RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

[hollandia]

I was being a bit tongue in cheek with that remark [enjoy your Sunday]. I think overall it's pointing to a minority FG Government, only question is who will they get into bed with? Or will they go it alone again with some 'arrangement'? Even a FF-SF combination doesn't quite have the figures.

Not on the RedC Poll, no. Though looked at in the round (All recent polls considered, and bearing in mind Stats "Caveat Emptor" thread) It's looking like FG-SF, FG-Indos, FG Minority and FF-SF in that order (in terms of numbers).

ETA - this isn't a chore for me. I quite like parsing the numbers.*

*Disclaimer - I am not now, nor have I ever been a serial killing wingnut*...

[C. Flower]

Someone flatlining at the bottom of those charts.

[hollandia]

Someone flatlining at the bottom of those charts.

Yep. Any leaning toward labour would be negligible at that level.

[hollandia]

Independent/Independent Alliance at a joint 17%

Has anyone done any analysis of this vote ? It is just FF / Ind - localism, or what ?

Typically IA are only at around 4-5%. Leaving indos at 12. It's hard to analyse because the indos are just so disparate - From FG Gene Pool (Lowry), Various FF gene Pool (Healy Rae etc), SF Gene Pool (Pringle, Carol Nolan), various alphabettis (Daly), odds and sods (Mick Wallace). That independents are as high as 17% in itself speaks of the old "he fixed the potholes for us" and of a general malaise/discontentment with established parties and political life in general. On the plus side it does make for an interesting political landscape.

[statsman1]

I know it's early days. FG have never lead two consecutive Governments before now, do you really think a FG-SF coalition is a more likely outcome than a FG-FF coalition [on these figures]? Politically would it not make more sense for the two big parties to go into coalition.


Should FF only be on around 22% can't see Micheál lasting as leader - the Soldiers may have to do a complete re-assessment of where their future lies [if they have one].

FG-FF would be political suicide for the smaller partner.

[Norman Bates]

FG-FF would be political suicide for the smaller partner.

Well …

[hollandia]

Norm on the RedC poll:

FF 40
FG 63
SF 30
Lab 1
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 2
SD 3
Ind 19

[Norman Bates]

Norm on the RedC poll:

FF 40
FG 63
SF 30
Lab 1
Grn 0
Sol-PBP 2
SD 3
Ind 19

Thanks, Holl. Not much room to manoeuvre there. FG-SF 93. I don't quite see that working out though. Still, anything is possible at this stage, I suppose. The Soldiers, I think, on that result will say bye-bye to MM, and bend over backwards to get back into Government under a new leader.

[hollandia]

Thanks, Holl. Not much room to manoeuvre there. FG-SF 93. I don't quite see that working out though. Still, anything is possible at this stage, I suppose. The Soldiers, I think, on that result will say bye-bye to MM, and bend over backwards to get back into Government under a new leader.

Thirty and forty for SF and FF are on the optimistic side I think. It really depends on how fractured the rest of the field is and where the transfers go. Not looking good for Lab and Green. I intend to set up a detailed constituency by constituency spreadsheet this week when I'm off work. That way there might be a better handle on the indos.

[statsman1]

Thirty and forty for SF and FF are on the optimistic side I think. It really depends on how fractured the rest of the field is and where the transfers go. Not looking good for Lab and Green. I intend to set up a detailed constituency by constituency spreadsheet this week when I'm off work. That way there might be a better handle on the indos.

Who's your new SD TD? I can't really see it, unfortunately.

[hollandia]

Who's your new SD TD? I can't really see it, unfortunately.

Jennifer Whitmore in Wicklow. 2FG, 1 FF, 1SF and 1 SD. SD's slightly ahead of FF on .83 of a quota as opposed to .8, and labour transfers on .21 of a quota to get the SD over the line. Whilst they haven't grown much, Labour has collapsed and that (and some disgruntled former FFers) is where their vote will come from. (I accept that this doesn't account for Stephen Donnelly's personal vote, as numbers have no sentiment, but I'm really hoping I'm right).

Caveat - all things being equal and national polling weighted per constituency.

[statsman1]

Jennifer Whitmore in Wicklow. 2FG, 1 FF, 1SF and 1 SD. SD's slightly ahead of FF on .83 of a quota as opposed to .8, and labour transfers on .21 of a quota to get the SD over the line.

Caveat - all things being equal and national polling weighted per constituency.

I suppose she's their best hope, right enough, but I honestly don't see it.

If FF 40 and SF 30 are at the top end of what those parties might expect, where do you think the seats might go if they don't go there?

[hollandia]

I suppose she's their best hope, right enough, but I honestly don't see it.

If FF 40 and SF 30 are at the top end of what those parties might expect, where do you think the seats might go if they don't go there?

FG and SDs. SF, and to a lesser extent FF "hit the bar" in a number of constituencies last time out, and it will only take a relatively small increase to get 4-6 more elected for SF. Labour will transfer about 40-50% to Sf also, the rest largely to SDs if they're still in the race. FF's problem is that they're generally fighting with FG for the bonus seats, so if the gap widens marginally say 1% swing to FG that will benefit FG to the tune of about 5 seats.

The difficulty with PR is that an increase in vote doesn't necessarily get you more seats, because transfers, and who is still in the running have a major effect on outcome for the later seats.

[statsman1]

FG and SDs. SF, and to a lesser extent FF "hit the bar" in a number of constituencies last time out, and it will only take a relatively small increase to get 4-6 more elected for SF. Labour will transfer about 40-50% to Sf also, the rest largely to SDs if they're still in the race. FF's problem is that they're generally fighting with FG for the bonus seats, so if the gap widens marginally say 1% swing to FG that will benefit FG to the tune of about 5 seats.

The difficulty with PR is that an increase in vote doesn't necessarily get you more seats, because transfers, and who is still in the running have a major effect on outcome for the later seats.

So, FG have the potential to get possibly their third highest seat total ever, if memory serves, while FF could end up with their second worst. Jaysus.

[hollandia]

So, FG have the potential to get possibly their third highest seat total ever, if memory serves, while FF could end up with their second worst. Jaysus.

Pretty much. The demise of Labour benefits SF, the SD's and to a lesser extent the alphabettis. The demise of the alphabettis also benefits SF and the SDs. Another very real problem for FF is that they are everyone else's bete noire. Because of Brexit, FG will - perhaps for the first time - pick up SF transfers, that would otherwise have gone to FF (largely because of their playing politics with this issue).

The old truisms are no longer true - FF are not now the natural party of government, SF are no longer transfer toxic, Labour no longer represent the working class, FG are no longer West Brit shoneens, and the disparate nature of the odds and sods means that there's a growing desire for change from the same ol' same ol'.