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Thread: UK General Election 8th June 2017

  1. #91
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    The polarisation of Northern politics was a deliberate design of the GFA. No point in blaming Sinn Fein for it any more than they are to blame for the situation in Iraq.

    Lastly, when I wrote here last week about Sinn Féin and Scappaticci, I did not dwell on the reasons why he has escaped the normal IRA retribution for suspected informers. Gerry Moriarty in the Irish Times posed that question and suggested that killing Scappaticci might, by itself, simply draw attention to the extent of informer penetration in the pre-ceasefire IRA.

    A slightly different explanation is that Scappaticci has made himself untouchable by taking out “an insurance policy” in the form of a detailed account of the real involvement of the current Sinn Féin leadership in the murder and terror in the years of “armed struggle”, to be released if anything happened to him.

    That might better explain the deafening silence of the “Republican movement” in relation to Scappaticci. Just a thought
    Does that really wash ? How come Donaldson didn't have an insurance policy ? Or did he, and the person/s trusted to release it have not done so ?

    There are many other possibilities, one obvious one being that the SF leadership is heavily compromised by infiltration. McGuinness was quite open about having had contacts with M15/6 that he never told anyone about at the time. How many others ?

    Sinn Fein is generally pretty quiet about infiltration.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  2. #92
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    OK .. understood...

    but can't you make the entire North a fluid border .. that is where the entire north becomes like one of our border villages in the North of Portugal... they have their local Congress (btw 3 villages) and they vote to decide to which nation-state they will pledge alliance, sometimes they go with Spain and sometimes they go with Portugal (my understanding is they have been doing it for hundreds of years, some very advanced democracy back in those days of monarchic governance, at that time their Congress would meet after a kings death to decide the alliance).... It is cool, after the decision is made all the villagers of the 3 villages place a sign in their front door to let travelers know who they are allied with at the moment....

    They are also Tax free and they played a crucial part in 'smuggling' essential goods and people at times of great distress between the 2 nation states.
    Basically it will never have an enforceable border, it's just not doable.

    God be with the smugglers.

  3. #93
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The polarisation of Northern politics was a deliberate design of the GFA. No point in blaming Sinn Fein for it any more than they are to blame for the situation in Iraq.



    Does that really wash ? How come Donaldson didn't have an insurance policy ? Or did he, and the person/s trusted to release it have not done so ?

    There are many other possibilities, one obvious one being that the SF leadership is heavily compromised by infiltration. McGuinness was quite open about having had contacts with M15/6 that he never told anyone about at the time. How many others ?

    Sinn Fein is generally pretty quiet about infiltration.
    Donaldson was clearly murdered by the State services imo.

    I do not think painting Adams or McGuinness as Touts is smart nor credible. They wound up the IRA largely in fear of same certainly.

  4. #94
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Originally Posted by random new yorker
    OK .. understood...

    but can't you make the entire North a fluid border .. that is where the entire north becomes like one of our border villages in the North of Portugal... they have their local Congress (btw 3 villages) and they vote to decide to which nation-state they will pledge alliance, sometimes they go with Spain and sometimes they go with Portugal (my understanding is they have been doing it for hundreds of years, some very advanced democracy back in those days of monarchic governance, at that time their Congress would meet after a kings death to decide the alliance).... It is cool, after the decision is made all the villagers of the 3 villages place a sign in their front door to let travelers know who they are allied with at the moment....

    They are also Tax free and they played a crucial part in 'smuggling' essential goods and people at times of great distress between the 2 nation states.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Basically it will never have an enforceable border, it's just not doable.

    God be with the smugglers.
    Precisely my point. In the scenario I pointed out above there is NO border (other than the irish sea btw), it is borderless, that is why i defined it as FLUID...


    also the Tax free privileges is good for business, they would become like a revolving door btw ROI and UK and everyone would be happy, good for ROI, good for them and (not bad) for the UK... (looks like they are pretty powerless right now if i am reading ppl comments/linked articles right)


    (craze i know! but has been done)

  5. #95
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:

    Theresa May has condemned the North to a political no-man’s land

    In case you missed it, Theresa May indicated almost complete contempt for the people of Northern Ireland and their interests when she decided on her snap election for June 8th. Orthodox analysis of her decision features the weakness of Corbyn-led Labour, the need to free herself from the grip of Tory Eurosceptic wild men (the MPs described by John Major as “bastards”) and the possibility that Labour would find a new, electable leader in the aftermath of a poor showing in the UK local elections in May.

    Although Tory politicians like to parade their great affection for the Union, their actions have brought that Union to its most parlous state in centuries.

    With no power-sharing executive in the North, and no Assembly there either, Northern Ireland is politically decapitated in the run up to the General Election in June. Voting pacts on each side of the Orange-Green divide will quite likely transform the “first past the post” General Election into a traditional sectarian headcount. One of the great ironies of the Sinn Féin abstention policy is that any chance of the non-Unionist voters in Northern Ireland having any say (or perhaps even a vital swing) in Westminster deliberations on the future of Northern Ireland and its future relationship with the Republic is reduced by every Sinn Féin success in the General Election.

    While Nicola Sturgeon can speak for Scotland and the SNP can use its votes in Scotland’s interests, Sinn Fein is struck dumb in political terms by its abstentionist policy, as are all those elect Sinn Féin candidates.

    Theresa May put little or no value on reinstating power-sharing in Northern Ireland when she performed a spectacular U-turn to seek a June election. There is no prospect now of the DUP and Sinn Féin resolving the slightly irrelevant disputes that divide them until the autumn. This means that the “cash for ash” affair, leapt on by Adams as a pretext to end power-sharing, has become the catalyst for a process of marginalising the interests of Northern Ireland (and consequently the whole of Ireland) in the political calculus of the Westminster Establishment.

    If, as appears likely, the current impasse between the DUP and Sinn Fein is not resolved this side of the Marching Season, the status of Northern Ireland as an irrelevant backwater in the United Kingdom is yet again underlined. Just as the Unionists were left alone to misrule that backwater for a half century from 1922 to 1972, on condition that it did not trouble the UK as a whole, the real Tory contempt for Norther Ireland is underlined by their seeming indifference to the crisis that they have created for its people by pursuing Brexit and leaving the European Union.

    The ridiculous thing about Tory backwoodsmen MPs is that their rhetoric about the unity of the United Kingdom is in direct proportion to their support for a hard Brexit. Very few of the “hard Brexiteers” really give a fig for the interests and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland or even for the long-term interests of unionist farmers and milk producers.

    Any general election campaign lasting six to seven weeks is fraught with risk for early favourites. So much can change in the mood of the electorate, including the onset of monumental electoral fatigue. While it does not now appear that anything can happen to put Jeremy Corbyn into 10 Downing Street, that does not mean that the Tories’ massive opinion poll lead might not fall victim to a general feeling of anger and resentment against the ruling establishment.

    In real terms, a huge number of English households’ incomes have declined in the last ten years. For millions of English voters north of the line from the Severn to the Wash, there is little or no light at the end of the tunnel of Tory austerity.

    Balancing the British budget by sustained lopping of public expenditure offers practically nothing to huge swathes of English society who watch with their noses pressed against a freezing window the grotesque process whereby the rich and the fat cats grow wealthier while they themselves must go without.

    If Theresa May can carry off an electoral landslide in spite of the same anti-establishment dissatisfaction that led to Brexit, she will be lucky. The old adage that “a referendum is a process by which you get an answer you didn’t expect to a question you didn’t ask” may yet apply to a general election which the Tories seek to convert into a referendum on Jeremy Corbyn.

    UKIP, in my view, is finished, its purpose served. Its voters were never pro-establishment; they are natural voices of opposition. The Lib-Dems could easily out-perform present expectations on foot of favourable local election results in May. The Labour vote may, despite Corbyn, prove more resilient over the next six weeks than Tory head office has calculated. It is not entirely impossible that Theresa May might simply end up roughly where she is, if not worse off.

    If Theresa May fails to greatly increase the number of Tory MPs on June 8th, she may in retrospect turn out to have weakened her own position and to have heated up the conflict on Europe within the Tory party.

    In any event, a Tory landslide could have two possible outcomes; a strengthened Prime Minister with enough support to carry a very soft Brexit through the House of Commons, or else a “tails up” Tory party in which the hard Brexiteer “bastards” are more numerous and more demanding and less tolerant of any compromise with the EU.

    It is only when you consider the studied indifference of the Tories towards Northern Ireland and the silliness of Sinn Féin having brought down power-sharing on the “cash for ash” issue (which they did with full, conscious knowledge of the impending Brexit crisis) that the enormity of the Sinn Féin miscalculation becomes apparent.

    If they continue with their intransigence and bring about a new set of Assembly elections in the autumn, Sinn Féin may increase their Assembly seats by two or three but may well find that the DUP increase their share of the seats by four or five. Northern politics would have become more polarised and more irrelevant after this wasted year of playing “political chicken”.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  6. #96
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:
    My reaction? Who cares about the political views of a multi-failure blowhard?

  7. #97
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:
    It's a rambling piece.. The usual SF bad line ( note the name check on Adams) how its all their fault from him despite the fact that practically all the parties wanted Arlene taken down and it was they and public opinion which forced SF's hand.

    Sturgeon with her huge mandate in Scotland was told to take a hike by May in regards to Scotland's input into Brexit negotiations as were the Welsh Assembly.

    NIs negotiating strength lies in its ability to threaten chaos in NI not in its ability to yap in Westminster.

    As usual MC'D and Co fail to understand the Brexit vote, it wasn't an anti-establishment vote from the less well. It was a nationalist vote from the shires and elsewhere. A vote for sovereignty and reduced immigration, end of story.

    I'd have to analyse the potential impact of a Lib Dem revival on Tory numbers but it's highly unlikely to be able to derail the Brexit nationalism that's propelling the Tories in the polls.

    If Tory/Lib Dem cuts couldn't have derailed the Tories in pre-Brexit 2015 then they're hardly going to do it in a Brexit fired up UK now at war with the Germans and French.

    He hasn't got a clue about the British.

  8. #98
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    Precisely my point. In the scenario I pointed out above there is NO border (other than the irish sea btw), it is borderless, that is why i defined it as FLUID...


    also the Tax free privileges is good for business, they would become like a revolving door btw ROI and UK and everyone would be happy, good for ROI, good for them and (not bad) for the UK... (looks like they are pretty powerless right now if i am reading ppl comments/linked articles right)


    (craze i know! but has been done)
    The border is enforceable ( was enforced before) , very difficult to manage politically but where there's tax revenue at stake Govts will always find a way to levy that tax.

    Other possible arrangements are very hard to implement politically. Unionists would rather starve in the short term than cede much in terms of North - South integration.

  9. #99
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    It's a rambling piece.. The usual SF bad line ( note the name check on Adams) how its all their fault from him despite the fact that practically all the parties wanted Arlene taken down and it was they and public opinion which forced SF's hand.

    Sturgeon with her huge mandate in Scotland was told to take a hike by May in regards to Scotland's input into Brexit negotiations as were the Welsh Assembly.

    NIs negotiating strength lies in its ability to threaten chaos in NI not in its ability to yap in Westminster.

    As usual MC'D and Co fail to understand the Brexit vote, it wasn't an anti-establishment vote from the less well. It was a nationalist vote from the shires and elsewhere. A vote for sovereignty and reduced immigration, end of story.

    I'd have to analyse the potential impact of a Lib Dem revival on Tory numbers but it's highly unlikely to be able to derail the Brexit nationalism that's propelling the Tories in the polls.

    If Tory/Lib Dem cuts couldn't have derailed the Tories in pre-Brexit 2015 then they're hardly going to do it in a Brexit fired up UK now at war with the Germans and French.

    He hasn't got a clue about the British.
    I know the UK well and visited both the shires and a de-industrialised, peripheral area in the last year. Both areas voted for Brexit.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  10. #100
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Small swings in either direction could have a big effect, or zero, if they cancel each other out.........


    With June’s snap election in mind, May’s Conservative Party is concentrating its resources on pro-Brexit constituencies. Of the 60 districts that are most winnable from the main opposition Labour Party, two-thirds voted to leave the EU, according to Bloomberg’s Eddie Buckle.
    May’s early campaigning reflects that strategy, with visits so far to target constituencies thgat voted heavily for Brexit and where the Tories need a swing in voting of less than 6 percent.
    In some places though, the Conservatives will be on the defensive. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats are seeking to recapture six constituencies they lost to the Tories in 2015 and which voted “Remain” in 2016. The Lib Dems need a swing of six points or less to take them back.
    On the campaign trail, Labour is pledging to tear up May’s Brexit strategy if it wins the election and instead focus on keeping the benefits of the EU’s single market and customs union. In a speech today, its Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer will also pledge to safeguard environmental and workplace protections.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #101
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #102
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  13. #103
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    As if she needed it, May savages the EC, to attract even more leavers.

  14. #104
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    did you ever see thir labor party leader corbin on the telly mate???? hes even thicker than kenny!!!!

  15. #105
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    Default Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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