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Thread: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

  1. #16
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    From rte.ie

    2032 Dick Roche was not present for the announcement of his elimination in Wicklow, which was greeted with loud applause and cheering.


  2. #17
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by Ah Well View Post
    From rte.ie

    2032 Dick Roche was not present for the announcement of his elimination in Wicklow, which was greeted with loud applause and cheering.

    Yeah it was a loud applause as he deserves to go for his role in the Lisbon Treaty.

    Lot of well know FF names were hammered and given a huge kick in their backsides. The shock on their faces told us all re their reaction re rout.

    I was happy to see them go out on a bang as i would say to them ' good riddance as you have destroyed our country'. I have no sympathies for them as they were only thinking of lining their pockets more and their sense of entitlement without breaking a sweat.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Looks like Wicklow finally gets it's first TD of GE11 elected. Andrew Doyle FG is the first TD elected on the 15th Count.

  4. #19
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Brady (SF) not a happy camper...
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  5. #20
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Brady lost out to Stephen Donnelly:

    DOYLE, Andrew FG
    TIMMINS, Billy FG
    HARRIS, Simon FG
    FERRIS, Anne LAB
    DONNELLY, Stephen IND
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  6. #21
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by TotalMayhem View Post
    Brady lost out to Stephen Donnelly:

    DOYLE, Andrew FG
    TIMMINS, Billy FG
    HARRIS, Simon FG
    FERRIS, Anne LAB
    DONNELLY, Stephen IND
    Only 12 votes in it. Recounts have been ordered on the back of larger margins this weekend. Is SF letting this stand?
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

  7. #22
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kid Ryder View Post
    Only 12 votes in it. Recounts have been ordered on the back of larger margins this weekend. Is SF letting this stand?
    It's 112 votes (Brady 9854 / Donnelly 9966) and there will be no recount.

    From de tweet machine:

    @RTEwicklow: request for recount has just been withdrawn #wk
    @raymcgrath: Oh, and fair play to Sinn Fein for not behaving like a bunch of dicks :-) #wk
    Last edited by TotalMayhem; 01-03-2011 at 03:57 AM.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  8. #23
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by TotalMayhem View Post
    It's 112 votes (Brady 9854 / Donnelly 9966) and there will be no recount.

    From de tweet machine:
    It's late. Sorry to trouble ya...
    "It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
    — Buenaventura Durruti

  9. #24
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    GE 2011 first preferences.

    Fine Gael Andrew Doyle 14.2 10,035

    Fine Gael Billy Timmins 13.0 9,165

    Fine Gael Simon Harris 12.4 8,726

    Labour Party Anne Ferris 7.7 5,436

    Independent Stephen Donnelly 9.2 6,530

    Sinn Féin John Brady 10.1 7,089

    Fianna Fáil Pat Fitzgerald 5.1 3,576

    Labour Party Tom Fortune 4.9 3,420

    Independent Joe Behan 6.0 4,197

    Fianna Fáil Dick Roche 5.5 3,891

    Labour Party Conal Kavanagh 4.6 3,231

    Independent Peter Dempsey 2.0 1,409

    Green Party Niall Byrne 1.5 1,026

    Independent Nicky Kelly 0.7 518

    Independent Donal Kiernan 0.6 403

    Fís Nua Gerry Kinsella[36] 0.5 324

    Fís Nua Pat Kavanagh[36] 0.4 291

    Independent Eugene Finnegan 0.4 286

    Independent Charlie Keddy 0.3 233

    Independent Michael Mulvihill 0.3 187

    Independent Anthony Fitzgerald 0.3 184

    Independent Jim Tallon 0.2 166


    Independent Thomas Clarke 0.1 103

    Independent Kevin Carroll 0.1 74

    Electorate: 95,339 Valid: 70,579 Spoilt: 702 (1.1%) Quota: 11,764 Turnout: 71,311 (74.8%)


    If an election was called now.

    Adjusted first preferences based on January Red C and local conditions..




    Sinn Féin John Brady 20% 14,149

    Fine Gael Andrew Doyle 11.5% 8,094

    Fine Gael Billy Timmins 10.47% 7,392


    Fine Gael Simon Harris 10% 7,038

    Independent Stephen Donnelly 7.5% 5,266

    Independent Joe Behan 7.8% 5,542

    Fianna Fáil Dick Roche 6.99% 4,940

    Fianna Fáil Pat Fitzgerald 6.36% 4,487

    Labour Party Anne Ferris 4.54% 3,205

    Labour Party Tom Fortune 2.85% 2,016

    Labour Party Conal Kavanagh 2.6% 1,832

    Independent Peter Dempsey 2,44% 1,720

    Green Party Niall Byrne 1.78% 1,252

    Independent Nicky Kelly 0.9 632

    Independent Donal Kiernan 492

    Fís Nua Gerry Kinsella[36] 395

    Fís Nua Pat Kavanagh[36] 355

    Independent Eugene Finnegan 349

    Independent Charlie Keddy 284

    Independent Michael Mulvihill 228

    Independent Anthony Fitzgerald 224

    Independent Jim Tallon 202

    Independent Thomas Clarke 125

    Independent Kevin Carroll 90

    2 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 FF.

    FG and Lab to lose a seat each to SF and FF. And Donnelly should finish higher up on the poll, but I was only giving him the average IND increase.

  10. #25
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    GE 2011 first preferences.

    Fine Gael Andrew Doyle 14.2 10,035

    Fine Gael Billy Timmins 13.0 9,165

    Fine Gael Simon Harris 12.4 8,726

    Labour Party Anne Ferris 7.7 5,436

    Independent Stephen Donnelly 9.2 6,530

    Sinn Féin John Brady 10.1 7,089

    Fianna Fáil Pat Fitzgerald 5.1 3,576

    Labour Party Tom Fortune 4.9 3,420

    Independent Joe Behan 6.0 4,197

    Fianna Fáil Dick Roche 5.5 3,891

    Labour Party Conal Kavanagh 4.6 3,231

    Independent Peter Dempsey 2.0 1,409

    Green Party Niall Byrne 1.5 1,026

    Independent Nicky Kelly 0.7 518

    Independent Donal Kiernan 0.6 403

    Fís Nua Gerry Kinsella[36] 0.5 324

    Fís Nua Pat Kavanagh[36] 0.4 291

    Independent Eugene Finnegan 0.4 286

    Independent Charlie Keddy 0.3 233

    Independent Michael Mulvihill 0.3 187

    Independent Anthony Fitzgerald 0.3 184

    Independent Jim Tallon 0.2 166


    Independent Thomas Clarke 0.1 103

    Independent Kevin Carroll 0.1 74

    Electorate: 95,339 Valid: 70,579 Spoilt: 702 (1.1%) Quota: 11,764 Turnout: 71,311 (74.8%)


    If an election was called now.

    Adjusted first preferences based on January Red C and local conditions..




    Sinn Féin John Brady 20% 14,149

    Fine Gael Andrew Doyle 11.5% 8,094

    Fine Gael Billy Timmins 10.47% 7,392


    Fine Gael Simon Harris 10% 7,038

    Independent Stephen Donnelly 7.5% 5,266

    Independent Joe Behan 7.8% 5,542

    Fianna Fáil Dick Roche 6.99% 4,940

    Fianna Fáil Pat Fitzgerald 6.36% 4,487

    Labour Party Anne Ferris 4.54% 3,205

    Labour Party Tom Fortune 2.85% 2,016

    Labour Party Conal Kavanagh 2.6% 1,832

    Independent Peter Dempsey 2,44% 1,720

    Green Party Niall Byrne 1.78% 1,252

    Independent Nicky Kelly 0.9 632

    Independent Donal Kiernan 492

    Fís Nua Gerry Kinsella[36] 395

    Fís Nua Pat Kavanagh[36] 355

    Independent Eugene Finnegan 349

    Independent Charlie Keddy 284

    Independent Michael Mulvihill 228

    Independent Anthony Fitzgerald 224

    Independent Jim Tallon 202

    Independent Thomas Clarke 125

    Independent Kevin Carroll 90

    2 FG, 1 SF, 1 IND, 1 FF.

    FG and Lab to lose a seat each to SF and FF. And Donnelly should finish higher up on the poll, but I was only giving him the average IND increase.
    What local conditions?

  11. #26
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    Default Re: General Election 2011: Wicklow Constituency (5 Seats)

    Quote Originally Posted by People Korps View Post
    What local conditions?
    The strength of candidates and parties in the individual constituencies is different than as a whole nationally. So I'm just trying to get a picture of where the seats are likely to go in the individual constituencies by increasing or decreasing the various candidates figures by the ratios that their respective political groups have changed in the opinion polls since the GE.

    Just to get the feel for the overall national picture as it would roughly stand if the next election were fought on the Red C numbers.

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