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Thread: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

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    Default Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Can Sinn Fein translate that support into seats ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Can Sinn Fein translate that support into seats ?
    Yes and No, most definitely they can't hope to break 20% in a GE not at this stage of their growth in the ROI. There are just far too many constituencies where they have little to no hope of breaking 10%. Galway East, Roscommon-Galway, DunLaoighre, Kildare South, Tipperary and a few other rural 3 seaters where they are anaemic.


    Having said that an extra 3% in 2016 would have given them 10 more seats, so maybe that's the kind of rise in support for them that's most possible at this stage.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Can Sinn Fein translate that support into seats ?
    If they can't, why bother with proportional representation?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    A list that could produce those 10 seats that SF would have taken if they'd got an extra 3% first preference vote in GE 2016.


    Donegal lost the last seat by less than 200 votes in 2016

    Wexford lost by a few hundred votes in 2016

    Clare lost the last seat when 600 ( 1% ) votes behind the winner on the 3rd last count

    Longford-Westmeath lost by 1.3% in 2016

    Galway West lost by 1.8% in 2016

    Meath East lost by 3.4% in 2016

    Cavan Monaghan lost a second seat by being 2% behind the winner of the last seat on the 3rd last count.

    Dublin Bay South knocked out when 2% behind the winner of the last seat on the 3rd last count.

    Mayo knocked out on the 2nd last count when 2.5% behind the last seat winner.

    Sligo-Leitrim knocked out on the 4th last count when 2.7% behind the winner of the last seat.


    There are 10 seats that could have fallen to SF off just 3% more in 2016, this poll is a 9.1% increase ( totally not going to happen

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Yes and No, most definitely they can't hope to break 20% in a GE not at this stage of their growth in the ROI. There are just far too many constituencies where they have little to no hope of breaking 10%. Galway East, Roscommon-Galway, DunLaoighre, Kildare South, Tipperary and a few other rural 3 seaters where they are anaemic.


    Having said that an extra 3% in 2016 would have given them 10 more seats, so maybe that's the kind of rise in support for them that's most possible at this stage.

    So, a 3% increase in votes would have delivered a 47% increase in seats.
    Seems to me that at the margins (and that's where elections are won), the PR system does not perform a whole lot better than FPTP. I recognise there are other benefits to PR, and multi as opposed to single seat constituencies also contribute.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    So, a 3% increase in votes would have delivered a 47% increase in seats.
    Seems to me that at the margins (and that's where elections are won), the PR system does not perform a whole lot better than FPTP. I recognise there are other benefits to PR, and multi as opposed to single seat constituencies also contribute.
    It's complicated. GE 2016 was a very strange Election in that the big parties ( FG/FF/SF/Lab ) only got about 70% of the vote and the rest was divided out between a smorgasbord that included some very well organised Left Wing micro parties and well established Independents formerly linked to FF and FG with another huge tranche of first time out type chancers trying to take advantage of the then chaotic political scene.

    FG, FF and SF all got a seat bonus in comparison to their percentages of first preference votes as the legions of no-hopers melted away and transferred to them.

    Unlike FPTP the losing transferring votes in the PR system generally stayed within the ideological bent of their original choices. So even amongst the chaos there was order.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 20-11-2018 at 08:19 PM.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    So the PR system is not without its problems either. What a relief!
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    So the PR system is not without its problems either. What a relief!
    Most would say that the army of Independents elected under PR in the last few General Elections is bad for forming a stable Govt because the traditional big parties nearly always need to buy off a few of them to make the numbers work. I'd say that once the Independents are bought off they are incredibly loyal to the Govt they signed up to while the parties themselves tend to lose loads of their own TDs when the going gets tough.

    Someone reminded me today of when a Govt in the 80s fell when just one TD ( Jim Kenny ) left his party over VAT being put on children's shoes. I definitely prefer multi-party Govts and I'm quite happy with the way the cross party working groups provide recommendations that many of our parties are happy to go along with. There's not so much gridlock that way.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    The Core support figures in this poll were

    FG 21, SF 20, FF 19, Ind-Other 11%, Labour 4%, Undecided 24%

    For a comparison in the last B&A before GE 2016 the Core support figures were

    FG 24%, FF 19%, SF 14%, Labour 4%, Ind-Other 24%, Undecided 17%


    That makes sober reading for those who imagine FG are on well over 30%s

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    The Core support figures in this poll were

    FG 21, SF 20, FF 19, Ind-Other 11%, Labour 4%, Undecided 24%

    For a comparison in the last B&A before GE 2016 the Core support figures were

    FG 24%, FF 19%, SF 14%, Labour 4%, Ind-Other 24%, Undecided 17%


    That makes sober reading for those who imagine FG are on well over 30%s
    Historically speaking, is 24% a very high 'undecided' ? I hope this does not mean that Ireland is waiting for the right kind of crazy to come along as seems to be the global trend.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Historically speaking, is 24% a very high 'undecided' ? I hope this does not mean that Ireland is waiting for the right kind of crazy to come along as seems to be the global trend.
    I can't speak for before the crash but since then 24%+ is an average enough undecided figure. During the 2011-2016 period the undecideds were hitting 33% whenever the Govt of the day were doing really badly in the polls like when the Irish Water fiasco was in full flow. By the time of the last opinion polls of a GE campaign the undecided go down to 12% type figures as voters have largely made up their mind by then. There's a train of thought that says that those 12% undecideds in eve of GE opinion polls don't even bother to go voting.


    As for a bit of right-wing demagoguery. I know we live in crazy times but I don't think too many Irish voters are willing to go further to the right than FG and FF.

    There are plenty of Irexit type loons of various hues on line but for now at least in Ireland they are way less common in real life as it were.

    There's only one way to whip up hate in this country and that's towards Travellers but even on that score it'd be close to impossible to get a new right-wing party off the ground on that single issue.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Most would say that the army of Independents elected under PR in the last few General Elections is bad for forming a stable Govt because the traditional big parties nearly always need to buy off a few of them to make the numbers work. I'd say that once the Independents are bought off they are incredibly loyal to the Govt they signed up to while the parties themselves tend to lose loads of their own TDs when the going gets tough.

    Someone reminded me today of when a Govt in the 80s fell when just one TD ( Jim Kenny ) left his party over VAT being put on children's shoes. I definitely prefer multi-party Govts and I'm quite happy with the way the cross party working groups provide recommendations that many of our parties are happy to go along with. There's not so much gridlock that way.
    Shaadi, I thought you were an oul fella. I'm obviously older, coz I remember it. The guy's name wasn't Kenny, it was Kemmy, from Limerick.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Shaadi, I thought you were an oul fella. I'm obviously older, coz I remember it. The guy's name wasn't Kenny, it was Kemmy, from Limerick.
    I'm auld enough, born in the 60s when this place to me was a curious mixture between home providing a happy go lucky childhood and a huge dollop of crazy of the nuns and priests running the schools on top of that.

    Kenny was an autocorrect blooper. I remember Jim Kemmy reasonably well, although to me he was a peripheral part of the Irish political scene. He ended up being a larger than life character with IIRC his own DSP party. Kind of a secular Paisley with all that larger than life ambition and ego. He's supposedly beloved in Limerick now that he's passed on. There's even the irony of the billionaire J P McManus building a business school in the University Of Limerick on the provisio that it was named after the Trade Unionist and Socialist Kemmy.


    Kemmy was very much all about Limerick in the way that people from big and small towns tend to think the world ends on the outskirts of their hometown.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 27-11-2018 at 06:15 PM.

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    Default Re: Sun Times-B&A 18-11-18 FF, 27 (-), FG-30 (-1), SF 23 (+4)

    I assume we'll be having more of the same after the next GE a minority Fg Govt. propped up by Indos +FF abstaining.
    “philosophy lives from everything which happens to the philosopher and his times.”

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