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Thread: US Presidential Election 2020

  1. #136
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Biden is another one that i hope would go pack his boots already ... tired of these old white men.

  2. #137
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    hi there friend!!

    Funk Bernie Sanders!

    some people simply don't know when time's up ...
    Based on what? He seems to be the most popular politician in America right now. Every Democrat candidate is just a copycat version of the real deal so we msy as well go for the man himself.

    Is that the only objection you have? Hes old and white? Youre either trolling or just pure silly.

    I find it pretty pathetic this is the only objection the American media or establishment can find to him either yet bring an old white and pretty immoral candidates herself, Clinton faced few criticisms and a rigged primary process. She was handed the nomination on a plate with little actual examination of her Łąck of morality.

  3. #138
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Forgive the Polish characters. My phone has a Polish keyboard. PAN Sanders would be proud as he is a Polish citizen himself.

  4. #139
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Based on what? He seems to be the most popular politician in America right now. Every Democrat candidate is just a copycat version of the real deal so we msy as well go for the man himself.

    Is that the only objection you have? Hes old and white? Youre either trolling or just pure silly.

    I find it pretty pathetic this is the only objection the American media or establishment can find to him either yet bring an old white and pretty immoral candidates herself, Clinton faced few criticisms and a rigged primary process. She was handed the nomination on a plate with little actual examination of her Łąck of morality.
    I much rather have them young and vigorous (white or otherwise) ...

    This boomer generation is the ******* plague in all honesty ... Hillary, Trump, Bernie, Biden,(Warren is an exception but I don't want her either)..

    We need a fresh new face .. the thing all the young'ones have done right in their campaigns is that they don't even mention the name of the evil creature that now resides in the white-house.

    PS: please do us all a favor and stop yapping about Billary if your intent is to actually discuss any US politics going forward ...

  5. #140
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    The first quarter financial reports are due by April 15, and Bernie is expected to have a substantial lead, in part because he was in early when the field was less crowded, but also because of his base from 2016. A problem for him going forward, that he did not have in 2016, is that several other D candidates have adopted some of his policies, particularly on healthcare. Although I think he'll survive that challenge, I don't see him winning the D nomination, much less the Presidency. I was an early Obama supporter, and I'm in behind Mayor Pete.


    Democrats' 2020 race is already one for the history books: There’s a tighter pack, more diversity, more authentically viable candidates, more early money, and more creative, meaty ideas than anyone expected.

    • Why it matters: This is a big, durable field of candidates with staying power — promising a long, diffuse scramble to define liberalism.
    • It is unfolding in a reality distortion field, with early money and social media attention rewarding a race to the left.

    The field has more lanes than were expected as the year began, so more candidates are likely to last until the snow flies:

    • Bernie Sanders' formidable fundraising means he starts stronger than expected.
    • Joe Biden starts weaker than expected, perhaps prolonging other candidates' runs.
    • Pete Buttigieg started as a curiosity but now is a true force. He gave a speech about gay Americans last weekend that has been compared to Barack Obama's address on race, for having the potential to "live on past its moment," as MSNBC's Brian Williams put it.
    • Beto O'Rourke's sunniness promised to make him the field's crowd-pleaser, but he now could be diluted by Mayor Pete in competing as the fresh, new thing.
    • Elizabeth Warren has announced a spate of clever, ambitious policy ideas that will keep her in the mix and conversation.
    • Kamala Harris launched with a big bounce, and California's early spot in the primary calendar gives her a superpower you should not undervalue.

    A top veteran of Democratic politics tells me: "The race has gone to full steam preposterously early." Well, it’s only getting faster and more crowded.

    • Be smart ... The Trump plan is simple: Scream "socialist!" until Election Day and make it a stark choice — and not a referendum on his behavior.
    • He’s betting the powerful swing to the Sanders left will play into his hands.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #141
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    The first quarter financial reports are due by April 15, and Bernie is expected to have a substantial lead, in part because he was in early when the field was less crowded, but also because of his base from 2016. A problem for him going forward, that he did not have in 2016, is that several other D candidates have adopted some of his policies, particularly on healthcare. Although I think he'll survive that challenge, I don't see him winning the D nomination, much less the Presidency. I was an early Obama supporter, and I'm in behind Mayor Pete.
    I think it is a great idea to have 20 Dem candidates so that the trumpster in the WH can distribute his punches equally through most of them... the more the better..

    I was never a great fan of Bernie (or Hillary) but supported him for a brief amount of time to get the Dems policy to move a bit to the left. I ended up regretting supporting him because he is another boomer that is out for himself.

    Anyway, glad to see you are behind Mayor Pete...

    so am I!!

    (not sure he will make it)

  7. #142
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    I think it is a great idea to have 20 Dem candidates so that the trumpster in the WH can distribute his punches equally through most of them... the more the better..

    I was never a great fan of Bernie (or Hillary) but supported him for a brief amount of time to get the Dems policy to move a bit to the left. I ended up regretting supporting him because he is another boomer that is out for himself.

    Anyway, glad to see you are behind Mayor Pete...

    so am I!!

    (not sure he will make it)
    I kinda doubt Spanky will distribute his punches equally, rather, he'll focus on the biggest perceived threats.......
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  8. #143
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    Here's the Q1 financial reports...... Combined D's raised $100M+


    1 big thing: Money doesn’t matter
    Data: FEC. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios
    Having lots of money at the beginning of a presidential race — or even at the end — matters much less than it did in the past, Axios' Felix Salmon and Alexi McCammond write.

    • Huge out-of-the-gate dollar advantages for Hillary Clinton in 2008 or Jeb Bush in 2016 didn't help them over the finish line.
    • There's a long history of rich people trying and failing to win elections with money: Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Linda McMahon, etc.
    • Such presidential follies go all the way back to Ross Perot in 1992, and are likely to be continued by Howard Schultz this cycle. David Koch was the Libertarian Party candidate for vice president in 1980!

    Be smart: President Trump probably could have won in 2016 with nomoney.

    • You can’t put a price tag on free Twitter coverage, free cable coverage and all the stories flowing from both.

    The bottom line: In many ways, the money primary is not important because money is important, but rather because it helps determine which candidates are taken seriously by the media.
    A bare minimum of money is necessary to staff a campaign, keep it on the road, and keep its vital functions on track — although Trump might have effectively disproved even that. Beyond that bare minimum, money tends to go in two directions: consultants and TV ads.

    • Candidates still spend the lion's share of their funds on TV ads, because that's where the boomers are, and boomers are very likely to vote. But TV ads are hard to target effectively, and they always come at a premium: Many swing-state local TV stations are happy to lose money three years in a row, just because they know that presidential election campaigns will be like money from helicopters.
    • TV ads have never been less effective in terms of persuading the electorate whom they should vote for — because the electorate has never been this polarized.

    In 2020, earned (free) media will, once again, be of paramount importance. And this time, the earned media that matters will increasingly be social — especially Facebook and Instagram — rather than TV.

    • While some people are persuaded by TV, many more are persuaded by their friends and peers.

    On the polling front, my man, Mayor Pete, has moved up from 2-3% a month ago to about 7% today.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ination_polls/
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #144
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    States have until about April 2020 to pass the type of law referred to below........

    Trump's 2020 tax dilemma
    A number of Republican Party officials and Trump advisers are studying a trend that has received scant national media coverage but could pose a jarring dilemma for the president: Will Trump have to choose between releasing his tax returns and having his name on the ballot in some blue states for the 2020 election?

    • Illinois' state senate recently passed a bill that would require people running for president or vice president to disclose their tax returns from the past five years.

    The big picture: Illinois is not alone. Per the National Conference of State Legislatures...
    "As of February 20, 2017 legislators in 18 states (Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia) have introduced bills" to require "future presidential candidates to disclose income tax returns in order to be placed on the general election ballot."
    The bottom line: None of these bills have been signed into law (yet). But it seems possible — even likely — that at least one blue state might put it in place. And that potential scenario is giving Trump allies pause.
    Our thought bubble: Given Trump's determination so far to keep his taxes hidden, it's not crazy to imagine that he'd rather not be on the ballot in a state he's certain to lose than turn over his taxes.

    • Keep your eye on this — as Republican Party officials will surely do.


    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  10. #145
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    A BnB ticket Biden/Buttigieg makes a lot of sense, except that it excludes a woman......... The coasts will go D anyway, and that's where four of the six women are from.

    Butty is from rustbelt Indiana and would likely do better with deep red voters.


    In the opening days of his 2020 campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden has gone all-in on the general election, positioning himself as the eventual Democratic nominee rather than scrapping with the 19 other wannabes.

    • This isn't an accident. Biden strategists believe the former V.P. has the luxury of thinking long term rather than scrambling for liberal street credibility.
    • Polls show a huge bump, including with African American women. (CNN: "Biden solidifies front-runner status with post-announcement bump.")

    Biden's "people" tell me they're more convinced than ever that the one dominant, ultimately unifying issue is who can best be counted on to beat President Trump.

    • And they think that's the guy from Scranton.

    The strategy is unfolding in real time:

    • Starting with his announcement video and continuing on the road, Biden has been explicitly hitting Trump, trying to make it Trump vs. Biden more than a year ahead of the national conventions.
    • Biden has been making the argument for his strength in swing states that'll matter in November 2020, not during primaries and caucuses.
    • Biden isn't getting sucked into the intra-left debate over "Medicare for All" and the Green New Deal.
    • The subtle suggestion that Biden would amount to a third Obama term offers voters hope for something between socialism and Hillary Clinton.
    • Biden is appealing now to big donors he'll need in a general election.

    The big picture: Several 2020 Democratic campaign aides conceded to Axios' Alayna Treene that they wouldn't be able to pull off the same strategy as Biden.

    • Biden, and to some extent Sen. Bernie Sanders, can jump straight into focusing on the general election because Democrats already know what they're getting.

    Be smart: Biden is applying a lens to the campaign that reflects national polls more than the left-leaning conversation on Democratic Twitter.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #146
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    First D candidate debate is scheduled for June 26-27. Then one per month thereafter. Biden's lead has tightened a bit, but generally not much change in the last month. Currently 23 candidates currently in the race. Looks like we'll be down to a more manageable six fairly soon.

    The link is to national polling. Individual state polls can throw up different results.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #147
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    DES MOINES REGISTER: "Iowa Poll: Joe Biden leads, followed by Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg," by Brianne Pfannenstiel: "The field of Democratic presidential candidates is starting to settle into tiers: Joe Biden leads the pack, and Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg are in close competition for second place, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom/CNN Iowa Poll shows.


    "Twenty-four percent of Iowa's likely Democratic caucusgoers say former vice president Biden is their first choice for president. Sanders, a Vermont senator, is the first choice for 16% of poll respondents, while Warren, a Massachusetts senator, and Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana, are at 15% and 14% respectively.


    "No other candidate cracks double digits.
    California Sen. Kamala Harris comes closest at 7%, and other numbers within the poll indicate some underlying strengths for her." DMR

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ucus-6731.html

    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  13. #148
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2020 WATCH ... THE KAMALA BUMP -- via Steve Shepard: "New polling from Morning Consult, conducted starting at the end of the debate Thursday night and running through all of Friday, now has Kamala Harris in a dead heat for third place with Elizabeth Warren. Both senators are at 12 percent, behind only Joe Biden (33 percent) and Bernie Sanders (19 percent). It's only a roughly day-long chunk of Morning Consult's weekly tracking of the Democratic primary, and the next full update won't be available until Tuesday morning.


    "But, compared to the results from the week ending June 23, the post-debate data show Biden losing 5 points, while Harris had gained 6 points. Sanders and Warren were mostly steady, but there is a red flag for Bernie: He was the only major candidate to see a significant drop in his favorability, according to Morning Consult."


    -- KAMALA'S MONEY MACHINE -- Our colleague Chris Cadelagoemails: "Kamala Harris, capitalizing on her debate-defining confrontation with Joe Biden, raised more than $425,000 over 24 hours at a series of fundraisers across California. Biden was also in the state raising money.


    "Racing to meet the second quarter deadline today, Harris' campaign raised another $2 million online in the first day after the debate, exceeding the $1.5 million she took in during the first day of launching her bid."


    -- NYT's Annie Karni and Jeremy W. Peters: "Privately, people close to the White House said they viewed Ms. Harris as 'very dangerous' and the hands-down winner of the debate on Thursday. Others said they hoped the debate would serve as a warning for Republicans — including those in the president's inner circle — who have been too dismissive of Mr. Biden's less seasoned rivals." NYT


    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #149
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    2nd Qtr financial results........

    The first 5
    There's no such thing as a "front-runner" until Iowa Democrats caucus in January, but it's increasingly clear that 5 campaigns have a structural advantage entering the fall.
    The big picture: Bernie Sanders, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris have built campaigns that can raise piles of cash — which they can use to build donor lists to raise even bigger piles of cash.
    Data: FEC; Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios (See the interactive version)
    Why it matters: The September debates require candidates to meet both a higher polling threshold and have twice as many donors as the first two rounds.

    • As of today, only the top 5 have qualified.
    • Watch at the next debate for candidates outside the top 5 — such as Julián Castro, who earned rave reviews after Debate 1 — to make a ploy for another big round of earned media.
    • Go deeper: FiveThirtyEight's breakdown of the September race

    The bottom line: Expect the field of 20+ to winnow significantly in the next few months.
    Go deeper: Keeping up with all this fundraising can be tough. Fortunately Axios' Harry Stevens built a nifty tool that automatically tracks fundraising totals.


    The bad news for all these D candidates is that last week AOC alone, never mind her three teammates, had more social media interactions than all of them combined.......
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #150
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    Default Re: US Presidential Election 2020

    An update on developments. The field of 20+ D candidates is being whittled down. NY Mayor Bill de Blasio is the latest to drop out. Several more likely to follow soon as costs become unsustainable.


    The field has split into two tiers. the top 5, Biden, Warren, Sanders, Harris, Buttegieg, plus the rest. Biden, who initially lead nationally due to name recognition, and a belief he had the best chance of beating Trump, is starting to slip, mainly due to concerns about his age. Warren and Sanders are competing for the left wing of the D party. Currently all the signs are that Warren will win that battle. That leaves Harris & Buttigieg competing for the moderate wing. My money is on Buttigieg, leaving a top three of Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg.


    If current trends continue I could see Biden dropping out around March. The age issue, and related stamina and acuity concerns is hard to overcome. The longer Biden stays in, the more his campaign seems to resemble Hillary"s. He is short on interviews with the press. Has not yet done an interview with any of the Sunday shows.


    Two poll of polls worth comparing, the national poll, and the Iowa only poll, where Warren has moved ahead of Biden.


    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...tion-6730.html



    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ucus-6731.html



    NH, NV, and SC are the three other early voting states. I expect they will soon start moving in the same general direction as Iowa. Bad news for Biden and Sanders.


    NH
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6276.html



    NV
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ucus-6866.html



    SC
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...mary-6824.html
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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