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Thread: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

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    Default Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Sunday Times B&A:

    FF 28 (-4)
    FG 22 (+1)
    SF 23 (+4)
    Lab 6 (nc)
    AAA/PBP 2 (-1)
    IA 6 (+1)
    Green 2 (nc)
    SocDem 1 (-1)
    WP 1 (nc)
    Other 8 nc

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    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Can anyone remind me if SF has been second in the polls before ?

    My guess is that a fair bit of SF's new vote is coming from the soft nationalist FF vote, from back in the days when they were regularly over 50%

    I think that Brexit and the results of the elections in the North are going to strengthen SF's position enormously, as the issues of island and nation are firmly back on the agenda.

    Solidarity/AAA/PBP in a sorry state. With SF looking like a viable challenge for government I think all the protest parties and groups will lose votes to them, as people will be willing to give SF a try.

    Will there also be strategic voting by some to try to keep SF out ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Can anyone remind me if SF has been second in the polls before ?
    I think that they were.

    My guess is that a fair bit of SF's new vote is coming from the soft nationalist FF vote, from back in the days when they were regularly over 50%
    More likely that it is the floating vote moving and also a product of some of the adjustments and sampling.

    I think that Brexit and the results of the elections in the North are going to strengthen SF's position enormously, as the issues of island and nation are firmly back on the agenda.
    It has accelerated matters. A possible outcome is initial economic Joint Authority but presented as an economic confederacy that allows NI to continue to be part of the EU single market but as a component of the Irish market.

    Solidarity/AAA/PBP in a sorry state.
    Not compared to Labour. B&A are the crowd who "detected" the Burton Bounce when there was none. Alphabet soup that is AAA/PBP etc seems to occupy a strong niche that repeatedly votes for them. Labour has no such certainty as its collapse from 2011 has shown.

    Will there also be strategic voting by some to try to keep SF out ?
    I think that SF wants to force FF and FG to enter government together. That way, SF becomes the official opposition and could, if things go badly wrong for FF/FG see FG Labourised and SF potentially being in a position to do what Labour never could -- go into government as a senior party.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    I think that they were.

    More likely that it is the floating vote moving and also a product of some of the adjustments and sampling.

    It has accelerated matters. A possible outcome is initial economic Joint Authority but presented as an economic confederacy that allows NI to continue to be part of the EU single market but as a component of the Irish market.

    Not compared to Labour. B&A are the crowd who "detected" the Burton Bounce when there was none. Alphabet soup that is AAA/PBP etc seems to occupy a strong niche that repeatedly votes for them. Labour has no such certainty as its collapse from 2011 has shown.

    I think that SF wants to force FF and FG to enter government together. That way, SF becomes the official opposition and could, if things go badly wrong for FF/FG see FG Labourised and SF potentially being in a position to do what Labour never could -- go into government as a senior party.

    Regards...jmcc
    Sinn Fein have done well with a slow, steady progression model, which has prevented them from getting panicked by any sturm und drang attacks from the existing establishment. However, Brexit is a game changer. It may be a question of "who dares, wins" when FG and FF are both stumbling hopelessly on this (as is the British Government, but theirs is a lesser problem - so far - than ours). If Sinn Fein are seen to dodge the ball and or drop it, when there is a real and urgent need for a strategy, and unprecedented opportunities to press for all island unity, they may not be quickly forgiven.

    I like the idea of the joint economic authority (seize the ground that matters ), but do you really think there is a chance of the North dropping sterling, and the U.K. gov. aggreeing to it ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I like the idea of the joint economic authority (seize the ground that matters ), but do you really think there is a chance of the North dropping sterling, and the U.K. gov. aggreeing to it ?
    Solves a lot of problems for them (route into the Single Market. Brass plate operations for London banks and other stuff). But I'm not sure if the EUnuchs will like it.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    Solves a lot of problems for them (route into the Single Market. Brass plate operations for London banks and other stuff). But I'm not sure if the EUnuchs will like it.

    Regards...jmcc
    I'm not sure that anyone would. But it is the first suggestion I've seen other than "die! Ireland! die" that looks even remotely realistic.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Times/B&A 13/03/17: FF 28 (-4) FG 22 (+1) SF 23 (+4)

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I'm not sure that anyone would. But it is the first suggestion I've seen other than "die! Ireland! die" that looks even remotely realistic.
    It would have to be carefully packaged though.

    Regards...jmcc

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