Predictions for 2011: 2012: 2013 Illusion is King

[C. Flower]

Back in 2008, youngdan, myself and others made our predictions for 2009 on Machine Nation. I carried some of them over to Tok! this year to see how they were looking.

my predictions (made in 2008 for 2009) were

1. Increased tensions along in the "transit states" (oil and gas pipe lines) and in the oil producing states as the main economic powers contest control of them. Profound economic and political crises in the eastern European states. Increased tensions between the US and Europe.

2. Africa emerging as an area of development and innovation (notwithstanding number 1. above)

3. Stagflation and a continued shuddering from one new low economic benchmark to the next. A trend to protectionism. Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

4. A likelihood that the IMF will arrive in Ireland, but the IMF experiencing financial shortfall itself.

5. Unemployment in Ireland over 15% - 11.4 in April - will be more than 15% by the end of the year.
virtual wipe-out of FF in the local and European elections.

6. Emergence of new parties internationally, and move of marginal parties to the mainstream. Gains by the far right and regrouping on the left.

Mass resistance to destruction of public services and false flag incidents to attempt to discredit it. Big increase in political discussion, study and theorising.

7. Honeymoon period for Obama followed by mass unrest - tasers on the street.

Obama will prove to head up a US foreign policy every bit as toxic as Bush's. The US will make multiple moves to destabilise China - the Islamic card will be played in border areas and Pakistan will come under continued pressure.

8. New/growing areas of investment including biotechnology and renewables .

9. A landmark environmental moment that will shift public cyncism about climate change.

10. Increased regulation and restriction of the Internet by legislation and interference.

11. A lot of completely unpredictable events.

Youngdan's predications for 2009 were

1. Obama will be a spectacular failure. He will be seen even before day one as a mental lightweight. He is just not up to the job and everyone will be laughing at his stuttering.

2. The Irish economy will totally collapse and this will lead to other predictions.

3. The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

4. Reality will set in and everyone will accept that the welfare state is over. Anyone who mentions free health care will be looked upon as a dingbat. You will see all forms of dole reduced to subsistance. You will see huge layoffs in the civil service and the army begin to be reduced.

5. The government will lose their majority very soon, in weeks,

6. Cowen will get tossed

7 The dollar and the Euro will both get whacked. Interest rates will rise sharply and a currency crisis will ensue

8. Both gold and oil will rise sharply from here. Oil at 35 dollars a few days ago was likely the low even as the economy falls into a deoression

9. Riots similiar to Greece will spread to Spain Italy France Britain Holland Belgium and maybe Ireland

10. There will be calls for leaving the EU and restoring the punt

This came into my mind in relation to the Greek events today.

I never got around to making predictions for 2010, as setting this site up and moving from Tok! took quite a bit of time.

Does anyone want to have a go at predictions to the end of 2010, or further ?

[DCon]

Strains on the Euro with weaker economies wanting to join and stronger currencies having the horrors about the likes of Ireland.

The budget gap will be 22 billion euro. As this is unsustainable the correct way of saying this will be the revenues collected from taxes will not be 49 billion but instead will be less than 27 billion.

Scarily accurate, both of ye

[C. Flower]

Scarily accurate, both of ye

On the Irish predictions, we were both running ahead of ourselves a bit. Not allowing enough for the NTMA's equally prescient selling of enough bonds to provide a 12 month cushion.

That period will come to an end.

[DCon]

On the Irish predictions, we were both running ahead of ourselves a bit. Not allowing enough for the NTMA's equally prescient selling of enough bonds to provide a 12 month cushion.

That period will come to an end.

Do you have any idea how much of the $20 billion commercial paper programme the NTMA have issued, if any?

US$20bn US Commercial Paper Programme

Ireland established a new 3 (a)(3) US Commercial Paper (USCP) programme in 2009. Funds are raised within the United States, in US dollars, and are swapped into euro. This programme adds to the diversified sources of short-term funds raised by Ireland which includes Euro Commercial Paper and Treasury Bills. The Dealers on the programme and their contact details are as follows:

http://www.ntma.ie/ShortTermPaper/uscommpaper.php

[C. Flower]

I don't. Maybe Cassandra Syndrome or Youngdan might help us on that one.

[C. Flower]

So, where do we go from here ?

[ang]

I think the only thing we can do now is don the life jackets !!!!!!

[Fraxinus]

Budget 2010 Brian Lenihan: "Today we have turned a corner as a nation"

Budget 2011 Brian Lenihan: "Today we have turned a corner as a nation"

Budget 2012 Brian Lenihan: "Today we have turned a corner as a nation"

[Newsy]

24th October 2010......hanifan, ahern, cowen, lenihan......because we are making the tough decision, we are down in the polls.
Being down in the polls, tells us we are making the right and tough decisions!!!!

[jinnyjoe]

So, where do we go from here ?

Ah Cactus, we all despair, but you know you have to remain positive, if I think back to my lovely late Grandmother and how she lived, we have definitley come a long way. She was born in 1907 and lived a hard and tragic life and still remained positive and upbeat and moreover had a huge sense of community i.e. if Paddy down the road needed a hay brought in, all the lads would be sent down to help, likewise if she had another baby, Mary down the road would send up the eldest daughter to help with the other kids whilst she got back on her feet.

There was such a community spirit which in many ways has gone from society now except in times of trouble. I for one realised this when mine and 7 other neighbours had our houses completely flooded last year and the comraderie and sense of being in the same boat that ensued was breathtaking. I now know that I have neighbours that I can call on anytime in crisis which is nice to know.

Maybe just maybe in this time of crisis alot of us might just get back to realising what is really important in life i.e. looking out for each other.

I recently said to a neighbour of mine that two of my kitchen chairs were broken and that I didn't have money to replace the set (of 4). Two days later she sent her husband in with 4 matching chairs (albeit second hand) but I am so grateful because now I can sit down for a meal with my family and all because of her and her thoughtfulness.

It can't be all bad!

[Newsy]

Ah Cactus, we all despair, but you know you have to remain positive, if I think back to my lovely late Grandmother and how she lived, we have definitley come a long way. She was born in 1907 and lived a hard and tragic life and still remained positive and upbeat and moreover had a huge sense of community i.e. if Paddy down the road needed a hay brought in, all the lads would be sent down to help, likewise if she had another baby, Mary down the road would send up the eldest daughter to help with the other kids whilst she got back on her feet.

There was such a community spirit which in many ways has gone from society now except in times of trouble. I for one realised this when mine and 7 other neighbours had our houses completely flooded last year and the comraderie and sense of being in the same boat that ensued was breathtaking. I now know that I have neighbours that I can call on anytime in crisis which is nice to know.

Maybe just maybe in this time of crisis alot of us might just get back to realising what is really important in life i.e. looking out for each other.

I recently said to a neighbour of mine that two of my kitchen chairs were broken and that I didn't have money to replace the set (of 4). Two days later she sent her husband in with 4 matching chairs (albeit second hand) but I am so grateful because now I can sit down for a meal with my family and all because of her and her thoughtfulness.

It can't be all bad!

So, so true.

Last winter our water was off for 8 days. Our neighbour gave us the key to her door and we could go in, get water and shower.
Ours was back about 2 days, when her's went off and was off for 10 days. We, of course, returned the neighbourliness.

When there was a recent sale on coal, in the area, which we didn't know about, a lad came and told us and we inturn passed on the word and stocked up.

[C. Flower]

Ah Cactus, we all despair, but you know you have to remain positive, if I think back to my lovely late Grandmother and how she lived, we have definitley come a long way. She was born in 1907 and lived a hard and tragic life and still remained positive and upbeat and moreover had a huge sense of community i.e. if Paddy down the road needed a hay brought in, all the lads would be sent down to help, likewise if she had another baby, Mary down the road would send up the eldest daughter to help with the other kids whilst she got back on her feet.

There was such a community spirit which in many ways has gone from society now except in times of trouble. I for one realised this when mine and 7 other neighbours had our houses completely flooded last year and the comraderie and sense of being in the same boat that ensued was breathtaking. I now know that I have neighbours that I can call on anytime in crisis which is nice to know.

Maybe just maybe in this time of crisis alot of us might just get back to realising what is really important in life i.e. looking out for each other.

I recently said to a neighbour of mine that two of my kitchen chairs were broken and that I didn't have money to replace the set (of 4). Two days later she sent her husband in with 4 matching chairs (albeit second hand) but I am so grateful because now I can sit down for a meal with my family and all because of her and her thoughtfulness.

It can't be all bad!

Dead on . Except we can't leave it only to luck and accident of a good neighbour, we need to have a society where its normal for people to be secure and to be able to count on a home, food, fuel -health and education - and a set of kitchen chairs.

[jinnyjoe]

So, so true.

Last winter our water was off for 8 days. Our neighbour gave us the key to her door and we could go in, ghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsmAMKUIXbE
et water and shower.
Ours was back about 2 days, when her's went off and was off for 10 days. We, of course, returned the neighbourliness.

When there was a recent sale on coal, in the area, which we didn't know about, a lad came and told us and we inturn passed on the word and stocked up.

And there you go! Why is it only in times of trouble we realise this! Thatcher produced a nation of greed, there is no doubt in my mind but that she started it, she has a lot to answer for, Christy says it all in this song;
[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsmAMKUIXbE"]YouTube - Ordinary man - Christy Moore[/ame]

[jinnyjoe]

Dead on . Except we can't leave it only to luck and accident of a good neighbour, we need to have a society where its normal for people to be secure and to be able to count on a home, food, fuel -health and education - and a set of kitchen chairs.

Ah yes C so true, but it's the little bits of kindle that start the big fires.

The trouble about the current situation is that people's minds are being blown with statistics and economics and they haven't a clue what's actually happening. But come December that could change, a friend of mine is a guard and they have been recently trained in riot control and large amounts of equipment have been purchased for riot control (as in out of the ordinary). That speaks volumes to me.

[Fraxinus]

Ah yes C so true, but it's the little bits of kindle that start the big fires.

The trouble about the current situation is that people's minds are being blown with statistics and economics and they haven't a clue what's actually happening. But come December that could change, a friend of mine is a guard and they have been recently trained in riot control and large amounts of equipment have been purchased for riot control (as in out of the ordinary). That speaks volumes to me.

Typical, the same cops that were threatening strike are prepared to batter the rest of the populace about. Hope they get their come uppance.