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Thread: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

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    Default Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Independents: 10 per cent (-4)

    AAA-PBP: 6 per cent (+2)

    Green Party: 4 per cent (n/c)

    Labour: 4 per cent (-1)

    Independent Alliance: 3 per cent (n/c)

    Social Democrats: 3 per cent (-1)

    Renua: 1 per cent (n/c)

    https://www.businesspost.ie/politics...-c-poll-380485

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Aha, taken after or before Inda's "decision"??

    +5% for SF? No obvious reason for that, like Adams resigning, is it just "agin" the FF/FG nonsense?

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Aha, taken after or before Inda's "decision"??

    +5% for SF? No obvious reason for that, like Adams resigning, is it just "agin" the FF/FG nonsense?
    It's more to do with a natural correction after SF being way too low in the last Red C @14%.

    With these polls you've got to look past the silly figures. For instance FF at 33% in last week's Sindo is well off what they could realistically be at this stage.

    Since they started to quote all the smaller parties the figures are now all over the place.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Nice to see the seeming significant left swing. Not the worst poll, at least SF are bouncy and seemingly picking up the slack. But Independents down again (presumably that is Ind+other). Nothing can be taken for granted anymore . Is there a more fickle FF vote now I wonder or is someone's methodology out ? Red Sea themselves admit what a dodgy science it is . A pity we couldnt have come up with another middle left alternative by now , SF are now it for most people
    http://www.redcresearch.ie/can-rely-polls-anymore/
    Last edited by GregTimo; 26-02-2017 at 10:31 AM.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    Nice to see the seeming left swing. Not the worst poll, at least SF are bouncy and seemingly picking up the slack. But Independents down again (presumably that is Ind+other). Nothing can be taken for granted anymore . Is there a more fickle FF vote now I wonder or is someone's methodology out ? Red Sea themselves admit what a dodgy science it is http://www.redcresearch.ie/can-rely-polls-anymore/
    The emergence of Sinn Fein electorally, and the shrinkage of the FF/FG vote, is the biggest consistent shift in the last 30 years.

    I'm not sure how much it can be seen as a shift to the left, much as I would like it to be, given that Labour has collapsed and Sinn Fein is only mildly leftish, and more nationalist/populist.

    Edit: If it is right, AAA-PBP on 6% is also, if long term, a significant change. Not so long since SF was at that level.

    I think some people are too inclined to only look from poll to poll, and to forget what a seismic shift this is from the overwhelming majority FF governments that have dominated much of the history of the Republic.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 26-02-2017 at 11:22 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    FG must be a bit disappointed they got no bounce from all the media focus on the leadership. But it may come when Kenny leaves the scene. Theres no real option but SF out here in North Cork , Greg. But , like C.Flower ,I have deep misgivings about their claims to be left wing.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    FG must be a bit disappointed they got no bounce from all the media focus on the leadership. But it may come when Kenny leaves the scene. Theres no real option but SF out here in North Cork , Greg. But , like C.Flower ,I have deep misgivings about their claims to be left wing.
    For me it's not just I have misgivings, but I'm internationalist aspiring and hoped for something more suitable . But I have to hope SF dont work out so bad , they are the reality, because of our weakness . At least they affiliated to the euro left and that

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    SF is "leftish" more so than any other significant opposition grouping.

    For me, I hope this poll indicates that enough of the potential electorate are getting worried that indications of FF support mean more tweedle dum stuff.

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    Default Irish Times IPSOS-MRBI 2-3-2017 FF 29%, FG 28%, SF 21%, Labour 4%, Inds 18%.

    Might as well throw that up here for comparison.

    Irish Times IPSOS-MRBI 2-3-2017 FF 29%, FG 28%, SF 21%, Labour 4%, Inds 18%.


    An opinion poll which seems to confirm a trend of voters opting more and more for the big three parties as Labour and the Ind-Others show a catastrophic drop off in just over a year since the GE.

    Don't knows were at 20% so there may be hope for the smaller parties and Inds that their lost support may just be uncertain as to who to support at the moment.


    Dublin

    23 FF
    29 FG
    17 SF
    5 LAB
    25 INDS


    ROL

    29 FF
    26 FG
    24 SF
    3 LAB
    18 INDS


    Munster

    29 FF
    33 FG
    20 SF
    4 LAB
    14 INDS


    Conn/Ulster

    39 FF
    22 FG
    25 SF
    3 LAB
    11 INDS


    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/polit...imbs-1.2994336

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    An ok poll for SF, bearing in mind their recent troubles and infighting, disastrous for the left in general. The left vote seems to be gravitating to SF at this point.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    The last RedC had FF UP three points which was likely a rogue poll so the big 5% FF drop in this one is (probably) just a reversion to the true state of affairs. FF basically stuck on their fanatically-loyal tribal base plus the moron/sucker element of the floating vote. The sniping over Brexit isn't helping them. Martin's continued insistence on regularly trotting out bonkers 1980s partitionist anti-SF rhetoric isn't getting any traction. They can't use their favourite tactic of populist economic promises cos most of the electorate are well aware of how well that worked out last time and there's still too many Ahern acolytes and hangovers in the FF ranks. And the longer they are out of power the less of a grip on doling out cosy perks to their supporters they will have.

    But the nature of FF tribalism being what it is, they'll always be around for another generation or two, slowly dwindling away as the Believers gradually get older and shuffle off.

    SF's seem to have a problem in Dublin where their support is significantly lower than in the other regions. I'm not surprised by this at all given the prevalence of anti-Nordie sentiment in certain parts of Dublin. But will Adams retiring and Mary Lou taking over help improve SF's image/electability in Dublin? A few extra points in the capital could have a significant effect on seats won in the next GE. Their upwards momentum does appear to have stalled in the mid/high teens...but then they've been focused on the endless "Will Gerry Retire" drama for about three years. Time for a bit of a shake-up and freshen-up of policies and personnel if they want to continue improving. They don't actually seem to have much of a grip on the issues of concern to the younger generations though. In serious danger of stagnating if they don't get the finger out.

    FG doing well with keeping their core support on board along with the bulk of middle-class and middle-ground voters. If they can consolidate a few more points of support and get to the mid/high 30s then they will have succeeded in their decades-long dream of becoming the new FF in electoral terms and can look forward to being in power more often than not. Varadkar and Coveney have done a decent job so far on Brexit, and have kept the Charlie Flanagan-style loony Empire Loyalist wing firmly out of the media. If they can steer that issue home to a reasonably good conclusion, I think they'll be forgiven a lot of minor mistakes. Unless they, being FG, get carried away with hubris and arrogance and go full Thatcherite on the economy/public services of course. Sometimes FG just can't help themselves. But currently in a good position, slow and steady and keep the head wins this race in the long term for FG.

    Labour have the same issue as FF. A solid core of support made up of ageing rich Boomers who were students in the 1970s. Like FF, they'll hang around in certain constituencies for another 20 years, maybe sometimes make up the numbers in some coalition or other. But they are done, relevance is long over, and their tired outdated rhetoric and worldview just aren't going to appeal to Millenials and GenXers. They'll trade off the (quite well off) base for as long as it continues to bring in the paycheques, then quietly fold.

    There's a widely scattered left-leaning bloc outside of Lab. Left-Populist Indos, Greens, PBP, SDs, whatever cover name the Socialist Party are trading under this week...there's another what 8-9% of the vote in total that is casting about looking for a home. A cuddly Mary Lou SF might be able to peel off a point or two of that, but most of it is fairly hardline anti-nationalist anti-republican Left that will never vote for SF (or FF). I suspect in the next GE ultimately most of the candidates from this rag-bag of fringe parties will be eliminated early, they'll mainly transfer to one another so depending on the order of elimination most of those votes will end up non-transferable, but the party that will actually benefit most is...FG. So this group will pick up a couple of seats here and there where they have well-known candidates but their main effect on Government formation will be that approx extra 3%ish they will end up providing to FG candidates chasing those crucial 4th and 5th seats.

    Actually edging closer to the next Govt being FG minority with a confidence & supply arrangement with....SF. Yeah I know it sounds mad but these are mad times. What would have been absurd and unthinkable just three years ago is now, still probably unlikely alright - but not implausible, and getting a smidgen more likely as the months roll by.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Over on the Darkside, a there was a graph with all polls posted a few months ago. There's a nasty cyclical pattern to the way that some parties peak and trough according to which pollster is doing the poll. This seems to be an artifact of the pollster's "adjustment" methodology. RedC didn't do itself any favours with its pre-2016 GE 80% likelihood of voting and the Labour support seems remarkably steady for what is a fringe party. The other factor in this poll is that most of the politicians have been absent on their latest holiday junkets for Saint Patrick's day and the media focus has been on "president" Varadkar. FF is in a bit of trouble as Martin's volte-face on the referendum hasn't paid off and his creepy Montgomery Burns image just doesn't appeal to a younger electorate. Loss of younger floating votes to SF could be a problem for FF. However, the sample size is too small to reliably track anything at a local level.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    The last RedC had FF UP three points which was likely a rogue poll so the big 5% FF drop in this one is (probably) just a reversion to the true state of affairs.
    Apparently, when you like or agree with a poll, you consider it legit, and not when you don't like/agree. That's self delusion of the first order.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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    Default Re: Red C/SBP 26/02/17: Fianna Fáil: 26 % (-1) Fine Gael: 24 % (n/c) Sinn Féin: 19 % (+5)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    Apparently, when you like or agree with a poll, you consider it legit, and not when you don't like/agree. That's self delusion of the first order.
    Actually, I thought his analysis was pretty good and on-the-ball.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

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