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Thread: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

  1. #106
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Ah. You're settling the bar that low!
    Yep. I'm expecting them to hit a couple of crossbars and build from there on.

  2. #107
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerd Muller View Post
    I’ll guarantee you that SOL/PBP will get more than 2 seats.

    Mick Barry Cork North-Central
    Richard Boyd Barrett Dún Laoghaire
    Ruth Coppinger Dublin West
    Gino Kenny Dublin Mid-West
    Paul Murphy Dublin South-West
    Bríd Smith Dublin South-Central
    Solidarity–PBP also has 28 local councillors.



    Who is going to lose their seat from that list ?
    Boyd-Barret is very safe.

    Paul Murphy is probably safe, he finished 2nd on first preferences in his 5 seat constituency so he has plenty of wiggle room and he'll run a strong campaign.

    Mick Barry is also probably safe, he came 2nd on first preferences in his 4 seat constituency and it would take a herculean effort for one of FF,SF or FG to take 2 seats which is just about the only way that Barry could lose his seat.

    Ruth Coppinger is likely to scrape in but she's vulnerable to a SF gain there at her expense if Labour's Burton runs again and takes a seat.

    Brid Smith has a serious fight on her hands, she only won the last seat there by 35 votes from Catherine Ardagh FF.

    Gino Kelly is a bit of a nobody but he took the last seat comfortably enough by 2,591 votes from an SD candidate. Although Gino is probably safe his GE 2016 vote wasn't a personal vote and it could evaporate easily enough this time

  3. #108
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Boyd-Barret is very safe.

    Paul Murphy is probably safe, he finished 2nd on first preferences in his 5 seat constituency so he has plenty of wiggle room and he'll run a strong campaign.

    Mick Barry is also probably safe, he came 2nd on first preferences in his 4 seat constituency and it would take a herculean effort for one of FF,SF or FG to take 2 seats which is just about the only way that Barry could lose his seat.

    Ruth Coppinger is likely to scrape in but she's vulnerable to a SF gain there at her expense if Labour's Burton runs again and takes a seat.

    Brid Smith has a serious fight on her hands, she only won the last seat there by 35 votes from Catherine Ardagh FF.

    Gino Kelly is a bit of a nobody but he took the last seat comfortably enough by 2,591 votes from an SD candidate. Although Gino is probably safe his GE 2016 vote wasn't a personal vote and it could evaporate easily enough this time
    Not so sure about Murphy or Coppinger, as their stock has fallen significantly. Clare Daly for example, only really got more popular after she split from the SP as it was then.

  4. #109
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Not so sure about Murphy or Coppinger, as their stock has fallen significantly. Clare Daly for example, only really got more popular after she split from the SP as it was then.
    But Clare Daly did get elected as a SP candidate in 2011 with 15.7% of the vote in Dublin North, then after receiving massive plaudits for her work in the Dail she still only received the exact same 15.7% as an Independents4Change candidate in Dublin Fingal in GE 2016.

    I'm no fan of the self-indulgent Trots but they are fanatically tenacious election campaigners. Coppinger is sitting in Joe Higgins's seat, even against a strong SF machine and having the loud and taciturn Coppinger as a replacement for the affable Joe Higgins the SP still got the vote and secured the seat for Coppinger. ( I do think the SF candidate Paul Donnelly will take a seat there this time because he just missed out last time so there'll be enough of a sympathy vote for him to help get him over the line this time.

    Voters really are that ridiculous that they reward persistence out of some misplaced sense of justice.

    National opinion polls mean very little for micro parties, especially when you're dealing with strong local machines
    Last edited by Shaadi; 27-09-2018 at 01:13 PM.

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