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Thread: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

  1. #1
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    Default Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    This thread is a split off from the Brexit thread.
    In the Brexit thread I posted this link:

    A UI could bring a 15% drop in living standards in RoI. Time to dig a moat?

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...sEnabled=false

    The premise was ridiculed by some UIers.
    When I asked Statsman1, one of the ridiculers to identify the benefits to the RoI of a UI he responded with this post.

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...614#post472614

    I contend that there are no, zero, zip, tangible benefits to the RoI as a result of a UI, and even if there are some benefits, they are far outweighed by the negatives.

    Promoters of a UI sharpen your pencils.......and demonstrate you are not staunch supporters of a policy the benefits of which you are unable to articulate.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    This thread is a split off from the Brexit thread.
    In the Brexit thread I posted this link:

    A UI could bring a 15% drop in living standards in RoI. Time to dig a moat?

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...sEnabled=false

    The premise was ridiculed by some UIers.
    When I asked Statsman1, one of the ridiculers to identify the benefits to the RoI of a UI he responded with this post.

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...614#post472614

    I contend that there are no, zero, zip, tangible benefits to the RoI as a result of a UI, and even if there are some benefits, they are far outweighed by the negatives.

    Promoters of a UI sharpen your pencils.......and demonstrate you are not staunch supporters of a policy the benefits of which you are unable to articulate.
    The primary benefit, in my view, is the end of a long-running political and social sore on the island. This will result in the end of dissident violence, and should, in the medium to long term, mean a 'normalisation' of our party and electoral politics along more classical European lines, with more defined Left/Centre/Right parties emerging. Or existing ones reconfiguring along those lines.

    There may well be an economic hit in the short term, but there's more to a country than the economy.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    The primary benefit, in my view, is the end of a long-running political and social sore on the island. This will result in the end of dissident violence, and should, in the medium to long term, mean a 'normalisation' of our party and electoral politics along more classical European lines, with more defined Left/Centre/Right parties emerging. Or existing ones reconfiguring along those lines.

    There may well be an economic hit in the short term, but there's more to a country than the economy.
    There's also an immediate economic benefit to the border counties by the removal of impediments to trade. It's no coincident that Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Longford and Leitrim lag behind the rest of the 26 in terms of their economic output because of the border cutting them off from their natural hinterland.

    The social benefits are also monetary, in terms of reductions in cost for security and customs on both sides of the border. (don't believe predictions of the impending loyalocalypse (TM Sidewinder), as it simply wont come to pass to any great extent), given there is no longer a border to exploit.

    Given also, how no-one knows the true extent of the subvention, versus the true extent of NI's tax take, making predictions in this area is a risky business, but suffice to say, NI would no longer be contributing to the UK defense budget, nor the UK National Debt or pension funds, the Royal Family etc etc. So definite savings to be made on that front.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    For a start my experts disagree with the counts experts,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crim...land-1.2823081

    A team of academics from Canada, Switzerland and the US have now tackled the economics question, and have modelled how a 32-county Ireland might fare economically.

    Their conclusions? Surprisingly good.

    Reunification could deliver a boon to the enlarged island state worth over €35 billion in eight years.

    And the North would benefit enormously, with more modest gains for the South.
    But leaving economics aside the settlement of the question peaceably by a ballot would have a profound psychological, visceral and intellectual effect on the island. We'd have come a long, long way together and that bodes well for the fututre in terms of less energy ivested in rivalry and more in cooperation.

    Hard to see a downside imv.
    “philosophy lives from everything which happens to the philosopher and his times.”

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    The primary benefit, in my view, is the end of a long-running political and social sore on the island. This will result in the end of dissident violence, and should, in the medium to long term, mean a 'normalisation' of our party and electoral politics along more classical European lines, with more defined Left/Centre/Right parties emerging. Or existing ones reconfiguring along those lines.

    There may well be an economic hit in the short term, but there's more to a country than the economy.
    You need to stick to specific tangible benefits, with numbers, to counter the minus 15% living standard argument.Political sore I accept. Social sore I don't. Further, you appear to be assuming a UI would not create an alternative longrunning political and social sore on the other side. Explain?
    Acceptance of an economic hit is a change from what you said in the Brexit thread, where you claimed I was out of touch by citing it.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    There's also an immediate economic benefit to the border counties by the removal of impediments to trade. It's no coincident that Donegal, Cavan, Monaghan, Longford and Leitrim lag behind the rest of the 26 in terms of their economic output because of the border cutting them off from their natural hinterland.

    The social benefits are also monetary, in terms of reductions in cost for security and customs on both sides of the border. (don't believe predictions of the impending loyalocalypse (TM Sidewinder), as it simply wont come to pass to any great extent), given there is no longer a border to exploit.

    Given also, how no-one knows the true extent of the subvention, versus the true extent of NI's tax take, making predictions in this area is a risky business, but suffice to say, NI would no longer be contributing to the UK defense budget, nor the UK National Debt or pension funds, the Royal Family etc etc. So definite savings to be made on that front.
    What impediments to trade? Specify.
    How much does RoI spend on border security? Give a number.
    The sovereign grant is about 40M Stg. At most N.I pays 3% or 1.2M if anything at all. RoI taxpayers contribute zero to the sovereign fund. What guarantees are you offering that the 1.2M saved will not be squandered on N.I. and instead be used to benefit the taxpayers of RoI?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerd Muller View Post
    For a start my experts disagree with the counts experts,

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crim...land-1.2823081



    But leaving economics aside the settlement of the question peaceably by a ballot would have a profound psychological, visceral and intellectual effect on the island. We'd have come a long, long way together and that bodes well for the fututre in terms of less energy ivested in rivalry and more in cooperation.

    Hard to see a downside imv.
    Unfortunately for you, in this thread, you can't leave economics aside.
    The study you cite acknowledges that the benefits it cites would accrue primarily to N.I. so your claim of 35B over eight years is false. More like an 80/20 split of 7B to RoI over eight years, v. an initial drop of 15% in living standard = GDP approx. That's 45B per year, = 360B over 8. Now go make up that difference....
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    If I was to be a cynic I would suggest that post-Brexit and a refusal of the rump UK to subsidise the UI, nua ROI would expect the cost to be carried by the remains of the EU... reverting to the status of relative poverty requiring support that it enjoyed when the ROI originally joined the EEC and avoiding the unpleasantness of being a net contributor to the EU ...

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    The report also showed improvements for the Republic of Ireland, which would benefit from barrier-free access to the Northern Irish market. By modeling three separate unification scenarios, the researchers showed a long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic of Ireland would see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.

    The report presents the first comprehensive economic models simulating the political and economic integration of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The study is particularly timely given current debates over Irish economic growth and the U.K.’s continued participation in the European Union. Three unification scenarios were presented, with the most aggressive estimating a 35.6 billion Euro boost in an all-island GDP in the first eight years of unification.
    http://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification-report/

    So experts are pointing to a tangible benefit. The intangible benefits seem to be huge to me.
    “philosophy lives from everything which happens to the philosopher and his times.”

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerd Muller View Post
    http://prcg.com/modeling-irish-unification-report/

    So experts are pointing to a tangible benefit. The intangible benefits seem to be huge to me.
    And other experts are pointing to a much bigger tangible loss.
    A long term gain for RoI of 1% under the most optimistic scenario v. a 15% immediate and/or long term drop doesn't seem like much of a choice to me.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by maggot View Post
    If I was to be a cynic I would suggest that post-Brexit and a refusal of the rump UK to subsidise the UI, nua ROI would expect the cost to be carried by the remains of the EU... reverting to the status of relative poverty requiring support that it enjoyed when the ROI originally joined the EEC and avoiding the unpleasantness of being a net contributor to the EU ...
    Sounds like a plan.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Sounds like a plan.
    But I'm not a cynic

  13. #13
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Having spent decades on these types of debates, I could only roll my eyes and sigh at this childish bolloxology....again

    This is a favoured old tactic of raving partitionists who insist on seeing the Six as somewhere as foreign, alien and far away as Mongolia; and those very strange people whose real agenda is to somehow get all of Ireland back in the UK. Both groups amount to maybe 15% of the population (personal estimate based on 4 decades living in 4 different counties in three different provinces) but they make a hell of a lot of noise.

    Basically the Count will sit here quite happily from now till the sun goes out, endlessly whining and quibbling and demanding absolute satisfaction on questions that have no definitive 100% answer - by definition! It is of course completely and utterly ridiculous to demand "I want to know exactly what GDP and unemployment levels will be in 2035! I demand to know the precise exact details of how exactly (say) cancer services are going to be integrated across the island! I insist you tell me exactly how [insert some obscure legal issue in one obscure industry] is going to look like post-Unification! And if you can't answer those, I have dozens of others!"

    Followed, naturally, with Standard Disclaimers such as "I have no objection to/I would like to see a UI BUT [insert feeble excuse here]"

    It's a rather pathetic stalling/distraction/disruption tactic, used by small and petty minds. Its only purpose is to bog down any reasonable and sensible debate, spread FUD, and attempt to scare the weak-minded with pedantic mean-spirited objectionism.

    Seen it a thousand times before. Don't take it seriously. At the end of the day you could offer the Count ten million eurons and his own tropical island, and he'd still find ways to complain, whinge and bogeymonster about the utter disaster that would be a United Ireland.

    Why a tiny minority of people are compelled to behave this way remains a mystery. I suspect perhaps they simply didn't get enough hugs as childer.

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post

    This is a favoured old tactic of raving partitionists who insist on seeing the Six as somewhere as foreign, alien and far away as Mongolia;
    Gerry Adams did you no favours by semi-re-locating to the ROI. The thought of maybe another hundred thousand like him makes sure that there will be no UI in the near future. Like it or not - Nordies ARE different. Always have been going back into the mists of time - Black Pig Dyke etc. Even Michael Collins recognised the difference :

    "Who would visit Belfast or Lisburn or Lurgan to see the Irish People at home?” he asked. “That is the unhappy fate of the North East. It is neither Irish nor English."2

    2 Michael Collins, Path to Freedom, p.80.
    Carson The Man Who Divided Ireland by Geoffrey Lewis, page 15

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Specific Tangible Benefits to RoI of a UI

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    Having spent decades on these types of debates, I could only roll my eyes and sigh at this childish bolloxology....again

    This is a favoured old tactic of raving partitionists who insist on seeing the Six as somewhere as foreign, alien and far away as Mongolia; and those very strange people whose real agenda is to somehow get all of Ireland back in the UK. Both groups amount to maybe 15% of the population (personal estimate based on 4 decades living in 4 different counties in three different provinces) but they make a hell of a lot of noise.

    Basically the Count will sit here quite happily from now till the sun goes out, endlessly whining and quibbling and demanding absolute satisfaction on questions that have no definitive 100% answer - by definition! It is of course completely and utterly ridiculous to demand "I want to know exactly what GDP and unemployment levels will be in 2035! I demand to know the precise exact details of how exactly (say) cancer services are going to be integrated across the island! I insist you tell me exactly how [insert some obscure legal issue in one obscure industry] is going to look like post-Unification! And if you can't answer those, I have dozens of others!"

    Followed, naturally, with Standard Disclaimers such as "I have no objection to/I would like to see a UI BUT [insert feeble excuse here]"

    It's a rather pathetic stalling/distraction/disruption tactic, used by small and petty minds. Its only purpose is to bog down any reasonable and sensible debate, spread FUD, and attempt to scare the weak-minded with pedantic mean-spirited objectionism.

    Seen it a thousand times before. Don't take it seriously. At the end of the day you could offer the Count ten million eurons and his own tropical island, and he'd still find ways to complain, whinge and bogeymonster about the utter disaster that would be a United Ireland.

    Why a tiny minority of people are compelled to behave this way remains a mystery. I suspect perhaps they simply didn't get enough hugs as childer.
    Them's great benefits alright, but unfortunately adjectives have little tangible value. Attacking me and the topic in an attempt to shut down discussion simply relegates you to the status of a book burner.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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