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Thread: South Sudan Referendum and Statehood - Update - Oil War in Sudan

  1. #1
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    Default South Sudan Referendum and Statehood - Update - Oil War in Sudan

    I thought I would start this thread as South Sudan could become very newsworthy over coming weeks.

    Basic Overview:

    As part of the 2005 peace agreement between the Sudanese government and the southern Sudan Peoples Liberation Army/Movement(SPLA/M) it was determined that a referendum would be held on January 9, 2011 on whether south Sudan would remain part of Sudan.

    It seems almost inevitable that as a result of this referendum the south will break away

    Key Issue:

    OIL.

    Sudan sits on about 6.6 Billion barrels and 80% of all reserves are in the south of the country. As a result of the referendum the North stands to lose billions of dollars in revenue. About 90% of the country's revenues are from oil exports. The oil is currently piped north for processing and export but even this could be lost as there are apparently plans to build a new pipeline to Mombassa in North Kenya.

    Major Players:

    [a]Central government led by Omar Al Bashir. Hated by the yanks and close to the Chinese. Al Bashir says that the results of the referendum will be respected. But even if this is the case () major flashpoints for conflict still exist, not least of all demarcation as there is no traditional and clear boundary. Apparently the idea is to hold the referendum first and then decide the boundary. The British government has offered help in sorting out a boundary. Apparently they have lots of experience in this regard.

    http://www.sudantribune.com/UK-pledg...ssist-in,36868

    [b] SPLM led by Salva Kiir Mayardit. Not a cohesive movement as far as I can make out but a coalition of various (armed) groupings. It will be interesting to see to what extent they may be able to establish a stable state. (if there is no war with the Central government). Smart money would not back this. South Sudan is not a particularly homogeneous place being comprised of over 200 ethnic groups all speaking different languages and with a long history of conflict over grazing land, cattle, etc. Over 1,000 people a year are killed in ethnic clashes at the moment. The SPLM has broken into warring factions in the past. The smart money says that Al Bashir is in there stirring as I type.

    http://splmtoday.com/

    [c] US Imperialism. The Yanks are strong supporters of the SPLM and very much in favour of the breakaway. Many shipments of heavy weaponry have reached the SPLM in recent months mainly coming from the Ukraine via Israel and Kenya, all strong US allies. It may be recalled that one shipload of tanks was seized by Somali pirates, necessitating a very large ransom. I'm not sure who paid it but I doubt it was the SPLM.

    [d] The Chinese. They are major investors in the Sudanese oil industry (to the tune of $20 billion) and the controlling shareholder in the country's two biggest oil consortium. About 60% of Sudan's oil exports are said to go to China. Some 24.000 Chinese Citizens live in Sudan. It was the Chinese who built the pipe to the North. The Chinese foreign policy is said to be based on "non interference" so if this is upheld there will not be too much mixing on their part. One could read this, however, as pragmatism and keeping ones options open. They are close to Al Bashir but the smart money says that without a doubt they are in the ear of Mayardit as well. They have announced recently that they will be sending a delegation to monitor the election.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 22-04-2012 at 09:08 AM.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    The Yanks (who learned their African lessons from the Russkies and Cubans in the 60ies and 70ies well) are a bit longer in the imperialism game than the Chinese, whose billions worth of investments won't count for much if they don't have the guns on the ground.

    My money is on Uncle Sam although it's going to be an interesting one to watch.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  3. #3
    Kev Bar Guest

    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Add to the mix the ICC warrant issued for Bashir to answer charges of genocide. That might deter any attempt to have him go quietly into the night.

    PS Sam, why do you use "US imperialism" and just "The Chinese" as titles.

    Equal editorialising!!
    Last edited by Kev Bar; 05-01-2011 at 02:43 PM.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Kev Bar View Post

    PS Sam, why do you use "US imperialism" and just "The Chinese" as titles.

    Equal editorialising!!
    It is an interesting point. I need to mull on that a bit.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Good article on Chinese FDI here:

    http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/c..._the_myth.html
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    OK. I'm weak on economics but I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that China is probably best defined as an emerging imperialist power rather than an actual one.

    Factors I have in mind in this regards are:

    - primarily characterised by commodity exports rather than capital exports

    - no indication (well to my knowledge - I could be wrong) of a financial oligarchy

    - no military contention with other imperialist powers for spheres of influence, raw materials etc. No military grabs of these.

    - the average standard of living in China (making it difficult to characterise the Chinese as oppressors or exploiters of others - if you know what I mean)

    I would say "emerging" because it is definitely capitalist and reaching out.

    Will have to revisit this later. I'm told the hockey game is a classic. 3-3 in the 3rd period.
    Last edited by Sam Lord; 06-01-2011 at 03:27 AM.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    In discussion on RTE Richard Cockett is saying that the new State will be the least developed State in Africa and will not be able to function without outside (mainly US help). Interestingly the "expert" is saying that while the oil is in the south the refining capacity is in the North.

    He's also suggesting that Darfur will go for independence from Khartoum, but is unlikely to be successful due to its small size and lack of resources.

    He also feels that the Khartoum government is likely to take advantage of the break up to move in and try to crush resistance in Darfur.

    Bashir will be known as the man who let the South go, but the ICC indictment is rallying nationalist support.

    Richard Cockett (author of a book on Sudan).

  8. #8
    Kev Bar Guest

    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    OK. I'm weak on economics but I'm going to stick my neck out here and say that China is probably best defined as an emerging imperialist power rather than an actual one.

    Factors I have in mind in this regards are:

    - primarily characterised by commodity exports rather than capital exports

    - no indication (well to my knowledge - I could be wrong) of a financial oligarchy

    - no military contention with other imperialist powers for spheres of influence, raw materials etc. No military grabs of these.

    - the average standard of living in China (making it difficult to characterise the Chinese as oppressors or exploiters of others - if you know what I mean)

    I would say "emerging" because it is definitely capitalist and reaching out.

    Will have to revisit this later. I'm told the hockey game is a classic. 3-3 in the 3rd period.

    Emerging is fine by me.
    Couple of points

    "- no indication (well to my knowledge - I could be wrong) of a financial oligarchy" ... I think you should take a closer look at The Party.


    "- no military contention with other imperialist powers for spheres of influence, raw materials etc. No military grabs of these."

    On this point, Cambodia would be a prime example. China allied to the US, Thailand, Singapore, Britain backed the Khmer Rouge in a war against the USSR backed Vietnam.

    The Spratlys would be an example of a raw material based sphere of influence conflict.
    Last edited by Kev Bar; 06-01-2011 at 10:56 AM.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Kev Bar View Post
    Emerging is fine by me.
    One point

    "- no indication (well to my knowledge - I could be wrong) of a financial oligarchy" ... I think you should take a closer look at The Party.
    Could be. How many of the sons are at Eton at present ?

  10. #10
    Kev Bar Guest

    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Could be. How many of the sons are at Eton at present ?

    That sounds like a job for the Capt.

    But to whet his appetite:

    "Fees, now more than £23,000 a year, plus extras, have doubled since 1970, and Sir Eric Anderson, the Provost, fears a time will come when few native Britons will be able to afford them. Some Etonians are unfazed by this prospect, envisaging Eton as a finishing school for the sons of the international super-rich. Alternatively, it is argued, its virtues could be marketed abroad. Already a delegation from Canton has visited the school, to find whether the Eton-ethos would adapt to post-communist China."
    Last edited by Kev Bar; 06-01-2011 at 10:50 AM.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    China is probably best defined as an emerging imperialist power rather than an actual one.
    Emerging ot not, the Americans will not just stand by and let them have it their way. Just read an interesting strategic paper (AirSea Battle) by the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment on how to keep the commies at bay. Shooting down their satellites, offensive mine laying, added anti-missile assets, etc.

    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Minister welcomes 'momentous' Sudan referendum result

    Foreign Office minister Lord Howell of Guildford has described the outcome of January's referendum in southern Sudan, where 99% of voters supported secession, as a "momentous step".
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Well, It looks like it is kicking off .... conflict seems to be increasing by the week and there is still a couple of months until independence. The SPLA seems to be fighting seven or eight insurgent groups at the moment. This could be the first example of a state failing before it is even established. Some of it appears to be tribal and the same old stories of cattle rustling and so forth. But here can be no doubt that the North has it's fingers in the pie as well.

    http://www.newsfromafrica.org/newsfr...art_12512.html

    http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...120567079.html

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12430115

    Good job by the "west" here. I wonder if the Brits have sorted out their border for them yet.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    The youngest nation is celebrating its independence today.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: South Sudan Referendum

    Quote Originally Posted by TotalMayhem View Post
    The youngest nation is celebrating its independence today.
    And fighting something like 9 insurgencies - never mind problems with the North. The UN Security Council has just voted to dispatch a new "peacekeeping force" of 7,000 troops and up to 900 civilian police. The new entity clearly has some importance to imperialism.

    http://www.voanews.com/english/news/...125210234.html
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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