Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

Brian Lucey and Paul Sommerville on VB Show have spelled out that over 240 billion is to be borrowed with 15 billion a year interest costs - it can't be managed - we only take in 30 billion a year in tax and are spending 50 billion.

Head guy from Pimco has predicted a run on the Irish banks on Bloomberg.

The game is up.

Pimco are one of the Anglo-Irish bondholders according to Senator Norris who read their name into the Oireachtas record against the will of the Cathoirleach yesterday...

I think any major bank making a statement on Ireland should immediately be asked whether they are a bondholder and asked to declare an interest.

[morticia]

I think any major bank making a statement on Ireland should immediately be asked whether they are a bondholder and asked to declare an interest.

aye, aye Cap'n. Preferably before their evil shorting plans demolish my savings...

[PaddyJoe]

Sky is reporting that George Osborne is going to Brussels tomorrow(Sunday) to discuss the Irish bailout plan with EU finance ministers.
Twitter rumors around claiming that the IMF party left the country this afternoon.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Wor...r_Cuts_Protest

[PaddyJoe]

And Reuters confirm the meeting:

(Reuters) - European ministers are expected to sign off on an 85 billion euro ($112.7 billion) rescue for Ireland on Sunday, making it the second euro member after Greece to require a bailout in the face of a crippling debt crisis.

Finance ministers from the 16-nation euro zone are due to meet in Brussels from 1 p.m. (7 p.m. EST) to discuss the emergency loan package Ireland needs to stem mounting losses at its banks and cope with a massive budget deficit.

Ministers from the broader 27-nation European Union will also gather to approve the aid, which will come from a 750 billion euro rescue facility the bloc set up back in May after Greece was pushed to the brink.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE6AO0HG20101127

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

At what point do we get to see the current cabinet led out to a pockmarked wall ... on national tv?

Thats the bit I'm waiting for.

[wickedfairy]

not to mention the fact that the S&Ps of this world are still on the loose, with very questionable talents.................

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8547810.stm

[wickedfairy]

At what point do we get to see the current cabinet led out to a pockmarked wall ... on national tv?

Thats the bit I'm waiting for.

one of the red tops headlines today reckon they are "under armed guard". Guess we won't be seing Pat Carey out in Ballymount again any time soon.

[antiestablishmentarian]

The banks are rising on the back of yesterdays 'bailout' announcement that the junior bondholders would have to help pay for the bailout. BOI is up 19% so far to 31.4 cents a share. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...out-costs.html

[C. Flower]

Nouriel Roubini - one of the people who correctly foresaw the credit crunch - tweeting some very useful analysis.

Nouriel

• Greece & Ireland are solvency not liquidity issues. So official financing & bailing out even bank creditors only kicks the can down the roadabout 1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• My views on fiscal austerityhttp://mobile2.wsj.com/device/articl...29-705118.htmlabout 1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• If EU wants orderly debt restructurings it should include CACs in public debt issued from now on, not that issued after 2013about 7 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• Snowy and freezing Prague! http://yfrog.com/mrno20jabout 7 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• Off to Prague, Hong Kong, Taipei, New Dehli, Miami/ArtBasel, Athens, London and Paris for the next two weeks. The peripatetic life...about 7 hours ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• RGEalerts From Roubini's blog: An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates ... http://bit.ly/ga6lbxabout 19 hours ago via twitterfeedRetweeted by Nouriel and 10 others
  
• #12 in the Foreign Policy List of Top 100 Global Thinkershttp://tinyurl.com/2683eao http://yfrog.com/n1xg90j2:16 PM Nov 28th via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• Flattering to be ranked #12 in the Foreign Policy List of the Top 100 Global Thinkers http://tinyurl.com/2683eao1:51 PM Nov 28th via web
  
• @jmackin2 good point but how many banks are truly insolvent not stressed cause of illiquidity. And isn't wholesale funding playin with fire?1:21 PM Nov 28th via Twitter for BlackBerry® in reply to jmackin2
  
• How many more "Bank of Ireland" are there in Europe that "passed" the fudge stress tests in June and were actually insolvent?3:08 AM Nov 28th via Twitter for BlackBerry®
  
• Convertbond In July, Bank of Ireland claimed a core Tier 1 capital ratio of 8% and "passed" the European Stress Test, now in liquidation #Fraud1:57 AM Nov 28th via webRetweeted by Nouriel and 76 others
  
• RGEalerts From RGE Analysts: Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Othershttp://bit.ly/fCsEzk4:35 PM Nov 26th via twitterfeedRetweeted by Nouriel and 12 others
  
• RGEalerts From Roubini's blog: Roubini's 'Crisis Economics' - NYT Top 10 Books of 2010 http://bit.ly/evEmSj5:57 PM Nov 26th via twitterfeedRetweeted by Nouriel and 9 others
  
• Regardless of the EU bailout unsecured senior debt of Irish banks will be treated once a Labor-Fine Gael coalition comes to power early 20117:37 PM Nov 27th via Twitter for BlackBerry®

[ang]

Irish ten yr. bonds at 9.28% and rising.

Euro down against the dollar.

Anyone up for plan B ?

Woops my mistake nobody FF/GP/EU/IMF thought we would need a plan B, back to the drawing board I suppose.

[C. Flower]

I think maybe it's time we stopped watching the markets and the politicians and made some plans ourselves.

[ang]

I think maybe it's time we stopped watching the markets and the politicians and made some plans ourselves.

I think you could be right on that Cactus.

[janepaisley]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NOzR3UAyXao[/ame]

[C. Flower]

German bonds have started to show the strains today, as the obvious becomes obvious - a lot of German money has been loaned out to people who can't pay it back.

This thread was started in the Spring to look at the risks of Irish default. We are now looking at the collapse of the Euro, with bankrupted economies across the Eurozone. Britain can't stay immune as it exports to us all.

It's a classic and historic capitalist crash at the end of a long boom, the latter part of which was based entirely on fake money.

[C. Flower]

ECB buying last week, and perhaps the budget today, have propitiated the markets, just a small bit. Bond spreads still more than 8%.

Ireland's 10-year bond yield has continued to fall, down to 8.032% - well down on its opening value today #bondwatch