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Thread: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

  1. #1
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    Default European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    I know these elections are not held in particularly high regard at home but the last time I was able to vote I managed to be one of those who helped elect the High Ming of Ireland and SFs Matt Carthy in 2014, both of whom I wish were in the Dail AS they are in my view unusually intelligent and progressive representatives. An actual electoral defeat of both FF and FG was a rare hopeful moment for me at 22 years of age. I am less hopeful now, given the less than 38% of Irish voters who currently have their brains switched on.

    In Poland, we have the European elections along with a general election in November.

    The ruling govt. Party PIS, sort of a cross between Orbans Party in Hungary and New Labour, have introduced stuff like 500+ , an actual positive thing that has brought proper child welfare protection to the people at large as Childrens allowance before 2015 was miserly and pathetic, and they have twice raised the minimum wagę, which is still too low in my view at around 2300 zł gross. They have provided an economic home to a few million Ukrainian immigrants and refugees, and allowed thousands more Belarusians to make a better life Herę too. They have also undermined the constitution, the Supreme Court, Eu law, civil rights and press diversity as well as press freedom. Rightwing nationalism is still very small but it is dangerously prezent as Gdańsk President Pawel Adamowiczs assassination in 2018 showed.

    Despite a marginal rise in nationalism, recent radio surveys show over 80% of Poles think leaving the EU would be stupid. Life in Poland is much better than even 10 years ago for most people. There are much worse places in Europę to be an immigrant and though it can be a bit Boring on weekends, it is a safe relaxed place to live. I have never seen any racism in public Herę and there are few places in the EU I imagine that is the case.

    Koalicja Europejska have a reasonable chance of beating PIS in this election. They are a coalition of the PO centrist liberał party, the Green party, the old post Socialist Social Democratic party and others(I think they would make a better govt than the current lot but opinion on this is very divided, almost region by region).

    I think that this site could do with a thread to monitor the EU elections generally as a weathervane for what the future holds. I am expecting Poland and Slovakia to Buck the nationalist trend somewhat(going on recent geopolitical events and opinion polls). France looks likely to lurch more rightwards which may próve fatal to Theresa Mays Brexit plans AS Macron will likely get even more intransigent on any more extensions, lest Front National gain even more traction.

    I am expecting FG to win the EU vote in Ireland as it is likely to be billed as the govt seeking support over Brexit. SF and Indos won the last election but Id be surprised if they can fight off the two cheek FFFG brigade this time.
    Last edited by Apjp; 11-05-2019 at 10:46 PM.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Of course Irish voters abroad cannot vote and even though I speak Polish and would vote for the left of Centre Coalition, the paperwork involved was hardly Worth the effort.

    Does anyone plan on voting?

  3. #3
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    I've never wasted a vote.
    The growth of the far right in Europe and Brext are a two-headed monster.
    "The Opinium survey in The Observer newspaper put the Brexit Party of eurosceptic figurehead Nigel Farage on 34%, doubling its lead over the main opposition Labour Party to 13 points in a fortnight – and on course to get more votes than Britain’s two main parties put together." Tories are on 11%. It is hard to see beyond the potential impact on the EU of Farage x 50 descending on Brussels. Even on his own, he managed to dominate English language EU coverage (mainly because the rest was so unutterably boring). A crash out with the Brexit party negotiating with the EU for a WTO terms trade deal is another car crash prospect.
    But it is an election, and best wait and see the outcome when the votes are cast.

    The Irish local election campaigns are far more lively that the Europeans - getting to be an MEP is a big jolly doled out to party faithfuls in the main, with no boats rocked. I see that Mick Wallis and Clare Daly hope to jointly relocate to Brussels. I think that is a good thing as they have probably said what the can say in the Dail. I have no idea what their view of Brexit is - Clare Daly's former party has been consistently pro-Brexit. How happy am I to see the British Labour Party and self-described Trotskyists and Internationalists in bed with Farage and Boris Johnson ? Not at all, as it happens. It is hard to see where an anti-racist pro worker, pro internationalist front it going to be built and it is urgently needed. There are still Trade Unions about, even though much weakened, so I guess that has to be the starting point.

    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  4. #4
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Bit of a shock for Labour in a RedC poll (Greens 7% and Labour on 5%) and a B&A poll (Greens on 5% and Labour on 4%). If this holds up in the Euros, the Greens might get a seat in Dublin. At a Local Election level, it could be even more damaging for Labour and it could lose some its remaining seats (won 51 seats in the 2014 LEs). Casey does seem to be upsetting the Dublin media and could also get a seat in the Euros.

    Regards...jmcc

  5. #5
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Polls


    ��RedC/SBP #EP2019 MNW Poll��

    McGuinness (FG) 27
    Carthy (SF) 14
    Flanagan (Ind) 12
    Casey (Ind) 10
    Walsh (FG) 10
    Smith (FF) 9
    Rabbitte (FF) 6
    McHugh (GP) 4
    Hannigan (Lab) 3
    Healy-Eames (Ind) 2
    O’Dowd (Ind) 2
    Brennan (Sol-PBP) 1
    Others <1

    (646 adults polled, May 9-16)

    ��RedC/SBP #EP2019 Dublin Poll��

    Fitzgerald (FG) 17
    Boylan (SF) 13
    Andrews (FF) 12
    Cuffe (GP) 11
    Daly (I4C) 9
    Durkan (FG) 8
    White (Lab) 5
    Gannon (SD) 4
    Harrold (Sol-PBP) 4
    Brien (Sol-PBP) 3
    O’Doherty (Ind) 3
    Higgins (Ind) 2
    Others 2 or <2

    (553 adults polled between May 9-16)


    ��RedC/SBP #EP2019 South Poll��

    Kelly (FG) 17
    Ní Riada (SF) 15
    Kelleher (FF) 13
    Byrne (FF) 10
    O’Sullivan (GP) 8
    Wallace (I4C) 8
    Clune (FG) 7
    Doyle (FG) 6
    Nunan (Lab) 3
    Wallace (Sol-PBP) 3
    Minehan (Ind) 2
    O’Flynn (Ind) 2
    Others 1 or <1

    (825 adults polled between May 9-16)

    https://mobile.twitter.com/oconnellhugh
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  6. #6
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    There's more than the Dublin media that should be upset..and worried.. at the rise of gobsh1tes like Peter Casey. Like Trump he'll come out with anything outrageous to get the swivel eyed vote and use politics as a vehicle for his own personal business.

    Not making massive headlines so I'd say he'll drop at least one controversial bombshell comment tomorrow night on the TV debate that will be reminescint of the presidential campaign and launch him up the polls.

    Cue attacks on foreigners, travellers and welfare recipients. Like foreigners stealing our broadband bandwidth...topical.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Well I am voting (and leafletting) Clare Daly here in Dublin as whatever may be wrong with her, she has done a lot on crime/policing just by hightlighting the whistleblower issue in the Dail . The no 1 achilles heel of the Left . As to the future a victory might help the advancement of Independents for Change into a party proper to finally provide a real Labour version? Lacking an organisation everywhere is a problem so nothing can be assumed even if the polls are hopeful . For my home Midlands NW , the poll for Ming and Carthy looks hopeful too . SF's Carthy is impressive and it would be a pity to loose either . The Shinner here is a bit lack lustre but seems a decent sort so no2 or thereabouts . While the minor left and ext left candidates have their pros and minuses they all seem no hopers. I am sad that Razem seem to have fallen into a through in Poland and the old left pretty much too ?

  8. #8
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    There's more than the Dublin media that should be upset..and worried.. at the rise of gobsh1tes like Peter Casey. Like Trump he'll come out with anything outrageous to get the swivel eyed vote and use politics as a vehicle for his own personal business.

    Not making massive headlines so I'd say he'll drop at least one controversial bombshell comment tomorrow night on the TV debate that will be reminescint of the presidential campaign and launch him up the polls.

    Cue attacks on foreigners, travellers and welfare recipients. Like foreigners stealing our broadband bandwidth...topical.
    Yes. The far right is crawling out from under the floor boards everywhere. Ireland is not immune and they will get votes.

    Dublin -
    "Harrold (Sol-PBP) 4
    Brien (Sol-PBP) 3"

    That looks like too many people and not enough solidarity.

    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  9. #9
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Surprising they managed to ally in 1st place (and more splitting off over time as they get burnt out) . (dissident) Republicans have the same problem funnily enough . Stalinist_tradition people too (where historically they have been strong anyhow). And even social democrat and social liberal now in places. Yet to be defined mental health problem I think. The notion that there are correct paths to follow in the chaos of reality when it is clear that no one path is enough in addition to more obvious stupidities (when you've been the victim of violence enough) re certain weaknesses where people are actually proud of such . The creation of a more sensible broad party/coalition will not be that easy . A lot depends on whether Corbynism can survive I think (and of course the much more pressing nature of cuts over there are additional pressure to get 'real' )

  10. #10
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    Default Re: European Elections-Poland, Ireland and wherever else

    Noticed just two leaflets at my letterbox- SF and FG. Mainstream FFG very quiet in Cork. Walked past Micheal Martin & B Kelleher outside main shopping centre last week. Didnt like the look of Micheal Martin as it was unfriendly and bit grey. Me thinks FG is gone. Maybe FF just wait and see until outcome of the votes this weekend.

    If you vote for FF it means that FF will support FG or vice versa. NO big thanks.

    Received my polling card as i havent voted for a long time. I intend to vote for independents just 1st and 2nd preferences and thats it. i don't want FFGLAB get 3rd or 4th or 5th preferences so on. Therefore i am restricting my voting preferences to just two so that FFFGLAB gets nothing at all whatsoever.

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