Page 3 of 8 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast
Results 31 to 45 of 109

Thread: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

  1. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2011
    Location
    DublinBayS
    Posts
    112

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Pretty much. The demise of Labour benefits SF, the SD's and to a lesser extent the alphabettis. The demise of the alphabettis also benefits SF and the SDs. Another very real problem for FF is that they are everyone else's bete noire. Because of Brexit, FG will - perhaps for the first time - pick up SF transfers, that would otherwise have gone to FF (largely because of their playing politics with this issue).

    The old truisms are no longer true - FF are not now the natural party of government, SF are no longer transfer toxic, Labour no longer represent the working class, FG are no longer West Brit shoneens, and the disparate nature of the odds and sods means that there's a growing desire for change from the same ol' same ol'.
    So you reckon the next General Election should be a very exciting event? Can't wait!

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    141

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Pretty much. The demise of Labour benefits SF, the SD's and to a lesser extent the alphabettis. The demise of the alphabettis also benefits SF and the SDs. Another very real problem for FF is that they are everyone else's bete noire. Because of Brexit, FG will - perhaps for the first time - pick up SF transfers, that would otherwise have gone to FF (largely because of their playing politics with this issue).

    The old truisms are no longer true - FF are not now the natural party of government, SF are no longer transfer toxic, Labour no longer represent the working class, FG are no longer West Brit shoneens, and the disparate nature of the odds and sods means that there's a growing desire for change from the same ol' same ol'.

    Not so sure about the highlighted bit holls. A lot of older folk still find it very difficult to stomach SF. In time - say another 10 years or so - it might be different.

    But not yet.

  3. #33
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Location
    The fence, the capital, the other bits and occasionally the foreign bits
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Publicrealm View Post
    Not so sure about the highlighted bit holls. A lot of older folk still find it very difficult to stomach SF. In time - say another 10 years or so - it might be different.

    But not yet.
    Well, Old folk, yes, but new folk not at all. Middle aged folk somewhere in the middle depending on how thran they are. You have to remember that the first time voters in the next election will have been born after the troubles, and most second and third time voters will have little memory of the troubles. Throw in to that mix the prominence of lilywhites, and the leaving of the stage of the troubles generation (yer Gerrys and yer Martins and the like), and you can see where things are going.

    I'm actually looking at the transfer patterns right now, and they picked up decent transfer %ages from 9 (greens) to 28 (Sol-PBP) from the parties that were most likely out of the race before them. Less so from FF and FG who- aside from the political differences - were often trying to get a second, or even a third elected.

    For example, both FG and FF got most of their transfers from themselves (54% Fg to FG, and 27% FF to FF respectively.)

  4. #34
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    141

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Well, Old folk, yes, but new folk not at all. Middle aged folk somewhere in the middle depending on how thran they are. You have to remember that the first time voters in the next election will have been born after the troubles, and most second and third time voters will have little memory of the troubles. Throw in to that mix the prominence of lilywhites, and the leaving of the stage of the troubles generation (yer Gerrys and yer Martins and the like), and you can see where things are going.

    I'm actually looking at the transfer patterns right now, and they picked up decent transfer %ages from 9 (greens) to 28 (Sol-PBP) from the parties that were most likely out of the race before them. Less so from FF and FG who- aside from the political differences - were often trying to get a second, or even a third elected.

    For example, both FG and FF got most of their transfers from themselves (54% Fg to FG, and 27% FF to FF respectively.)
    I hereby resolve to live longer just to thwart t'buggers.

  5. #35
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Location
    The fence, the capital, the other bits and occasionally the foreign bits
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Publicrealm View Post
    I hereby resolve to live longer just to thwart t'buggers.
    Which buggers?

    Buggery seems to be a prerequisite for national politics these days.

  6. #36
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    174

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Not much change then?
    “philosophy lives from everything which happens to the philosopher and his times.”

  7. #37
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Location
    The fence, the capital, the other bits and occasionally the foreign bits
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Gerd Muller View Post
    Not much change then?
    Not a massive amount. The big changes will come from Labour and the smaller parties getting squeezed, which in turn affects the order of eliminations and the final results - in PR-STV this favours the bigger parties.

  8. #38
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    141

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Which buggers?

    Buggery seems to be a prerequisite for national politics these days.
    I heard on the grapevine that a certain candidate has arranged for Michael D's sexual orientation to be questioned during the campaign.

    Despicable if true (and counterproductive,I would hope)

  9. #39
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Location
    The fence, the capital, the other bits and occasionally the foreign bits
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Publicrealm View Post
    I heard on the grapevine that a certain candidate has arranged for Michael D's sexual orientation to be questioned during the campaign.

    Despicable if true (and counterproductive,I would hope)
    Interesting. Would it be a candidate who feels hard done by?

  10. #40
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    141

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Interesting. Would it be a candidate who feels hard done by?
    It would be improper to imply such a base intent to any particular candidate and I couldn't possibly comment.

  11. #41
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,971

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Publicrealm View Post
    I heard on the grapevine that a certain candidate has arranged for Michael D's sexual orientation to be questioned during the campaign.

    Despicable if true (and counterproductive,I would hope)
    Nasty but this is probably going to be a dirty campaign. Though given the way that Norris was nobbled the last time, it might just be Karma.

    Regards...jmcc

  12. #42
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Posts
    1,986

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    That independents are as high as 17% in itself speaks of the old "he fixed the potholes for us" and of a general malaise/discontentment with established parties and political life in general. On the plus side it does make for an interesting political landscape.
    Quite, with a general economic boost under way Indos don't need to promise much in money terms (they haven't any, anyway), but are useful for a bit of local fixing. IMO, the general uninterest in what politicians are doing is the norm when things are OK economically, except for "things I need done" me fein....

  13. #43
    Join Date
    Aug 2018
    Location
    The fence, the capital, the other bits and occasionally the foreign bits
    Posts
    211

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Quite, with a general economic boost under way Indos don't need to promise much in money terms (they haven't any, anyway), but are useful for a bit of local fixing. IMO, the general uninterest in what politicians are doing is the norm when things are OK economically, except for "things I need done" me fein....
    I'd disagree with that in an Irish context. Indos did not perform particularly well during the boom years, when things were OK. They typically do well when things are not OK, or there is perceived inequality. In fairness, a lot of the indos are gene pool that have fallen out with their respective parties, and get elected on the basis that "he/she is our man".

  14. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,839

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    It will be interesting to see how John Hannigan does down in Waterford, given the cardiac care fiasco and his total back down on his lynch pin electoral issue.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  15. #45
    Join Date
    Oct 2014
    Posts
    261

    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    It will be interesting to see how John Hannigan does down in Waterford, given the cardiac care fiasco and his total back down on his lynch pin electoral issue.
    One of the problems with predicting seat totals from polls in our system is that while the Indo vote may be at a certain level, the Indo electability factor is often a local issue, like Waterford Cardiac Unit, for instance. I suspect he'll be hammered, even if Indos poll 20% of the national vote.
    “Me, poor man, my library
    Was dukedom large enough.”

Page 3 of 8 FirstFirst 12345 ... LastLast

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Share us
Follow Us