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Thread: East Antrim Constituency

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    Default East Antrim Constituency

    2007 Results



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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency



    Expect little change here except for an outside chance of the DUP taking a fourth seat at the expense of the UUP if the vote is up and the split exact.

    There is a solid Alliance seat here too but the once safe SDLP seat has gone with the rise of SF who might hope for little more than eclipsing their Nationalist rivals here for the first time.

    In order for a Nationalist to take a seat, they would need a unity candidate and possible one acceptable for Alliance preferences...not going to happen.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Confirmed candidates for May 2011

    Roy Beggs: UUP

    Stewart Dickson: Alliance Party

    Daniel Donnelly: Green Party

    David Hilditch: DUP

    Gordon Lyons: DUP

    Justin McCamphill: SDLP

    Rodney McCune: UUP

    Oliver McMullan: Sinn Fein

    Steven Moore: British National Party

    Gerardine Mulvenna: Alliance Party

    Alastair Ross: DUP

    Ruth Wilson: TUV

    Sammy Wilson: DUP
    Last edited by 5intheface; 18-04-2011 at 09:48 PM. Reason: Update
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Just read the IN analysis on this constituency. Apparently there is a debut for the BNP in Ireland here with their northern organiser Steve Moore running. I suppose the only one he'll affect is the TUV. Does most of the responsibility for this facist trend rest with Larne?

    The paper is giving good hope for a nationalist seat here (they would be biased though). They reckon that due to boundary changes swapping part of the Antrim Glens for a piece of Newtownabbey that the nationalist vote will increase and seeing as Unionists are repulsed by PSF, they will give SDLP a preference. Should be interesting who gets that final seat.

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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    Just read the IN analysis on this constituency. Apparently there is a debut for the BNP in Ireland here with their northern organiser Steve Moore running. I suppose the only one he'll affect is the TUV. Does most of the responsibility for this facist trend rest with Larne?

    The paper is giving good hope for a nationalist seat here (they would be biased though). They reckon that due to boundary changes swapping part of the Antrim Glens for a piece of Newtownabbey that the nationalist vote will increase and seeing as Unionists are repulsed by PSF, they will give SDLP a preference. Should be interesting who gets that final seat.
    Yes, would have to revise the prediction above based on those boundary changes. The 3 Glens wards include Cushendall and Cushendun which are overwhelmingly Nationalist but not exactly bandit country. The area leaving EA is Cloughfern which would have been very Loyalist.

    That must make it very likely that there is a Nationalist seat. The SDLP used to have a seat here with Danny O'Connor but in recent years that gap has closed with only a few dozen votes separating them at the last Westminster poll.(Below)

    Democratic Unionist Sammy Wilson 13,993 45.9 -1.0
    Conservatives and Unionists Rodney McCune[3] 7,223 23.7 -1.4
    Alliance Gerry Lynch [4] 3,377 11.1 -3.6
    Sinn Féin Oliver McMullan 2,064 6.8 +1.4
    SDLP Justin McCamphill 2,019 6.6 -0.8
    Traditional Unionist Voice Sammy Morrison[5] 1,826 6.0 +6.0

    SF would need to up their first preferences to stand a chance where transfers will be very few and far between. Just coming in ahead of the SDLP will not be enough.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    Just read the IN analysis on this constituency. Apparently there is a debut for the BNP in Ireland here with their northern organiser Steve Moore running. I suppose the only one he'll affect is the TUV. Does most of the responsibility for this facist trend rest with Larne?

    The paper is giving good hope for a nationalist seat here (they would be biased though). They reckon that due to boundary changes swapping part of the Antrim Glens for a piece of Newtownabbey that the nationalist vote will increase and seeing as Unionists are repulsed by PSF, they will give SDLP a preference. Should be interesting who gets that final seat.
    The swap between part of the glens for part of Newtownabbeywill help Steven Moore with his BNP ticket. He'll give any Nationalist, Independant or otherwise a run. [in my opinion]

    The thing is, moving South out of the Glens of Antrim into Newtownabbey you're trading a strong Nationalist vote for a potential extreme Unionist/Loyalist vote.

    Given that Newtownabbey is a hotbed for the UDA/UVF i predict that they are likely to shift votes towards the BNP.

    I say this because Moore himself is an ex Foreign Legion Soldier, served with the RIR/British Army and Loyalists working class youth throughout the 80's onwards were encouraged to join these forces by the then National Front [NF] before their split which incarnated the BNP.

    Moore's campaign and indeed the BNP's in the 6 Counties has been 30 years in the making.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Trow View Post
    The swap between part of the glens for part of Newtownabbeywill help Steven Moore with his BNP ticket. He'll give any Nationalist, Independant or otherwise a run. [in my opinion]

    The thing is, moving South out of the Glens of Antrim into Newtownabbey you're trading a strong Nationalist vote for a potential extreme Unionist/Loyalist vote.

    Given that Newtownabbey is a hotbed for the UDA/UVF i predict that they are likely to shift votes towards the BNP.

    I say this because Moore himself is an ex Foreign Legion Soldier, served with the RIR/British Army and Loyalists working class youth throughout the 80's onwards were encouraged to join these forces by the then National Front [NF] before their split which incarnated the BNP.

    Moore's campaign and indeed the BNP's in the 6 Counties has been 30 years in the making.
    But the areas joining the constituency are all very Nationalist whereas the area leaving it is the working class/militant Loyalist Cloughfern!
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    What sort of social characteristics are in this area? Like would the rural communities be fairly mixed between nationalist and unionists with the main urban centres staunchly unionist? I get the impression Larne and Carrickfergus are sh1tholes so is it a fairly disadvantged area as well, along with Newtownabbey...they seem to be environment in which BNP thrives.

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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    What sort of social characteristics are in this area? Like would the rural communities be fairly mixed between nationalist and unionists with the main urban centres staunchly unionist? I get the impression Larne and Carrickfergus are sh1tholes so is it a fairly disadvantged area as well, along with Newtownabbey...they seem to be environment in which BNP thrives.

    Carrick is fairly much a suburb of Belfast and more linked to the city than the rest of the constituency.

    Larne is very run down and the butt of many jokes to that efeect. Glenarm has always been in Larne Council area and is quite mixed so has had plenty of connection to Larne. Cushendall, Carnlough and Cushendun are true Glens and the Glens have always been quite insular but in reality, as much connected to Ballymena as they would be to Larne.

    The Glens were never strongly Republican, nothing like say, Dunloy further west.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by 5intheface View Post
    Carrick is fairly much a suburb of Belfast and more linked to the city than the rest of the constituency.

    Larne is very run down and the butt of many jokes to that efeect. Glenarm has always been in Larne Council area and is quite mixed so has had plenty of connection to Larne. Cushendall, Carnlough and Cushendun are true Glens and the Glens have always been quite insular but in reality, as much connected to Ballymena as they would be to Larne.

    The Glens were never strongly Republican, nothing like say, Dunloy further west.
    Yea, I've relatives near Glenravel, don't think that's in this constituency, but I wouldn't put them down as very republican.

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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by 5intheface View Post
    But the areas joining the constituency are all very Nationalist whereas the area leaving it is the working class/militant Loyalist Cloughfern!
    Many working class familes from Cloughfern/Shankill and beyond have relocated throughout East Antrim in recent years. The South East Antrim Brigade ''splits'' within Loyalist Factions [UDA/UVF] part of the cause.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    What sort of social characteristics are in this area? Like would the rural communities be fairly mixed between nationalist and unionists with the main urban centres staunchly unionist? I get the impression Larne and Carrickfergus are sh1tholes so is it a fairly disadvantged area as well, along with Newtownabbey...they seem to be environment in which BNP thrives.
    The further North along the East Antrim Coast you go it gets strong Nationalist/Republican. South of Larne towards Belfast it's Unionist and Co. Moving inland from the coast it's moderatley mixed. [that is, everyother farm is alternated between Unionist and Nationalist with little pockets of strength here and there.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    Yea, I've relatives near Glenravel, don't think that's in this constituency, but I wouldn't put them down as very republican.
    Glenravel, the 10th Glen, not known for its active service units. Presume it's North Antrim. Declan O'Loan, the SDLP MLA would be of Glenravel stock.

    We used to mock it as Priest-ridden stoopland which was a bit unfair, now Loughguile on the other hand.......

    You're relations aren't McIlhattons by any chance?
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by 5intheface View Post
    Glenravel, the 10th Glen, not known for its active service units. Presume it's North Antrim. Declan O'Loan, the SDLP MLA would be of Glenravel stock.

    We used to mock it as Priest-ridden stoopland which was a bit unfair, now Loughguile on the other hand.......

    You're relations aren't McIlhattons by any chance?
    You know I had to

    [ame="www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q-yb2P9hzUA"]YouTube - Christy Moore - McIlhatton[/ame]
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Quote Originally Posted by Cáthasaigh View Post
    That's off topic, put it in the North Antrim thread immediately!

    When my aunt married and moved to North Antrim in the late 50s, she was mad for trad music and the only place she could find a sessiun in the area was in an Orange hall. She told me she was sure she was the only Catholic there until a man in a trilby and spats introduced himself. McIlhatton.
    Last edited by 5intheface; 16-04-2011 at 10:04 PM.
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    Default Re: East Antrim Constituency

    Good craic above.
    Just to say..the BNP have power based themselves between Larne and Carrickfergus on the East Antrim Coast.

    Watched their Party Political Broadcast on TV. Some scarey looking pensioner banging on about Water charges and Hospitals, me thinks he needed a drink of water and a hospital bed. [part of the act perhaps]
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