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Thread: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

  1. #1711

    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Latest forecasts have Florence turning south after landfall.
    The beach communities of the NC "Outer Banks" are connected to the mainland mostly by small bridges, some only by ferry. Lots of bridges will close and ferries will stop running at 8pm tonight. So if you're not out, you're on your own until cleanup.

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...-in-Her-Sights

  2. #1712
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The media usually only report weather incident 'death tolls' on days 1 -2 when bodies haven't been found, and when people are still dying or on their way to hospital. After the hurricanes and floods in Ireland in the last four years, hospitals were jammed for weeks - inevitably there must have been extra deaths, mainly amongst older people, but they were not covered by the press at all.
    Twenty thousand pallets, 38M bottles of water, 10 for each resident, delivered to an airfield in PR in the immediate aftermath of hurricane Maria, are still sitting there, and have now been contaminated by heat and are useless. Feds delivered, but state government who had responsibility for distributing had collapsed.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  3. #1713

    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Twenty thousand pallets, 38M bottles of water, 10 for each resident, delivered to an airfield in PR in the immediate aftermath of hurricane Maria, are still sitting there, and have now been contaminated by heat and are useless. Feds delivered, but state government who had responsibility for distributing had collapsed.
    An "acute inability to govern" from the PR government is what I heard it described as.

  4. #1714
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos Danger View Post
    An "acute inability to govern" from the PR government is what I heard it described as.
    They were essentially bankrupt before the hurricane, and many of their facilities were rendered useless by the storm.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  5. #1715
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Old Town Alexandria, Va 10 miles south of the White House, on the Potomac is prone to flooding. Now that Florence is (unusually) predicted to take a more southerly and westerly track after landfall they may be dodging a bullet.
    Alexandria has already been dealing with a lot of flooding this week from high tide conditions and lots of rain. Here's what it looked like in Old Town on Monday:
    https://thezebra.org/2018/09/10/old-...orence-visits/
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #1716

    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Old Town Alexandria, Va 10 miles south of the White House, on the Potomac is prone to flooding. Now that Florence is (unusually) predicted to take a more southerly and westerly track after landfall they may be dodging a bullet.
    Alexandria has already been dealing with a lot of flooding this week from high tide conditions and lots of rain. Here's what it looked like in Old Town on Monday:
    https://thezebra.org/2018/09/10/old-...orence-visits/
    It'd make it much easier for the members/readers if you confined posts related to Hurricane Florence to, ya know, the Hurricane Florence thread...

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...-in-Her-Sights

  7. #1717
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos Danger View Post
    It'd make it much easier for the members/readers if you confined posts related to Hurricane Florence to, ya know, the Hurricane Florence thread...

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...-in-Her-Sights
    I don't think so. If you had bothered to check, you'd understand that the typical PW reader is used to going to this thread for weather related events. Simple math shows 157 views per post in this thread, v. 7 views per post.
    PW favors long running threads over brief sparks. It's just a stylistic difference from P.ie. If you're gonna stay here you'll have to get used to it.
    I can appreciate that someone who hadn't 10 posts to their name in three years, but felt the need to start a thread announcing they were back, might have difficulty grasping that concept. You strike me as emotionally immature and needy.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  8. #1718
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Nine minute PBS vid of the science involved with the aircraft that fly thru the eye of the storm. This was a flight thru Florence at the weekend.
    83 ft wave recorded at sea on Wed morning.
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fl...more-certainty
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #1719
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.


    Five nuke plants in the path...


    Situational awareness:
    "Duke Energy said Wednesday it expects between 1 million and 3 million of its customers in the Carolinas will lose power because of Hurricane Florence and its aftermath," the Charlotte Observer reports.


    And via the Washington Post: "Federal officials warned that the millions of people in Florence’s sights could be without electricity for weeks, if high winds down power lines and massive rainfall floods equipment."


    Axios' Amy Harder reports ... Several nuclear power plants in North Carolina and nearby states are bracing for the storm, including a plant right in its path with the same design as the Japanese reactors that melted down in 2011 when a tsunami knocked out backup power.


    Why it matters: While the probability is very low, the risk of a storm-fueled accident at a nuclear plant could be devastating and threaten the health of tens of thousands of people living nearby.


    Between the lines: All kinds of energy production and generation get attention only when things could go wrong or have gone wrong — but particularly nuclear given its controversial reputation.


    It’s worth pointing out that nuclear plants have "consistently proven hardy against hurricanes," according to an in-depth News & Observer piece published Wednesday.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  10. #1720
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Well, where I am today it's the blandest of weather; somewhat grey, reasonably mild, dry, not much of a breeze. Dull.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  11. #1721
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    And why wouldn't he blame the D's.........


    WaPo.......

    Trump questions number of deaths attributed to Hurricane Maria, falsely says Democrats created a higher count to make him look bad
    A sweeping report from George Washington University released last month estimated there were 2,975 “excess deaths” in the six months after the storm made landfall in Puerto Rico in September 2017.
    Trump said on Twitter that “they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths” at the time he visited the island after the storm.
    Read more »
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #1722
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.


    In case people don't want to click WaPo

    As Americans face Hurricane Florence's landfall, President Trump inaccurately accused Democrats of fabricating Hurricane Maria's death toll to make him look bad.


    • "3000 people did not die in the two hurricanes that hit Puerto Rico. When I left the Island, AFTER the storm had hit, they had anywhere from 6 to 18 deaths ..."
    • "This was done by the Democrats in order to make me look as bad as possible when I was successfully raising Billions of Dollars to help rebuild Puerto Rico."

    Go deeper: Our reality check on the death toll estimates.
    Between the lines: Even Trump-aligned Florida Republicans shied away from his statements.

    • Gov. Rick Scott (running for Senate) and Rep. Ron DeSantis (running for governor) both publicly defended Puerto Rico's casualty estimates. Their state is now home to hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans who left after the storms.

    What's next:

    • Florence will bring the storm surge equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane and an inland flooding threat of historic proportions.
    • In inland areas, more than 3 feet of rain may fall as the storm lumbers southwest into South Carolina through Saturday.
    • By early next week, heavy rains could spread up the spine of the Appalachians and reach the Mid-Atlantic states.

    The bottom line: The Carolinas will need FEMA and the president on their game, undistracted by cable news and past grudges.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  13. #1723
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    In the US about 8% of hurricane deaths are attributed to wind, more than 70% to water..........




    What sets Hurricane Florence apart
    Data: NOAA HURDAT2, National Hurricane Center; Map: Harry Stevens/Axios
    Hurricane Florence is the first storm in known Atlantic hurricane history to reach the U.S. from where it started in the North Atlantic — all others had recurved harmlessly out to sea from there.
    The big picture: It's also unusually large and slow-moving, as the map above shows, and it's also approaching the coast at a nearly 90-degree angle. These 2 factors are big reasons why the storm is such a concern, and why the cable news buildup to this event is actually (somewhat) warranted.
    Hurricane Florence is a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale as of Thursday afternoon.

    • But that scale only measures the winds inside a storm.
    • Florence will bring a storm surge consistent with a stronger hurricane because of its large wind field.
    • Its slow movement also guarantees astonishing rainfall totals in inland areas.
    • Wilmington, North Carolina, is forecast to break its 7-day rainfall record by more than a foot, and the state of North Carolina may break its all-time record for the wettest tropical cyclone, given the forecast for up to 40 inches of rain.

    Between the lines: This storm illustrates the limits of the official rankings of hurricanes. Once the storm was "downgraded" from a Category 4 to a Category 2 on Wednesday night, Twitter lit up with concerned meteorologists worried that people in harm's way wouldn't take it seriously.
    Even the National Hurricane Center got into the mix, tweeting: "Do not focus on the wind speed category of #Hurricane #Florence! Life-threatening storm surge flooding, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding are still expected."
    By only benchmarking a storm's winds, the Saffir-Simpson Scale ignores the deadliest aspect of a landfalling storm: water.

    • Both storm surge flooding and inland freshwater floodingare a hurricane's deadliest threats by far.
    • So why give the wind the most attention?

    Perhaps it's because high winds used to kill more people in such storms, and the scale was developed by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson in the early 1970s.

    • There have been attempts to move to other scales or tack on storm surge to the current scale. There was an effort to develop a promising metric called the Integrated Kinetic Energy, or IKE, which took into account a storm's total power. However, that failed to catch fire in the hurricane community.
    • Perhaps Florence will jump-start discussions about a new scale, because talk of a storm weakening, when the surge dangers and inland flooding threats remain the same, complicates meteorologists' efforts to communicate deadly threats to the public.

    The bottom line: Some of the country's most expensive hurricanes have been Category 1 or 2 storms, including Ike ($7.3 billion) and Sandy ($70 billion).
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #1724
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    So far, the effects of Florence have been less than anticipated, but it's still early days. Lots of people being rescued from flooding, and water levels continuing to rise and may do for several days.....


    Florence and climate: Here are the ways in which scientists say long-term, human-caused climate change is altering Hurricane Florence.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #1725
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    Default Re: What's it doing where you are? Stormy / Snowy weather thread.

    Fearsome new stage
    AP
    Historic rainfall continues to wreak havoc in the Carolinas, where all-time rainfall records have already been broken, Axios science editor Andrew Freedman writes:

    • A swath of land between Wilmington and New Bern, N.C., is closing in on 40 inches of rainfall, as the heaviest rains begin to shift into a new, treacherous area: The Blue Ridge Mountains.
    • The storm has killed at least 14 people so far, and this number is likely to rise.

    Early this week, flooding is likely to spread from the Carolinas to the Appalachians, northwest Mid-Atlantic (possibly including parts of the Washington area), and on north into New England.
    AP
    Two deadly storms — Hurricane Florence and Typhoon Mangkhut in Asia — roared ashore on the same day, half a world apart, AP's Seth Borenstein writes:

    • "Storms in the western Pacific generally hit with much higher winds and the people who live in their way are often poorer and more vulnerable. ... [T]he Philippines is much poorer than the southeastern United States, which means houses tend to be less sturdy and first responders less well equipped."
    • "Mangkhut may well end up being the deadlier storm."
    • "But Florence's watery insured damage total [may] eventually be higher."
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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