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Thread: The Varadkar Regime

  1. #1
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    Default The Varadkar Regime

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Ok lads ...my breathless update from the front line. Otherwise Cork North West , where nobody can hear a lefty liberal scream. I spent a couple of hours in a local hotel which was being used as Fine Gael voting centre. Hundreds of farmer types prised themselves from their Isuzu Troopers and Nissan Patrols and waddled in to vote for Simon Coveney. Coveney posters everywhere. I didn't see anyone under 40. If this is replicated - big if- he will win the membership. I didn't know most of them , barring a local councillor. They must be teetotallers. He is from Cork of course, maybe Leo has Dublin locked up?
    Love it Donal, you can smell the dung...posh stuff, of course.

    Well, it worked out nicely for Leo. He'll waffle on, (he has already) about connecting with the membership....

    He will become the xx Taoiseach, yawn. We are so lacking in confidence our media find it necessary to report vacuous mentions of the first openly gay son of an immigrant, in the foreign media. nothing better to say.

    Move over, move right. Who are Leo's close handlers/oppos? I hear various names, any pack drill on them??

    Can we have a new thread to comment on his "progress"? Maybe "heave beginning against Leo?"

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Underneath these figures lie some interesting regional/geographical variations in terms of where parties/groups won seats and where they made gains/losses relative to 2011.

    Fine Gael: Fine Gael have lost 26 seats relative to its 2011 level (76). Their level of losses tended to be most marked in the West and in the South, with the level of losses not being as evident in Dublin and the East –


    Fine Gael lost 3 seats in Dublin and 5 seats in Leinster,

    but lost 9 seats in Munster and 9 seats in Connacht-Ulster.
    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/

    Fine Gael have made a large tactical error in selecting the candidate with the least prospect of winning back the rural seats that FG lost so heavily in 2016.

    His shafting of both Enda and Simon will also have left him with two powerful factions seeking their revenge on him.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Yes...heave against Leo. Resign! Dublin jackeens pfft. I bet he never had to milk the cows at 5am. Or set fire to some scenic location. Had it too easy by far. A Dub can actually appeal to rural voters. But not if he openly despises people. As he is bound to come under scrutiny the meedja will portray his critics , especially out here , as racist homophobic troglodytes. You can imagine how this will play. If there's one crumb of comfort , it's this : nobody in Ireland , rural or metropolitan , gives a tuppeny ***** about his race or sexuality. Which is sort of cool.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    The landslide membership vote for Coveney speaks volumes ...
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/

    Fine Gael have made a large tactical error in selecting the candidate with the least prospect of winning back the rural seats that FG lost so heavily in 2016.

    His shafting of both Enda and Simon will also have left him with two powerful factions seeking their revenge on him.
    Quite, and the other comments confirm it.

    Next GE? when? what result? FG -10, FF +10, SF +? result? Mumbling and bumbling about talking to SF, SF playing hardball.....?

    Or, ffs, another FF/FG fudge?

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Probably the latter if it means keeping SF out. Or indeed Lab/ Greens / PBP. Leo is no civil war hangover. He would be quite happy merging the two Tory parties. This would keep the left out for a generation.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Yes...heave against Leo. Resign! Dublin jackeens pfft. I bet he never had to milk the cows at 5am. Or set fire to some scenic location. Had it too easy by far. A Dub can actually appeal to rural voters. But not if he openly despises people. As he is bound to come under scrutiny the meedja will portray his critics , especially out here , as racist homophobic troglodytes. You can imagine how this will play. If there's one crumb of comfort , it's this : nobody in Ireland , rural or metropolitan , gives a tuppeny ***** about his race or sexuality. Which is sort of cool.
    Another reason why openly being a cosmopolitan self-entitled anti-society wanker isn't going to catch on. He is too rightwing even for many FG people.

    Charlie Haughey was a Dub alright in many ways, though he had the 'outsider' factor of being loathed by half the establishment so...

    The one thing as mentioned above that may get him back in is governing with FF. I am sure the relevant apparatchiks are busy behind the scenes.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Quite, and the other comments confirm it.

    Next GE? when? what result? FG -10, FF +10, SF +? result? Mumbling and bumbling about talking to SF, SF playing hardball.....?

    Or, ffs, another FF/FG fudge?
    As I understand it FF have agreed to support FG until Summer of 2018 when there'll be a review. If Leo doesn't provoke them or if they don't provoke him then the deal should run until then which should allow the agreed third budget to be passed that would take the Dail into 2019. I can't quite figure how the Local Elections in 2019 are going to fit into the equation. My guess would be a Feb/March 2019 GE followed by Locals a few months later. That arrangement would allow FF form a new Govt before the Locals but not suffer a mid term backlash in the Locals.

    As I see it there are only a few party support movements possible. The Ind/Other may slip 9% in the next GE with FF/FG taking 7% of that and SF taking 2% of it.

    The main shift will potentially be from the yahoo Inds to the FF/FG block. FF should have the nous to take 4% of that, Leo's ascent to the throne makes the possibility of FG gaining their 3% share look dodgy. I can't tell what would happen to any vote share that should have been heading in FGs way because it might stay Ind or move to FF pushing them towards 30%.

    Also seat wise, there were some very large seat bonuses last time due to the high proportion of Ind candidates transferring to the parties. That won't be the case this time making it very hard for FG to hold what they got in 2016, they should have seat losses, the scale of those losses being dependent on what happens to the Ind vote.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 05-06-2017 at 10:13 PM.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    I wonder who sent Phil and why



    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Probably the latter if it means keeping SF out. Or indeed Lab/ Greens / PBP. Leo is no civil war hangover. He would be quite happy merging the two Tory parties. This would keep the left out for a generation.
    OMG,what a prospect.

    Hopefully, although he is not a civil war hangover his (typical politician) hangover, wanting to be in power, will prevail.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Just so you know what is lying in the long grass - depends on what you mean by lying....

    http://www.irishtimes.com/polopoly_f..._330/image.jpg

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Leo is no civil war hangover. He would be quite happy merging the two Tory parties. This would keep the left out for a generation.
    I think this is correct.

    Remember he dissed the memory of Garret the Good a few years' back? (who whatever his faults, was a genuine social democrat). The fact that there little or no backlash against his comments by any FG'er shows the rightwards shift in FG in recent years. There simply is no longer a social democratic wing in the party.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    Anyone got any objection to the recent posts being split from this thread to form a new "Varadkar Regime" thread ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: "Heave beginning against Enda" (Contingency Thread)

    I don't anyway.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

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