US Presidential Election 2012

[Count Bobulescu]

From now until the end of January polling will focus more on the individual early states, as opposed to the broad national trends. The results from the early states, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida, have the capacity to exercise outsize influence on the national trends.

There are new and impressive/surprising numbers for Gingrich in three of the four early states. This is clearly the most substantive challenge to Mitt so far. Gingrich appears to be rising at just the right time. It remains to be seen if he can maintain that momentum. He has many flaws, grandiosity chief among them. Gingrich leads Romney comfortably in Iowa, 33-20, with Paul at 17, and everyone else in single digits.

In N.H. Romney’s stronghold, his lead is reduced to 35-26, with Paul at 17. In October Romney was 27 points clear of his nearest rival.
In S.C. its Gingrich –Romney 43-20. Single digits the field.
And in Florida 48-25.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2012-...polls-20111207

Florida closes the month with its delegate-rich Jan. 31 primary, and nearly half of likely primary voters are behind Gingrich, who leads Romney 48 percent to 25 percent. No other candidate scores higher than 5 percent in the Sunshine State.

Caveat! On average, almost sixty percent of likely voters say they are still prepared to change their mind before voting.

[Count Bobulescu]

Re the guy referenced @#.338 above.The guys wife, she a retired administrative law judge, and serving County Councilor, who achieved notoriety for stuffing $78K in her undies, got 12 months today. Hubby got 7 years on Tuesday.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...g.html?hpid=z3

Prosecutors said Leslie Johnson refused to allow federal agents armed with a search warrant into her Mitchellville home in November 2010 while she tore up a $100,000 check from a developer, hid $79,600 in her underwear, tried to sneak out of her house undetected, and then lied to federal agents who arrested her.

Back to Prez politics,

At the last presidential debate there were eight candidates on stage, then Herman Cain dropped out. Then an obscure news outfit called Newsmax had the bright idea of hosting a debate in Iowa just 6 days before the Caucuses. To spice things up they invited Donald Trump to be the Moderator. Newt, and Rick Santorum immediately declared they would participate. Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman just as quickly said no, citing the possibility of a circus. Then after a few days Mitt said no, then Perry and finally Bachmann said no. So, the Donald throws a debate and almost no one shows. Sweet! There's another debate on ABC Saturday night.

[Holly]

Rick Perry has a swipe at gays and boasts of his Christianity.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V78ReJbjdxo"]Rick Perry Anti-Gay Ad - "Strong" - COMMENTS ALLOWED, PLEASE SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS - YouTube[/ame]

[Count Bobulescu]

Rick Perry has a swipe at gays and boasts of his Christianity.

Rick Perry Anti-Gay Ad - "Strong" - COMMENTS ALLOWED, PLEASE SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS - YouTube

Yeah, Perry got killed for that one. He is becoming increasingly desperate. The only thing he has going for him at the moment is money in the bank.

[TotalMayhem]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtFzuGeCfkc"]Rick Perry - "Jacket" ("Strong" Parody) - YouTube[/ame]

[Binn Beal]

Newt Gingrich has come out with a great line in hopes of winning over the Jewish lobby. He says that the Palestinians are a 'made-up' nationality and don't really exist - unlike the USA which has always existed.

[Holly]

Newt Gingrich has come out with a great line in hopes of winning over the Jewish lobby. He says that the Palestinians are a 'made-up' nationality and don't really exist - unlike the USA which has always existed.

Most Americans would have no problem accepting this nonsense and that is Gingrich's strength; he says what most people in America want to hear. He is a skilled salesman without any principles except his hawkish nationalism.

[Count Bobulescu]

Most Americans would have no problem accepting this nonsense and that is Gingrich's strength; he says what most people in America want to hear. He is a skilled salesman without any principles except his hawkish nationalism.

Holly, I’ll give you that Gingrich is a good salesman. But I’ll dispute that “most” Americans would agree with the sentiment he expressed. US may “favor” Israel over the Palestinians, but it’s a big leap to go from that, to the sentiment expressed by Newt. Islam is currently the fastest growing religion in the US. Numbers are projected to rise from 2.5m in 2010, to 6.5M in 2030. Muslim share of legal immigration continues to rise. Ask yourself, why would more and more Muslims want to come to a country that some would say is at war with Islam? One reason, they integrate easier into US society than European.
Dubaya, (not my best pal), in one of his better moments, gave a conciliatory speech at the Islamic Center of Wash DC, (right in the heart of Embassy Row), just 3-4 days after 9-11.

http://www.theislamiccenter.com/

[Count Bobulescu]

Newt Gingrich has come out with a great line in hopes of winning over the Jewish lobby. He says that the Palestinians are a 'made-up' nationality and don't really exist - unlike the USA which has always existed.

There’s another debate tonight on ABC at 9 Eastern. Gingrich is sure to come under fire for that, at least from the Mods. Will be interesting to see if any of the other candidates take a swipe. The debate is taking place in Iowa where “Christian Conservatives” predominate. Who do you hate more, the Jews or the Muslims? Huntsman has been excluded from this debate because he has failed to poll above five percent in Iowa.
You can watch it live or later here and here.


http://www.2012presidentialelectionn...bate-schedule/


http://abcnews.go.com/

[Kev Bar]

Yeah, Perry got killed for that one. He is becoming increasingly desperate. The only thing he has going for him at the moment is money in the bank.

I'm Rick Perry. And I want to be Ronald Reagan but I ain't the senile excuse"

[Kev Bar]

Newt Gingrich has come out with a great line in hopes of winning over the Jewish lobby. He says that the Palestinians are a 'made-up' nationality and don't really exist - unlike the USA which has always existed.

I thought that old pup had been put down.

[Count Bobulescu]

Saturday night’s debate did not produce a lot of fireworks. Early analysis was that Newt went in as the new frontrunner, and came out relatively unscathed. He scored a nice zinger on Romney by stating that the only reason Romney was not a career politician is that he got beaten in a Senate race by Ted Kennedy. He dealt adroitly with accusations that he was a wife cheater. Romney probably didn’t help himself by offering to place a $10,000 bet with Rick Perry. 99% of Americans can’t afford to place a $10,000 bet. The debate did begin to crystallize that it’s becoming a Mitt v. Newt fight, with Ron Paul clearly moving into third place. My own view is that Newt will do better in the short term, will likely win Iowa, but Mitt will out over the long haul.

[Count Bobulescu]

Oops! Mutiny in the Leper Colony. The Donald might not attend the debate he is supposed to moderate. This is hilarious.

The Newsmax-hosted, Donald Trump-moderated debate is going forward, according to the conservative website. But Trump himself has been openly questioning whether he can host a debate when only two candidates have committeed to actually attending.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...er=rss&emc=rss

Mr. Coz said he spoke with Mr. Trump on Thursday night, and had every reassurance that he was still planning to participate. “As we sit here right now,” Mr. Coz said, “it’s going ahead.”
But Mr. Trump, the reality star and real estate mogul, cast some doubt Friday about whether the debate would still happen in an interview with Fox News’s Megyn Kelly. “We’ll have to see,” he said. He made similar comments to Don Imus earlier in the day.
Mr. Trump’s spokeswoman did not return a request to clarify his remarks.
Whatever the outcome, the incident is a body blow to Mr. Trump’s credibility as a player in conservative politics. He often talks up his political influence with the kind of self-aggrandizing swagger that is his trademark.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...6hO_story.html
I

have to look into it,” Trump told Fox Business Network when asked whether he would host a two-candidate debate.
Trump was most indignant about Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann skipping out.
“She came up to see me four times. She would call me and ask me for advice,” Trump said. “She said if she wins, she would like to think about me for the vice presidency. Most importantly, I did a two-hour phone call for her with her people. ... And after all that, she announced she was not going to do the debate. It’s called loyalty. How do you do that? It’s amazing to me.”
Trump has said he might endorse a Republican but could make a third-party run himself.

While it’s generally accepted that Ron Paul has little to no chance of winning the Republican nomination, there is increasing speculation that he might run as a third party/Independent candidate. This is his third run, and for reasons of age, effectively his last chance. If he were to opt for that route, it would send more than shivers down the spine of the Republican party. Paul would likely split the Republican vote, making the re-election of Obama more likely. He would become the Ralph Nader of the right. Nader is credited with allowing Dubaya to beat Al Gore in Florida in 2000. When asked directly, Paul did not say he would, but left himself some wiggle room by refusing to explicitly rule it out.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...y.html?hpid=z5

Based on states’ results in 2000, 2004 and 2008, and on states’ previous votes for third-party candidates, and on current polling about the strength of potential Republican nominees in particular states, it is plausible to conclude that a Paul candidacy would have these consequences:
●It would enable Obama to carry two states he lost in 2008: Missouri (11 electoral votes), which he lost by 0.13 points, and Arizona (11), which he lost by 8.52 points to native son John McCain.
●It would enable Obama to again win four states he captured in 2008 and that the Republican nominee probably must win in 2012: Florida (29), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13).
●It would secure Obama’s hold on the following states he won in 2008 but that Republicans hope to take back next year: New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and New Hampshire (4).
At a minimum, a Paul candidacy would force the Republican nominee to spend time and money in places he otherwise might be able to economize both. And a Paul candidacy would make 2012 much easier for Obama than 2008 was. Now, reread Paul’s words quoted above, particularly these: “right now” and “in a month or two.”

When recently asked if he might mount an independent candidacy, he said: “I’m not thinking about it because, look, I’m not doing badly right now. . . . So we concentrate only on one thing: Keep moving up in the polls, and see how things come out in a month or two.”

Hope springs……..External!

[Count Bobulescu]

Excerpt from a political email. Emphasis supplied. Larry Sabato is a well respected academic political commentator. I've heard other commentators described as "the poor man's Larry Sabato". I should explain that from January 3, to March 31, delegates will be allocated to candidates on a P.R. basis. From April 1, it will be winner take all. Better explanation at the link.


PUNDIT PREP -- Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, "2012 Republican Race: The Field May Not Be Closed," by Rhodes Cook, Senior Columnist : "[T]he elongated layout of the nominating calendar this time provides the opportunity for a late-starting candidate to emerge. Should Mitt Romney stumble badly in the January events in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida, another establishment Republican could enter the race in early February and still compete directly in states with at least 1,200 of the 2,282 or so GOP delegates. Many of them will be up for grabs after April 1 when statewide winner-take-all is possible. Similarly, should non-Romney alternatives led by Newt Gingrich, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry fall flat in the January contests, there would be time for the conservative wing of the party to find a new champion to carry its banner through the bulk of the primary season.


"In some respects, the layout of the 2012 primary calendar resembles that in 1976, starting in the dead of winter with events in Iowa and New Hampshire and building to a crescendo with California in early June. That year, President Gerald Ford and former California Gov. Ronald Reagan battled delegate for delegate until Ford prevailed at the convention that summer in Kansas City. It was the most closely contested and longest-running Republican nominating contest in the last 40 years. ...

"Heading into Super Tuesday (March 6) , only 15% of the GOP delegates will have been chosen. The halfway mark in delegate selection will not come until later in the month, and for one candidate to acquire a nominating majority of roughly 1,142 delegates, it could take much, much longer. ... [T]here are arguably a few prominent Republicans ... who could mount a competitive, late-starting candidacy in 2012. These could include one of the establishment non-candidates who Republican elites pressured to enter the race earlier this year, such as Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Rep. Paul Ryan (WI), ex-Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (although Christie has already endorsed Mitt Romney). ... [I]f Romney gets off to a strong start in January's opening round, then there might be pressure on the right to enlist former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to pick up the anti-establishment baton." http://bit.ly/unR8mP


DNC POST-DEBATE VIDEO hits Gingrich as "The Original Tea Partier," with clips from the debate, and going back to 1995. Final frame says, "NEWT GINGRICH ... THREE DECADES OF TEA PARTY POLITICS." YouTube http://bit.ly/up8quq

[Count Bobulescu]

Ahem! For several reasons, (not least of which is to try to gauge how valid/interesting a thread is to other readers) I pay some attention to the page views on this thread, and will be pleased when it goes above 10,000.

But I’m not looking to artificially inflate page views. Unless I’m mistaken, seems there has been a recent rush of page views here, to push it above 10,000. Upfront disclosure, It was not my doing and I don’t condone it. Threads should survive on their merits.