Could Ireland see the emergence of a far-right?

[antiestablishmentarian]

Some commentators like Morgan Kelly and Dave McWilliams have flagged the potential emergence of a far-right party as a possible result of the current economic catastrophe. They base this assumption on what has happened in other European countries following the crash especially the elections to the EU parliament last year.

I would be inclined to think such a force would not emerge here. There aren't the material conditions for such a party to develop. FF/FG/PD/GP politicians, Irish bankers, Irish property developers and rich white speculators in the bond markets and financial institutions, caused this crisis. Working people know that. They aren't silly enough to fall for some jumped up deadwit skinhead blaming immigrants for the crisis because they know that Sanjeev who works in the local Centra for €8.65 isn't responsible for the arrival of the IMF, mass unemployment and emigration, and horrendous budget cuts and austerity measures. It's more likely that there'll be an opening on the left for groups like the SP, SF are on a roll at the moment, while Labour will clean up support. Historically too the Irish have been more inclined to left wing parties in times of crisis such as the WP in the 80's.

The far-right that do exist are pathetic losers: look at the Irish National Party that set up and went under 6-7 months back, their fuhrer was an out and out anti-semite and when he was interviewed by Marc Coleman the dirt that had been dug on him (he stated on facebook that he had a point Hitler to hate jews after he saw his jewish neighbour watering flowers during a period of drought) sunk any prospect that they would take off. It's also hard to see what forces they would emerge from - the BNP developed out of the NF which in turn had links going back to the Mosleyite hard right which had existed in Britain and continued to exist post-war in different forms. The most likely group that could act as the progenitor for a fascist organisation is the Youth Defence/COIR group. They have shown a tendency to use violence against opponents in the past, attacking pro-choice picketers on at least one occasion, and the Irish far-right has always had links to the Church (Blueshirts, the Hierarchy's support for Franco in the Spanish Civil War). That is their major achilles heel though, the Church has been utterly discredited and by extension micro-groups like YD/Coir. I just can't see the forces from which such a group will emerge here at present- possibly a middle class law and order movement in the event of mass social up heaval but that's some way off yet. Moreover, racism isn't very prevalent and incidents like the killing of Toyosi Shíttabbey in April shocked and appalled the communities where this took place.

An examination of the factors behind the rise of the far-right in other parts of Europe is a necessary corollary to this question. Some people have pointed at the development of far-right parties in other Western European countries as a possible blueprint for what might happen here. Parallels with for example, the BNP in Britain or the FN in France, are mistaken though. There were concrete reasons for the development of the electoral and social footholds those parties enjoy. The FN has its base among the former Pieds-noirs (the former colonists in Algeria who returned in the 50s/60s) and the communities of Northern France which are shattered by mass unemployment and poverty since the betrayal of the Mitterrand government in the 80's which shut down the State owned coal mines and steel industries and the failure to nationalise the local linen industries which also went to the wall at the same time. The fact that this was implemented by a PS/PCF (socialist&communist) coalition added insult to injury as the workers there felt betrayed by their traditional political parties- following this betrayal you saw Le Pen and his cronies start to come to prominence in the North and that's where his daughter and probable successor Marine has her base.

In the UK, the BNP is strong in some areas such as Yorkshire or Lancashire which have experienced high levels of unemployment, deindustrialisation and ghettoisation since the 70's and where the traditional coal-mining communities have felt betrayed and abandoned after Kinnock and the LP tops refused to back the Miners Strike in 1984- some of them moved from supporting their traditional party to support for the BNP because of this. Another problem which helps these parasites gain power is their concentration on racially mixed areas for support, attempting to whip up tensions and xenophobia by playing on the very real social problems in those areas caused by poverty and running down of public services.

The examples of France and the UK show that these things are the result of concrete processes and factors- the factors that led to this phenomenon there don't exist here as of now because the population remains relatively homogeneous and the class-based nature of this crisis means it's more likely that a left-wing group practicing class politics and with an orientation towards ordinary private and public sector workers will gain support than that a far-right group would emerge. It doesn't mean such a group might not emerge in the future but as of now the odds are stacked heavily against it.

[Griska]

I also think it unlikely, but not impossible. The fact that jobs are scarce will only highten jealousy when an immigrant is seen working.

However, when capitalism is seen to be the cause of what's currently happening, there's no emergence of a far-left. The conclusion can only be that we don't "do" extremes.

[TotalMayhem]

The conclusion can only be that we don't "do" extremes.

That's some very nice wording for "we bend over".

[Griska]

That's some very nice wording for "we bend over".

Indeed. And we do.

[matt]

I also think it unlikely, but not impossible. The fact that jobs are scarce will only highten jealousy when an immigrant is seen working.

However, when capitalism is seen to be the cause of what's currently happening, there's no emergence of a far-left. The conclusion can only be that we don't "do" extremes.

I'd certainly advocate an end to free-movement and immigration on need-only policies, and have personal knowledge of events where Irish workers were laid off in favour of lower-paid colleagues from abroad (Meridian vat, D24). I have no resentment towards immigrants, and think they should get a fair deal - on an equal footing - for both our benefits.
But some of the immigration clíches are true - & denying that free-marketeering has turned people into tradable commodities, pushed into competition with each other, is more likely to lead to racism, etc., than acknowedging the fact and taking action to prevent it - to benefit the immigrant and native.

[Apjp]

I'd certainly advocate an end to free-movement and immigration on need-only policies, and have personal knowledge of events where Irish workers were laid off in favour of lower-paid colleagues from abroad (Meridian vat, D24). I have no resentment towards immigrants, and think they should get a fair deal - on an equal footing - for both our benefits.
But some of the immigration clíches are true - & denying that free-marketeering has turned people into tradable commodities, pushed into competition with each other, is more likely to lead to racism, etc., than acknowedging the fact and taking action to prevent it - to benefit the immigrant and native.

what i will say is give all who are already here and able to speak good english work permits, with english classes for others first. then anyone who wants to get in has to want to work or study and speak good english. That's not to much to ask is it? we all benefit from more taxpayers. But these roma nomads-the 3000 or so beggars in ireland who want us to adapt to their ways-no thanks but this is Ireland. Our way or the high way. And our way does not have professional illiterate in any language beggars, unwilling to work or learn beggars on the street, commuting from asylum centres, to harass motorists and pedestrians in dublin by atms and on roads. It means if these people dont want to better themselves for their children, take their children off them, and send the lazy parents home. That is not racist, that is called being real. Way of life me arse we all have to work. The attitude of no responsibilities for roma people from some 1/4s aside, I like most immigrants. As long as they are as hard working as I, I respect them. But they should not get special cases for being black, or roma. A white man cannot go elsewhere and beg. It is about knowing who genuinely needs, wants and will repay our help and giving it to them, and sending the rest home where they belong. Ireland is too small-someone tell mary robinson that please-to save the world.

[People Korps]

what i will say is give all who are already here and able to speak good english work permits, with english classes for others first.

FYI it should be "speak English well" not "able to speak good english" so I guess you qualify for deportation. The second part of your (Apjp's) sentence "with english classes for others first.". is bordering on illiterate and displays chronic ignorance and lack of education so I guess (he) you qualify for deportation. Your command of the English language is at a level that I might expect from a well-tutored gerbil.

[Apjp]

FYI it should be "speak English well" not "able to speak good english" so I guess you qualify for deportation. The second part of your (Apjp's) sentence "with english classes for others first.". is bordering on illiterate and displays chronic ignorance and lack of education so I guess (he) you qualify for deportation. Your command of the English language is at a level that I might expect from a well-tutored gerbil.

Right Professor. I will be sure to consult you in future before I write my posts on the site. And ifI am breaching some technicality again, or as you put it, 'borderlining on illiterate', perhaps you could kindly stop taking the piss just because I want non-national citizens to have a reasonable knowledge of the English language. Subsidized classes for all non-EU workers would be a good start as many people do still struggle in simple roles such as in the local shop or on a local bus. Honestly man, do I honestly give a ***** if I have crossed my T's and dotted my I's? Will that stop the IMF coming in? I am just asking that people in Irish society from different countries coming here can understand what we say, and yes we must help them. But if you want to take the piss of my suggestions with your arrogant snobbish bullshit, take a hike. Back to the topic at hand please.

[Kid Ryder]

The collapse of Paedo Fáil does leave room on the right for parties to fill. One can expect the most of this space to be taken by Labour and FG, but there will be political space for some of the hard right from the failed entity to form what one might whimsically call Fianna Fash. More nationalist flim-flam, brand new (and browner) scapegoats. They've never been above the likes of that in the past, but it's all they've got left now...

[matt]

As for the racist aspects; we've no history of it here - and we were never indoctrinated with daft 19th c. race theory like much of the rest of Europe to justify their empires.
The blueshirt thing died with a whimper.
The attitudes to immigration here ran the gamut from very welcoming initially, to reservations, to the present situation where there is a degree of resentment but it seems to be on specifics and not a general hatred or phobia. There are some very genuine reasons where people, myslef included, think that the issue needs addressing (there are some good points I harvested from other forums included on a thread I set up on the issue), but look at where we are - I, for one, have seen no evidence of any notable degree of hostility to immigrants (there have been incidents - two way, in fact - but I think they're only blips).
So unless a party that were to suddenly find itself marginalised needs to stoke up some support for a movement that doesn't yet exist...

But we've gone over the fact before that left-wing/right-wing isn't really a natural division of people's mindset. I think myself a rather conservative socialist with a pan-(and para-) national outlook who opposes centralised power and extremes of free markets; the tenets underlying co-operative movements are most to my liking.


I certainly think that the EU's version of democracy - puppet govt.s & media control - has a lot in common with fascism.

[LeftAtTheCross]

I do agree that the Left will see a rise in popularity as Irish politics cracks along a Left/Right divide. I would include Labour and Sinn Fein in that, although it's a different argument whether they are parties of the Left at all.

On the far right thing.

It's more likely that a "new" party of the centre right will emerge, a party which makes claims to radical policies of reform of the public sector and welfare state, pro-business, pro-EU, pro-IMF.

A party which ideologically is attractive to FF/FG/PD voters but which shakes off the stench of the existing establishment parties with their overt cronyism and dynastic links to the founding fathers of the state.

A party with a sheen of professionalism, technocracy, expertise, acumen.

A party with well known personalities, a big PR budget, professional communications strategists, spin doctors.

A party which the mainstream media will roll in behind, from Pat Kenny to the Irish Times and the Sindo.

The PDs were too early, their time would be now.

Libertas were too early and fought the wrong battle. The EU/IMF would be the friend of this new centre-right party, not the enemy.

[matt]

I do agree that the Left will see a rise in popularity as Irish politics cracks along a Left/Right divide. I would include Labour and Sinn Fein in that, although it's a different argument whether they are parties of the Left at all.

On the far right thing.

It's more likely that a "new" party of the centre right will emerge, a party which makes claims to radical policies of reform of the public sector and welfare state, pro-business, pro-EU, pro-IMF.

A party which ideologically is attractive to FF/FG/PD voters but which shakes off the stench of the existing establishment parties with their overt cronyism and dynastic links to the founding fathers of the state.

A party with a sheen of professionalism, technocracy, expertise, acumen.

A party with well known personalities, a big PR budget, professional communications strategists, spin doctors.

A party which the mainstream media will roll in behind, from Pat Kenny to the Irish Times and the Sindo.

The PDs were too early, their time would be now.

Libertas were too early and fought the wrong battle. The EU/IMF would be the friend of this new centre-right party, not the enemy.

That sounds like a more realistic, and hence worrying, danger.

[antiestablishmentarian]

I do agree that the Left will see a rise in popularity as Irish politics cracks along a Left/Right divide. I would include Labour and Sinn Fein in that, although it's a different argument whether they are parties of the Left at all.

On the far right thing.

It's more likely that a "new" party of the centre right will emerge, a party which makes claims to radical policies of reform of the public sector and welfare state, pro-business, pro-EU, pro-IMF.

A party which ideologically is attractive to FF/FG/PD voters but which shakes off the stench of the existing establishment parties with their overt cronyism and dynastic links to the founding fathers of the state.

A party with a sheen of professionalism, technocracy, expertise, acumen.

A party with well known personalities, a big PR budget, professional communications strategists, spin doctors.

A party which the mainstream media will roll in behind, from Pat Kenny to the Irish Times and the Sindo.

The PDs were too early, their time would be now.

Libertas were too early and fought the wrong battle. The EU/IMF would be the friend of this new centre-right party, not the enemy.

I think it's quite possible we could see things like this in the near future. McDowell and his band of merry-men haven't gone away and this is the kind of thing that would as you rightly point out have the establishment creaming itself in excitement. We shouldn't rule out the possibility that these kind of people might move to FG as they have taken up harder right positions recently and if Inda was removed, they'd be the perfect vehicle for PD style politics.

[LeftAtTheCross]

I think it's quite possible we could see things like this in the near future. McDowell and his band of merry-men haven't gone away and this is the kind of thing that would as you rightly point out have the establishment creaming itself in excitement. We shouldn't rule out the possibility that these kind of people might move to FG as they have taken up harder right positions recently and if Inda was removed, they'd be the perfect vehicle for PD style politics.

I don't think McDowell will be part of that though, the PDs have become part of the problem in the public eye.

On FG, again they are staid and part of the rotten establishment.

I would expect a rift to occur in the traditional populist centrist parties, FF/FG. The younger aspirants might jump ship this new centre-right party, the bright boys as they would see themselves, the young Turks, Varadkar, Coveney, (my mind struggles to think of any likely lads in FF but you know what I mean).

The new party would have to draw a line in the sand between itself and the failures of the past. The fact that their ideology would be in essence identical is an irrelevance. What will be important is the new faces, the veneer of change, the youth, the professionalism, the style, the personality politics.

Scary prospect.

But it will be inevitable if a Left / Right orientation in politics is to become the new norm.

Of course it also offers prospects for growth of the soft Left, as a part of the FF/FG vote has always been mildly left-of-centre. Labour will probably mop that up, and embed itself firmly to the slight left of centre. At least with an increased constituency for its views it should gain the confidence to adopt a genuinely social democratic position. Which in turn opens up possibilities for parties to the further Left.

Bring it on.

[antiestablishmentarian]

I don't think McDowell will be part of that though, the PDs have become part of the problem in the public eye.

On FG, again they are staid and part of the rotten establishment.

I would expect a rift to occur in the traditional populist centrist parties, FF/FG. The younger aspirants might jump ship this new centre-right party, the bright boys as they would see themselves, the young Turks, Varadkar, Coveney, (my mind struggles to think of any likely lads in FF but you know what I mean).

The new party would have to draw a line in the sand between itself and the failures of the past. The fact that their ideology would be in essence identical is an irrelevance. What will be important is the new faces, the veneer of change, the youth, the professionalism, the style, the personality politics.

Scary prospect.

I'm not so sure Left: FG have rebranded themselves through o'Duffy Youth who are perceived as being young, new, bright etc. I go to college with them and I know the way they operate . They are more right-wing then Attila the Hun but they hide this in trite phrases such as 'consensus building' 'national interest' 'anti-fees' 'pro-entreprise/Europe/freedom' etc which all sound great to your non-political student or citizen until you look closely at what they really stand for. Fg is discredited but the fact that they are associated among layers of right wingers with a more thatcherite outlook and a 'Young Turk' vanguard, it's likely they may try to 'reclaim' FG and its' national structure, base of canvassers (cos lets face it, any new party such as the one we're talking about isn't likely to attract too many to poster or leaflet for it) and established financial backers rather than set up a new party which runs the risk of being squeezed on the already over-crowded right.