US Presidential Election 2012

[Count Bobulescu]

It is a source of constant amusement to me that so many people obsess—as if fiddling with a Rubik’s Cube—over the various combinations of states that could get either President Obama or Mitt Romney to the magic number of 270 votes in the Electoral College. The guilty include pros at both ends of the political spectrum; people who ought to know better; and armchair analysts who seem to think that they can crack the magic code.

This article appeared in the Saturday, June 30, 2012 edition of National Journal.
http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...-math-20120628

OBAMA CAMPAIGN sells $30 T-shirts: "HEALTH REFORM STILL A BFD"

ADELSON PLEDGES $10 MILLION TO KOCH BROTHER NETWORK: "Casino mogul Sheldon Adelson this week pledged $10 million to the Koch brothers' 2012 efforts, cementing a potent alliance of two of the biggest spending forces in conservative politics," Ken Vogel scoops this morning. ..Together the groups in the Koch network intend to spend nearly $400 million ahead of the 2012 election." http://politi.co/OE6PDi


BEHIND THE CURTAIN - "Romney Campaign Unleashes Coordinated Response to Court Ruling," by Michael D. Shear on NYTimes.com "Caucus Blog ": "Moments after the Supreme Court ruled on President Obama's health care law, Lanhee Chen, the policy director for Mitt Romney, sent an e-mail to about three dozen senior Republicans on Capitol Hill and in state attorneys general's offices. 'Please stand by. Reviewing. Will circulate answer,' the e-mail, sent at 10:17 a.m. said in part. Minutes later, at 10:27 a.m., Mr. Chen sent another e-mail: 'Go with upheld.' ... For more than two months, a group of top aides to Mr. Romney met weekly with staff members to Republican lawmakers, legislative campaign committees and representatives of the state attorneys general. The meetings, led by Jeff Larson, the chief of staff at the Republican National Committee, were usually held ... on the fourth floor of the committee's headquarters.
"Scenario One assumed the court had upheld the health care law . Scenario Two assumed the court had overturned it. Scenario Three contemplated a variety of partial rulings. In each case, the group developed separate statements, Twitter hashtags, videos and Web sites. ... 'Once Lanhee gave the green light, we were hitting our state parties, our surrogates," [RNC Communications Director Sean] Spicer said. ... The surrogate list, developed over weeks, included dozens of state and national Republican officials, booked onto television and radio programs from morning to night. The switch was thrown on a Web site: peoplevobamacare.com. Republican officials everywhere started posting on Twitter with the agreed-upon hashtag: #fullrepeal." http://nyti.ms/LkIM7R



RYAN LIZZA, "Why Romney Won't Repeal Obamacare ": "If Romney were to win in November, the first matter he'd have to deal with would be the fallout from the so-called fiscal cliff of December 31st ... Because the fiscal-cliff negotiations will be an enormous fight over the size and scope of the federal government, every government policy will theoretically be open to debate-including, Romney might insist, repeal of the A.C.A. But it's a fantasy. The negotiations would be dead before they started if Republicans demanded repeal as a price for a Grand Bargain on taxes, spending, and entitlements. The fiscal-cliff negotiations will undoubtedly include a great deal of horse-trading that will infuriate and cheer partisans on both sides. But there is literally nothing Republicans could offer Democrats in return for repealing the Party's greatest achievement since the Johnson Administration." http://nyr.kr/LwOQsa


THE COVERAGE - "Rush to report US health ruling trips up CNN, Fox," by AP Television Writer David Bauder: "Bloomberg News and The Associated Press were the first reporting the news - correctly, at 10:07 a.m. ... The New York Times made a point of tweeting that reporters and editors were analyzing the decision and would write when they were comfortable that the nuances were correct. The paper didn't tweet the news until 10:20 a.m. CNN apologized for its error, saying it 'regrets that it didn't wait to report out the full and complete opinion' ... Fox, however, insisted it was right. 'Fox reported the facts, as they came in,' said network executive Michael Clemente.

"The inaccurate reports were the first ones seen by Obama, who was watching four television monitors outside the Oval Office. White House Counsel Katherine Ruemmler came in moments later with the true story. ... 'The court striking down that mandate is a dramatic blow to the president,' said CNN reporter John King. ... Within moments, Ruemmler hurried toward the White House and flashed the president two thumbs up. She explained her reading, and Obama hugged her as Chief of Staff Jack Lew looked on. ...

"The Huffington Post's politics Twitter feed first made the wrong call ... Caution was discussed ahead of time during several planning meetings at The New York Times, said Jim Roberts, assistant managing editor. ... ABC's Terry Moran had less than a minute ... before he was talking on the air to anchor[s Diane Sawyer and ]George Stephanopoulos ... Moran quickly spotted that Roberts had decided the case ... with the court's liberal justices, a sign that it was highly unlikely the health care law had been overturned."


WHAT IT MEANS FOR NOVEMBER WON'T BE CLEAR FOR WEEKS: "Over the next six weeks or so, health care will be an unpredictable race within a race," Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman write. "For Mitt Romney, who had every reason to expect the conservative high court to strike down at least a big part of the law, the decision requires a bit of recalibration. He had hoped to portray a full or partial repeal as evidence Obama squandered the trust of the American electorate by wasting two years...[That] will take a back seat to a more generic GOP assault on the law highlighting the court's insistence that the individual mandate be legally defined as a tax - an approach more likely to appeal to the conservative base than independent voters...Views about the Affordable Care Act are baked into the political cake already, and most independents undecided about their choice this November are bored, confused, exhausted or all of the above about a law that keeps cropping up like athlete's foot." More: http://politi.co/NVCw9Y. My story with Robin Bravender on the tax messaging: http://politi.co/M9pEhl.

ROMNEY'S MESSAGING HURDLE: "He has argued the difference between his law in Massachusetts and 'Obamacare' is that his was 'constitutional,' a distinction that would seem to disappear now that the justices say the president's was, too. 'I think it does bring Romneycare back into play a little bit," [former Romney consultant] Alex Castellanos acknowledged." He's also going to be under pressure to offer specifics.

CHICAGO STRATEGY AIMS TO HIT ROMNEY ON HIS MANDATE: "Obama wants to move swiftly beyond the court decision, to cherry-pick the most attractive parts of his reform effort - prohibitions on discrimination based on pre-existing conditions, free checkups for women, extension of parental coverage to kids up to the age of 26 - and present them to the public as a menu of enticing new benefits and consumer protections," Reid Epstein and Glenn Thrush write. "The second part of the strategy: Daring Mitt Romney to attack him on the least popular part of the law - the individual mandate - which Romney championed in Massachusetts." http://bit.ly/MWVT1d.

OBAMA'S TIMING PROBLEM: "The victory was dropped into the pre-July 4th valley of summertime news coverage rather than as a welcome fall bombshell dropped when voters will be most tuned into the race."

REALITY CHECK - MOST DON'T NAME HEALTH CARE AS TOP PROBLEM: A Gallup release out this morning says "few Americans so far in 2012 mention healthcare when asked to identify the most important problem facing the country." Just 6% said healthcare is the top problem in June, behind mentions of the economy, jobs, the deficit, and problems in government. BUT "Gallup in May gave Americans a list of 10 economic issues and asked them to rate the importance of each. Americans put healthcare at the top of the list. Forty percent rated 'the cost of healthcare' as extremely important, with another 44% saying it was very important, putting it just ahead of unemployment and the federal budget deficit." http://bit.ly/LUjSLG


PEGGY NOONAN in tomorrow's Wall Street Journal: "It is a big victory for the White House. ObamaCare, including the insurance mandate, was upheld. What would have been a political disaster for President Obama has been averted. He has not been humiliated, and the centerpiece of his efforts the past 3½ years has not been rebuked by the Supreme Court." http://on.wsj.com/LVfyNI

CONSERVATIVE INTELLIGENTSIA SAYS ROBERTS IS CRAZY LIKE A FOX-
CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER: "It's the judiciary's Nixon-to-China: Chief Justice John Roberts joins the liberal wing of the Supreme Court and upholds the constitutionality of Obamacare. How? By pulling off one of the great constitutional finesses of all time. He managed to uphold the central conservative argument against Obamacare, while at the same time finding a narrow definitional dodge to uphold the law - and thus prevented the court from being seen as having overturned, presumably on political grounds, the signature legislation of this administration." http://bit.ly/LkVjrP

GEORGE WILL: 'Conservatives won a substantial victory Thursday...The physics of American politics - actions provoking reactions - continues to move the crucial debate, about the nature of the American regime, toward conservatism. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. has served this cause...The health-care legislation's expansion of the federal government's purview has improved our civic health by rekindling interest in what this expansion threatens - the Framers' design for limited government. Conservatives distraught about the survival of the individual mandate are missing the considerable consolation prize they won when the Supreme Court rejected a constitutional rationale for the mandate - Congress's rationale - that was pregnant with rampant statism." http://wapo.st/QxKmGq

ERICK ERICKSON of RedState: "The all or nothing repeal has always been better ground for the GOP and now John Roberts has forced everyone onto that ground. It seems very, very clear to me in reviewing John Roberts' decision that he is playing a much longer game than us and can afford to with a life tenure. And he probably just handed Mitt Romney the White House." http://bit.ly/QxKfuy


LATE TO THIS - GOP LAWSUIT CHALLENGES CONTRIBUTION CAPS: "The Republican National Committee filed a lawsuit last week challenging campaign contribution limits set by the federal government, continuing the party's efforts to dismantle the laws restricting money in political campaigns," The Washington Post's T.W. Farnam reports. "The suit challenges the cap on the total amount of money that one person may give to political candidates, parties and some types of political action committees during a two-year election cycle. The RNC lawsuit, filed Friday in U.S. District Court in Washington, is the latest in a series of cases brought by conservatives challenging laws that restrict how elections are funded. So far, they have found a largely receptive audience at the Supreme Court under Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., most notably with the 2010" Citizens United decision. http://wapo.st/LkIxK0

10 MEMORABLE QUOTES FROM THURSDAY -

SCOTT PELLEY at the top of the CBS Evening News: "The conservative Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court, today, single handedly saved the most important domestic achievement of a liberal president." http://ti.me/NbbpTA

ROMNEY: "If we want to get rid of Obamacare, we're going to have to replace Obama."

OBAMA: "I didn't do this because it's good politics. I did it because I believed it was good for the country."

PATRICK GASPARD (DNC executive director and former White House political director): "it's constitutional. Bitches." http://bit.ly/NVt2eH

RAHM EMANUEL: "I gave him my advice. I told him many times the political cost of doing this. And thank God for the country, he didn't listen to me." http://lat.ms/ODZbJc

ROB PORTMAN: "As a lawyer, I can see where Roberts is concerned about the institution and maybe that explains it? It's hard to look into the minds of these justices." http://bit.ly/N2xhV1

RAND PAUL: "Just because a couple people on the Supreme Court declare something to be 'constitutional' does not make it so. The whole thing remains unconstitutional." http://politi.co/MuJ2Vt

NANCY PELOSI in a phone call with Vicki Kennedy: "Now Teddy can rest." http://politi.co/MDQ5t1

JOE BIDEN tweets: "Today's decision is a really big - important - deal." http://bit.ly/OEIMnL

SARAH PALIN on Facebook: "Thank you, SCOTUS. This Obamacare ruling fires up the troops as America's eyes are opened! Thank God." http://on.fb.me/NJ9MNZ

LIGHTER CLICKS -

DEMOCRATS beat Republicans 18-5 at the annual congressional baseball game.

CNN'S erroneous report fooled Obama, who thought briefly that his law had been struck down: http://politi.co/LkL7jj.

JON STEWART made fun of Republican reactions to the decision, especially Romney's speech: http://gaw.kr/LVgaTC.

STEPHEN COLBERT, in character, pretended that his heart was broken by Roberts: http://gaw.kr/LUnXzp.

GOOGLE sends over the top five rising search terms from 7-11 a.m. yesterday: Justice Roberts, John Roberts, individual mandate, mandate and SCOTUS: http://bit.ly/OI8VTO.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "As president, Mitt will nominate judges in the mold of Chief Justice Roberts." - The Romney campaign web site http://bit.ly/N14joB

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

BEHIND THE CURTAIN - Daily Beast, "In an anxious conference call from Air Force One, Obama asked campaign donors to send more money. Lloyd Grove obtained the tape": "President Obama sounded weary and maybe a tad worried late Friday during a rambling conference call with campaign donors whom he repeatedly begged to send money-and send it now. 'The majority on this call maxed out to my campaign last time. I really need you to do the same this time," the president said in a highly unusual ... fundraising pitch from Air Force One on his way back to Washington from Colorado Springs ... A special phone on the government aircraft is dedicated to political calls that are paid for by the campaign.

"'I'm asking you to meet or exceed what you did in 2008 ... Because we're going to have to deal with these super PACs in a serious way. And if we don't, frankly I think the political [scene] is going to be changed permanently. Because the special interests that are financing my opponent's campaign are just going to consolidate themselves. They're gonna run Congress AND the White House.'" http://bit.ly/KVYdqk

NEW FROM THE CAMPAIGNS: Stephanie Cutter, Obama deputy campaign manager, writes a six-page rebuttal to FactCheck.org's "Obama's 'Outsourcer' Overreach: The president's campaign fails to back up its claims that Romney 'shipped jobs' overseas." Cutter's letter http://bit.ly/NdECPH ... FactCheck.org's original post http://bit.ly/MNpXNA

TIME publishes a "Special Report: The Health Care Decision," on newsstands today, with the cover story, "Roberts Rules: What his landmark decision means for Obama, Romney, the court - and you," by David Von Drehle : "Not since King Solomon offered to split the baby has a judge engineered a slicker solution to a bitterly divisive dispute. With his fellow Supreme Court Justices split 4-4 between two extreme outcomes - blessing the sprawling health care law or killing it - Roberts maneuvered half the court into signing half his ruling and the other half into endorsing the rest. He gave the liberals their long-cherished dream of government-led reform while giving his fellow conservatives new doctrine to limit congressional power, which they have been seeking since the New Deal.

"With the court's approval ratings at record lows and supporters of President Obama grimly predicting a legal travesty - or even a judicial coup - Roberts somehow cloaked a win for right-leaning legal theory in the glittering garb of a triumph for the left. And the Democratic swords that were being sharpened for an election-year war against the court were hammered into trumpets with which to herald the statesmanship of the Republican Chief Justice." Read Von Drehle and see the cover. http://ti.me/KO7HiN

DID ROMNEY RAISE $100+ MILLION IN JUNE? "People close to the Romney campaign say it could close its June fund-raising books having collected an additional $100 million, possibly more, a tally that would exceed all expectations and further extend the overall Republican financial advantage in the race," Jeff Zeleny and Jim Rutenberg wrote in their A1 story for Sunday's Times about the effectiveness of the Bain attacks. "With that cash influx, Mr. Romney's team is preparing a new advertising campaign that will aggressively portray Mr. Obama as a craven political figure, rather than the transformative leader he pledged he would be. They began that effort in the past several days with a new ad that uses video of Hillary Rodham Clinton lashing out at Mr. Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary campaign as spending 'millions of dollars perpetuating falsehoods.' Aides said they were considering more ads with Mrs. Clinton or her husband criticizing Mr. Obama." http://nyti.ms/OSVxLx

OBAMA DONOR SLAMMED BY RNC IN 2008 GIVES TO OBAMA: "In 2008, the Republican National Committee raised critical questions about campaign contributions Barack Obama received from a former Iraqi politician with a controversial past and close ties to an Obama fundraiser who was convicted on attempted bribery and extortion charges. During this election cycle, the donor, Chicago-area resident Aiham Alsammarae, has given $4,800 to likely GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, Federal Election Commission records show," USA Today's Aamer Madhani reports. "Alsammarae gave Romney five contributions totaling $2,300 in 2011. He donated $2,500 more to Romney in May. He also gave $250 to Romney in January 2008, according to FEC records." http://usat.ly/OY7p08

RUPERT MURDOCH tweeted yesterday morning: "Met Romney last week. Tough O Chicago pros will be hard to beat unless he drops old friends from team and hires some real pros. Doubtful. ... US election is referendum on Obama, all else pretty minor." http://bit.ly/MLGVJj

ROMNEY CLASHED WITH MURDOCH ON IMMIGRATION: Maggie Haberman reports on the exchange at a meeting for about 40 top donors and media elites at the Union League Club in Manhattan late Thursday afternoon. Murdoch, according to three sources, told Romney on the issue of immigration generally, "You have to take the fight to Obama on this." More: "Romney said the Hispanic vote is important, noting he has Sen. Marco Rubio on the trail for him and that one of his own sons speaks Spanish, but indicated he is not going to change positions from some of what he said in the primaries. 'I know I took some positions in the primary that are' hard to contend with in a general, Romney said, according to two sources. 'I am not going to be a flip-flopper,' he added ...He talked more about the various concerns that he has to balance in terms of competing constituencies who have different views - and noted, two sources said, the precise percentage that Hispanic voters make up in the swing states, a figure that was less than 20 percent...At one point, the sources said, Romney conceded that Obama had made a smart political maneuver with the executive action he took on immigration." http://politi.co/LNNcCE

JACK WELCH TWEETS: "Hope Mitt Romney is listening to Murdoch advice on campaign staff...playing in league with Chicago pols...No room for amateurs." http://bit.ly/LNUMgo

BARCLAYS EXEC NO LONGER HOSTING MITT FUNDRAISER: "Romney's campaign says that Bob Diamond, the embattled chief executive of Barclays bank, will no longer be co-hosting a London fund-raiser," the Boston Globe reports. "Diamond, a Concord, Mass., native who oversees one of the world's largest banks, has been embroiled in a rate-fixing scandal in Britain that is threatening to expand." Breaking news is that he did resign: http://bo.st/N61eDx.

NYT A1 - MANY FIRST-TIME VOTERS NOT ENTHUSED ABOUT OBAMA: "In the four years since President Obama swept into office in large part with the support of a vast army of young people, a new corps of men and women have come of voting age with views shaped largely by the recession," Susan Saulny writes on the front page. "And unlike their counterparts in the millennial generation who showed high levels of enthusiasm for Mr. Obama at this point in 2008, the nation's first-time voters are less enthusiastic about him, are significantly more likely to identify as conservative and cite a growing lack of faith in government in general, according to interviews, experts and recent polls. Polls show that Americans under 30 are still inclined to support Mr. Obama by a wide margin. But the president may face a particular challenge among voters ages 18 to 24...For 18- and 19-year-olds, the unemployment rate as of May was 23.5 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For those ages 20 to 24, the rate falls to 12.9 percent, compared with the national unemployment rate of 8.2 percent for all ages." http://nyti.ms/MnRpCZ

NEW OBAMA AD - "OUTSOURCING VERSUS INSOURCING": The reelection campaign's latest contrast spot keeps up the attack on outsourcing and Bain Capital. "What a president believes matters," a male narrator says earnestly. "Mitt Romney's companies were pioneers in outsourcing U.S. jobs to low-wage countries. He supports tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. President Obama believes in insourcing. He fought to save the U.S. auto industry and favors tax cuts for companies that bring jobs home. Outsourcing versus insourcing. It matters." The 30-second commercial, called "Believes," will air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Watch: http://bit.ly/NZbbjw.

RNC ATTACKING OBAMA OVER "UNPATRIOTIC" DEBT: As part of the "promise gap" messaging push this week, the Republican National Committee is releasing a new web video that highlights video of Obama attacking George W. Bush four years ago for adding $4 trillion to the debt. The then-senator called it "irresponsible" and "unpatriotic." Since Obama became president, over $5 trillion has been added to the debt. The one-minute video includes several clips of mainstream media figures like David Gregory and George Stephanopoulos lamenting the rise of the debt. Watch: http://bit.ly/LuaPSu.

EMERGING NARRATIVE - NO BIG POST-SCOTUS BOUNCE FOR OBAMA: "Four surveys conducted since Thursday's 5-4 ruling upholding the Affordable Care Act's individual mandate show a slight uptick in favorability for his health care reforms," Reid Epstein notes. "Pollsters, though, attribute that as much to Americans wanting to side with a winner than any permanent support: The numbers show an electorate slightly in favor of the law, even if they don't know too much about it. And the bitter divide remains. Republicans are still angry about the decision and vow to see it overturned and Democrats say they'd rather be discussing something else." Reid: http://politi.co/KXExSQ. Good table-setter by the AP's Chuck Babington on how static the race is (via the Denver Post): http://bit.ly/MQn2nr.

WALL STREET IS STILL GIVING TO PRESIDENT: "Defying expectations, the securities and investment industry has remained an important part of the Obama fundraising effort," Peter Nicholas and Daniel Lippman write on A4 of today's Wall Street Journal. "Mr. Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised more than $14 million from the securities and investment industry through the end of April, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Mr. Obama's campaign alone raised $361,000 from the industry in May...It's true that those totals are well below the $28.2 million that Mr. Obama, together with the DNC, raised from the industry throughout the 2008 campaign. And Mr. Obama has fewer securities and investment fundraisers than he did four years ago, though he still has time to bring more people into the fold... [BUT] the securities and investment sector still holds the third spot among the top 10 interest groups in the most recent rankings of individual donations to the Obama campaign and the DNC." http://on.wsj.com/MrPDkk

LIGHTER CLICKS -

LORETTA SANCHEZ, the California congresswoman, dances to "Call Me Maybe" in a 2-minute video produced by her summer interns: http://bit.ly/NdK4lJ.

NEWT GINGRICH tweeted at 4:48 a.m. ET this morning: "Friend and coauthor bill forstchen notes washington-baltimore blackout mild taste of what an emp (electromagnetic pulse) attack would do... Forstchen's novel 'one second after' is an amazingly vivid story of small town's struggles after all electricity has been destroyed by emp." Tweets: http://bit.ly/KNZZoO. The Amazon page about the book that Newt's referring to: http://amzn.to/KVQV5X.

GEORGE W. BUSH is in Africa with Laura to promote the Pink Red Ribbon Partnership, which is helping women with cervical cancer. Here's a picture of Bush renovating a clinic in Zambia: http://on.fb.me/LRDYLK.

THE BUSH LIBRARY is trying to archive and sort the 200 million emails from his presidency. The Dallas Morning News: http://dallasne.ws/LRQ2g4.

SMART POLITICS ranks the senators by the number of mentions they've gotten on the six broadcast/cable networks since the beginning of the year. Top five: John McCain, Marco Rubio, Harry Reid, John Kerry and Mitch McConnell. A six-way tie for last place: John Boozman (R-Ark.), Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), Thad Cochran and Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Mike Enzi (R-Wyo.). Full list: http://bit.ly/OYnMd2.

POLLING IN MEXICO is done in person. Sasha Issenberg wonders in Slate if this is the future of U.S. polling: http://slate.me/NnIICS. As expected, Enrique Peña Nieto and the PRI won big last night: http://bit.ly/KVPUL9.

ARTUR DAVIS, the former Democratic congressman from Alabama who has expressed interest in running for something as a Republican in Virginia, helped open a Romney campaign headquarters in Bristow, Va., on Saturday. Photo: http://bit.ly/LZFF6i.

FOX NEWS apologizes for wrongly running b-roll of Mitch Daniels during a package on Jerry Sandusky: http://bit.ly/LRtNXP.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Which idiot put the GOP convention the same time as 'Burning Man' in Nevada? Is there time to change this?" - Grover Norquist http://bit.ly/N5JmJ7

[Count Bobulescu]

THE NEW CRAWFORD? Boston Globe p. 1, "Romneys put tiny N.H. town in spotlight: Residents get a taste of presidential flavor," by Sarah Schweitzer in Wolfeboro, N.H.: "Around this summer haven, residents say the Romneys are a common sight, often after the dinner hour, at Bailey's Bubble. Mitt, Ann, perhaps the boys - who are not boys anymore, though that's what everyone around town still calls them - and the grandkids queue up at the ice cream stand. ... Now, Romney is accompanied by a growing entourage, with Secret Service agents on alert and police boats guarding the waters near his shingled home ... Media have moved in, renting boats and using long lenses to get a better look at the Romneys and answer crucial questions such as: Does Romney paddleboard? (Indications are that he does. He bought four paddleboards at Dive Winnipesaukee during his last visit to town.) ...

"[S]hould Wolfeboro become the Summer White House - a New Hampshire equivalent of Walker's Point in Maine or the LBJ Ranch in Texas - residents say change would surely come to this town of mountain vistas, power boats, and floral quilted totes. ... There are 2,684 registered Republicans and 1,233 Democrats. But there are also 2,619 undeclared - otherwise known as independent - voters ... And while the town voted Republican in the past three presidential elections, John McCain won Wolfeboro by just 105 votes in 2008." Behind pay wall.

THE NARRATIVE - "Assets offshore raise Romney wealth questions," by AP's Stephen Braun, for Thursday papers : "For nearly 15 years, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's financial portfolio has included an offshore company that remained invisible to voters as his political star rose. Based in Bermuda, Sankaty High Yield Asset Investors Ltd. was not listed on any of Romney's state or federal financial reports. The company is among several Romney holdings that have not been fully disclosed, including one that recently posted a $1.9 million earning - suggesting he could be wealthier than the nearly $250 million estimated by his campaign. The omissions were permitted by state and federal authorities overseeing Romney's ethics filings ...

Sankaty was transferred to a trust owned by Romney's wife, Ann, one day before he was sworn in as Massachusetts governor in 2003, according to Bermuda records ... The Romneys' ownership of the offshore firm did not appear on any state or federal financial reports during Romney's two presidential campaigns. Only the Romneys' 2010 tax records ... confirmed their continuing control of the company. ...

"The use of offshore companies such as Sankaty is allowed under U.S. tax laws. They are typically set up as shell corporations by private equity and hedge funds to route investments from large foreign and institutional investors, such as large pension plans, into corporate takeovers. The money is used to provide equity and buy up debt. In turn, the investors gain U.S. tax advantages by passing their funds through the offshore 'blocker' corporations, avoiding a high 35 percent tax on earnings that the Internal Revenue Service describes as 'unrelated business income.' Set up in Bermuda in 1997, Sankaty served as Romney's partnership stake in Bain's Sankaty group, which invests in bonds, bank loans and corporate debt instruments. That first wave of Sankaty funds managed more than $100 million in investments in the late 1990s and early 2000s, according to a corporate analyst familiar with the funds. ...

"Since late 2003, Romney has left his financial decisions to ... a 'blind trust' overseen by lawyer R. Bradford Malt, a longtime Boston legal associate. The trust was set up under Massachusetts law, but it's not a federally qualified blind trust - which Romney plans to use if he wins the presidency. Romney does not oversee his investments under his current trust, but its general composition is made public and Malt invests according to Romney's political positions. ... Several U.S. Securities and Exchange documents from the late 1990s and 2000s depicted Romney as Sankaty's owner at the time, but when he ran for Massachusetts governor in 2001 and 2002, Romney did not list the company on annual disclosure forms required by the Massachusetts State Ethics Commission." http://bit.ly/O59cuc

AIR WAR - $15 MILLION BEING SPENT THIS WEEK ON ADS: "From July 2 through July 8, the Obama campaign has purchased $6.5 million of advertising in the battleground states; the Romney camp $4.3 million; the conservative group Americans for Prosperity $2.6 million; and the pro-Obama Priorities USA Action $1.4 million," per NBC's Mark Murray. "In fact, the Obama campaign has bought a whopping $24.1 million -- in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia -- for the entire month of July." Here's the 10 hottest markets by points: http://on.msnbc.com/M12Alq.

RESTORE OUR FUTURE MAKES HUGE OLYMPICS BUY: The pro-Mitt Romney super PAC Restore Our Future will spend $7.2 million on advertisements during the London Olympics. The buy will get them on the air in 11 states - Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin - from July 31 to August 9.

WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO - OHIO BUS TOUR: At 9:10, the President leaves the White House for a flight to Toledo, Ohio - where he will kick off his two-day "Betting on America" bus tour through Northern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania. At 11:40, he speaks at a campaign event at the Wolcott House Museum Complex in Maumee. At 3:40, he speaks at an ice cream social at Washington Park in Sandusky, Ohio. At 7:15, he has a third rally at James Day Park in Parma. He'll spend the night in Akron. Jay Carney will gaggle on Air Force One.

OBAMA TO ANNOUNCE TRADE COMPLAINT AGAINST CHINA TODAY: "Demonstrating a tough line on trade with China, the Obama Administration will file an unfair trade complaint today against China's new duties on some American-made cars and sport utility vehicles, including the Toledo-made Jeep Wrangler," The Toledo Blade reports this morning in a preview of the president's visit. "A senior administration official told The Blade Wednesday the United States will file the case with the World Trade Organization in Geneva, accusing China of putting illegal duties on $3.3 billion worth of U.S.-made auto imports...The enforcement action aims to force China to rescind the duties it placed disproportionately on General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC imports because of the 2009 taxpayer rescue of the auto industry." http://bit.ly/L25yEI

ANOTHER POTUS TALKING POINT FOR TODAY: At his event in Sandusky, a campaign official emails that Obama will note the unemployment rate has dropped by 7.6 percent since he took office.


WALL STREET JOURNAL EDITORIAL KEYS OFF ON CAMPAIGN: On the heels of Rupert Murdoch's tweeted critique, his Wall Street Journal has a blistering editorial in today's edition that goes much, much further - keying off on Eric Fehrnstrom's MSNBC comments as a possible "turning point" that is emblematic of what they believe is wrong with the campaign. The editorial board says Eric's comment was not a gaffe (citing Andrea Saul's subsequent defense) and frets that Boston is overly concerned about flip-flopping on Romneycare. The Journal is unsatisfied with Mitt's clarification on CBS: "he offered no elaboration, and so the campaign looks confused in addition to being politically dumb."

THE BIG PICTURE - MORE FROM THE EXPLOSIVE EDITORIAL: "This latest mistake is of a piece with the campaign's insular staff and strategy that are slowly squandering an historic opportunity...The Romney campaign thinks it can play it safe and coast to the White House by saying the economy stinks and it's Mr. Obama's fault...Team Obama is now opening up a new assault on Mr. Romney as a job outsourcer with foreign bank accounts, and if the Boston boys let that one go unanswered, they ought to be fired for malpractice...All of these attacks were predictable, in particular because they go to the heart of Mr. Romney's main campaign theme-that he can create jobs as President because he is a successful businessman and manager. But candidates who live by biography typically lose by it. See President John Kerry...Mr. Romney promised Republicans he was the best man to make the case against President Obama...So far Mr. Romney is letting them down." http://on.wsj.com/KVaHtv

ANN TELLS CBS THAT OBAMA WANTS TO "DESTROY" MITT: "Well, I feel like all [Obama is] doing is saying, 'Let's kill this guy,'" Ann said in her own taped interview with Jan Crawford yesterday that aired this morning. "Not when I'm next to him you better not," she quipped. "When you hear the president of the United States saying that a president needs compassion and that your husband doesn't have it, do you listen to that? Number one, they're not correct. It makes you recognize that they are gonna do everything they can to destroy Mitt." http://politi.co/NaEeTZ


SNEAK PEEK, N.Y. Times Magazine cover story by ROBERT DRAPER: "Rent Hike! Can the Democrats' super-PAC operatives raise enough money to keep Obama in the White House? ... The price of power: The Democrats have a deep distaste for the new rules of campaign finance and the game they have to play. But make no mistake about it: They ARE playing ": "[Bill] Burton and [Sean] Sweeney's [Priorities USA Action] now appears to be on relatively solid footing. As of late June, the super PAC has amassed a total of $40 million, with almost $20 million in the bank and about a dozen million-dollar donors onboard. Among the most recent is Qualcomm's co-founder Irwin M. Jacobs and his wife, Joan, newcomers to the world of political mega-giving, whom Burton and other Priorities surrogates spent a year courting in person, on the phone and by e-mail before the couple relented and gave $2 million.

"Priorities' $100 million goal is within reach but by no means assured. 'In order to do that,' [Priorities USA Action President Harold] Ickes says, 'we're going to have go get some $5 million and $10 million donors.' ...

"On June 21, Burton returned to Buffalo to deliver the commencement address at City Honors School, from which he graduated in 1995. ... [T]hat evening, while Burton was dining out with old high-school buddies and faculty members, a Washington Post article about Romney and Bain Capital appeared on the paper's Web site. ... From the restaurant, Burton e-mailed Sweeney and their team. By 10:45 p.m., they had drafted a memo that would be sent to the e-mail addresses of several hundred political reporters by 7 the next morning: ...

Soon they would be adding more Bain-related questions to their polls, seeking to add depth to their narrative, the one best shot their modestly financed super PAC had at persuading swing voters and thereby making a difference in a closely contested presidential election. Burton and Sweeney were doing what they do best, telling the story - though when it came down to it, getting enough people to listen would still be the hardest part." http://nyti.ms/NakCiw

LIGHTER CLICKS -

THE MARINE CORPS BAND played Rodney Atkins' "It's America" as Obama greeted visitors at a White House July Fourth party. The Rodney Atkins song is a hallmark of Romney rallies. The Hill's story: http://bit.ly/ML6j5J. Here's the music video if you're not familiar with the song: http://bit.ly/NBY86G.

THE BOSTON POPS performed last night in sync with the fireworks. 20-minute video: http://bit.ly/L21Qv1.

FOREIGN POLICY Magazine imagines the American Revolution playing out over Twitter: http://bit.ly/MRKFfo.

THE WHITE HOUSE HISTORICAL ASSOCIATION posts 10 photos of July Fourth celebrations from the past 100 years: http://bit.ly/M7JTJ1.

JOHN ROBERTS gets photographed by the AP in Malta: http://bit.ly/LqpVx2.

BILL CLINTON earned $13.4 million from paid speeches in 2011. CNN: "The most lucrative was a November speech in Hong Kong to Swedish-based telecom giant Ericsson -- $750,000. Clinton also earned $700,000 for a March speech to a local newspaper publishing company in Lagos, Nigeria, and $550,000 for a November speech to a business forum in Shanghai, China. He earned $500,000 apiece for three events in Austria and Holland in May and in the United Arab Emirates in December." http://bit.ly/Pij0Y1

ALEC BALDWIN'S interest in running for New York City mayor could actually be "very real," his little brother Billy told Piers Morgan: http://politi.co/NakLCz.

HBO is planning some kind film about Fox News chief Roger Ailes based on Gabriel Sherman's unflattering stories in New York Magazine: http://bit.ly/NCfSi5.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Who wrote this sh-t?" - Michael Bloomberg balks after rattling off 12 hot dog puns in a speech at the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating contest weigh-in http://nydn.us/MKRbWb

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

KRUGMAN: What’s good for Bain Capital isn’t good for America. “His case for becoming president relies, instead, on his claim that, having been a successful businessman, he knows how to create jobs. This, in turn, means that however much the Romney campaign may wish otherwise, the nature of that business career is fair game. How did Mr. Romney make all that money? Was it in ways suggesting that what was good for Bain Capital, the private equity firm that made him rich, would also be good for America? And the answer is no…Bain didn't build businesses; it bought and sold them. Sometimes its takeovers led to new hiring; often they led to layoffs, wage cuts and lost benefits. On some occasions, Bain made a profit even as its takeover target was driven out of business. None of this sounds like the kind of record that should reassure American workers looking for an economic savior.” Paul Krugman in The New York Times.

Talk of a shakeup in Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign is running rampant, with the expectation within the Republican political class that the former Massachusetts governor will add seasoned hands rather than part ways with any of his current senior staffers.

At the heart of the critique of the Romney campaign, which began with a tweet from News Corp. CEO Rupert Murdoch and has continued with a stinging Wall Street Journal op-ed and harsh words for the campaign from the Weekly Standard’s Bill Kristol today, is the idea that the presidential candidate’s staff may not be up to the task of running the sort of race it will take to beat President Obama.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pisrc=nl_pmfix

AMERICAN BRIDGE, the liberal super PAC that tracks GOP candidates, is pushing a 2-minute video they uncovered from a June 2006 press conference in which Mitt Romney basically sounds like President Obama as he explains why he could not turn the economy around overnight. "I came in and the jobs had been just falling right off a cliff. I came in and they kept falling for 11 months. And then we turned around and we're coming back and that's progress," he says. "And if you are going to suggest to me that somehow the day I got elected, somehow jobs should have immediately turned around, well that would be silly." Watch: http://bit.ly/M3UJ6D.

POPPING THIS MORNING-OBAMA ATTACKS ROMNEY ON HEALTH TAX: The president swings at his opponent as an unprincipled flip-flopper in an interview with Cincinnati's NBC affiliate that will air this morning. "On the health care bill, Mr. Romney was one of the biggest promoters of the individual mandate," Obama says, according to advance excerpts just emailed by the campaign. "That's exactly what's included as part of my health care plan...And the fact that a whole bunch of Republicans in Washington suddenly said, this is a tax -- for six years he said it wasn't, and now he has suddenly reversed himself. So the question becomes, are you doing that because of politics? Are you abandoning a principle that you fought for, for six years simply because you're getting pressure for two days from Rush Limbaugh or some critics in Washington?...One of the things that you learn as President is that what you say matters and your principles matter. And sometimes, you've got to fight for things that you believe in and you can't just switch on a dime."

WHAT OBAMA IS UP TO - BUS TOUR: President Obama wraps up his two-day "Betting on America" bus tour. At 9:40, he'll travel to Boardman, just south of Youngstown, to tour Summer Garden Food Manufacturing, a food manufacturing facility. Then he'll speak at 10:45 at Dobbins Elementary School in Poland, Ohio, to give a speech on the economy. At 1:50, he'll hold a rally at the Center for the Arts Lawn on the campus of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. Then he flies back to the White House for a 4:55 event with construction workers and college students in the East Room to sign HR 4348, which includes transportation money and the student loan compromise. At 6, he hops on Marine One for Camp David - where he'll spend the night.
.
POSITIVE EARNED MEDIA FROM DAY 1 OF BUS TOUR: Chicago is circulating these four headlines from yesterday's Ohio swing. AKRON Beacon Journal: "On bus tour in Ohio, Obama says election will decide nation's economic fate." COLUMBUS Dispatch: "Obama tells crowd he bet on American worker during Ohio bus tour." POLITICO: "Sobbing woman thanks Obama for health care law." USA Today: "Obama hits the notes on his Ohio bus tour."

ROMNEY TALKERS-

RAISED MORE THAN $100 MILLION IN JUNE: "The Romney campaign, along with its Romney Victory fund and the Republican National Committee, raised more than $100 million in June, obliterating the campaign's goal and setting the one-month record for any Republican campaign," Mike Allen scooped yesterday afternoon. "Now-President Barack Obama raised $150 million as he was surging in September 2008, the record month for any campaign. New York was a gold mine for Romney, and Colorado, Michigan, New Jersey and Ohio all dramatically exceeded expectations." http://politi.co/NrLhGa

BIG OVERSEAS TRIP PLANNED: "Romney's campaign is considering a major foreign policy offensive at the end of the month that would take him to five countries over three continents and mark his first move away from a campaign message devoted almost singularly to criticizing President Barack Obama's handling of the economy," sources tell Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Martin. "The tentative plan being discussed internally would have Romney begin his roll-out with a news-making address at the VFW convention later this month in Reno, Nev. The presumptive GOP nominee then is slated to travel to London for the start of the Olympics and to give a speech in Great Britain on U.S. foreign policy. Romney next would fly to Israel for a series of meetings and appearances with key Israeli and Palestinian officials. Then, under the plan being considered, he would return to Europe for a stop in Germany and a public address in Poland, a steadfast American ally during the Bush years and a country that shares Romney's wariness toward Russia. Romney officials had considered a stop in Afghanistan on the journey, but that's now unlikely." http://politi.co/Po65nk

MORE OUTSIDERS WILL COME IN, BUT INNER CIRCLE MAINTAINING CONTROL: "Romney is planning to fortify his communications and messaging team by adding seasoned operatives, advisers close to the campaign said Thursday, after withering criticism from prominent conservative voices that his insular team has fumbled recent opportunities," The Washington Post's Phil Rucker reports. "Romney's advisers insisted that he would keep his inner circle intact amid growing concerns about the Republican presidential candidate and his campaign... The campaign plans to bolster its rapid response and overall messaging operations and to assemble a senior staff for the eventual vice presidential running mate, according to strategists close to the campaign. They said some Republicans who have been informally advising the campaign may assume more official duties, including appearing as surrogates on television. The strategists said the moves could be announced as early as next week." http://wapo.st/N3OdKn

CONSERVATIVE GRIPING GROWS - "Republicans don't all agree on what, exactly, Romney must do to set his campaign back on the right track. The common theme in their angst is simply: do something," Alex Burns and Maggie Haberman write. http://politi.co/Na3fuN

MURDOCH RELATIONSHIP WITH ROMNEY HAS LONG BEEN ICY: The New York Times runs Jeremy Peters story about the interactions between Romney and News Corp chief Rupert Murdoch on the front page. "Mr. Murdoch's dim view of Mr. Romney points to a palpable disconnect between the two men, one that has existed since Mr. Romney's first run for president four years ago, people who know them both said. More than a half-dozen friends and advisers to the two, speaking mostly anonymously to reveal private and frank conversations, said the Murdoch-Romney relationship could be summed up simply: They do not have much of one. They have met only a handful of times. Their lukewarm feelings toward each other stem from their encounter at a meeting of The Journal editorial board in 2007, when Mr. Romney visited to pitch himself as the most capable conservative candidate about two months before the Iowa caucuses...At one point, Mr. Romney declared that 'I would probably bring in McKinsey,' the management consulting firm, to help him set up his presidential cabinet, a comment that seemed to startle the editors and left Mr. Murdoch visibly taken aback. The Journal's write-up of that meeting would later glibly refer to Mr. Romney as 'Consultant in Chief.'" http://nyti.ms/N3I0ho

NATIONAL ORGANIZING BLITZ SET FOR TOMORROW: "In the first of a series of massive volunteer mobilization efforts, the campaign and the Republican Party will undertake 'Super Saturday,' a day when GOP volunteers call and canvass hundreds of thousands of swing-state voters, just as they will before Nov. 6," USA Today's Martha Moore reports. The goal is not just to know which voters are on board with Romney, but to test the presidential campaign's ability to turn out the vote - something the GOP struggled with in 2008...The results will be tracked in real time through software applications that allow volunteers to enter information into their cellphones on the voter's doorstep. Information from phone calls is also recorded...The GOP will run these Saturday tests once a month." http://usat.ly/Pj95QK

OBAMA TALKERS-

WHITE HOUSE WHITTLES DOWN NO CHILD: "In just five months, the Obama administration has freed schools in more than half the nation from central provisions of the No Child Left Behind education law, raising the question of whether the decade-old federal program has been essentially nullified," Motoko Rich reports in today's New York Times. "On Friday, the Department of Education plans to announce that it has granted waivers releasing two more states, Washington and Wisconsin, from some of the most onerous conditions of the signature Bush-era legislation. With this latest round, 26 states are now relieved from meeting the lofty - and controversial - goal of making all students proficient in reading and mathematics by 2014. Additional waivers are pending in 10 states and the District of Columbia." http://nyti.ms/OyHBoX

SHOT - OBAMA SAYS HEALTH CARE LAW "IS HERE TO STAY": 'I'll work with anybody who wants to work with me to continue to improve our health care system and our health care laws, but the law I passed is here to stay,' Obama said at a campaign event in Ohio, per Reid Epstein. 'I'm running because I believe that in American no one should go bankrupt because they get sick,' Obama said. To "try and move forward and make sure that every American has affordable health insurance and that the insurance companies are treating them fairly. That's what we fought for, that's what we're going to keep. We are moving forward...We will not go back to the days when insurance companies prey on the sick. Six million young people are now on their parents health insurance plans.' http://politi.co/KXFs0W

CHASER - GOP PLOTS ANOTHER REPEAL VOTE: The House Rules Committee announced Thursday that it will meet at 5 p.m. Monday to discuss the 'Repeal of Obamacare Act.' That sets the stage for a vote of the full House. It's symbolic but will keep health care in the news. http://politi.co/MO2bCb

MEANWHILE-LABOLT SAYS POTUS DOESN'T THINK MANDATE IS A TAX: Obama campaign spokesman Ben LaBolt, appearing on CNN yesterday, said the president still believes the fee should be called a 'penalty' and not a 'tax.' He claimed: 'At no point did any of the government lawyers say it was a tax.' Republicans pounced on the comment: http://bit.ly/LSPl4q.

AXELROD CALLS ROMNEY MOST SECRETIVE CANDIDATE SINCE NIXON: "In an interview with CBS Radio News on the sidelines of an Obama campaign rally Thursday evening in Parma, Ohio, senior campaign adviser David Axelrod called Romney, 'the most secretive candidate we've seen probably since Richard Nixon,'" per Peter Maer. "Axelrod accused Romney of 'trying to turn back the clock' on transparency by 40 years. The veteran Obama adviser criticized Romney for failing to release 'a full set of (tax) returns like most candidates.'" http://cbsn.ws/NGYj0p

LIGHTER CLICKS -

THAD MCCOTTER, the oddball Michigan Republican congressman, wrote a TV pilot script that made fun of his failed run for the White House with graphic language. The Detroit News got a copy: http://bit.ly/PnZCc8.

CHRIS CHRISTIE posted a 4-minute video with lots of clips of him being provocative from on the occasion of hitting 5 million views on YouTube: http://bit.ly/LBSBOZ.

CHARLIE LEDUFF golfs the length of Detroit for the local Fox affiliate: http://bit.ly/M8xR0F.

JESSE JACKSON JR.'S office announced that the Illinois Democrat medical condition is more serious than they thought and that "he has grappled with certain physical and emotional ailments privately for a long period of time." http://politi.co/LtijcZ

RAUL CASTRO, the 96-year-old former governor of Arizona, was detained in 100-degree-heat by Border Patrol agents for a half-hour after a radiation sensor at a checkpoint went off: http://bit.ly/M45K7X.

SAN DIEGO accidentally fired off all their fireworks at once, so what was supposed to be a 15-minute show finished in 30 seconds. Awesome video: http://bit.ly/OcPlsX.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The customer is always right." - President Obama jokingly tells a patron at a bar in Ohio that he should ask the owner to turn off Fox News. http://bit.ly/RqgTyK

[Count Bobulescu]

Updated, 10:55 a.m.: Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign outraised President Obama by $35 million in June, pulling in $106 million to the incumbent president’s $71 million, according to numbers announced by the campaigns Monday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics


DRIVING THE DAY - OBAMA TO EMBRACE MIDDLE-CLASS TAX CUTS: "With a torpid job market and a fragile economy threatening his re-election chances, President Obama is changing the subject to tax fairness, calling for a one-year extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for people making less than $250,000," The New York Times' Mark Landler scoops. "Mr. Obama plans to make his announcement in the Rose Garden on Monday, senior administration officials said. The ceremony comes as Congress returns from its Independence Day recess...The president's proposal could also put him at odds with Democratic leaders like Representative Nancy Pelosi of California and Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, who have advocated extending the cuts for everyone who earns up to $1 million. But by calling for an extension for just a year, Mr. Obama hopes to make Republicans look obstructionist and unreasonable...he also hopes to deepen the contrast with his challenger, Mitt Romney." http://nyti.ms/PDRyUA

CHICAGO'S ROLLOUT PLAN -- From a campaign official: "To amplify the President's message on middle class tax cuts the campaign will host a series of events in battleground states all next week across the country. They include a press conference in Concord, NH featuring local middle class families. In Las Vegas local elected officials will discuss President Obama's efforts to fight for the middle class. In Colorado Aspen Mayor Mick Ireland, Colorado Democratic Party Chair Rick Palacio and State Senator Gail Schwartz will hold a press conference to discuss the contrasting economic visions of President Obama and Mitt Romney. And in Florida a Tampa Bay small business owner and local officials will discuss the President's plan for tax reform and responsibly bringing down the deficit while fighting for middle class security." Campaign advisor Robert Gibbs will appear on the Today Show and Morning Joe.

THE STAKES - FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD: Awful jobs numbers ensured a terrible Friday for Obama. Adding insult to injury, a diner owner who hosted the president in Akron, Ohio, died just hours after he visited. On the flight back to DC, the president called her daughter to express condolences (http://on.wsj.com/NepQdu ). The lackluster jobs news was welcome news for Romney, quieting grumbling from the right about his campaign leadership and allowing them to move beyond the debate over whether Romneycare's individual mandate is a tax or not. The president wants to talk about the economy on his terms, thus the tax announcement today. And his campaign, emboldened by signs that their attacks are working, will continue to intensify efforts to disqualify Romney in the eyes of independents. With that in mind, here are five questions for the week ahead:

(1) Can Romney avoid sounding under-concerned about the deficit and overly concerned with the rich as he responds to Obama's tax gambit?
(2) How many independents will see Obama's tax announcement as craven, election-year class warfare?
(3) How sympathetically will the elite media cover Chicago's push to get Romney to release more tax returns?
(4) Is this the week Romney finally runs an ad touting his Bain experience as a positive?
(5) Is Obama going to mention health care more than in passing during his Tuesday Iowa visit? http://dmreg.co/NeeDZX

LATEST POLLING-

OBAMA ATTACK ADS ARE WORKING: "In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of swing states, an overwhelming majority of voters remember seeing campaign ads over the past month; most voters in other states say they haven't. In the battlegrounds, one in 12 say the commercials have changed their minds about [Obama or Romney] - a difference on the margins, but one that could prove crucial in a close race," Susan Page writes. "At this point, Obama is the clear winner in the ad wars. Among swing-state voters who say the ads have changed their minds about a candidate, rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% now support the president, vs. 16% favoring Romney. To be sure, Obama's ads have done more to win back Democrats than to win over independents or Republicans: Thirteen percent of Democrats say their minds have been changed by ads, compared with 9% of independents and 3% of Republicans."

"In the 12 battleground states, the race is all but tied. Obama leads Romney 47%-45% among 1,200 registered voters in the poll June 22-29 - a tick closer than Obama's 48%-44% lead among 2,404 voters in the rest of the USA over the same period. The swing states survey focuses on a dozen states that aren't firmly aligned with either Democrats or Republicans...Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin." Story: http://usat.ly/NhWo2A . Separately, Planned Parenthood releases a memo this morning to argue that its attack ads are also moving the needle: http://politi.co/Mg6vHv.

SNEAK PEEK - RNC SAYS OBAMA ATTACKS ARE DISTRACTION: The Republican National Committee is highlighting independent fact-checker criticisms of Obama's attack ads on outsourcing in a new infographic that seeks to highlight the inverse relationship between job creation and attacks emanating from Chicago. View it here: http://bit.ly/PzaRgD.

REALITY CHECK FROM BILL KRISTOL: "President Obama had three disappointing months, BUT he's holding his own. And if I were in the Romney campaign, that would worry me," the Weekly Standard editor said on Fox News Sunday. http://politi.co/MfZbM6

RICH DONORS DON'T HELP ROMNEY BY TALKING TO REPORTERS: "As protesters assembled on a beach in advance of Mitt Romney's evening event at the home of conservative billionaire David Koch, the candidate slipped to East Hampton for his first of three fundraisers on this tony stretch of Long Island," the Los Angeles Times' Maeve Reston reports. "The line of Range Rovers, BMWs, Porsche roadsters and one gleaming cherry red Ferrari began queuing outside of Revlon Chairman Ronald Perelman's estate...'I don't think the common person is getting it,' [a New York City donor who would not give her name] said from the passenger seat of a Range Rover stamped with East Hampton beach permits. 'Nobody understands why Obama is hurting them. We've got the message. But my college kid, the baby sitters, the nails ladies -- everybody who's got the right to vote -- they don't understand what's going on. I just think if you're lower income -- one, you're not as educated, two, they don't understand how it works, they don't understand how the systems work, they don't understand the impact.' http://lat.ms/LY2M2V

MITT'S MESSAGE AT SOUTH HAMPTON (overheard by CNN): "By the way, you guys are doing fine," Romney was heard saying at Sobel's beachfront home. "If you're here, by and large you're doing just fine. And I don't spend a lot of time worrying about those that are doing as well as you guys are, or how I'm doing, but I spend a lot of time worrying about those that are poor and those in the middle class that are finding it hard to make a bright future for themselves." http://bit.ly/LBDidP

STRAIGHT TALK - BOEHNER TELLS DONORS THAT MITT DOES NOT NEED TO BE LOVED TO WIN: Speaker John Boehner was quite candid at a June 30 fundraiser in Wheeling, West Virginia, when a woman asked whether he could make her fall in love with Romney. "No," Boehner said, in a response confirmed by his office to Roll Call's Jonathan Strong. "Listen, we're just politicians. I wasn't elected to play God. The American people probably aren't going to fall in love with Mitt Romney. I'll tell you this: 95 percent of the people that show up to vote in November are going to show up in that voting booth, and they are going to vote for or against Barack Obama...Mitt Romney has some friends, relatives and fellow Mormons ... some people that are going to vote for him. But that's not what this election is about. This election is going to be a referendum on the president's failed economic policies...Solid guy, he's going to do a great job, even if you don't fall in love with him." http://bit.ly/M9YX6p

MILITARY CUTS LOOM AS LATE CAMPAIGN ISSUE: "For all the focus on the unemployment rate heading into the November elections, the layoffs that could most complicate President Barack Obama's re-election prospects wouldn't take effect until early next year," The Wall Street Journal's Patrick O'Connor reports. "Unless Congress and the White House reach a compromise by year-end, the Pentagon would have to slash roughly $50 billion more from the current fiscal-year budget in January. That prospect of wide layoffs could undercut Mr. Obama in battleground states heavily dependent on military spending, particularly Virginia." http://on.wsj.com/PyBv9u

LIGHTER CLICKS -

DEMOCRATIC TRACKERS are recording video of GOP congressmen's homes and posting the raw footage on the Internet for all to see: http://politi.co/NeddP2.
STUART STEVENS and RUSS SCHRIEFER, Mitt's ad and message team, are profiled by Maggie Haberman in a story leading our site. They're minimalists who are following the same playbook with Romney they have in previous races, which is to stay light on specifics and do no harm: http://politi.co/N9ibh9.

CHRIS CHRISTIE lost his cool while vacationing on the Jersey Shore when a man challenged his education policies. There's emerging concern among the Gang of 500 that the New Jersey governor is too hot-headed for the vice presidency. 30-second video via TMZ: http://bit.ly/PEbPJH.

MARK NEUMANN, a Republican candidate for Senate in Wisconsin, is "surprisingly adept at what the Germans call Masskrugstemmen, a sport you've likely not heard of and that you won't see in the upcoming Olympics," the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. The contest is to see who can hold a full stein of beer with their arm extended the longest. Photo: http://bit.ly/LBzEQZ.

STEPHANIE CUTTER, Obama's deputy campaign manager, gets profiled by POLITICO's Lois Romano: http://politi.co/PyVQLR.

JIM MESSINA, Obama's campaign manager, gets mini-profiled by USA Today: http://usat.ly/Mc0uPJ.

JON HUNTSMAN will skip the Republican National Convention, he tells the Salt Lake Tribune in an interview full of scolding for the GOP: http://bit.ly/N94Vcn.

SCOTUSblog posts a 7,000-word ticktock on the nine minutes of confusion as John Roberts announced the Court's health care decision, including props to the news outlet that got it right first: http://bit.ly/RJBZYP.

OBAMA spoke behind a presidential seal at a campaign event Friday, which CBS' Mark Knoller notes is a reversal from what Robert Gibbs announced in 2010.

POTUS will still not speak behind a presidential seal when speaking at campaign fundraisers: http://cbsn.ws/NTt8Pz.

[Count Bobulescu]

ROMNEY'S SILENCE: An increasing number of Republicans are nervous that Mitt Romney’s decision to forgo policy details on a range of topics will hamper his chances to become the 45th president.
The intensifying debate on how specific Romney should be has divided the GOP. Conservative pundits are pushing the former Massachusetts governor to plug in some policy gaps, but others in GOP circles — including members of Congress — don’t see an urgent need for the presumptive nominee to shift course.
Republican strategists told The Hill that Romney’s campaign needs to highlight more aggressively who he is and what he believes, rather than just blasting President Obama for the ailing economy.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...-party-worries

LAS VEGAS -- As he began his speech before more than 1,800 Latino activists gathered at the National Council of La Raza, Vice President Joe Biden paused to ask for forgiveness.
"Anticipatory absolution," he said, with a smile. The crowd, filled with Hispanic Catholics, applauded its approval. "Bless me, Father, I hope I don't sin."
Then he lit into GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, flaying him as out of touch with the middle class and out of step with the Latino community. It was a blistering speech highlighted by Biden chiding Romney over his refusal to release multiple years of tax returns.
"He wants you to show your papers, but he won't show us his," Biden said. The crowd roared. And Biden beamed his toothy grin.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...ith-a-smil.php

If President Obama’s campaign machine can define Mitt Romney before his own campaign even tries, my bet is Obama wins reelection.
It seems the Romney campaign believes that any day or dollar spent talking about anything other than the economy is a day or dollar wasted. Unquestionably, the economy’s state and direction, as well as voters’ perceptions on Obama’s handling of it—are important. Obama’s approval ratings on the subject are awful. According to the June NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 42 percent of voters approve of the way Obama has handled the economy, while 53 percent disapprove. Additionally, just 31 percent think the country is headed in the right direction; and 61 percent believe it is on the wrong track. Voters seem quite willing to fire Obama as a result.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/colum...risis-20120709

The Obama campaign on Tuesday shrugged off reports showing that Republican challenger Mitt Romney outpaced the president by $35 million in contributions last month, even after firing off a dire message to donors warning of defeat in November if fundraising doesn’t improve.
“We are sticking to the fundraising course we set from the beginning,” Obama campaign spokeswoman Katie Hogan said. That means, she said, that the team will continue to grow a base of donors — which it currently places at 2.4 million — who are able to contribute small amounts throughout the campaign
“We’ll stick to the course we know, which is that the more people you get involved in any way possible is how you win,” she said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...rc=nl_politics

FRIENDLY FIRE: LEFT HITS POTUS ON OUTSOURCING -- WashPost A1, below fold, "Obama struggles to make headway on outsourcing: President's record is criticized as jobs keep flowing from U.S.," by Tom Hamburger (who wrote the Bain outsourcing story), Carol D. Leonnig and Zachary A. Goldfarb : "Obama's critics, primarily on the political left, say he has repeatedly failed ... to protect American jobs from being moved overseas. They point to a range of actions they say he should have taken: confronting China, reining in unfettered trade and reworking a U.S. visa program that critics say ends up sending high-tech jobs abroad. ... From 2008 to 2010, U.S. trade with China alone cost about 450,000 American jobs because of the growth of Chinese exports, said Robert E. Scott, a pro-labor advocate at the liberal Economic Policy Institute. That figure was less than in previous years, but the decrease was probably tied to the U.S. economic slowdown, which crimped demand for imports. ...

"According to a study by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, large American companies in 2010 barely added any workers in the United States, increasing their numbers by 0.1 percent, while they expanded their foreign workforce by 1.5 percent. ... [B]etween 2004 and 2010, the bureau reported, foreign affiliates hired 2 million workers while 600,000 were added by the companies at home. White House officials say Obama has fought to slow the movement of jobs overseas, even when that meant confronting difficult political opponents and powerful global economic forces. 'The president could not have been more emphatic about his vision for trying to eliminate the incentives for offshoring and increase incentives to create jobs here,' said Brian Deese, deputy director of Obama's National Economic Council. 'We have tried to use all the tools available to us to make creative administrative changes where we can to discourage offshoring.'" http://wapo.st/RUvlPC

BUT, BUT, BUT - "Embattled Dems diverge From Obama on taxes," by Seung Min Kim, Manu Raju and Scott Wong : "Several Democrats in critical House and Senate races say they prefer raising taxes on people who make more than $1 million, the latest example of how the president and vulnerable Democrats are mounting diverging campaigns just four months from Election Day. Democratic Florida Sen. Bill Nelson's 'favored' position is to permanently extend the Bush-era tax cuts for those making less than $1 million, according to his office. Democrat Heidi Heitkamp, the North Dakota Senate candidate, also wants to extend the tax cuts for those making less than $1 million. Former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who's running again in his home state, 'believes the $250,000 limit is too low but is evaluating how specific proposals would affect the budget' ... Virginia Senate candidate Tim Kaine, the former chairman of the Democratic National Committee, prefers a $500,000 threshold." http://politi.co/MXdGqU

"NOTHING HIDDEN HERE" - Romney yesterday to Kay Henderson of Radio Iowa, on his investments being managed by a blind trust: "I don't manage them. I don't even know where they are. That trustee follows all U.S. laws. All the taxes are paid, as appropriate. All of them have been reported to the government. There's nothing hidden there. If, for instance, you own shares in Renault or Fiat, you still have to disclose that in the United States. ... I understand the president's going to try to do anything he can to divert attention from the fact that his jobs record is weak and he has no plan to make things better." (hat tip: Emily Schultheis)

SHOT: Obama campaign email yesterday from "Barack Obama," with subject line, "I will be outspent": "We're getting outraised -- a first for a sitting president, if this continues. Not just by the super PACs and outside groups that are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into misleading ads, but by our opponent and the Republican Party, which just outraised us for the second month in a row. We can win a race in which the other side spends more than we do. But not this much more. So I need your help. If you believe that regular people should decide elections, then please chip in $3 or more today. ... Barack"

CHASER: President George Bush was outspent by $114,078,751 in 2004, per data from OpenSecrets.org: Bush/RNC: $727,891,693 ... Kerry/DNC/America Coming Together: $841,970,444

THE NARRATIVE - L.A. Times A1, "Defining Mitt Romney: Obama has a head start," by Paul West : "Romney is now out-raising Obama's campaign money machine, the most prodigious in history. But nervousness has crept into Republican ranks because the unofficial nominee hasn't fully defined himself in voters' minds -- something Obama has been eager to do for him. Obama's attacks on Romney's personal wealth and his work as a private-equity specialist are hurting the GOP candidate, say strategists in both parties. Two months of negative ads authorized by the president, some of them criticized by independent arbiters as misleading and inaccurate, have taken a toll on Romney's standing in battleground states ...

"Republican consultant Rob Stutzman said that voters 'have soured on the president. The question is: Are they willing to turn the keys over? There's an important element that lies ahead for Gov. Romney, who has to tell people what he'll do [as president], and do so with his own voice in his own ads.'"
--Same story runs on Chicago Tribune p. 1, "GOP eager for Romney to fill in personal blanks -- Strategists: Now is time for presidential hopeful to define self to voters." Neither version online yet.

MITT PLANS TWO FUNDRAISERS DURING LONDON OLYMPICS: "The events involve a reception - at a cost of $2,500 per person - and a high-dollar 'private dinner with Governor Mitt Romney' that will cost from $25,000 to $75,000 per person. Both events will be held at a location in 'central London' that has not yet been named," the Boston Globe's Matt Viser reports. http://bo.st/M2uuLS

LIGHTER CLICKS -

BARACK OBAMA gave a shout-out to his "homeboy" Abraham Lincoln at the event in Marion, Iowa, yesterday. It was prompted by a Lincoln impersonator cheering him on in the crowd: http://bit.ly/MhczOc.

TAGG ROMNEY is hawking "vintage" (i.e. retro, hipster) Romney gear in fundraising emails, including this button available for $3 with a picture of Mitt talking to George: http://bit.ly/LO8HoB.

MICHELLE OBAMA'S COOKIE RECIPE beat out Ann Romney's by a 9-3 landslide in a blind taste test conducted at TIME Magazine's offices: http://ti.me/OwXmcy. Speaking of cookies, Sesame Street does the best parody yet of Carly Rae Jepsen's "Call Me Maybe" ... with the Cookie Monster: http://bit.ly/Mi112P.

NANCY PELOSI also danced to "Sharp Dressed Man" at Barney Frank's wedding over the weekend, and a video leaked: http://bit.ly/PLAbQz.

DAVID LETTERMAN makes fun of Chris Christie's weight: http://bit.ly/S36ZDj.

PATRICK LEAHY, the Democratic senator from Vermont, makes a cameo in the forthcoming Batman movie "The Dark Knight Rises": http://bit.ly/NgnzfP.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We have always believed that an Englishman's home was his castle, not a forward operating base." -Attorney David Enright explains his opposition to a High Court ruling in London that allows the Ministry of Defense to place a battery of surface-to-air missiles on the rooftop of his client's apartment building during the Olympics. http://n.pr/NfWLfG

[Count Bobulescu]

POLL OF POLLS

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

A new urgency has swept into President Obama’s campaign as disappointing fundraising numbers have emerged alongside the shaky economy as a major threat to his prospects for reelection.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...ous-team-obama

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney and his team of advisers built a reputation during the Republican primaries as tough street fighters skilled in the tactics of political warfare. They quietly took pride in tearing apart Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and the rest of their rivals.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/12/us...h.html?_r=2&hp

KARL ROVE SAYS VOTERS MUST BELIEVE ROMNEY HAS A PLAN: "The closer Nov. 6 gets, the more pressure there will be on the GOP challenger to offer a principled, practical, detailed governing vision," Rove says in today's Wall Street Journal at the end of a column about how beatable Obama is. "He has many important policies on his website. He could cite them more consistently in his speeches and point voters to them in his campaign ads. That doesn't mean rolling out everything right now. If Team Romney were to do that, the media will declare it old news by Labor Day. But to close the sale, Mr. Romney needs to be perceived on Election Day as the man with a plan." http://on.wsj.com/ObGAi3

NAACP SPEECH - ROMNEY BOOED ON HEALTH CARE: He drew boos, shouts and jeers from attendees at the NAACP convention yesterday, Juana Summers reports. The black audience balked when he said he could better represent black America than Obama. "If you want the president who will make things better in the African-American community, you're looking at him,' Romney said, as he was immediately met with loud shouts. http://politi.co/M4sCT3

GIBBS COMES IN FROM THE COLD: Robert Gibbs has an official role with the campaign again, not just as an informal adviser. From BuzzFeed's Michael Hastings: "'There was a cooling off period,' says one former Obama advisor who worked with Gibbs. Despite the public spat-and the 'unwise thing,' he said, as another friend put it-colleagues say the president still considers Gibbs a friend. David Axelrod, the president's guru, also remains a crucial Gibbs ally. That being said, there's the 'Michelle and Valerie thing,' and in his role as senior advisor, 'he won't have to deal with them,' says the source. It's unlikely that relationship will repair itself anytime soon, if at all, according to Gibbs' former colleagues...Another colleague says that as the campaign begins to enter the home stretch, Gibbs will be doing more and more media appearances...Not that everyone in Obamaland is so keen to welcome him back...he's considered a terrible and sometimes abrasive manager. Gibbs is also associated with Obama's 'Boys Club' ... The 2012 campaign has more female staffers in leadership positions than when Gibbs ran things in 2008." http://bit.ly/M4wh3a

EXPERTS BACK UP OBAMA ON VENEZUELA: That's what the Miami Herald says in its day story on the Rubio and Romney attacks over Obama's claim that Hugo Chavez does not pose a "serious" threat to American national security. "Experts in the region, though, called Obama's comments reasonable," Erika Bolstad and Patricia Mazzei write. "Chávez is 'certifiable,' with a tremendous ego fueled by the power that comes from sitting on vast oil reserves - but he's not as dangerous as the leaders of other less friendly regimes, said Riordan Roett, the director of Latin American Studies Program at the School of Advanced International Studies at The John Hopkins University. The Republican criticism is 'just pure electoral politics,' Roett said." http://hrld.us/NnLI5K

OUTSOURCING-

ROMNEY STAYED LONGER AT BAIN THAN HE SAYS: Government documents filed by Mitt Romney and Bain Capital say Romney remained chief executive and chairman of the firm three years beyond the date he said he ceded control, even creating five new investment partnerships during that time," the Boston Globe's Callum Borchers and Christopher Rowland report. "Romney has said he left Bain in 1999 to lead the winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, ending his role in the company. But public Securities and Exchange Commission documents filed later by Bain Capital state he remained the firm's 'sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president.' Also, a Massachusetts financial disclosure form Romney filed in 2003 states that he still owned 100 percent of Bain Capital in 2002." http://bo.st/MmHoCT

WHAT AXELROD IS READING - MOTHER JONES SAYS ROMNEY INVESTED MILLION IN CHINESE FIRM THAT PROFITED ON OUTSOURCING: "According to government documents reviewed by Mother Jones, Romney, when he was in charge of Bain, invested heavily in a Chinese manufacturing company that depended on US outsourcing for its profits-and that explicitly stated that such outsourcing was crucial to its success," David Corn writes in a story for the liberal magazine's web site, which was quickly tweeted by David Axelrod after it posted. "This previously unreported deal runs counter to Romney's tough talk on the campaign trail regarding China...with this investment, Romney sought to make money off a foreign company that banked on American firms outsourcing manufacturing overseas. On April 17, 1998, Brookside Capital Partners Fund, a Bain Capital affiliate, filed a report with the Securities and Exchange Commission noting that it had acquired 6.13 percent of Hong Kong-based Global-Tech Appliances, which manufactured household appliances in a production facility in the industrial city of Dongguan, China. That August, according to another SEC filing, Brookside upped its interest in Global-Tech to 10.3 percent. Both SEC filings identified Romney as the person in control of this investment." http://bit.ly/MmHIBs

MITT FRAMES HIS RESPONSE ON OUTSOURCING ATTACKS: "I of course respond to the attacks which come," he told Fox Business' Neil Cavuto. "But you know, they say in politics, if you're responding, you're losing . I think the better course for our campaign is to respond to the attacks as being completely off-base...But perhaps most importantly, every day I go out and give a speech, I talk about the issue people care about, and that is the failure of the president's policies to reignite this economy...People are really tired of this kind of petty attack that comes day in and day out from politicians like the president. And they want to see somebody who talks about the issues they care about: good schools, good jobs. The president wants to make this a campaign about attacking wealth. I want to make this a campaign about helping the middle class." http://politi.co/Lhu2Ko

CONDI FOR VP:The political world was abuzz last night after the Drudge Report reported that former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was a frontrunner for Romney's running mate spot. The leak was immediately treated with a healthy dose of skepticism from the political class: Rice has said she's not interested in the job, she has no political experience, she supports abortion rights in a party that regards that as a near-litmus test, and hawks don't have fond memories of her foreign policy record in the Bush administration. Many went a stop further, mocking Drudge's track record in predicting the veepstakes (he hyped Frank Keating in 2000, Dick Gephardt in 2004, and Evan Bayh in 2008). And pundits noted the suspicious timing of the leaked news, right after Romney faced tough new questions about the timing of his tenure at Bain Capital.

But the floating of Rice sounds a lot more like a trial balloon from the Romney campaign than deliberately bad information that Drudge cooked up. Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades is famously close to Drudge, suggesting there's a deliberate strategy at play here for the campaign.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...rial-ballo.php

It’s a good bet that no authors dedicated a book “To Earl Long and Robert F. Kennedy” before James Carville and Stan Greenberg penned It’s the Middle Class, Stupid! It’s an odd book, but definitely worth putting on your preconvention reading list. Indeed, for many Democrats, it will become the playbook on how to talk to voters about economic issues.
Carville and Greenberg, two of the smartest guys in the Democratic Party, have looked at where their party has fallen short over the past three decades, particularly how Democrats have failed to grasp working- and middle-class voters’ attitudes toward government spending and public debt. The book is careful not to criticize President Obama, but one can certainly infer differences between how Carville and Greenberg would have approached economic policy compared with Obama.

http://www.nationaljournal.com//colu...class-20120712

Charlie Rose interview with Carville and Greenberg.

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12446

WHY OBAMA'S STRONGER THAN HIS APPROVAL RATINGS: "About 4 percent of the electorate has a favorable view of Mr. Obama, but does not approve of his job performance," Nate Silver writes on his 538 blog. "The way those voters behave in November could be decisive." Blog post: http://nyti.ms/Oi2eB8. Ron Brownstein argues that Obama will benefit from low expectations: http://bit.ly/MlGdY4.

ROMNEY'S BAIN-YESTERDAY'S BLOW-UP:
ANOTHER TURN OF THE SCREW - ROMNEY DID BUSINESS IN MASS DURING OLYMPICS: "The Romney campaign repeatedly declined to say Thursday evening whether the Republican presidential candidate attended any meetings or had any contact with Bain Capital during the time he ran the Olympic Games," Alex Burns notes. "The former Massachusetts governor, however, has previously acknowledged that he remained active in the corporate arena while heading the Salt Lake City games. In a June 17, 2002, appearance before the Massachusetts State Law Ballot Commission, Romney said that during his Utah-based Olympics service, there were 'were a number of social trips and business trips that brought me back to Massachusetts, board meetings, Thanksgiving and so forth.' ... Romney testified about his residency after Democrats challenged his eligibility to run in Massachusetts after having been based out of state. The election panel signed off on his candidacy."

WHAT HE SAID IN 2002: "Romney told the Massachusetts election panel in 2002 that he remained active in a number of companies while in Utah, including Marriott and Staples, the office supply giant he helped create through investments from Bain. During his ballot commission testimony, when asked whether he continued to serve on boards while working on the Olympics, Romney answered: 'Yes.' ...A Romney aide noted that when Romney was speaking to the ballot commission, he was trying to put to rest questions about his ties to Massachusetts - and it would have made sense to play up his presence in the state." http://bit.ly/PUPMyO

BARRAGE WORRIES REPUBLICANS: "On the facts, nothing terribly new was added to the Bain equation by the Boston Globe story charging that Mitt Romney controlled the company for three years longer than he previously claimed. Several fact-checking organizations said the charges aren't exactly breaking news and Romney's denials have some validity," writes Ginger Gibson. "The problem for the Romney campaign, when it comes to the Bain issue, is that things are reaching the point where the facts don't really matter . The bigger problem is that the Bain cloud now hanging over the former Massachusetts governor is growing daily, and the Romney campaign still hasn't found a compelling way to respond to what's becoming the driving narrative, fairly or unfairly, of the 2012 campaign...Republicans worried that their soon-to-be nominee hasn't sufficiently answered numerous questions swirling around his Bain tenure." Quotes from Rick Tyler, Chip Saltsman, Ana Navarro and Ford O'Connell: http://bit.ly/Le8fOX.

GLOBE WILL NOT ISSUE A CORRECTION: "The Globe story was entirely accurate," editor Martin Baron wrote the campaign's communications director last night. "The Globe story was based on government documents filed by Bain Capital itself. Those described Governor Romney as remaining at the helm of Bain Capital as its 'sole stockholder, chairman of the board, chief executive officer, and president' until 2002. The story also cited state financial disclosure forms filed by Romney that showed he earned income as a Bain 'executive' in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings. The Globe story accurately described the contents of those documents. The Globe story also gave a full account of the Romney campaign's position that, notwithstanding several years of regulatory filings, Mitt Romney 'retired from Bain Capital in 1999 ... (and) has had no involvement in the management or investment activities of Bain Capital, or with any of its portfolio companies, since that time.'" Here's the Romney letter to the Globe complaining about the story: http://politi.co/OhEyNp. The full text of the Globe's letter back: http://politi.co/SgMCTl.

FIGHTING WORDS-OBAMA TEAM SAYS ROMNEY LIED OR BROKE THE LAW: "Romney either lied in federal filings that show he worked at Bain Capital through 2002 and could be guilty of a felony, or has lied to the American people in saying he left the company in 1999, the Obama campaign is arguing in light of news reports on the firm's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission," Jennifer Epstein notes. "Deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter laid out the issue as the Obama team sees it: 'Either Mitt Romney, through his own words and his own signature, was misrepresenting his position at Bain to the SEC, which is a felony,' she said. 'Or he was misrepresenting his position at Bain to the American people to avoid responsibility for some of the consequences of his investments.'"
Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades responded in a statement: "President Obama's campaign hit a new low today when one of its senior advisers made a reckless and unsubstantiated charge to reporters about Mitt Romney that was so over the top that it calls into question the integrity of their entire campaign." http://politi.co/PUO4xn

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

The top super PAC supporting Mitt Romney set a new standard for fundraising by a super PAC in June, collecting $20 million, a PAC aide told The Fix.
Restore Our Future’s unprecedented total is four times what the super PAC raised in May and more than three times what the top super PAC supporting President Obama raised in the same month. (That super PAC, Priorities USA Action, also set a personal best in June with $6 million raised.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ZJoW_blog.html



NEW FROM THE CAMPAIGNS : An Obama campaign ad, "Firms," has an audio track of Mitt Romney singing "America the Beautiful" at The Villages in Florida on Jan. 30, accompanied by type on the screen and images of foreign settings: "In business, Mitt Romney's firms shipped jobs to Mexico. ... As Governor, Romney outsourced jobs to India. ... He had millions in a Swiss bank account. ... Tax havens like Bermuda. ... And the Cayman Islands. ... Mitt Romney's Not The Solution ... He's The Problem." YouTube http://bit.ly/SnZqaG
--"Firms" will air in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia.

FACTS OF LIFE: A week ago today, another disappointing jobs report dominated the news. The whole next week was driven by debate about SEC forms, Swiss bank accounts and old tax returns -- quite a feat of political sleight-of-hand by Team Obama.

SWING STATE SATURDAY - Tampa Bay Times 1A splash, "UP FOR GRABS: The race in Florida is razor-thin, and Sen. Marco Rubio would not bring a big advantage to the GOP ticket, a new polls says," by Political Editor Adam C. Smith : "A new Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll finds Barack Obama and Mitt Romney essentially tied in America's biggest battleground state, with 46 percent of likely Florida voters supporting the president, 45 percent backing the former Massachusetts governor, and 2 percent behind Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson. Only 7 percent are undecided. 'A coin toss,' Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said. ... A Romney-Rubio ticket [statistically ties with] Obama-Joe Biden 46 percent to 45 percent in Florida.

"Dig into the numbers, and what's most surprising is that Obama is at all competitive with Romney: 54 percent of likely Florida voters say the country is on the 'wrong track' with Obama at the helm. ... Only 35 percent believe his policies have improved the economy, while 41 percent say they have made it worse. ... 46 percent of voters approve of the president's job performance, while 50 percent disapprove. ... 52 percent oppose the health care overhaul ... and 50 percent of Florida voters want to see it repealed. ... The telephone survey of 800 registered [likely] Florida voters [has a] margin of error [of] 3.5 percentage points.

"The bad news for Romney ? It's virtually impossible for him to win the presidency without Florida's 29 electoral votes, and the poll shows he has lots of work to do in the Sunshine State over the next four months. Polls throughout the year have consistently shown a tight race in Florida, though the January Mason-Dixon poll found Romney leading Obama by 4 percentage points. In the current poll, crucial independent voters prefer Obama to Romney, 46 percent to 41 percent. While Romney leads comfortably among men in Florida, Obama has a 14-point lead among women. ... Forty-seven percent said his business background gives him the skills to better manage the government and improve the economy. But 38 percent agreed with the statement that 'he is more concerned with making money and his practices in many instances have unnecessarily cost people their jobs in order to earn profits.'" http://bit.ly/NMTPcp


DRIP, DRIP - Boston Globe A1, "Account of Bain departure has evolved: Conflicting evidence on his role after 1999," by Callum Borchers and Brian Macquarrie : "[I]n televised interviews Friday, ... Romney did not budge from his position. 'I had no role whatsoever in the management of Bain Capital after February of 1999,' he told CBS. The 2002 gubernatorial campaign, which Romney won, marked a major pivot in the narrative about his tenure at Bain Capital. From that time on, Romney, now the presumptive GOP nominee for president, began to describe Feb. 11, 1999 - the day he was named chief executive of the Salt Lake City Olympics organizing committee - as the date on which he abdicated all control over Bain Capital and its business operations. But until his run for governor - and even before that campaign was underway in earnest, when he needed to prove sustained connections to Massachusetts in order to ward off a ballot challenge - Romney had characterized his departure from Bain Capital more as a 'leave of absence' in which he would be a 'part-timer' ...

"It was not until 2002 that Romney finalized a severance agreement with Bain, a 10-year deal with undisclosed terms that was retroactive to 1999. Romney's own words, along with other documentary evidence, appear to challenge his campaign's assertion in a recent financial disclosure that Romney had 'retired' from Bain in 1999 and 'since February 11, 1999, Mr. Romney has not had any active role with any Bain Capital entity and has not been involved in the operations of any Bain Capital entity in any way.' Financial disclosure forms Romney filed in Massachusetts indicate he earned at least $100,000 as a Bain 'executive' in 2001 and 2002, separate from investment earnings. ...

"Bloomberg news service reported Friday, Romney is named as one of two managing members of Bain Capital Investors LLC in annual reports filed in Massachusetts as late as 2002, 'adding a new corporate entity to a growing number of Bain-related investments and funds that list the Republican presidential candidate as controlling the company three years after he said he left it.'" http://bo.st/LgFcdO

-Boston Globe 5-col. lead, "Romney fires back, lambasting Obama on Bain tenure attacks: Says he won't release more old tax returns," by Brian Macquarrie: "Romney's round-robin of five television interviews [was] his first attempt to directly address his departure from Bain since [Thursday's] Globe report ... In the CNN interview [with Jim Acosta], Romney said he would not release any additional tax returns beyond the 2010 [out now] and 2011 [when it's ready] forms. 'I know that there will always be calls for more ... People always want to get more. And, you know, we're putting out what's required, plus more that is not required.' Those two years, he added, are 'all that's necessary to understand my finances.'"


Rep. Ron Paul said that the Republican Party is scared to let him speak at the national convention in Florida next month.
The Texas Republican candidate for president said he thinks the prospects of him having the Tampa platform to energize his “Ronvolution” movement of supporters — who buck traditional GOP staples such as war funding and are in favor of more radical ideas such as auditing the Federal Reserve — intimidates some in the Republican leadership, including former Gov. Mitt Romney’s (R-Mass.) campaign.
“I think the Romney campaign organization is very insecure,” said Paul in an interview with Fox Business News on Friday.

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefi...gop-convention

At first glance, the party that Penny Pritzker hosted last month in Chicago could have passed for an Obama reunion. Her modernist home and sculpture garden had been the site of Obama fund-raising events over the years, and the guests that night included presidential allies like Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff turned Chicago mayor, and Warren E. Buffett.

Ms. Pritzker’s commitment has become a matter of mystery and consternation among some Obama supporters struggling to recreate the success of the 2008 finance team that she led as chairwoman. Though she is assisting with the re-election campaign in a number of ways, Ms. Pritzker — whose family owns the Hyatt hotel chain and is active in charitable and Jewish causes — is less visible, has cut back on fund-raising and has told friends that she is intentionally doing less.

Ms. Pritzker is still loyal but weary, those close to her say, and she has learned a tough lesson: it is extremely difficult for the president of the United States to be a good friend.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/us...1&ref=politics

When Mitt Romney was running for governor of Massachusetts a decade ago, Democrats went before a state commission to demand that he be struck from the ballot. Their argument: After taking over the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, he had ceased to live and work in Massachusetts, the state where he had built Bain Capital into one of the leading private equity firms in the world.

Now, amid the heat of the presidential campaign and unrelenting attacks from Democrats over Mr. Romney’s tenure at Bain, the three-year sojourn in Utah has again become the source of controversy — but with the positions reversed.
President Obama and the Democrats are questioning whether Mr. Romney really left Bain in February 1999, when he took over the Olympics. And Mr. Romney and the Republicans are insisting that he ended his day-to-day management role at Bain after taking the Olympics job.

At stake is whether Democrats can hold Mr. Romney responsible for a series of now-controversial investments Bain made during the period in question, including in companies that specialized in outsourcing, laid off some of their workers or declared bankruptcy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/us...1&ref=politics

LIGHTER CLICKS -

BOTH PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS regularly require reporters to get approval for putting quotes from senior advisers on the record, which leads to editing that frustrates reporters. The New York Times' Jeremy Peters does the trend story that lots of reporters will talk about today: http://nyti.ms/Nr5gY0.

BEYONCÉ reads a letter she recently wrote to Michelle Obama for a new video released by the campaign: http://politi.co/NwW31o.

DANA CARVEY did an impression of Romney on Jay Leno's show: http://huff.to/Nr8GtY.

BARACK OBAMA gave a speech in the rain Saturday. 30-photo slideshow: http://bit.ly/Ll74xk.

EGYPTIAN PROTESTERS chanted "Monica, Monica, Monica" at Hilary Clinton's motorcade as she left the newly-reopened U.S. consulate in Alexandria on Sunday. They also threw tomatoes: http://bit.ly/PYlWbe.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Who the hell is Grover Norquist, anyway?" - George H.W. Bush to Parade Magazine http://bit.ly/Mx21Ke

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney continues to struggle to get out from under questions regarding just when he departed from his job at Bain Capital. And there’s reason to believe that he won’t be able to solve his Bain problem anytime soon.

Politics 101 says that when your campaign is bleeding — and Romney’s camp is bleeding right now — the best way to stop it is to get as many facts out as quickly as possible and then insist that it’s a dead issue and refuse to answer questions on it moving forward.
That won’t likely work for Romney because of the seeming contradictions about when he left the company — and the exotic nature of his financial life.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...=nl_pmpolitics

Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney continues to be steadfast in his refusal to release any more than his last two years of tax returns, a position that has already become a distraction to his presidential campaign and could cause considerably more trouble if he doesn’t figure out a better answer — and soon.

“Perception is becoming Romney’s reality and these issues have now risen above mere distractions,” said John Weaver, a Republican consultant and former senior adviser to Sen. John McCain’s (R) 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns. “The President has had the worst three months of any incumbent, due to the economy, since George H.W. Bush in 1992, and yet Romney has lost traction among key demographic groups in the vital swing states. He has got to get this behind him or he’s going to face summer definition ala [Bob] Dole and [John] Kerry. ”

Democrats are doing everything in their power to define Romney negatively before the two parties gather for their national conventions later this summer.
The Obama campaign is up with a new — and brutal — ad today in which a narrator details Romney’s complex financial history and then says that it all “makes you wonder if some years he paid any taxes at all”, adding: “What is Mitt Romney hiding?”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pisrc=nl_pmfix

COOK: IN A CLOSE RACE, CAMPAIGN SKILLS MATTER. Campaign fundamentals are pulling in favor of GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that President Obama’s campaign seems consistently a half step, sometimes a full step or two, ahead, National Journal’s Charlie Cook writes. If this is going to be a close race, as polls suggest it will be, campaigns matter. Even if someone believes that fundamental forces matter most—like the state and direction of the economy and the economic well-being of voters—if a race is close enough, a campaign with the sharper plan and crisper execution can sometimes prevail. Just look at the 51-48 percent squeaker that President George W. Bush won over Sen. John Kerry. Read more

HOTLINE MAKES ITS VEEPSTAKES PICKS. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin top the short list of candidates for the vice-presidential spot on the Republican ticket, according to a new analysis by the Hotline. With signs suggesting a decision by Romney could come soon, the three prominent politicos from important battleground states were the top three picks in Hotline’s Vice Presidential Power Rankings. Next on the list are Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Read more.

DEMS TURN UP THE HEAT ON TAX RETURNS: Both the Obama campaign and the Democratic National Committee are amping up their attacks on Mitt Romney's failure to release additional years of tax returns. The Obama campaign is launching a TV spot in Pennsylvania, timed to coincide with Romney's own visit to the Keystone State today, focusing on his failure to release more than one year of tax returns. "Mitt Romney has used every trick in the book. Romney admits that over the last two years, he's paid less than 15 percent in taxes on $43 million in income -- makes you wonder if some years he paid any taxes at all," the ad says. "We don't know because Romney has released just one full year of his tax returns, and won't release anything before 2010." Watch the full ad: http://bit.ly/MuHhca

MORE ON TAXES - DNC USES GOP VOICES TELLING ROMNEY TO RELEASE MORE: The Democratic National Committee, too, is focusing on Romney's tax returns today with a new web ad. "More and more Republicans agree that Mitt Romney has not released more tax returns because he has something to hide," the video says, quoting from Republicans like columnist George Will, Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley and former Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. "But what did the one Republican who had 23 years of Mitt Romney's tax returns in 2008? He chose Sarah Palin. What does John McCain know that the American people don't?" http://bit.ly/M4AHED

MEANWHILE - GOP CONTINUES OBAMA CRONYISM STORYLINE: Republicans, still looking to take the focus away from questions about Romney's timeline at Bain and calls for him to release more tax returns, will continue to focus on Obama's ties to his donors today. In a new web ad, the Republican National Committee focuses on Steve Westly, an Obama '08 bundler who has benefited from Obama's time in office. "Meet Steve Westly: he raised over $500,000 for Obama's campaign," the ad says. "With Obama in office, Westly Group Investments have received $500 million in taxpayer dollars. Westly was even appointed to a top advisory role, influencing how taxpayer money is spent." Watch the video: http://bit.ly/MuHgFj

SCHMIDT ON '08: ROMNEY'S WEALTH WAS AN ISSUE: Former John McCain adviser Steve Schmidt told the Huffington Post that Democrats are wrong when they say Mitt Romney's tax returns must have been the reason McCain didn't pick him as his running mate four years ago. "We never sat around having a discussion about Mitt Romney's taxes through the prism of a liability if he were chosen' for the ticket, he said. But Romney's wealth was an issue, he added: "Sen. McCain got caught flat-footed answering a question about how many houses he owned. In fact, they were Cindy McCain's properties but that distinction was lost in the political optics and we knew it would be a big liability that the presidential and vice presidential candidates together owned more than a dozen homes. It was like something out of a 'Saturday Night Live' skit. I mean, come on." http://huff.to/MuCVBM

FIRST MORMON FAMILIES BACK ROMNEY: The New York Times looks at a handful of America's first Mormon families, noting that they have provided support to Romney since his first run for office in 1994. This cycle, about two dozen members of these families have bankrolled more than $8 million for the pro-Romney super PAC Restore Our Future. "I think for Mormons, particularly for prominent ones who already feel widely accepted and admired individually, this feels like a chance to also see their church, which they love, accepted and admired institutionally," Richard Eyre, a Mormon and friend of the Romneys, told the Times. http://nyti.ms/OD2Am3

LIBOR MATTERS, BUT CANDIDATES REMAIN MUM. The Libor scandal is bigger – and more consequential – than you think, National Journal’s Major Garrett writes. The manipulation of the London interbank offered rate has mammoth consequences for the global economy, and yet both President Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney have had little to say about it. The lack of attention to Libor, Garrett writes, “makes me wonder if this campaign is really about the economy at all.” Read more

DEM VIDEO MOCKS ROMNEY WITH DANCING HORSE. In a new web video, Democrats attacked Romney on his reluctance to release more of his tax returns and his family's involvement in an obscure horse-dancing sport. The video, from the Democratic National Committee, asks “Do we really want a President who dances around the issues?” and shows clips of Romney giving various explanations on his tax returns and offshore investments. The ad then cuts to a rider on a dancing horse. Romney’s wife, Ann, competes in dressage, an obscure equestrian sport. The Obama campaign also has a new web video out mocking Romney’s explanation on when he actually left Bain Capital, using a convoluted quote he gave defending himself and then getting what appear to be people on the street to read it aloud. Read more

http://nationaljournal.com/2012-pres...horse-20120718

SAN ANTONIO — President Obama took a rare break Tuesday from campaigning in swing states to visit deep-red Texas, mindful that raising green can be as important as turning a state blue in the most expensive election in history.
Trailing Republican challenger Mitt Romney in raising money over the past two months, Obama appeared at four fundraisers in San Antonio and Austin, where his campaign expected to collect as much as $4 million and surpass his previous single-day Texas record.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...rc=nl_politics

COLUMBUS, Ohio — President Obama’s reelection campaign filed a federal lawsuit against Ohio’s top elections official Tuesday in a dispute over the battleground state’s law that restricts in-person early voting in the three days leading up to Election Day.
The lawsuit, filed in Columbus, follows a series of election-law changes that were passed by the state’s Republican-controlled legislature and signed by Gov. John Kasich (R).
Obama’s campaign and other Democrats argue that the law unfairly ends in-person early voting for most Ohioans on the Friday evening before the Tuesday election while allowing military and overseas voters to cast ballots in person until Monday.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...rc=nl_politics

LIGHTER CLICKS-

Mitt Romney's "body man," Garrett Jackson, snaps a picture of the candidate's BBQ sauce-stained clothes after the campaign stopped for food in Mississippi: http://bit.ly/MuBR10

POLITICO'S Manu Raju gets a rare sit-down interview with Minnesota Sen. Al Franken: http://politi.co/LtC1nC

Jon Stewart, back from two weeks off, recaps the attacks on Romney's Bain record: http://bit.ly/M5hEdv

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY:
"I've gotta say that I'm pretty partial to those mint (cookies)." -President Obama, answering a question on his Girl Scout cookie preferences from a young girl at his Ohio town hall. (He was referring to Thin Mints.) http://wapo.st/NxECvk

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

It’s only July, and President Obama’s campaign has already called Mitt Romney an outsourcing, job-killing, company-bankrupting whiner who may also be a tax cheat and a felon. The brass knuckles are out, the presumptive Republican nominee is bleeding, and Obama is selling off his likability as if it were an inexhaustible commodity.
But is it? Can voters tolerate the lurch from preaching hope and change to mocking Romney’s off-key rendition of “America the Beautiful” and hurling contestable allegations that he oversaw the outsourcing of jobs to foreign countries? And even if they do, does Obama’s team see a governing path for a reelected president who has so toxically attacked his rival?

http://www.nationaljournal.com//maga...-bull-20120719

MORE REPUBLICANS CALL FOR MITT'S TAXES: The chorus of Republicans who think Romney should release additional years of tax returns grew again Wednesday, as a handful of GOP senators weighed in on the issue. Via The Hill: "'If it becomes an issue that he can't move beyond in his own campaign, then obviously it would be important to determine to what extent he can release more,' [Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine)] said. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-Ga.) agreed, saying voters appreciate transparency. 'He has lots of advisers. The last thing he needs is a chorus of them, but transparency usually works,' he said." http://bit.ly/LYws20

AND - ROMNEY TEAM SAYS HE DIDN'T PAY $0 IN TAXES: Responding to an Obama campaign ad this week speculated that Romney wasn't releasing his returns because he hadn't paid "any taxes at all," Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul told POLITICO's Alex Burns yesterday that the allegation is "not true." She didn't specify how much Romney did pay in taxes during that time. http://politi.co/LYw8R7

HALPERIN: ROMNEY 'HAS FAILED HIS MIDSUMMER TEST': The TIME analyst says Romney had a chance to fight back on Bain and tax returns but hasn't been able to do so: "No one in politics is surprised that Mitt Romney's personal wealth and business career have become a central point of the 2012 campaign. It has happened in virtually every race that Romney has ever run. But what has stunned both parties is how unprepared he has been to address the accusations that have dominated the campaign discourse for a fortnight, with no end in sight. The White House's aggressive, often cynical, attempts to paint Romney as a secretive, out-of-touch plutocrat are defining the race right now and maybe pre-determining the outcome." http://ti.me/OoFR0H

AMERICAN BRIDGE LAUNCHES 'MITT GETS WORSE': The Democratic group American Bridge 21st Century and Courage Campaign super PAC are teaming up to start the "Mitt Gets Worse" campaign, targeted at highlighting Romney's views on same-sex marriage and LGBT issues. The site features video testimonials from activists who discuss Romney's positions going back to his first run for office in Massachusetts in 1994. The site's name is a play on the "It Gets Better" project, which is a series of videos aimed at helping LGBT youth. http://bit.ly/OoP6xW

BATTLEGROUND BRIEFING-OBAMA TEAM MAKES PLAY FOR RED STATES: The Boston Globe is out with a report on how team Obama is building volunteer infrastructures even in deep red states like Alabama. It's all part of a longer-term "50-state" strategy, the Globe says: "The objective is to build the party apparatus in states that have been traditionally Republican and make them eventually winnable for Democrats. 'Even though Alabama is red doesn't mean it's going to be red forever,' said Sebastian Wygoda, 17, one of the Obama campaign volunteers. 'It takes awhile, but look at North Carolina. No one could have said eight years ago it would be a swing state.'" http://b.globe.com/Ni4wpE

VEEPSTAKES-

ROMNEY SAYS HE HASN'T DECIDED: The candidate told voters at a town hall in Bowling Green, Ohio, that he hadn't chosen his running mate yet. "I can assure you that even though I have not chosen the person who will be my vice president, that person will be a conservative, they will believe in conservative principles,' he said. This news from Romney means the VP announcement, despite speculation that it could happen this week, will most likely come after Romney's foreign trip next week. http://bit.ly/Niv8a3

TEA PARTY WANTS RUBIO: A Tea Party Express survey found that supporters overwhelmingly want Romney to choose Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate. "Rubio was rated a 'strong' candidate by 66 percent of voters, well ahead of Paul Ryan (49.9 percent), Allen West (46.8 percent), Rick Santorum (44 percent), Sarah Palin (41 percent), Michele Bachmann (40.9 percent) and Scott Walker (39.8 percent). 'It is not a big surprise that Marco Rubio is the favorite candidate of the tea party for the vice-presidential nod,' Tea Party Express Chairman Amy Kremer said in a statement, adding, 'The only surprise is that he led the other excellent candidates by such a wide margin.'" http://politi.co/OoHb3H

PORTMAN SAYS HE'S STAYING IN THE SENATE: Asked about the possibility of joining the GOP ticket by a local radio station in Columbus yesterday, Ohio Sen. Rob Portman said he's planning on staying in the Senate. "Asked on WTVN radio in Columbus whether it's still true that he wants to help Ohio by continuing to serve in the Senate, as he has said repeatedly, Portman said, 'It is maybe even truer. No, look, I am happy where I am, I'm fortunate to get to represent our state, and I was elected in 2010 because of my interest in trying to help move our country forward and our state forward here in the U.S. Senate, so that's where I intend to stay.' The interview set off speculation about whether Portman knows anything about Romney's final decision in the process. http://bit.ly/NQB9Fq

NYT ON CHRISTIE: The New York Times looks at the strengths and weaknesses New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie would bring to the GOP ticket. The key line in the argument against choosing him: "Aides and advisers to Mr. Romney, who acknowledge that he was never going to be the safest choice, privately say that they are troubled by Mr. Christie's temper, calling it unsettling and out of step with Mr. Romney's temperament." http://nyti.ms/Ni4qyg

SIREN - "Romney Catches Obama In Virginia, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds ... Romney wipes out President Obama's lead in Virginia and the two candidates are deadlocked 44-44 percent in the race for the Old Dominion's 13 electoral votes ... This compares to a 50-42 percent lead for President Obama in a March 20 survey ... and a 47-42 percent Obama lead June 7. In the state's hotly-contested U.S. Senate race Republican George Allen has 46 percent to 44 percent for Democrat Tim Kaine." http://bit.ly/MtRu4X

--NYT: "ROMNEY HAS AN EDGE" - Top of A1, col. 2, "Economic Fears Hurting Obama, [NYT/CBS] Poll Indicates: Approval Rating Down - For the First Time Since Primaries, Romney Has an Edge," by Jim Rutenberg and Marjorie Connelly : "[T]he poll showed a significant shift in opinion about Mr. Obama's handling of the economy, with 39 percent now saying they approved and 55 percent saying they disapproved. In the Times/CBS poll in April, when the economy seemed to have momentum, 44 percent approved and 48 percent disapproved. ... Forty-five percent say they would vote for Mr. Romney if the election were held now and 43 percent say they would vote for Mr. Obama. When undecided voters who lean toward a particular candidate are included, Mr. Romney has 47 percent to Mr. Obama's 46 percent.

"[I]t is the first time Mr. Romney has shown a numeric edge in the Times/CBS poll since he emerged from the primaries as the presumptive nominee. Mr. Obama had a three-point advantage in March. The two were each favored by 46 percent in April."

--Grafs 21, 22 of the Times story: 'The poll includes a drop in Mr. Obama's favorability ratings, with 36 percent saying they viewed him favorably and 48 percent saying they did not. In April, 42 percent expressed a favorable opinion of him and 45 percent an unfavorable one. But that change may have been affected by a reordering of this particular set of questions, which at this point in general election cycles are typically placed near the top of the survey. During the primary season, the questions about favorability were placed lower on the survey after queries about presidential job approval and other topics.' http://nyti.ms/LzFiCb

MORE BAIN PAIN - L.A. Times A1, below fold, "Bain started quietly with foreign capital," by Joseph Tanfani, Melanie Mason and Matea Gold: "When Mitt Romney launched Bain Capital in 1984, he struggled at first to raise enough money ... Old-money families like the Rothschilds turned down the young Boston consultant. So he and his partners tapped an eclectic roster of investors, raising more than a third of their first $37-million investment fund from wealthy foreigners. Most of the foreign investors' money came through corporations registered in Panama, then known for tax advantages and unusual banking secrecy.

"Massachusetts corporate filings and other public records, show that Bain Capital was enmeshed in the largely opaque world of international high finance from its very inception. The documents don't indicate any wrongdoing, and experts say that such financial vehicles are common for wealthy foreign investors. But the new details come as President Obama has criticized Romney for profiting from Bain Capital's own offshore investment entities, which are unavailable to most Americans. ... About $9 million came from rich Latin Americans, including powerful Salvadoran families living in Miami during their country's brutal civil war. ...
"The group included some of El Salvador's wealthiest people ... Other investors included Frank Kardonski, who co-founded the Panama Stock Exchange, and Diego Ribadeneira, now Ecuador's ambassador to Peru. Most of the money ... was through corporations set up in Panama with names such as Velof Trust, Jolla and Universal Selling Co." http://lat.ms/Q7ie0g

TOP TALKER - WHO COULD BE THE DEMS' KOCHS?: "The left's lost donors," by Maggie Haberman and Emily Schultheis : "Democrats have spent months praying for the liberal answer to Sheldon Adelson and the Koch brothers. ... With Republican outside groups on course to [spend $1 billion] for the cycle, the pro-Obama super PAC Priorities USA Action is finding itself badly outgunned. Mega-donors either say privately they've been turned off by the White House's disdain for outside spending or by the president's personal aversion to the constant care and feeding of contributors ... [B]ased on a review of past donors and interviews with bundlers and others in Democratic donor circles, here are the top eight pro-Obama families and individuals who could write multimillion-dollar checks to Priorities but haven't:

"1) Penny Pritzker . Of all the people who are avoiding the super PACs this cycle, Pritzker is the most prominent as the former finance chairman of Obama's 2008 campaign. ... As of March 2012, she was worth $1.8 billion, according to Forbes. The family acquired its wealth selling assets to the Warren Buffett-operated Berkshire Hathaway and by creating the Hyatt hotel chain. ...

2) George Soros ... has had little desire, sources said, to contribute to super PACs, which invariably are focused on negative ads ...

3) The Crown family [of Chicago] ... Lester Crown's major issue is Israel, and it's unclear if he's satisfied with Obama on this topic at this point. In an interview with The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg in 2010, ... Crown said, ... 'I would feel more comfortable if I knew that they had the will to use military force, as a last resort' ...

"4) Peter Lewis. ... Progressive Insurance chairman ... In an email to POLITICO, Jennifer Frutchy, a Lewis adviser, said: 'He made a personal decision after spending tens of millions of dollars on the 2004 election not to spend his funds on advertising, preferring to build the progressive infrastructure - the think tanks, media monitoring, leadership training' ...

5) Neil Bluhm. Another Chicagoan, the casino magnate and real estate investor is co-chairing the president's campaign finance committee. ...

"6) Warren Buffett. The Oracle of Omaha made clear in May that, on principle, he has no plans to help Priorities USA Action. 'I don't want to see democracy go in that direction,' Buffett was quoted by Bloomberg News telling his annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting. ...

7) Eric Schmidt. The Google executive chairman ... has been a major donor and campaign adviser to Obama. ...

8) Tim Gill. The LGBT activist and Quark Inc. software maverick ... has been generous with causes he cares about. One of them has been the fight to legalize gay marriage." http://politi.co/NBvGne

PRESIDENTIAL FUNDRAISING HITS $1 BILLION MARK: The total fundraising in the presidential race this year has now topped a whopping $1 billion, USA Today reports. From the story: "Less than four months until Election Day, the battle for the White House already has crossed the $1 billion mark - as the presidential candidates, political parties and the two super PACs closely aligned with President Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney race to collect political cash. The biggest spending is yet to come in a presidential race that could hit an eye-popping $3 billion, said Bob Biersack of the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign money. http://usat.ly/OdpnXu

FOREIGN POLICY TAKES A BACK BURNER: The New York Times looks at the way the campaign has put some of the Obama administration's foreign policy initiatives on hold. "With the White House in campaign mode nearly 24/7, many of the administration's biggest foreign policy initiatives have been pushed to the back burner until after the election," the story says. "From Syria and Iran to nuclear arms reductions and peace talks with the Taliban, the administration is mostly playing for time, trying to avoid decisions that could land the president in trouble or be exploited by his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney." http://nyti.ms/MNPUIH

[Ephilant]

Batman conspires against Romney!

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFA-e0R6l_s"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFA-e0R6l_s[/ame]

Some people are indeed brain dead....

[Holly]

Colorado is one of the least restrictive states for the acquisition of assault weapons and ammunition by members of the public. Barack Obama's White House pledges to safeguard the Second Amendment in its first official response to the deaths of at least 12 people in a mass shooting at a new Batman movie screening in suburban Denver. In an election year, the vainglorious president is running scared of the National Rifle Association.

http://www.dailydemocrat.com/ci_2113...ol-stir-little

[Count Bobulescu]

Anyone who thinks either Obama or Romney will try to make gun control, or lack thereof, an issue in the Presidential campaign, simply doesn’t understand modern American politics. Like abortion, gay rights, school prayer, etc. gun control is a wedge issue that the hardcore partisans on either side care deeply about, but on which the great mass of people on both sides are equally deeply ambivalent.

Nothing happened after a member of Congress was shot, nothing will happen now. The Congressional calendar would also frustrate any attempt to do anything before the election. The lame duck session in November, or the next Congress will be the time to do something, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

The candidates’ positions on gun control, which has been a back burner issue for years now, also seem unlikely to change.

“I’m not going to take away your guns,” Obama promised in September 2008. However, he advocated closing the loophole that allows for gun purchases without background checks at gun shows and for reinstating the assault weapons ban.
Obama kept his promises to gun owners but not to gun control advocates, who have been frustrated by the White House’s lack of interest.

The president signed bills allowing guns in national parks and on Amtrak. He has not pushed for the reinstatement of the assault weapons ban — and Attorney General Eric Holder was reportedly chastised for suggesting he would. Nor has he moved towards closing the gun-show loophole.

In his remarks after the 2011 shooting in Tucson, Arizona, Obama barely mentioned gun control, and it did not come up in his State of the Union weeks later. That March, Obama wrote an Arizona Daily Star op-ed calling for better background checks. But the tragedy did not inspire serious gun-control initiatives.
Yet the National Rifle Association is still ardently anti-Obama and gun enthusiasts still view him very negatively.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...html#pagebreak

[Count Bobulescu]

Journalists are being used as props in political advertising.

“When people see political ads, they think someone’s lying to them,” said Mark McKinnon, an ad maker who worked with Mr. Rove on both of George W. Bush’s winning presidential campaigns.
“We try really hard to get credible third-party messengers to deliver facts,” Mr. McKinnon explained. “A fact coming from you is much more believable than a fact coming from us.”
As flattering as that might sound to journalists, our own credibility is hardly setting industry records right now. Which is precisely why journalists worry about the additional baggage of becoming associated with campaign advocacy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/20/us...s-chagrin.html

Mitt Romney and the Republican National Committee have grown a more than $25 million cash advantage over President Obama, according to just-filed Federal Election Commission reports.
Romney; who trailed Obama by $90 million at the end of March, now leads the incumbent president $170 million to $144 million in cash on hand, thanks to a surge in GOP fundraising and heavy spending by the Democrats early in the 2012 campaign.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pisrc=nl_pmfix

SILVER: Presidential polls don’t break towards challengers. “There are certainly some good reasons to think that the polls could break toward Mitt Romney. For instance, many polls out now were conducted among registered voters; when pollsters switch over to likely voter polls instead — which assess each voter's probability of actually casting a ballot on Nov. 6 — it is likely that Mr. Romney will gain a point or two. And Barack Obama obviously has a lot of weight to bear from the lukewarm economic recovery. But one hypothesis you should find less persuasive is the notion that the polls will break toward Mr. Romney just because he is the challenger. It is often asserted that this is the case — that the polls move toward the ‘out-party’ candidate rather than the incumbent. But in my view the empirical evidence — although it is somewhat ambiguous — mostly argues against this idea.” Nate Silver in The New York Times.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...wpisrc=nl_wonk

OBAMA TALKER-CHICAGO BURN RATE WORRIES SOME DEMOCRATS: "The Obama campaign has been spending heavily on payroll, television ads and polling for months, hoping to tarnish [Romney] in the eyes of voters at an early stage of the general-election showdown," the Wall Street Journal's Peter Nicholas and Danny Yadron report. "But some Democrats worry that the overhead built by the Obama camp over the past 15 months will prove impossible to sustain. Unless fundraising picks up, the Obama campaign may enter the season's final stretch confronting hard choices: paring salaries, scaling back advertising or pulling out of swing states in a bid to control costs, these Democrats say. The president spent twice as much as Mr. Romney in June , as his campaign purchased more TV ads, paid more than twice as many employees and spent millions of dollars on public-opinion polls, federal records show. June was the second month in a row that Mr. Obama's campaign dipped into the red, while the president was outraised by the Romney campaign. In May and June combined, the Obama campaign spent 20% more than it took in, records show." Astute observers mocked this story overnight because the lead quote is from Doug Schoen. But also quoted supporting the premise: an unnamed former Obama White House aide, South Carolina Democratic Chairman Dick Harpootlian and Howard Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi. http://on.wsj.com/NXZjmB

ROMNEY TALKERS-

WAPO FRAMES ROMNEY AS MAN OF THE WORLD: Jason Horowitz raises the curtain on Romney's foreign trip with a lengthy piece about the candidate's time abroad. "His 21/2-year mission to France shaped his Mormonism. The internationalism at Harvard accented his education. His foreign travel as a young consultant, the early Central American investment in Bain Capital and the windfall he received from deals in Italy all boosted his signature business. He uses his chairmanship of the troubled 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, literally the world's games, as Exhibit A to make his case as a turnaround artist." http://wapo.st/MyMJJe

AP SAYS ROMNEY HAD MIXED RECORD ON IMMIGRATION: "Romney adopted a mixed bag of immigration policies during his four years as Massachusetts governor," the wire service's Steve LeBlanc and Andrew Miga write. "He fought against in-state college tuition rates for illegal immigrants, pushed hard to give state troopers expanded powers to arrest those in the country illegally, and championed English-only classes for bilingual education students. Yet Romney also showed a more compassionate side, personally interceding on behalf of an immigrant teacher facing deportation whose case drew heavy news coverage across the state. In 2004, Romney signed into law a requirement that immigration judges warn non-citizen defendants that pleading guilty to certain crimes could ultimately lead to their deportation. Romney has recommended more funding for English as a Second Language programs because he wanted to help newcomers to this country become better equipped to compete for jobs by learning English, his campaign noted. Romney's varied record on immigration after being elected governor in 2002 could help shed light on how he'd tackle the issue if he becomes president." Eric Fehrnstom has lead quote. Looks like pretty widespread pickup: http://bit.ly/MVQe8r.

LIGHTER CLICKS -

POLITICIANS, from Dan Quayle to John Conyers to Bob McDonnell and Mary Landrieu, reminisce on their first run for elected office in a Washington Post Magazine feature: http://wapo.st/OiJOSV.

HUGO CHAVEZ, the Venezuelan dictator, attacks his main challenger in the coming election by comparing him to Romney and saying both care only about the rich: http://bit.ly/MDD1XS.

WILL FERRELL releases a new trailer for "The Campaign," his comedy about a congressional race: http://bit.ly/MVzZbq.

ROB MCKENNA, the Republican frontrunner in the race for Washington State governor, seems to be channeling Rick Snyder in his goofy but wholesome first ad, which went up over the weekend and highlights his family: http://bit.ly/SPUJXo.

THE DUGGARS, that reality TV show family that trailed Rick Santorum on the campaign trail, endorsed Randy Hekman in the Republican primary for Senate in Michigan. He is not even a factor in the race between Pete Hoekstra and Clark Durant: http://bit.ly/PzmZNT.

ROSEANNE BARR, the washed-up celebrity who failed in her bid to win the Green Party's presidential nomination, is being roasted on Comedy Central next month. In advance, the cable channel releases a one-minute video with one-liners from her in which she makes fun of Ron Paul, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton and Chris Christie: http://on.cc.com/NLvYL9.

CARL FORTI gets profiled on A1 of the Sunday New York Times. Tom Reynolds likens him to Gatling gun, in a quote given before the Colorado shooting: http://nyti.ms/NJ6duZ.

MIKE COTE, the guy who played Romney in that Santorum Rambo ad, is hoping to cash in as a Romney impersonator. The Boston Herald profiles him: http://bit.ly/OaG4ot.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You're not going to draw me into your politics - I have enough of mine. We can exchange notes about mine off camera." - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ducks questions about Romney's trip to Israel on Fox News Sunday. http://politi.co/NVtevR

[Count Bobulescu]

Poll of Polls

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

Just 6 percent of Americans say there is a good chance they will change their mind about their pick in the 2012 presidential race — a reflection of the divided nature of American politics and the few voters who are actually persuadable.
Another 13 percent say that it’s possible but unlikely that they will change their minds.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pisrc=nl_pmfix

Analysis: Nine Things We Learned From Obama's FEC Report
Every month, President Obama's campaign dumps an incredible amount of data on the Federal Election Commission's servers, offering a glimpse into one of the largest political operations ever mounted. We sifted through the 243,000 records contained in this month's report so you don't have to, as Reid Wilson writes for National Journal. Here's what we learned.

http://decoded.nationaljournal.com/2...ed-from-ob.php

THIS SEQUESTER FIGHT COULD REALLY BREAK THROUGH: It's been a Washington story so far, but we're getting the sense from operatives and key players in swing states that the fight over automatic cuts could really blow up in the months before the election. The argument about what to do fits with the larger debate President Obama wants to have about the role of government, and the idea of looming cuts that could jeopardize an already lackluster recovery ties in easily with the more salient issues of "the economy" and "government spending" that always rate as top concerns in polling.

ROMNEY CALLS FOR HALT TO AUTOMATIC DEFENSE CUTS: "This sequestration related to defense spending, in particular, has to be put off," the Republican nominee told CNBC's Larry Kudlow in an interview yesterday during which he also pushed for a one-year-minimum extension of the Bush tax cuts. "And we ought to give, whichever president is going to be elected, at least six months or a year to get those policies in place. So let's extend where we are now as opposed to looking at a cliff in January that would cause, well, real distress for the economy and perhaps lead to the kind of outcome you suggest." Transcript: http://bit.ly/Mkr7Od.

OBAMA HIT BACK IN YESTERDAY'S VFW SPEECH: "Let's stop playing politics with our military," the president said. "There are a number of Republicans in Congress who don't want you to know that most of them voted for these cuts. Now they're trying to wriggle out of what they agreed to do. Instead of making tough choices to reduce the deficit, they'd rather protect tax cuts for some of the wealthiest Americans even if it risks big cuts in our military." http://politi.co/OqRxg8

HE'S MAKING RISKY GAMBLE TO NOT HIGHLIGHT HIS RESUME: "To some degree, the Republican's campaign has walled off three critical aspects of what makes Mitt Mitt - his Mormon faith and good deeds, details of his experience running Bain Capital and his signature achievement as Massachusetts governor," Maggie Haberman writes : a kind of self-imposed paralysis on biographical messaging that some observers, including Republicans, say may wound his campaign in an era in which voters want to achieve a kind of unprecedented intimacy with their candidates. Right at the moment voters are starting to get to know him, he isn't telling them his story. It's a risky strategy for a candidate in an era of more is more. This approach is by design - Romney is seeking to make the race almost entirely a referendum on President Obama...Yet voters crave personal connections with candidates - George W. Bush was the person people wanted to drink a beer with, Bill Clinton felt voters' pain - and political watchers and some Romney supporters believe the Republican is blowing an opportunity to shine a light on the more appealing parts of his background." http://bit.ly/O3ADZT

STILL-CLOSED OLYMPIC ARCHIVES UNLIKELY TO SHED LIGHT ON ROMNEY LEADERSHIP: "People searching for insight on how Salt Lake's 2002 Winter Games operated and how Mitt Romney led the effort may be disappointed when 1,100 boxes of Olympic archives are made public next month, according to the project director," the Salt Lake Tribune reports in a story that fuels the desired Chicago narrative that Romney is secretive. "'I think they will have no answers,' said Elizabeth Rogers, curator of manuscripts at the University of Utah Marriott Library. The records that the Salt Lake Olympic Committee turned over to the University of Utah do not appear to contain things like meaningful budget documents, internal memos, executive calendars and other records that might shed light on the internal workings of the Olympic organization, Rogers said." http://bit.ly/NOCyAx

MITT RAISED $10 MILLION ON CALIFORNIA SWING: That's the haul from four fundraisers. http://huff.to/NSHsdd

HITTING ON THE JOBS COUNCIL - MITT'S MESSAGE IN CALIFORNIA: "I would suggest having more meetings like this and with his Jobs Council and maybe with you guys or with his Jobs Council," the governor said at a business roundtable. "It's like, 'Why won't he meet with his Jobs Council?' These are some of the largest employers in the country. They have perspectives on what it would take for them to hire people." Video: http://mi.tt/MEZ3JO. The POLITICO story that gave fodder for the new line: http://politi.co/QvblFd . A CNN story on the sign "We Did Build It" sign that they debuted at the event: http://bit.ly/P9sSAk.

Combined, these four dozen donors have provided $130 million of the $308 million super PACs have raised this cycle (more than 40 percent) — a reflection of how much these outside groups are funded by extremely wealthy donors.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...pisrc=nl_pmfix

PEW - VOTERS FEEL LIKE THEY ALREADY KNOW ENOUGH ABOUT THE CANDIDATES: "When it comes to Barack Obama, 90% say they already pretty much know what they need to know about him; just 8% say they need to learn more. A substantial majority (69%) also says they already mostly know what they need to know about Mitt Romney. Only about a quarter (28%) say they need to learn more to get a clear impression of Romney. Combining these two questions, fully two-thirds of voters say they already know as much as they need to about both presidential candidates...Democratic voters (56%) say they want to hear more about Romney's tax returns...By comparison, 35% of independents and just 18% of Republicans want to hear more about Romney's tax returns." http://bit.ly/QD7l5A

SOME TOP 2008 DONORS CAN'T HELP OBAMA BECAUSE HE APPOINTED THEM: "When President Obama named Hillary Rodham Clinton secretary of state after the 2008 election, he turned a rival into a loyalist. But he also lost Mrs. Clinton as one of the most popular Democratic fund-raisers for his re-election effort, since the nation's chief diplomat is not allowed to engage in campaigning," Mark Landler writes in the New York Times, a variation of a story that has been written every four years. "The same restriction applies to the State Department's ambassadors around the world, nearly two dozen of whom were fervent supporters of Mr. Obama in 2008, raising tens of millions of dollars for his first presidential campaign. He rewarded these backers with coveted diplomatic appointments to London, Paris, Tokyo and other capitals. Now, as federal employees, they are legally barred from reopening their gilt-edged contact lists. It is one of the few handicaps of incumbency." http://nyti.ms/M8nNtX

LIGHTER CLICKS -

A TAMPA STRIP CLUB has hired a Sarah Palin lookalike and spent $1 million on renovations in advance of the Republican National Convention: http://bit.ly/OdZd8W.

JON STEWART went after ABC's Brian Ross on his show last night for irresponsible reporting in the immediate aftermath of the Aurora shooting: http://bit.ly/NHP57z.

SIX CAST MEMBERS FROM "THE WIRE" will host an Obama fundraiser on August 15 in Martha's Vineyard: http://politi.co/OdAmlS.

JOE THE PLUMBER, running for Congress as a Republican in Ohio and certain to lose, spent $634 in campaign money at Jos. A. Bank in April and May. The Toledo Blade calls him out: http://bit.ly/PDGIf9.

A LIBERTARIAN CANDIDATE FOR CONGRESS in Kansas legally changed his name to Thomas Jefferson: http://bit.ly/SRDchr.

DAVID BECKHAM, the soccer player, sent Obama 50 pairs of boxers: http://bit.ly/LKIye2.

JOE BIDEN quoted extensively from poet Williams Yeats in a somber speech to police officers yesterday that praised the first responders in Colorado: http://yhoo.it/SRCOzz.

ELTON JOHN tells Jon Karl that George W. Bush has done more to fight AIDS than any other president. He also loves the ABC newsman's glasses: http://yhoo.it/NHT9op.

BEAU BIDEN is finally stepping onto the national stage. Isaac Dovere goes to Delaware: http://politi.co/Osihwy.

THE LATEST SEARCH for Amelia Earhart's plane, which crashed 75 years ago this month somewhere in the Pacific Ocean, has failed. A $2.2 million expedition looking for wreckage did not find any: http://fxn.ws/MFa79V.

THE HILL posts its annual "50 Most Beautiful" list. The full package: http://bit.ly/MW4f6S.

MATT DAMON expects Obama to be reelected, but he's not as big a supporter as he once was: http://bit.ly/NuCSpr.

TODD PALIN appears in a trailer for NBC's new reality show "Stars Earn Stripes": http://bit.ly/MWeuIm.

ROBERT DUVALL is hosting a fundraiser for Romney on Sept. 6 at his horse country home: http://bit.ly/O8gT7q.

OBAMA has recorded ads in the West Wing, something Republicans (but not George W. Bush) did as well: http://abcn.ws/M8pUhv.

STEPHEN COLBERT made fun of Fox News' Shepherd Smith with a glowing faux-tribute: http://bit.ly/M8qtrx.

JON STEWART joked about problems London is having in the run up to the Olympics: http://bit.ly/Q1SMno. He also made fun of the Chick-fil-A: http://gaw.kr/NWOTzS.

THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA has a Rare Book School that every bibliophile in America will want to go to after reading this NYT story: http://nyti.ms/LKNdfR.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I have been incensed at the vitriolic assaults on the Chick Fil-A company because the CEO, Dan Cathy, made comments recently in which he affirmed his view that the Biblical view of marriage should be upheld." - Mike Huckabee encourages those on his email list to eat chicken August 1 http://bit.ly/MYmibU