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Thread: The Last War

  1. #31
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    Default Re: The Last War

    They're talking about condoms on TV3, been on the Irish media all day.

    The Irish Fourth Estate is Dead,
    It's with O'Leary in the Grave.
    In case this all goes pear-shaped, I'll bid you adieu

  2. #32
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    Default Re: The Last War

    If you want to know what's going on in the world, the mainstream is leaving you twisting in the wind.

    10th April 2018 – The guard of Ro Island (a small Greek island about 8Km from the Turkish coast) has fired warning shots at a Turkish helicopter that supposedly approached during night. According to sources speaking to Sputnik, these actions were taken under new engagement rules after two Greek officers were apprehended by Turkey in an incident on the northern border between the two countries.
    The old antagonism between the Greeks and the Turks is a possible flash point. The Turks recently announced they're turning to Russia for SAM defense. The Israelis and Greeks just lost their arms contracts too.
    Last edited by musashi; 11-04-2018 at 11:05 PM.
    In case this all goes pear-shaped, I'll bid you adieu

  3. #33
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    Matt Cooper gave the story about 15 seconds of light.
    There you have it folks.

    In case you havn't twigged it yet, we are in a state of media 'black out'.

    But unlike the media blackouts of the past, the internet has changed the rules lately. I remember a time when such a clear and present crisis would warrant wall to wall coverage, like the US elections, or the World Cup. But here in the West, not a peep.

    Silence was what brought us to this bitter end.
    Last edited by musashi; 11-04-2018 at 11:27 PM.
    In case this all goes pear-shaped, I'll bid you adieu

  4. #34
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    11 Russian warships have departed the Syrian port of Tartus, They will be patrolling the Syrian coast and will intercept any US missiles. They have also warned that they will attack the sources of these missiles.
    In case this all goes pear-shaped, I'll bid you adieu

  5. #35
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    The Moon of Alabama gives a unique take on the current crisis

    There is reason that U.S. relations with Russia are now worse than they have been for some time and Russia is not responsible for these. The GW Bush administration killed the Anti-Ballistic-Missile treaty which guaranteed Mutually Assured Destruction and thus strategic stability. The Obama administration launched a trillion dollar program to ramp up U.S. nuclear capabilities and ballistic missile defense with the aim of achieving superiority in a nuclear conflict.

    It is cynical to say that "Russia needs us to help with their economy". The U.S. under Trump is waging economic war on Russia by implementing more and more economic sanctions. The last round on Friday targeted Russian industrialists, many of whom are not even aligned with Putin. Aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska, disliked in the Kremlin, lost 15% of his fortune. The Rubel plummeted against the dollar for two days in a row. U.S. Treasury stooges are now traveling in Europe to press European banks to shut down all services for Russian companies.
    In case this all goes pear-shaped, I'll bid you adieu

  6. #36
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    Hi Musashi, absolutely great to have you back.

    While I'm not filling the attic with beans yet I wouldn't dismiss the gist of the OP.

    "Events" drive various actors into taking positions and actions which would have seemed to be beyond the Pale before a chain of events set off a chain-reaction.

    • To an extent there is no Russia in these matters, there's a quiet and deep Russia-China axis united by their common desire to not let the US threaten either State's existence. China would probably be up for supporting Russia financially during any conflict, just to weaken the US threat to themselves.

    • Also you have to throw the strategic alliances of the various allies on either side into the mix. Iran-Syria-Russia -China etc, BRICS etc. Israel-USA-Saudi-UK-Gulf States etc. NATO-EU Powers.

    • Reckless Individuals and Ideologues on all sides. Trump and his Brain-Fart shooting from the hip combined with war-monger John Bolton being brought into the Trump Govt mean we could very easily see the US getting into highly provocative military actions including Invasions or Incursions.


    • US policy for many years has been steered towards weakening Russia so that the US can advance into Central Asia and exploit its resources. Note the western attacks on Russia's southern port access and any potential access to southern ports with the use of proxies in Georgia, Ukraine, Syria and Libya.

    While the all-powerful US has been moving its chess pieces, Russia and China and Iran have been thinking about how to defend themselves.

    Trump and Bolton are crazy enough to start a war. The US is powerful enough militarily to win an all out war, but winning an all out Nuclear War would be a moot point.

    An all out Conventional War between the US and many actors such as Russia and Iran would exhaust the US financially,so much so that China would quickly move to replace the USA as the global powerhouse Superpower. Shades of the USA watching the British Empire crumbling and pouncing on the opportunities that became available. Indeed Russia's boasting of outgunning the USA may be a poker players move played to make the US break itself financially in an Arms-race. Revenge for Reagan's pushing of the old Soviet Union down that path.

    Questions... Does the powerful Israel lobby in the USA really want a nuked neighbour on their borders. Obviously no.

    Can anyone control Saudi-Arabia's use of force and proxies in that region?
    Last edited by Shaadi; 12-04-2018 at 01:17 PM.

  7. #37
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    In 1986 nuclear war failed to happen by a whisker, as one Russian officer refused to launch a nuclear counter attack when ordered to against apparent incoming US missiles. He was sacked and we lived on pretty much in complete ignorance it had ever happened. Reagan was convinced for a while that a first strike nuclear war against Russia was winnable - or acted convinced. These pressures on Russia led to bankruptcy and collapse of the Soviet Union. However it remains as dismantled but Russia not militarily defeated. There are many posts/ threads here about the nuclear build up of a first strike capacity (behind a nuclear 'shield/defence) in the Obama years and the end of Mutually Assured Destruction. Also about the US push for increasingly direct control of the Middle East and Eastern Europe to the borders with Russia. For all of this push, regional powers constantly try to take on form and substance, and the remaining non-US-aligned states have dug their heels in and have nowhere to retreat. The US + proxies and allies, no matter what the extent of messing, were only able to wreck Syria not to take it over.

    What 1986 should tell us is that we are only aware of a small fraction of what is going on, and that nuclear war when it breaks out is as likely to be as the result of an accident (under tense and trigger happy conditions) as deliberate.

    Thank you for your postings, Musashi. I'm sure that the US / Trump would very much like to take Russia's only Mediterranean port - having failed to take Crimea. Trump's form in the past has been to drop something loud and flashy and claim that justice has prevailed. This time the momentum is very much greater. But the British and French have been sending troops in to Syria, not pulling them out. It would appear that in so far as there has been a plan, it has not been to annihilate Syria (moreso than already done).

    Theresa May seems to be attempting to take Britain to war without calling Parliament: even Tories are objecting. A convenient 'nerve gas attack' on British soil (still no ID from Porton Down?) appears to be window dressing from a planned attack. Of course Merkel, who stopped the escalation in Ukraine, is against. Germany has no illusions about it's prospects in the event of nuclear war. The French State is as usual acting as a pack of hyenas hoping to catch the droppings from the US jaws.

    People remember Iraq and that mass protests had no effect. It is also less clear to people exactly what the threat is - and what is the alternative to the threat.

    The thin and shabby nature of our so called democracies becomes pretty clear when there is a war drive.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  8. #38
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    Turkish paper Yeni Safak is reporting that a US, French, UK coalition plans multiple attacks on targets in Syria, including the Homs region (still contested) and the port of Tartus where there are Russian forces.

    https://www.yenisafak.com/
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    In 1986 nuclear war failed to happen by a whisker, as one Russian officer refused to launch a nuclear counter attack when ordered to against apparent incoming US missiles. He was sacked and we lived on pretty much in complete ignorance it had ever happened. Reagan was convinced for a while that a first strike nuclear war against Russia was winnable - or acted convinced. These pressures on Russia led to bankruptcy and collapse of the Soviet Union. However it remains as dismantled but Russia not militarily defeated. There are many posts/ threads here about the nuclear build up of a first strike capacity (behind a nuclear 'shield/defence) in the Obama years and the end of Mutually Assured Destruction. Also about the US push for increasingly direct control of the Middle East and Eastern Europe to the borders with Russia. For all of this push, regional powers constantly try to take on form and substance, and the remaining non-US-aligned states have dug their heels in and have nowhere to retreat. The US + proxies and allies, no matter what the extent of messing, were only able to wreck Syria not to take it over.
    you suggesting that the US is the reason the butcher of Damascus has waged a war against his own people for 7 years now?

  10. #40
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    "The largest US air and naval strike force since the 2003 Iraq warwas heading towards Syria last night as [U.K. Prime Minister] Theresa May won the backing of the cabinet to join in military action," per The Times of London (subscription):

    • "Offensive cyberweapons will be used by Britain and its allies as part of any strike operation to deceive Russian and Syrian air-defense radars."
    • "The US is amassing ten warships and two submarines in the Mediterranean and Gulf region."
    • Why it matters: "The mobilization will give Mr. Trump the option for a significant military campaign against Assad."





    MBS fresh off his very extensive US tour says Saudi is gung-ho if called upon to participate.


    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #41
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    So much going on in other Trump news today, Syria barely made the news.

    INTERESTING TAKE ... -- "Russia says alleged chemical attack in Syria staged by UK," by the AP's Vladimir Isachenkov: "The Russian Defense Ministry on Friday accused Britain of staging a fake chemical attack in the Syrian town of Douma last weekend, a bold charge that comes amid Moscow's stern warnings to the West against striking Syria.
    "A day before a team from the international chemical weapons watchdog was to arrive in Douma, just east of Damascus, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, said that images of victims of the purported attack were fakes staged with 'Britain's direct involvement,' without providing evidence." http://bit.ly/2H0kSBp
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    "The largest US air and naval strike force since the 2003 Iraq warwas heading towards Syria last night as [U.K. Prime Minister] Theresa May won the backing of the cabinet to join in military action," per The Times of London (subscription):

    • "Offensive cyberweapons will be used by Britain and its allies as part of any strike operation to deceive Russian and Syrian air-defense radars."
    • "The US is amassing ten warships and two submarines in the Mediterranean and Gulf region."
    • Why it matters: "The mobilization will give Mr. Trump the option for a significant military campaign against Assad."





    MBS fresh off his very extensive US tour says Saudi is gung-ho if called upon to participate.


    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    So much going on in other Trump news today, Syria barely made the news.

    INTERESTING TAKE ... -- "Russia says alleged chemical attack in Syria staged by UK," by the AP's Vladimir Isachenkov: "The Russian Defense Ministry on Friday accused Britain of staging a fake chemical attack in the Syrian town of Douma last weekend, a bold charge that comes amid Moscow's stern warnings to the West against striking Syria.
    "A day before a team from the international chemical weapons watchdog was to arrive in Douma, just east of Damascus, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, said that images of victims of the purported attack were fakes staged with 'Britain's direct involvement,' without providing evidence." http://bit.ly/2H0kSBp
    Things are looking ugly, the Saudis, British and USA have been going ho to remove Assad even before the War in Syria had got off the ground. The British and Saudis were crestfallen when the US buddied up with Russia to whack ISIS in Syria.

    Who is most keen for a whacking of Syria? Maybe the US to kick the Russian Navy out of the Mediterranean, mainly Saudi and the UK out of vitriol and business links, Israel too but a post-Assad Syria would be a particularly unstable and unpredictable neighbour.

    Why would Assad use chemical weapons when he was well on top of things and when the use of them would give the outsiders who had been trying to oust him the perfect chance to get back into the removing Assad game?

    It's kind of academic now whether it was Assad or Saudi-UK etc setting him up. The knives are out for him and that appears to be that, although if the West agrees to a doubt over what happened re a chemical attack then they could back down gracefully from a confrontation with Russia.

    One thing sticks in my mind re the potential attack on Syria and Russia's willingness to defend it. The Russians are seething at the UKs behaviour towards them. If there are UK ships involved in attacking Syria they had better be doing so from far away because the Russians won't hesitate to sink UK ships and there's no guarantee that the USA will lose any sleep if the Russians hit a UK ship rather than upping the ante by taking out US ones.

  13. #43
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    Trump on TV as I type announcing that a joint US/UK/French attack has begun. Deets to follow.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #44
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    Pentagon will have a briefing in about 50 minutes. Trump said that "coalition" is prepared to sustain tonight's action until Assad stops using chemical weapons. Reuters reporting bomb blasts in Damascus.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Things are looking ugly, the Saudis, British and USA have been going ho to remove Assad even before the War in Syria had got off the ground. The British and Saudis were crestfallen when the US buddied up with Russia to whack ISIS in Syria.

    Who is most keen for a whacking of Syria? Maybe the US to kick the Russian Navy out of the Mediterranean, mainly Saudi and the UK out of vitriol and business links, Israel too but a post-Assad Syria would be a particularly unstable and unpredictable neighbour.

    Why would Assad use chemical weapons when he was well on top of things and when the use of them would give the outsiders who had been trying to oust him the perfect chance to get back into the removing Assad game?

    It's kind of academic now whether it was Assad or Saudi-UK etc setting him up. The knives are out for him and that appears to be that, although if the West agrees to a doubt over what happened re a chemical attack then they could back down gracefully from a confrontation with Russia.

    One thing sticks in my mind re the potential attack on Syria and Russia's willingness to defend it. The Russians are seething at the UKs behaviour towards them. If there are UK ships involved in attacking Syria they had better be doing so from far away because the Russians won't hesitate to sink UK ships and there's no guarantee that the USA will lose any sleep if the Russians hit a UK ship rather than upping the ante by taking out US ones.
    Not that the US wouldn't welcome it, but I have no sense that the US will try to push Russia out of the Med. Russian navy is not very effective. They have only one rustbucket carrier.

    British ships are likely to be subs with tomahawks rather than surface craft.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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