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Thread: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    I can't speak for before the crash but since then 24%+ is an average enough undecided figure. During the 2011-2016 period the undecideds were hitting 33% whenever the Govt of the day were doing really badly in the polls like when the Irish Water fiasco was in full flow. By the time of the last opinion polls of a GE campaign the undecided go down to 12% type figures as voters have largely made up their mind by then. There's a train of thought that says that those 12% undecideds in eve of GE opinion polls don't even bother to go voting.


    As for a bit of right-wing demagoguery. I know we live in crazy times but I don't think too many Irish voters are willing to go further to the right than FG and FF.

    There are plenty of Irexit type loons of various hues on line but for now at least in Ireland they are way less common in real life as it were.

    There's only one way to whip up hate in this country and that's towards Travellers but even on that score it'd be close to impossible to get a new right-wing party off the ground on that single issue.
    Typically, 30+% don't bother going out voting, so any poll that had 100% of respondents with their minds made up would be well dodgy.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    So, a 3% increase in votes would have delivered a 47% increase in seats.
    Seems to me that at the margins (and that's where elections are won), the PR system does not perform a whole lot better than FPTP. I recognise there are other benefits to PR, and multi as opposed to single seat constituencies also contribute.
    It's not a 3% increase, it's a 3 percentage point increase, which would have been about a 22% increase in their vote.

    They got 13.82% of first prefs, and 914 or just under% of seats. And additional 3 percentage points to 16.82% would, on the guesstimate above, have resulted in 24 or just over 19% of seats. So that would have been pretty much on or about par, if you measure electoral support in terms of first prefs only, ignoring transfers. Of course, in STV, that's not a very good way to measure electoral support, really.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  3. #18
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Typically, 30+% don't bother going out voting, so any poll that had 100% of respondents with their minds made up would be well dodgy.
    That 30%+ don't bother to vote figure is based on the electoral register which is itself very likely to be full of people who have emigrated or moved away from their parents homes years ago. For instance my daughter's voting card still arrives to the house at every election despite her having moved out years ago. Also there are many people who can't turn out to vote due to chronic illnesses making the whole business of voting too arduous a task to get around to.

    The 69.9% turnout in the 2011 general election is about the limit of what can be expected turnout-wise in Ireland, so IMO the usual 64-65% type turnouts in important referenda and GEs is a very healthy figure.

  4. #19
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    That 30%+ don't bother to vote figure is based on the electoral register which is itself very likely to be full of people who have emigrated or moved away from their parents homes years ago. For instance my daughter's voting card still arrives to the house at every election despite her having moved out years ago. Also there are many people who can't turn out to vote due to chronic illnesses making the whole business of voting too arduous a task to get around to.

    The 69.9% turnout in the 2011 general election is about the limit of what can be expected turnout-wise in Ireland, so IMO the usual 64-65% type turnouts in important referenda and GEs is a very healthy figure.
    Equally, the register doesn't include the 'can't be arsed' sector of the potential electorate. It's impossible to know if they balance out, but it might be close enough.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    It's not a 3% increase, it's a 3 percentage point increase, which would have been about a 22% increase in their vote.

    They got 13.82% of first prefs, and 914 or just under% of seats. And additional 3 percentage points to 16.82% would, on the guesstimate above, have resulted in 24 or just over 19% of seats. So that would have been pretty much on or about par, if you measure electoral support in terms of first prefs only, ignoring transfers. Of course, in STV, that's not a very good way to measure electoral support, really.
    Got it. Thx.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Equally, the register doesn't include the 'can't be arsed' sector of the potential electorate. It's impossible to know if they balance out, but it might be close enough.
    A very good point, but historically most people were added to the register without having to apply to get on it. In recent times people are not simply being added to the register by eager party members as they were in the past, so theoretically as time marches on the can't be arsed brigade will practically disappear from the register. All things being equal that should raise voter turnouts in the future.

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    That 30%+ don't bother to vote figure is based on the electoral register which is itself very likely to be full of people who have emigrated or moved away from their parents homes years ago. For instance my daughter's voting card still arrives to the house at every election despite her having moved out years ago. Also there are many people who can't turn out to vote due to chronic illnesses making the whole business of voting too arduous a task to get around to.

    The 69.9% turnout in the 2011 general election is about the limit of what can be expected turnout-wise in Ireland, so IMO the usual 64-65% type turnouts in important referenda and GEs is a very healthy figure.
    The electoral register was checked here about four years ago - I bumped in to a man in the street and he asked me who was living at my address eligible to vote. I get the impression that the process was pretty rough and ready and relied to some extent on second hand information, but would have picked up a lot of the emigration that has happened post crash. On the other hand we have a significant immigrant population. Has any work been done on their voting pattern ? In the UK people from all origins tend to vote down class lines, but those aren't so obvious in Ireland.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  8. #23
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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The electoral register was checked here about four years ago - I bumped in to a man in the street and he asked me who was living at my address eligible to vote. I get the impression that the process was pretty rough and ready and relied to some extent on second hand information, but would have picked up a lot of the emigration that has happened post crash. On the other hand we have a significant immigrant population. Has any work been done on their voting pattern ? In the UK people from all origins tend to vote down class lines, but those aren't so obvious in Ireland.
    Unless they've taken out Irish citizenship there will be limitations on which elections immigrants can vote in:

    • Irish citizens may vote at every election and referendum
    • British citizens (identified by the letter 'D' on the Register) may vote at Dáil elections, European elections and local elections
    • Other European Union (EU) citizens (identified by the letter 'E' on the Register) may vote at European and local elections*
    • Non-EU citizens (identified by the letter 'L' on the Register) may vote at local elections only.


    http://www.citizensinformation.ie/en...te.html#l5ab58
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

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