"The 4 Year Plan Will Be Binding" and "May Be Dictated by the EU" Ollie Rehn Runs Ireland

[TotalMayhem]

I think that's a good point. There were a few signs of things getting more active here and then the bye-election was called. A lot of reasons for them to try to bring it to the earliest possible conclusion.

Looks like it:

While the Government doesn’t need to raise money until mid- 2011, Finance Minister Brian Lenihan may use tomorrow’s Brussels meeting to seek aid for the banks.

They certainly want the banks sorted before by-elections or independent TDs can play havoc with the budget (which they couldn't care less about). Just to make sure a possible new government will be stuck with bank debt for good.

[C. Flower]

Well, Labour and Fine Gael seem to have listened to Rehn, on the 4 Year Plan, but not about renegotiation, as he's still saying that the EU interest rate should be lower.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...+International

[Bernie]

I wonder if it might be judicious to await the negotiations instead of presenting this doomsday scenario based on the opinions of a journalist, particularly when the Governor of the Central Bank has suggested differently ?

The editor of the Sunday Business Post, after spending time in Brussels last week interviewing the relevant people, tells us this morning on RTE that the 4-Year Plan for reducing Ireland's budget deficit will be "binding on future Governments".

Ollie Rehn, EU Commissioner, issued instructions for the plan and according to the Irish Times is prepared to "enforce it".

The moment is passing in which the unrepresented people of Ireland can have any say in this.

Cutting the deficit to the timescale and extent that the Government is committing us to and the EU requiring will undoubtedly break the back on the economy and cause a further explosion of unemployment. One third of Irish firms already anticipate job cut back in the next three months.

Double dip recession and a strong euro have put Cowen and Lenhihan's do nothing and wait for an upturn 2 year gamble into the same category of "worst economic decision since WW2 category" as the Banks Guarantee.

Opposition parties are now under enormous pressure to go along with this effective coup, which would have our economic fate bound by Fianna Fail for the next four years without. Neither FG or Labour is opposing the utter nonsense of the proposed cuts.

An immediate General Election is essential, and an opposition must be found that will refuse the poisoned cup being offered to us.



What the Irish Times doesn't explain is that the cheap EU bail out loans obtained by Greece would not be available to Ireland as the Stability Fund is pretty well as costly as the market price (see our previous threads on this).


http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...5.html?via=rel

[C. Flower]

I wonder if it might be judicious to await the negotiations instead of presenting this doomsday scenario based on the opinions of a journalist, particularly when the Governor of the Central Bank has suggested differently ?

When did he suggest that the 4-year plan wasn't binding ?

[Bernie]

The Governor told a meeting on 7 January 2011 that parts of the EU/IMF deal could be renegotiated by an alternative Government plus that they would receive a sympathetic hearing if alternative fiscal proposals were presented. I gather he also said something similar in a recent RTE interview.

When did he suggest that the 4-year plan wasn't binding ?

[Baron von Biffo]

The Governor told a meeting on 7 January 2011 that parts of the EU/IMF deal could be renegotiated by an alternative Government plus that they would receive a sympathetic hearing if alternative fiscal proposals were presented. I gather he also said something similar in a recent RTE interview.

Bernie, posts are much easier to read if you place contribution below the quote you're replying to.

[Bernie]

I sense this stirring rhetoric may not have been launched if the facts has been checked in advance.

[C. Flower]

I sense this stirring rhetoric may not have been launched if the facts has been checked in advance.

Bernie, this thread was started in October. So far as I can see it was absolutely correct in warning, well in advance of most, that the EU set the terms of the 4 year plan and considered the 4 year plan to be a binding commitment and also in stating that the EU interest rate would be punitive.

[Bernie]

I am just bemused why the entire thread appeared unaware that the "4 year plan" may be renegotiated & thus is not binding - based on the publically stated views of the Central Bank Governor on at least 2 occasions since beginning of this year.

[C. Flower]

I am just bemused why the entire thread appeared unaware that the "4 year plan" may be renegotiated & thus is not binding - based on the publically stated views of the Central Bank Governor on at least 2 occasions since beginning of this year.

A thread is not a person, and as such does not have "awareness". If you want it to have certain content (e.g. your view that Ollie Rehn was wrong and Honohan is right), you would need to add it.

[Bernie]

I get it now !!

A thread is not a person, and as such does not have "awareness".

[morticia]

The lovely Ollie has been quoted on the 9 O'clock news headlines (RTE) as saying that "debt sustainability is a problem and a case for lower rates may be made"

Now, just WHAT did Enda say to Angie???

On the other hand, may make very little difference as if the ECB base rates go up, so also will our sovereign debt repayment rates. One step fwd, one step back, perhaps.

[PaddyJoe]

I am just bemused why the entire thread appeared unaware that the "4 year plan" may be renegotiated & thus is not binding - based on the publically stated views of the Central Bank Governor on at least 2 occasions since beginning of this year.

JC Trichet, ECB President 4th Feburary 2011:

Our message to the Irish government is ‘Apply the plan,’” he said. “The plan comprehends a number of measures concerning the economy and reshaping of the banking sector. Our message remains: ‘Apply the plan. Implementation of the plan is absolutely essential, in my opinion and in the opinion of the ECB, for the credibility of the country,

Olli Rehn, EU economics commissioner, 14th February 2011:

“I’m of course following the Irish debate closely and I’m aware that in democratic politics we have freedom of speech and freedom of positions, At the same time, it is clear that the EU has signed the Memorandum of Understanding with the State, with the Republic of Ireland and we expect continuity and respect of the memorandum.”

And:

A spokesman for the European Commission, the EU's executive arm, maintained that the deal wasn't up for negotiation. It was "decided with the state of Ireland," Amadeu Altafaj said Friday. "It's not, let's say, a program that has been agreed with a particular government and is subject to changes because of that."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...NewsCollection

[morticia]

I think they're about to crack. The oil price means no growth. That has obvious implications for debt repayment.

[C. Flower]

I think they're about to crack. The oil price means no growth. That has obvious implications for debt repayment.

There's a lot more to the Plan than the interest rates on the loans.

Cuts and privatisation, for example.

And wind up of the Irish banks.