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Thread: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Irish Times v. Sunday Tribune version of IMF reality

    GERMAN FINANCE minister Wolfgang Schäuble has said that he is optimistic that Ireland will be able to pull out of its economic crisis.

    Mr Schäuble rejected suggestions that Ireland’s difficulties were likely to unsettle the financial markets, saying investors would be far more worried if G20 nations failed to cut their deficits in half by 2013 as promised.

    Asked about the growing premiums on Irish and Greek sovereign bonds, he said: “I’m not so pessimistic. The Irish have piled up huge debts because of the rescue efforts for the banks, but are coming along well with the reform of their economy.”
    Mr Schäuble has been caught on so many lies, he makes Pinocchio look like Mother Theresa
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by PaddyJoe McGillycuddy View Post
    I've never seen a reference to this before. Another piece of vital information concealed by Lenihan and the DOF. Have independent economists and banking experts been aware of that option all along?
    I'm not a lawyer but I've been saying all along that the Guarantee was obviously a corrupt act based on lies and would have difficulty withstanding a new Govt rescinding it on that basis. The banks lied, the FF/Green govt lied - but there were enough commentators picking holes in the lies all along that any serious investor doing real due diligence would have been aware of the very serious concerns with the Govt banking policies.

    Basically pretty much everything we've been told about banks in more then 2 years now has been quite deliberate lies, obfuscation, and concealment of the truth. There really was absolutely no need for Ireland to find itself in this position, and the blame for the loss of sovereignty rests firmly and completely on the shoulders of Brian Lenihan.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    I'm not a lawyer but I've been saying all along that the Guarantee was obviously a corrupt act based on lies and would have difficulty withstanding a new Govt rescinding it on that basis. The banks lied, the FF/Green govt lied - but there were enough commentators picking holes in the lies all along that any serious investor doing real due diligence would have been aware of the very serious concerns with the Govt banking policies.

    Basically pretty much everything we've been told about banks in more then 2 years now has been quite deliberate lies, obfuscation, and concealment of the truth. There really was absolutely no need for Ireland to find itself in this position, and the blame for the loss of sovereignty rests firmly and completely on the shoulders of Brian Lenihan.
    They were lying then and they are lying now, but the lie is pathetically exposed now the Ireland can't sell a bond and "the markets" are anxious to divest themselves of anything to do with Ireland.

    We need to stop listening to what they say, and look at what is happening.

    What goes around comes around. In order to divest ourselves of this illegal debt we need first to rid ourselves of the whole political structure and start afresh, with an orderly default and a government that prioritises the people of the country.

    I am coming around to the idea of building Thornton Hall, on reflection on all this.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    The problem here is we are out of time and our FF politicians have almost completed the agenda. Where does one get a new "Political Party" at short notice.

    The deed is done we have handed over the keys. Ireland is just the name of a small periphery on the "outskirts" of a European union. We have been sold out and are no longer a Nation of People but rather a little Island of Slaves with strong backs working hard to serve our masters and pay off the debts of a few.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by ang View Post
    The problem here is we are out of time and our FF politicians have almost completed the agenda. Where does one get a new "Political Party" at short notice.

    The deed is done we have handed over the keys. Ireland is just the name of a small periphery on the "outskirts" of a European union. We have been sold out and are no longer a Nation of People but rather a little Island of Slaves with strong backs working hard to serve our masters and pay off the debts of a few.
    No, ang - we are going to default. It's a question of who will run the default and how.

    We have to do the best we can with the organisations we have and build new ones where needed.

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    No, ang - we are going to default. It's a question of who will run the default and how.

    We have to do the best we can with the organisations we have and build new ones where needed.
    The default will be "controlled" there will be no easing of the pain for the little people.

    The Euro project will be saved at any price. We think we know what default means but believe me this is being worked on already and it will be in some new style which portrays "default" as the saviour of the people but the devil will be in the detail.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by ang View Post
    The default will be "controlled" there will be no easing of the pain for the little people.
    De facto, we are in receivership, "placed in the custodial responsibility for the property of others, including tangible and intangible assets and rights."

    ... with Mr Rehn as the appointed receiver.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Just reread that article. The most Relentlessly depressing piece I have seen on this whole affair. I dont mind admitting put this one kept me up last night. I think to be fair to ourselves, many members of Irish chat sites likes this one have been fairly Wise to whats been happening. (I would say a higher percentage of this site for so than others). Yet nothing prepared me for that. To see it laid out like that is terrifying. Literally.

    In spite of his closing comments, he still offers hope that we can get of of this with a good rate of Interest from the EU. Although he tempers this with the idea what we could make a useful example to the likes of Italy.

    His predictions that a Far right could come to prominence is all too believable.
    Did anyone hear the Paul Sommerville interview on Marian Finicune? Another straight talker, he also offered hope that we can beat this rap but his was very much of a nuke the welfare state approach. There is going to be some savage cuts next year, weather its the EU or ourselves that deliver them. Its very easy to see a Crowd of nutters, with a message of Hate and Blame, can capture the Public mood under the right Circumstances. This kind of thing never really goes away, you can only keep it at heel.

    Im rather pessimistic about the whole thing. I reckon 2011 is going to be a terrible year whether you have a job or not. This country is about to become a Dangerous place to live in. What a Waste.
    The first robot president won by exactly one vote. Ah, yes! John Quincy Adding Machine. He struck a chord with the voters when he pledged not to go on a killing spree. But, like most politicians he promised more than he could deliver.

  9. #24
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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    CF, I think you are going to hard on him. It was well understood what was happening here over the last two years. We all knew and so did the government. They did not walk into a accident for want of advice from him. It is not he fault of MK et al that they did not stop them, nothing was going to stop them. They threw their own party of the fire to keep the train moving. Logic never came into it. The punch and judy show for the public was just that. There never was a real debate in the Dail or anywhere else about what would be done.

    This article is historic. It will be read in 50 years time, it will be on the leaving cert and history courses in University. It tells the truth about a pivotal time in our history. It may not contain a solution, but it contains an honest version of where we currently are. That is gold at this stage.

    Maybe it will wake up the sunny green jersey brigade. Cowen and Lenihan must go immediately and we must have an election. We need to radically alter our path if before we plead for mercy.
    Last edited by Xray; 08-11-2010 at 04:59 PM.
    Mr Lenihan said the guarantee was “the cheapest bailout” compared with bank rescues in other countries, including the UK and the US, where “billions and billions of taxpayers’ money are being poured into financial institutions” - October 24 2008

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    I have every hope that we can emerge again, much better than ever before, but not before extreme difficulty and letting go of historical comfort blankets - completely rewriting who we are and who are our real friends.

  11. #26
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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by BrendanGalway View Post
    Just reread that article. The most Relentlessly depressing piece I have seen on this whole affair.
    +1

    His predictions that a Far right could come to prominence is all too believable.

    This bit I don't agree with, especially his stuff about the Tea Party.
    1. Who would be the founders of such an outfit? We don't have many/any pols who would stand up and be counted on extreme riught wing issues, they're used to being all things to all people. The nearest we might get to Palin is our ex song contest winner.....
    2. What exactly would their platform be? OK, frustration, hate if you like, blame, ok, but what would they offer as an alternative, leaving the EU? and/or leaving the €? Whom would they attract? - McDowall, Dolly Parton, Mary H, - discredited all of them.
    Do you think thyey'd have any support for cutting the dole and the OAP? I mean electable support?? Where would they offer themselves as candidates.

    No, while I think MK is correct in his economic and consequent political analysis, his projections don't stand up. Yes there will be backlash, we have it already, no we won't get a Tea Party. Yes, we'll get some nutters, on both sides of the spectrum, no we won't, not this time anyway, see fundamental change. Not that we don't need some, we do, but real, not nutters.

    Im rather pessimistic about the whole thing. I reckon 2011 is going to be a terrible year whether you have a job or not. This country is about to become a Dangerous place to live in. What a Waste.
    +1+1
    I've said it already several times on here, we simply must get out there and confront the status quo, insist on asking every party what their policy is on Dail reform and political salaries and pensions, just for a start.
    Last edited by barrym; 08-11-2010 at 07:26 PM.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    +1




    This bit I don't agree with, especially his stuff about the Tea Party.
    1. Who would be the founders of such an outfit? We don't have many/any pols who would stand up and be counted on extreme riught wing issues, they're used to being all things to all people. The nearest we might get to Palin is our ex song contest winner.....
    2. What exactly would their platform be? OK, frustration, hate if you like, blame, ok, but what would they offer as an alternative, leaving the EU? and/or leaving the €? Whom would they attract? - McDowall, Dolly Parton, Mary H, - discredited all of them.
    Do you think thyey'd have any support for cutting the dole and the OAP? I mean electable support?? Where would they offer themselves as candidates.

    No, while I think MK is correct in his economic and consequent political analysis, his projections don't stand up. Yes there will be backlash, we have it already, no we won't get a Tea Party. Yes, we'll get some nutters, on both sides of the spectrum, no we won't, not this time anyway, see fundamental change. Not that we don't need some, we do, but real, not nutters.



    +1+1
    I've said it already several times on here, we simply must get out there and confront the status quo, insist on asking every party what their policy is on Dail reform and political salaries and pensions, just for a start.

    Whether they will get anywhere or not, there are people like the traditional Catholic ? Quinn, who is proposing a tea party movement. Likewise Declan Ganley.

    I think a home grown right wing is more probable if there is such a thing, but would never say never.

    The real fear in the Government is the left, and particularly the Republican left.

    I very much agree with you about "getting out there" and confronting the situation.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 08-11-2010 at 08:33 PM.

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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    This article will make a lot of people smell the coffee. The movement towards implosion seems unstoppable.
    Unemployed, bored youth in economic wastelands, social unrest coupled with a resurgent Republican drive, and an apathetic constituency, all set for the perfect storm.
    I also however can't see a rise of the right wing.
    We've had a string of right wing Govts for decades.
    I'd like to see a Chavez type character rise from this.
    Someone who'll tear up all the dodgy contracts like Corrib, change our foreign alliances,zero tolerance for corruption and white collar crime,and put a maximum wage in place.

  14. #29
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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    Quote Originally Posted by PaddyJoe McGillycuddy View Post
    I've never seen a reference to this before. Another piece of vital information concealed by Lenihan and the DOF. Have independent economists and banking experts been aware of that option all along?
    I've thought about this myself for ages. I might've posted about it or I might not.

    Anyway, my thought went something like: If you come to me at 2am some rainy night and say "Hey look, I'm in a pickle, I'm short a few quid and a few debts to cover. I can cover the debts in terms of my assets but just ain't got the funds. If you guarantee all my liabilities I can go get some cash flow sorted out." and then I subsequently agree to be a guarantor to your whole balance sheet and then it emerges that you lied to me about your situation what am I to do? Void the guarantee or carry on and take care of your financials?

    You void the f'n guarantee of course!

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I am still finding it unbelievable that Morgan Kelly has only now come out and proposed a strategy that should have been debated over the summer.

    On your holidays, Morgan???
    Maybe he couldn't get published? Would you be surprised if there was a media blackout on him until the bonds were sorted out?

    Maybe he was off learning how to kill himself...

    Quote Originally Posted by BrendanGalway View Post
    His predictions that a Far right could come to prominence is all too believable.
    Did anyone hear the Paul Sommerville interview on Marian Finicune? Another straight talker, he also offered hope that we can beat this rap but his was very much of a nuke the welfare state approach. There is going to be some savage cuts next year, weather its the EU or ourselves that deliver them. Its very easy to see a Crowd of nutters, with a message of Hate and Blame, can capture the Public mood under the right Circumstances. This kind of thing never really goes away, you can only keep it at heel.

    I think there will be a rise of the Right. I look to my mother who blames the public sector, who pores vengeful vitriol against teachers who threaten strikes. I look to my grandmother who blames the foreigners, the immigrants and "the coloureds". She is of a time when Ireland was the povver and we emigrated. She didn't gain a whole lot from the Celtic Tiger and the one constant she saw over time was immigration.

    Look to Britain at the Conservatives there painting a picture that all welfare recipients are lazy bums who don't wanna work - just last year in the week of the budget RTE aired an expose on welfare fraud here.

    The scapegoats are lined up and ready for a pasting. Protestants, Jews, blacks, whites-that-are-sligtly-darker-complexion-than-most, Eastern-Europeans, Europeans, public sector workers, teachers, public sector workers you come in contact with at the coal face who treat you bad (like at the welfare office), union workers, union workers trying to fight to hold on to basic rights and conditions and so on.

    The story will go something like this: the middle class (income-) taxpayer is getting raped from all angles. It's because of the immigrants, unemployed and public sector; the white income taxpayer is being oppressed and ripped off...

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    +1

    This bit I don't agree with, especially his stuff about the Tea Party.
    1. Who would be the founders of such an outfit? We don't have many/any pols who would stand up and be counted on extreme riught wing issues, they're used to being all things to all people. The nearest we might get to Palin is our ex song contest winner.....
    2. What exactly would their platform be? OK, frustration, hate if you like, blame, ok, but what would they offer as an alternative, leaving the EU? and/or leaving the €? Whom would they attract? - McDowall, Dolly Parton, Mary H, - discredited all of them.
    Do you think thyey'd have any support for cutting the dole and the OAP? I mean electable support?? Where would they offer themselves as candidates.

    No, while I think MK is correct in his economic and consequent political analysis, his projections don't stand up. Yes there will be backlash, we have it already, no we won't get a Tea Party. Yes, we'll get some nutters, on both sides of the spectrum, no we won't, not this time anyway, see fundamental change. Not that we don't need some, we do, but real, not nutters.

    One consequence of our populist center-right parish pump politics is that it's hard for defined left/right parties to get elected, re: PDs. Economically we definitely had center-right govt. but locally FF was a bit lefty trying to keep everyone happy.

    At the minute we might be lucky in that there's no real hardcore right winger that is charismatic enough to whip up the anger and frustration.

    With regards to support: how many middle class voters are there? If the middle incomes start falling rapidly and people are further crippled by their mortgages maybe there the support will be found.


    FG are an oddity I think at the minute since they're a combination of some aul fellas with ties to the rural community and then the right-wingers in the urban areas. Your Varadkars, Creightons and Hayes. Yeah sure at the minute they toe the line a bit with the populism but will this be enough to get them re-elected in the suburbs?


    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    I've said it already several times on here, we simply must get out there and confront the status quo, insist on asking every party what their policy is on Dail reform and political salaries and pensions, just for a start.


    I've been thinking of town hall meetings in each constituency - the people drag the politicians into a hall and a) ask them what they're offering then b) the people tell the politicians what it is they want.

    But it has to be what they/we want on national issues. Not trivial localised issues like who got what GAA pitch re-turfed.

  15. #30
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    Default Re: Morgan Kelly on the next stage of the banking collapse

    We've moved a long way from MK, but that's what discussion is all about.

    I find the reactions to my post on who'd be the Irish Tea Party interesting. I would generally agree there are right wingers around, mainly Catholic ones, and since the older of us generally vote it is a logical constituency for them. However the grey vote is complacent until you touch their "benefits", viz the over 70s medical card, probably the biggest ****-up of all the Bertie/McCreevy cockups. There is already a scare about on touching the OAP, wonder if Ollie Rehn was briefed on that?

    The real options for any change were in the post which mentioned the frustrated, jobless, mortgage holders. My nephew with twins aged 8 and the remains of a 300k€ mortgage got his walking papers yesterday. He is politically active, he'll be joined by others in his situation. The comment that the 'usual suspects' fear the Left could be prescient.

    Until we all really feel the effects, sometime mid 2011? there won't be any form of popular uprising, and even then what shape would it take? Can you see the rural farm based punter linking arms with the 32 county solidarity movement and the Dublin 4 grey haired??

    OTOH, there is a real prospect that the Dec 7th affair won't be passed, triggering a general election, in which they usual suspects will be the majority of the players and we'll get a Lab/FG (in that order?) coalition. Thats what the EU and the ECB wants, a gov with a majority that they can rely on (at least 'til 2014). I'm not even sure that a coalition will last that long, then maybe we'll see political change, but still not what MK preducts, IMO.

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