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Thread: An election for Christmas?

  1. #1
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    Default An election for Christmas?

    Very distinct possibility. FG and FF have until Tuesday to patch things up. Why Fitzgerald has not gone is beyond me. Perhaps because Flanagan would be next in the firing line?

    I don't understand why the media are unquestionably accepting Leo's story that he did not know about the email. This means that he was made a fool of by both Fitzgerald and Flanagan yet he still supports them?
    The United Irishman. Updated 5/2/14

  2. #2
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Awful timing in every respect with Brexit chaos too.Fitzer should resign , it would look stateswomanlike. It's not like she has a real shot at the top job anymore? Would Adams retirement give SF a boost...doubtful. Would be Leo's first election as Taoiseach and he could sneak in like John Major fadó. Give me a mandate lads and all that baloney.All this corruption could be dismissed as a legacy problem. Anyway are FF really up for this..it's not like Martin has set the heather blazing as opposition leader.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    I think Martin is, to a large degree, being pushed along by others in his party.
    The United Irishman. Updated 5/2/14

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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Anyone for further revelations from the guards during a campaign? This whole nonsense, since the very beginning, is based on a well known situation where TDs of all colours and persuasions have needed the guards to enable them to fix things, including for themselves, since time immemorial.

    This latest rubbish is based on the well known fact that EVERY Min of Justice needs pals in the Dept for all sorts of reasons - providing the Min with political scuttlebutt, fixing things for pals and constituents, giving me advice so I need do nothing,etc., etc.

    Charlton will be the "out" Martin will back off, having frightened the sh1te out of FG and will arrange defeat of a SF motion in return for a quickie Charlton fix.

    Never forget, the losers here are US, we have a totally corrupt police management system, facilitated by the Dept of Justice.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Sunday Indo full of how we are going to be "saved from an election". I'm hearing many people say they don't want to be saved, they are quite happy to go out and put a tick in a box.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  6. #6
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Awful timing in every respect with Brexit chaos too.Fitzer should resign , it would look stateswomanlike. It's not like she has a real shot at the top job anymore? Would Adams retirement give SF a boost...doubtful. Would be Leo's first election as Taoiseach and he could sneak in like John Major fadó. Give me a mandate lads and all that baloney.All this corruption could be dismissed as a legacy problem. Anyway are FF really up for this..it's not like Martin has set the heather blazing as opposition leader.
    shes a quota minister mate shes never goin to resign and varadker cant sack her or they all be on him for been anti women!!!!!!

  7. #7
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Sunday Indo full of how we are going to be "saved from an election". I'm hearing many people say they don't want to be saved, they are quite happy to go out and put a tick in a box.
    would be great if, for once, the tick could be done without 35 posters on every pole in the country and without groups of grown men calling to houses on dark evenings
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    An election favours FG the most. So called recovery, new young media friendly Taoiseach, the stability for Brexit angle. I think they'll actually recover seats lost in the last one. The only way they'll be kept out is a FF Sf coalition. Water charges have been kicked to touch. If anything I think Leo wouldn't mind an election to strengthen his position.

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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    would be great if, for once, the tick could be done without 35 posters on every pole in the country and without groups of grown men calling to houses on dark evenings
    I will enjoy seeing a chorus of idiots traipsing around in the cold and rain
    The United Irishman. Updated 5/2/14

  10. #10
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I'm hearing many people say they don't want to be saved, they are quite happy to go out and put a tick in a box.
    Must say, that's not what I'm hearing.

    If there is an election this winter, I suspect turnout will be low and unfortunately I suspect that Fraxinus is on the ball, the right wing parties will strengthen their % votes.

    I cannot see how the broader left would want an election at this point.

    I am old enough to remember the 1992 winter election (it was the first general election that I was old enough to vote in, and while it was not a particularly cold winter, it seemed to be a particularly rainy one, from my recollection) and I pity the canvassers of any party.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Just in case we do get a Christmas election. Here's my rough prediction.

    FF 29%
    FG 27%
    SF 15%
    Labour 6%
    Greens 3%
    Solidarity 3%
    SDs 2%
    Renua 1%
    Others 14%

    It's a coin toss between FG and FF, but a low turnout should play into FFs hand. The FG/FF figures being particularly hard to fathom with FG hitting much the same polling figures as they did pre-GE 2016 and FF hitting far higher polling figures than they got pre-GE 2016. The likes of Labour are probably less toxic now than people imagine, Solidarity should lose a small bit of their vote now that the water protest are over and The Greens and SDs will take their usual with the SDs losing Baldies vote from their heap.

    In GE 2016 FG got 25.5%, FF got 24.3%, SF 13.8%, Labour 6.8% etc.

    The general background since the GE has been one of FF advancing well, followed by FG shifting up a gear with the election of a new leader. SF have generally tended to hit near their pre-slab verdict opinion poll figures with the odd poor poll thrown in. The advances in polling for FF/FG/SF seem to have come from a disenchantment with the Inds who were flying ridiculously high in the last GE.

    So, I've accepted that 7% or so will vanish from the Inds into the hands of FF/FG/SF, SF will possibly increase by 1-1.5% or so as the more anti-establishment Ind-Other vote subsides from 2016.

    FGs polling tends to run a lot higher than their results so I'm expecting a small rise of 2% or so back to their normal 27% for them based on the likely strength of FF in proportion to their opinion poll figures. A high turnout would likely flip things in FGs favour over FF, but a GE at this time of the year is likely to have a low turnout, which would mean the elderly and motivated pro-life vote who tend to support FF would have a bigger influence on the result than normal.

  12. #12
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  13. #13
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-1...rexit-complica

    Following intense pressure from Irish MPs, including some within her own party, RTE, Ireland’s national broadcaster, is reporting that Deputy Prime Minister, Frances Fitzgerald, has stepped down ahead of a no-confidence vote which was scheduled for 8.00pm tonight in the Irish Parliament. A successful no-confidence vote would have brought down Ireland’s minority government at a critical moment in the ongoing Brexit discussions.
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  14. #14
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Teacup storm over? Martin didn't have to do anything, except frighten the children.....

    What timing for GE 2018?

  15. #15
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    Default Re: An election for Christmas?

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    An election favours FG the most. So called recovery, new young media friendly Taoiseach, the stability for Brexit angle. I think they'll actually recover seats lost in the last one. The only way they'll be kept out is a FF Sf coalition. Water charges have been kicked to touch. If anything I think Leo wouldn't mind an election to strengthen his position.
    dunno about that mate id say martins top dog now after makin varadker sack the **** when he wanted to keep her....

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