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Thread: Italian General Elections 2018

  1. #1
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    Default Italian General Elections 2018

    I thinking counting is just about finished but official results are elusive . Some musing and links

    A hung parliament. Renzi's (outgoing gov) Democratic Party dropped worse than expected to 19% (the LEU split off made only 3.5%, and the hard left PaP just over 1% says public broadcaster RAI below).
    A relative win for the all over the place populist 5 star/M5S who did better than expected and won over 30% . However the right wing coalition now dominated by the populist extreme right Lega was the leading coalition at about 37% (Lega's 18% within that is a major advance for them sadly) . Comparing wikis the DP dropped 6% , the Lega gained 14% and M5S gained 7% , Berlsuconis's party dropping about 8% . LEU might be compared to the SEL about the same, The hard left PAP dropped by 1% from the previous coalition Civic Revolution with 2% . They might have been seen as a wasted vote , but it is dismal for them . M5S are said to have many former left voters despite it's dodgy agenda
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ung-parliament

    A cynic might say let the populists govern somehow . Even the DP were proposing deportations and the Lega more . There is not much hope in the situation right now unless 5star transform into a new 'center left' and ally with the DP . That might just be putting off Lega's moment though and 5star are said to have capitalised on anti-immigrant feeling also anyhow.
    All that remains of a clear left may be PaP , well below the 3% need to get into parliament . The dissident center left LEU will be the only leftish voice in parliament , though the part communist originated DP may turn back left, who knows ?
    http://www.rainews.it/dl/rainews/art...tml?refresh_ce

    The Guardian confuses with it's coverage I'm afraid . https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...-election-live
    Renzi's DP led coalition won the 2013 election with only about 30% of the vote (25 for the DP only), . The electoral system has been change back to more proportional in the last compromise between right and 'centre-left' blocs
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italia...election,_2013
    the 40% they are referring to came in Renzi's honeymoon in 2014 when the DP had a good year in regional and local elections https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italia...lections,_2014
    Last edited by GregTimo; 05-03-2018 at 10:55 AM.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    The author is a historian of old Left parties and outdoes my bleak take on the Italian elections unfortunately . M5S took the old left constituency but does not offer any hope , he says, concluding
    'As one old Marxist once put it: the old is dying, and something superficially different but not all that new has been born. May other things be born, and soon.'
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/03/i...vement-fascism

    The current debacle has been a long time in the making , recounted here
    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2018/02/i...ione-comunista

    The M5S promise of a €780 per month basic income is likely a big draw in their further advance (they were already the biggest single party in votes) . It's old style social liberalism to social democracy for Italians only http://money.cnn.com/2018/03/05/news...tar/index.html
    Last edited by GregTimo; 07-03-2018 at 09:21 AM.

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    As I've been saying for some years on here, Europe is shifting right. It has been so gradual that the Left has been like frogs in a pan of slowly warming water. This is a wakeup call to Brussels but it looks like Drunken Juncker and co are just not listening.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    As I've been saying for some years on here, Europe is shifting right. It has been so gradual that the Left has been like frogs in a pan of slowly warming water. This is a wakeup call to Brussels but it looks like Drunken Juncker and co are just not listening.

    Regards...jmcc
    Well I noticed and I'm sure others , though there is a problem with wishful thinking esp here . On the left publications like Jacobinmag.org (gone very heavy) and Die Linke's paper Neues Deutschland have woken up to an extent (with the latter they debate stuff within the German Left party, with it's very disparate views ). Some in the EU apparatus are waking up too, witness the moves on tax evasion and the latest to clamp down on another corporate racket ISDS . The demise of Renzi should remind Macron especially of his own possible fate

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    no knowing what will happen here

    Well, as of this moment, a coalition government between the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and right-wing League party is no longer not only likely, but appears to be a virtual certainty after the two political forces reached an agreement on a government program, one which was catalyzed by Sylvio Berlusconi's blessing late last week, greenlighting what may be the biggest shock in European politics since Brexit



    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-...ent-government
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Italy’s President refused to sanction an agreed coalition because of the proposed Finsnce Minister, a Eurosceptic



    Mattarella, whose task it is to name the premier and ministers, earlier rejected the candidacy of economist Paolo Savona, 81, who has repeatedly urged the Italian government to plan for a euro-exit, and who has criticized what he says is German dominance over Europe.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...skeptic-savona
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    the view from Germany


    They view themselves as the executors of the true will of the people. They put their nation first, without any regard for international treaties. But, no, it's not Donald Trump and his supporters in the United States we're talking about here. It's Italy's new government, which is currently being formed and whose political intent could best be summarized as such: Italy first, reflection second.

    It's more dangerous because, in contrast to much smaller Greece, the eurozone bailout fund would only be sufficient in a worst-case scenario to provide aid to Italy for one to two years. After that, it is almost inevitable that that euro would be thrown into an existential crisis that could drag banks and financial institutions around the world right down into the abyss with it. If Greece represented a bomb for the eurozone, then Italy is a nuclear bomb.
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/...mpression=true
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Gloomy analysis which sounds about right sadly ;
    'What we now face is a further wave of reaction, and likely fresh breakthroughs for the Lega. But to retreat into despair, or to think that nothing can be done but defend the status quo, will only more surely hand the country to Matteo Salvini on a plate. The situation is awful, fractious, scary even. The best thing we can say about today’s Italy is that things have been much worse before. '
    https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/3854-championed-league

    The Guardians portrayal of President Matarella as a tough operator might be missing the bigger picture https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...litical-crisis

    And RNNs analysis from yesterday is maybe a tad wonky but also gloomy on the populist extreme right Lega (I dont believe Lega are that anti EU, just playing games? and Wilpert mislabels M5S 'left' at the start)
    https://therealnews.com/stories/ital...-the-far-right

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Back from the brink . Lega were playing games it seems https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...rect-coalition

    Involved speculation I find hard to take in https://therealnews.com/stories/unem...conomic-crisis
    See also their recent Deutsche Bank analysis https://therealnews.com/stories/deut...out-inevitable
    (Deutsche Bank one of the worlds largest has been in trouble for at least a year)
    Last edited by GregTimo; 01-06-2018 at 09:55 AM.

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    'The main peculiarity is the absence of a general non-contributory minimum income scheme for non-disabled people such as the UK’s Jobseeker’s Allowance.' ...
    http://policyinpractice.co.uk/italys...m-an-overview/
    A reason why populists of both catch all (M5S) and populist extreme right (Lega) are so popular in Italy. Again there is no unemployment assistance outside contributory leaving many (and youth unemployment 45%) destitute or reliant on relatives . If it werent for incompetence/corruption elsewhere too (for all strands) it would be hard to believe the supposed 'centre left' Democratic Party never properly addressed this, so I'll put this down to yet another disconnected screw up (rationalised by austerity/prioritisng the base?). M5S /5 star promise of a basic income has to be a huge attraction and even Lega promised basic income just for the North where they are dominant now. Of course their own contradictions will likely put paid to themselves soon enough , but that's to come . I would hope that once people see the populist extreme right (in power or with a slice) make little overall difference to their lives they will go into to decline as in Finland and Denmark, but it wont happen automatically (see Hungary/Poland)

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    A dark read/watch https://therealnews.com/stories/clas...alian-politics

    More from the communist Luciana here https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/375...ana-castellina

    What she describes can be compared to the drugs/crime problem which has damaged our own society , so I wouldnt dismiss it at all

  12. #12
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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Another leftish analysis translated from Italian by the Trotskyist site . http://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article5554
    An older version was published in an odd Italian (said to be 'anti-establishment') center-left? online paper complete with many comments
    https://www.ilfattoquotidiano.it/201...ronte/4397104/

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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    New Interior minister and Lega's current chief Salvini began his career as a 'communist' (but then so did Putin and Mussolini a 'socialist' to boot ) . He is quite the scary political 'operator' https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...iving-on-fears

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/20...matteo-salvini

  14. #14
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    Default Re: Italian General Elections 2018

    Rather bad piece from our (recently defunct?) Village magazine which confused the populist M5S (Fianna Fail 3.?) with their coalition partners the populist extreme right Lega , however it is informative listening to the MEP as to why the old party system collapsed and why so many young Italians have left (quite a lot being here)

    'Fuller: Do I understand correctly, that there is currently no unemployment or welfare aid in Italy?

    Evi: We have temporary unemployment assistance only under certain conditions. You can potentially end up without state help of any kind. We do not have other kinds of assistance like paying bills for elecricity, etc. '

    https://villagemagazine.ie/index.php...tion-tomorrow/

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