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Thread: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

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    Default RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    A bit up, a bit down. The only figure that is noticeable, imo, is that FG are way ahead of their GE result:

    26 February 2016 General election result FG 25.5, FF 24.3, SF 13.8, Lab 6.6, S-PBP 3.9, SD 3.0, GR 2.7, RI 2.2, IA 4.2, Other 13.7

    All the other parties are in and around the same and within the margin of error, so I'm not sure you can really say an awful lot about this poll compared with the last GE, can you?

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    I would agree

    The only signifance is that neither FG or FF can go it alone and the Bank Guarantee coalition has a firm majority
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Independent/Independent Alliance at a joint 17%

    Has anyone done any analysis of this vote ? It is just FF / Ind - localism, or what ?
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Interesting poll. It's fairly evident that FG will lead the next govt under its current leader. Three losses in a row has to mean an existential crisis for FF. Martin is toast and the party could just split.

    Also, it seems possible that the Mary Lou bounce could be entering dead cat territory. If so an FG-SF coalition probably becomes even more likely.

    And if SF support has stalled that's double good news for Michael D.
    Last edited by statsman1; 16-09-2018 at 10:02 AM.
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Interesting poll. It's fairly evident that FG will lead the next govt under its current leader. Three losses in a row has to mean an existential crisis for FF. Martin is toast and the party could just split.

    Also, it seems possible that the Mary Lou bounce could be entering dead cat territory. If so an FG-SF coalition probably becomes even more likely.

    Ant if SF support has stalled that's double good news for Michael D.
    Yes, however it's also the first poll after the "off sseason" and these tend to favour the incumbents, being those most likely to be in the news/limelight whilst the oireachtas has it's well earned(?) three month summer holiday.

    Polls, a few months into the new Dail Session will tell us a lot more, as will polls in the next few weeks as the Presidential election hots up. I don't see anyone coming close to Higgins (but you never know what will "emerge" during the campaigns), and I think the lack of an actual FF and FG candidate will hurt them - particularly if their proxies fail to perform - or start to have some "difficulties" around their political ties. (See S.Gallagher and FF, 2011, for further details).

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Yes, however it's also the first poll after the "off sseason" and these tend to favour the incumbents, being those most likely to be in the news/limelight whilst the oireachtas has it's well earned(?) three month summer holiday.

    Polls, a few months into the new Dail Session will tell us a lot more, as will polls in the next few weeks as the Presidential election hots up. I don't see anyone coming close to Higgins (but you never know what will "emerge" during the campaigns), and I think the lack of an actual FF and FG candidate will hurt them - particularly if their proxies fail to perform - or start to have some "difficulties" around their political ties. (See S.Gallagher and FF, 2011, for further details).
    That it is. However it really isn't that far off trend, is it? And the off search as been busy with Brexit, policing, health and housing without affecting the incumbents at all, despite RTE's best efforts. The reality is that most voters expect no better from health and are not impacted by homelessness, as the alphabet soup are about to discover. Everyone was impacted by water charges but very few voters will ever become homeless. Meanwhile employment, consumer spending and the tax take is up and FG are seen to be playing a blinder on Brexit. A lot would need to go wrong to move the needle for those opposition.
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    That it is. However it really isn't that far off trend, is it? And the off search as been busy with Brexit, policing, health and housing without affecting the incumbents at all, despite RTE's best efforts. The reality is that most voters expect no better from health and are not impacted by homelessness, as the alphabet soup are about to discover. Everyone was impacted by water charges but very few voters will ever become homeless. Meanwhile employment, consumer spending and the tax take is up and FG are seen to be playing a blinder on Brexit. A lot would need to go wrong to move the needle for those opposition.
    This needs to be said, even if its not a terribly great reflection on us all. The coming election will be fought on "my economy' as most are. The electorate are broadly in a state of "its not too bad at the mo, why screw it up?". It worked for Bertie for 15 years, it'll work for Varadkar.

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    That it is. However it really isn't that far off trend, is it? And the off search as been busy with Brexit, policing, health and housing without affecting the incumbents at all, despite RTE's best efforts. The reality is that most voters expect no better from health and are not impacted by homelessness, as the alphabet soup are about to discover. Everyone was impacted by water charges but very few voters will ever become homeless. Meanwhile employment, consumer spending and the tax take is up and FG are seen to be playing a blinder on Brexit. A lot would need to go wrong to move the needle for those opposition.
    It's not far off trend (If one considers RedC alone - it's bang on trend) however there are discrepancies between RedC results and IPSOS and B&A, which are more closely aligned to each other than to RedC.

    I'd say FG on 30-31%, FF on 21-14%, and SF on 15-18% is more realistic.

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Analysis of polls so far (not suggesting a bias in the polling companies - more a difference in methodology)

    1: All polling companies. We can see significant variances in a short space of time due to the differences in methodology.



    2: RedC Only. RedC tend to favour the "established parties" to the detriment of SF by three or four percent in comparison with their rivals.



    3: Behaviour and Attitude. B&A tend to favour FG and SF to the detriment of FF in comparison with their rival companies.



    4: IPSOS. Tends to favour FF and SF to the detriment of FG.



    5: Millward Brown: Tends to follow IPSOS trends.



    It would be an interesting study to see what the differences in methodology are, and why they produce such varied result.
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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by statsman1 View Post
    Interesting poll. It's fairly evident that FG will lead the next govt under its current leader. Three losses in a row has to mean an existential crisis for FF. Martin is toast and the party could just split.

    Also, it seems possible that the Mary Lou bounce could be entering dead cat territory. If so an FG-SF coalition probably becomes even more likely.

    And if SF support has stalled that's double good news for Michael D.
    I know it's early days. FG have never lead two consecutive Governments before now, do you really think a FG-SF coalition is a more likely outcome than a FG-FF coalition [on these figures]? Politically would it not make more sense for the two big parties to go into coalition.


    Should FF only be on around 22% can't see Micheál lasting as leader - the Soldiers may have to do a complete re-assessment of where their future lies [if they have one].

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Analysis of polls so far (not suggesting a bias in the polling companies - more a difference in methodology)

    1: All polling companies. We can see significant variances in a short space of time due to the differences in methodology.



    2: RedC Only. RedC tend to favour the "established parties" to the detriment of SF by three or four percent in comparison with their rivals.



    3: Behaviour and Attitude. B&A tend to favour FG and SF to the detriment of FF in comparison with their rival companies.



    4: IPSOS. Tends to favour FF and SF to the detriment of FG.



    5: Millward Brown: Tends to follow IPSOS trends.



    It would be an interesting study to see what the differences in methodology are, and why they produce such varied result.
    Those charts are very interesting. Thanks for that, Holl. Now, would you be able to do that with projected seats? No harm in asking.
    Last edited by Norman Bates; 16-09-2018 at 11:59 AM.

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by Norman Bates View Post
    Those charts are very interesting. Thanks for that. Now, would you be able to do that one projected seats? No harm in asking.
    Yes. Though there's a bit of work in that one, Norm. Easy enough when parties are making close to a full or multiple quotas, but more difficult when you get down to the last seats. You need to look at who is fighting who for what, and where. I'll see if I can get this done this evening.

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    Default Re: RedC/SBP 15/09/18: FG 33%, FF 22%, SF 14%, Ind 13%

    Quote Originally Posted by hollandia View Post
    Yes. Though there's a bit of work in that one, Norm. Easy enough when parties are making close to a full or multiple quotas, but more difficult when you get down to the last seats. You need to look at who is fighting who for what, and where. I'll see if I can get this done this evening.
    I was being a bit tongue in cheek with that remark [enjoy your Sunday]. I think overall it's pointing to a minority FG Government, only question is who will they get into bed with? Or will they go it alone again with some 'arrangement'? Even a FF-SF combination doesn't quite have the figures.

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