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Thread: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

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    Default German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    German Federal Elections due Sunday week 24/09 . Still no swing against Merkel's CDU (who in fact gained in polls over the past 6 months). SPD are just too discredited to do it by looks and headed for a very mediocre just above 20% (they did the major austerity spade-work themselves back in the 00s) The graph in the wiki tells it all . 4 parties vye for 3rd place, unfortunately Die Linke (Left party ) has been unable to emerge from the scrabble (they look lame I'd hazard due to egghead element within attacking the pragmatic chancellor candidate Wagenkneck for copying Corbyn to Melenchon on migration) . The Greens have followed SPD into the doldrums and the centre left to left combined vote stands at 10% less than before the Schroder era

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Analysis in English isnt great, public broadcaster Duetsche Welle is as good as any http://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/ger...ction/s-100649
    Liberalish Der Speigel seems less good than before (their once detailed coverage simplified) http://www.spiegel.de/international/

    In German the Berlin ND is associated with Die Linke https://www.neues-deutschland.de/
    The also Berliner paper Tagezeitung with the Greens http://www.taz.de/
    Franfurt's Rundschau has been called centre left so SPD ? http://www.fr.de/
    As elsewhere most of the press is neo-liberal if not traditional right and there are many sources

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09


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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Nice to see Linke up a bit, not so nice to see AFD up a bit . The latter have been doing it clever with their leadership curiously copying Linke and different tacks in the West (acting respectable) and East (stirring it up like the populist to extreme righters they are)
    http://www.dw.com/en/afds-alice-weid...lse/a-40356769
    (shades of the Dutch populist right some years back)

    On another tack the Guardian gives me a headache outlining Merkels popularity and Schulz's 'lack of substance'
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-martin-schulz

    About Wagenknecht, Linke (left party) chancellor candidate and the contradictions theirin (she was caked for not pleasing the eggheads)
    http://www.dw.com/en/sahra-wagenknec...rty/a-40245663
    And more
    http://www.dw.com/en/cheers-for-left...ion/a-39203018
    Last edited by GregTimo; 20-09-2017 at 09:52 AM.

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    exit polls

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Depressing but not at all surprising as not for the 1st time populist to extreme right supporters have shown opinion poll shy . Medociocre for Linke but it might have been worse as the Lander elections had already shown the AFD most popular in their old bastions of the East , while Linke shored up in urban areas like Berlin . This is a swing right in 2 directions to the FPD neo-liberalism also .
    http://www.dw.com/en/german-election...tag/a-40660750

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    On the left unity calls. If only it were so simple, Die Linke are that already (both SPD and Greens being long worse than Blairified sadly). They are a coalition of the old ruling party makeover in the East with left social democrats in the west and far leftists whereever. In their 1st election they got 12% odd but fell back to 9ish and havent been able to spring back let alone replace the Social Democrats . The reasons are various . There is an age-ing support base esp in the East . Lately new voters and abstainers went to the AFD in the main sadly. Linke's research foundation RLS already figured that on basis of Lander(state) elections last year (PDF in German) https://www.rosalux.de/.../2016-03-14_BW_RP_ST_WNB.pdf
    They had some success getting new support in the cities but lost a lot in the East Berlin suburbs and the more rural east (they net gain 0.6%).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German...election,_2017
    They have made overtures to the SPD and there are local 'red-red-green' coalitions like the one led by Linke in Thuriniga and led by the SPD in Berlin . SPD have a far worse problem with the huge historical drop in their support confirmed with yet another fall . The worse than Blairite SPD needs to swing left and ally with Linke but it will take time and there are many diversions as we are see-ing . Rough history https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_(Germany)
    Again Rosa Luxemburg themselves are about the only source in English for analysis of Die Linke https://www.rosalux.de/en/
    Last edited by GregTimo; 25-09-2017 at 10:01 AM.

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    More than I can handle with my very bad German the Frankfurt Rundschau has the electoral maps , etc . Linke held all it's 'direct mandates' in East Berlin (where it has long dominated) so maybe I exaggerated it's problem there . AFD are creeping in as noticed last year though

    http://www.fr.de/politik/bundestagswahl/

    Linke (and esp East German) specific stuff will be here https://www.neues-deutschland.de/

    Is there a further gain for Linke since last year? Noticeably the now 'Red-Red-Green' Berlin local government hasnt damaged them this time (it did last time this happened)
    I await lots of translating, etc http://www.criticatac.ro/lefteast/se...ons-in-berlin/

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Is there a further gain for Linke since last year? Noticeably the now 'Red-Red-Green' Berlin local government hasnt damaged them this time (it did last time this happened)
    I await lots of translating, etc http://www.criticatac.ro/lefteast/se...ons-in-berlin/
    Ok now I'm more confused, but by looks the Left party paper's frequent commentator (Tom S) is talking more of the East outside Berlin . Also referenced is the internal division on migration with Chancellor candidate Wagenkneck sensibly being a pragmatist (she called for deportation of sex offenders and so on, resisted by much of the party)
    -------------------------------------------------
    ' ............ Lederer: Let us not dictate the agenda of the AfD
    On the other hand, on the evening of the election, a statement by top candidate Sahra Wagenknecht was interpreted which, with a view to the refugee stance, said that "there were also certain problems that were being left out there, in the anxiety of provoking resentment." This left him "at the end" of the Afd "to address certain things that people simply experience, that they are so."

    This is an old controversy in which Wagenknecht had already been criticized several times for not pursuing the line of her party in questions of migration policy. The cultural director, Lederer, also immediately opposed it: "A serious left can pack up if the political agenda is dictated by 13.5 percent right-wing extremes. But we do not. "

    Crash in the east to about 16 percent
    A second discussion is likely to be triggered by the results in the East, where the first figures show that the AfD brought in significantly more than 20 per cent and thus finished second behind the CDU (26.5 per cent). This was previously the domain of the linkparty and formerly the PDS. Now the comrades in the new Länder and in East Berlin have only achieved 16.5 percent. In the 2013 election, the figure was still 22.7 percent, and in 2009 it was still 28.5 percent............. '
    ------------------------------------------------------
    https://www.neues-deutschland.de/art...stagniert.html

    IMO if Wagenkneck hadnt taken that stance the eggheads would have stagnated Linke even worse and they would have dropped overall not gained 0.6% . Headwrecker but the Cologne attacks and so on need her cold hard look and fair dues to her

    Again looking at the Frankfurt Runschau electoral map (pity their site is a mess and I cant link it) AFD biggest gain was in Saxony, the lander in the South of the East where there has long been a hell of a headwrecker extreme right problem . They won 3 direct mandates on the Czech border
    Last edited by GregTimo; 25-09-2017 at 11:22 AM.

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Some regional breakdowns for Linke (and the others of course)

    Linke continued recovery in NRW to a new high 7.5% I think http://www1.wdr.de/nachrichten/bunde...l-nrw-100.html

    In Hamburg a robust 12% (+3) http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hambur...amburg176.html

    Map with consticuency results from Linke's paper (the AFD have now reached 7 directly elected , all in Saxony or neighbouring it) . Linke took the only Green direct mandate in Berlin to reach 5 (but without comparisons and close results)
    https://www.neues-deutschland.de/art...t-fuehlen.html

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    German election: Linke's own RLS analysis (in the PDF) shows them dropping (10% from 27% in the last Lander election) 7% where they lead the state government in Thuringia even , declining in every Eastern state outside Berlin (where they held solid) . More than offset by gains in the West though (the big rust belt NRW remains wimpy for them again though). A positive is they are now much less an East German party . But that is not really good. If they are to replace the SPD as the main opposition they will need to win back the support they lost to the AFD (previous RLS analysis showing AFD gaining from previous abstainers or 1st timers mostly though). Likely the SPD will probably opportunistically swing left to a sort of Milliband fudge if they have any sense at all. Again that will probably not be enough to restore badly damaged SPD credibilty
    https://www.rosalux.de/publikation/i...ag-am-2492017/

    And again the electoral maps in Linke's associated Berlin paper https://www.neues-deutschland.de/art...t-fuehlen.html
    Last edited by GregTimo; 27-09-2017 at 03:39 PM.

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Linke's paper ND now has it's coverage in one place https://www.neues-deutschland.de/lp/...swahl-2017.php
    Er their earlier map was partial results evidently and AFD won only 3 direct mandates all in Saxony , Linke held their 4 in East berlin, but came close to taking the Green 'seat' and gaining one in Saxony against the odds. Berlin the only place in the East Linke held up % wise . Losses in the rest of the East , gains in the West .
    https://www.neues-deutschland.de/art...ahlkreise.html
    Someone broke it down somewhere , it is now 7% for Linke in the West (+2 to 3) and 17% in the East (-4 to 5) , giving the net +0.6% . A lot of hard work could pay off eventually . With the SPD going into a Milliband phase? (sadly their sort of Corbyn, Lafontaine is long in Linke so there will be not be any such phenomenon in Germany ), they will have to both work with them while trying to replace them .

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    Default Re: German Federal Elections 2017 -24/09

    Ironically Berlin is the one place Linke's vote held up in the East
    http://www.dw.com/en/how-the-far-rig...lds/a-40743484
    but evidence from the local city gov election predicted the AFD creeping in narrated here(Gains in West and Central Berlin offsetting)
    http://www.criticatac.ro/lefteast/se...ons-in-berlin/

    The debate described is real
    http://www.dw.com/en/following-afd-g...ees/a-40750726
    but i dont know whether to trust what it says on Lafontaine's and Wagenkneck's stance . If anyone in Germany resembles Corbyn it is him is my impression
    An article from a Saxony Linke politician in The Left's paper carefully takes issue with them while acknowledging the problems . It is good they are debating, the issues arisng cant be ignored. But how to address them I am far from sure
    https://www.neues-deutschland.de/art...en-falsch.html

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