Back in 2008, youngdan, myself and others made our predictions for 2009 on Machine Nation. I carried some of them over to Tok! this year to see how they were looking.
my predictions (made in 2008 for 2009) were
1. Increased tensions along in the "transit states" (oil and gas pipe lines) and in the oil producing states as the main economic powers contest control of them. Profound economic and political crises in the eastern European states. Increased tensions between the US and Europe.
2. Africa emerging as an area of development and innovation (notwithstanding number 1. above)
3. Stagflation and a continued shuddering from one new low economic benchmark to the next. A trend to protectionism. Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.
4. A likelihood that the IMF will arrive in Ireland, but the IMF experiencing financial shortfall itself.
5. Unemployment in Ireland over 15% - 11.4 in April - will be more than 15% by the end of the year.
virtual wipe-out of FF in the local and European elections.
6. Emergence of new parties internationally, and move of marginal parties to the mainstream. Gains by the far right and regrouping on the left.
Mass resistance to destruction of public services and false flag incidents to attempt to discredit it. Big increase in political discussion, study and theorising.
7. Honeymoon period for Obama followed by mass unrest - tasers on the street.
Obama will prove to head up a US foreign policy every bit as toxic as Bush's. The US will make multiple moves to destabilise China - the Islamic card will be played in border areas and Pakistan will come under continued pressure.
8. New/growing areas of investment including biotechnology and renewables .
9. A landmark environmental moment that will shift public cyncism about climate change.
10. Increased regulation and restriction of the Internet by legislation and interference.
11. A lot of completely unpredictable events.
Youngdan's predications for 2009 were
1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.
2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.
3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.
4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.
5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,
6. Cowen will get tossed
7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue
8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollars a few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression
9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland
10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt
This came into my mind in relation to the Greek events today.
I never got around to making predictions for 2010, as setting this site up and moving from Tok! took quite a bit of time.
Does anyone want to have a go at predictions to the end of 2010, or further ?