Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
As I said, I like and admire Eames, would like to see her and Connolly go through, we do need more women in the Dail for a representative democracy.
Grealish is simply a genetically modified FF'er who supported the cuts and deals done by the last crowd - as is O Cuiv, could not be more genetically pure FF!
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
Senate seats will be hard got. Taoiseach may nominate eleven, but some of those will be selected by Labour - if there is a FG/Labour coalition.
Most Taoisigh would require that candidates stand for election to the Senate first. That is not easy. A nomination has to be obtained from one of the nominating bodies on a suitable panel. A suitable panel is one for which no other councillor in your party in your area ( group of counties or province ) is competing. Having secured a possible nomination you have to get onto your party's list of preferred candidates for that panel.
Having arranged all that you then embark on an extensive tour of the country to meet county and borough councillors of your own party or other independent councillors who may vote for you. Onf of the loneliest and time consuming campaigns in Irish politics.
Number of votes required depends on the panel, but a candidate might be on the road several days and travel 100's of miles for one first preference.
I gather from looking thru some Galway Advertiser tweets that Senator Eames is a little unpopular with those tweeters at least. I gather she is wholly or partly blamed for ambushing McCormack at the last convention. As McCormack would be well known to many councillors - having been the FG standard bearer in Galway city for yonks - she may find a lot of councillors are "washing their hair" or whatever is the male equivalent when she calls.
If a candidate fails to get elected to the Senate (s)he can certainly seek a nomination from An Taoiseach. there will be a huge demand. The idea that such a nomination would be available because one waives a recount is ridiculous.
Taoisigh usually nominate based on electoral strategic reasons. Nearly everybody can make out a case on that basis.
Last edited by homer; 28-02-2011 at 08:17 PM.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
From RTE tweet http://twitter.com/RTEgalwayWEST/sta...38910516420608Revised 1st preference totals: Connolly(IND) down16;Kyne (FG) down 23; Healy Eames (FG) down 4; Grealish (IND) up 1 Walsh (FG) down 4
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
They call it the Leisureland count centre for a reason.Originally Posted by Munnkeyman
Come on!!! Count the damn ballots..................
Results for the 12th to be expected soon.
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
According to rumours now the last seat's occupant is between Kyne and Connolly. Healy-Eames' votes favoured Walsh more than his running mate so it goes. Grealish is safe in this scenario. Connolly to shade it? Just shows how wrong us amateur psephologists can get it.
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
VERY close, Connolly is 58 votes ahead of Kyne and a surplus of 116 votes from Walsh to be distributed between Grealish, Kyne and Connolly after the 12th count.
I sense a recount.
Last edited by TotalMayhem; 01-03-2011 at 03:28 AM.
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
I forgot about the possibility of a Walsh surplus, in fact discounted it more like. Another bloody count. My brain is melting!VERY close, Connolly is 58 votes ahead of Kyne and a surplus of 116 votes from Walsh to be distributed between Grealish, Kyne and Connolly after the 12th count.
I sense a recount.
Oh phukk this is going to be pure random. It still favours Connolly, but not by much. Lots of non-transferables and low preferences going all over the place...
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
Yeah, I was just listening to Walsh on Galway Bay FM, he said, Kyne might take the last seat by 8 votes and that will certainly invoke another full recount. Kyne lost 23 votes in the last recount called by Fidelma... he didn't sound too optimistic for a 2nd FG seat.
Yawn
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
There has to be blue murder in Galway Fine Gael circles over this election strategy (what effin' strategy!) and candidate behaviour in the wake of this débacle! It'd be a laugh to see them tearing each other apart in the heels of what was elsewhere their best election ever. Not to mention the carpeting from blueshirt headquarters...
Last edited by Kid Ryder; 01-03-2011 at 03:54 AM.
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
You can say that loud, mate!
the latest:
B0LLIX, not going to wait til 6 only to learn of another count!clionas #gyw 2706 votes to be counted to figure out the distribution of the 116 - going on 6am #ge11
Last edited by TotalMayhem; 01-03-2011 at 03:53 AM.
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
Here's a little maths to ponder while waiting. Supposing all the Walsh surplus in count 13 (116)transfers in the same ratio more-or-less (7:20) to Connolly and Kyne as Healy-Eames' votes did. That gives Connolly 41 to Kyne' 75, only closing the gap by 34. Of course there will be non-transferable papers, but the numbers and probabilities do favour Connolly quite a bit. But who knows all the same? There are pesky humans involved. Maths might be told to go whistle...
Last edited by Kid Ryder; 01-03-2011 at 04:23 AM.
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
Grealish won't get in on the surplus, he's safe anyway.
So it's all between Kyne and Connolly. Walsh mentioned 85 votes for Kyne from his surplus. Either way, it's likely going to be within the 1% margin of the quota and thus a recount seems inevitable.
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
Yes and Grealish will siphon off 20-or-so papers which makes Kyne's task all the harder. He won't close the gap unless there's some sort of electoral miracle in his favour.
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
87 for Kyne, 12 for Connolly, Grealish snatched 17.
So Kyne taking the last seat of GE11 by 17 votes on the 13th count.
But recount very likely.
Last edited by TotalMayhem; 01-03-2011 at 05:09 AM.
I dropped out of communism class because of lousy Marx.
Senior Member
Re: GE 2011: Galway West (5 Seats)
6,104 of Healy-Eames' 7,024 votes on exclusion were first preferences either for her or for Hildegarde Naughten. That kind of transfer ratio roughly makes sense given that, I suppose. I'm paying attention to the wrong details...
"It is we the workers who built these palaces and cities here in Spain and in America and everywhere. We, the workers, can build others to take their place. And better ones! We are not in the least afraid of ruins. We are going to inherit the earth; there is not the slightest doubt about that. The bourgeoisie might blast and ruin its own world before it leaves the stage of history. We carry a new world here, in our hearts."
— Buenaventura Durruti
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