Irish National Opinion Polls and Election Results - 2008 - 2012 - the Full Picture

[C. Flower]

Updated today with the Red C Poll.
Since the General Election, the most dramatic change by far has been the increased attraction of Sinn Fein.

[C. Flower]

Just updated in the OP with the SPB Red C Poll. The new result is in green.

[C. Flower]

Just updated the OP with the IT Poll.

http://www.politicalworld.org/showpo...16&postcount=1

[Greengoddess]

I've updated the OP with today's Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes Poll.
The differences between it and the IT MRPI Poll a few days earlier are very substantial.

Yes. Perhaps one is a rogue!

Analysis from Adrian Kavanagh below:

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/05/14...012/#more-3399

[DCon]

Yes. Perhaps one is a rogue!

Analysis from Adrian Kavanagh below:

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/05/14...012/#more-3399

GG: Quick question.

Do the Labour party, and others, hierarchy care more about Opinion polls or the state of the Nation? In your opinion.

[Greengoddess]

GG: Quick question.

Do the Labour party, and others, hierarchy care more about Opinion polls or the state of the Nation? In your opinion.

I don't understand exactly what you are asking? Bit slow today

[DCon]

I don't understand exactly what you are asking? Bit slow today

What I am asking is if the people who run political parties (politicians and behind the scenes string pullers) care more about their electoral success and opinion polls, than whether or not Ireland is doing well/improving/following a sustainable path?

In your opinion

[Greengoddess]

What I am asking is if the people who run political parties (politicians and behind the scenes string pullers) care more about their electoral success and opinion polls, than whether or not Ireland is doing well/improving/following a sustainable path?

In your opinion

For some of them, but not all, the former. The Labour party is not homogenous. There are many whose ambitions/ fears are, to some degree, secondary to the national interest. We should give respect to those people. It is difficult to remain so in the face of extinction .
There are no heroes in Irish politics . There are others who are motivated purely by self interest ,(in all Parties) . I'll say no more about that. It is not clear to me anymore if it IS in the national interest for us to stay. We ( labour) have to begin to do things that will change the trajectory the country is on. I have read all the memoirs of Blair's advisers.( forget your opinions of Blair!) They all say it is the trajectory that matters, not the day to day vicissitudes. And that strategy must be underpinned by values . It is also interesting that EG resembles G Brown in some respects , ie , Brown at crucial moments ignored what was staring him in the face and followed the advice of self -interested advisors . To have used his own judgement would have meant paying attention to uncomfortable critiques.
Oh dear, I am probably going to be in all sorts of trouble now.

[C. Flower]

Just updated the OP.

[C. Flower]

Election Results (General Election and Post General Election results shown in blue - most recent poll shown in orange)

Most recent poll -

SBP/Red C Poll Sept 22: FG 32 (-), Lab 14 (-1), FF 18 (-), SF 18 (+2), ind 18 (-1)

[B]

General Election 25/2/2011 F F 17.4% FG 36.1% Lab 19.4% GP 1.8% SF 9.9% Ind 12.6% Others 2.6%

EU Election 5/6/2009 FF 24% FG 29% LAB 14 % GP 2% SF 11% I/OP 20%

Local Elections 5/6/2009 FF 25% FG 32% LAB 15% GP 2% SF 7% I/OP 18%

General Election 2007 FF 42% FG 27% LAB 10% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 9%

Exit Poll 2011 (RTE) RTE Exit Poll - FF 15.1%, FG on 36.1%, Lab 20%, Greens 2.7%, Ind/Other 15.5 %

Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes

20 May 2012 FG 33% (n/c) Lab 14% (+1) FF 15% (-1)SF 16% (-4) Green 5% (+3) Others 18% (+2)

26 Feb 2012 FG 32%, Lab 10%, FF 15%, SF 25%, Ind 18%

ST 4/09/2011 FG 44%, Lab 12%, FF 15%, SF 13%, Ind/Others 12%, GP 2%

Milward Brown Polls 2009-2011

Ind/MBL Poll 18/9/2011 - FG 40%, Lab 20%, SF 11%, FF 10%, ULA / Ind 17%, Greens 2%. - FF on 5% in Dublin

Ind/MBL poll 21/6/2011 FG 42% Labour 19% FF 16% SF 11% Ind/Other 13%

MBL 16/2/2011 FF 12% ( -4) FG 38% (+ 8 ) Lab 23% (-1)Gr 1% (-) SF 10% (-3) Ind/Other 16% (-1)

( Adrian Kavanagh Seat estimates based on Irish Ind-M B poll: FF 13, FG 78, LB 42M GP 0, SF 13, OTH 20 (10 'right-leaning' 10 left - 6 ULA)
MBL (Indo) 1/2/2011 FF 16%, FG 30%-4 Labour 24% GP 1%SF 13% +3 Ind 15%

MBL 30/1/2011 FF 16% FG 34% LAB 24% GP 1% SF 10% I/OP 15%

MBL 2/2/2011 FF 16% FG 30% LAB 24% GP 1% SF 13% I/OP 15%

MBL 23/9/2010 FF 22% FG 30% LAB 35% GP 2% SF 4% I/OP 8%

MB IMS 13/2/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 19% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 10%

MB IMS 27/2/2009 FF 25% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 10%


IRISH TIMES MRBI


IT IPSOS MRBI 28/5/2012 FG 32%(-1) Lab 10%(-3) FF 17% (+3) SF 24 (+3) G 2%(-) Ind 15% (-2)

IT IPSOS MRBI 19/4/2012 FG 33%(-3) Lab 13% (– 6) FF 14% (-1) SF 21% (+6) Ind 19% (+4) -- 73% dissatisfied with Gov.

IT MRBI 21/2/2011 FF 16% (+1); FG 37% (+4) Lab 19% (-5) SF 11% (-1) GP 2% (+1) and I/O 15% (0).

IT MRBI 2/2/2011 :FF 15%(-2) FG 33% (+3) Lab 24% (-1) SF 12% (-3) GP () Ind 15% (+4).


IPSOS MRBI

IPSOS MRBI 16/12/2010 FF17% FG 30% LAB 25% GP 2 % SF 15% I/OP 11%

IPSOS MRBI 30/9/2010 FF 24% FG 24% LAB 33% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 9%

IPSOS MRBI 11/6/2010 FF 17% FG 28% LAB 32% GP 3% SF 9% I/OP 11%

IPSOS MRBI 22/1/2010 FF 22% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 8% I/OP 11%


TNS MRBI


TNS MRBI 26/9/2009 FF 20% FG 31% LAB 25% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 11%

TNS-MRBI 3/9/2009 FF 17% FG 34% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 10% I/OP 12%

TNS-MRBI 29/5/2009 FF20% FG 36% LAB 23% GP 3% SF 8% I/OP 10%

TNS-MRBI 15/5/2009 FF 21% FG 38% LAB 20% GP3% SF 9% I/OP 10%

TNS-MRBI 13/2/2009 FF 22% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 9%

TNS-MRBI 14/11/2008 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 14% GP 4% SF 8% I/OP 13%

TNS MRBI 7/6/2008 FF 42% FG23% LAB 15% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 7%

TNS MRBI 16/5/2008 FF 42% FG 26% LAB 15% GP 4% SF 6% I/OP 7%

TNS MRBI 25/1/2008 FF 34% FG 31 LAB 12% GP 6% SF 8% I/OP 9%

TNS MRBI 2/11/2007 FF 33% FG 31% LAB 15% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 9%


RED C



[COLOR="rgb(255, 140, 0)"]SBP/Red C Poll Sept 22: FG 32 (-), Lab 14 (-1), FF 18 (-), SF 18 (+2), ind 18 (-1)

SBP / Red C poll 23rd June: FG 32% (+2), Lab 15% (nc), FF 18% (nc), SF 16% (-3), Ind/Gr/Oth 19% (+1)

SBP Red C Poll 13th May 2012: FG 29% (-3) SF 21% (+2) FF 19%(+2) Lab 13% (-1) Ind 18%/G/Other

SBP Red C Poll 28th April 2012 FG 32 (-2) SF 19 (+1), FF 17 (+1), Lab 14 (-1), IND 18 (+1)

SBP Red C Poll 3rd March 2012 FG: 30% (no change) S F: 18% (+1) F F 17% (-1) Lab: 16% (+2) Ind: 19% (-2)

Red CC (PP) 12/1/2012 Fine Gael 33%(+1), Labour 16%(+1%), Fianna Fail 17%(-1%), Sinn Fein 14%(-1%), Others 20% (-)

RED C Poll January 28 Red C Poll Jan 28th 2012 Fine Gael: 30% Independents: 21% Fianna Fail: 18% Sinn Féin: 17% Labour 14%

SBP Red C Poll 24/9/11 FG 33% (-8), Lab 16% (-3), FF 15% (-1), SF 15% (+4), Other 21% (+8)

SBP Poll 28/5/11 FG 41% Lab 19%FF 16% NC SF 11% NC IND & OTH 13%

SBP Poll 9/4/11 FG 39% Lab 18% FF 16% SF 11% Ind 16%
.............

RED C (PP) 23/02/2011 FF 15% FG 40% Lab 18% SF 10% G 2% Ind/Oth - 14%

RED C (SBP) 13/2/2011 FF: 15% (-2), FG: 38% (+3), LAB 20% (-2), SF: 10% (-3),GP: 3% (+1) I/OP: 14% (+3)

RED C (SBP) 6/2/2011: FG 35% +2 Labour 22% +1 FF 17% +1 SF 13% nc Ind 11% -4 Greens 2% nc


RED C 30/1/2011 FF 16% FG 33% LAB 21% GP 2% SF 13% I/OP 15%

RED C 7/1/2011 FF 14% FG 35% LAB 21% GP 4% SF14% I/OP 12%

RED C 19/12/2010 FF 17% FG 34% LAB 23% GP 2% SF 14% I/OP 10%

RED C 3/12/2010 FF 13% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 16% I/OP 11%

RED C 21/11/2010 FF 17% FG 33% LAB 27 % GP 3% SF 11 % I/OP 8% IMF/EU ARRIVE

RED C 24/10/2010 FF 18% FG 32% LAB 27% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 10%

RED C 26/10/2010 FF 24% FG 31% LAB 23% GP % SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 27/6/2010 FF 24% FG 33% LAB 27% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 6%

RED C 30/5/2010 FF 24% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 2/5/2010 FF 23% FG 33% LAB 24% GP 6% SF 6% I/OP 8%

RED C 28/3/2010 FF 24% FG 35% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP %

RED C 28/2/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 17% GP 9% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 31/1/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 9%

RED C 22/11/2009 FF 23% FG 36% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 25/10/2009 FF 25% FG 35% LAB 19% GP 3% SF 9% I/OP 9%

RED C 27/9/2009 FF 24% FG 35% LAB 18 % GP 4% SF 8% I/OP 11%

RED C 13/9/2009 FF 24% FG 33% LAB 19% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 11%

RED C 31/5/2009 FF 21% FG 34% LAB 18% GP 4% SF 10% I/OP 13%

RED C 17/5/2009 FF 24% FG 34% LAB 18% GP 5% SF 7 % I/OP 12%

RED C 26/4/2009 FF 23% FG 33% LAB 19% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 10%

RED C 29/3/2009 FF 28% FG 31% LAB 17% GP 7% SF 7% I/OP 10%

RED C 1/3/2009 FF 23% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 6% SF 11% I/OP 8%

RED C 1/2/2009 FF 23% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 6% SF 11% I/OP 8%

RED C 23/11/2008 FF 30% FG 35% LAB 14% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 8%

RED C 26/10/2008 FF 26% FG 33% LAB 15% GP 6% SF 10% I/OP 10%

RED C 21/ 9/ 2008 FF 36% FG 28% LAB 9% GP 7% SF 9% I/OP 11% BANK GUARANTEE - SEPT 2008

RED C 27/7/2008 FF 40% FG 24% LAB 10% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 22/6/2008 FF 40% FG 25% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 10% I/OP 8%

RED C 25/5/2008 FF 38% FG 29% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 7% I/OP 8%

RED C 27/4/2008 FF 38% FG 29% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 7% I/OP 8%

RED C 30/3/2008 FF 35% FG 30% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 2/3/2008 FF 37% FG 31% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 8% I/OP 7%

RED C 27/1/2008 FF 36% FG 32% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 9% I/OP 6%

RED C 25/11/2007 FF 32% FG 31% LAB 13% GP 9% SF 7% I/OP 9%

RED C 28/10/2007 FF 39% FG 27% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 8% I/OP 9%

RED C 23/9/2007 FF 40% FG 27% LAB 11% GP 7% SF 6% I/OP 9%

The Opening Post updated today.


Most recent poll -

SBP/Red C Poll Sept 22: FG 32 (-), Lab 14 (-1), FF 18 (-), SF 18 (+2), ind 18 (-1)

[B]

General Election 25/2/2011 F F 17.4% FG 36.1% Lab 19.4% GP 1.8% SF 9.9% Ind 12.6% Others 2.6%

General Election 2007 FF 42% FG 27% LAB 10% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 9%

Sinn Fein and the Independents have picked off 10% of the voters between them since the General Election. But things at the moment seem fairly static. Looking at the change since 2007, there has been a shift from 69% for FG/FF down to 50%.

Leaving 50% to Labour, Sinn Fein and "Others"

[Greengoddess]

Interesting analysis below. Seems coalition coud be re elected with reduced seats.

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/09/22...eptember-2012/

[Baron von Biffo]

Interesting analysis below. Seems coalition coud be re elected with reduced seats.

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/09/22...eptember-2012/

86 seats would be on the scary side of slim for any Taoiseach GG. The lobby fodder would scent power.

[Shaadi]

Interesting analysis below. Seems coalition coud be re elected with reduced seats.

http://politicalreform.ie/2012/09/22...eptember-2012/

Fine Gael 66, Labour 20, Fianna Fail 27, Sinn Fein 22, Green Party, Independents and Others 23.

Hmm, FG/LAB on 46% would get 86 seats vs the rest on 54% who'd get 72 seats.

Probably overestimating FG by a bit, last election FG got 76 (45.7%) of total seats available on a base of 36% of the vote. a 25% big party seat bonus.

FF in 2007 got 77 out of 166 (46.3%) of total seats available on a base of 41.6% of the vote, a big party seat bonus of 11.3%. FG in 2007 got 51 (30.7% of available seats) on a base of 27.3% of the vote, a 12% seat bonus.


FF in 2002 (48% of total available seats) got a big party seat bonus of 16% on a base of 41.5% of the vote at a time when FG got a negative seat bonus of approximately -20%.

This time FG on 32% are projected to get 66 (41.7% out of 158 available seats) an unheard of 30.1% big party seat bonus.

Along with that, the FG/Labour transfer pool of 56.5% of the electorate has been reduced to 46%, the potential pool of Labour to FG transfers has dropped by 38% proportionately to the last time ( 5.4% reduction on 19.4% of total votes)

The last general election was an extraordinary general election due to the anti-FF backlash and the big seat bonus was also extraordinary. Expecting FG to improve on that seat bonus looks flawed. A more realistic big party seat bonus for FG would be 20% and that's being generous, giving them 60/61 seats. On a less generous 12% seat bonus they'd get 56/57 add Labours 20 seats and you'd need a few Independents to get a majority.

Given that there's a further approximate $11bn to be slashed from the budget before the 2016 election, what're the chances of a FG/LAB coalition in 2016?

[Apjp]

I love how FF at 18% are 27 seats and SF are 20. No bias on that site at all.

[Shaadi]

I love how FF at 18% are 27 seats and SF are 20. No bias on that site at all.

Based on that sites projections.

Opinion poll FF18% FG 32% LAB 14% SF 18% OTH 18%

% share of seats FF 17.1 FG 41.8 LAB 12.7 SF 13.9 OTH 14.6

% votes to seats FF-0.5 FG +30.1 LAB -10.2 SF -29 OTH -23.2



What happened in the last election
.
% share of votes FF 17.4% FG 36.1% LAB 19.4% SF 9.9%

% share of seats FF 12.1% FG 45.7% LAB 22.3% SF 8.43%

% votes to seats FF -43 FG +25 LAB +15 SF -1.17

The mind boggles as to how someone thinks SF are going to go from -1.17% vote to seat conversion in 2011 to -29% .now.

Apologies if any of the figures are inaccurate.