US Presidential Election 2012

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html


As well as being mocked in the British media, Romney is currently also being mocked in the US media over his visit to the London Olympics. He has booked six “photo opportunities” but is giving no speeches or holding no press conferences. This feeds the claim that he is an aloof, out of touch, and secretive candidate who tries to control press access to an unusual degree.


A NASTY BATCH OF CLIPS IN BOSTON THIS MORNING-

UNHELPFUL HEADLINES BACK HOME: The Associated Press suggests papers run with "Romney goes to Europe, causes international stir" (http://apne.ws/LU6gQc). Reuters: "Romney high-profile trip abroad off to rocky start" (http://reut.rs/N1dG54). New York Times: "Romney Fund-Raisers in London Draw Banking Crowd" (http://nyti.ms/OQEvIW). Los Angeles Times: "Romney mum on foreign policy after meeting with Britain's Cameron" ( http://lat.ms/PPThnM). National Journal: "Romney Won't Publicly Discuss Foreign Policy in London" (http://bit.ly/SWZzSF). Washington Post's Suzi Parker: "Romney: Showing gold medal tone deafness in London" (http://wapo.st/N7tgv6). ABC: "Romney Practices Personal Diplomacy Over Olympics Security Comment" (http://abcn.ws/MOBjB6). NBC : "Romney compliments Olympic preparation after tizzy in British press" (http://nbcnews.to/NxY0eA). CNN: "Romney's Olympics false start" (http://bit.ly/O44Y78). Yahoo: "Romney ad with Olympic footage goes dark on YouTube" (http://yhoo.it/O0WfoT). Even the banner headline on the Drudge report is STILL "Romney questions if Brits are ready."

IT'S EVEN WORSE ABROAD. The Guardian: "Romney's Olympics blunder stuns No 10 and hands gift to Obama" (http://bit.ly/N7sA8Y). Daily Mail: "Romney forced to backtrack after questioning Britain's ability to host Olympics on his first foreign visit" (http://bit.ly/QNaU99). The Times of London: "Romney casts doubt on London 2012 preparations." Daily Telegraph: "David Cameron rejects Mitt Romney's suggestion Britain is not ready" ( http://bit.ly/OQHX6g; http://bit.ly/LRutLI) and "Romney's Olympics gaffe overshadows visit to London" (http://bit.ly/MOAIzv).

HE DISCLOSED SECRET MI6 MEETING: The Guardian says he faux-pauxed by telling reporters outside 10 Downing St. that he met with the head of the country's intelligence service. "For our American readership, this isn't like bragging you just met David Petraeus. The British take on the national secret intelligence service comes with an extra-heavy dollop of the whole secret thing." Guardian: http://bit.ly/PCqItl. Wall Street Journal: "Romney's Not-So-Secret Meeting With MI6" (http://on.wsj.com/N7txhH ). CBS: "Did Romney break cone of silence?" (http://cbsn.ws/MaQJBP).

HE PLEDGES RETURN OF CHURCHILL BUST TO OVAL OFFICE: Obama caused a stir when he sent it back to the UK in 2009. "You live here, you see the sites day in and day out, but for me as I drive past the sculpture of Winston Churchill and see that great sculpture next to Westminster Abbey and Parliament and with him larger than life, enormous heft of that sculpture suggesting the scale of the grandeur and the greatness of the man, it tugs at the heart strings to remember the kind of example that was led by Winston Churchill,' Romney told donors gathered at the Mandarin Oriental hotel. http://nbcnews.to/P5peng


Analysis: Romney Abroad: Candidate Obama Did It Better in 2008
Mitt Romney's clumsy start to his overseas trip is shaping up as a stark contrast to candidate Barack Obama's tour of the Middle East and Europe in July 2008, when he managed to strike perfect pitch at press conferences and in visits with foreign leaders, as National Journal's Caren Bohan writes.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...-candidate.php

Cook Report: Romney’s Anchor
Why isn't Mitt Romney ahead? Low personal approval seems to be preventing him from fully capitalizing on the sluggish economy as National Journal's Charlie Cook writes.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...-back-20120726


YESTERDAY'S MOST UNDERREPORTED STORY-DEBATE FORMATS ANNOUNCED: The Commission on Presidential Debates announced the formats for the three Romney-Obama meetings this fall. Of the three 90-minute sessions: October 3 (in Denver) will focus on DOMESTIC issues. October 16 (in Hampstead, N.Y.) will be a TOWN HALL format with questions from undecided voters. October 22 (in Boca Raton) will be about FOREIGN issues. The one vice presidential debate, on October 11 in Kentucky, will focus on both domestic and foreign issues.

WHY THIS MATTERS: In a shockingly static race, with few truly undecided voters, there are just not that many moments for either side to move the needle. If Romney goes boring in choosing a VP, as expected, it won't shift the dynamic of the race. The convention offers an opportunity for a bounce, but those are increasingly a relic. Thus the unscripted debates could matter even more than usual this year.

WHAT THIS MEANS: Romney would seem to have a natural edge when the focus is on domestic issues, based on polling and knowing his comfort zone during interviews. By virtue of being commander-in-chief, and looking at the polls, you'd expect Obama would have an edge on discussions of foreign matters. He killed Osama, after all. On the other hand, incumbents must defend the status quo. Think Gerald Ford saying there's no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe or George Bush defending the war in Iraq. He has kept Gitmo open, and he must defend an increasingly unpopular presence in Afghanistan. Obama might have a natural advantage when it comes to fielding questions from regular people. Based on the location, you can expect a gun question or two at the first debate. But you'll definitely get a bunch about taxes (including at least one on why Romney hasn't released more tax returns, assuming he won't). In the third debate, Romney's challenge will be to connect what's happening overseas to the weak economy - but we've seen him do it. It's hard to imagine the first debate not generating a broader discussion about the role of government, which both candidates would seem eager to want.

ROMNEY HAS PRACTICE: Both sides agree the president is a gifted orator, but he has not debated in a political setting like this since October 15, 2008. Romney debated his Republican primary opponents 19 times this cycle. Though that frustrated Boston at the time, it was valuable prep.

MODERATORS WON'T BE SELECTED UNTIL NEXT MONTH: They get to pick the questions for the first and third debates, which is one of the reasons they matter so much. Gwen Ifill has moderated the last two vice presidential debates, but Carole Simpson was the last woman to moderate a presidential debate (in 1992!). So there's understandably some pressure on the Commission from that angle. The 2008 moderators were Jim Lehrer, Tom Brokaw and Bob Schieffer. Here's the commission press release: http://politi.co/OlcSeF.

POTUS PUSHES GUN CONTROL IN NEW ORLEANS: "With the last public event of a four-day trip that started with a visit to the Aurora, Colo., hospital where almost two dozen victims were brought after the shootings, Obama said he supports measures to conduct background checks to keep guns out of the hands of criminals, fugitives and the mentally ill," Darren Samuelsohn reports. "These steps shouldn't be controversial, they should be common sense," he told the National Urban League conference. Obama's remarks in the Big Easy about guns were the most extensive of his term, going farther than what he said after the 2011 shooting in Tucson...White House aides have acknowledged new gun laws are still politically impossible in the current election-year climate, but Obama's comments suggest he's at least willing to talk about the issue. "I - like most Americans - believe that the Second Amendment guarantees an individual the right to bear arms," Obama said. "I think we recognize the traditions of gun ownership passed on from generation to generation, that hunting and shooting are part of a cherished national heritage. "But I also believe that a lot of gun owners would agree that AK-47s belong in the hands of soldiers and not in the hands of crooks. They belong on the battlefield of war, not on the streets of our cities," he added. http://politi.co/QJJ7Xj

MITT REITERATES OPPOSITION TO GUN CONTROL: "Well, this person shouldn't have had any kind of weapons and bombs and other devices and it was illegal for him to have many of those things already. But he had them,' Romney told NBC's Brian Williams. 'And so we can sometimes hope that just changing the law will make all bad things go away. It won't. Changing the heart of the American people may well be what's essential, to improve the lots of the American people.' http://nbcnews.to/SVG1hs

AP CONCLUDES ROMNEY-BAIN CONTACTS OUTLASTED EXIT: " Romney has said he had no active role in Bain Capital, the private equity firm he founded, after he exited in February 1999 to take over Salt Lake City's Winter Olympics bid. But according to Bain associates and others familiar with Romney's actions at the time, he stayed in regular contact with his partners over the following months, tending to his partnership interests and negotiating his separation from the company," Stephen Braun and Jack Gillum report. "Those familiar with Romney's discussions with his Bain partners said the contacts included several meetings in Boston, the company's home base, but were limited to matters that did not affect the firm's investments or other management decisions. Yet Romney continued to oversee his partnership stakes even as he disengaged from the firm, personally signing or approving a series of corporate and legal documents through the spring of 2001, according to financial reports reviewed by The Associated Press." http://bit.ly/ML2Zad

The limousine ride from the White House last week took five minutes, delivering President Obama to the Mandarin Oriental Hotel near L’Enfant Plaza at 5:49 p.m. Waiting for him were about two-dozen donors, who had paid a minimum of $60,000 each for a private “roundtable” that included presidential comments followed by a Q&A.
By 6:48 p.m., Obama was back at the White House, headed toward the Oval Office. The estimated haul: at least $1.5 million, to be divided among his reelection campaign, the Democratic National Committee and several state parties.

For rate of return on candidate time, that’s pretty sweet.
Money moves through Washington like blood through arteries, and never more so than during election season. For Obama, that means leveraging his advantage as the candidate whose day job is in the heart of downtown.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...=nl_pmpolitics

Fareed Zakaria in Time on Mitt Romney's foreign policy pitch Zakaria systematically takes down Mitt Romney's central arguments against President Obama's foreign policy. "Romney's principal charge against Obama is that he has angered America's allies and emboldened its enemies," Zakaria says. Surveys show that Obama remains quite popular in Great Britain, Czech Republic, and even Poland, where conservatives say he's greatly disappointed the people. Meanwhile, his approval is lower in China and the Arab world, which pretty much flips the idea that he's "emboldened" rivals and "angered" allies. "Mitt Romney is a smart man who has had much professional success. But even Republican insiders have admitted to me that he has been strangely amateurish on foreign policy," Zakaria says.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/ar...0500-1,00.html

LIGHTER CLICKS -

THE PRESIDENT wants and will get a mobile device allowing him access to his daily intelligence briefing, which lets him click on a link to get more background material: http://aol.it/QkUAh7.

FRED ARMISEN, of SNL fame, did an Obama impression in an audio interview with Willamette Week: http://bit.ly/MYWFIH.

JON STEWART attacked the GOP and Fox News for taking "You didn't build that" out of context: http://bit.ly/NL1l7p.

RICH WILLIAMSON, a Romney foreign policy advisor, referred to Russia as the Soviet Union during a Brookings panel yesterday. Video from the Obama campaign: http://bit.ly/NKRJJJ.

LAURA BUSH tells Jon Karl her husband makes an easy target as she explains why they're skipping the RNC. The fun part of this ABC interview is about President and Mrs. Bush's recent trip to Africa. Jon's package includes great video of 43 painting a women's health clinic-he is covered with paint and Laura is perfectly neat: http://yhoo.it/QkXGBB.

JON AND MARY KAYE HUNTSMAN will get an award from Equality Utah for their public support of civil unions: http://bit.ly/PLXkSb.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You told me you were not available." - Mitt Romney response when Brian Williams asked him about reports he was looking for an "incredibly boring white guy" to be his vice president http://lat.ms/P2Skne

[Holly]

Mitt Romney has recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel although the USA has its embassy in Tel Aviv.

[Count Bobulescu]

Mitt Romney has recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel although the USA has its embassy in Tel Aviv.

I'm not sure, but I imagine that is something Congress would have to approve, (power of the purse and all that), Mitt or Obama could spout on it all day, but it matters little unless Congress goes along.

[Count Bobulescu]

TOLEDO, Ohio — There are 100 days left in what, at times, has seemed like an endless presidential election. And these are the bewildered sounds of the Undecided American, trying to decide.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...y.html?hpid=z1

Eight Questions for the Last 100 days.

Q1 Will the campaign be relentlessly negative until the end.

Isn't the answer already obvious? President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney have already spent $59 million to air more than 170,000 negative ads, according to Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis Group. And that doesn't include the handiwork of the super PACs, which are spending prodigiously and whose ads will be even more negative than those by the candidates.

In the estimation of John Geer, a political scientist at Vanderbilt University who wrote a book about the value of negative ads, this campaign will be "the most negative since the advent of television." The reason: "Neither has a very solid vision about the future except, 'You don't want the other guy,'" Democratic strategist Rick Ridder said.

Not that there won't be some positive ads. The president used the Opening Ceremonies of the Olympics to air a generally positive commercial. At some point, say Republican strategists, Romney will need to define himself more positively than he's done so far.

The candidates' advisers think that, however much voters decry the negativity, they watch and can be swayed by negative ads. The more you see an ad on television, the more you can assume the candidate behind it thinks it's working to his benefit. That's why the Obama attack ad featuring Romney singing "America the Beautiful" is running constantly in swing-state markets.
What's interesting so far is that the barrage of negative ads hasn't changed the basic dynamics of the race. As the 100-day clock starts to tick down, the race is still very much within the margin of error and neither side expects that to change much.

Previous question Next question

The Questions
(Select from the questions below)

1Will the campaign be relentlessly negative to the end?

2Will Romney's choice of a vice presidential running mate make any difference?

3Which campaign is likely to have the advantage in money?

4Does Romney's wealth and business record make him more or less electable?

5Which groups of voters do the two campaigns care most about?

6Is the president hostage to the economic news between now and November?

7How important are the debates likely to be this year?

8With the conventions back-to-back, will either candidate get any real bounce in the polls?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...ays/question1/

ROMNEY TALKERS-
NEWSWEEK COVER-"THE WIMP FACTOR: IS HE JUST TOO INSECURE TO BE PRESIDENT?" Michael Tomasky writes that last week's London faux paux highlights what's really wrong with Romney. "He's kind of lame, and he's really ... annoying. He keeps saying these ... things, these incredibly off-key things. Then he apologizes immediately-with all the sincerity of a hostage. Or maybe he doesn't: sometimes he whines about the subsequent attacks on him. But the one thing he never does? Man up, double down, take his lumps. In 1987, this magazine created a famous hubbub by labeling George H.W. Bush a 'wimp' on its cover. 'The Wimp Factor.' Huge stir. And not entirely fair-the guy had been an aviator in the war, the big war, the good war, and he was even shot down out over the Pacific, cockpit drenched in smoke and fumes, at an age (20) when in most states he couldn't even legally drink a beer. In hindsight, Poppy looks like Dirty Harry Callahan compared with Romney , who spent his war (Vietnam) in-ready?-Paris. Where he learned ... French. Up to his eyeballs in deferments. Where Reagan saddled up a horse with the masculine name of El Alamein, Mitt saddles up something called Rafalca-except that he doesn't even really do that, his wife does (dressage). And speaking of Ann-did you notice that she was the one driving the Jet Ski on their recent vacation, while Mitt rode on the back, hanging on, as Paul Begala put it to me last week, 'like a helpless papoose'?" See the cover art: http://bit.ly/OwUJJ5. Read the story: http://bit.ly/OsQKk2.

ROMNEY RESPONDS: "If I worried about what the media said I wouldn't get much sleep, and I've been able to sleep pretty well" he said yesterday on CBS. "They tried that on George Herbert Walker Bush. He was a pretty great president and anything but.' http://politi.co/NDc0nv

HE CAN'T REMEMBER IF HE PAID LESS THAN 13.9% IN TAXES: ABC's David Muir asked Romney if there has ever been a year when he paid less than 13.9 percent, the rate he paid in 2010. "I haven't calculated that," he said. "I'm happy to go back and look, but my view is I've paid all the taxes required by law...From time to time I've been audited as it happens, I think, to other citizens as well, and the accounting firm which prepares my taxes has done a very thorough and complete job pay taxes as legally due. I don't pay more than are legally due." http://abcn.ws/MfjsFx

IN 1994, ROMNEY OPPOSED GOP PLANS TO CUT THE CAPITAL GAINS TAX. David Brody posts the tape from his failed Senate campaign: http://bit.ly/LYkiVD.

OBAMA TALKERS-
BILL CLINTON WILL GET KEY ROLE AT DNC: Jeff Zeleny reports that the 42nd president will formally place Obama's name into nomination by delivering a prime-time speech designed to present a forceful economic argument for why Mr. Obama deserves to win a second term. "There isn't anybody on the planet who has a greater perspective on not just the last four years, but the last two decades, than Bill Clinton," David Axelrod, a top strategist to the Obama campaign, told him Sunday. "He can really articulate the choice that is before people." What this means: "The decision to give Mr. Clinton a marquee speech on Sept. 5 at the convention means that [Joe Biden] will not speak until the final night, aides said, when he and Mr. Obama will appear together outdoors at Bank of America Stadium. The vice president will introduce Mr. Obama before they accept the party's nomination for a second term in the White House." http://nyti.ms/OcanvA

FLASHBACK: One of the worst speeches of Clinton's career came when he formally placed Michael Dukakis' name in nomination during the 1988 DNC. The crowd cheered when he said "in conclusion." Here's a 75-second clip via C-SPAN: http://cs.pn/OBYsGW.

POTUS LIKELY DESCENDS FROM A SLAVE (BUT ON HIS MOTHER'S SIDE!): A team of genealogists will announce today that "Obama's mother had, in addition to her European ancestors, at least one African forebear and that the president is most likely descended from one of the first documented African slaves in the United States," Sheryl Gay Stolberg writes on A9 of today's New York Times. "The findings are scheduled to be announced on Monday by Ancestry.com, a genealogy company based in Provo, Utah. Its team, while lacking definitive proof, said it had evidence that 'strongly suggests' Mr. Obama's family tree - on his mother's side - stretches back nearly four centuries to a slave in colonial Virginia named John Punch. In 1640, Mr. Punch, then an indentured servant, escaped from Virginia and went to Maryland. He was captured there and, along with two white servants who had also escaped, was put on trial. His punishment - servitude for life - was harsher than what the white servants received, and it has led some historians to regard him as the first African to be legally sanctioned as a slave, years before Virginia adopted laws allowing slavery." http://nyti.ms/OsXLBi

VEEPSTAKES-
PAUL RYAN GETS THE NEW YORKER TREATMENT: Ryan Lizza's profile of the Wisconsin congressman posted overnight. Here's the basic frame: "Ryan's father, grandfather, and great-grandfather all died before their sixtieth birthdays, so Ryan, who is now forty-two, could be forgiven if he seemed like a man in a hurry... To envisage what Republicans would do if they win in November, the person to understand is not necessarily Romney, who has been a policy cipher all his public life. The person to understand is Paul Ryan...As in 2009, Republicans are divided between those who think they can win by pointing out Obama's failures and those who want to run on a Ryan-like set of ideas. Romney seems to want to be in the first camp, but during the primaries he championed the ideas in Ryan's budget. Ryan is frequently talked about as a future leader of the House Republicans and even as a long shot to be Romney's running mate. He surely would take either job, but he seems better suited to continuing what he's been doing since 2008: remaking the Republican Party in his image. You can't 'run on vague platitudes and generalities,' he told me earlier this month. He was speaking about Bush in 2004 and Obama four years ago. But he clearly believes that the same holds true for Romney in November. 'He's already endorsed these things,' Ryan said. 'I want a full-throated defense for an alternative agenda that fixes the country's problems. I want to show the country that we have a solution to get us out of the ditch we're in, and to be proud about it.' Ryan seemed unconcerned that pushing his policy agenda on Romney might damage the candidate." http://nyr.kr/N6Aq3A

LIGHTER CLICKS -

CONAN takes out of context clips from recent Obama and Biden speeches to suggest possible new campaign slogans. He's making fun of "Forward." My favorite is Biden saying, "Come on, I'm serious." 90 seconds: http://bit.ly/Ot72t9
.
ALY RAISMAN'S PARENTS reacted hilariously as they watch their daughter do the bar routine. NBC had them mic'd: http://gaw.kr/Ox2r5G.

JIMMY KIMMEL tells Parade that he "almost threw up" before his monologue at the White House correspondent's dinner: http://bit.ly/Qr4Fci.

NEWT GINGRICH writes an extended defense of Michele Bachmann: http://politi.co/Pf5j5n.

JOE WALSH, the Illinois congressman, plagiarized a bill that Tim Bishop (D-N.Y.) introduced in 2010: http://politi.co/LYm3SU.

THE CHURCHILL BUST that Romney has promised to return to the White House is actually still there, just moved to the residence: http://politi.co/MVnctX.

SMALL BUSINESSES often get left holding the bag when losing campaigns take their time repaying debts: http://politi.co/N6q3Na.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'I came to get a shwarma sandwich, what do you mean?' - Sheldon Adelson, asked why he flew in for Romney's Jerusalem fundraiser http://politi.co/PeV0OV

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

ROMNEY SPOKESMAN TO REPORTERS: ‘SHOVE IT.’ As Mitt Romney was leaving a stop at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Poland, reporters shouted questions to the presumptive nominee, who ignored them. After several questions involving Romney’s missteps on the trip, including comments he made in Israel, Romney spokesman Rick Gorka shot back, telling a reporter to “kiss my ass.” Just a few moments later, Gorka told another reporter to “shove it.” Gorka later apologized to reporters for the altercation. Read more

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney later today wraps up his foreign tour, a trip that drew a series of negative headlines and has left many Republicans wondering what exactly the GOP presidential nominee was hoping to accomplish.
The assessments of the trip, which saw Romney visit London, Israel and Poland over the past week, ranged from scathing to resigned among the Republican professional political class.

“I find this entire trip borderline lunacy,” said one senior Republican strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Why on earth is he seeking to improve his foreign policy cred when there will not be a single vote cast on that subject?”
Ed Rogers, a longtime Republican operative, was more measured, but acknowledged that the trip was something short of a unqualified success.
“Romney abroad is the same as Romney at home,” said Rogers. “His performance is uneven at times, but overall, pretty good.” Added Rogers: “Let’s face it, Romney can’t win, but Obama can lose.”

Another veteran Republican political consultant reached for a golf metaphor when asked to explain Romney’s performance in Europe — and whether it will hurt his campaign domestically.
“He’s like the guy who is a competent-but-not-gifted athlete who learns to play golf,” said the GOP source. “He works really hard at it, and most of the time he’s perfectly competent, if not stellar. But once each round he is going to shank one and break a window on a house lining the golf course.”

ROMNEY TALKERS-
JUST DELIVERED- ROMNEY HEAPS PRAISE ON JOHN PAUL II IN WARSAW: "Saying that John Paul 'has a unique and a special place in our hearts,' Romney recalled the famous 1979 mass here while Poland was still under Soviet control," per Jonathan Martin. "He reminded the world there would be no justice in Europe without an independent Poland, and he reminded the Polish people, long deprived of their independence, from where they drew their strength,' Romney told a few hundred Poles at a university library. 'While greeting a crowd huddled along a fence, he met a little girl. He paused and asked her, 'Where is Poland?' But the girl - caught off guard - couldn't answer. She laughed nervously until the great pope put his hand over her heart and said: 'Poland is here.'" The Cold War pope, Romney continued, 'understood that a nation is not a flag or a plot of land. It is a people - a community of values. And the highest value Poland honors - to the world's great fortune - is man's innate desire to be free.'

LECH WALESA ENDORSED HIM YESTERDAY: "I wish you to be successful because this success is needed to the United States, of course, but to Europe and the rest of the world, too," Walesa said through a translator. Jonathan Martin: "Then, with a bang of his fist on a wooden table, the Nobel Prize winner urged the Republican to claim victory: 'Gov. Romney, get your success - be successful!' Along with a pair of made-for-camera visits to Gdansk's two civic shrines - a monument that marks where the first shots of World War II were fired and another in honor of Walesa's legendary labor movement - it was all Romney's high command could have wanted." http://politi.co/Pje66L

SOLIDARITY DISTANCES ITSELF: 'Regretfully, we were informed by our friends from the American headquarters of AFL-CIO, which represents more than 12 million employees ... that Mitt Romney supported attacks on trade unions and employees' rights,' the trade union movement which led the Polish struggle against communist rule said in a statement. 'Solidarity was not involved in organizing Romney's meeting with Walesa and did not invite him to visit Poland.' http://reut.rs/OgPX4E

TRIP COULD HELP IN THE RUST BELT: "The two states with the largest number of Polish-Americans are out of reach for Mr. Romney: New York and Illinois...BUT millions of Polish-Americans call Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin home," the New York Times' Mike Shear notes. "Polish-Americans do not vote in a block. A survey by the Piast Institute, which studies Polish-American affairs, found that 36 percent of Polish-Americans identified as Democrats. Thirty-three percent said they were independents. And just 26 percent said they were Republicans." According to the institute, Obama won the Polish vote 52-42 in 2008. http://nyti.ms/PhD46H

The Hill: Anxious Obama plans fall fundraising spree
By Amie Parnes and Justin Sink

President Obama will host a series of high-dollar fundraisers in the coming weeks and is expected to add more events than usual after the Democratic National Convention.

CONGRESS MOVES AHEAD WITH NEW IRAN SANCTIONS. House and Senate negotiators came to an agreement late Monday night to move ahead with new sanctions that will try to cripple the Iranian economy and undercut its nuclear program, the Associated Press reported. The sanctions expand penalties on financial institutions that work with Iran’s central bank, while also hitting those who mine uranium with Iran and provide oil tankers to Iran. Lawmakers hope to vote on the legislation next week, before the August recess. Read more

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...ryId=157631973

PARTY LOOKS TO JOIN OBAMA IN BACKING GAY MARRIAGE. Almost three months after President Obama publicly voiced his support for same-sex marriage, his personal evolution looks to become part of the Democratic Party platform. Initial reports out of platform committee meetings reveal that the Democrats will officially endorse same-sex marriage in the party’s 2012 platform, a plan that’s backed by convention chairman Antonio Villaraigosa. The final party platform will be presented to delegates at the party convention in September.

COLUMN DU JOUR - DAVID BROOKS, "Dullest Campaign Ever":

"First, intellectual stagnation. ... [O]ur big government/small government debate is back where it was a generation ago. ...

Second, lack of any hint of intellectual innovation. Candidates used to start their campaigns by giving serious policy addresses at universities and think tanks to lay out their distinct philosophies. Bill Clinton was a New Democrat. George W. Bush was a Compassionate Conservative. But [now c]andidates know that they'd be punished for saying something unexpected ...

Third, increased focus on the uninformed. Four years ago, Barack Obama gave a sophisticated major speech on race. Mitt Romney did one on religion. This year, the ... prevailing view is that anybody who would pay attention to such a speech is already committed to a candidate. ...

Fourth, lack of serious policy proposals. Has there ever been a campaign with so few major plans on the table? President Obama's proposals are ... retreads, while Mitt Romney has run the closest thing to a policy-free race as any candidate in my lifetime. ...

"Fifth, negative passion. Both parties are driven more by hatred than by love. ... Many Democratic politicians think Obama looks down on them as a bunch of lowlife hacks. ... The Republican coolness toward Romney is such that he's having trouble recruiting people to work on the campaign.

Sixth, no enactment strategy. ... [T]he next president will have to rally bipartisan majorities around a budget deal and many other things. That will require personal and relationship skills neither has demonstrated. .
..
"Seventh, ad budget myopia. Both campaigns ... believe that if they can carpet bomb swing voters with enough negative ads, then eventually the sheer weight of the barrage will produce movement in their direction. There's little evidence that these prejudices are true. But the campaigns are like World War I generals. If something isn't working, the answer must be to try more of it.

Eighth, technology is making campaigns dumber. ... [C]ampaigns can respond to their opponents minute by minute ... The campaigns get lost in tit-for-tat minutiae ...
Finally, dishonesty numbs ... It's impossible to take ads seriously." http://nyti.ms/MPvsO0


The New York Times: Partisan rifts hinder efforts to improve US voting system
By Ethan Bronner

Twelve years after a too-close-to-call presidential contest imploded in a hail of Florida punch card ballots and a bitter 5-to-4 Supreme Court ruling for George W. Bush, the country’s voting systems remain as deeply flawed as ever with any prospect of fixing them mired in increasing levels of partisanship.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/01/us...1&ref=politics

LIGHTER CLICKS -

THE PRESIDENT has privately made fun of his own campaign slogan. 'Forward! Period. Full stop," he joked to aides, according to an A-hed on the front page of today's Wall Street Journal. 'It's like 'forward, now stop,' ' said Austan Goolsbee, the former chairman of the National Economic Council who still advises the Obama campaign. He added, 'It could be worse. It could be 'Forward' comma,' which would make it raise the question: 'and now what?' http://on.wsj.com/QU9PZ5

RNC ORGANIZERS released a time-lapse video of arena preparations at the Tampa Bay Times Forum. Watch two weeks of work in two-and-a-half minutes: http://bit.ly/M0itaV.

JON STEWART mocked Romney for bungling his London visit: http://bit.ly/NFTCu3.

RICK GORKA, Romney's traveling press secretary, apologized today after telling reporters in Poland to "shove it": http://politi.co/M0RXy0. CNN captured it on video: http://bit.ly/Ozi6BJ.

RESTORE OUR FUTURE, the pro-Romney Super PAC, is going on TV with a spot that features 2002 Olympians praising Mitt for turning around the Salt Lake games. The star is figure skater Kristi Yamahuchi. Watch: http://bit.ly/N6RRky.

RON PAUL supporters appeared in Poland yesterday during Romney's visit: http://bit.ly/Mw7RgK.

TIM PAWLENTY, wearing an un-tucked casual shirt over jeans in Ohio yesterday (so un-Romney), said his favorite beers are Minnesota-brewed Grain Belt Nordeast and Summit Extra Pale Ale: http://nbcnews.to/PiZWCL.

AMY GARDNER writes in The Washington Post about all the food reporters eat: http://wapo.st/M82O4z.

SPOILED RICH KIDS post obnoxious photos of themselves on Instagram. Someone has created a Tumblr with a collection of them: http://bit.ly/PhICgY.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "When people start saying how terrible it is, I just have to remind them - take a look at what Jefferson and Adams had to say. Democracy's always been pretty rough and pretty messy." - President Obama expresses confidence he'll win and dismisses concerns about going negative at a New York fundraiser last night http://politi.co/MgHCPS

[Kev Bar]

Mark LeVine saying the unheralded obvious well:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...239822207.html

[Count Bobulescu]

Mark LeVine saying the unheralded obvious well:

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opi...239822207.html

Thanks Kev, Thought LeVine had Romney’s number alright but was a little harsh or naive about Obama’s remarks to AIPAC. That conference is held in DC every year and the attendance seems to me to be dominated by the hardline orthodox sects that come down from NY by the busload. That’s the only time of year we see them. When speaking to them, there is no percentage in going all wobbly. The NY Hasidic jews do vote, but their vote alone, unlike the broader Jewish vote, is not significant in the overall NY vote.

Not that it matters for election purposes but Obama’s popularity in Israel is on the floor, has been from day one, and now there is carping that he has not visited Israel. His surrogates say he viewed it as more important to try to repair relations with the Islamic world, than consolidate with the Israelis.

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

--N.Y. Times col. 1, "NEW POLLS SHOW OBAMA HAS EDGE IN 3 LARGE STATES - CRUCIAL BATTLEGROUNDS," by Jeff Zeleny and Dalia Sussman: "[H]is empathy and personal appeal give him an edge over Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News polls. ... While independent voters break strongly for Mr. Obama in Pennsylvania, a state that Mr. Romney has been trying to make more competitive, they are closely split in Florida and Ohio. ...

"The New York Times, in collaboration with Quinnipiac and CBS News, is tracking the presidential contest in six states through polls over the next three months. In addition to Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, which have a combined 67 electoral votes, surveys will be taken in Colorado, Wisconsin and Virginia, which have 32 electoral votes. Four years ago, Mr. Obama won all six states. ... In all three states, most women say they prefer Mr. Obama. ... The economy is the top concern in all three states. ... A sliver of voters, 4 percent in each state, say they are undecided between Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney." http://nyti.ms/OmGwhk


VEEP TOUR? CNN's Peter Hamby : "Romney's presidential campaign is quietly laying the groundwork for a high-profile blitz of several key battleground states in the run-up to the Republican National Convention in Tampa ... Romney will spend the coming days maintaining the kind of schedule he has kept for much of the summer, with appearances and fundraisers in medium-sized cities in various swing states. Romney will visit Colorado, Nevada and Indiana this week, and make stops in Ohio next week. But beginning August 10th, Romney will ramp up his campaign operation with a splashy four-day bus tour targeting the largest media markets in several of the states that will decide the November election ... And in a show of force and party unity, Romney will be joined at each stop by prominent Republican officials ...

"[O]n August 11th , Romney will hit three of Virginia's biggest population hubs - the Washington, D.C. metro area, Richmond and Norfolk - before heading down to North Carolina the following day. On Aug. 13, the Monday after the Olympic Summer Games finish in London, Romney will arrive in Florida for campaign stops in Jacksonville, Orlando and Miami. Romney aides are also scouting multiple campaign venues in Ohio for later that week ... 'Sounds like V.P. week,' said one Republican familiar with the schedule ... A Romney campaign official confirmed that a bus tour is being organized before convention week, but said the theme of the tour would be Romney's vision for the economy." http://bit.ly/OC1pc5

ROMNEY TALKERS-

STUDY-MITT TAX PLAN DISPROPORTIONATELY BENEFITS THE RICH: The top five percent would get cuts, and everyone else would see bigger bills. That's the finding of a Brookings study out today, being hyped by the Washington Post - which says the researchers "seem to bend over backward to be fair" to the Republicans. "His rate-cutting plan for individuals would reduce tax collections by about $360 billion in 2015, the study says," per Lori Montgomery. "To avoid increasing deficits - as Romney has pledged - the plan would have to generate an equivalent amount of revenue by slashing tax breaks for mortgage interest, employer-provided health care, education, medical expenses, state and local taxes, and child care - all breaks that benefit the middle class." http://wapo.st/MRmAr5

FIRST BIO SPOT OF THE CYCLE: If you missed it yesterday, the campaigned rolled out a 60-second ad that touts Romney's turnaround of the Olympic and his four years as governor. Watch: http://bit.ly/NSag6W.

FOREIGN TRIP WRAP-

HITS AND MISSES: Jonathan Martin writes a textured after-action report that says the trip was neither a triumph nor a debacle. He appealed to Jewish voters/donors in Florida, improved his standing with Polish voters and raised $3 million. But he also came across as bumbling at times and missed an opportunity to highlight his turnaround of the Olympics. JMart: http://bit.ly/R7zq5g.

Dylan Byers on the tension yesterday's Rick Gorka outburst exposed between the campaign and its traveling press corps (something that made the nightly news, but I'm not at all convinced anyone besides the people involved care about): http://politi.co/MYLNhu.

MONEY-2012 WILL BE MOST EXPENSIVE ELECTION EVER: The Center for Responsive Politics predicts, "based on data from 18 months of fundraising and spending, that the elections will cost $5.8 billion, an increase of 7 percent from the 2008 cost of $5.4 billion. But outside spending, which is soaring while presidential candidate spending declines, is a wild card that makes predictions tricky. So far overall in the first 18 months of the 2012 cycle, $2.2 billion has been spent, compared with $2.4 billion in 2008. The presidential race by itself will cost about $2.5 billion, the Center predicts, in funds laid out by the candidates, Democratic and Republican party committees and outside spending groups. The candidates have raised about $608 million, compared with more than $1.1 billion at this point in the 2008 cycle." http://bit.ly/T4m9sA

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-THE PATH TO 270:

LARRY SABATO is updating his electoral map today to make New Mexico "likely Democrat" while moving Indiana and Missouri to "likely Republican."

"Because there has been so little movement in the national polls since Romney effectively clinched the presidential nomination, we also haven't seen much reason to make any major changes to our Electoral College map since then," the University of Virginia political scientist writes with Kyle Kondik. "Our only changes in this update do not alter our longstanding Electoral College projection: 247 for President Obama, 206 for Romney with 85 toss-ups. Rather, they simply solidify some states for either side." See his map: http://bit.ly/NKY36

'Make the S.O.B. Deny It'

The late gonzo journalist, Hunter S. Thompson, added to American political lore when making a point about unscrupulous politicians in his campaign chronicle, Fear and Loathing: On the Campaign Trail, '72.

As a young man running for office in Texas, Thompson wrote, Lyndon Johnson needed to slow down a foe's momentum. And so LBJ ordered an aide to spread the rumor that their opponent was "enjoying carnal knowledge of his own barnyard sows."

The aide blanched, and objected. No one would believe a claim like that!

"I know," Johnson was said to have replied, "but let's make the sonofabitch deny it."

It was, said Thompson, "one of the oldest and most effective tricks in the business. Every hack in the business has used it in time of trouble."

Now Harry Reid has joined the list. The Senate Majority Leader continues to allege - in remarks today on the Senate floor - that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney paid no income taxes for a span of 10 years.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...alist-hunt.php


THE MAP - "Obama's problems in the South ... the lingering Mason-Dixon political divide," by Jonathan Martin: "Ever since his national debut at the 2004 Democratic convention, Barack Obama's calling card has been that he practices consensus-oriented politics that transcend traditional divisions. But four years after his historic presidential election, the country he sought to bring together is even more divided than when he launched his candidacy. And no place is more polarized than the South. Any hope that the nation's first black president would usher in a period of reconciliation in the old Confederacy has crashed on the rocks of a harsh reality: African-Americans overwhelmingly support him and whites make up much of the opposition. Far from being a transformational figure in the South, Obama has instead reinforced the region's oldest and sturdiest divide. ...

"The South ... is ... at once the heart of the Obama resistance
but also a region that is crucial to his reelection hopes. If he loses Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, it's a virtual certainty that he'll be a one-term president. Look for no further explanation as to why the Democratic convention is being held in Charlotte, the prototypical New South city ...

"So for political purposes, there are effectively two Souths now.
There's Virginia, North Carolina and Florida, which have become pivotal in presidential races, and there's the Deep South, which is ignored by both White House candidates. ... Democrats in the Deep South are in danger of now becoming the black party and Republicans effectively the white party. That has both Democrats and Republicans worried. ... Hopeful Obama strategists once mused about competing in Georgia this year, but such talk has long since ended." http://politi.co/MgSx6o


MEGA BUY - OBAMA BOOKS $77 MILLION IN ADDITIONAL AD TIME: It starts Friday and runs through the election, a Republican ad buying source tells CNN's Kevin Bohn. "The new buy is for thirty second broadcast TV spots that will run in eight battleground states. Through Thursday Team Obama will have spent at least $106 million in general election ads - more than twice what the Mitt Romney campaign has bought. This buy will bring his total media purchase so far this cycle to almost $190 million." http://bit.ly/M87hcf

PEGGY NOONAN WARNS GOP THAT CLINTON COULD NAIL HIS CONVENTION SPEECH: " The central fact of the Obama campaign is that they have not yet made a case for re-election," she writes in her column for Saturday's Wall Street Journal. "They haven't come up with a reasoned argument in common words that can be repeated by normal people. Ask an Obama supporter to boil it all down and he'll flail around and then say: 'But Romney is awful' or 'The Republicans are bad.' The White House and the campaign have not be able to make a case for their guy. They're just trying to make a case against the other guy. But Mr. Clinton might actually be able to make the case, and he just may do it by making a case for the Democratic Party...He can ring. He can walk you back to FDR and JFK and Bobby, he can remind you why the party exists, what it's done, what it has always meant to do. Because he's doing a favor, and because he's now a wise man of the party, he could be more or less candid about the Democrats' recent struggles and acknowledge a few things that haven't fully worked." http://on.wsj.com/NPtDQZ


LIGHTER CLICKS -

JON STEWART mocks Romney's gaffes: http://bit.ly/OIW15J.

STEPHEN COLBERT knocked Charles Krauthammer: http://bit.ly/MYPzY6.

DAN PFEIFFER, the White House Communications Director, has officially apologized to Charles Krauthammer for inaccurately criticizing his column on the Churchill bust: http://politi.co/MRay0R.

LOWELL TURPIN allegedly assaulted his live-in girlfriend when he saw a Facebook photo of her with Mitt Romney and suspected she was planning to have an affair. Tragically, the victim tells police he's been violent before: http://bit.ly/OCsDPT.

A MASTER'S CANDIDATE AT OXFORD looks at the peculiar explosion of Romney's Twitter followers: http://bit.ly/QdqeuC.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He didn't pay taxes for 10 years! Now, do I know that that's true? Well, I'm not certain..." - Harry Reid unabashedly makes an unsubstantiated claim about Mitt Romney http://huff.to/MR9lqn


JON STEWART called out Harry Reid on his show last night for saying Romney embarrasses his father by not releasing his taxes (lots of people think it crossed a line): http://bit.ly/RdGg4P.

ISAAC ANTHONY, 6, offers 10 reasons not to vote for Obama in this viral YouTube video: http://usat.ly/MSKgvp.

MARCO RUBIO does not want Olympians to pay taxes on their medals: http://apne.ws/M5EUvj.

DAN SENOR, Romney's 40-year-old foreign policy adviser, gets profiled on A10 of today's New York Times: http://nyti.ms/T4lvva.

TWITTER unveils a political index to track sentiments about the candidates: http://lat.ms/MAwYPD.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: 'You are psychic." - President Obama responds to a 19-year-old college student who told him she had a dream he would stop at the fudge shop where she works in Mansfield, Ohio. He made an unannounced stop there yesterday. Video: http://politi.co/Po6lwa.


ROB PORTMAN sent a bottle of beer to a county commissioner who told the Cincinnati Enquirer that "Rob Portman has had one beer in more places than any man in America." http://cin.ci/N7srVC

JON STEWART mocked mayors for trying to ban Chick-fil-A on his show last night when they have much bigger problems to deal with: http://bit.ly/QIrrtA.

RICKY SCHRODER, the child star in the 1980's sitcom "Silver Spoons," will reportedly appear at Romney's fundraiser in Evansville, Indiana, tomorrow. Americans United for Change, a liberal group, has made a one-minute web video that juxtaposes clips of his precocious young character on the show against Romney saying he's "not concerned" with the very poor: http://bit.ly/NX4elw.

MARY MATALIN and JAMES CARVILLE have recorded a series of videos promoting Maker's Mark bourbon. Here are two: http://nyti.ms/NP0SDV.

ROSEANNE BARR, the comedian who failed in her quest to win the Green Party's nomination for president, will now run on the Peace and Freedom Party ticket. Her running mate will be Cindy Sheehan: http://lat.ms/MgZDYm.

ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER'S new title is "Governor Downey Professor of State and Global Policy at the University of Southern California's Schwarzenegger Institute." He's committed $20 million to his namesake think tank at USC. http://wapo.st/OvBodx

JOHN CONYERS, the Michigan Democrat, delivered his opening remarks in Spanish at a hearing on making English the nation's official language: http://fxn.ws/N32okq.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Ugh." - Stefanie Cutter's one-word email when Dan Pfeiffer told her Solyndra was about to go under in August 2011 http://bit.ly/NpNnEU

[DCon]

Mike Krieger, interviewed by the lovely Lauren, makes a very good point at the end of the below interview.

None of the major issues (Too Big To Fail banks, agressive foreign policy, erosion of civil rights) are being discussed in the lead up to the election as both parties are in complete agreement.

He also says that both parties are completely beholdeb to Wall Street banks as they have the ability to sink the economy and ruin a President


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...HXalclPM#t=48s

[Count Bobulescu]

Mike Krieger, interviewed by the lovely Lauren, makes a very good point at the end of the below interview.

None of the major issues (Too Big To Fail banks, agressive foreign policy, erosion of civil rights) are being discussed in the lead up to the election as both parties are in complete agreement.

He also says that both parties are completely beholdeb to Wall Street banks as they have the ability to sink the economy and ruin a President


http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...HXalclPM#t=48s

He’s right on the banks, and on civil liberties. Foreign policy gets an occasional airing. But this election is primarily about jobs and the economy.

Yep both parties are raising money on Wall St. but the Republicans are in much deeper than the Democrats. By a factor of 3 or 4 to 1 IIRC. If you took Wall St funding out of the R equation they would be in big trouble financially, less so the D’s.

[DCon]

He’s right on the banks, and on civil liberties. Foreign policy gets an occasional airing. But this election is primarily about jobs and the economy.

Yep both parties are raising money on Wall St. but the Republicans are in much deeper than the Democrats. By a factor of 3 or 4 to 1 IIRC. If you took Wall St funding out of the R equation they would be in big trouble financially, less so the D’s.

During the show they state that Obama was the main beneficiary of Wall Street in 2008.

Maybe Wall Street switch sides frequently to keep both parties honest

[Count Bobulescu]

During the show they state that Obama was the main beneficiary of Wall Street in 2008.

Maybe Wall Street switch sides frequently to keep both parties honest

Obama was the main beneficiary in 08 but McCain was pathetic and Wall St. switches sides to back a winner in the hope of favorable regulation.

[Kev Bar]

Thanks Kev, Thought LeVine had Romney’s number alright but was a little harsh or naive about Obama’s remarks to AIPAC. That conference is held in DC every year and the attendance seems to me to be dominated by the hardline orthodox sects that come down from NY by the busload. That’s the only time of year we see them. When speaking to them, there is no percentage in going all wobbly. The NY Hasidic jews do vote, but their vote alone, unlike the broader Jewish vote, is not significant in the overall NY vote.

Not that it matters for election purposes but Obama’s popularity in Israel is on the floor, has been from day one, and now there is carping that he has not visited Israel. His surrogates say he viewed it as more important to try to repair relations with the Islamic world, than consolidate with the Israelis.

I'm not sure about him too harsh.
Curiously it was Cameron who spoke out during Tahrir saying that the West needed to look at how it viewed the Arab world and address the blatant racist assumptions inherent in mainstream political thought and discourse.
Despite being bombarded with stereotype, I still think the people are more progressive than their leaders on this issue.
And that's a disgraceful cowardice that appears to be a case of being captive to vested interests. Or at least muted
A little less Israeli exceptionalism and a lot more "we are all the same" discourse is urgently required.
Obama has the skills to dramatise this important point if he were to choose to do so.

[Count Bobulescu]

Here’s a good graphic on the candidates finances. The map is interactive. Hover on a state and it will tell you how much Obama and Romney have raised there. Obama has raised much more than Romney so far both nationally and in NY. To find the NY figures you need to hover toward the lake side rather than ocean.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...nance/?hpid=z2

[DCon]

Romney being cryptic

Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney has declared America's central bank, the Federal Reserve, should not take on yet another attempt to stimulate the struggling economy and instead called for "something dramatic".

http://www.independent.ie/breaking-n...l-3190289.html