Irish National Opinion Polls and Election Results - 2008 - 2012 - the Full Picture

[C. Flower]

Election Results (General Election and Post General Election results shown in blue - most recent poll shown in orange)

Most recent polls -
RedC FG 28% (nc), Lab 11% (-2), FF 25% (+1), SF 16% (+2), Ind 20% (-1).

MRBI for Sunday Independent, 16 Feb 2013 FF 27, FG 25, Lab 13, SF 20, Ind 16 after 27 % undecided


General Election 25/2/2011 F F 17.4% FG 36.1% Lab 19.4% GP 1.8% SF 9.9% Ind 12.6% Others 2.6%

EU Election 5/6/2009 FF 24% FG 29% LAB 14 % GP 2% SF 11% I/OP 20%

Local Elections 5/6/2009 FF 25% FG 32% LAB 15% GP 2% SF 7% I/OP 18%

General Election 2007 FF 42% FG 27% LAB 10% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 9%

Exit Poll 2011 (RTE) RTE Exit Poll - FF 15.1%, FG on 36.1%, Lab 20%, Greens 2.7%, Ind/Other 15.5 %


Sunday Times Behaviour and Attitudes
http://www.banda.ie/assets/files/Sun...%20%20Poll.pdf

17 Nov 2012 ST 'B&A Poll' FG 30% -1, FF 22% +6, SF 14% -4, Lab 12% -2, Ind 19% NC, Grns 3% +1.
9 Sept 2012 FG 33% (n/c) Lab 11% (-3%) FF 18% (+3) SF 19% (+3) Green 2 % (-3) Others 17% (-1)

May 23 2012 FG 33% (+1) Lab 11% (-3) FF 17% (+2) SF 23% (+5) Green 1% (-4) Others 14% (-4)

26 Feb 2012 FG 32%, Lab 10%, FF 15%, SF 25%, Ind 18%

ST 4/09/2011 FG 44%, Lab 12%, FF 15%, SF 13%, Ind/Others 12%, GP 2%


Milward Brown Polls 2009-2011

Ind/MBL Poll 18/9/2011 - FG 40%, Lab 20%, SF 11%, FF 10%, ULA / Ind 17%, Greens 2%. - FF on 5% in Dublin

Ind/MBL poll 21/6/2011 FG 42% Labour 19% FF 16% SF 11% Ind/Other 13%

MBL 16/2/2011 FF 12% ( -4) FG 38% (+ 8 ) Lab 23% (-1)Gr 1% (-) SF 10% (-3) Ind/Other 16% (-1)

( Adrian Kavanagh Seat estimates based on Irish Ind-M B poll: FF 13, FG 78, LB 42M GP 0, SF 13, OTH 20 (10 'right-leaning' 10 left - 6 ULA)

MBL (Indo) 1/2/2011 FF 16%, FG 30%-4 Labour 24% GP 1%SF 13% +3 Ind 15%

MBL 30/1/2011 FF 16% FG 34% LAB 24% GP 1% SF 10% I/OP 15%

MBL 2/2/2011 FF 16% FG 30% LAB 24% GP 1% SF 13% I/OP 15%

MBL 23/9/2010 FF 22% FG 30% LAB 35% GP 2% SF 4% I/OP 8%

MB IMS 13/2/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 19% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 10%

MB IMS 27/2/2009 FF 25% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 10%


IRISH TIMES MRBI


IT IPSOS MRBI 8.2.2013 FF: 26% (+5) FG:25% (-6) SF:18% (-2) Lab:10% (-2) Greens: 1% (-1) Ind/other: 20% (+6)

IT IPSOS MRBI Oct 17 2012 FG 31% (-1) Lab 12% (+2) FF 21% (+4) SF 20% (-4) Ind 16% (+1) - 73% dissat with Gov

IT IPSOS MRBI 28/5/2012 FG 32%(-1) Lab 10%(-3) FF 17% (+3) SF 24 (+3) G 2%(-) Ind 15% (-2)

IT IPSOS MRBI 19/4/2012 FG 33%(-3) Lab 13% (– 6) FF 14% (-1) SF 21% (+6) Ind 19% (+4) -- 73% dissatisfied with Gov.

IT MRBI 21/2/2011 FF 16% (+1); FG 37% (+4) Lab 19% (-5) SF 11% (-1) GP 2% (+1) and I/O 15% (0).

IT MRBI 2/2/2011 : FF 15%(-2) FG 33% (+3) Lab 24% (-1) SF 12% (-3) GP () Ind 15% (+4).


IPSOS MRBI

IPSOS MRBI 16/12/2010 FF17% FG 30% LAB 25% GP 2 % SF 15% I/OP 11%

IPSOS MRBI 30/9/2010 FF 24% FG 24% LAB 33% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 9%

IPSOS MRBI 11/6/2010 FF 17% FG 28% LAB 32% GP 3% SF 9% I/OP 11%

IPSOS MRBI 22/1/2010 FF 22% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 8% I/OP 11%


TNS MRBI


TNS MRBI 26/9/2009 FF 20% FG 31% LAB 25% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 11%

TNS-MRBI 3/9/2009 FF 17% FG 34% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 10% I/OP 12%

TNS-MRBI 29/5/2009 FF20% FG 36% LAB 23% GP 3% SF 8% I/OP 10%

TNS-MRBI 15/5/2009 FF 21% FG 38% LAB 20% GP3% SF 9% I/OP 10%

TNS-MRBI 13/2/2009 FF 22% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 9%

TNS-MRBI 14/11/2008 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 14% GP 4% SF 8% I/OP 13%

TNS MRBI 7/6/2008 FF 42% FG23% LAB 15% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 7%

TNS MRBI 16/5/2008 FF 42% FG 26% LAB 15% GP 4% SF 6% I/OP 7%

TNS MRBI 25/1/2008 FF 34% FG 31 LAB 12% GP 6% SF 8% I/OP 9%

TNS MRBI 2/11/2007 FF 33% FG 31% LAB 15% GP 5% SF 7% I/OP 9%


RED C 27 April 2013 FG 28% (nc), Lab 11% (-2), FF 25% (+1), SF 16% (+2), Ind 20% (-1).

10 Jan 2013 FG 29%(-1), Lab 13% (-1), FF 21%(+1), SF -1%(-4) and Ind/others 21% (=)

1 Dec 2012 SBP poll: Fg 28-6, Lab 14+1, FF 20+1, SF 17nc, Ind 21+4

SBP/Red C Poll Sept 22: FG 32 (-), Lab 14 (-1), FF 18 (-), SF 18 (+2), ind 18 (-1)

SBP / Red C poll 23rd June: FG 32% (+2), Lab 15% (nc), FF 18% (nc), SF 16% (-3), Ind/Gr/Oth 19% (+1)

SBP Red C Poll 13th May 2012: FG 29% (-3) SF 21% (+2) FF 19%(+2) Lab 13% (-1) Ind 18%/G/Other [/B][/COLOR]

SBP Red C Poll 28th April 2012 FG 32 (-2) SF 19 (+1), FF 17 (+1), Lab 14 (-1), IND 18 (+1)

SBP Red C Poll 3rd March 2012 FG: 30% (no change) S F: 18% (+1) F F 17% (-1) Lab: 16% (+2) Ind: 19% (-2)

Red CC (PP) 12/1/2012 Fine Gael 33%(+1), Labour 16%(+1%), Fianna Fail 17%(-1%), Sinn Fein 14%(-1%), Others 20% (-)

RED C Poll January 28 Red C Poll Jan 28th 2012 Fine Gael: 30% Independents: 21% Fianna Fail: 18% Sinn Féin: 17% Labour 14%

SBP Red C Poll 24/9/11 FG 33% (-8), Lab 16% (-3), FF 15% (-1), SF 15% (+4), Other 21% (+8)

SBP Poll 28/5/11 FG 41% Lab 19%FF 16% NC SF 11% NC IND & OTH 13%

SBP Poll 9/4/11 FG 39% Lab 18% FF 16% SF 11% Ind 16%
.............

RED C (PP) 23/02/2011 FF 15% FG 40% Lab 18% SF 10% G 2% Ind/Oth - 14%

RED C (SBP) 13/2/2011 FF: 15% (-2), FG: 38% (+3), LAB 20% (-2), SF: 10% (-3),GP: 3% (+1) I/OP: 14% (+3)

RED C (SBP) 6/2/2011: FG 35% +2 Labour 22% +1 FF 17% +1 SF 13% nc Ind 11% -4 Greens 2% nc


RED C 30/1/2011 FF 16% FG 33% LAB 21% GP 2% SF 13% I/OP 15%

RED C 7/1/2011 FF 14% FG 35% LAB 21% GP 4% SF14% I/OP 12%

RED C 19/12/2010 FF 17% FG 34% LAB 23% GP 2% SF 14% I/OP 10%

RED C 3/12/2010 FF 13% FG 32% LAB 24% GP 3% SF 16% I/OP 11%

RED C 21/11/2010 FF 17% FG 33% LAB 27 % GP 3% SF 11 % I/OP 8% IMF/EU ARRIVE

RED C 24/10/2010 FF 18% FG 32% LAB 27% GP 4% SF 9% I/OP 10%

RED C 26/10/2010 FF 24% FG 31% LAB 23% GP % SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 27/6/2010 FF 24% FG 33% LAB 27% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 6%

RED C 30/5/2010 FF 24% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 2/5/2010 FF 23% FG 33% LAB 24% GP 6% SF 6% I/OP 8%

RED C 28/3/2010 FF 24% FG 35% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP %

RED C 28/2/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 17% GP 9% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 31/1/2010 FF 27% FG 34% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 9%

RED C 22/11/2009 FF 23% FG 36% LAB 17% GP 5% SF 10% I/OP 9%

RED C 25/10/2009 FF 25% FG 35% LAB 19% GP 3% SF 9% I/OP 9%

RED C 27/9/2009 FF 24% FG 35% LAB 18 % GP 4% SF 8% I/OP 11%

RED C 13/9/2009 FF 24% FG 33% LAB 19% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 11%

RED C 31/5/2009 FF 21% FG 34% LAB 18% GP 4% SF 10% I/OP 13%

RED C 17/5/2009 FF 24% FG 34% LAB 18% GP 5% SF 7 % I/OP 12%

RED C 26/4/2009 FF 23% FG 33% LAB 19% GP 2% SF 8% I/OP 10%

RED C 29/3/2009 FF 28% FG 31% LAB 17% GP 7% SF 7% I/OP 10%

RED C 1/3/2009 FF 23% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 6% SF 11% I/OP 8%

RED C 1/2/2009 FF 23% FG 30% LAB 22% GP 6% SF 11% I/OP 8%

RED C 23/11/2008 FF 30% FG 35% LAB 14% GP 5% SF 8% I/OP 8%

RED C 26/10/2008 FF 26% FG 33% LAB 15% GP 6% SF 10% I/OP 10%

RED C 21/ 9/ 2008 FF 36% FG 28% LAB 9% GP 7% SF 9% I/OP 11% BANK GUARANTEE - SEPT 2008

RED C 27/7/2008 FF 40% FG 24% LAB 10% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 22/6/2008 FF 40% FG 25% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 10% I/OP 8%

RED C 25/5/2008 FF 38% FG 29% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 7% I/OP 8%

RED C 27/4/2008 FF 38% FG 29% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 7% I/OP 8%

RED C 30/3/2008 FF 35% FG 30% LAB 10% GP 8% SF 9% I/OP 8%

RED C 2/3/2008 FF 37% FG 31% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 8% I/OP 7%

RED C 27/1/2008 FF 36% FG 32% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 9% I/OP 6%

RED C 25/11/2007 FF 32% FG 31% LAB 13% GP 9% SF 7% I/OP 9%

RED C 28/10/2007 FF 39% FG 27% LAB 10% GP 7% SF 8% I/OP 9%

RED C 23/9/2007 FF 40% FG 27% LAB 11% GP 7% SF 6% I/OP 9%

[C. Flower]

The dramatic story of Fianna Fail's decline from 42% of the votes in the 2007 General Election to 16% today.

Hard to remember that a couple of years ago Labour and the Greens were only separated by one or two percentage points.

It's also a reminder that Independents tend to do better in elections than in in polls.

I'll update these lists as new polls come out.

Each polling firm has a different methodology which may vary from one poll to the next. Some aspects of the poll are decided by the client, who in Ireland is nearly always a newspaper.

[C. Flower]

I'm just looking at this poll which shows that young people favour voting left. Is this a common trend among young people, or it it an indication of a long term generational shift taking place towards less conservative politics ?

Dublin, with its higher levels of urbanisation and younger than average population is also a bit of a litmus test for where the Irish electorate may be heading in future.

I'll update the OP, with its global picture of polls, during the course of the day.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/y...ty-494122.html

[Sidewinder]

Interesting....the fatal blow for FF is in late 2008.

I guess far more ordinary people saw right through St Lendahand and the Guarantee /NAMA right from the start than the meeja would give credit for.

It's just been a long slow death spiral for them since, but from these polls the sudden drop from still being the "big gorilla natural leader of Govt party" in the high 30s to being a party in some trouble in the mid-20s happened very suddenly around October 2008.

Once FF were consistently in the 20s and looking unlikely to be forming the next Govt, support has just slowly bled away since. Course Lendahand's various nutjob pronouncements and the IMF bailout probly didn't help matters...but it looks it was the Guarantee that started the collapse.

[C. Flower]

Interesting....the fatal blow for FF is in late 2008.

I guess far more ordinary people saw right through St Lendahand and the Guarantee /NAMA right from the start than the meeja would give credit for.

It's just been a long slow death spiral for them since, but from these polls the sudden drop from still being the "big gorilla natural leader of Govt party" in the high 30s to being a party in some trouble in the mid-20s happened very suddenly around October 2008.

Once FF were consistently in the 20s and looking unlikely to be forming the next Govt, support has just slowly bled away since. Course Lendahand's various nutjob pronouncements and the IMF bailout probly didn't help matters...but it looks it was the Guarantee that started the collapse.

Yes - it was a moment of truth, it appears. Everyone must have known even if only subconsciously, that the boom was based on nothing. When we saw Irish politicians staying up working all night, we all knew the jig was up.

[Kid Ryder]

I'm just looking at this poll which shows that young people favour voting left. Is this a common trend among young people, or it it an indication of a long term generational shift taking place towards less conservative politics ?

Dublin, with its higher levels of urbanisation and younger than average population is also a bit of a litmus test for where the Irish electorate may be heading in future.

I'll update the OP, with its global picture of polls, during the course of the day.

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/y...ty-494122.html

I note that that FF gimp/USI president Gary Redmond is quoted giving his tuppence worth on the poll results. He says it's down to the planned introduction of tuition fees. Well, he and his party supports them, though like a good FFer he talks well out of both sides of his mouth.

[jimmymalone]

I think the only area where FF support is holding up a bit is in the over 55 age group. The FF support appears to be broken down as follows 18-34-8% 35-54-12% 55-85-20%. This probably explains FF constantly coming in and around the 12-14% overall figure. I can't see where FF are going to get any bounce in the polls, they would probably have better off sticking with Cowen as their leader. I suspect a lot of the over 55 FF voters are probably voting FF because they have voted FF all their lives, it's too late to change now.

I think we may be witnessing the death of FF forever. No modern political party can survive with that level of support in the 18-34 age group. The demise of FF will have huge political repercussions throughout Europe.

[Dr. FIVE]

Looks like the FB was the final nail in Labour's hopes.
Bet by FF they way things are going.

Though if there was ever evidence the polls are nonsense...

[C. Flower]

Labour always does better when making noises about aiming to lead a government and worse when they make it clear that they will join a FG coalition. A clear death wish.

[C. Flower]

Another IPSOS Irish Times MRBI Poll -

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking4.html

When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support (when undecided voters were excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll on February 3rd were: Fianna Fáil, 16 per cent (up one point); Fine Gael, 37 per cent (up four points); Labour, 19 per cent (down five points); Sinn Féin, 11 per cent (down one point); Green Party, 2 per cent (up one point); and Independents/Others, 15 per cent (no change).


The poll was taken last Thursday and Friday, with a week to go in the campaign, among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.


The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last poll was: Fianna Fáil, 13 per cent (up one point); Fine Gael, 30 per cent (up four points); Labour, 16 per cent (down three points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (no change); Green Party, 1 per cent (no change); Independents/ Others, 12 per cent (up one point); and undecided voters, 19 per cent (down three points).


In a reflection of his and his party’s strong campaign to date, Mr Kenny’s personal rating has improved significantly and he has pulled ahead of Labour leader Eamon Gilmore and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin as the preferred choice for taoiseach.


The strength of the swing to Fine Gael is reflected in the fact that the party now has more support in every region of the country than any other party.
Fine Gael has passed out Labour in Dublin for the first time in recent years.
The biggest gains have been among middle-class voters, a group where Labour was in the lead as recently as last autumn.
In line with Fine Gael’s rise, the satisfaction rating of the party leader has continued its upward trend.


When voters were asked who they would prefer to see as taoiseach after the election, Mr Kenny had the support of 34 per cent (up 10 points); Mr Martin was on 22 per cent (down one point); and Mr Gilmore was on 21 per cent (down five points).

Mr Kenny is on 37 per cent (up seven points); Mr Martin is on 29 per cent (up four points); Mr Gilmore is on 40 per cent (down four points); John Gormley is on 19 per cent (up four points); and Gerry Adams is on 29 per cent (up two points).


A Fine Gael-Labour coalition is still the preferred choice of government after the election but there has been a significant increase in the numbers backing a Fine Gael minority government supported by Independents.
Satisfaction with the way the Government is doing its job has remained at a record low of 4 per cent and satisfaction with outgoing Taoiseach Brian Cowen is up two points to 10 per cent.


The poll shows 68 per cent of people have definitely made up their minds how they will vote, but 30 per cent may still change their minds.
The five-point decline in support for Labour over the past three weeks will worry the party....



The marginal increase in Fianna Fáil support will come as a relief to the party after months of unremittingly bad news. It is now in with a real chance in the battle with Labour for second place.
The Sinn Féin share of the national vote is holding steady. The party’s support is strongest in Connacht-Ulster but it has slipped in Dublin and Munster.
Green Party support has increased from a very low base and the party still has a chance of holding a small number of seats.
Independents and Others have held on to the 15 per cent support achieved in the last poll and will be strongly represented in the next Dáil.

[C. Flower]

The polls indicate a definite swing to the right. People still don't realise what the IMF is.

[andrew]

I have long supported the idea that FF will come 2nd in the polls.Still believe 20% is on but,after considering all my options,I'm going with FG because difficult times demand strong and effective leadership with the will and ability to steer through a budget which may be tough to accept but needed at the present time.FF were always going to lose this Election and,I'm afraid,EG hasn't proved his qualities through the whole campaign.So Tipp South has 1 more for FG.

I accept that the Electoral System has always suited the needs of the country so I'm happy to continue on that course.Havn't made my mind up on who gets Vote 1 but I'll be voting a full FG ticket on Friday.

[C. Flower]

WorldbyStorm gives his analysis of the last poll (in red in the OP) and a couple of links to other useful interpretations.

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/201...as-it-happens/

The big unknown is how many of the multiple independents will made it through and how will they effect the next Daíl.

http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/201...as-it-happens/

[Mervyn Crawford]

The move towards Labour in the Autumn was dealt a blow by their willingness to proceed with debt settlement on the backs of the working class.

The FG victory expresses volatilty within the bourgeois democratic electoral hothouse - the heat coming from the breakdown of the capitalist economy.

Once working people move outside bourgeois democracy the class interests become sharper. Though the crucial requirement is consistent socialist leadership.

[C. Flower]

I'd like to update the OP with a breakdown of party votes by %. Anyone know if this is available ?