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Thread: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

  1. #16
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Actually, I thought his analysis was pretty good and on-the-ball.
    I didn't bother to comment on his analysis..........only on his characterization of two different polls (one rogue, the other not) by the same organisation, underling how fickle he is.
    Had he said the same about polls by different organizations I probably wouldn't have commented at all.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Apparently, when you like or agree with a poll, you consider it legit, and not when you don't like/agree. That's self delusion of the first order.
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  3. #18
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Whew, what a relief from brexit

    When are we expecting a poll? €5 a week from next week, daily stuff about jobs, metro north (ffs), Coveney saying yes to abortion(ffs), Veradkar says something, mostly wrong or ridiculous, etc. Must be nearing the time.....

    So, the Red C, is it real or imagined? Every poll, imo, is affected by local stuff, even the visit to Trumpy.

    What is clear, I hope, is that the next GE will produce an(other) hung Dail, good.

    What is not yet clear, and won't be until after the 8th vote (not the referendum, but the Dail vote, if there is one, after the referendum), which will, if it is held, flush out the fuddy duddies. If the 8th doesn't die then all bets are off, the backwoodsmen will feel emboldened to sell their votes to the highest bidder after a GE. .

  4. #19
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Yeah not much will happen now till the 8th campaign is out of the way. The Brexit clown car will trundle along towards the cliff with Martin making the odd bizarre incoherent interjection, to general bemused shrugs. FF will pretend to support repeal while essentially providing the vast bulk of the resources for the No ground game. FG will, if they have any sense, just focus on appearing sober and sensible, don't rock the boat, don't be doing anything mad now, sure isn't it grand, with a few trinkets for the masses. SF will be trying to figure out who they are and what they stand for in the post-Adams era.

    The 8th vote will be a resounding defeat for the medievalist nutter squad. The pro-life campaign is only treading water now, they'll start getting their real premium Crazy on about 4 weeks before the vote, which will be sortof amusingly horrific from my nice safe distance. I'm waiting for this campaign's follow-up to the "Emulation" caper, gonna be hard to top that for full-on Mental but I'm confident they'll come up with something.

    But overall, barring some real game-changer or a sudden generational shift, we look be be stuck in this odd fragmented stalemate for another election or two yet.

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    The 8th vote will be a resounding defeat for the medievalist nutter squad.

    The what?
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    There's very little point in taking individual polls like this too seriously. They should be seen as part of whole polling picture.

    Outside of extraordinary events wild swings of 3-5% in party support from one poll to the next should be seen as inaccuracies that are best ignored. The polling figures of the smaller parties are often ridiculous. Not so long ago Solidarity ( AAA/PBP ) were at a silly 9% in one poll, the same polling company had them down to a ludicrous 1% six months later.

    Different polling companies seem to have substantially different trends to their polling. B&A regularly have huge percentage swings in their polls, whereas Red C tend to have a stable model with very few wild swings at all.

    The last 6 months polling isn't hugely different from the months of polling pre-GE 2016. Those pre-GE 2016 polls were well wide of the GE results.

    What has changed since then though is that both FG and FF each have advanced a few percentage points at the expense of the Ind-Other and SF and Labour are polling much the same as they were in early 2016.

    Looking at it in an unbiased as I can muster way, I see the big picture electorally as follows.

    • Public anger at the Govt is no longer anywhere near the levels it was pre-GE 2016.

    • The repeal the 8th referendum will have very little effect on the next GE because it will all be done and dusted by then.

    • FGs poll figures tend to be higher than their GE results, with FF being the opposite.

    • Enda Kenny's leadership of FG was a drag on FGs potential GE vote. Varadkar and Coveney make a much more appealing leadership team than Kenny and Noonan ( two characters who happened to have delivered the two lowest FG GE results in their history).

    • FG will very likely increase their percentage vote on their 2016 figure. Getting FG over 30% would be an impossible task IMO and FGs current high polling figures are most likely a result of FG leaning voters feeling very positive about voting FG and plumping for FG in opinion polls rather than declaring themselves undecided. The opposite is likely for all others as the other parties and Inds are struggling to gain voters attention. I expect them to increase their GE 2016 vote share by about 3%

    • FFs support shouldn't be underestimated because they get their vote out and because they've hit genuinely high polling figures since GE 2016. They too are likely to increase their vote by up to 3%.

    • SF are on course to secure approximately the same vote share +\- 1% that they picked up in GE 2016. They could easily increase their vote if they spent more money and time supporting their candidates, but there's no sign yet that SF are ready to spend big to boost their vote share.

    • Labour are also on course to secure approximately the same vote share +\- 1% that they picked up in GE 2016. They were despised in 2016 as much as FF were in 2011. Anger at them will have dissipated and their transfer friendliness will improve hugely, but they are also looking very old and stale.

    • The small parties and Inds look likely to take a tumble, although not as big a tumble as the polls are predicting. Their strength is at individual constituency level where they have a much bigger pulling power than they do nationally.

    • Although FG and FF will increase their vote shares they are unlikely to make substantial gains in seat numbers because the big Ind vote last time gave them a huge transfer seat bonus as the many minor Inds were eliminated.

    • FG which was already very strong in Dublin in GE 2016 now needs to make big inroads in the border counties and West to advance significantly in seat numbers. Brexit is the big issue in the battle between FG and FF for number one spot after the next GE.

    • FF have not played the Brexit game well at all, their cynical politicking over the matters has been quite unsuccessful in comparison to FGs playing of the nationalist card re Brexit. FF need FG to stumble over Brexit but the extended negotiation period means FG should be through the next GE before Brexit can trip them up.

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    Ha! You're sooooo weak!
    You don't even have the discipline to ignore me, like you said you would.


    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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