View Poll Results: The Irish Government Will Seek IMF/EU Stability Funds

Voters
153. You may not vote on this poll
  • Before the end of 2010

    59 38.56%
  • Jan-May 2011

    56 36.60%
  • May-Dec 2011

    17 11.11%
  • Later

    6 3.92%
  • Not at all

    15 9.80%
Page 2 of 100 FirstFirst 12341252 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 1492

Thread: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    22,431

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by disability student View Post
    Yeah that Irish Govt bond- 10 year have been increasing steadily since June.

    Any reasons?? Can you remember any event that spooked the market since 6th of August??

    Graph:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?...10YR:IND#chart
    I guess what has spooked the market over the last few days has been the losses by AIB(and the fact that they can't raise extra capital without an extension of the guarantee); the extra capital injection for Anglo approved by the EU and the growing realisation by international investors that the sums just don't add up. And the fact that BOI anounced losses this week as well.
    As already mentioned on another thread here Brian Lucey said that Bank of Ireland are 'the best looking horse in the glue factory'

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Location
    Out of my mind
    Posts
    12,134

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    actually, AIB posted their losses before the 6th of August. since then we heard Richie Boucher's tales of BOI's bright future and granted another billion and a half top up for Anglo.
    Thus all which you call Sin, Destruction—in brief, Evil—that is my true element.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Orderly default, man the pumps, and organise to feed everyone and keep a roof over their heads.

    Under the present governmental regime, if it continues, there will be a lot more deaths than the suicides and untreated patients who've been sacrificed on the altars of capital so far and there won't be room on the outward-going boats for the numbers trying to leave.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Posts
    560

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    The Jeannie Johnson may well have to be pressed back into service. Moored somewhat ironically outside NAMA's office in Dublin - is that right?

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    heart of Europe
    Posts
    22,615

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    I wonder if this 2.5BN is factored in to our borrowing requirement yet.

    As well as making the system “fairer and more equitable”, the reforms are also aimed at addressing a shortfall in the social insurance fund, which is used to pay for PRSI and other welfare benefits. The surplus in the fund is due to run out this year. As a result, it will require exchequer funding of about €2.5 billion this year.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...breaking6.html]
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by disability student View Post
    I think this 2.5BN will have to found somewhere inside the Dept of Sicial protection budget in the form of savings or gains retrieved from fraud prevention controls.
    PRSI is being extended to low paid people and onto "unearned income".

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    heart of Europe
    Posts
    22,615

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    PRSI is being extended to low paid people and onto "unearned income".
    Will politicians unvouched expenses be classified as "unearned income" I wonder?

    It should be. Expenses paid for vouched costs should not be, but no vouching should result in tax.

    I would love to see P B Ahern justify his 10,000 in "travel exenses". When he can't, his 10,000 should be taxed.
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Back onto the topic of Bond sales.....Gurdgiev seems to be saying that we're covered to the end of the year, although the cost of borrowing and of insuring our debt has gone right up. Is that right ?

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    heart of Europe
    Posts
    22,615

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Back onto the topic of Bond sales.....Gurdgiev seems to be saying that we're covered to the end of the year, although the cost of borrowing and of insuring our debt has gone right up. Is that right ?
    Allegedly

    The NTMA raised €15.0 billion in long-term bond funding in the six months to end June 2010
    and, as a result, begins the second half of the year in a very strong funding position. When
    strong sales of the retail State SavingsTM products are factored in, more than 80% of the planned
    €20 billion borrowing in 2010 has already been raised. Taking the maturity profile of the
    NTMA’s short-term borrowing into account, the Exchequer is fully funded through the first
    quarter of 2011.
    http://www.ntma.ie/Publications/2010...ewJuly2010.pdf
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    Surely you don't doubt that ?

    Do we know how much of that was bought by the ECB ?

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by disability student View Post
    What does that mean? Fully funded to cover the fiscal deficit? Or fully funded to cover maturing bonds, bank bailouts and the fiscal deficit?

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Exclamation Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Today's Independent quotes the Deutsche Bank Report we discussed last week - which said that Ireland would need "a fair wind for many years" to survive its indebtedness.
    It also says it has possession of a more recent and even more negative Deutsche Bank report -
    http://www.independent.ie/national-n...d-2297951.html

    A second, harder-hitting memo to staff, obtained by this newspaper, reveals that there has been a marked deterioration in sentiment toward Ireland.
    It said our position was destabilising because of a summer news flow that had become "incrementally worse".
    "In terms of the fiscal deficit, there is no sense that Ireland is pushing for more [than the €3bn], and with Spain and Portugal having delivered supplementary consolidations this summer, Ireland's consolidation plan might look behind the curve.
    "The fiscal deficit is only stabilising and within the details income tax is an element of weakness. Nama, the bad bank, is generating a negative news flow too."
    On the positive side, DB pointed out that, from a sovereign financing perspective, Ireland has been pre-funding, and that by mid-2010 it had already funded 80 per cent of its 2010 requirement.
    Brian Lenihan's assurances that his approach has the support of "the markets" are looking ragged at this stage. NAMA is seen as a chain around our necks.

    The response of "the markets" is of course to demand more cuts - but Deutsche Bank also criticised the Irish Government's reluctance to use Income Tax to raise funds.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    The financial press is in hyper mode over Irish Sovereign default risk.
    The cost of CDS has shot up again to the highest since March 2009. Honohan has issued a statement saying that the Anglo bailout is doable, clearly trying to soothe the market before the imminent bond sale.

    When will he tell the truth and say that what the Government is trying to do is Effing mad ?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...16-705176.html

    Updates prices, adds background, comment.)
    LONDON (Dow Jones)--The cost of insuring Irish sovereign debt against default using credit default swaps hit 300 basis points Monday, its highest level since March 2009, amid concern over the recapitalization of the Irish banking system.
    Ireland's central bank governor, Patrick Honohan, said Monday he expects total spending of EUR22 billion-EUR25 billion to be necessary to fix the now-nationalized Anglo Irish Bank Corp., which suffered huge losses when the nation's property market crashed in early 2009.

    Ireland's banks were hard-hit by the property-market crash. They had made big loans to property developers, many of which ...

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The financial press is in hyper mode over Irish Sovereign default risk.
    The cost of CDS has shot up again to the highest since March 2009. Honohan has issued a statement saying that the Anglo bailout is doable, clearly trying to soothe the market before the imminent bond sale.

    When will he tell the truth and say that what the Government is trying to do is Effing mad ?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...16-705176.html
    Xray's Anglo Shock thread also looks at what is happening to the cost of Irish Sovereign borrowing.

    Another bond sale to watch this morning. Honohan's attempts to talk the market up over the weekend were worthy but transparent.

    Brian Lucey posted a link to an very clear and he says "scary" analysis by Investor Guy on the real risks to the European banking system, with a special focus on the possibility of Sovereign default.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/20...ean-banks.html

    Investor Guy refers the rejection of IMF terms by Hungary that we have discussed here last week and shows how the Stress Tests were unrealistic and ignored the far from remote possibility of sovereign default by at least one European state.

    A highly recommended article!

  15. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,381

    Default Re: Irish Bonds and the ECB - Bond Sales Watch - the Risk of Sovereign Default

    To go with that - "When Irish bonds are Spreading"...

    Chart from FT/Alphaville -

    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...-are-widening/

Page 2 of 100 FirstFirst 12341252 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Share us
Follow Us