...as-ground-game


The New York Times: Amid discord, Romney seeks to sharpen message
By Jim Rutenberg and Jeff Zeleny
With time dwindling for him to gain an edge in the presidential race and with an outbreak of finger-pointing signaling trouble in his campaign, Mitt Romney plans to begin an offensive this week, his aides said, seeking to give voters a clearer picture of where he wants to take the country.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/17/us...1&ref=politics


Bloomberg: Wall Street walks as defense, tech back Obama's campaign
By Jonathan D. Salant
Health care, telecommunications and defense industry workers are fueling President Barack Obama’s re-election campaign, even as Wall Street walks away from his candidacy.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-campaign.html

MITT ROMNEY, in the midst of his highest-stakes 24 hours since the announcement of Paul Ryan, is jettisoning the economy-economy-economy mantra that had been the basic precept of his campaign since he first contemplated running again. After POLITICO last night revealed internal dissent over the message side of the Boston operation, the campaign announced that Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser whose stock has soared since he joined the campaign in April, will hold an 11 a.m. press conference call, "Message Preview For This Week / State Of The Race."

STUART STEVENS , Romney's chief strategist, tells us that the new frame will be "status quo vs. change": "The events abroad are disconcerting and don't reinforce that the status quo leadership is positive. ... There's nothing that is happening, at home or abroad, that doesn't reinforce the need for strong leadership and a change."

Obama outspent Romney on the air by 7-to-1 during the two convention weeks: Obama spent $20 million on 37,000 ads; Romney spent $3.3 million on 4,500 ads, mostly in Hispanic media, according to Kantar Media/CMAG. Stevens said the campaign went dark because "the dominant story was going to be the convention. ... We would rather have that $20 million to spend now that it's not competing with the conventions. You have to be disciplined about these things."

Stevens insisted, contrary to the view of most strategists, that national trends matter most at this point in the race. "Tracking polls track the race," he insisted. "It would be like walking into a department store with 50 different scales and standing on them. ... I think Mitt Romney is going to win." He paused and added: "Fairly comfortably." http://politi.co/RfMhDk

--JON WARD on HuffPost, "Romney Nicks Leadership Cred With Unforced Errors": "[T]he Republican nominee's response to cascading events in the Middle East last week damaged him in an area where he should be strong. ... If events overseas continue to unravel, Obama will be forced to deal more directly with the issue of whether his foreign policy has failed. But debates over policy outcomes can sometimes do less to shape voter attitudes than do key moments in the campaign. ...

"[E]ven on matters of substance, Romney has come under broad criticism from many in his own party for running a vacuous and low-risk campaign. Many who thought his choice of Ryan signaled a new and bolder phase of his campaign have said that he has gone back to vague platitudes on the stump, sticking mostly to blaming Obama for the lousy economy." http://huff.to/UeA4hj


Romney’s mishandling of the Middle East crisis was driven by desperation. ”Suddenly, the president was facing just the kind of externality that his team had been bracing for: a full-blown -foreign-policy crisis less than eight weeks out from Election Day. And a campaign marked by stasis and even torpor was jolted to life as if by a pair of defibrillator paddles applied squarely to its solar plexus. Moments like this are not uncommon in presidential elections, and when they come, they tend to matter. For unlike the posturing and platitudes that constitute the bulk of what occurs on the campaign trail, big external events provide voters with something authentic and valuable: a real-time test of the temperament, character, and instincts of the men who would be commander-in-chief. And when it comes to the past week, the divergence between the resulting report cards could hardly be more stark…Here was -America under attack, with four dead on foreign soil. And here was Romney, defiantly refusing to adopt a tone of sobriety, solemnity, or seriousness, instead attempting to score cheap political points, doubling down on his criticism.” John Heilemann in New York Magazine.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/power...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Romney is losing ground on key issues.

On the deficit: “Romney has consistently enjoyed a wide advantage on only one issue: the nation's gaping budget deficit. But now the Republican presidential nominee, who tried to bolster his deficit credentials by picking a budget hawk, Rep. Paul Ryan, as his running mate, is at a significant risk of losing the edge on the policy area that voters have trusted him most on…Two recent national polls show a narrow gap between Romney and Obama on the deficit…The cumulative effect seems to be taking a toll on Romney's reputation as someone who will fix the nation's debt burden.” Zachary A. Goldfarb in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/busine...wpisrc=nl_wonk


On taxes: “Mitt Romney, who has proposed new cuts to individual and corporate taxes, has lost his recent lead over President Barack Obama on the question of which presidential candidate would best handle taxation, a reversal that turns up in several polls and presents a worrisome trend for the GOP nominee…At least four polls in recent weeks have found Mr. Obama holding an edge over Mr. Romney on who would best handle the issue of taxes. An ABC/Washington Post poll last week found Mr. Obama with a seven-point advantage on taxes among registered voters, after Mr. Romney had led in that survey in August. A Gallup poll in late August found Mr. Obama holding a nine-point lead on the issue of taxes, after Mr. Romney led in July.” John D. McKinnon in The Wall Street Journal.

On health care: “Voters may not love ‘ObamaCare,’ but they still prefer President Obama to Mitt Romney on healthcare issues. Several recent polls show Obama with an advantage — often a sizeable one — when voters are asked which candidate would do a better job handling healthcare. Obama held that lead even before Romney selected Paul Ryan as his running mate, which elevated the debate over Ryan's controversial Medicare plan…A CNN/ORC poll earlier this week gave Obama a nine-point lead on healthcare (up from just 1 point a month earlier).” Sam Baker in The Hill.

http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Congressional GOP to Romney: change course. ”Republican law
makers are grumbling about the direction of Mitt Romney's campaign and say he needs to change course. The complaints come as polls show that Romney lost ground on President Obama following the party's respective conventions in Tampa, Fla. and Charlotte, N.C…The GOP members say Romney must do a better job of communicating to voters what to expect of him, either by making a bold pledge akin to George H.W. Bush's 1988 ‘no new taxes’ promise or fleshing policy proposals with more details.” Alexander Bolton in The Hill.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...wpisrc=nl_wonk

STRASSEL: Romney’s campaign lacks policy definition. “Credit for this fog goes to that inner circle of Romney advisers who never liked the Ryan pick and have reasserted their will over a candidate who is naturally cautious. In the la-la land where adviser Stuart Stevens presides, Mr. Romney wins by never saying a single thing, ever, that might rock a single boat, ever. Just keep the focus on Mr. Obama. After all, no president has ever won with an economy like this. One problem: Mr. Obama is winning.” Kimberly Strassel in The Wall Street Journal.


Election forecasting models show Obama with a slim-but-steady lead. ”[P]olls are not predictive…A better way to forecast the election results — potentially, at least — is to uncover the underlying fundamentals that propel an electorate to vote the way it does, and to combine them in some rigorous, standard fashion based on America's voting history. Quite a number of political scientists have done so, creating models that use statistical techniques such as regression analysis — seeing how one variable, like the economy, affects another, like an election outcome — to predict presidential elections…The chances of an Obama plurality range from a mere 10% to a definitive 88%. For whatever it is worth, the average of the models' projected vote for President Obama…is 50.2% — a tiny advantage for Obama, but hardly ironclad.” Larry J. Sabato at the U.Va Center for Politics.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cry...presidential-election-other-crystal-balls/?wpisrc=nl_wonk

EIGHT REASONS WHY DOUG SOSNIK IS CONFIDENT FOR OBAMA: Mark Halperin posts a memo and PowerPoint from the highly-respected Democratic operative, best known for his work in the Clinton White House. "At this point in the campaign, the polling trends suggest that a radical transformation of the current political zeitgeist seems unlikely," he writes.
1. Obama's Job Approval Ratings have Held Steady.
2. Obama has Maintained a Year-Long Lead in the Race.
3. Almost 9 in 10 Obama and Romney Supporters are Certain About Their Vote.
4. Obama's Support Has Remained Stable Despite Voter Disappointment with the Direction of the Country.
5. Voters Still Blame Bush More than Obama for Economic Problems.
6. Republicans' Low Approval Ratings Work Against Romney.
7. Voters View Obama Favorably.
8. Voters Continue to View Romney Unfavorably." Check out his 24-page PowerPoint: http://goo.gl/yZsSl. Read the 8-page memo: http://goo.gl/0oew1.


VIDEO LEAKS FROM FUNDRAISER: Taegan Goddard's Political Wire posts a two-minute clip of Romney talking about visiting/buying a Chinese factory with ghastly working conditions as a partner at Bain Capital. He says about 20,000 worked at the factory, which made small appliances, and that there was a fence with barbed-wire to keep new workers from sneaking in. He describes a dozen girls crammed into each room. Romney's message is that America is a remarkable country. He notes that a business partner told him "95 percent of life is settled if you're born in America." The time and place of the fundraiser is not revealed: http://goo.gl/8TxQg.

$600 MILLION AD SPENDING THRESHOLD CROSSED: TV and radio spending for the presidential election reached $605.7 million at the end of last week, NBC reports. Romney and outside groups supporting him are outspending, but the margin is tightening: $318.5 million from Team Romney and $287.2 million from Team Obama. 54 percent of all the money, $327 million, has been spent in three states: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Domenico Montanaro notes that Obama spending actually leads in all three: 60.7 to 60.3 in Florida, 63.6 to 53.3 in Ohio and 47.9 to 42.4 in Virginia. Talk about putting your money where your mouth is: http://goo.gl/HRRck.


WARREN REBOUNDS IN TWO NEW POLLS: A poll conducted by the Western New England University Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com, published yesterday, shows Warren leading Brown 50 to 44 percent among likely voters: http://goo.gl/TlMfU. A Public Policy Poll out last night put Warren up 48-46. She trailed in the Democratic poll 49-44 last month: http://goo.gl/FqYfq

The Hill: Poll: Warren opens up 6-point lead over Brown in Mass. Senate race
By Peter Schroeder
Elizabeth Warren has opened up a 6-point lead against Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) in their hotly contested senatorial race, according to a new poll.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...ead-over-brown

LIGHTER CLICKS -

THE NATIONAL ZOO says giant female panda Mei Xiang has given birth to a cub! http://goo.gl/Z8JsW

SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE premiered with a cold open featuring Obama (played by Jay Pharoah) saying he's not nervous because he's got a secret weapon (hint: his name is Romney): http://goo.gl/YYNyM.

CLINT EASTWOOD got mocked in another SNL skit: http://goo.gl/IWJBU.

DAVID GREGORY dances "Gangnam style" (like he's riding a horse) to the Korean pop sensation "PSY" as a guest host on the Today show: http://goo.gl/lR5XA. (Definitely watch through about 3:30.)

JILL LEPORE traces the roots of political consulting and explains how it radically changed American politics in the forthcoming issue of the New Yorker. Good read: http://goo.gl/xKjv8.

THE NEW YORKER runs two covers this week by Roz Chast. This one represents the Republican Party: http://goo.gl/hkpXc. The other represents the Democratic Party: http://goo.gl/d2T4Z.

GUN STORES expect a surge in sales if Obama wins reelection, the Wall Street Journal reports today: http://goo.gl/UcpbF.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I think I owe that to my supporters, to at least consider a run." - Christine O'Donnell on a possible 2014 bid for Senate http://goo.gl/8urt9

[Count Bobulescu]

Today, Mitt Romney Lost the Election

You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney's campaign for president.
Romney is the most opaque presidential nominee since Nixon, and people have been reduced to guessing what his true feelings are. This video provides an answer: He feels that you're a loser. It's not an answer that wins elections.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-0...-election.html

Mitt Romney: 'Victims' comment not elegantly stated.

At an impromptu news conference Monday, Romney offered no apologies, conceding the comments were not "elegantly stated" and were spoken "off the cuff." The Republican presidential nominee said the remarks showed a contrast between President Barack Obama's "government-centered society" and his belief in a "free-market approach."

http://www.newsday.com/elections/mit...ated-1.4012121

New Romney Video: Israeli Peace ‘Almost Unthinkable’

A new and potentially embarrassing video has surfaced from the same fundraising event that got Mitt Romney into hot water on Monday, but this time the focus is on foreign policy and peace between Israelis and Palestinians, which he calls "almost unthinkable".
In the video, Romney responds to a question about the “Palestinian problem” by saying that Palestinians have "no interest whatsoever in establishing peace, and that the pathway to peace is almost unthinkable to accomplish."

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...able--20120918

Romney Courts Hispanics, Wishes He Were One of Them
Romney on Monday promised to reform immigration laws, but ducked questions about whether he would continue President Obama’s policy of exempting college students and military personnel from deportation. And in a video released by Mother Jones, he is heard saying he could be elected more easily if he were Latino.

On a day that the Republican challenger devoted to Hispanic issues and message-making, a video clip of an appearance by Romney at a private fundraiser was released by the liberal magazine Mother Jones. In the video, Romney is heard saying, “My dad, as you probably know, was the governor of Michigan and was the head of a car company. But he was born in Mexico ... and had he been born of Mexican parents, I’d have a better shot at winning this. But he was unfortunately born to Americans living in Mexico. He lived there for a number of years. I mean, I say that jokingly, but it would be helpful to be Latino.”

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...-them-20120917

This comment suggests a few things. First, it suggests that he really doesn’t know much about the country he inhabits. Who are these freeloaders? Is it the Iraq war veteran who goes to the V.A.? Is it the student getting a loan to go to college? Is it the retiree on Social Security or Medicare?

Personally, I think he’s a kind, decent man who says stupid things because he is pretending to be something he is not — some sort of cartoonish government-hater. But it scarcely matters. He’s running a depressingly inept presidential campaign. Mr. Romney, your entitlement reform ideas are essential, but when will the incompetence stop

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/op...ll-romney.html

A problem ‘entitled’ Romney

Mitt Romney is in deep trouble after a video surfaces of him describing 47 percent of Americans as ‘dependent’ and ‘entitled.’ “During a private fundraiser earlier this year, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney told a small group of wealthy contributors what he truly thinks of all the voters who support President Barack Obama. He dismissed these Americans as freeloaders who pay no taxes, who don’t assume responsibility for their lives, and who think government should take care of them.” David Corn in Mother Jones.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/...wpisrc=nl_wonk

TEAM ROMNEY IN DISARRAY. Romney isn’t losing because his advisers are arguing. But he eventually could be, writes National Journal’s Alex Roarty. Stories in which a campaign’s internal dissension suddenly becomes public are common for political operations with eroding poll numbers. The real danger for Romney will be if the intramural squabbles themselves become the story, painting a picture of a campaign that is flailing as it tries to oust an incumbent president. Read more

http://www.nationaljournal.com/polit...mney--20120918

NATE SILVER, in Sunday's N.Y. Times Magazine, on his "TIPPING POINT" STATES: "If Romney makes gains in Wisconsin, for example, he will probably also do so in neighboring Minnesota. ... The most plausible range of outcomes runs from Obama losing the election by about two percentage points, slightly better than John Kerry did, to his winning it by perhaps six or seven, slightly worse than his margin from four years ago. Given where the election is being contested, however, the most likely outcome is that Obama wins enough tipping-point states to eke out a victory." http://nyti.ms/POfxPt

"WHY OBAMA IS WINNING," "Unemployment is over 8 percent. Nearly 60 percent of Americans ... believe the country is on the wrong track. The number of people on food stamps is at a historic high and the median net worth of American families is at a 20-year low. If it was true that winning elections is mostly a matter of numbers - as some political scientists and campaign operatives like to argue - Barack Obama's reelection as president should be close to a mathematical impossibility. ... But 2012 is proving that politics isn't just about numbers ... With Obama holding a narrow but so far sturdy lead over Mitt Romney in polls, many incredulous Republicans sound like the Michael Dukakis character in a 1988 Saturday Night Live skit: 'I can't believe I'm losing to this guy.'

"The phenomenon is the result of three powerful factors, according to interviews with some two dozen political veterans from both parties. ..
1) A Democratic landscape: The state-by-state polls this fall make it clear: The 2008 presidential election was no anomaly. The Upper South and interior West are now competitive terrain and will be in future White House races. That means Democrats have more margin for error than Republicans ...
2) The incumbent's staying power ... Obama ... remains in the minds of many voters a historic figure - not just another embattled incumbent. ...
3) The challenger's flaws." http://politi.co/QkWs7

Here’s a good takedown of Romney’s 47 percent claims.

Let’s set aside the question of whether this is what Mitt Romney really believes deep down in his heart. Maybe this is what he thinks. Or maybe he just thought it was a good line to buck up jittery donors. What we can say is that the last part is wrong. There is no fair accounting in which 47 percent of Americans take no “personal responsibility and care for their lives.” Take this simple breakdown from the Tax Policy Center of what households paid in taxes in 2011:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...-those-people/

HOW BAD IS THIS? So much for that Romney Reset. This is more damaging than Libya because it feeds the caricature that Romney is heartless, arrogant and not concerned about "people like you." It will fire up the president's base, and it could break through to a segment of low-information voters who could care less about foreign policy. It comes at a time when Romney (facing a coagulating "campaign in disarray" story line) needs desperately to land a punch on Obama. On the other hand, many conservatives are likely to rally behind Romney. Many who don't pay income tax think they do. Here are some questions that will determine how long this story's legs are:
(1) Will down-ballot Republicans distance themselves?
(2) How damaging is the additional tape Mother Jones has?
(3) What does Romney do to show that he does not think 47% of voters are moochers?
(4) How much paid media will the Obama campaign put behind highlighting the line? "It's hard to serve as president for all Americans when you've disdainfully written off half the nation," Jim Messina said in a statement last night that could foreshadow an attack ad. American Bridge 21st Century already turned a web video, the first of what will surely be many: http://goo.gl/y3tHO.
(5) Do Obama's two New York fundraisers today compel him to personally pull his punches or will he engage with the story on Letterman?

But in a preview of what is likely to be a chorus of Democratic attacks launched Tuesday, senior Obama adviser David Axelrod mocked Romney's explanation on Twitter late Monday night.

"Q for Mitt," Axelrod wrote. "So how DO you 'elegantly state' that half of America sees themselves as 'victims' who refuse to take personal responsibility?"

Romney took only three questions during the press conference, and immediately left the stage. The Republican nominee is not scheduled to have any public appearances on Tuesday.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...damage-control

The Obama campaign on Monday tried to raise expectations for Mitt Romney's performance in this fall's presidential debates, labeling them "make or break" for the Republican nominee.
Jennifer Psaki, the traveling press secretary for Obama's reelection campaign, noted that the president had not participated in debates in four years, while Romney had been in about 20 in the past 12 months or so because of the Republican primary. For Romney, the debates represent a "make-or-break" moment, Psaki said.
Obama and Romney's first debate, on Oct. 3 at the University of Denver in Colorado, will focus on domestic issues.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...-make-or-break

WHY OBAMA IS WINNING

1) A Democratic landscape: "The Upper South and interior West are now competitive terrain and will be in future White House races. That means Democrats have more margin for error than Republicans when it comes to cobbling together 270 electoral votes. As more voters, both transients from other states and immigrants, have poured into states like Nevada, Colorado, Virginia and North Carolina, political demographics in these places have been transformed." And, of course, there's a structural problem with Hispanics...

2) The incumbent's staying power: "Minorities have been harder hit by the recession than whites, yet surveys show that they feel better off now than before Obama and are more optimistic about the future than whites...Swaths of centrist voters believe the president inherited a mess and that George W. Bush and the Republicans are more to blame for the dismal economy than Obama and the Democrats."

3) The challenger's flaws: "Romney's advisers have started coming in for the predictable criticism that's inevitable in a campaign that's losing. But as big an issue is the candidate's own profound weaknesses - he has a résumé that's uniquely vulnerable to attack during difficult economic times and has little in the way of political self-awareness... Beyond his background, Romney also is often his own worst enemy on the stump." http://goo.gl/uZoEI

RICKETTS AD BLITZ LIKELY TO BE ON MESSAGE: "Unlike the controversial aborted pitch for a $10-million attack highlighting Rev. Jeremiah Wright, billionaire investor Joe Ricketts's new super PAC campaign will use themes and players blessed by Romney and his allies". "The Ricketts-funded super PAC announced that it would spend $10 million on ads starting this week boosting Romney.The team assembled to carry out the campaign overlaps significantly with the one behind the Romney-blessed super PAC Restore Our Future, including election lawyer Charlie Spies, and ad-maker Larry McCarthy." http://goo.gl/Lcp5C

ROMNEY CLAIMS HE'S NEVER MET KRIS KOBACH: The Kansas secretary of state is loathed by Latino activists for his hardline positions, and Romney's campaign has called him an "informal adviser." But during a Univision interview yesterday, Romney said he's "not met with him yet." The campaign later clarified that they've met at campaign events but not in "formal policy meetings." CNN's Peter Hamby: http://goo.gl/LJY0a.

LIGHTER CLICKS

Perhaps this is just the GOP’s new strategy? ”Calling a GOP victory in the 2012 presidential election antithetical to the party platform, top Republicans revealed a new long-term political strategy Tuesday: reelecting Barack Obama and making his life even more of a living hell than it already is…’If we are going to make the president a haggard shell of a human being by the time he leaves the White House, we need four more years of never compromising, four more years of miring every piece of legislation in unnecessary procedural muck, four more years of pretending we want to work with the president and then walking away from the table at the last second,’ McConnell added. ‘Four more years! Four more years! Obama 2012!’” The Onion.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/new...wpisrc=nl_wonk

JIMMY CARTER'S GRANDSON, a looking-for-work opposition researcher named James, helped connect Mother Jones with whoever recorded the video of Romney's fundraiser. He talks with New York Magazine: http://goo.gl/kNhLd.

STEPHEN COLBERT made fun of Romney's premature Libya announcement: http://goo.gl/cdOA7.

JON STEWART attacks Sean Hannity for hypocritically criticizing Obama for democracy promotion when he praised George W. Bush for the same thing: http://goo.gl/rbUur.

A YOUTUBE VIDEO rearranges quotes from Obama's "you didn't build that" speech to the tune of MC Hammer's 1990 hit "U Can't Touch This." http://goo.gl/hYRRX

FOX AND FRIENDS got pranked by a 20-year-old: http://goo.gl/P4oyB.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "My dad, as you probably know, was the governor of Michigan and was the head of a car company. But he was born in Mexico ... and uh, had he been born of uh, Mexican parents, I'd have a better shot at winning this." - Romney jokes that "it would be helpful to be Latino" at the surreptitiously-recorded fundraiser http://goo.gl/ii7yQ