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Thread: US Presidential Election 2020

  1. #16
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    "If Michelle did run, she'd walk it...."

    Why? What policies would she run on? Would those policies get the rust-belt voters back for instance?

    This is no longer about ticking the correct boxes. Being a likable black woman is nice, but that's all it is.

  2. #17
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Richardbouvet View Post
    "If Michelle did run, she'd walk it...."

    Why? What policies would she run on? Would those policies get the rust-belt voters back for instance?

    This is no longer about ticking the correct boxes. Being a likable black woman is nice, but that's all it is.
    Seems to be a kind of wishful thinking that if the husband can do the job, the wife can too.

    Regards...jmcc

  3. #18
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    The first Democratic candidate for Prez in 2020 announced last month, a record 40 months ahead of the election.


    John Delaney is a 3 term Md Congressman in the Wash DC burbs. He would probably make a good Prez if he ever got elected.

    Everyone agrees that he's a real long shot, but no-one is willing to write him off because of his past accomplishments, combined with his substantive demeanor.
    Before age 40, he had founded and taken public two companies, that were highly regarded in their space, and voted among the best places to work.


    In his announcement speech he said all of the things, and pushed all the buttons you'd expect a D to to. He was expected to easily win reelection to Congress in 2018, but is giving up his seat to focus on 2020.


    His decision complicates matters for former MD Gov. Martin O'Malley, who despite his poor showing in 2016 was expected to run again. His early announcement may be an attempt to pre-empt an O'Malley decision.




    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign...rnd=1502359832



    https://www.johnkdelaney.com/#whats-next



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_D...nd_politician)
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #19
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    When I posted immediately above the thread view count was at 1547, now 1886, so there's still interest here, and I'll add the piece below. Had Kasich won the R nomination in 2016, I'm on record in the 2016 thread as saying I'd have voted for him over Hillary. As Republicans go, he's about as progressive as they get. He was the last man standing before Trump clinched it.

    I disagree with the 2nd last graph, and agree with the last.



    Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R) and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) — "the Johns," as insiders are calling them — have been making a flurry of joint appearances to talk about state-driven improvements to health care.
    But Axios has learned that their duet is part of an alliance that's gaining momentum toward a possible joint independent bid for president in 2020, likely with Kasich at the top of the ticket:

    • The two, who got to know each other at conferences, plan to extend their joint platform from health care to two other hot policy areas: immigration and job creation.
    • On health care (with a detailed plan to be released soon), the two have broadened their efforts to a bipartisan group that includes 11 governors.
    • The Johns' jobs plan will focus on the coming displacement from automation, with prescriptions that include trade, workforce training — and an optimistic and hopeful message, balanced with an honest admission that some jobs just aren't coming back.
    • The two are talking to major media companies about a possible podcast or cable show to continue cementing their brand. Their conversations would include politics, policy, and pop culture.
    • In D.C. in early September, the two will hold a health-care conference that includes policy input from the American Enterprise Institute on the right and the Center for American Progress on the left.
    • Kasich, who's being advised by veteran consultant John Weaver, is keeping open all his options, including the possibility of primarying Trump in 2020.
    • Nothing subtle about any of this: Kasich has urged Hickenlooper to visit New Hampshire.
    • Both are 65 and both were born in the crucial electoral state of Pennsylvania, Kasich from the Philly side and Hickenlooper from the Pittsburgh side.
    • Both are proud policy wonks, and their staffs are said to get along famously.

    Why it matters: National Dems so far haven't capitalized on Trump's record unpopularity and obsession with his base. But this is a creative coupling that'll get a ton of airtime, and maybe even traction.
    The pushback: Some establishment Dems are apoplectic about the idea of Hickenlooper teaming up with a Republican. One top strategist told me: "No Dem wants Kasich anywhere near our ticket. Sounds like a No Labels fantasy, but moderate Dems would hate it."

    • But a veteran operative emails: "Our political system is completely broken. Something big and historic needs to happen to break the logjam. I'm a big Dem but I'm for anything that ... does away with this hyper-partisanship on both sides that is paralyzing our government."
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  5. #20
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    From one of today's political newsletters........


    1 big thing: Dems begin lining up 2020 staff
    A quiet but consequential battle for staff and cash has begun among ambitious Democrats with their eyes on the 2020 presidential race. The party is likely to start with a bigger field — perhaps much bigger — than the unwieldy Republican batch that produced Donald Trump as the nominee.
    Our conversations with well-wired Democrats produced a list of three dozen names that range from possible to plausible to probable. Other potential candidates seem certain to emerge, based on who looks strong after the 2018 midterms.

    • Several have begun to actively talk to potential staff members, and a few more have put out feelers, according to Democrats familiar with the conversations.
    • It's of course unlikely that whoever we're buzzing about 1,159 days before the election ("Bullish on Bullock!") will be the correct answer.

    Breaking the potential candidates into formal tiers at this point would be silly. But here are groupings that emerged with our conversations with veterans of past Democratic presidential campaigns, as well as younger operatives likely to be involved in the 2020 campaign:

    • Watched most closely: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), Sen. Cory Booker (N.J.), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Sen. Kamala Harris (Calif.), New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
    • The classics: Joe Biden, John Kerry, Al Gore, former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley.
    • Outsiders: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee, Colorado Gov. Hickenlooper
    • Has begun seeking staff: Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Sen. Chris Murphy (Conn.), Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio).
    • Many in Obamaworld like: former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Rep. Seth Moulton (Mass.), former Missouri SecState Jason Kander.
    • Many in Clintonworld like: Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, former Ag Secretary and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro.
    • Possible if wins reelection: Sen. Sherrod Brown (Ohio).
    • Wants to be mentioned: Sen. Amy Klobuchar (Minn.).
    • Wild cards: Sen. Al Franken (Minn.), Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo, New York Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. John Delaney (Md.).
    • Non-politicians: Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, Mark Cuban, The Rock, Starbucks Executive Chairman Howard Schultz, Disney CEO Bob Iger, Oprah, George Clooney.
    • Someone Trump would have no idea what to do with, and who'd win women with authenticity and Southern charm: Sally Yates, the acting attorney general fired by Trump.

    Be smart: A huge challenge for Democrats is that the energy, action and money are on the left (the Warren-Sanders wing). But winning in 2020 will require winning over working-class, more centrist voters who helped put Trump in office. Anybody who doesn't spend their weekdays in Washington is likely to have an advantage, so watch the governors and others who can run as outsiders against the incumbent GOP.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #21
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  7. #22
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    More than six in ten (63%) Republicans say they would prefer Trump be the Republican Party’s nominee for the 2020 election, compared to approximately one-third (31%) who say they would prefer another Republican candidate.
    https://www.prri.org/research/americ...s-survey-2017/

  8. #23
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    The first TV ad of the 2020 campaign will run during the Super Bowl, in Iowa only.

    Viewers in Iowa will get a bonus during the Super Bowl telecast: The first ad of the 2020 presidential election cycle, courtesy of Maryland Rep. John K. Delaney (D).
    The 30-second spot jokingly warns that Delaney is using a dirty word as he campaigns throughout the Hawkeye State: Bipartisanship. It then shows clips of him uttering the offending word a few different times on the campaign trail.
    “It may be a dirty word in Washington, but it seems to be awfully refreshing in Iowa,” a narrator says as the ad concludes.
    Delaney told the Des Moines Register that his campaign is spending about $1 million to air the ad in four Iowa media markets over a four-week period. He added that he plans to hold a total of 400-500 events in the state by January 2019.

    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #24
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    It's like a war for the soul of both parties and should be great fun for politics wonks.

    The war on the Republican side has been going on for much longer and at this stage the once-insurgent nutter wing are firmly in the ascendant. I was thinking there was something odd about Kasich's tone/demeanor on Morning Joe the other day, but if he is seriously considering abandoning the GOP field entirely and teaming up with Hickenlooper that would explain it. He was one of the few remaining sane Republicans, Kasich walking for a third-party bid along with the current rash of GOP retirements from the House would largely leave the Republicans bereft of sane, competent, experienced operatives and leave the party entirely in the hands of the lunatic cultist base. Which in turn would mean the sane(r) GOP voters would be up for grabs.

    On the Dem side their civil war is much younger and their rebels are still the underdogs with the corporate Dems still holding most of the party machinery - though progressive activist groups like Justice Democrats have big plans to primary the hell out of the corporate dems this year. So the potential field could be radically different after November, but it's still likely to be a protracted battle all the way to the 2020 convention. If the corporate dem camp are still talking about putting up candidates like Terry McAuliffe, Joe Biden or Cory Booker then I don't think they've quite processed the lessons of the last two years properly yet. On the progressive side Sanders and Warren will probably be too old by 2020, the last thing the voters will want after Trump is another elderly, potentially senile, candidate. The Delaney thing is interesting as O'Malley could be fatally damaged by the gerrymandering issue. Joe Kennedy III might fancy trying his luck as a Macron/Ardern-style young wildcard after his SOTU response. Tulsi Gabbard is another younger hopeful who was mentioned a lot as a potential candidate a year ago but seems to have gone quiet since. But speculation at this point on the initial Dem lineup is probably pointless till we see who emerges from the mid-terms.

    So...either Trump himself or if Trump doesn't make it some other swivel-eyed alt-reality loon for the GOP; and Kasich doing a third-party run trying to collect saner Republicans, Independents and conservative Dems (which could be surprisingly successful) both seem to be fairly straightforward; and an almighty battle for the soul of the Dems in their primary season. If the Dems bottle the fight and pick some bland apparatchik corporate politician like McAuliffe or Booker then Kasich actually probably has a chance; otherwise it'll be a fascinating election campaign between Kasich and the Dem with the 20-odd% loony cultist GOP largely relegated to the "senile grandpa yelling random nonsense all through Christmas dinner" role. Which could go anywhere.
    Last edited by Sidewinder; 01-02-2018 at 10:35 AM.

  10. #25
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Kennedy/Gabbard or Gabbard/Kennedy. At the moment, that pairing could be strong enough to defeat Trump but it depends on how the economy does until the election.

    Regards...jmcc

  11. #26
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    It's like a war for the soul of both parties and should be great fun for politics wonks.

    The war on the Republican side has been going on for much longer and at this stage the once-insurgent nutter wing are firmly in the ascendant. I was thinking there was something odd about Kasich's tone/demeanor on Morning Joe the other day, but if he is seriously considering abandoning the GOP field entirely and teaming up with Hickenlooper that would explain it. He was one of the few remaining sane Republicans, Kasich walking for a third-party bid along with the current rash of GOP retirements from the House would largely leave the Republicans bereft of sane, competent, experienced operatives and leave the party entirely in the hands of the lunatic cultist base. Which in turn would mean the sane(r) GOP voters would be up for grabs.

    On the Dem side their civil war is much younger and their rebels are still the underdogs with the corporate Dems still holding most of the party machinery - though progressive activist groups like Justice Democrats have big plans to primary the hell out of the corporate dems this year. So the potential field could be radically different after November, but it's still likely to be a protracted battle all the way to the 2020 convention. If the corporate dem camp are still talking about putting up candidates like Terry McAuliffe, Joe Biden or Cory Booker then I don't think they've quite processed the lessons of the last two years properly yet. On the progressive side Sanders and Warren will probably be too old by 2020, the last thing the voters will want after Trump is another elderly, potentially senile, candidate. The Delaney thing is interesting as O'Malley could be fatally damaged by the gerrymandering issue. Joe Kennedy III might fancy trying his luck as a Macron/Ardern-style young wildcard after his SOTU response. Tulsi Gabbard is another younger hopeful who was mentioned a lot as a potential candidate a year ago but seems to have gone quiet since. But speculation at this point on the initial Dem lineup is probably pointless till we see who emerges from the mid-terms.

    So...either Trump himself or if Trump doesn't make it some other swivel-eyed alt-reality loon for the GOP; and Kasich doing a third-party run trying to collect saner Republicans, Independents and conservative Dems (which could be surprisingly successful) both seem to be fairly straightforward; and an almighty battle for the soul of the Dems in their primary season. If the Dems bottle the fight and pick some bland apparatchik corporate politician like McAuliffe or Booker then Kasich actually probably has a chance; otherwise it'll be a fascinating election campaign between Kasich and the Dem with the 20-odd% loony cultist GOP largely relegated to the "senile grandpa yelling random nonsense all through Christmas dinner" role. Which could go anywhere.
    I don't agree with everything here, but I've seen worse analysis. While the left wing of the D's are currently showing all the energy and momentum. I don't think they provided much of a lesson in 2016. The US is still a 51/49 country and because of gerrymandering and Electoral College math there is greater pressure on the he D's to stay centrist than there is on the R's. That's part of the reason why a flawed candidate like HRC overcame Sanders. Not the only reason for sure, but a reason nonetheless.

    The Federal campaign finance reports were due yesterday. We'll soon see which potential candidates are vacuuming up money. Watch Kamala Harris.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #27
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    I don't agree with everything here, but I've seen worse analysis. While the left wing of the D's are currently showing all the energy and momentum. I don't think they provided much of a lesson in 2016. The US is still a 51/49 country and because of gerrymandering and Electoral College math there is greater pressure on the he D's to stay centrist than there is on the R's. That's part of the reason why a flawed candidate like HRC overcame Sanders. Not the only reason for sure, but a reason nonetheless.

    The Federal campaign finance reports were due yesterday. We'll soon see which potential candidates are vacuuming up money. Watch Kamala Harris.
    whatever happens the US is simply not ready for a woman president.

    Definitely NOT on the Dem side,

    Defo NOT a minority either.

  13. #28
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    whatever happens the US is simply not ready for a woman president.

    Definitely NOT on the Dem side,

    Defo NOT a minority either.

    That's a pretty dark outlook. I do think both a woman and minority can succeed in 2020, but I'm not saying Kamala Harris is that person. Just that I've read that a lot of early funders are behind her. That said, a search just now returned very few articles on the finance reports which I found surprising.


    I think Kasich will be a force again 2020, either as a 3rd way with Hickenlooper, or more likely challenging Trump for the R nomination, if Trump runs again, and I think that too at this stage is an open question.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #29
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    That's a pretty dark outlook. I do think both a woman and minority can succeed in 2020, but I'm not saying Kamala Harris is that person. Just that I've read that a lot of early funders are behind her. That said, a search just now returned very few articles on the finance reports which I found surprising.


    I think Kasich will be a force again 2020, either as a 3rd way with Hickenlooper, or more likely challenging Trump for the R nomination, if Trump runs again, and I think that too at this stage is an open question.
    Absolutely NOT, under any circumstances

    back to the old white male it will have to be

    the only women that could have a chance will be a white one under the Republicans

    maybe Ivanka will take her father place in 2020 and then maybe it could happen

  15. #30
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    Absolutely NOT, under any circumstances

    back to the old white male it will have to be

    the only women that could have a chance will be a white one under the Republicans

    maybe Ivanka will take her father place in 2020 and then maybe it could happen
    Ah cheer up, things aren't that dark. The Republicans are accelerating off the cliff, big style. Trumpism is the last gasp of the Angry White 50s Dude.

    Sure they'll hang about like a bad smell for years to come, but they are a small minority of the electorate and they are going to get crushed in every election from here on out. Why do you think so many GOPers are running for the exits? The saner ones know what is coming and are bailing - let the cultists go down in flames after spending loads of money, time and stress trying to win against the tide. You might see the likes of Gowdy picking up their political career again in 6 or so years time, but right now people like him want nothing to do with the impending GOP trainwreck and subsequent recriminations.

    People just have to try and hold the line and slow down/frustrate Trump's toxic agenda as much as possible for another 9 months. After that he'll be a hamstrung lame duck...and possibly on his way to prison.

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