General Election 2011: Mayo Constituency (5 Seats)

[homer]

Thanks Shaadi

I still don't follow the reason for and the detail of the adjustments. In any cse the movement of a large bloc of voters to Galway makes it hard to predict.

the Connaught Telegraph published the polling box tallies for the area being transferred at the time of the announcement

Many of Mayo's FG votes depend on .Enda Kenny being, and delivering locally, as Taoiseach

[homer]

Shaadi

Regarding variations for local conditions, I an not sure how validly you can apply poll figures.

For Example

1. In Mayo there has been a large FG surge for a Mayo Taoiseach. Many who do not normally vote FG voted for Enda Kenny andother FG candidates so as to have a Taoiseach in the county

2. John O'Mahoney's support is partly due to his strong GAA record - manager of the Mayo team when first elected. Would have got, and will probably retain many non-FG votes for that reason.

3. Ml Ring has a large personal vote. He had a similar vote even when FG was at a low ebb, garnering many non-FG votes. Again a change in RedC figures for FG would hardly affect him.

4. The old question - how much is a candidates vote party based and how much personal?

While your industry is to be admired, I wonder can such an exercise take into account all local conditions?

[Shaadi]

Shaadi

Regarding variations for local conditions, I an not sure how validly you can apply poll figures.

For Example

1. In Mayo there has been a large FG surge for a Mayo Taoiseach. Many who do not normally votes for Enda Kenny so as to have a Taoiseaach in the county

2. John O'Mahoney's support is partly due to his strong GAA record - manager of the Mayo team when first elected. Would have got, and will probably retain many non-FG votes for that reason.

3. Ml Ring has a large personal vote. He had a similar vote even when FG was at a low ebb, garnering many non-FG votes. Again a change in RedC figures for FG would hardly affect him.

4. The old question - how much is a candidates vote party based and how much personal?

While your industry is to be admired, I wonder does it take into account all local conditions?

It's impossible to predict it accurately, I was just entertaining myself and trying to get a hang of the overall picture. I would fully take on board the personal vote thing, the likes of Willie Penrose, his vote is personal and would be dented but not halved like one of the soft new Labour TDs who have no client base to hang onto would be.

Anyhow I got bored of doing it and have taken a break The one thing that it has confirmed for me, is that Labour really are in absolutely huge trouble. They'd be down to the mid teens in seats and most of those would be the oldies of the party who'd have built up a big personal vote..

[homer]

OK Shaadi - thanks. Hope you can keep going later

[Shaadi]

OK Shaadi - thanks. Hope you can keep going later

I had a look at Mayo again, and it seems that Mayo actually swung less to FG from 2007 to 2011 than the rest of country did. That was because Mayo was already at 53.8% for FG and there's only so much more you can go, plus the FG vote in Mayo is largely a personal vote. FG in Mayo in 2011 should have got 53.8 x 36.1/27.3 = 71%, but they actually only got 65%.

Crowley Lab only got his own personal vote and no Labour bounce at all.

The mobility has to be there in a constituency to take full advantage of the national swings. FF were only on 24.4% in Mayo in 2007 so there was only a theoretical 14% of the total Mayo constituency votes available to swing to the other parties. FG took 11.2% of that swing and SF picked up the rest.

[homer]

I had a look at Mayo again, and it seems that Mayo actually swung less to FG from 2007 to 2011 than the rest of country did. That was because Mayo was already at 53.8% for FG and there's only so much more you can go, plus the FG vote in Mayo is largely a personal vote. FG in Mayo in 2011 should have got 53.8 x 36.1/27.3 = 71%, but they actually only got 65%.

Crowley Lab only got his own personal vote and no Labour bounce at all.

The mobility has to be there in a constituency to take full advantage of the national swings. FF were only on 24.4% in Mayo in 2007 so there was only a theoretical 14% of the total Mayo constituency votes available to swing to the other parties. FG took 11.2% of that swing and SF picked up the rest.

Noted Shaadi.

In 2007 there was a huge push to elect a Mayo Taoiseach. FG built on that in 2011

Labour as a party has not been strong in Mayo in modern times