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Thread: US Presidential Election 2020

  1. #106
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH -- DAVID SIDERS: "Harris advisers plot 2020 strategy: 'The SEC primary meets the West Coast offense'": "Sen. Kamala Harris' advisers are privately discussing a rough Democratic primary strategy that would focus heavily on Iowa, but with an eye toward high-value nominating contests coming later in Nevada, South Carolina and California — more diverse states where her candidacy might resonate with larger minority communities.


    "Harris, a first-term senator, would still face significant obstacles in each of those states. But as a black woman who has also won statewide elections in California — where the black proportion of the electorate is relatively small — Harris could be well positioned to compete in both the Southeast and the West.


    "If she runs, she will attempt to stitch together a coalition of Democrats in those swaths of the country — what one adviser described to POLITICO as 'the SEC primary meets the West Coast offense.'" POLITICO
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  2. #107
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    She's not going to be Hillary 2.0.......
    oh yeah... she already f*cked it up (out of the gate)

    I am so done with BOOMERS!

    (no Kamala for me either)

  3. #108
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH -- WAPO'S MICHAEL SCHERER in King of Prussia, Pa.: "As his newly adopted party hugs the left, Michael Bloomberg aims for the center": "Wall Street billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a former Republican mayor who once spent $10 million to reelect Pennsylvania's sitting Republican senator, was an unlikely choice to keynote the local Democratic Party's fall dinner here on Sunday.


    "But when he arrived at the Sheraton ballroom, a crowd of about 500 activists welcomed the potential 2020 presidential candidate like a favorite son, mobbing him for photographs during the cocktail reception and applauding him over the salad course long before he took the stage. ... 'I can't think of anyone more misaligned with where the Democratic Party is right now,' said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who recently joined Bloomberg on a tour of technology start-ups in South Carolina. 'The party is not going to nominate someone who spoke at George W. Bush's convention.' ...


    "But if he moves forward, a Bloomberg campaign would not runwithin the Democratic Party as it exists, exactly. His campaign would effectively be an effort to reshape it, and there is clear recent precedent for electoral success by a billionaire who starts a campaign distant from his party's precepts. 'No one ever thought Trump could win, either,' Bloomberg said in a 25-minute interview with The Washington Post earlier in the day, as he flew across Pennsylvania on his private plane. 'Nobody thought I could win.'" WaPo
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #109
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH -- DAVID SIDERS: "Decision time arrives for Democrats mulling 2020 bids": "The midterms are over. So when will top-tier 2020 contenders announce, already? The Democratic Party's victory in the House on Tuesday removed a major barrier for many likely candidates, who'd been waiting out the midterms for the sake of propriety and to see how vulnerable President Donald Trump seems. Had Republicans kept the House, several Democrats would likely have taken a pause.


    "But Democrats have now arrived at a decision point, and they'll have to choose whether to announce sooner — as then-Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack did in 2006 — or wait until deeper into the election cycle, as Bill Clinton famously did in 1991." POLITICO


    -- "Coming soon to the Senate: A 2020 Democratic brawl," by Burgess Everett and Elana Schor: "The biggest 2020 campaign stage isn't Iowa or New Hampshire. It's the United States Senate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer just endured a brutal midterm election, but now he's in for an equally challenging task: managing the half-dozen or more presidential hopefuls in his caucus jockeying for position. That group of liberal White House aspirants is on track to be the caucus' most closely watched, and potentially influential, bloc. ...


    "Prominent liberals this year have mostly refrained from theatrics on the Senate floor against legislative compromises or Trump nominees — grandstanding that might have won kudos from the base but put red-state Democrats on the spot. But with the election over, some senators already worry that the chamber will get bogged down as it becomes a proving ground for the 2020 Democratic primary." POLITICO

    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  5. #110
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    In 2018 the D's were defending 23 Senate seats, the R's 10. The 2020 Senate map almost reverses with R's defending 20, D's 12, and one unknown.


    Axios....


    In private conversations after the midterms, many top Republicans and Democrats said that President Trump seemed to be heading into his 2020 re-election race in a relatively strong position.

    • They couldn't be more wrong.
    • In fact, all the big trends are working against Trump and the GOP, based on factors that are hiding in plain sight.
    • Despite the conventional wisdom, many people around Trump and in GOP leadership share this dim view.

    Here are three factors that should worry Trump and the GOP:

    1. The midterm results were actually a terrible leading indicator for him. Turns out that without Hillary atop the ticket, Midwest states like Wisconsin are tough for Trump, and Southern states with rising Hispanic populations are slowly growing more Democratic. Long term, the GOP should be freaking out about this.
    2. Trump and the GOP face two years of public investigations, coming from three different and dangerous directions: Robert Mueller, the state of New York and Congress. Two years of probing hell await.
    3. The prolonged recovery is on borrowed time, and a recession could well hit at the worst possible time for Trump — in the thick of the presidential race. Live by the markets, die by the markets.

    Axios CEO Jim VandeHei and I go deeper on each of those:
    The midterms:

    • Trump has locked his party into a white-man strategy — using the pre-midterm rallies to amp up fears of immigrants and change. The strategy held the Senate for the GOP, since this year's battlegrounds were largely rural.
    • But white men are shrinking, and will continue to, as a proportion of the electorate.
    • Think of it this way: There's not a single demographic trend in America that benefits Republicans.
    • We can see this in the tighter-than-expected results in Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas — all ominous signs for Trump's 2020 map. All have rising Latino populations, and are getting more Democrat-friendly.
    • Trump could easily lose Pennsylvania in 2020. He could easily lose Wisconsin. He could lose Michigan. It's clear now that Trump's wins in those vital states were based largely on Hillary Clinton voters staying away — Trump got fewer votes in Wisconsin than Mitt Romney had four years before. Absent one or both of those states, Trump's path becomes tenuous, at best.
    • Ohio held strong for Republicans in the midterms but that's offset by Virginia — Remember when the Old Dominion was the new Ohio" — which went from red to purple and is now undeniably blue.

    The investigations:

    • Trump — who in January will face House Democrats with subpoena power, in addition to the multiple federal prosecutors targeting him — heads into this treacherous stretch with a thin staff and unconventional legal team.
    • The Wall Street Journal reported that federal prosecutors in Manhattan had prepared an 80-page indictment of former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen, before they accepted his guilty plea. That's a vivid but tiny indicator of how many legal fronts the president's orbit could face as cases wrap up.
    • And that's just the New York branch of the investigation. Sources who deal regularly with special counsel Robert Mueller tell us he clearly is sitting on a massive trove of testimony and evidence, much of it potentially problematic for Trump.
    • As "Axios on HBO" scooped over the weekend, House Democrats are preparing to launch investigations on dozens of topics, potentially swamping a White House with rafts of vulnerabilities that have received scant scrutiny while Republicans controlled the Capitol.

    The economy:

    • When growth slows and the jobs picture darkens, Trump and the financial establishment will be left with few short-term tools for juicing the economy.
    • The tax cuts have put the deficit on course for $1 trillion a year.

    Be smart: The gravest threat to the GOP has been — and remains — demographics. Every election, like clockwork, white dominance in voting shrinks by a few percentage points.

    • Demographics don’t lie: The population of Hispanics and to a lesser extent Asians is rising, slowly but undeniably changing the politics of Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Colorado and other states.

    Ask yourself this: Did Trump and the 2018 elections help or hurt Republicans with minorities?

    • Then ask yourself this: Knowing more women vote in presidential elections then men, did Trump and the 2018 elections help or hurt Republicans with women?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #111
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Presidential map for the 21st century
    Analysis: Doug Sosnik. (Nebraska and Maine split their electoral college votes according to statewide popular vote and the vote within each congressional district.) Chart: Axios Visuals
    To win re-election, President Trump must wage a two-front war: Not only does he have to defend Democratic-leaning Midwest states that sealed his victory in 2016, but he now needs to defend against clear Republican erosion in the South and Southwest.

    • "Changing demographics and Trump have blown up the electoral map that has dominated American politics since 1992," said Doug Sosnik, a White House adviser to President Bill Clinton who is one of the best trend detectors in U.S. politics.
    • Why it matters: Sosnik projects that there could be more tossup states in the South and Southwest than in the Midwest — with almost twice the number of electoral votes at stake.

    The Sosnik map above is congruent with the point Jim VandeHei and I made in the lead of Axios AM a few days ago: The midterms showed "that without Hillary atop the ticket, Midwest states like Wisconsin are tough for Trump, and Southern states with rising Hispanic populations are slowly growing more Democratic."

    • Sosnik adds this caution, based on 2016: "The president's voters don't always admit to pollsters that they like him. And he ran better in tossup states than his national average."

    I asked Doug, who started in Democratic politics in Michigan in 1982, to parse the implications of his analysis for each side.
    Encouraging points for Republicans:

    • "Due to Obama's neglect of the Democratic Party, this has been a lost decade for the Dems. Our entire farm system was wiped out. We now have a field of candidates that are either in their 70's (Biden, Kerry, Warren, Sanders, etc.), or a bunch of early 40s, largely untested candidates."
    • "Despite the heavy [midterm] losses, Trump did, in fact, turn out his voters when he was not on the ballot — which is not something that Obama could ever do."

    Downsides for Republicans:

    • "They are on the wrong side of history [and demographics] with a white male strategy."
    • "Mueller/Southern District [of New York]/congressional investigations: What people miss is how disabling these investigations are for the president, as well as the White House staff. (Take it from me: I had six years of investigations while in the Clinton White House)."

    Bullish signs for Dems:

    • "The bigger the turnout, the worse it is for Trump. While his efforts to turn out his base worked, it also was magic for the Dems. And they have a much bigger pool to draw from than Trump."
    • "The Midwestern states that Trump carried never really liked him. His polling has sucked there since he took office."
    • "The Democrats' increasing strength in suburban areas will enable the party to not only be more competitive in the Midwest, but also expand the map into the South and Southwest."

    Bearish signs for Dems:

    • "There is no obvious candidate or even close to an obvious candidate. That's a huge problem."
    • "It will not, even under the best of circumstances, be easy to take on candidate Trump. He relishes the fights."
    • "The Democrats cannot, under any circumstances, allow the anti-Trump vote to splinter, which could enable Trump to get re-elected despite a majority of Americans opposing his presidency."
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  7. #112
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Rise of big cities push Texas to swing-state territory — maybe by 2020
    SAN ANTONIO — For a quarter century, Republicans have dominated Texas politics so much that the Democratic minority has often been an afterthought. The big political battles in Austin have been fought between conservative and centrist factions within the GOP, as Democrats watch from the sidelines.

    But Democratic gains in this year’s midterm elections on the federal, state and county level show the prospect that Texas will become a swing state —a promise Democrats have made for years — is slowly coming to fruition.
    Read the full story here
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  8. #113
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH -- ALEX THOMPSON: "Steyer takes step toward 2020 presidential bid": "Former billionaire investor, climate activist and impeachment agitator Tom Steyer will take several steps toward a 2020 presidential bid Tuesday. That will include a six-figure web ad buy on Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram, along with a full-page ad in USA Today and other Gannett newspapers outlining a political platform, a revamped TomSteyer.com and the announcement of five town halls across the country, the first of which will be in the crucial early primary state of South Carolina, according to copies of the ad and platform provided to POLITICO.



    "The first town hall is set for Dec. 4 in Charleston, S.C., and the next will be in Fresno, Calif., sometime in December, according to Aleigha Cavalier, senior communications adviser for TomSteyer.com, who also works for Steyer's climate-focused group NextGen America. There will be one town hall for each of the '5 rights' on Steyer's platform: the right to an equal vote, to clean air and water, to learn with pre-K education through college, to a living wage, and to health." POLITICO



    -- "Bernie Sanders to huddle with progressive leaders in Burlington," by David Siders and Natasha Korecki: "The Sanders Institute, the Vermont-based think tank formed by Sen. Bernie Sanders' wife, Jane, in 2017, has quietly lined up progressive activists from across the country for a three-day gathering next week in Burlington, assembling a speaker lineup billed as 'thought leaders from across the country and around the world.' ...



    "Listed speakers include New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii), Our Revolution President Nina Turner, intellectual and activist Cornel West, 'The Young Turks' founder Cenk Uygur, environmentalist Bill McKibben, writer and activist Naomi Klein, and Carmen Yulín Cruz, the mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico." POLITICO



    Iowa and New Hampshire in full swing:

    • "In the two weeks since the election, potential White House contenders have intensified their effort to recruit operatives who could help them navigate an Iowa campaign." AP's Tom Beaumont reports from Des Moines.
    • "Even before they announce their White House intentions, New Hampshire’s ambitious neighbors [from Massachusetts and Vermont, with Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey fighting for a foothold] are in the midst of a shadow campaign to shape the nation’s first presidential primary," per AP's Steve Peoples.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #114
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    What is a 'former billionaire investor" ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  10. #115
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    What is a 'former billionaire investor" ?

    He co-founded a money management company. Managed investments for institutions, high net worth individuals etc. Sold his interest and now devotes himself full time to advancing environmental and liberal political causes.
    Reputedly has spent $100M in 2017/18 on TV ads urging people to sign his petition to impeach Trump.
    Pelosi, Schumer etc. are not in the slightest bit interested in impeachment preferring to focus on winning elections.


    He may compete with Bernie and others for the progressive D vote in the 2020 primaries. If the choice comes down to would you prefer someone who inspires you, or someone who can win, and it could come to that, he'll be on the inspire side, and I'll be on the win side.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #116
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH ... THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG! -- "Beto O'Rourke changes his mind: He's not ruling out 2020 anymore," by David Siders in El Paso, Texas: "Beto O'Rourke said Monday that he is no longer ruling out a run for president in 2020, a reversal that thrilled his legion of loyal supporters while clouding an already-crowded Democratic primary field.


    "'Running for Senate, I was 100 percent focused on our campaign, winning that race and then serving the next six years in the United States Senate,' the Texas congressman told reporters after a town hall forum here. 'Now that that is no longer possible, you know, we're thinking through a number of things.'


    "Asked if his position on 2020 is different than it was before the November election, when he said he would not run for president, O'Rourke said, 'Yeah, yeah it is.'" POLITICO



    FLASHBACK: BETO told NBC'S GARRETT HAAKE in Houston during the campaign that he would not run in 2020 no matter what happened in the Senate race. The clip
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #117
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Democrats are about to hit the wildest turn we have seen in a presidential campaign: Dozens of people are thinking of running — and running early — in the rage-and-rapid-reaction era of Donald J. Trump. Oh, and they may be doing this while trying to impeach the guy they're running against.

    • There will be no Clintons (probably), no Kennedys (probably) and no Obamas (probably) — leaving a wide open field for the 30+and counting Democrats thinking about running.
    • There will be women and men; African Americans, whites and Hispanics; very young and very old; plutocrats and socialists.
    • Democratic officials tell Jim VandeHei and me that the race will be the biggest strategic free-for-all in modern political history, with a quiet war for donors, staff and endorsements already being fought across the country.
    • This process is a wonder of democracy where everyone from Oprah to Massachusetts congressman Seth Moulton can be taken seriously.

    Just this week:

    • Joe Biden said he thinks he's "the most qualified person in the country to be president" because "The issues that we face as a country today are the issues that have been in my wheelhouse", as a Harris poll showed him with a double-digit lead over the closest contender, Sen. Bernie Sanders.
    • Billionaires hit the campaign trail: Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg spoke in Iowa, and told AP he'll do everything he can to make climate change the race's defining issue. And Tom Steyer held a roundtable on voting rights in South Carolina.
    • Sanders' 2016 campaign manager, Jeff Weaver, said "a much bigger campaign" is being planned for 2020.
    • Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.), who recently visited Hollywood to pitch potential donors, was on "Hardball," talking about running.
    • Sen. Michael Bennet (Colo.) is "seriously thinking" about a bid, per Colorado Public Radio.

    Plus, Julián Castro of Texas told Rolling Stone he's "likely" to run.

    • And shortly after the midterms, Beto O’Rourke of Texas met with Barack Obama at his post-presidency office in Washington, per the WashPost. Many potential staffers are waiting to see if Beto gets in. Oddly, a dude whose claim to fame is losing a Senate race is the hottest early name.

    Among those who are interviewing for campaign staff, according to Democratic sources: Bloomberg, Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz (who has talked to former GOP operative Steve Schmidt).

    • "The fear of backing the wrong horse is huge and palpable among the small number of qualified D operatives," said one well-wired Democrat. "True also for pollsters, [general consultants], and media consultants."
    • "It’s a massive seller’s market, because everyone’s hiring and no one is signing on."

    The Democratic official close to the process sees "a dozen different routes to the nomination." Here's a peek at the closed-door conversations going on among hopefuls and potential campaign mangers:

    • "What the hell is the strategy? California early voting starts at the same time as Iowa. Do you camp out in California and try to rack up delegates? Do you do the traditional Iowa organizing? Do you justraise money so you can be on the air in the Super Tuesday media markets?"
    • "Do you try to lock down South Carolina through endorsements? Do you focus on New Hampshire retail? Your opponents could include up to three billionaires who self-finance. Others could have ... Beto-level online money."

    Be smart ... David Axelrod, mastermind of Barack Obama's first presidential campaign, told me: "One of the revelations from this past election cycle was that the candidates who won, by and large, came not through command-and-control decisions from Washington but competitive primaries across the country."

    • "The Democratic Party shouldn’t fear the competition. The last three winning Democratic candidates came through open, competitive primaries."

    Go deeper.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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