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Thread: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

  1. #1
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    Default Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Early results from tallies suggest that Fine Gael have put in a very strong performance indeed in this general election. The collapse of the Fianna Fáil vote and the strong performance of independents and smaller parties has opened up a large gap between FG and its nearest competitors in the majority of constituencies. The party is poised to pick up new seats in many constituencies, getting two out of three in many places thus picking up FF's traditional 'winner's bonus', they may even take 3 in places like Dublin South, and it looks like four seats in Mayo. I haven't done a constituency-by-constituency analysis yet, but Fine Gael look to be within a whisker of an overall majority in the next Dáil, if not over that line. Personally, I can't say I'm over the moon about this, but them's the votes, and we'll all live.

    What do other PW posters think?
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    The word from RTE radio and television panellists is that they wont. They reckon it's FG/Lab.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post
    The word from RTE radio and television panellists is that they wont. They reckon it's FG/Lab.
    Perhaps, but I think it's very close. And there's a number of FG 'genepool' independents (Shane Ross defo and, whisper it loudly, Michael Lowry) out there for Inda to drool over. The next govt's identity is still up for grabs yet; the licensed pundits say FG/LAB but I think there's a chance of FG/IND or FG alone yet. Tonight will tell. We might even have to wait until tomorrow evening to find out.
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    I'm still going with FG & a motley crue of Indos for next Gov ...

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Personally I would have now preferred FG to have gone it alone.(Really don't believe it would have gone the distance)

    Maybe then Labour would realise we need a strong left in Irish politics.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ryder View Post
    Perhaps, but I think it's very close. And there's a number of FG 'genepool' independents (Shane Ross defo and, whisper it loudly, Michael Lowry) out there for Inda to drool over. The next govt's identity is still up for grabs yet; the licensed pundits say FG/LAB but I think there's a chance of FG/IND or FG alone yet. Tonight will tell. We might even have to wait until tomorrow evening to find out.
    Of course you're right to be cautious about the pundits predicts - they called it for the rainbow in 92 - but for FG/Ind to work FG would need no less than 80 seats while the tallies seem to be showing around 75.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post
    The word from RTE radio and television panellists is that they wont. They reckon it's FG/Lab.
    FG majority for definite so.

    I stopped listening to those drooling monkeys in RTÉ at the time of the Guarantee in 2008.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    DDP now saying that support ebbed from FG in Dublin over the last few days of the campaign. That may to an extent be down to Kenny's SuperCulchie image hurting them

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by ang View Post
    Personally I would have now preferred FG to have gone it alone.(Really don't believe it would have gone the distance)

    Maybe then Labour would realise we need a strong left in Irish politics.
    What do you think would have brought down an FG majority government?

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Did a constituency-by-constituency estimate while the RTÉ run-through was going on, and came up with a total of 75. However, it's early days yet, and maybe I was picking up influences from the radio. For FG lovers and haters, tonight will be tense.
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Phil Hogan claiming that the majority is possible because he believes that FF transfers will favour FG a lot more than any other party.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post
    Phil Hogan claiming that the majority is possible because he believes that FF transfers will favour FG a lot more than any other party.
    I'd say so, they will do much better than the early estimates of 72 seats.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Baron von Biffo View Post
    Phil Hogan claiming that the majority is possible because he believes that FF transfers will favour FG a lot more than any other party.
    He could be right there. FF and FG are ideologically and culturally quite close to each other. I remember talking to a diehard FF (no longer small) farmer from the Wesht late last year, and he had much more of an expressed antipathy to the Labour party than FG. Property-worshipping people will vote for property-worshipping parties.
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ryder View Post
    He could be right there. FF and FG are ideologically and culturally quite close to each other. I remember talking to a diehard FF (no longer small) farmer from the Wesht late last year, and he had much more of an expressed antipathy to the Labour party than FG. Property-worshipping people will vote for property-worshipping parties.
    Well, I'd imagine in rural areas and particularly with older voters they might be inclined to give both FF & FG preferences, if the Candidates are both local etc ...

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    Default Re: Is a Fine Gael Overall Majority On?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ryder View Post
    He could be right there. FF and FG are ideologically and culturally quite close to each other. I remember talking to a diehard FF (no longer small) farmer from the Wesht late last year, and he had much more of an expressed antipathy to the Labour party than FG. Property-worshipping people will vote for property-worshipping parties.
    Yep, Labour are detested here with FFers prefering blueshirts to them.

    I don't think it's as simple as property worshipping parties sticking together. A lot of rural people think Labour are a party of snobs exuding a D4 liberal spray of bullsh!t worthy of any muck spreader.

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