General Election 2011: Mayo Constituency (5 Seats)

[TotalMayhem]

[Xray]

On a very bad day for FF this could be four FG and one to Lab or SF. There will be a real fight for the last two seats for sure. A 5 seater where every seat is held by the government would be some result in a place that had a strong FF base for many years.

FG and Lab should think seriously about transfer management is they are serious about FF wipe out.

[antiestablishmentarian]

FF will get nothing. FG to get 3, with Cowley to get one for Labour and possibly SF too, they could hive off the more nationalistic FF voters.

[Xray]

Cant see Lab and SF getting a seat, if both FF seats go surely Mulhern will pull in a 4th for FG? Cowley is hard to call but I think he will make it, it depends on how SF do really.

[culmore]

not so long ago Mayo had 3 FF TDs so they wil get at least one even on a bad day

[homer]

I think it will be 3 Fg one FF and last seat wide open. Four FG would require fantastic vote management, which will not ha\ppen

Cowley is well known but his jump to Labour might not be well received - he would do better as an independent. Suggestions that he may get a cabinet position do not take into account the many Labour TDs who have been toiling in that party for years.

He is a GP with a large practice. He is also a BL but does not practice as a barrister.

e SF - Gerry Murray got a good vote last time out - a lot of it local support which he enjoyed back when he was a FF councilor, Not sure how much of that he can deliver to the two lady candidates. The SF candidates will not be helped either by Gerry Adams "solutions" for our economic problems. He did not impress while on Morning Ireland this morning.

[Fraxinus]

Tallies so far

Kenny

Ring

O'Mahoney

[Fraxinus]

2/3 voters in Mayo went FG

Man on local radio saying it's almost certainly 4 Fgs and 1 FF

Mayo apparently has the oldest population in Ireland.

[Xray]

http://www.rte.ie/news/election2011/results/mayo.html

will they go for more rounds here or declare soon?

[ang]

Dara Calleary FF
Enda Kenny FG
Michael Ring FG
Michelle Mulherin FG
John O'Mahony FG

All Elected to 31st Dail

[DCon]

some chopping and changing ahead

A FINE Gael TD is considering moving constituencies in a bid to keep his seat in the Dail.

Former Galway football manager, John O'Mahony, was re-elected into the Mayo constituency at the last election. He has held a seat there alongside Taoiseach Enda Kenny since 2007.

However, the TD now looks set to lose the heartland of his support in the recent electoral boundary shake-up, which sees much of the south of Mayo incorporated into the Galway West constituency.

Mayo will drop from a five-seater to four seats in the move, putting the four sitting Fine Gael TDs in Mayo under pressure. The fifth seat is held by Fianna Fail's Dara Calleary, who has a stronghold in Ballina.

Mr O'Mahony told the Irish Independent that he is now considering running in the Galway West constituency for the 2016 election. As a former Galway manager, he has a lot of support in the region.

The news has been met with surprise by his colleague in the Galway constituency. Sean Kyne, the sitting Fine Gael TD for Galway West, said any such move would cause concern.

http://www.independent.ie/national-n...t-3195903.html

[homer]

Heard.
him on radio this morning. Seemed quite interested in following Mayo voters into Galway

Presenter mentioned 10,000 Mayo voters - that is the population figure - at most about 6000 voters. Even if he say garnered 3000 of those for FG, that leaves a lot of votes needed in Galway.

[Shaadi]

GE 2011 first preferences.

Fine Gael Enda Kenny 23.6 17,472

Fine Gael Michael Ring 17.8 13,180

Fine Gael Michelle Mulherin 11.9 8,851

Fianna Fáil Dara Calleary 11.6 8,577

Fine Gael John O'Mahony 11.7 8,667

Independent Michael Kilcoyne 5.4 3,996

Labour Party Jerry Cowley 4.9 3,644

Sinn Féin Rose Conway-Walsh 3.6 2,660

Fianna Fáil Lisa Chambers 4.5 3,343

Sinn Féin Thérèse Ruane 2.9 2,142

New Vision Martin Daly 1.2 893



If there were a GE now.

Adjusted first preferences based on the Red C January 2013 and adjusted for local conditions.


Fine Gael Enda Kenny 19.48% 14,552

Fine Gael Michael Ring 14.7% 10,898

Fianna Fáil Dara Calleary 14.9% 11,056

Fine Gael Michelle Mulherin 9.9% 7,344

Fine Gael John O'Mahony 9.6% 7,166

Sinn Féin Rose Conway-Walsh 7.3% 5,456

Independent Michael Kilcoyne 7% 5,206

Fianna Fáil Lisa Chambers 5.78% 4,289

Sinn Féin Thérèse Ruane 5.56% 4,127

Labour Party Jerry Cowley 2.95% 2,194

New Vision Martin Daly 1.56% 1,157


Reducing from a 5 seater to a 4 seater. Don't know how that effects boundaries, so would appreciate any local knowledge on that.

Assuming the same line up. 3 FG, 1 FF, with FG losing a seat because of the reduction.

[homer]

Thanks shaadi.

Any details of the adjustments made.?

The transfer of about 6000 votes into Galway could be interesting. Right on O'Cuiv's doorstep

Not known yet whether John O'mahoney will follow them into Galway or go to Europe.

M Ring also loses some votes here, but is well insulated by his redoubts in Westport, West Mayo, Achill and Erris.

Enda's position as Taoiseach insulates him, but he will be expected to deliver in Mayo, especially at Knock Airport and Castleb ar Hospital. I know he should be judged by his overall performance as Taoiseach, but all politics are local.

Four able personable ladies now involved in Mayo Dáil politics - M Mulherin elected in 2011 and will work hard to stay there, Rose Conway-Walsh and Therése Ruane who both did well for SF last time out, and will build on that. Lisa Chambers, a very late runner last time for FF will also improve on last outing.

Surprised Kilcoyne did not do better in 2011. Active trade union official for nearly 40 years - also a councillor


thanks Total Mayhem for the map. Inishturk is part of Mayo and should be so shown.

[Shaadi]

Thanks shaadi.

Any details of the adjustments made.?

The transfer of about 6000 votes into Galway could be interesting. Right on O'Cuiv's doorstep

Not known yet whether John O'mahoney will follow them into Galway or go to Europe.

M Ring also loses some votes here, but is well insulated by his redoubts in Westport, West Mayo, Achill and Erris.

Enda's position as Taoiseach insulates him, but he will be expected to deliver in Mayo, especially at Knock Airport and Castleb ar Hospital. I know he should be judged by his overall performance as Taoiseach, but all politics are local.

Four able personable ladies now involved in Mayo Dáil politics - M Mulherin elected in 2011 and will work hard to stay there, Rose Conway-Walsh and Therése Ruane who both did well for SF last time out, and will build on that. Lisa Chambers, a very late runner last time for FF will also improve on last outing.

Surprised Kilcoyne did not do better in 2011. Active trade union official for nearly 40 years - also a councillor


thanks Total Mayhem for the map. Inishturk is part of Mayo and should be so shown.

Thanks for the boundary change information. That should help O'Cuiv in Galway West and possibly O' Clochartaigh SF.

I fixed my adjustments a bit, they were leaving me a few thousand short of the total, so I proportionately rounded them all up again. I used the January Red C figures and applied that ratio of reduction or increase multiplied by the GE 2011 figures for the individual candidates. So a FG candidate was multiplied x 28/36.1% and a FF one by 21/17.4%. to account for the change in support since GE 2011. What small error in total I get I multiply by an evenly distributed amount to round it back to 100%.