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Thread: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

  1. #16
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    Detailed Results are online here (for House, Senate and Governors) displayed on the CNN map https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/house
    In Brief Republicans won in the Senate gaining 3 net because the Dems were defending in most cases (1/3rd of the seats 33 were up) , Florida always close, Indiana lost to Trump mania big time, N Dakota a no hoper rural state and Missouri another swing state. Dems gained only Nevada
    In the House (where all 435 were up) the Dems gained over 20 to 223 to Reps 199 , seen as a small swing not the hoped for big wave
    Among Governor races the Dems gained 7 to 23, the Reps lost 6 to 26 (not all were up, so this is a big shift back to the Dems (one big hope Florida was close , but Gillem the black progressive just lost out, another Maryland a trad Dem state had the Rep outspending the black prog Dem Jealous 20 to 1. Many voters did not know who Jealous even was and so ) . https://theintercept.com/2018/11/07/...s-larry-hogan/

    For the State Races Ballotpedia gives messy details eg New York with several prog wins inc the 27 year old DSA-er Julia Salazer in Brooklyn (State Senate distict 18 , a safe Dem seat) and Andrew Gounardes a Working Familes Party candidate who took a swinger in Brooklyn South (State Senate distict 22) https://ballotpedia.org/New_York_Sta...lections,_2018

    The Real News commentators are implying that corporate Democrats (obviously) cant offer a real alternative and so it's quite a wimpy shift. The huge money as obvious from Maryland was often directed to keep the left out and mostly that worked sadly .. More coming today will cover the limited good news I think . There were gains at the State Level to offset the dissapointment in Congress (just a handful) https://therealnews.com/

    Democracy Now's coverage is more mixed. Sometimes good this report is quite wooly in describing Texas Dem Beto O ORourke as 'progressive' for instance. O Rourke raised more many than anyone else maybe so can hardly be IMO. But of course it was nice to see him give the Reps a Senate scare in Texas . https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11...essives_poised
    The conclusion is significant though 'who came out, 113 million people, in these midterm elections, compared to something like 83.3 million in 2014. But still, that is a half the population, the voting-age population, did not vote.'
    ie - a lot of work remains to be done

    The full extent of the House swing to the D's is not yet known. 12-15 races are still undecided, and may go to recounts. Looks like there will also be a recount in the Florida Senate race.
    Values are relative Beto O'Rourke may not be progressive by EU standards but he certainly is by Texas standards. Civil War hero General Philip H. Sheridan once quipped, "if I owned Texas and Hell, I'd rent Texas and live in Hell".
    Not sure what you're referring to by corporate money in Md. It's not a swing state and therefore doesn't attract big outside money. The money goes where the fights are tight.
    The failure of the D candidate for Guv,in Md was more to do with politics than money. Because Jealous was an upset win in the primary, had never held elective office previously, the D establishment failed to rally behind him because "he is not one of us". Plus, for an R in Md, the Guv is popular.

    Broadly, the D's suffer from the urban/rural divide. The 10 most populous states, mostly but not entirely D leaning ,have a combined population of 175M and 20 Senators. The 10 least populous mostly R have a combined 10M, and also 20 Senators.
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  2. #17
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    One more for the D's........

    GOP Rep. Karen Handel concedes one of Georgia's hardest fought congressional races to first-time candidate Democrat Lucy McBath
    McBath is an anti-gun violence advocate who jumped into the race at the last minute, citing February's mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Fla., that left 17 dead. Her 17-year-old son was fatally shot in 2012 by a man who had argued with the teen and his friends about loud music coming from their car.
    "After carefully reviewing all of the election results data, it is clear that I came up a bit short on Tuesday," Handel wrote in a Facebook post.
    Read more »
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    The full extent of the House swing to the D's is not yet known. 12-15 races are still undecided, and may go to recounts. Looks like there will also be a recount in the Florida Senate race.
    Values are relative Beto O'Rourke may not be progressive by EU standards but he certainly is by Texas standards. Civil War hero General Philip H. Sheridan once quipped, "if I owned Texas and Hell, I'd rent Texas and live in Hell".
    Not sure what you're referring to by corporate money in Md. It's not a swing state and therefore doesn't attract big outside money. The money goes where the fights are tight.
    The failure of the D candidate for Guv,in Md was more to do with politics than money. Because Jealous was an upset win in the primary, had never held elective office previously, the D establishment failed to rally behind him because "he is not one of us". Plus, for an R in Md, the Guv is popular.

    Broadly, the D's suffer from the urban/rural divide. The 10 most populous states, mostly but not entirely D leaning ,have a combined population of 175M and 20 Senators. The 10 least populous mostly R have a combined 10M, and also 20 Senators.

    Well yes the Maryland's state Democrats Establishment completely failing to support Jealous was a major factor sadly. Hogan obviously benefited from corporate money and Jealous little or none. Hogan yes being one of the odd 'liberal Republicans' remaining
    https://theintercept.com/2018/11/07/...s-larry-hogan/
    'At the end of August, Hogan had $9.4 million to spend for his re-election campaign, compared to Jealous’s mere $385,000. And the gap never closed. In the final two weeks of the campaign, Hogan had almost 12 times more cash than Jealous, or $3.3 million to the Democrat’s $275,000. Few people wanted to donate to a race that seemed uncompetitive, which in turn made it even less competitive as the weeks went on.'
    I would agree there seems to be a minor shift left overall which is significant considering the tax cuts and repatriated corporate money fuelled boom which has fooled many rural voters especially . It is confined to urban and suburban areas in the main , with a shift right in rural and some rustbelt areas evident to complicate (eg West Virgina and Indiana)
    Last edited by GregTimo; 09-11-2018 at 12:43 PM.

  4. #19
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    My usual source Real News failed to come up with comprehensive details yet I'm afraid (maybe suffering election burnout) . Anyhow DSA have there own news detailings wins.
    https://www.dsausa.org/news/ Easier to follow here https://twitter.com/DemSocialists or https://twitter.com/hashtag/DSAinOffice?src=hash
    Mostly at city council level, they were several state legislature gains inc one in Montana (surprise), one in N Dakota (surprise) , Hawaii (trad Dem state) , Colorado, New York , Maine , Rhode Island, 2 in Maryland and Pennsylvania , 10 in all I think
    Federal gains were limited to 2 official DSA Ocasio-Cortez in New York , Rashida Tlaib in Michagan but also Ilhan Omar (the Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party's nominee supported by Cortez) (see
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/06/p...women-congress )
    I would note that candidates often receive endorsements from several organisations, so some of the winners at State and local may not be DSA members
    And I know a Working Families candidate supported By DSA also won in New York taking a swinger in Brooklyn South https://therealnews.com/stories/juli...-the-beginning The Working Families claim 12 candidates endorsed by them won in the New York Senate alone by the way . They sound quite wooly though but can be considered as wider progressives of an old style social liberal bent http://workingfamilies.org/2018/11/t...ction-results/ https://www.facebook.com/WorkingFamilies

    The Intercept often linked by both TRNN/Real News and Democracy Now have a messy article which missed a lot of stuff on the DSA and WFP news https://theintercept.com/2018/11/08/...nt-hear-about/

    In Congress the seemingly very wooly "Progressive Caucus" overall made some gains and now has slightly more than the 78 members they had (maybe 84?) (but still only Bernie Sanders as the only Senator, the sometimes progressive Senator Elisabeth Warren doesnt bother which show just how wooly she is) and hopefully will update their page sometime soon https://cpc-grijalva.house.gov/index...ctiontree=2,71
    I would note, the DSA-er Tlaib plans to join but Cortez wants a more solid sub-caucus as well in old pre election news https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...ressive-caucus
    Somewhat dissapointing results detailed in this messy article (the 5 losers were not incumbents so it details 6 gains inc 3 actual left in fact) https://www.vox.com/2018/11/7/180717...elections-2018
    I would note the concept of 'progressive' (in the US sense) is maddenly vague and related to old style 'social liberal' (FDR period), that concept having long being hijacked by neo-libs (and worse) similar to 'social democrat' in Europe. Each politician will have to be judged by what they actually do in office
    Last edited by GregTimo; 09-11-2018 at 12:28 PM.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    Well yes the Maryland's state Democrats Establishment completely failing to support Jealous was a major factor sadly. Hogan obviously benefited from corporate money and Jealous little or none. Hogan yes being one of the odd 'liberal Republicans' remaining
    https://theintercept.com/2018/11/07/...s-larry-hogan/
    'At the end of August, Hogan had $9.4 million to spend for his re-election campaign, compared to Jealous’s mere $385,000. And the gap never closed. In the final two weeks of the campaign, Hogan had almost 12 times more cash than Jealous, or $3.3 million to the Democrat’s $275,000. Few people wanted to donate to a race that seemed uncompetitive, which in turn made it even less competitive as the weeks went on.'
    I would agree there seems to be a minor shift left overall which is significant considering the tax cuts and repatriated corporate money fuelled boom which has fooled many rural voters especially . It is confined to urban and suburban areas in the main , with a shift right in rural and some rustbelt areas evident to complicate (eg West Virgina and Indiana)
    That intercept article gets it about right. The only quibble I have is that even in a small (but wealthy) state like Md. Hogan's $9.3M was not a huge amount of money for a Guv race. It was more about failure by Jealous to attract money, than Hogan busting fundraising records.

    The experience with Jealous in Md, serves to highlight the problem for D's in the 2020 Prez election. The Electoral College serves to negate D's vote advantage (2000 & 2016), so there is danger in choosing a candidate that is seen by some as too progressive. US is still a 49/51 country moving toward 48/52.
    I'm a registered D living in Md, and voted for Hogan. One of the few times I have voted R. Did it for a variety of reasons. I don't like Trifectas either R or D where one party controls all levers of power. It breeds arrogance. I was annoyed that the D establishment were slow and tepid in their endorsements of Jealous, not team players, and wanted to stick it to them. Hogan has governed as a centrist. I like that.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    The Hill...........


    GOP nerves on edge after Sinema takes lead over McSally
    Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) has taken a narrow lead over Rep. Martha McSally(R) in a hotly contested race for a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona after a wave of ballots from Maricopa County broke heavily toward the Democrat on Thursday night.

    Now, with about half a million votes left to count, Republicans are nervous that the votes left to be counted will favor Sinema.
    Read the full story here


    Looks like there may be up to six recounts in Florida. Three statewide, and three local.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    With nine House seats still unresolved, the D's are 228 -198. Just to put the Blue Wave in context, when all's said and done, this will likely be the biggest swing to the D's since the post Watergate election of 1974.


    Dana, has been Russia's man on the Hill, long before Spanky...... Very red district in Ca.

    WaPo.......

    Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a pro-Russia Republican, narrowly loses long-held House seat, AP projects
    The California congressman, who was elected in 1988, has been outspoken in his support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, even defending Russia's invasion of Ukraine. He also is one of President Trump's strongest backers. Democrat Harley Rouda defeated Rohrabacher in the Orange County congressional district.
    Read more »
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Nice to see, though it is confusing to see the very different speeds of counting across the USA. Sinema I see was Green but became a centrist and is very likely in the corporate Democrat camp so not that exciting. Florida Senate count is still going and Florida Governor is being recounted now and Georgia still not decided , It would be nice to see Gillem and Abrams win but I dont know how much hope there is of upsets there .
    https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/08/p...and/index.html

    Any for DSA fans/watchers like myself, the 2 new congesswomen were interviewed on Democracy Now last week
    Wednesdays interview with Ocasio-Cotez is stirring stuff. https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11...asio_cortez_we

    Tlaib 2 parter from Friday . A member of the DSA, she is the 1st Palestinian American to get elected at federal level and representing a district in Detroit, Michigan (the 3rd poorest in the USA) . Some don't like her because (it has been said) she doesnt go far enough on Palestinian rights, but never mind she represents the equiv of North Inner City Dublin an area with manifold problems itself and will have to try to do something for her city . I think it is quite remarkable to see her elected, but do not envy her task
    https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11...trump_occupied
    And that got connected to the Yemen thing in the sort of 2nd part https://www.democracynow.org/2018/11...peace_activist

  9. #24
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    One of the curiosities of US federal elections is that the feds have no role, except occasionally in the courts, but even that is usually in state court. Each state controls its own elections, with different protocols. Some states count absentee ballots (military overseas etc.) as they arrive, others wait until after election day.


    Sinema has been extending her lead over McSally day by day. Both of them could still end up in the Senate if McSally loses here, but in January gets appointed by the R Az Gov to serve the remainder of John McCain's term.


    The outlook for the Fl Senate is good. There appears to be a 30,000 undercount maybe due to bad ballot design in the heavily D Broward County. That does not transfer to the Governor's race so the outlook for Guillem is not as good. Each county in each state has a different ballot, to take account of local races and referenda on things such as bond issuance for school construction. On my ballot I had to make 40+ choices, and that's by no means the highest.


    Don't hold your breath on a DSA takeover. The debate has already begun on 2020. Do you want a left candidate that will inspire you, or a centrist candidate who can win? Most will opt for win.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Kyrsten Sinema (D) has officially won the AZ Senate race. She becomes the first D to win in AZ since 1988, the first woman ever, and the first openly bisexual in the Senate.


    The current state of the Senate is R 51, D 47, and two, Fl and Mississippi unresolved. If those two fall to the D's (a not unreasonable possibility), there is no change in the Senate.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Axios.......


    A week after the voting, Democrats are riding higher than they thought on election night, AP's Steve Peoples writes:

    • "Democrats ... have now picked up at least 32 seats in the House — and lead in four more — in addition to flipping seven governorships and eight state legislative chambers."
    • Democrats "are on track to lose two seats in the Senate ... Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema [who will be the nation's first openly bisexual senator] won Arizona's Senate race [yesterday], beating Republican Rep. Martha McSally to take the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake."

    Why it matters: "The overall results in the first nationwide election of the Trump presidency represent the Democratic Party's best midterm performance since Watergate."

    • "Over the last week we've moved from relief at winning the House to rejoicing at a genuine wave of diverse, progressive and inspiring Democrats winning office," said Ben Wikler, Washington director of the liberal group MoveOn.

    "Democrats needed to gain 23 seats to seize the House majority. ... [T]hey could win close to 40."

    • Democrats could win as many as 19 House races in districts carried by Trump two years ago.
    • Ten House races remain too close for AP to call.

    Democrats "flipped governorships in seven states: Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Kansas, New Mexico and Maine."

    • "Republicans now control 25 governorships nationwide compared to 23 for Democrats. High-profile contests in Florida and Georgia remain outstanding, though Republicans hold narrow leads in both states."

    Democrats "flipped state legislative chambers in eight states this midterm season, including Washington state's Senate in 2017."

    • The others: state Senates in Maine, Colorado, New York, New Hampshire and Connecticut, in addition to the state Houses of Representatives in New Hampshire and Minnesota.
    • "With hundreds of races still too close to call, Democrats have won at least 370 new state legislative seats nationwide."

    Keeper quote ... CNN's Don Lemon last night: "This has been a great wave to surf because it's so slow."
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Of the ten House races currently too close to call, D's are leading in 7.
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    Hard to believe it's still ongoing, over a week later. Anyhow quite an interesting Beeb (audio) profile of the human phenonomum (now socialist congresswoman) Ocasio-Cortes (if on the short side) which had me comparing her to a sort of more honest Kennedy figure approaching Corbyn . And given what's been done to Corbyn already I imagine a media campaign to discredit her must be already underway as we speak . I wouldn't be surprised if it's already happening in the New York Times and Washington Post . And if that doesn't work , you can imagine. She must have a lot of courage, I do not envy her https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m00013jx

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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    One more House seat to the D's in NJ for a net gain of 34 so far. Beginning to looks as if FL Senate will flip to R.
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    Default Re: US mid terms Today 6th November 2018

    R's picked up the Senate seat in Florida, and held on to the Guv seats in Florida and Jawga.


    Posting this because GT raised the issue of the Md Guv race specifically.



    Continuing my analysis of why Jealous did so poorly in the gubernatorial election, today's post examines factors that contributed to Ben Jealous's defeat.
    Larry Hogan

    This is really the key factor. Gov. Larry Hogan was a good candidate. Throughout his tenure, he’s had an eye for the small politically popular act. He didn’t make any major changes, which also meant that few were offended. His cancer made him all the more sympathetic. Democrats thought that reaction to Trump would bring him down but Hogan proved a nice contrast. On top of that, the Governor raised a ton of money for his reelection campaign.
    Connection to Maryland

    Notwithstanding the lie on his campaign website that he “lived in Maryland throughout his career,” Ben Jealous’s ties as an adult to Maryland are quite weak. He only began voting here in 2012 and the 2018 gubernatorial primary was his first. Even when Jealous headed the NAACP he lived in Washington, D.C. Especially outside of the D.C. suburbs, Jealous came across as a member of the Washington establishment rather than a Marylander. Marylander has a history of rejecting candidates viewed as having parachuted into the state.
    Ironically, the repeated reference to Jealous as the “nationally known” leader of the NAACP only reinforced this impression. Moreover, Jealous is well-known in elite Washington circles but not so much among ordinary African-American Marylanders who ended up voting for Hogan at far higher rates than usual for Republican candidates. During the primary, Jealous didn’t tout a single endorsement from any local or state officials of any race. His campaign repeatedly brought in national politicians.
    Knowledge and Previous Impact in Maryland

    Jealous’s knowledge about Maryland was painfully thin at times. He made ending mass incarceration a central plank of his campaign. Except the General Assembly working with Gov. Hogan had already taken action on this issue. As David Moon mentioned in a recent blog post, Maryland now has the fastest rate of decline in its prison population.
    Similarly, Jealous tried to bring the federal fight over judicial nominees to Maryland and make voters fear Hogan’s appointees. Hogan’s judicial appointments have been neither radical nor politicized, as evidenced by the lack of Democratic opposition. It didn’t help that Jealous mistakenly referred to the Court of Appeals as the “Supreme Court.”
    Jealous massively over claimed about his political impact in Maryland. He touted frequently his leadership in fights to eliminate the death penalty and pass marriage equality. I spoke with Sen. Bobby Zirkin, one of the pivotal senators on the death penalty question, and he still has never met Jealous. Similarly, none of the General Assembly leaders on marriage equality met or strategized with him during the lengthy battle on this issue.
    The campaign repeatedly relied almost exclusively on an increasingly shopworn citation from the Baltimore Sun as “Marylander of the Year” to buttress his claims. But neither Jealous nor his campaign backed up these claims convincingly or had Marylanders ready to attest to them.
    Finally, even his record as leader of the Baltimore-based NAACP was mixed. Jealous liked to talk about all the money he brought in to the NAACP and his role in building up the organization. But he left it facing a financial crisis. Revenue was down by roughly one quarter in his last year and the organization is now about the same size as when arrived but poorer, as the NAACP’s assets declined substantially during his tenure.
    Poor Fundraising

    The love of money may be the root of all evil but campaigns need it to get their message out. In Montgomery County, the campaign almost did not exist until the very end when we were treated belatedly to a bushel of low-quality television ads. I never saw any online ads for Jealous. Nor did I receive any mail from the campaign.
    I don’t know why Jealous didn’t have the money. During the primary, Jealous used his vaunted ability as a fundraiser to convince many endorsers to support his campaign. He delivered in the primary, but the general was a bust notwithstanding his claims that he could raise in excess of $10 million.
    Despite being labelled inspirational and transformative by supporters, the Jealous campaign’s fundraising contrasted dramatically with even average Democratic candidates around the country who outraised their Republican opponents. Did he just not engage enough in the necessary evil of call time?
    Part III continues this analysis of this year's Democratic gubernatorial defeat.


    David Lublin | November 19, 2018 at 9:51 am | Categories: 2018 Governor's Race | URL: https://wp.me/p4mKJE-36p
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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