US Presidential Election 2012

[Count Bobulescu]

Romney being cryptic

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-n...l-3190289.html

Seems like “cryptic” is Romney’s middle name. He has made several general proposals across various policy areas but has not said how they would be funded or implemented. He is trying to skate by with an old “trust me” smile.

Then there is the controversy about his decision to publicly release only two years of his tax returns. When McCain vetted him for Veep in 08 he provided the McCain campaign with 20 years of tax returns. The joke is that McCain took one look at those and picked Palin.

[Count Bobulescu]

The Hill: Romney campaign unable to shake Democratic attacks on tax records
By Cameron Joseph

Republicans are pushing back strongly against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) claims Mitt Romney failed to pay taxes in multiple years, but the controversy and Democratic pressure on the GOP candidate to release more of his tax records shows little sign of dying down.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/...on-tax-records

Priebus Calls Reid a 'Dirty Liar'
Republican National Committee Chair Reince Priebus echoed the new Republican attack on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Sunday, accusing him of being a "dirty liar" for his comments about Mitt Romney's tax returns, as National Journal's Alexandra Jaffe reports.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...liar--20120805

Axelrod Won't Support Reid's Claim on Romney's Taxes
David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the Obama campaign, on Sunday reiterated calls for Mitt Romney to release more tax returns but declined to support Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s assertion – made without any evidence to publicly back it up – that the soon-to-be Republican presidential nominee didn't pay taxes at all for years, as National Journal's Alex Roarty reports.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...taxes-20120805

Mitt Romney raised $101.3 million in the month of July, his campaign said Monday, marking the second straight month in which the GOP presidential candidate has pulled in nine figures.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...g.html?hpid=z5

[Count Bobulescu]

WASHINGTON POST A1-"OBAMA ASSOCIATE GOT $100,000 FEE FROM AFFILIATE OF FIRM DOING BUSINESS WITH IRAN": "David Plouffe, a senior White House adviser who was President Obama's 2008 campaign manager, accepted a $100,000 speaking fee in 2010 from an affiliate of a company doing business with Iran's government. A subsidiary of MTN Group, a South Africa-based telecommunications company, paid Plouffe for two speeches he made in Nigeria in December 2010, about a month before he joined the White House staff. Since Plouffe's speeches, MTN Group has come under intensified scrutiny from U.S. authorities because of its activities in Iran and Syria, which are under international sanctions intended to limit the countries' access to sensitive technology. At the time of Plouffe's speeches, MTN had been in a widely reported partnership for five years with a state-owned Iranian telecommunications firm. There were no legal or ethical restrictions on Plouffe being paid to speak to the MTN subsidiary as a private citizen. But for a close Obama aide to have accepted payment from a company involved in Iran could prove troublesome for the president as the White House toughens its stance toward the Islamic republic...Plouffe has had no role in administration discussions on whether MTN Group or other companies might be sanctioned because of its activities in Iran, [White House] officials said. MTN executives denied violating any sanctions but acknowledged that they have been in discussions with administration authorities for months." http://wapo.st/Mna9gV

A REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST POUNCES: "This is more than just a single speech. Note MTN's admission in the story that they've been dealing with the administration for months. In November 2010, White House announced that Plouffe was joining the Administration as a high-level adviser. In December 2010, MTN pays Plouffe $100K. Now the company admits it has been meeting with U.S. officials on whether they've been violating sanctions...Timing looks bad here. Add that to Lew (Solyndra), Emanuel (Solyndra), Messina (ObamaCare) and others, Obama's inner circle in trouble..."

A DEMOCRAT CLOSE TO PLOUFFE PUSHES BACK-TELLS SCORE THIS IS A NON-STORY: "The biggest point that The Post largely ignores is that there's nothing remarkable about this. For example, Colin Powell spoke to Credit Suisse before he was Sec State (one May 2000 speech to Credit Suisse Financial Services for $127,500, one September 2000 speech to Credit Suisse First Boston for $59,500). Lawrence Lindsey spoke to UBS before joining Bush Administration. Both UBS and Credit Suisse were later cited for violations re: financing Iran - and at the time, it was known that that Credit Suisse had a long history of working with Iran/dealing with the Iranian regime, including having an Iran desk, seeking business in Iran through the Swiss government, working with the Iranian government, etc. Powell was confirmed as SECRETARY OF STATE with direct responsibility for these matters. There was never any mention of recusal, returning the honoraria, nor did the Post work itself into a lather about it." Evidence: http://bit.ly/NvyfWy.

"Two, MTN's main competitor, Turkcell, was initially awarded this same contract in Iran. And Mitt Romney is an investor in the company."

"Three, dozens of companies do business with Iran in some way shape or form, and there are surely many politicians who have given speeches to/received income from them: http://bit.ly/NWc3uM. What's worse, at the same time that Plouffe was giving these speeches, Romney was on the board of Marriott, when the leading watchdog group asked it to cancel an Iranian investment conference at one of its German hotels. Instead of taking action, Marriott let the conference go forward and said it didn't take political positions." Evidence: http://bit.ly/QvALBr.

OBAMA GIVES LITTLE ACCESS TO NATIONAL MEDIA: "In 2012, Obama has done 58 local media interviews and eight national media interviews, according to information provided by CBS News' Mark Knoller... More than half of those local interviews were with journalists located in swing states," The Huffington Post's Michael Calderone writes in a data-filled story on the president's media strategy. "Obama hasn't appeared on any of the four Sunday morning public affairs shows -- NBC's Meet the Press, ABC's This Week, CBS's Face the Nation and CNN's State of the Union -- since Sept. 20, 2009, when he argued for health care reform. The president hasn't appeared on Fox News Sunday since the 2008 campaign ... Indeed, Obama generally avoids taking questions from reporters before, say, a cabinet meeting or after a bill signing. He has taken fewer such questions than all four previous presidents -- 99 through May 2012 compared to Clinton's 538 at the same time in his presidency... Obama has only had one formal, solo news conference with the national media so far in 2012, the same as Bush at this point during his reelection year." http://huff.to/TaMncM


"ROMNEY PERSONA NON GRATA IN ITALY FOR BAIN'S DEAL SKIRTING TAXES": Bloomberg says it was prudent for Romney to skip Italy on his Europe swing. "That's because Bain Capital, under Romney as chief executive officer, made about $1 billion in a leveraged buyout 12 years ago that remains controversial in Italy to this day," Jesse Drucker, Elisa Martinuzzi and Lorenzo Totaro report. "Bain was part of a group that bought a telephone-directory company from the Italian government and then sold it about two years later, at the peak of the technology bubble, for about 25 times what it paid. Bain funneled profits through subsidiaries in Luxembourg, a common corporate strategy for avoiding income taxes in other European countries, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News. The buyer, Italy's biggest telephone company, now has a total market value less than what it paid Bain and other investors for the directory business. In Italy, the deals have spurred at least three books, separate legal and regulatory probes and newspaper columns alleging investors made a fortune at the expense of Italian taxpayers. Boston-based Bain wasn't a subject of the inquiries, which didn't result in any charges...Romney himself probably earned more than $50 million, and possibly as much as $60 million from the Italian directory sale of Seat Pagine Gialle SpA , according to a person familiar with the matter. The deal turned into one of the biggest windfalls of his tenure." http://bloom.bg/Pza8qk


DAN BALZ SAYS ROMNEY LOST JULY : "The best that can be said ... is that he survived," Dan wrote in his Sunday column. "His foreign trip drew extensive and negative news coverage...Back home, due to the daily combat between his and President Obama's campaigns, Romney sustained some damage....In July he went backward. Negative impressions now outweigh positive impressions by 15 percentage points - 52 to 37 percent [in a Pew survey]. A month ago, the difference was just six points...The newest numbers put Romney among the worst-rated presidential nominees in the past seven elections." He concludes his column by saying Romney needs a good VP rollout and an exceptional convention speech to show whether he's up for the challenges that await him: http://wapo.st/QvDNFS. ABC's Rick Klein said Romney is looking to "reset" his campaign in August: http://abcn.ws/MnAJX9.

ESCALATING LAWSUITS OVER BALLOT COUNTING: The Post's Bob Barnes has a high-altitude look at the legal fight over ballot access in the swing states. "Lawyers in Colorado are poised to challenge the secretary of state's proposed purge of noncitizens from voter rolls. A half-dozen suits are aimed at Florida's raft of voting changes. A Pennsylvania judge is deciding whether a voter ID law there violates the state constitution. In Ohio, the Obama campaign has filed suit against a law passed by the state's Republican leadership to shorten the early-voting period." http://wapo.st/N8xZB2

ROMNEY TALKERS-
REBUFFS ADELSON PUSH FOR POLLARD'S RELEASE: "Casino tycoon Sheldon Adelson...is pressing the Republican nominee to come out for the release of Israeli spy Jonathan Pollard, a major Republican donor and associates of Adelson and Romney tell The Daily Beast," Eli Lake and Dan Ephron scooped yesterday. "Romney has rejected the request so far, telling Adelson he would have to review the relevant intelligence material accessible to him as president before granting Pollard clemency, said the sources, who are relaying accounts of conversations from both Adelson and Romney." http://bit.ly/Q9XEX3

HIS FOREIGN POLICY TEAM STRUGGLES TO SHARPEN MESSAGE: Senior Romney campaign officials acknowledge to The Washington Post's Karen DeYoung and Scott Wilson that they need to sharpen their message and its delivery. "One official said it was a mistake to leave reporters to focus on gaffes, limiting the traveling press corps' access to the candidate to only three questions on his first day of meetings and not a single news conference after that. In interviews since Romney's return, nearly a dozen campaign officials, advisers and GOP conservatives discussed his foreign policy positions...While Obama has focused on the limits of American power, they said, Romney would engage both allies and adversaries based on a belief that forceful U.S. activism is needed to shape world events." http://wapo.st/OWhfNo

OBAMA TALKERS-

HE'S COURTING SINGLE WOMEN TO OFFSET DEFICIT WITH MARRIED ONES: "Single women are one of the country's fastest-growing demographic groups - there are 1.8 million more now than just two years ago. They make up a quarter of the voting-age population nationally, and even more in several swing states, including Nevada," Shaila Dewan writes in the Times. "And though they lean Democratic - in a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, single women favored Mr. Obama over [Romney] by 29 points - they are also fickle about casting their ballots, preoccupied with making ends meet and alienated from a political system they say is increasingly deaf to their concerns. But the Obama campaign, needing their support to offset traditional Republican strength among married women, is lavishing attention on them." http://nyti.ms/MKtLwR

MONEY-
OBAMA, DNC RAISED $75 MILLION IN JULY: Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised $75 million last month, compared to $101 million for Romney and RNC. USA TODAY's headline is: "Romney campaign is on three-month winning streak." http://usat.ly/OIsSFw

SMALL DONORS NOT MAKING A HUGE DIFFERENCE: "Roughly 2.5 million people have kicked in $200 or less to the various committees helping their candidate win the White House. But those 2.5 million people account for less than 18 percent of the total money haul," Ken Vogel writes in the story leading our site. "By contrast, 2,100 donors giving $50,000 or more have contributed about $200 million to the Obama and Romney campaign committees, victory funds and their supportive super PACs. That's far more than the $148 million all those 2.5 million small donors contributed through the end of June, according to an analysis of Federal Election Commission data by POLITICO and the Campaign Finance Institute. In other words: In an election purportedly being driven by the economic concerns of the middle class, the top 0.07 percent of donors are more valuable than the bottom 86 percent. This isn't true only at the extremes. Look across the full $830 million that those committees have raised, and the disparities are also stark: Just 14 percent of the donors account for 82 percent of the total take." http://politi.co/OKesHM

LIGHTER CLICKS

JON STEWART went off on Judith Miller last night for condemning national security leaks as a Fox News analyst, even though she regularly wrote up leaked classified information as a reporter for the New York Times: http://bit.ly/O2ssLk.

RUSS CARNAHAN, facing a tough primary in Missouri today, appeared on the Colbert Report last week. He drank a Bud Light Lime: http://bit.ly/MtpQcf.

AMATEURS have created tons of not-so-super PACs to take on a variety of random causes, like heading off the sale of Alaska (?), because it's so easy to set one up. Today's Wall Street Journal's A-hed: http://on.wsj.com/MtkRZ6.

JOHN SUNUNU, a former White House chief of staff (!), cannot be tamed. Here's a 90-second montage of the Romney surrogate who reporters always turn up the volume for unplugged: http://politi.co/PC81lL.

LEVI JOHNSTON is trying to get full custody of Sarah Palin's grandson in light of Bristol's reality show about being a single mother: http://bit.ly/Rhliog.

ANDREW YOUNG, the ex-aide to John Edwards, will not be prosecuted for criminal contempt: http://bit.ly/MKsE0h.

THE CROWD at the Olympics stadium sings along to "All You Need Is Love." http://bit.ly/Qa5Fv9.

HARVEY WEINSTEIN thinks Obama is "the Paul Newman of American presidents." http://wapo.st/Nasjqc

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I got a chance to see 'Batman,' and she was the best thing in it. That's just my personal opinion." - Barack Obama flatters 29-year-old Anne Hathaway at his Westport, Connecticut, fundraiser last night http://eonli.ne/MZWpib

[Spectabilis]

Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin is to be named as Mitt Romney's running mate today.


He has said ' If somebody is going to try to paste a person's view on epistemology to me, then give me Thomas Aquinas. Don't give me Ayn Rand."[25]'



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Ryan

[Count Bobulescu]

Thanks Spec, I’m on the road in Ireland for the next ten days dipping in and out of pubs to get WiFi. I had some Veep stuff saved that is now moot but I’ll post it anyway for record and continuity purposes. Ryan’s name had bubbled up in the last two weeks or so, He is being described as a low benefit high risk selection. He is very capable, detail oriented and crafted a highly controversial "alternative budget" to that Obama presented. He will energize Democrats to vote against Romney. Remains to be seen if he will motivate Republicans to vote for Romney. The Vice Presidential debate with Joe Biden just got a whole lot more interesting.

Poll of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-1171.htm

WASHINGTON POST/ABC-ROMNEY UNFAVORABLE TRENDING UP: "Although 40 percent of voters now say they hold a favorable opinion of the former Massachusetts governor - virtually unchanged from May - those holding negative views of him ticked higher in the new survey, from 45 percent to 49 percent... Meanwhile, President Obama remained in positive territory on that measure, with 53 percent of voters reporting favorable opinions of him. Only 43 percent say they feel unfavorably toward him...Critically, independent voters now hold their favorable views of Obama more strongly than they do of Romney. More independents view Obama favorably than unfavorably, by a margin of 53 percent to 40 percent. Their opinions of Romney were nearly reversed, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 50 percent unfavorably." Analysis by Jon Cohen and Roz Helderman: http://wapo.st/QKdP3R


RYAN PROSPECTS SPLIT GOP: As buzz about Paul Ryan builds, Jonathan Martin, Jake Sherman and Maggie Haberman report on a split emerging among Republicans about whether he would be a daring plus or a miscalculation that would turn the election into a referendum on Medicare. The story leading our site: "Ryan advocates, including some of his colleagues and high-profile conservative elites, believe Romney will lose if he doesn't make a more assertive case for his candidacy and that selecting the 42-year-old wonky golden boy would sound a clarion call to the electorate about the sort of reforms the presumptive GOP nominee wants to bring to Washington. Call them the 'go bold' crowd. Their opposites, pragmatic-minded Republican strategists and elected officials, believe that to select Ryan is to hand President Barack Obama's campaign a twin-edged blade, letting the incumbent slash Romney on the Wisconsin congressman's Medicare proposal and carve in the challenger a scarlet 'C' for the unpopular Congress. This is the cautious corner."

A PROMINENT GOP SENATOR: "He's a smart guy who will excite the base but I think the Democrats would seize on this very quickly and make the election about Medicare."

MORE - RYAN IS IN THE MIX: "Romney and his high command have kept a close hold on the vice presidential selection process, but sources familiar with the candidate's thinking say Ryan remains under consideration. The two men, both consumers of weighty tomes and papers, have bonded over policy and developed an easy professional rapport this year. Ryan told colleagues in Washington last week, before the House escaped for a month-long recess, that he hadn't spoken with top Romney aides in about a month though he had submitted paperwork for vice presidential vetting, according to a source close to the Budget chair." http://politi.co/TfLhMZ


VEEPSTAKES-CONSERVATIVE CHORUS FOR PAUL RYAN BUILDS:
WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIAL TODAY: "More than any other politician, the House Budget Chairman has defined those stakes well as a generational choice about the role of government and whether America will once again become a growth economy or sink into interest-group dominated decline. Against the advice of every Beltway bedwetter, he has put entitlement reform at the center of the public agenda-before it becomes a crisis that requires savage cuts. And he has done so as part of a larger vision that stresses tax reform for faster growth, spending restraint to prevent a Greek-like budget fate, and a Jack Kemp-like belief in opportunity for all. He represents the GOP's new generation of reformers that includes such Governors as Louisiana's Bobby Jindal and New Jersey's Chris Christie. As important, Mr. Ryan can make his case in a reasonable and unthreatening way. He doesn't get mad, or at least he doesn't show it. Like Reagan, he has a basic cheerfulness and Midwestern equanimity." http://on.wsj.com/O6kZLl

RICH LOWRY JUMPS ONBOARD: "Picking Ryan would represent a Romney revolt against conventional wisdom. And appropriately so - since the conventional wisdom is wrong," the National Review editor writes in his new column for POLITICO. "In political terms, picking Ryan is supposedly like hanging out with the No. 2 of an Al Qaeda affiliate somewhere in the badlands of the Middle East...Romney has to carry the argument to President Barack Obama. The state of the economy alone isn't enough to convince people that Romney has better ideas to create jobs. Neither is his résumé. Romney needs to make the case for his program, and perhaps no one is better suited to contribute to this effort than Ryan. Ryan is an ideologue in the best sense of the term. He is motivated by ideas and knows what he believes and why. But he's not blinkered. He is an explainer and a persuader." http://politi.co/PGOkJ



FALLOUT FROM PRIORITIES USA AD ON BOTH SIDES-
BURTON TAKES HEAT ON CNN: Here's a one-minute video of a pretty confrontational Wolf Blitzer pushing Priorities USA leader Bill Burton last night on the misleading nature of their new attack ad that suggests Romney is somehow complicit in a woman's cancer death. Burton said the ad is factually accurate: http://politi.co/O6nboX. Video: http://bit.ly/P7djer.

SAUL SAYS CANCER VICTIM WOULD HAVE HAD COVERAGE UNDER ROMNEYCARE: "To that point, if people had been in Massachusetts, under Governor Romney's health care plan, they would have had health care," Romney's press secretary Andrea Saul said on Fox News. "There are a lot of people losing their jobs and losing their health care in President Obama's economy." http://politi.co/RCHMSE

THE RIGHT FREAKS OUT-
ANN COULTER told Sean Hannity last night that Saul should lose her job: "Anyone who donates to Mitt Romney, and I mean the big donors, ought to call Mitt Romney and say if Andrea Saul isn't fired and off the campaign tomorrow, they are not giving another dime because it is not worth fighting for this man if this is the kind of spokesman he has," she said. "There is no point in us going to a convention and pushing for this man if he's employing morons like this." Fox News posts video: http://bit.ly/O6mqMq.

ERICK ERICKSON says the comment resurfaces the right's doubts about Romney. "Conservatives have put aside their distrust of Romney on this issue in the name of beating Barack Obama. They thought he and his campaign team had gotten the message and the hints. Consider the scab picked, the wound opened, and the distrust trickling out again," he wrote on RedState. "About the only thing more stupid in terms of building bridges with the right would be to say something nice about fetal stem cell research." http://bit.ly/QPfNzU

MICHAEL POTEMRA in National Review calls this a SISTER SOULJAH MOMENT for Romney: "If he sticks with Andrea Saul, publicly and vocally, it would send a message to the American people that he is not under the thumb of the punditocracy, and reassure Americans that he is his own man, and might just have the strength of character it takes to be a good president." http://bit.ly/S4cgIW

OBAMA CAMPAIGN DISTANCES ITSELF, BUT...: They featured Joe Soptic in a May conference call, in which he told the same story. http://politi.co/MkGFF6

SOME DEMS RECOIL: 'I thought the ad was wrong in terms of trying to tie a presidential candidate to a personal tragedy of a family,' said former Congressman Joe Sestak, a Democrat from Pennsylvania.
, trying to show he's still got stamina at 70 as he runs for Senate, knocks out 50 push-ups. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel posts the video: http://bit.ly/NjP1dT.
.

STEPHEN COLBERT made fun of Papa Johns for saying Obamacare will increase the price of pizza: http://bit.ly/ONvoua.

JON STEWART accused Fox News of exaggerating voter fraud: http://bit.ly/QIriH9.

MITT ROMNEY explains to BusinessWeek that 1980s photo of him and his Bain Capital colleagues holding cash. He says they were celebrating raising the money they needed: http://buswk.co/O6uKcp.

AN ORTHODOX JEWISH WEDDING PARTY chased after Romney as he arrived at a fundraiser in Lake Terrace, NJ, yesterday: http://politi.co/O6rygZ.

ANDREA SAUL, Romney's press secretary, appears in Glamour Magazine. She offers readers three pieces for succeeding at work: send thank you notes, work for someone you like, delegate when you reach capacity. http://glmr.me/P7b0bd

PANDORA, the streaming music service, is increasingly a medium of choice for campaigns to reach high-propensity voters: http://wapo.st/MBdQWh.

POTUS told the crowd in Denver yesterday that he promised Michelle he would no longer sing in public, just to her: http://politi.co/Qhpf8A.

WIKIPEDIA locked the pages of potential VP candidates after Stephen Colbert urged viewers to update them: http://politi.co/RsEL5B.

JULY was the hottest ever: http://apne.ws/QIrsOJ

"They like what I say. I'm a very popular guy, as crazy as it might sound. It's nice to be loved." - Donald Trump explains to the New York Times why it makes sense for Romney to give him a key convention speaking slot http://nyti.ms/O6foYe

VEEPSTAKES-

WHAT MITT WANTS IN A MATE: "I certainly expect to have a person that has a strength of character, a vision for the country, that, that adds something to the political discourse about the direction of the country," he told NBC's Chuck Todd yesterday. http://nbcnews.to/P9nMG8

RYAN LACKS AUTHENTIC PRIVATE SECTOR EXPERIENCE: "Flipping **burgers at McDonalds, steering the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile, slinging cheap margaritas and toning abs and pecs. That's about the extent of Rep. Paul Ryan's private sector experience," Jonathan Martin writes this morning in the story leading our site. "For all the talk about how the young vice-presidential prospect's budget blueprint would pose a political risk to Romney, there's been little mention about how his resume would so glaringly clash with the message of the GOP nominee-in-waiting . But as the Ryan-for-veep buzz grows louder - and with a decision expected any day - some of his rivals are pointing out that it may seem discordant for Romney to choose a running mate whose adult work experience comes almost completely in the worlds of government and politics...What's more Romney makes much on the stump of his not being a career politician or ever serving in Washington...Yet Ryan, 42, has spent the bulk of his career in the capital. The House Budget Chair has been in Congress since he was 28 and before that did stints as a congressional staffer and at the late Jack Kemp's think tank, Empower America." http://politi.co/RFp5h8

OBAMA TEAM QUIETLY PREPS FOR RYAN ONSLAUGHT: "Obama's Wisconsin team has taken the lead in preparing a detailed, multipronged attack if Ryan gets the nod," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Daniel Bice reports. "That's the message conveyed an internal Monday email ... from a top Wisconsin official to Obama campaign surrogates in the state." Joe Zepecki, the Wisconsin communications director for Obama for America, told the so-called Wisconsin Truth Team - made up of prominent and elected Democrats - to keep their lips zipped about Ryan for now, refraining even from discussing him on Twitter, Facebook and other social media. "But all of that will change when Romney makes his choice. 'At that time we will provide targeted research, topline messaging, recommended social feed content and further guidance,' Zepecki wrote in the email...One source close to the Obama campaign explained that the Wisconsin staff has worked for weeks with top Obama officials to prepare for the possibility that Romney will chose the Wisconsin policy wonk as his running mate. The anti-Ryan plan covers both messaging and tactics, said the source, who described it as being 'an almost a minute-by-minute plan.'" http://bit.ly/Rwpj

LIGHTER CLICKS -

STEPHEN COLBERT had Keith Ellison on his show last night to talk about Michele Bachmann: http://bit.ly/MYrNJi.

JON STEWART criticized the Priorities USA ad on his show last night: http://bit.ly/OPpcll.

JOHN SUNUNU said Obama's a "wuss" on Piers Morgan last night: http://bit.ly/QV5XN2.

JON TESTER is selling tickets to a Pearl Jam concert in Missoula to raise money for his campaign: http://lat.ms/MGStx0.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I was going to tell you whatever you wanted." - Rob Portman's note to an NBC embed sleeping in first class on his flight http://bit.ly/RwoiNP

[Count Bobulescu]

WaPo’s Wonkblog has a primer on Paul Ryan. More than you need or want to know.
Herewith, the Paul Ryan edition. It’ll take two posts to fit it all in.

For all that Paul Ryan is seen in the political media as a gamechanging pick that instantly and sharply defines the choice in this election, the truth is that most Americans don’t know much about Ryan.

“Over the last several months, roughly 43% of Americans report that they have never heard of Paul Ryan,” write John Sides and Lynn Vavreck. “In mid-July, 52% could not even make a guess as to whether Ryan was a member of the House, the Senate, was Secretary of State, or was a Governor.”
Meanwhile, though Ryan is best known for his budget and understood to be Washington’s premier deficit hawk, many of his most ardent fans in the Beltway don’t know much about his policies.

For instance: Did you know that the Ryan budget includes Obamacare’s Medicare cuts? Or that it envisions a long-term spending path for Medicare exactly identical to the path envisioned by the Obama administration? Or that it would effectively zero out Mitt Romney’s tax bill? Or that it finds its main savings not in entitlement programs, but in everything the government does that’s not an entitlement program?

So today, we’ve got a primer on Paul Ryan, his policies, and what he may or may not mean to the election. Read on for everything you need to know about the wonk from Wisconsin.

Top story: A wonk’s guide to Paul Ryan
Long-form on Ryan’s rise:

The New Yorker’s Ryan Lizza recounts Paul Ryan’s career: “Ryan's long-range plan was straightforward: to create a detailed alternative to Obama's budget and persuade his party to embrace it. He would start in 2009 and 2010 with House Republicans, the most conservative bloc in the Party. Then, in the months before the Presidential primaries, he would focus on the G.O.P. candidates. If the plan worked, by the fall of 2012 Obama's opponent would be running on Paul Ryan's ideas, and in 2013 a new Republican President would be signing them into law.”

Key takeaway from Lizza’ piece: Elevating Ryan to leader of the Republican Party wasn’t initially a strategy of the Republican Party. It was a strategy of the Obama administration. In November, we’ll know whether that was a genius play or an epic miscalculation.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2...wpisrc=nl_wonk


The Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes

on how Ryan became “the intellectual leader of the Republican Party.” “In early 2007, Ryan, who kept his seat on the House Ways and Means Committee, gave members of that panel a briefing at their regular Wednesday lunch on his plan to draft a Roadmap for America's Future. He was met with a combination of skepticism and disbelief. ‘You could just hear the crickets. People were either running for cover or they didn't understand it,’ says Representative Devin Nunes of California. Nunes was the only one of Ryan's colleagues to tell him after the meeting that he was on board and wanted to help. Ryan was relieved to have an enthusiastic supporter but wanted Nunes to understand the possible implications of his support. Nunes recalls: ‘He probably said two dozen times: Are you sure you want to do this? Do you know what you're getting into?’”

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articl...wpisrc=nl_wonk


Paul Ryan’s rise as Washington’s leading wonk is more about Ryan the politician than Ryan the policymaker, writes New York’s Jonathan Chait: “How has Ryan managed to occupy these two roles in our national life--Fiscy award-winning spokesman for those Americans demanding a bipartisan agreement to reduce the deficit, and slayer of bipartisan deficit agreements--simultaneously? Here is where, in the place of any credible programmatic commitment, he substitutes his remarkable talent for radiating good intentions…Seeming genuine is something Ryan does extraordinarily well. And here is where something deeper is at play, more than Ryan's charm and winning personality, something that gets at the intellectual bankruptcy of contemporary Washington. The Ryan brand is rooted in his ostentatious wonkery. Because, unlike the Bushes and the Palins, he grounds his position in facts and figures, he seems like an encouraging candidate to strike a bargain. But the thing to keep in mind about Ryan is that he was trained in the world of Washington Republican think tanks.”

http://nymag.com/news/features/paul-...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Ryan’s policies.

What Paul Ryan’s budget actually cuts. “Ryan's budget, recall, would raise $2.2 trillion less in tax revenue over the next decade than President Obama's budget. Ryan's plan would also spend $5.3 trillion less over that time. A big chunk of this is health care: Ryan would cut federal spending on Medicare and Medicaid for a portion of his savings. But he'd also spend $2.2 trillion less on everything else. So what, specifically, is Ryan planning to cut? (Or, alternatively, what is Obama planning to spend more on?)” Brad Plumer in The Washington Post

What Paul Ryan’s budget simply assumes. “CBO hasn't looked at whether Ryan's budget will achieve the results Ryan says it will. Rather, it looked at what will happen assuming Ryan's budget achieves the results that Ryan says it will. On the third page, CBO writes, ‘Chairman Ryan and his staff specified rules by which revenues and spending would evolve.’ They then detail what those rules were.”

Ryan’s budget would almost zero our Mitt Romney’s tax liability. “Don’t believe it? Romney himself said so, just a few months ago. The Ryan plan..’promotes saving by eliminating taxes on interest, capital gains, and dividends; also eliminates the death tax.’ Mitt Romney’s income — more than $20 million each of the past two years — comes almost entirely from capital gains on his investments, or from ‘carried interest…if the capital gains was eliminated altogether? Well, let’s let Romney explain the result in his own words, as he did at an NBC primary debate in January…’Under that plan, I'd have paid no taxes in the last two years,’ Romney said, alluding to the fact that all his income is from investments.” Alec MacGillis in The New Republic.

What Paul Ryan has proposed aside from his budget. “If you've heard of Paul Ryan, you've heard of Paul Ryan's budget. But Ryan has been in the House of Representatives for 14 years and has proposed many, many other bills. Looking through the Library of Congress's records, I counted 71 bills or amendments that Ryan has sponsored 71 bills or amendments and 971 bills that he has co-sponsored. That's a lot of legislation, and some of it is pretty interesting.” Dylan Matthews in The Washington Post.

Ryan is also a stringent social conservative. ”Though best known as an architect of conservative fiscal policy, Representative Paul D. Ryan has also been an ardent, unwavering foe of abortion rights, has tried to cut off federal money for family planning, has opposed same-sex marriage and has championed the rights of gun owners…In nearly 14 years as a Republican congressman from Wisconsin, Mr. Ryan has not only voted for legislation that would cut off federal money for Planned Parenthood and the Title X family planning program, but also backed bills to establish criminal penalties for certain doctors who perform the procedure known as partial-birth abortion. He is a co-sponsor of a bill that would define fetuses as people entitled to full legal protection, a proposal that has become the latest focus in the battles over abortion.” Robert Pear in The New York Times.

Paul Ryan isn't a deficit hawk. He's a conservative reformer. ”If you know about Paul Ryan at all, you probably know him as a deficit hawk. But Ryan has voted to increase deficits and expand government spending too many times for that to be his north star. Rather, the common thread throughout his career is his desire to remake the basic architecture of the the federal government.” Ezra Klein in The Washington Post.

The politics:

In prior House races, the Ryan plan proved a lightning rod, if not an outright liability, for Republicans. ”Congressional campaigns often serve as an early-warning mechanism to measure voters' temperature on emerging issues. With House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan's selection as Mitt Romney's running mate, it's useful to look at several closely contested House races in which Ryan's budget - and more broadly, the volatile subject of entitlement reform - became a central campaign issue.” Josh Kraushaar in National Journal.

Ten take-aways on the Ryan pick. ”Romney's original intention was to make the 2012 election a referendum on President Obama's management of the economy. Ryan makes it a choice between two competing plans for deficit reduction. This election increasingly resembles the Obama campaign's strategy rather than the Romney campaign's strategy.” Ezra Klein in The Washington Post.

Romney picked Ryan to turn around a sinking campaign. ”When is it rational to take a big risk? When the status quo isn't proceeding in a way that you feel is favorable. When you have less to lose. When you need -- pardon the cliche, but it's appropriate here -- a “game change.” When a prudent candidate like Mitt Romney picks someone like Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate, it suggests that he felt he held a losing position against President Obama.” Nate Silver in The New York Times.

Romney overruled many of his aides in picking Ryan. “Romney’s aides have stressed publicly in the 24 hours since Romney electrified conservatives with his choice that the pick was the governor’s alone. They have been less forthcoming on the flip side: That much of his staff opposed the choice for the same reason that many pundits considered it unlikely -- that Ryan’s appealingly wonky public image and a personality Romney finds copasetic will matter far less than two different budget plans whose details the campaign now effectively owns. ’Everybody was against [Ryan] to start with only Romney for,’ said one top Republican, who is skeptical of the choice and griped that Romney’s top advisors have ‘been giving Mitt everything he wanted in this campaign.’” Ben Smith in Buzzfeed.


Ryan, however, may make a Romney win more of a reach. ”Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate could deepen the intrinsic tension between the Republican policy agenda and the voters it relies on to win elections. Ryan's ambitious budget blueprint, as passed twice by House Republicans over the past two years, crystallizes the GOP's highest policy priority: shrinking the size of the federal government, largely by dramatically restructuring entitlement programs led by Medicare and Medicaid. But the GOP today is increasingly dependent on the votes of older and blue-collar whites who — while eager to scale back government programs that transfer income to the poor — are much more resistant to retrenching entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security that largely benefit the middle-class.” Ronald Brownstein in National Journal.

The pundits:

WILL: Romney’s pick of Ryan obligates him to be a truly ‘resolute’ conservative. ”When Mitt Romney decided to run with Paul Ryan, many conservatives may have thought, “Thank God, Romney is not going to run as Romney.”…For Romney, conservatism is a second language, but he speaks it with increasing frequency and fluency…Romney's selection of a running mate was, in method and outcome, presidential.” George F. Will in The Washington Post.

DIONNE: Paul Ryan is a Beltway ideologue. “If Paul Ryan were a liberal, conservatives would describe him as a creature of Washington who has spent virtually all of his professional life as a congressional aide, a staffer at an ideological think tank and, finally, as a member of Congress. In the right's shorthand: He never met a payroll. If they were in a sunny mood, these conservatives would readily concede that Ryan is a nice guy who's fun to talk to. But they'd also insist that he is an impractical ideologue. He holds an almost entirely theoretical view of the world defined by big ideas that never touch the ground and devotes little energy to considering how his proposed budgets might affect the lives of people he's never met…Liberals and conservatives have switched sides on the matter of which camp constitutes the party of theory and which is the party of practice. Americans usually reject the party of theory, which is what conservatism has now become.” EJ Dionne in The Washington Post.

PONNURU: 2012 is now a ‘choice’ election about the future of the American welfare state. ”[T]his campaign will now be about something big: the future of the welfare state…[We now have] a real and important debate: Is our welfare state basically healthy, just in need of a few tweaks to restore its fiscal health? Democrats believe, or claim to believe, that if we just raised taxes on the rich and let experts redirect Medicare spending, we could keep the open- ended entitlement programs on which we have come to rely. Republicans, on the other hand, tend to think that our entitlement programs are structurally flawed in a way that neither tax increases nor better management can solve. Republicans do not want to abolish these entitlements. Their view is that they should be limited, and made to work with rather than against markets.” Ramesh Ponnuru in Bloomberg.

WILKINSON: Actually, the Ryan pick does not create a clash of visions. ”I keep reading smart people who say that Mitt Romney's selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate will produce the titanic clash of visions that we've supposedly all been waiting for…Yet there is reason to be skeptical that Romney has just embraced a Manichean struggle…His selection of Ryan doesn't clarify that intentional muddle. A Romney plan that deliberately doesn't add up is now complemented by a Ryan plan that deliberately doesn't add up.” Francis Wilkinson in Bloomberg.

[Count Bobulescu]

RYAN WILL ATTACK ON WELFARE IN IOWA: One concern about Paul Ryan is that he's not suited for the attack dog role running mates usually play. His Midwestern demeanor is one of the reasons so many Democrats on the Hill like him, despite a conservative voting record roughly on par with Michele Bachmann's. A Romney campaign official tells Score that while in Iowa today, Ryan will hit on the welfare issue that the campaign pushed hard last week and wants to keep alive. The campaign says Ryan will "contrast" the Obama and Romney approach on welfare to work. Watch closely to see just how hard he hits. The campaign is also going up with a second ad on welfare. This one highlights a 1998 clip of Obama opposing welfare reform: http://bit.ly/Om7YAi.

HE WILL RELEASE TWO YEARS OF TAX RETURNS: Ryan told Bob Schieffer in his first joint interview with Romney yesterday that he turned over "several years" to the campaign. "I'm going to be releasing two, which is what he's releasing," he said. Watch the 15-minute video: http://cbsn.ws/O0ZFUz. Full transcript: http://cbsn.ws/NtllwB.

OBAMA CAMPAIGN VIDEO HITS ON MEDICARE: A two-minute web video aimed at getting earned media to bracket Mitt Romney's Florida bus trip is just a series of unidentified seniors in the Sunshine State worrying aloud about the "Romney-Ryan plan." One woman says, "It doesn't make any sense to cut Medicare...If we cut it not, what's going to happen to our middle class?" Another adds, "It will be a voucher plan," A third chimes in, "He's going to help the wealthiest Americans on the backs of the middle class." The campaign accuses Ryan of ducking the Florida leg of Romney's bus tour. Watch: http://bit.ly/NkvL3G
.
THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: Paul Ryan will drive several more news cycles, as both sides rush to introduce him to voters who don't know much. With that in mind, we have these questions:
(1) What will be the most damaging information to emerge about Ryan this week?
(2) Does Ryan's elevation impact Wisconsin's Republican Senate primary tomorrow?
(3) Can Ryan explain that Romney is not embracing his budget plan without sounding defensive?
(4) When will the Obama campaign start running Medicare-specific, paid ads against the Romney-Ryan ticket in Florida?
(5) Who will be the most prominent Republican to say Romney made a mistake?
THE TRAIL-
OBAMA starts a three-day Iowa bus tour. He has rallies at 11:25 in Council Bluffs and at 5:15 in Boone.
RYAN goes solo in Iowa, stumping at the state fair in Des Moines. He speaks on the soapbox at 1:30.
ROMNEY takes his "bus tour" to Florida, with an 8:45 rally in St. Augustine and a 5:15 rally in Miami.
BIDEN campaigns in North Carolina, with 12:45 rally at the Durham Armory. He's overnighting in Danville, Virginia.

COUNTDOWN: 86 days.

MONDAY MESSAGING GUIDANCE-

FROM CHICAGO: "During his first term, President Obama has already cut taxes for a typical Iowa family by about $3,600...The centerpiece of the Romney-Ryan economic proposals is a $5 trillion tax plan that independent economists have confirmed would raise taxes on middle class families with children by an average of more than $2,000 in order to pay for tax breaks for millionaires and billionaires." Reuters says the president will announce plans to help support farmers struggling from the drought having the USDA buy up to $170 million of pork, lamb, chicken and catfish: http://nyti.ms/R8by2u . The New York Times looks at how this issue is playing in Iowa: http://nyti.ms/PhDvj6.

FROM BOSTON: David Axelrod said yesterday that "Romney would pay less than one percent on his taxes" under a plan advanced by Ryan. Democrats are likely to repeat this talking point. When they do, the Romney campaign tells Score they have a very simple response: "Governor Romney has a tax plan and that is the tax plan for the Romney-Ryan ticket."

FROM THE DNC: Today the Democrats will deploy two buses - the one already in Florida will make stops in Miami Gardens, Boca Raton and Tampa. Wisconsin Congresswoman "Gwen Moore will join the tour in Florida to warn Florida seniors about the consequences of the Romney-Ryan plan to end Medicare as we know it." A second DNC bus will be deployed in Ohio tomorrow ahead of Romney's tour there on Tuesday with stops in Columbus, Zanesville and Martins Ferry. Here's a four-minute web video that wraps up local TV coverage in Virginia and North Carolina of their tour: http://bit.ly/QtMnAU.

FROM WORKER'S VOICE (the AFL-CIO Super PAC): "Up to now we have had working families outside all of Romney's events protesting his outsourcing policies at Bain. We're now going to expand that message to incorporate Ryan and the plan to end Medicare. ---> What Romney and Bain did to middle class families and companies Romney & Ryan want to do to all Americans with their plan to end Medicare," Eddie Vale emails. "We will now start the same operation at Ryan events. We're having to start this a few days earlier than we planned because they announced today Ryan NOT going to Florida events with Mitt. Talk about a giant glaring tell!!!"

FROM SHELLEY BERKLEY'S SENATE CAMPAIGN: "On Tuesday, Shelley will launch a statewide tour of Nevada to highlight the dangerous Heller-Ryan plan to essentially end Medicare. Heller voted twice for the Ryan Budget and even said he was 'proud' to be the only member of Congress who had a chance to vote on it twice." The tour stops in Pahrump, Sparks, Carson City, Fallon and Las Vegas. Here's a story on how you can expect a lot more of this: http://politi.co/OdUV0J.

DAY 2 COVERAGE OF RYAN ANNOUNCEMENT -

CATHOLICS IN PLAY: The Romney campaign was already stepping up national efforts to win over white Catholics across the Rust Belt even before they put a Catholic on the ticket, capitalizing on general unease with the economy and specific frustration with the contraception mandate. Here's my story from Dubuque, Iowa - as both Ryan and Obama campaign in the state today: "Obama won Iowa Catholics, about a quarter of the electorate, by what the exit polls showed was an 18-point margin. Yet there are signs in Dubuque, an overwhelmingly Catholic and traditionally Democratic stronghold of 58,000 on the banks of the Mississippi River, that suggest the president's support is much softer than last time...Democrats insist that Ryan's selection as Romney's running mate actually gives them an opening, particularly among liberal Catholics focused on social justice issues." Terry Branstad, Iowa's first Catholic governor, tells Score: "Republicans will win western Iowa and do well in central Iowa, so in eastern Iowa the Catholic vote is going to be key." http://politi.co/NtfjKC

PICK SHOWS A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN ROMNEY'S APPROACH: "An initial rush of favorable polling or publicity in the next few days, if it comes, won't mean much for the Republican nominee, according to strategists in both parties and veterans of previous campaigns," John Harris and Alex Burns write. "There is virtually no chance that deeply entrenched views about entitlement programs-majority opinions that at least on the surface are strongly at odds with Ryan's record-can be reversed in the 12 weeks before Election Day. Instead, whether the Ryan selection will turn out to be shrewd or self-destructive will be mostly settled over the next three weeks, in the run-up to the party conventions and in the major addresses there. It is in this critical window, many observers believe, that Romney must make the Ryan selection less about specific policy arguments and more of a general statement about his own values-about his own seriousness, self-confidence and willingness to embrace political risk to solve big problems." http://politi.co/NknNYf

NYT A1 LONG READ FOCUSES ON RYAN'S SELF-RELIANCE: A rare four byline story, with four additional credit lines, and a Janesville dateline. "Representative Paul D. Ryan's childhood home here was not overtly partisan. His parents were enthusiastic supporters of Representative Les Aspin, a Democrat, yet adored President Ronald Reagan from their glimpses of him on the evening news. But the death of his father when Mr. Ryan was only 16 punctured his life of math tests and bike riding, and in that fissure, the seeds of his worldview were planted. 'Paul went to work at McDonald's and began to pull his own weight, and becomes class president the same year,' said his brother Tobin. 'It is remarkable that he chose a path of individual responsibility and maturity rather than letting grief take a different course.' He added: 'Some of his political views did begin to coalesce around the time of my father's passing.' His self-reliance followed him..." http://nyti.ms/QWlCJG

WSJ FOCUSES ON RYAN'S TIME AT "EMPOWER AMERICA": Gerald Seib looks at the conservative group founded in 1993 by Jack Kemp, Vin Weber, Jeane Kirkpatrick and Bill Bennett. "One of their early hires was a former congressional aide named Paul Ryan. And to understand Mr. Ryan, the man just chosen to be Mitt Romney's Republican running mate, it's necessary to understand his intellectual grounding in that small organization dedicated to a few big ideas. It was the incubator in which Mr. Ryan refined his views on economics and the role of government that animate his thinking today...Sam Brownback, now the governor of Kansas but then a Republican House member who later hired Mr. Ryan, summarizes the moment more succinctly: 'It was the intellectual children of the Reagan era, first generation.' At that point, Mr. Ryan had all of one year's experience in Washington. He'd gone to work after college as a junior aide to Wisconsin Sen. Bob Kasten. Mr. Kasten also lost in that 1992 election, and Mr. Ryan needed a port in a party experiencing choppy seas." Story: http://on.wsj.com/Ty8MRK.

WAPO SAYS DONATIONS FROM CONVICTED BUSINESSMAN COULD DRAW FIRE: "Ryan accepted nearly $60,000 in contributions from businessman Dennis Troha and his family, records show. Troha was later indicted on campaign finance charges over an Indian casino he sought to open. During the casino application process, Troha said, the Republican congressman called federal regulators at his request," Jerry Markon reports. "Ryan (Wis.) also supported a bill in Congress that benefited Troha and his trucking company, legislation that drew the interest of federal prosecutors because of the contributions Ryan and other congressmen had accepted from Troha and his family. Ryan was not found to have violated any laws, nor was he a target or key figure in the federal investigation, people familiar with the inquiry said." http://wapo.st/Mrlz85

OBAMA PREVIEWS RYAN ATTACK AT CHICAGO FUNDRAISER: The president called Ryan "the ideological leader of Republicans" in Congress. "Congressman Ryan is a decent man, he is a family man, he is an articulate spokesman for Romney's vision. But it's a vision that I fundamentally disagree with." http://politi.co/R7Mjxg

JANNA RYAN tells People that her husband is low maintenance. "Paul is someone who goes with the flow," she said in an interview the magazine is teasing for their August 17 issue. They didn't release much else: http://politi.co/RMQltZ.

[Count Bobulescu]

I can identify with this first piece.

Larisa Thomason is a diehard liberal in a deep-red state, running a feisty Alabama political blog and donating thousands of dollars over the years to President Obama and other Democrats.
But two weeks ago, after opening yet another desperate fundraising e-mail from Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Thomason decided she’d had enough: She clicked “unsubscribe.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...ry.html?hpid=z


Why Mitt Romney is fighting a losing battle against Harry Reid — in 2 charts

We wrote this morning that Senate Majority Harry Reid has picked a fight with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney on the latter’s tax returns that the Nevada Democrat will almost certainly win.
Just to put a finer point on that, well, point, we went looking for the latest favorable and unfavorable ratings for both men. Then we put them into two pie charts.
Here’s Reid’s — from a January Pew pol

Notice the difference? Neither man is popular with the public — their unfavorable ratings are higher than their favorable ratings — but Romney is FAR better known nationally than Reid.
Just 16 percent of people in the July Pew poll said they didn’t have an opinion about Romney or didn’t know enough about him to form an opinion. Forty four percent — almost three times as many — didn’t know who Reid was or didn’t have an opinion about him.
And that is the essence of Romney’s problem when it comes to Reid. A near-majority of the public simply don’t know who Reid is and, therefore, trying to turn him into a figure of derision almost certainly won’t work.
That realization is likely why the Romney campaign has begun to pivot from attacking Reid into suggesting that it’s the Obama campaign that is, in fact, behind this attempt to force the Republican presidential nominee into releasing his tax returns.
The question now is whether that pivot will work.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...l?wpisrc=nl_pm

Paul Ryan's Young Guns known for activist confrontation.

When Mitt Romney tapped Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis.,for the Republican vice presidential nomination, he chose more than a man. He got a movement, reports National Journal's John Aloysius Farrell.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...0120813?page=1


Analysis: The Right Completes Its Hostile Takeover of Romney

But once the excitement surrounding Ryan subsides, the long, ideological slog of this presidential race will resume, and with greater force than before. Romney's selection of Ryan must be seen as part of a continuum of hard-line positions that the GOP candidate, under constant pressure from an often hostile right, has laid out on everything from immigration to health care to foreign policy, writes National Journal's Michael Hirsh.
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...its-hostil.php


Analysis: Ryan the Dealmaker vs. Ryan the Ideologue
The debate over what kind of Republican Ryan is -- a knuckle-dragging ideologue bent on smothering the size of the federal government, as Democrats insist, or a bipartisan dealmaker, as Romney claims -- will be one of the central fights in the broader war over defining the GOP ticket, writes National Journal's Shane Goldmacher.
http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...s-ryan-the.php

Biden Tells Audience Romney Ticket Would Put Them ‘Back in Chains’
DANVILLE, Va.--Vice President Joe Biden on Tuesday told a diverse crowd here, including many African-Americans, that presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney would “put you all back in chains" by unshackling Wall Street, reports National Journal's Rodney Hawkins.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...ains--20120814

Paul Ryan was on his soapbox — and he couldn’t get off fast enough.
The lanky lawmaker from Wisconsin made his first solo appearance as Mitt Romney’s running mate on Monday, and the Romney campaign chose to have him do it from the Iowa State Fair. This was a mistake.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...rc=nl_opinions

How will Paul Ryan change the 2012 race?
Outlook cloudy, ask again later, say polls. ”A new Washington Post-ABC News survey released Monday showed that positive views of Ryan increased by 15 percentage points after Romney named him to the ticket Saturday. But it also indicated that by Sunday, 30 percent of respondents still registered no opinion of the congressman. A new USA Today-Gallup poll found that 39 percent of Americans think Ryan is an "excellent" or "pretty good" pick for a running mate -- but 42 percent say he is a "fair" or "poor" choice.” Amy Gardner and Rosalind S. Helderman in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Ryan’s initial numbers compare poorly against past picks — comparable to Cheney, Quayle, or Palin. ”Rep. Paul Ryan starts his vice presidential campaign in not-so-great territory, with Americans rating his selection more unfavorably than any pick since at least 2000, according to a new poll…Those numbers are worse than the initial reactions to both Dick Cheney in 2000 and Sarah Palin in 2008. And they appear to be the worst since Dan Quayle in 1988 (according to a different pollster). All three Republicans wound up being very unpopular in the following years…Quayle was the only somewhat-recent vice presidential candidate to have more poll respondents rate worse than Ryan; 52 percent of likely votes in a Harris Poll rated him as a "fair" or "poor" choice.” Aaron Blake in The Washington Post.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...wpisrc=nl_wonk

SILVER: Be skeptical of the polls for a few weeks. ”I wouldn't be too eager to consume the first few polls that we'll get after Mr. Ryan's selection, however. They may be a bit unsettled, and reflect a temporary burst of excitement for Mr. Romney and Mr. Ryan that may not persist. Gallup has found, for instance, that candidates typically get about a 5-point bounce in their polls after naming their running mates. But the effect seems to fade out after a week or two.” Nate Silver in The New York Times.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...wpisrc=nl_wonk

Paul Ryan seems to take his cues on monetary policy from Ayn Rand. ”In 2005, Paul Ryan explained that he often looks to Ayn Rand's novel "Atlas Shrugged" as inspiration for his views on monetary policy. ‘I always go back to, you know, Francisco d'Anconia's speech, at Bill Taggart's wedding, on money when I think about monetary policy,’ he said in a speech to the Atlas Society. So what are Ryan's views on this front? And what do they have to do with Ayn Rand?…[Ryan] comes at monetary policy from a somewhat non-mainstream perspective. Like many other Republicans, he has repeatedly criticized Ben Bernanke's efforts to stimulate the economy. But he has also gone further, arguing that the Federal Reserve shouldn't be focused on reducing unemployment, period…Perhaps Ryan's most unconventional opinion on monetary policy came in the summer of 2010, when he told Ezra Klein that the Federal Reserve should actually raise interest rates even as the U.S. economy was still struggling” Brad Plumer in The Washington Post.

STOCKMAN: The Ryan budget is a ‘fairy tale,’ not a serious vision. ”Paul D. Ryan is the most articulate and intellectually imposing Republican of the moment, but that doesn't alter the fact that this earnest congressman from Wisconsin is preaching the same empty conservative sermon…A true agenda to reform the welfare state would require a sweeping, income-based eligibility test, which would reduce or eliminate social insurance benefits for millions of affluent retirees. Without it, there is no math that can avoid giant tax increases or vast new borrowing. Yet the supposedly courageous Ryan plan would not cut one dime over the next decade from the $1.3 trillion-per-year cost of Social Security and Medicare. Instead, it shreds the measly means-tested safety net for the vulnerable…In short, Mr. Ryan's plan is devoid of credible math or hard policy choices.” David A. Stockman in The New York Times.

BEHIND THE SCENES, FRETTING OVER RYAN. Despite all the hallelujahs from Republicans over Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, many insiders have privately expressed deep concerns about what he means for Romney’s chances, Politico reported. In interviews with three dozen operatives and strategists—nearly all of whom declined to be quoted by name—the reaction has ranged from “gnawing apprehension to hair-on-fire anger that Romney has practically ceded the election,” Politico reported. Mark McKinnon, an adviser to George W. Bush, said: “It means Romney-Ryan can run on principles and provide some real direction and vision for the Republican Party. And probably lose. Maybe big.” Read more

ROMNEY TEAM ASSAILS OBAMA’S ‘CHARACTER’ OVER CANCER AD. The Romney campaign is questioning President Obama's character in a stinging new ad, which calls out an advertisement by a pro-Obama super PAC that linked Romney to the death of a woman. In the ad released on Tuesday, a narrator asks, “What does it say about a president’s character when his campaign tries to use the tragedy of a woman’s death for political gain?” Later it asks, “Doesn’t America deserve better than a president who will say or do anything to stay in power?” Read more

OBAMA ATTACKS RYAN OVER FARM BILL. Obama opened up a new line of attack against Ryan when he told an audience in Iowa that Romney's running mate and other congressional Republicans need to drop their objections to passing a farm bill to help farmers deal with persistent drought and other problems. The reauthorization of a five-year, $500 billion bill to provide a safety net for the nation’s food producers, as well as funding for food stamps and conservation programs, has been mired in an unusually bitter election-year political fight. The Romney campaign swiftly condemned Obama's remarks on Monday, responding that Ryan hails from an agriculture state and supported disaster relief. Read more

RYAN CAMPAIGN RAKES IN CASH FROM FINANCIAL GROUPS. The addition of Ryan adds more than just buzz to the Romney ticket—he also brings dollar power. Ryan's congressional campaign committee and leadership PAC have raised a combined $8.5 million thus far this election cycle, National Journal’s Elahe Izadi writes in Influence Alley. Many of the top donors to both are major players in the financial system, including huge names like PricewaterhouseCoopers and Wells Fargo. Romney raised roughly $2 million after announcing Ryan as a running mate. Read more

FEW DETAILS FROM ROMNEY-RYAN ON BUDGET CUTS. Ryan may be well-known for his detailed plans to make deep cuts to the federal budget, but like Romney he has never explained the details of just how he'll make up for the cost of those cuts, according to Bloomberg. The pair at the top of the GOP ticket have both proposed slashing the top tax rates for corporations and individuals, but most estimates say that would require cutting billions in other tax breaks to offset the cost, a fact they acknowledge. The problem is, neither candidate has come clean about which tax provisions might be on the chopping block—details that could mean big changes in tax bills for many Americans. Read more

BIDEN: RYAN’S BUDGET HAS ALREADY COME UP SHORT. Vice President Joe Biden tried to make the case that Ryan’s record as House Budget Committee chairman is an ominous portent for how he and Romney would govern in the White House. “We’re running against, or they’re running on, what the Republican Congress has been promoting for the past four years,” he said. “And fundamentally, the American people have already rejected that Republican congressional initiative” Ryan’s plan passed the Republican-controlled House last year almost entirely along party lines, but has not moved in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Read more

[Spectabilis]

Mmmm. I think the Veep choice is already well connected with the Ryans in Irish politics.




http://i.huffpost.com/gen/734344/thumbs/s-TOM-MORELLO-PAUL-RYAN-large.jpg







http://s3.jrnl.ie/media/2012/02/Eamon-screengrab-390x285.png

[TotalMayhem]

AMC (The Walking Dead) has entered the fray with a candidate of their own.

[Andrew49]

The list is from Think Progress.

Mitt Romney: 99 Facts You Might Not Know About Him

[DCon]

May not be the real Mitt

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v4PWW301JM&feature=player_detailpage"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5v4PWW301JM&feature=player_detailpage[/ame]

[Count Bobulescu]

Romney, Obama Fates Hinge on Shrinking Sliver of Undecideds
They make up only a sliver of the electorate, roughly 4 to 7 percent. We’re talking 1 million to 2 million people at the most, in just a handful of critical states. They tend to be younger, female, and clueless about politics. They are the undecided, reports National Journal's Beth Reinhard.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...0120815?page=1

Poll: Split Verdict on Ryan as Romney's Veep Choice
President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney after the selection of Paul Ryan to join the GOP ticket, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released late Tuesday that shows voters delivering a split verdict on the Wisconsin congressman in his first days in the spotlight, reports Hotline's Steve Shepard.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//2012...hoice-20120821

DAILY KOS/SEIU FINDS NO RYAN BOUNCE: A survey conducted by Public Policy Polling finds that voters oppose the Ryan Medicare plan 45-36, with 18% unsure. When read Democratic messaging points, the opposition rises to 63-19. The poll shows no bounce for the Romney-Ryan ticket: Obama leads 49-45, with 7% undecided. When voters are asked if they believe traditional Medicare insurance for seniors should be replaced with vouchers to allow the elderly to buy private insurance if they want health care coverage, or not, their response is: 19% replace, 63% don't. Toplines: http://bit.ly/NDNpeu

OBAMA HAS $60 MILLION LESS CASH AVAILABLE THAN ROMNEY. New campaign finance numbers continue to show Obama at a financial disadvantage against Romney. According to Federal Election Commission numbers released Monday, Obama and affiliated committees had $124 million cash on hand at the end of July. Romney had $186 million, according to figures the campaign released earlier in August. Obama has also spent more than he has taken in, according to Politico, raising $49 million and spending $59 million.

Newsweek: The Whiff Factor
This latest Newsweek cover, "Obama's Gotta Go," by Niall Fergusson has received a lot of lamentation about how far a once-great magazine, Newsweek, has fallen under the overrated and apparently overwhelmed Tina Brown, who thinks nothing of handing over a formerly coveted cover to anyone with a rant in hand, writes National Journal's Michael Hirsh.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...iff-factor.php

GOOD MORNING FROM TAMPA: The RNC platform committee is taking up Constitutional issues (read: hot-buttons), government reform and health care today. The group of just over 100 met for 12 long hours yesterday to deal with planks on the economy, energy and foreign policy. My dispatch from the first day focuses on the efforts of party leaders to avoid fireworks and the flashpoints where tea partiers, Ron Paul supporters and social conservatives are clashing. The group voted yesterday to NOT include language that would protect the mortgage interested deduction, and they've REMOVED support for wind energy tax credits that was in the 2008 platform.

Two BIG issues in the GOP PLATFORM that could grab headlines here TODAY-

GAY MARRIAGE: The Republican platform will once again support the concept of "traditional marriage," defining it as between a man and a woman. BUT the draft now being considered does NOT call for the reinstatement of "don't ask, don't tell," the law repealed by President Obama. There is a new line to praise the House for fighting Obama over the Defense of Marriage Act, but there's also some new language about the value of treating everyone with respect and dignity.

ABORTION: Some things have become so enshrined in party orthodoxy that they're not fundamentally up for debate. The 2012 draft includes support for a Human Life amendment - which would give constitutional protections to the unborn - just as the past three did. "It's not a controversy anymore," Phyllis Schlafly tells me. "We've won that battle." BUT we're watching to see if the Akin blowup generates a debate about whether the party should allow abortion in the case of rape, incest and to protect the life of the mother. Romney is walking a tightrope because he needs the strong support of activists like Schlafly and Perkins, but he also must appeal to independent women if he's going to win in November. My whole story is here: http://politi.co/NdQVAK.

MESSAGING PREVIEW - WHAT'S ANIMATING THE CAMPAIGNS:

OBAMA WILL HIT HARD ON EDUCATION TODAY: During his stops in Ohio and Nevada, Chicago says "the President will highlight his record of investing in education to grow the economy. He has driven a wave of school reform - including higher academic standards in nearly every state - with a modest investment in Race to the Top and by offering states committed to reform flexibility from the most unworkable parts of No Child Left Behind. The President also has taken steps to help students afford college, from doubling Pell Grant scholarships, providing families with a $10,000 college opportunity tax credit, and incentivizing colleges to hold down costs. The Romney-Ryan budget, which slashes investments in vital education reforms and financial aid that college students depend on, is just the icing on the cake for Romney's severely out-of-touch vision on education." The campaign's education push includes a new digital calculator that highlights how much money young people could save under the president's plan. OFA plans to release state-specific reports later this morning showing "the devastating toll the Romney-Ryan plan would take on the wallets of students and families." There will be similar and it will hold events in battleground states to get earned media. http://bit.ly/QVAHHj

DNC VIDEO - "SHOP AROUND": A 45-second video accuses Romney of wanting to slash education spending and shortchange college students, featuring that famous clip of him telling a student at a town hall to "shop around" when choosing schools. Watch: http://bit.ly/PBynZd.

ROMNEY VIDEO - "ONLY IN AMERICA": A 2-minute video tells the story of Danny Vargas, who grew up on welfare but became a business executive in Herndon, Va. Watch: http://bit.ly/SgsvW9.

RNC VIDEO - "WILLING": A 50-second video juxtaposes Obama insisting yesterday that no one on his campaign has accused Romney of committing a felony against an audio clip of Stephanie Cutter saying Romney either misrepresented his time at Bain to the American people or the SEC, the latter of which she said "is a felony." Watch: http://bit.ly/NDDKo4.

POLLING-

MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY on RYAN: 31/27 fav/unfav. 42% have no opinion. http://politi.co/PBs87P

GALLUP: 29% say No Child Left Behind has made education worse. 16% say better. http://bit.ly/PayicD

WASHINGTON POST/KAISER study on INDEPENDENTS: "Nearly two-thirds of Americans who describe themselves as independents act very much like partisan Republicans or partisan Democrats," Jon Cohen and Dan Balz write on the front of today's Washington Post. "Still, one clear factor that separates them from Democrats and Republicans is a near-uniform call for greater cross-party cooperation. Seven in 10 independents say they favor compromise between the parties rather than confrontation...Just as many say they are dissatisfied with the country's political system." http://bit.ly/QkXZWw

CONVENTIONS-

DON'T BE ALARMED, BUT "HURRICANE ISAAC" COULD HIT TAMPA NEXT WEEK: "For three straight simulations, NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) model has tracked a tropical system right over the Florida peninsula through or close to Tampa just as the Republican National Convention is ramping up," the Washington Post's weather blog reports. "Assuming this system - presently a little swirl in the open Atlantic - strengthens some, it will be named Isaac. Before anyone gets alarmed or excited, consider forecasts of the path and intensity of tropical systems this far out have essentially no skill...Since 1852, the Tampa area been hit by 27 hurricanes including 6 during the month of August...Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has developed a tool that shows the historic probability of a named storm affecting the region around Tampa is 20 percent in any given season. The odds of a direct hit near Tampa is around 3 percent." http://bit.ly/PAenEw

DNC OUTLINES TAMPA BRACKETING PLANS: "The hub of activity will be coordinated out of a rapid response war room just a short walk from the Republican convention in downtown Tampa and will include leading campaign and party surrogates and middle class Americans from all walks of life who have been victimized by Romney Economics," a party official emails. "Among other top campaign surrogates, DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz will play a central role in the pushback efforts including kicking activities off in the war room this weekend. While the RNC will focus on burnishing Romney's biography as a so-called Mr. Fix It, the DNC/OFA response will be to highlight how his work in the private sector and as Governor was a disaster for the middle class...The activities will include daily press events in the war room and a host of products/advertising illustrating how out of step Mitt Romney and his policies are with seniors, students veterans and middle class families...The DNC/OFA effort will do so ... by exposing the positions of the campaign's chosen convention speakers, many of whom represent the most extreme and intolerant voices of their Party."

MONEY-

NRCC HAS AMAZING FUNDRAISING MONTH: The National Republican Congressional Committee raised $11.7 million and spent $3.7 million. They've got $48.9 million cash on hand, a $7.9 million increase. The DCCC raised $8.2 million, spent $5.3 million and has $36.2 million cash on hand, a $3 million increase. So the NRCC has expanded its cash advantage to $12.7 million, out netting the DCCC by $4.9 million. This was the best July for them since 2006. Some key facts: They have $26.8 million more cash on hand than this point in 2010 (2.2x) and $13.1 million more than what the DCCC had last cycle. A Democratic official stresses that the NRCC's top line number is so because they got $6.1 million from members - including $1 million from Boehner's re-elect and $725,000 from Boehner for Speaker. The DSCC raised $5.8 million in July and has $32.4 million cash on hand.


BURN RATES: Obama for America spent nearly $59 million last month while raising $49 million (http://politi.co/PzY5v9). Restore our Future, the pro-Romney Super PAC, spent $8.2 million last month while raising $7.5 million (http://politi.co/NDyMI7). American Crossroads raised $7.1 million and spent $9.1 million (http://politi.co/QkZyDQ). The Obama Super PAC, Priorities USA Action, spent just $3.3 million in July-with $2.6 million on paid media: http://politi.co/PzYA8v.

THIS INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A TURNOUT ELECTION - 4 GROUPS OBAMA NEEDS TO RUN UP HIS MARGINS WITH: Young people, college educated women, Hispanics and blacks. "The key to being elected is to win the groups that should be friendly to a candidate-and to pile up so large a margin among the friendliest of them that their votes can offset the inevitable losses among less-friendly groups," Gerald Seib writes in today's Wall Street Journal: http://on.wsj.com/O08DT7.

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

JUSTICE SIGNS OFF ON VIRGINIA'S VOTER ID LAW: "The Justice Department has granted preclearance to Virginia's new voter ID law, Gov. Bob McDonnell announced Monday evening," the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports. "The law, which took effect July 1, expands the list of acceptable identification at the polls, including student identification cards issued by a Virginia college or university, utility bills and concealed-handgun permits. It also changes the procedure when someone votes without presenting identification, requiring them to vote provisionally and later present an approved ID to their local registrar through email, fax, mail or hand delivery. To promote compliance and address critics who say the law is designed to suppress the vote of minorities, students and the elderly, McDonnell also has issued an executive order requiring new voter ID cards to be sent to all registered voters in the state in advance of the November elections." http://bit.ly/O17aiB


LIGHTER CLICKS

DAVID LETTERMAN'S top 10 list last night was Kevin Yoder's top 10 excuses for skinny dipping in the Sea of Galilee: http://bit.ly/Rd4y2f.

ROSCOE BARTLETT (Republican congressman from Maryland) is a survivalist: http://bit.ly/NhrIzp.

THE HILL publishes its list of the 50 wealthiest lawmakers: http://bit.ly/SMX3fF.

FRED DAVIS has lost control of his own image, the LA Times' Mark Barabak writes of the ad maker behind the proposed Jeremiah Wright ad and Pete Hoekstra's Super Bowl Asian spot: http://lat.ms/Ouc2f1.

GARY JOHNSON, the libertarian candidate for president, releases a "live free" web video promising a job boom if he wins: http://bit.ly/QkPc71.

HOMER SIMPSON stamps did not sell well. In fact, the Post Office lost $1.2 million in printing costs: http://bloom.bg/OLacUf.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'Don't be a stranger!' - Jake Tapper shouted at Obama as he left what could be his last press briefing before the election http://politi.co/NdMMgd

[Andrew49]

Texas Judge Warns Of ‘Civil War, Maybe’ If Obama Wins!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTIqMebXSUI"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTIqMebXSUI[/ame]

Texas Judge Tom Head is worried about what might happen if President Obama wins reelection in November. There could be riots, unrest or a “civil war, maybe,” he told a local television station this week. Because of that, the Lubbock County judge has decided the only way to prepare is to increase taxes to help beef up local law enforcement.

SOurce

[Count Bobulescu]

The GOP’s rightward lurch on abortion has left Romney behind. ”The decision by Republican convention delegates to oppose abortion without explicit exceptions for rape and incest poses a tricky political challenge for Mitt Romney as he prepares to accept the presidential nomination in Tampa, Fla., next week. The vote puts the Republican Party at odds with Mr. Romney, who supports rape and incest exceptions…Aides to Mr. Romney declined to say on Tuesday whether he would call on the convention delegates to reconsider their position on abortion.” Michael D. Shear in The New York Times.

Romney and Ryan are trying to tiptoe around abortion in campaign events. ”While the furor continued over Representative Todd Akin's remarks about rape, Paul D. Ryan did not mention his House colleague as he campaigned for the Republican presidential ticket here on Tuesday…In the past, Mr. Ryan also opposed a rape exception to abortion laws, although when the Romney-Ryan campaign condemned Mr. Akin in a statement on Sunday, it made clear that Mr. Ryan supported Mitt Romney's long-held view that abortions laws include a rape exception.” Trip Gabriel in The New York Times.

When Todd Akin sneezes, Paul Ryan catches a cold.

The Republicans’ soon-to-be nominee for vice president is supposed to be delivering a message about jobs and the economy, but he’s finding he cannot escape his longtime House colleague, now a national pariah for his exotic views on rape.
“His statements were outrageous, over the pale. I don’t know anybody who would agree with that. Rape is rape, period, end of story,” Ryan told Pittsburgh’s KDKA-TV in the first in a series of local TV interviews.
Except it wasn’t the end of the story. The questions were just beginning.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...rc=nl_opinions

OBAMA’S LEAD SHRINKS IN TWO SWING STATES. President Obama is ahead by 3 percentage points in Florida and 2 in Wisconsin in new Quinnipiac/New York Times/CBS polls, Hotline’s Steven Shepard reports. The Florida lead is half what it was in the same poll three weeks ago, while the Wisconsin lead is one-third what it was then. The small bumps for Romney came after he picked Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate. One place where it apparently didn’t matter: Ohio, where the poll found Obama maintaining his 6-point lead. Read more

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...onsin-20120823

TIME cover, "THE MIND OF MITT: Bain Capital taught Romney focus, restraint and the art of the deal. How would those skills work in the White House ?" by Barton Gellman: "Romney is making the sales pitch of his life. Once he asked investors to entrust him with their money; now he is taking the stage to ask Americans for the keys to the nuclear arsenal and a $15 trillion economy. ... Romney's business record displays qualities that nearly anyone would want to see in the White House. He has been a sharp judge of managerial and analytic talent, recruiting and holding the loyalties of able people in his investment firm and in the companies he bought. He could not have succeeded in management consulting or private equity without considerable skills as a strategist, salesman and negotiator. ...

"[But ]Romney guided Bain Capital through its stratospheric rise with an extraordinarily selective approach to problem solving. He and his partners did not have to concern themselves with the whole wide world of corporate transactions. Even as a multibillion-dollar company in its later years, Bain Capital needed only a few big wins to earn its high returns. Romney learned to filter out most of the files that reached his desk, directing his attention to the fraction that showed the most promise and lowest risk. To do all that well is very far from easy, but that is not the province of a Commander in Chief. Only the hardest problems head to the Oval Office, many of them with high stakes, high risks, ambiguous evidence and only imperfect outcomes. The problems come in twos and threes and tens, allowing little uninterrupted time for deep reflection. And a President can sidestep very few of them, however unattractive the odds of success."


GOP'S TWIN NIGHTMARES -- ISAAC AND AKIN:
--Tampa Bay Times splash, "Isaac churning up plenty of anxiety: The area braces for the threat to residents and convention visitors," by Marissa Lang : "Tropical Storm Isaac, looking more menacing by the hour, is expected to become a hurricane today ... If the storm does head this way, ... it would likely hit the Tampa Bay area on Monday, when more than 50,000 visitors are expected to pack the region for the Republican National Convention. ... Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn told CNN's 'Early Start'[:] ... 'Absolutely we're prepared to call it off.' News organizations nationwide pounced on the statement, and later Buckhorn said he didn't mean to suggest that the city would decide what happens with the convention. That's solely the decision of the RNC." http://bit.ly/PI9UBE

--St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kevin McDermott: "Todd Akin sent out a Twitter message Wednesday morning asserting that 'party bosses' should not 'trump the votes of the people of MO.' 'Chip in $3 if you agree,' the embattled congressman wrote. ... Akin's website on Wednesday set a fundraising goal for the day of $24,000. But even if he achieved that goal every day from now until the election, that would total only about $1.8 million - compared with the $10 million he lost from GOP sources this week, and against the millions more that McCaskill has at her disposal." http://bit.ly/NKbwbw

PUNDIT PREP - "Professors' study predicts Romney win," by Alex Byers: "Romney will win the popular vote and take the White House with more than 300 electoral votes, according to an election model that correctly determines the winner when applied to the last eight presidential elections. The model, based on state-level economic data, predicts that President Obama will lose nearly all key states ... : North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. He'd also drop Pennsylvania and Minnesota, where polls indicate Obama is ahead, the study says. The analysis, authored by Colorado political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry, looks at unemployment rates and per capita income from the last 22 years ... The study will be fully published later this month in a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association." http://politi.co/NmN7Y7

ROMNEY ROLLS OUT ENERGY PLAN: The goal is ending dependence on foreign oil by 2020. "The 21-page plan...offers few new policy proposals. Instead, it echoes familiar themes from Romney's existing energy platform and the traditional GOP agenda, including expanded offshore drilling, approval of the Keystone XL pipeline and a loosening of environmental regulations," Andrew Restuccia reports. "The plan also calls for allowing states to control energy production on federal land within their borders, speeding approval of nuclear reactors and limiting EPA legal settlements with environmental groups. Rather than 'picking winners among wind or solar companies, it says renewable energy would benefit from the same streamlined regulations as traditional energy sources." Story: http://politi.co/SXo2p9. Plan: http://mi.tt/PIrEg9.

LABOR MOBILIZING FIELD OPERATION THIS WEEKEND: The AFL-CIO and its super PAC Workers' Voice will announce today that they're moving up the traditional Labor Day kickoff to prebutt the RNC convention. As part of the new MoveOn partnership, this weekend they will canvass in 23 states and hit 640,000 doors. This cycle they will also be talking to union and non-union members. "Working families talking to their neighbors, co-workers, friends and families is kryptonite to the radical right wing agenda," AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka says in a forthcoming statement. Workers' Voice will send this convention guide mailing to an additional 240,000 seniors: http://bit.ly/PImJMe.

THE NETWORKS SNUB ANN ROMNEY: "CBS plans instead [of airing her 10:30 speech on Monday] to show a rerun of 'Hawaii Five-O,' its hit police series. Viewers of NBC will see a new episode of 'Grimm,' about a homicide detective with the supernatural ability to sense evil. And ABC plans to show 'Castle,' a series about a best-selling mystery novelist who helps solve crimes," Jeremy Peters notes in the New York Times. "The networks, which reap considerable advertising dollars even from summer reruns, have told the Romney campaign that they will broadcast an hour of convention coverage on the final three nights - but no more... 'I don't think it's the decision that Bill Paley would have made,' said Russ Schriefer, a senior Romney adviser, referring to the executive who ran CBS during the days of Edward R. Murrow and Walter Cronkite." http://nyti.ms/R2RU1E

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

FEDERAL JUDGE STRIKES DOWN NEVADA'S NONE-OF-THE-ABOVE OPTION: "A quirky Nevada law that Republicans feared could siphon votes from a disgruntled electorate and sway the outcome of close presidential and U.S. Senate races in the state was struck down Wednesday by a federal judge," the AP reports, via the Reno Gazette-Journal. "U.S. District Judge Robert Jones said the state's decades-old ballot alternative of 'none of the above' was unconstitutional because votes for "none" don't count in the final tallies that determine winners. The ruling came at the end of a lively hearing where the judge challenged both sides in the legal arguments with hypothetical questions and ramifications of possible rulings he was considering. In the end, he struck the option down altogether for both federal and statewide races and refused to grant a stay while his decision is appealed to the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals." This could be really bad news for Obama, who needs the ballot line to divert votes away from Romney. But the Democratic Secretary of State, Ross Miller, immediately promised an appeal. http://on.rgj.com/Pzpcck

LARRY SABATO MOVES WISCONSIN TO TOSS-UP: "Based on its Democratic history and the historically minor effect that running mates seem to have in their home states, we have resisted the Wisconsin change," he writes. "But we go where the data take us, and for now, that's to toss-up." http://bit.ly/O7zz3o

SWING STATE HEADLINES-

The centerpiece photo on the front page of the TOLEDO BLADE is of Joe Biden in Detroit, where he talked about the middle class. BUT the lead story in the paper is "'13 RECESSION PREDICTED BY FISCAL AGENCY'" and underneath the Biden picture is a separate story headlined "Study: Middle class has worst decade since WWII as U.S. wages decline." See it here: http://bit.ly/PIzN4c.

CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER: "Comment by Republican advisor to Ohio Gov. John Kasich sets off howls of racism." http://bit.ly/MOn28L

PHILADELPHIA CITY PAPER: "Romney shuns Corbett as guv's unpopularity continues rise." The story notes that Gov. Tom Corbett has only appeared in his state once with Romney, and that he did not attend Ryan's two events in the state this week. http://bit.ly/Pee4P0

DES MOINES REGISTER: "Romney asks Iowans to each find one person who voted for Obama last time." http://dmreg.co/PIstW9

QUAD-CITY TIMES: "Bettendorf business co-owner delivers passionate remarks." http://bit.ly/Oy8bxp

THE ROANOKE TIMES: "Ryan, at Roanoke County campaign stop, says GOP can spur 12 million jobs, 'reignite that American Dream.'" http://bit.ly/O7Ho8Z

RALEIGH NEWS AND OBSERVER: "Ryan contrasts Romney-Obama leadership." http://bit.ly/MOjx1X

TAMPA BAY TIMES: "While some Hispanics fret, GOP says outreach effort still on track in Florida despite staff change." http://bit.ly/OyhWvD

PALM BEACH POST: "Akin factor: Dems blast Hasner's support for Ryan budget as anti-woman; Hasner rips 'scare tactics.'" http://bit.ly/TWJQDw

RICHMOND TIMES-DISPATCH: "Akin creates minefield for Virginia politicians." http://bit.ly/MOl48j

LIGHTER CLICKS -

DAVID LETTERMAN presents "Top 10 signs your congressman is an idiot": http://bit.ly/O4Xa69.

MITT ROMNEY once settled into a cheap hotel in Le Havre, France. But he moved when he discovered it was in a red-light district frequented by prostitutes. It's a funny anecdote in a Bloomberg piece on Romney's time as a Mormon missionary: http://bloom.bg/NKoBkT.

MARCO RUBIO missed four calls from Romney the day before the Ryan announcement because he was on a boat with his kids. He said he told Romney that he had just bought a four-day cruise: http://bit.ly/O7rcon.

COMEDY CENTRAL posted dramatic readings of Obama fundraising emails: http://bit.ly/NKaT1u.

BUZZFEED rounds up a one-minute track of Ryan repeating the same laugh line about the Olympics being bloated until Mitt Romney got there in speech after speech: http://bit.ly/O7QhQ8.

HILLARY CLINTON is the second most powerful woman in the world, behind Angela Merkel, according to a new Forbes list: http://onforb.es/NiEKm4.

KEVIN YODER did not talk about going skinny dipping at his first public town-hall since POLITICO's story. He refused to talk with national press: http://politi.co/Nn67FD.

JOHN EDWARDS was not invited to the DNC: http://bit.ly/TWvAe7.

PAUL FAHRI studies the attributions in political ads for a story in Style: http://wapo.st/R35Pop.

THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN will now accept donations by text: http://politi.co/QtRuRh

THE VA spent taxpayer money to film a spoof of the opening scene from "Patton": http://bit.ly/NH7rJs

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Gina, I am not going to answer any of your questions." -South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley refuses to entertain inquiries from her state's largest newspaper...at a press conference http://politi.co/Q2nlxZ