Default by Greece Inevitable - Update : Heave to Oust Greece From the Eurozone

[Ephilant]

Barosso visiting Athens on Wed or Thurs hmmmm

Why me?

[ang]

Talks of further debt restructuring for Greece - The troika continue to set crazy non plausable targets for Greece and yet still refuse to LISTEN to economic reason aaarrrrggghhhh

(Reuters) - Greece is unlikely to be able to pay what it owes and further debt restructuring is likely to be necessary, three EU officials said on Tuesday, a cost that would have to fall on the European Central Bank and euro zone governments.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...86N11D20120724

[disability student]

I recall a Citibank economist Butler who spoke about Greece's orderly default by 1st of Jan 2013. Is that still on the cards??

[Ephilant]

I recall a Citibank economist Butler who spoke about Greece's orderly default by 1st of Jan 2013. Is that still on the cards??

I don't think it will be that orderly, and it wont be just Greece...

[C. Flower]

The Troika want substantial cuts - and pensions and benefits are targeted.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/tro...ts-560868.html

The poor can pay...

More and more, it is clear that the division in Europe is between haves and have nots, far more so than between nations.

[ang]

More and more, it is clear that the division in Europe is between haves and have nots, far more so than between nations.

Yes the biggest split in Europe is how to implement the Haves/Have nots policy Nationally without transparency or people pressure.

[Ephilant]

It looks like the bit of IMF blackmail has worked. Last week they made it clear that unles our debt sustainable again, the IMF would not contribute any longer to the "saving of Greece".
The famous "anonymous EU source" has now let it be know that the EU is considering a further haircut worth 70-100 billion Euro to Greek debt, aimed at bringing the debt down by 30% or to an almost 1005 of GDP. This would involve a haircut to bonds held by the European Central Bank, the national central banks and possibly the eurozone states.

Reuters reports that the cost of this second restructuring will be borne by the ECB and the 17 national central banks, a number of them including the ECB will also require recapitalization themselves.

I'm not sure if Merkel, Schauble & Co Inc is going to be very happy with this, but it is reproted that this deal could be announced as soon as next week.

[riposte]

It looks like the bit of IMF blackmail has worked. Last week they made it clear that unles our debt sustainable again, the IMF would not contribute any longer to the "saving of Greece".
The famous "anonymous EU source" has now let it be know that the EU is considering a further haircut worth 70-100 billion Euro to Greek debt, aimed at bringing the debt down by 30% or to an almost 1005 of GDP. This would involve a haircut to bonds held by the European Central Bank, the national central banks and possibly the eurozone states.

Reuters reports that the cost of this second restructuring will be borne by the ECB and the 17 national central banks, a number of them including the ECB will also require recapitalization themselves.

I'm not sure if Merkel, Schauble & Co Inc is going to be very happy with this, but it is reproted that this deal could be announced as soon as next week.

I think you might even get some opposition from Ireland for that Ephilant.

[Ephilant]

I think you might even get some opposition from Ireland for that Ephilant.

Here's the link to the Reuters article.

Samaras & Co is only a smoke screen.
By the time we're finished with the EU we'll have all our debt written off and they'll be paying us to stay in the Eurozone

[Ephilant]

Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal

The International Monetary Fund, facing discontent among its members about the huge sums it has lent to the euro zone, is pushing the currency bloc΄s governments to take steps to lighten the burden of the bailout loans they made to Athens, officials familiar with continuing discussions said.

The IMF pressure—which officials said has been clear in private discussions among Greece’s official lenders—comes in response to mounting evidence that Greece’s deep recession has thrown the country’s bailout program woefully off track from targets set earlier this year.

IMF officials maintain Greece’s debt must be reduced to “sustainable” levels before the fund releases billions more euros to keep Athens from running out of cash, some officials said. The most effective way to do this would be for Greece’s bailout lenders to forgive some of the debts Greece owes them.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...googlenews_wsj

[Klaus Kastner]

Here's the link to the Reuters article.

Samaras & Co is only a smoke screen.
By the time we're finished with the EU we'll have all our debt written off and they'll be paying us to stay in the Eurozone

What a great plan! It may even work. Work for Greece, that is. It certainly won't work for Greece's reputation.

Remember that one can never have the cake and eat it forever. One can't on one hand claim to be a proud nation of proud people, direct descendants from the most remarkable ancestors any nation ever had ("direct descendants of beautiful, tall, blond, wise people, representing perfection" - Nikos Dimou), while on the other hand behaving worse than a banana republic.

Nikos Dimou also wrote that "Greeks will always make every effort to widen the gap between wishful thinking and reality". Was he really all that wrong?

[riposte]

What a great plan! It may even work. Work for Greece, that is. It certainly won't work for Greece's reputation.

Remember that one can never have the cake and eat it forever. One can't on one hand claim to be a proud nation of proud people, direct descendants from the most remarkable ancestors any nation ever had ("direct descendants of beautiful, tall, blond, wise people, representing perfection" - Nikos Dimou), while on the other hand behaving worse than a banana republic.

Nikos Dimou also wrote that "Greeks will always make every effort to widen the gap between wishful thinking and reality". Was he really all that wrong?

It is interesting that you should place such a high premium on "reputation" Klaus.

Reputation and Honour are very closely aligned.

In some cultures reputation is so important that families murder their children in "honour killings" to preserve their reputations.

Meanwhile we have just witnessed a total absence of honour in every level of banking, business and government in the entire world.

The most important and largest banks in the world selling each other fraudulent "derivatives" with no concern for honour or reputation ..... and bankrupting the world in the process.

There's hardly a crooked practice that has ever been conceived by man that has not been engaged in by these "bankers" who now tell us we must pay their gambling debts..... to preserve our honour and reputation.

Meanwhile the starving population of Greece are to worry about their reputation and consider their obligations to their ancestors.

Some people are comfortable enough to pontificate about honour and reputation .... other people just want to deliver food to the mouths of hungry children.

Where would you place yourself Klaus?

[Ephilant]

Meanwhile we have just witnessed a total absence of honour in every level of banking, business and government in the entire world.
The most important and largest banks in the world selling each other fraudulent "derivatives" with no concern for honour or reputation ..... and bankrupting the world in the process.
There's hardly a crooked practice that has ever been conceived by man that has not been engaged in these "bankers" who now tell us we must pay their gambling debts..... to preserve our honour and reputation.

could not have said it better myself!

And talking about reputation, honour and all that. I was reading an article on ZeroHedge earlier re. Standard Chartered (laundering money for Iran, so it would seem...) and in the article is a mention of the NAR.
Now there's an interesting bunch of reputable, honourable businessmen. the NAR is the National Association of Realtors, the American version of the IPAV, Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers in Ireland.

The NAR are almost single handedly responsible for the Subprime mortgage crisis in the USA. Meaning, if commentators are indeed correct, these guys are really also responsible for the mess Europe is in.

Many experts believe that collusion with mortgage lenders, along with a monopoly on the MLS created prime conditions for Realtors to earn high-volumes of commission on borrowed money for inflated house values with no risk to the Realtor.

Furthermore, these boys are the biggest lobbying group in the US, having spent over $99 million on lobbying various politicians. Their key issue is the federal de-regulation of the financial services industry. In 2011 alone they spent over $22 million on lobbying.

And then, in this ZeroHedge article appears this little sentence:

In other news, the National Association of Realtors is still exempt from Anti-Money Laundering provisions, and as a result, continues to launder money for ill gotten billionaires, drug kings, petrodollars, and various other tyrants, despots and dictators in the form of US real estate.

What was that about honour, reputation and all that? What's good for the goose, is most definitely good for the gander in this case. With interest!

[Klaus Kastner]

Riposte

A very eloquent response! Puts me into a corner that I don't want to in. Anyway, I apparently asked for it..

As a former banker, I would subscribe to everything you say that has been happening for a couple of decades now in the scene of big finance (not in the scene of local and regional banking, I should add!). So much for that.

What I definitely object to is the following: "Some people are comfortable enough to pontificate about honour and reputation .... other people just want to deliver food to the mouths of hungry children", because it is demagoguery out of the text book.

My wife is Greek and we spend about half the year there. Other than Argentina, I have never lived in a country where one part of society lives so much at the expense of the other part; where the ruling class (however you want to define it) cares so little about the others; where that ruling class has taken the others for such a ride as the ruling class of Greece has since joining the EU 30 years ago.

Our last stay was from April-Juni this year. Now, I could spend my time in those parts of Thessaloniki where life and the people are miserable. Our apartment happens to be on the better side. A crisis? Not visible! Supermarkets with prices higher than those in Austria and full of shoppers. The same goes for utterly expensive boutiques downtown. Weekend traffic to Chalkididi (to visit summer homes) bumper-to-bumper. Any noticeable concern about the fact that over 20% of their compatriots are out of a job? Not noticeable.

I have lived through one major financial crisis in Chile and two more in Argentina. One could see the crisis at all corners of society (with the possible exception of a small ruling class). None of that in Greece.

I find understandable, but still utterly ridiculous to link Greece's financial problems to derivaties & Co. The Greek financial sector, only 3 years ago, had the great distinction of not being involved in any of the bubbles of the day like Ireland, Spain & Co. (such as sub-prime, real estate, Bernie Madoff, etc.). The trouble of the Greek economy throughout modernity has been its dependence on foreign funding for its own living standard. Before the Euro, limited access to foreign currency held that in check. Since the Euro, the Greek economy has spent about 50% more abroad than it earned abroad. The difference had to be covered with foreign debt. Once the flow of foreign funding slows down, the economy stutters. Once it stops, the economy stops. You can find all the answers in Greece's Balance of Payments.

A similar thing happened to Cuba once it was cut of from Soviet funding. I don't want to compare Greece with Cuba but will say this about Cuba (in contrast to Greece): the Cubas quickly recognized that they had to find foreign funding elsewhere to survive. Loans they couldn't really find then, so they looked - correctly so! - for foreign investment (which they got in the field of tourism, much from Canada). Greece, instead, is scaring foreign invstors away.

I attach two blogposts I have written about the issue of "banks" and "starvation", just in case you are really interested how I feel about that.

http://klauskastner.blogspot.co.at/2...-dealings.html

http://klauskastner.blogspot.co.at/2...nd-others.html

[MPB]

I referred to this in another thread.

Iris Estate Agents, were building the houses, selling the houses and acting as mortgage brokers.

Conflicts of interest all over the place and still no acknowledgement of this fact. As I said in the other thread, it would be interesting to find out how many politicians both national and local have an auctioneer in the family?